EPTThanks for nothing.
T_T.
[GG] Red Army Mafia
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
Thanks for nothing. T_T. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
| ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
I am also going to sleep in around 4 minutes. Thus: I will entice people by saying "Wow I'm good at mafia, pick me!" tomorrow instead of today. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
| ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
So far foolishness is starting with his classic 'I'm a retard' shit, which he does every game. From what I've been told, its a method to keep him alive into days 3-4 without being day 1-2 killed by mafia, which kinda blows donkey dick because its the type of play which half-fucks the town who are looking for people posting inconsistently. I thought this of last game. I still think it this game. THEN HE GETS ARRESTED ROFL. Ver is kinda surprising me because he's putting down a fairly high volume of one liner/space waster posts. If what Qatol told me last game is correct (that Ver was the one who told him about Foolishness' style), he might be trying to emulate him because he's got an importantish role. OR he thinks he's going to get mafia buttfucked day 1. Does any of this mean anything at this point? No. Very little data to work with, but its interesting to see. Ace is running, as I kinda expected him to. Really very little off in the way he's calling people out. SCAMP IS ACTUALLY TALKING THIS GAME. HOLY FUCKBALLS HE MIGHT NOT BE MAFIA THIS TIME. As for Ace's last post: you've essentially summed up why our DTs are going to want to play rebel (ALL OF THEM). If we can make it very hard for mafia to team up, we force mafia self-killing. Any NKVD agent that gets into a ring gains a huge amount of information, and our risk/reward goes from 1 NKVD:1Ukranian to 1NKVD:1Ring. The slower mafia play, and the more information they gather, the more we would want our DTs rolling rebel. The only possible shit-scenario would be NKVD finding each other, but that's where people need to bust out their behavioral analysis hats and get to work. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
| ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
come on L, let's be serious here. In fact assume I'm a Ukrainian Rebel and you're an NKVD agent. do you REALLY think you'd ever successfully convince me you really are a Rebel and that you could get me to give up information about what I know and then get me lynched? Brah, I don't need to convince you of anything other than the fact that all our NKVD are going to be rebel to force you to slow the fuck down. We can switch to full NKVD showing on day 3-4. Your reply admits this. That's the entire point: Like you said earlier. Mafia are in the dark here which is why they are 'fucked'. If we can push that advantage to the max, we maximize our only advantage against them. Lynches won't have ukranian trains in them. Hits may kill our opponents for us. There will be no shared analysis or hit lists. These are HUGE bonuses. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
On July 30 2009 06:00 Ace wrote: Impossible to call. No idea how the NKVD agents individually select who they want to Role Check. you can't get IN the group - that's the problem. Once again think of it basically like this: Ace - NKVD Agent Scamp - Ukrainian Rebel Ace - o hai scamp, I checked you out. You're Rebel, so am I! <3 Scamp - o ok. cool. This is L and coltrane, their rebels too. Sup? Ace - lol newbs I'm an Agent. GG. Do you really think you'd do that? or is it more like this: Ace -o hai scamp, I checked you out. You're Rebel, so am I! <3 Scamp - that's nice hoe. Who did you kill last night? Ace - oh I killed...um...Foolishness. (I have no idea who really did so I'm guessing) Scamp(who knows the truth because he knows who killed Foolishness) - o ok. Well I can't trust you yet so who are you going to kill tomorrow night? Ace - um...I'll kill LucasWoj! Scamp - ok well when Lucas shows up dead I'll let you know! 2 problems already fucks the Agent over: I die immediately because Scamp knows the truth and kills me. I survive till the next day but Lucas doesn't die unless I get super lucky. If he doesn't I'm killed. The best I could do is roleclaim to the town that I'm an NKVD agent and found Scamp. Scamp of course says he's also an NKVD Agent and was undercover also. How do you sort through the liars? Even worse - what if Scamp really is an NKVD agent. Come on, I know what I'm talking about here. You guys are assuming the Rebels are so dumb as not to ask 2 simple questions which would destroy any NKVD agent without a lot of information ahead of time. Assuming NKVD agents contact their checks and never confirm townies to tell what's going on, sure. But replay the same scenario involving 2 Ukranians. Moreover, an early check has NO prior kills, and the 'killed last night' will always be " i checked you, silly". | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
