• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 15:46
CEST 21:46
KST 04:46
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
Team TLMC #5: Vote to Decide Ladder Maps!0[ASL20] Ro8 Preview Pt1: Mile High14Team TLMC #5 - Finalists & Open Tournaments2[ASL20] Ro16 Preview Pt2: Turbulence10Classic Games #3: Rogue vs Serral at BlizzCon10
Community News
Weekly Cups (Sept 15-21): herO Goes For Four2StarCraft II 5.0.15 PTR Patch Notes211BSL 2025 Warsaw LAN + Legends Showmatch4Weekly Cups (Sept 8-14): herO & MaxPax split cups4WardiTV TL Team Map Contest #5 Tournaments1
StarCraft 2
General
Question about resolution & DPI settings SC2 Why Storm Should NOT Be Nerfed – A Core Part of Pr StarCraft II 5.0.15 PTR Patch Notes Weekly Cups (Sept 15-21): herO Goes For Four Team TLMC #5: Vote to Decide Ladder Maps!
Tourneys
Monday Nights Weeklies RSL: Revival, a new crowdfunded tournament series SC2's Safe House 2 - October 18 & 19 Stellar Fest KSL Week 80
Strategy
Custom Maps
External Content
Mutation # 492 Get Out More Mutation # 491 Night Drive Mutation # 490 Masters of Midnight Mutation # 489 Bannable Offense
Brood War
General
Old rep packs of BW legends BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/ BW General Discussion [ASL20] Ro8 Preview Pt1: Mile High ASL ro8 Upper Bracket HYPE VIDEO
Tourneys
[ASL20] Ro8 Day 1 BSL 2025 Warsaw LAN + Legends Showmatch [Megathread] Daily Proleagues [ASL20] Ro16 Group D
Strategy
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Muta micro map competition
Other Games
General Games
Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread Nintendo Switch Thread Path of Exile Borderlands 3 General RTS Discussion Thread
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion LiquidDota to reintegrate into TL.net
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread
Community
General
Russo-Ukrainian War Thread Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine US Politics Mega-thread The Big Programming Thread UK Politics Mega-thread
Fan Clubs
The Happy Fan Club!
Media & Entertainment
Movie Discussion! [Manga] One Piece Anime Discussion Thread
Sports
Formula 1 Discussion 2024 - 2026 Football Thread MLB/Baseball 2023
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Linksys AE2500 USB WIFI keeps disconnecting Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread High temperatures on bridge(s)
TL Community
BarCraft in Tokyo Japan for ASL Season5 Final The Automated Ban List
Blogs
[ASL20] Players bad at pi…
pullarius1
Kendrick, Eminem, and "Self…
Peanutsc
Too Many LANs? Tournament Ov…
TrAiDoS
I <=> 9
KrillinFromwales
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 2170 users

[$1000] BO31 KiWiKaKi vs CatZ - Page 22

Forum Index > StarCraft 2 Tournaments
Post a Reply
Prev 1 20 21 22 23 Next All
ROOTFayth
Profile Joined January 2004
Canada3351 Posts
January 23 2012 07:31 GMT
#421
2.4% lol......
qazadex
Profile Joined October 2010
Australia473 Posts
January 23 2012 07:37 GMT
#422
On January 23 2012 16:28 Bandino wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 23 2012 16:14 Liquid`Nazgul wrote:
fayth stick to poker!!!

if catz is 1:2 odds to win on a single game (as the result shows) then his odds to win a bo31 are really, really horrible and nothing close to 1:2. would be fun to run this by some smart math people.


I think it is just simple statistics. He has a 33% chance to win every match, and needs to win at least 16 times to win a bo31. You just to a cumulative binomial condition and 31 for the number of trials, greater than or equal to 16 for the number of successes and you get 2.456%. I could be wrong though any other suggestions?

Yeah, you are correct. I did a bit of binomial analysis of winrate graphically a while ago, but I never went up to Best of 31.
mindspike
Profile Blog Joined December 2002
Canada1902 Posts
January 23 2012 07:41 GMT
#423
Yes, its 2.4% given a 33 percent success per trial and a condition of at least 16 successes.

