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[$1000] BO31 KiWiKaKi vs CatZ - Page 22

Forum Index > StarCraft 2 Tournaments
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ROOTFayth
Profile Joined January 2004
Canada3351 Posts
January 23 2012 07:31 GMT
#421
2.4% lol......
qazadex
Profile Joined October 2010
Australia473 Posts
January 23 2012 07:37 GMT
#422
On January 23 2012 16:28 Bandino wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 23 2012 16:14 Liquid`Nazgul wrote:
fayth stick to poker!!!

if catz is 1:2 odds to win on a single game (as the result shows) then his odds to win a bo31 are really, really horrible and nothing close to 1:2. would be fun to run this by some smart math people.


I think it is just simple statistics. He has a 33% chance to win every match, and needs to win at least 16 times to win a bo31. You just to a cumulative binomial condition and 31 for the number of trials, greater than or equal to 16 for the number of successes and you get 2.456%. I could be wrong though any other suggestions?

Yeah, you are correct. I did a bit of binomial analysis of winrate graphically a while ago, but I never went up to Best of 31.
mindspike
Profile Blog Joined December 2002
Canada1902 Posts
January 23 2012 07:41 GMT
#423
Yes, its 2.4% given a 33 percent success per trial and a condition of at least 16 successes.

Calculator for those who are not good at math:

http://stattrek.com/tables/binomial.aspx
zerg/human - vancouver, canada
ROOTFayth
Profile Joined January 2004
Canada3351 Posts
January 23 2012 07:41 GMT
#424
ROOTFayth
Profile Joined January 2004
Canada3351 Posts
January 23 2012 07:55 GMT
#425
well I guess I was wrong, I must just be a natural at knowing odds without knowing why

cuz obviously I knew I wasn't breaking even or else I wouldn't have bothered betting
Blennd
Profile Joined April 2011
United States266 Posts
January 23 2012 07:57 GMT
#426
Fayth, let's play "pick a number 1-3", where you win if you pick right, I win if you pick wrong. I'll give you the great deal of 2.1:1 odds. Best of 31. PM me for action.
ROOTFayth
Profile Joined January 2004
Canada3351 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-01-23 07:58:26
January 23 2012 07:58 GMT
#427
we can play heads up at poker if you want

i'll pay you 20$/hour

PM me for action
Geordie
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United Kingdom653 Posts
January 23 2012 07:58 GMT
#428
Who won?
ROOTFayth
Profile Joined January 2004
Canada3351 Posts
January 23 2012 08:04 GMT
#429
On January 23 2012 16:57 Blennd wrote:
Fayth, let's play "pick a number 1-3", where you win if you pick right, I win if you pick wrong. I'll give you the great deal of 2.1:1 odds. Best of 31. PM me for action.

I'll take it only if it's BO1 ~_~
FreedonNadd
Profile Joined August 2010
Austria573 Posts
January 23 2012 08:17 GMT
#430
Catz, you should play next Minigun or Destiny. Would make perfect sense.
Some people wear Superman pajamas, but Superman has Day[9] pajamas.
kukarachaa
Profile Joined February 2011
United States284 Posts
January 23 2012 09:14 GMT
#431
On January 23 2012 16:58 ReignFayth wrote:
we can play heads up at poker if you want

i'll pay you 20$/hour

PM me for action


whats stakes, what games and where o_O
nekuodah
Profile Joined August 2010
England2409 Posts
January 23 2012 09:31 GMT
#432
On January 23 2012 16:58 Geordie wrote:
Who won?


Kiwi 16-8 iirc
ROOTFayth
Profile Joined January 2004
Canada3351 Posts
January 23 2012 09:32 GMT
#433
anything from 2/4 to 5/10 on stars
tofubeans
Profile Joined January 2011
United States794 Posts
January 23 2012 11:44 GMT
#434
any vods from kiwi's POV?
KicKDoG
Profile Joined December 2003
Sweden765 Posts
January 23 2012 12:23 GMT
#435
On January 23 2012 16:58 ReignFayth wrote:
we can play heads up at poker if you want

i'll pay you 20$/hour

PM me for action


I'd be scared playing you on poker >_<


to topic: great showmatches Hope they enjoyed it! Wel catz lost quite a lot of money
http://www.twitter.com/KicKDoG_LoL baylife plox?
Shinobi1982
Profile Joined January 2011
1605 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-01-23 12:50:07
January 23 2012 12:49 GMT
#436
On January 23 2012 16:58 ReignFayth wrote:
we can play heads up at poker if you want

i'll pay you 20$/hour

PM me for action

Isn't 20$/h very low if you want to play in the range of 2/4 - 5/10? At least offer something in the range of 100$ for 2/4 game and 500$ for 5/10.
And no I'm not interested even at those rates :D.
Train like an animal, eat like a horse, sleep like a baby, grow like a weed.
Sumahi
Profile Blog Joined January 2012
Guam5609 Posts
January 23 2012 13:08 GMT
#437
Damn, I really wanted to watch this over the weekend, can't believe I missed it.
Startale <3, ST_July <3, HongUn <3, Savior <3, Gretorp <3, Nada <3, Rainbow <3, Ret <3, Squirtle <3, Bomber <3
Cereb
Profile Joined November 2011
Denmark3388 Posts
January 23 2012 13:49 GMT
#438
On January 23 2012 22:08 Sumahi wrote:
Damn, I really wanted to watch this over the weekend, can't believe I missed it.



VoDs are up

Atleast on Catz Stream, haven't checked Kiwi's.
"Until the very very top in almost anything, all that matters is how much work you put in. The only problem is most people can't work hard even at things they do enjoy, much less things they don't have a real passion for. -Greg "IdrA" Fields
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
January 23 2012 15:55 GMT
#439
I don't know who lost the most in this thread.
Catz or Fayth.

lol.
I had a good night of sleep.
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland26876 Posts
January 23 2012 16:08 GMT
#440
On January 23 2012 14:49 Dubsy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 23 2012 14:42 ReignFayth wrote:
ok I'll stop discussing gambling with sc players :D


I think I'd really like to do some capping against you

I just think thats one of the most hilarious brags about a line I've ever seen haha. You totally whiffed on it and then claim you nailed it and pretend like you have an explanation. But hey if you wanna be a successful gambler without knowledge of basic math or stats, more power to you.

Maybe it is best you don't discuss gambling with SC players. Some of them are pretty sharp

This made me laugh lol, I think earlier on somebody linked to Fayth's poker profile and he'd made like a 60k dollar payout at some tournament, and doubtless makes some from just online poker. I'd been interested to try it but always neglected to as I'm pretty terrible at maths, but now I may just give it a go

Awesome series, also interesting to see how versatile and not-terrible proxy hatches are, blew my mind lol
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
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