And if the "Rebel" used a check the Night before why would the real Rebel even entertain the thought of talking to him since he can't be confirmed? EXACTLY. SO NOW REAL REBELS CANT ORGANIZE UNTIL DAY 3-4, POSSIBLY LATER IF THEY CHECK NON-REBEL TARGETS. At which point we can switch NKVD agents to all vigilantes if we want and proceed from there. Rules aren't clear on when/how/how many rolecheck masks our agents can use, but if they can change them post start, we're 100% fine. Even then, trading a single Dt for a single mafia at days 3-4 is fantastic trade given they have 1 kp/day (depending on how many there are). | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
C'mon Ace, keep the story straight. Those are your tips. Follow them :3. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
but you want ukranians to be able to check NKVD agents and see a blue/green and KNOW there's a safe kill target Fuck you caller for switching the colours this game. I meant Red/Green. Town is Christmas colours. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
somebody wants to get modkilled Someone wants a hug :3. If Agents are always green why would the Rebels kill them every time when every game peopel have been bitching about blue hunting? Makes no sense. If rebels RC someone who isn't blue, the immediate response is to kill them because they aren't blue. Mafia have a time limit, their weakness is self-killing. the moment they know someone isn't them, he's on the chopping block. Why would i take the effort to RC someone, find out they're not mafia, then NOT kill them? Why would I waste KP like that? It's never a good idea trading 1 for 1 in a game when no one can be confirmed. Ever. Pretty much any townie can be confirmed by a dying NKVD since there is no cover in this game. 1 trade is -1Kp/day if not more. Hi, who did you kill last night? O no one, cool. I'll wait till tomorrow night. They aren't going to get hasty. You are essentially saying OMG WE CAN PREVENT THEM FROM BEING ORGANIZED! when it just costs us some Agents. When the total number of roles in the game is revealed then they all know o ok, there's only 1 or 2 left. Time to start getting trigger happy. See, that's the thing, you're assuming that ukranians are going to rolecheck correctly on the first night (because otherwise my day 3-4 timeframe is 100% correct), miss medics/veterans and not kill each other off during that 3 blind night period and hope that NKVD have not identified medics, because if they do they can have themselves protected and give us assured targets. After which, mafia are still behind in information because their rings will be smaller and delayed in being set up. At that point, we can switch our NKVD agents to whatever we want. If we want them to switch green, sure. The chances that someone is RCed twice is hilariously low until the game wears on, and if that's the case, we don't trade 1:1. We trade 3:1 or higher given that ukranian RCs are KILLS DENIED. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
Why would you trust anyone that can't answer 2 questions? If you're not a Rebel you're better off hoping they have more targets. If you flip Rebel you WILL be questioned. Once you can't answer those 2 questions you die. There is no escape from that. If the goal is to survive the time limit why are you putting yourself in harm's way?. Just sit tight and don't try and be brave. You can't infiltrate the network, a roleclaim doesn't work and you just die for drawing attention to yourself. Why would an NKVD agent not answer, then simply say that their shot was blocked, or pick someone who's very likely to die the next day. The act of forcing the rebels to check kills, and kill themselves if their kills are blocked+ force them to wait for day 3 to be confirmed is huge. DTs aren't likely to RC more than 1 mafia anyways, which means that when Day 4 rolls around they can just go public and their death is actually a PLUS given that it confirms their information. The main 'currency' we gain from DTs is the DELAYED formation of rings AND CONFIRMED TOWN members, not confirmed mafia. Once we have a SINGLE CONFIRMED PERSON the amount of options we have available to us increases dramatically because we can have pretty much everyone claim to him. Simply check your numbers. Assume a number of DTs. Assume a number of mafia. Determine the proportion of each that will be checking successfully and run it all down; this is a net benefit to us. Um...no. If the NKVD agent dies, and says he investigated X all we know is that he really was an Agent. X still has the defense that he was an undercover NKVD Agent also. The dead Agent's death can't confirm or deny this. Wrong. See above. We know a FUCKTON more, especially if the agent has also investigated someone who isn't a rebel (which are probably going to be at 4:1 odds). If there is 0 contact between any of them they just keep on RCing. It doesn't matter if they get it on Day 1 or Day 2. It's what happens once the NKVD agent gets confronted - they are dead. They don't even need to care about NKVD Agents finding Medics - why would they? So