Calculator for those who are not good at math:

http://stattrek.com/tables/binomial.aspx
zerg/human - vancouver, canada
ROOTFayth
Profile Joined January 2004
Canada3351 Posts
January 23 2012 07:41 GMT
#424
ROOTFayth
Profile Joined January 2004
Canada3351 Posts
January 23 2012 07:55 GMT
#425
well I guess I was wrong, I must just be a natural at knowing odds without knowing why

cuz obviously I knew I wasn't breaking even or else I wouldn't have bothered betting
Blennd
Profile Joined April 2011
United States266 Posts
January 23 2012 07:57 GMT
#426
Fayth, let's play "pick a number 1-3", where you win if you pick right, I win if you pick wrong. I'll give you the great deal of 2.1:1 odds. Best of 31. PM me for action.
ROOTFayth
Profile Joined January 2004
Canada3351 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-01-23 07:58:26
January 23 2012 07:58 GMT
#427
we can play heads up at poker if you want

i'll pay you 20$/hour

PM me for action
Geordie
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United Kingdom653 Posts
January 23 2012 07:58 GMT
#428
Who won?
ROOTFayth
Profile Joined January 2004
Canada3351 Posts
January 23 2012 08:04 GMT
#429
On January 23 2012 16:57 Blennd wrote:
Fayth, let's play "pick a number 1-3", where you win if you pick right, I win if you pick wrong. I'll give you the great deal of 2.1:1 odds. Best of 31. PM me for action.

I'll take it only if it's BO1 ~_~
FreedonNadd
Profile Joined August 2010
Austria573 Posts
January 23 2012 08:17 GMT
#430
Catz, you should play next Minigun or Destiny. Would make perfect sense.
Some people wear Superman pajamas, but Superman has Day[9] pajamas.
kukarachaa
Profile Joined February 2011
United States284 Posts
January 23 2012 09:14 GMT
#431
On January 23 2012 16:58 ReignFayth wrote:
we can play heads up at poker if you want

i'll pay you 20$/hour

PM me for action


whats stakes, what games and where o_O
nekuodah
Profile Joined August 2010
England2409 Posts
January 23 2012 09:31 GMT
#432
On January 23 2012 16:58 Geordie wrote:
Who won?


Kiwi 16-8 iirc
ROOTFayth
Profile Joined January 2004
Canada3351 Posts
January 23 2012 09:32 GMT
#433
anything from 2/4 to 5/10 on stars
tofubeans
Profile Joined January 2011
United States794 Posts
January 23 2012 11:44 GMT
#434
any vods from kiwi's POV?
KicKDoG
Profile Joined December 2003
Sweden765 Posts
January 23 2012 12:23 GMT
#435
On January 23 2012 16:58 ReignFayth wrote:
we can play heads up at poker if you want

i'll pay you 20$/hour

PM me for action


I'd be scared playing you on poker >_<


to topic: great showmatches Hope they enjoyed it! Wel catz lost quite a lot of money
http://www.twitter.com/KicKDoG_LoL baylife plox?
Shinobi1982
Profile Joined January 2011
1605 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-01-23 12:50:07
January 23 2012 12:49 GMT
#436
On January 23 2012 16:58 ReignFayth wrote:
we can play heads up at poker if you want

i'll pay you 20$/hour

PM me for action

Isn't 20$/h very low if you want to play in the range of 2/4 - 5/10? At least offer something in the range of 100$ for 2/4 game and 500$ for 5/10.
And no I'm not interested even at those rates :D.
Train like an animal, eat like a horse, sleep like a baby, grow like a weed.
Sumahi
Profile Blog Joined January 2012
Guam5609 Posts
January 23 2012 13:08 GMT
#437
Damn, I really wanted to watch this over the weekend, can't believe I missed it.
Startale <3, ST_July <3, HongUn <3, Savior <3, Gretorp <3, Nada <3, Rainbow <3, Ret <3, Squirtle <3, Bomber <3
Cereb
Profile Joined November 2011
Denmark3388 Posts
January 23 2012 13:49 GMT
#438
On January 23 2012 22:08 Sumahi wrote:
Damn, I really wanted to watch this over the weekend, can't believe I missed it.



