EPTOn January 23 2012 13:28 ReignFayth wrote:
its exactly the same thing on the long run though.....
its exactly the same thing on the long run though.....
ye but hes saying winning 2/3 games != winning 2/3 series
[$1000] BO31 KiWiKaKi vs CatZ - Page 21
| Forum Index > StarCraft 2 Tournaments |
|
peidongyang
Canada2084 Posts
ye but hes saying winning 2/3 games != winning 2/3 series | ||
|
ROOTFayth
Canada3351 Posts
On January 23 2012 13:39 peidongyang wrote: ye but hes saying winning 2/3 games != winning 2/3 series it is exactly the same when u lay down odds | ||
|
Ruscour
5233 Posts
 | ||
|
RooStaR
United States58 Posts
On January 23 2012 13:28 ReignFayth wrote: its exactly the same thing on the long run though..... No it's not the same. Catz could win 33% of the games while winning non of the best of 31s. If they played 10 best of 31 matches and the score was the same every time, that would mean that Kiwi won all ten matchups. Your odds of 2-1 would be way off then. Catz would actually have to win a third of the matchups for your odds to correct. Your odds were given on the entire matchup not the individual games. It is a HUGE difference. | ||
|
Dubsy
Canada186 Posts
On January 23 2012 13:28 ReignFayth wrote: its exactly the same thing on the long run though..... Tis true. That's like saying a college basketball team loses 86-43 and saying the game should be handicapped at 2:1. They scored 33% of the points. Sure as fuck doesn't mean they'll win 33% of the time. | ||
|
ROOTFayth
Canada3351 Posts
| ||
|
Mohdoo
United States15742 Posts
So Catz lost $1,000 in one day? | ||
|
ROOTFayth
Canada3351 Posts
$1550 | ||
|
Dubsy
Canada186 Posts
On January 23 2012 14:42 ReignFayth wrote: ok I'll stop discussing gambling with sc players :D I think I'd really like to do some capping against you  I just think thats one of the most hilarious brags about a line I've ever seen haha. You totally whiffed on it and then claim you nailed it and pretend like you have an explanation. But hey if you wanna be a successful gambler without knowledge of basic math or stats, more power to you. Maybe it is best you don't discuss gambling with SC players. Some of them are pretty sharp  | ||
|
ROOTFayth
Canada3351 Posts
if catz wins 16 games in a row, he wins 1 serie, then he may lose 32 games in a row and the series would be at 2-1 with the exact same ratio | ||
|
Dubsy
Canada186 Posts
Come on now... There is no way you think that's serious statistics... The odds of Catz winning 16 in a row (I'm assuming you mean he's capable of winning 1 out of 3, not 1 out of 2 like you said) is: 1.977E-8. That's like .000002% or something. That's not very high. | ||
|
Jacobs Ladder
United States1705 Posts
On January 23 2012 14:42 ReignFayth wrote: ok I'll stop discussing gambling with sc players :D Well, its not like you know about gambling or anything . | ||
|
westhebest
United States6 Posts
Let's assume that Catz's probability of winning a game is 1/3. So if you offered 2:1 odds for those that bet on Catz, you'll break even. Let's use a BO3 as an example. W W W - 1/27 W W L - 2/27 W L W - 2/27 L W W - 2/27 W L L - 4/27 L W L - 4/27 L L W - 4/27 L L L - 8/27 To clarify, if he wins the first two games, he wins the series regardless of what happens in the third game (WWW+WWL = 1/9 = 1/3*1/3). I just stated all 8 possibilities to make it easier to see Adding up the top 4 situations where Catz wins the BO3, i.e. wins 2 games, you get 7/27 ~25.9%. Adding up the bottom 4 where Kiwi wins BO3, you get 20/27 ~74.1%. Dunno if I explained this right. Please someone verify or correct me. | ||
|
Tanukki
Finland579 Posts
| ||
|
Dubsy
Canada186 Posts
That means Kiwi wins a Bo3 ~74% of the time. ie your EV on a $100 wager becomes: $50*.74 + ($100)*.26 = $11 Betting $50 on Catz: $100*.26 + ($50*.74) = ($11). A good handicap gets the EV's as close to zero as possible. A longer series reduces variance and increases the likelihood Kiwi wins which makes a 2:1 line even worse every time the series is extended. And 31 is a long ass series. You can see this intuitively because although he only has a 26% to win a Bo3, he has a 33% chance of winning a Bo1 (obviously). The longer it is the more skewed it gets. | ||
|
nGBeast
United States914 Posts
| ||
|
jtbem
Canada1404 Posts
| ||
|
Liquid`Nazgul
22427 Posts
if catz is 1:2 odds to win on a single game (as the result shows) then his odds to win a bo31 are really, really horrible and nothing close to 1:2. would be fun to run this by some smart math people. | ||
|
ROOTFayth
Canada3351 Posts
so what we would have to run it as in 33% x 33% x 33% etc.? or then that would only be in a row | ||
|
Bandino
United States342 Posts
On January 23 2012 16:14 Liquid`Nazgul wrote: fayth stick to poker!!! if catz is 1:2 odds to win on a single game (as the result shows) then his odds to win a bo31 are really, really horrible and nothing close to 1:2. would be fun to run this by some smart math people. I think it is just simple statistics. He has a 33% chance to win every match, and needs to win at least 16 times to win a bo31. You just to a cumulative binomial condition and 31 for the number of trials, greater than or equal to 16 for the number of successes and you get 2.456%. I could be wrong though any other suggestions? | ||
| ||