basically you're saying that mafia need to keep RCing until they find another mafia, which is around a 20% chance. By your estimation, town won't even get HIT until day 3-4, which is obvious jokes. They NEED to care about NKVD agents finding ANYONE prior to them because when the NKVD agent goes supernova he's giving the town a confirmed claim trumpcard. we have no way of confirming anyone? Well, we do. Agent flips, he's confirmed any non-rebel he has checked. I've said this before. Story not being straight here. I'd be praying all the NKVD Agents go undercover, investigate me and present themselves The reverse is also true. A free mafia claim if Agents aren't contacting their targets is an assured kill for us. Basically Falcynn is 100% correct. this makes even Rebel/Rebel checks dangerous for rebels, and prevents them from sharing information properly until a confirm check is done which CAN be skirted by an agent if he contacts his target and has him claim hit. And now I am going home (am at school). Might not be able to post for a few hours. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
| ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
L when you can prove that NKVD/NKVD checks with both being possible Rebels can be avoided Done. I'm going home now. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
| ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
If I were Mafia would I repeatedly be making a case to save the NKVD Agents from certain doom No. Wrong. The town does not win by keeping blue roles alive: the town wins by killing mafia.No one gives a shit about how many DTs survive as long as WE KILL MAFIA and keep overall KP down. If their ability to form rings is high, our DTs are going to die faster to co-ordinated hits anyways, AS WILL THE REST OF US. You said it yourself: mafia's main problem is the lack of information. DTs become green with a bonus UPON DEATH on day 4; after that, there is NO reason to keep any of them alive, besides maybe 1 keeping a single RC to check in a must lynch or die scenario, and claims at that point will cause chaos either way. Why bonus day 4? They will have used all 3 RC, and their death confirms their list as accurate. If we switch all DTs from rebel to vet on day 3, we similarly have a night where rebels are confirmed red if they our DTs play right. When we have confirmed townies, we have confirmed targets for medics and confirmed people to claim to, which means town will have MORE information than mafia by day 3 onwards. At that point, we WANT our DTs to die instead of any other role ('sides real ukranians, obv) in the game because it confirms our information, which is a net benefit over a normal green dying. The converse chance that our Agents find rebels requires the exact same kill procedure to determine who's lying, because a ukranian who's under fire can easily claim that XYZ is a rebel and that they're a DT. The only person who KNOWS the Agent is telling the truth is the Agent. The only difference is his personal certainty he found a mafia member. As for certain doom: the chance any particular DT is rolechecked by a mafia is tiny, but the effect upon mafia/mafia ring formation is ASSURED. The Vet idea is better than claiming conscript, but its a terrible play regardless for the above reasons. | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
We aren't pitching them to the mafia. We're preventing mafia from organizing. The main 'issue' is that NKVD checks don't 100% confirm mafia members, and that's solved when all our DTs die and their lists become 100% accurate. Their ability to 'survive' after inspection is minimal; Even upon vet check without the chance for a DT kill, mafia are likely better off just spending 2 nights drilling through him because an additional RC would take the same amount of time for a kill (3 night actions total (RC/RC/Hit) v (RC/Hit/Hit). | ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
| ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
well you didn't make a platform yet, and it was between him and Lucaswoj. And well Lucas will never ever get a vote from me so yea. Well, I kinda STILL haven't made a platform. I'm pretty sure there's really nothing left to say regarding the NKVD, so the new topic du jour should probably be who the candidates think they should off day 1. I was thinking last night that I would threaten to off Ver so that he would talk a bit more, but with no real 'tells' on day 1 (and likely 2) there's NO reason why we should hit a good player. So that leaves shitty players who don't post, as usual, so I'm going to suggest we off Vivi57 because: 1) He's a shitty player. 2) He's not posting very much. Even if he IS town, which there's like an 80% chance that he is, I'm pretty sure we'll be better off dropping him than anyone else on the current roster. These players: JeeJee Goodwill RebirthofLegend decafchicken nttea quickstriker muqoou Obviously can't really be picked quite yet because they might be Caller-raped. Good people to look into for future days, though. | ||
| ||