VoDs are up

Atleast on Catz Stream, haven't checked Kiwi's.
"Until the very very top in almost anything, all that matters is how much work you put in. The only problem is most people can't work hard even at things they do enjoy, much less things they don't have a real passion for. -Greg "IdrA" Fields
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
January 23 2012 15:55 GMT
#439
I don't know who lost the most in this thread.
Catz or Fayth.

lol.
I had a good night of sleep.
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland25754 Posts
January 23 2012 16:08 GMT
#440
On January 23 2012 14:49 Dubsy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 23 2012 14:42 ReignFayth wrote:
ok I'll stop discussing gambling with sc players :D


I think I'd really like to do some capping against you

I just think thats one of the most hilarious brags about a line I've ever seen haha. You totally whiffed on it and then claim you nailed it and pretend like you have an explanation. But hey if you wanna be a successful gambler without knowledge of basic math or stats, more power to you.

Maybe it is best you don't discuss gambling with SC players. Some of them are pretty sharp

This made me laugh lol, I think earlier on somebody linked to Fayth's poker profile and he'd made like a 60k dollar payout at some tournament, and doubtless makes some from just online poker. I'd been interested to try it but always neglected to as I'm pretty terrible at maths, but now I may just give it a go

Awesome series, also interesting to see how versatile and not-terrible proxy hatches are, blew my mind lol
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
Prev 1 20 21 22 23 Next All
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Monday Night Weeklies
16:00
#24 PTR Edition
RotterdaM1272
TKL 336
IndyStarCraft 318
SteadfastSC269
ZombieGrub171
Liquipedia
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
RotterdaM 1272
TKL 336
IndyStarCraft 318
SteadfastSC 269
ZombieGrub171
MaxPax 130
UpATreeSC 84
JuggernautJason79
StarCraft: Brood War
Britney 27557
Calm 3130
Rain 1290
Dewaltoss 162
Soulkey 160
ggaemo 135
firebathero 121
Backho 60
scan(afreeca) 36
Aegong 30
[ Show more ]
Shine 21
NaDa 5
Dota 2
Fuzer 297
Counter-Strike
apEX6576
ScreaM1905
shoxiejesuss1291
Stewie2K241
Heroes of the Storm
Khaldor177
Other Games
Grubby3560
FrodaN1836
B2W.Neo442
ToD207
mouzStarbuck184
C9.Mang0114
XaKoH 83
Trikslyr52
NeuroSwarm48
Organizations
Other Games
BasetradeTV45
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
sctven
[ Show 20 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• Hupsaiya 34
• Reevou 2
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• sooper7s
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• Migwel
• intothetv
• LaughNgamezSOOP
StarCraft: Brood War
• FirePhoenix16
• Michael_bg 7
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
• BSLYoutube
Dota 2
• C_a_k_e 4412
• masondota21834
League of Legends
• TFBlade836
Other Games
• imaqtpie876
• WagamamaTV297
• Shiphtur286
Upcoming Events
Sparkling Tuna Cup
14h 14m
Afreeca Starleague
14h 14m
Snow vs EffOrt
Wardi Open
15h 14m
PiGosaur Monday
1d 4h
LiuLi Cup
1d 15h
OSC
1d 19h
The PondCast
2 days
CranKy Ducklings
3 days
Maestros of the Game
4 days
Serral vs herO
Clem vs Reynor
[BSL 2025] Weekly
4 days
[ Show More ]
[BSL 2025] Weekly
4 days
BSL Team Wars
5 days
Wardi Open
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

2025 Chongqing Offline CUP
RSL Revival: Season 2
HCC Europe

Ongoing

BSL 20 Team Wars
KCM Race Survival 2025 Season 3
BSL 21 Points
ASL Season 20
CSL 2025 AUTUMN (S18)
Maestros of the Game
StarSeries Fall 2025
FISSURE Playground #2
BLAST Open Fall 2025
BLAST Open Fall Qual
Esports World Cup 2025
BLAST Bounty Fall 2025
BLAST Bounty Fall Qual
IEM Cologne 2025
FISSURE Playground #1

Upcoming

IPSL Winter 2025-26
SC4ALL: Brood War
BSL 21 Team A
BSL Season 21
RSL Revival: Season 3
Stellar Fest
SC4ALL: StarCraft II
EC S1
ESL Impact League Season 8
SL Budapest Major 2025
BLAST Rivals Fall 2025
IEM Chengdu 2025
PGL Masters Bucharest 2025
Thunderpick World Champ.
CS Asia Championships 2025
ESL Pro League S22
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2025 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.