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So this game started with just about the worst possible timing for me to be active right away 
I'm not running for office. I don't see anything that stands out to me as a clue in the day 1 post that hasn't already been brought up. Since the focus of day 1 is on the elected roles though, I think it'd be worth analyzing exactly what the benefits of the roles are.
First the facts, which I am re-typing for convenience in reading my post.
Both roles have bodyguard protection. Both roles are immune to rolechecks.
Mayor gets the day 1 lynch and extra voting.
Sheriff gets 2 incarcerations.
Both roles get an intangible trustworthiness benefit, probably.
Okay. Now let's examine what this means for the town: how would it benefit the town to have a non-red elected, and how would it hurt the town to have a red elected? Since both roles are immune to rolechecks, the only way we can determine the alignment of our elected roles is through behavior analysis or clue analysis (assuming the elected is red, of course)
Bodyguard protection is a huge benefit if we get strong, town-aligned players elected--obviously. Keeps one/two great targets safe from the mafia. In addition, the bodyguard protection is not very beneficial to the mafia (it only protects from Vigi hits, and hopefully the whole town would see the Mayor/Sheriff bleeding red).
The immunity to rolechecks is a minus to the town period, since only the town benefits from rolechecks to begin with. Probably a necessary counterbalance to the bodyguard protection though :p
The mayorial day 1 lynch is largely a wash for the town. Only weak clues, no DT information, not as much time for behavior analysis unless someone blows up (see nemY in Mafia VIII). Not likely to be better than having the town vote on a candidate to lynch. It's a slight benefit to the mafia if they get elected Mayor since they have no risk of a day 1 Mafia lynching. It does potentially give the town information on the Mayor's alignment though.
The extra votes from the Mayor seem less important early on and a potentially huge benefit in the endgame if the game is otherwise fairly even. Mafia can win with a couple extra townies alive if a Mafia mayor is still alive--look at last game and mentally put Qatol back in as mayor and take a look at how hopeless townies ever getting a mafia lynched was at the end if you need evidence. Similar help for the town having a towny Mayor.
Incarcerations are iffy. Incarcerating a blue should be a last-ditch effort from a town-aligned Sheriff since it eliminates the benefits of that blue for the night. No DT checks, no medic protection, no Vigi hits that night (protecting a Vigi is, of course, slightly better than protecting a townie should the Vigi not want to hit that night and not have used his hit yet). Incarcerating a Mafia to lower KP is a great deal. Incarcerating a green can be good in certain circumstances (look at the last game Chuiu ran and Fishball's actions on day 4: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=89338¤tpage=69#1362 , or to protect a strong green player with no drawbacks). I think lowering Mafia KP is the best deal here but not necessarily something we'll have a chance to do.
One other thought--incarcerating a suspected Mafia when the number of Mafia is odd. IF that person is Mafia, it will lower KP that night. Medics know when they block hits, and Veterans know when they take a hit. From this we can essentially get extra rolechecks in these circumstances by just adding up the Mafia kills. (Mafia could stack hits, but that's still a win for the town. We don't get proof that the incarcerated is red, but the Mafia gives up an extra KP so it's still a benefit to the town). If we try this, I think it's best for Vigis to stay cool that night and not hit anyone, since a Mafia could try to claim the Vigi hit to keep their incarcerated ally safe. Clue analysis could fix this, but I think it's best to avoid the potential confusion.
For the mafia, the targets to incarcerate are blues that they think will get medic protection, or (probably ideally) incarcerating suspected medics to avoid getting their hits blocked.
My initial thoughts here are that the role of Sheriff is more beneficial to the town and Mayor is more beneficial to the Mafia.
Following from my above discussion of Sheriff and KP, if a medic blocks a hit we have a nearly-confirmed towny since the Mafia cannot hit themselves (not that I'd think they'd want to anyway). Having a confirmed townie to act as a leader is very powerful. Similarly, a Vigi hit can confirm a towny if that Vigi hits Mafia and can prove the clues point to himself.
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I'm going to hold off on voting in the election right now until I get more information, especially considering the subject of my post.
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er, slight problem in my last post.
Now that JeeJee brings it up, the GF is apparently not counted in the 6 mafia
Mafia killing power is:
6-7 mafia = 3 KP 3-5 mafia = 2 KP 1-2 mafia = 1 KP
So we'd have to incarcerate a suspected mafia when 6 or 3 mafia remain to get the "extra rolecheck."
Yay misreading the OP when you skim it!
And I guess Millers count as towny, so that'd be 31 total players.
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Keep in mind we are electing two people here. Even if you think Shikyo is the best candidate that doesn't mean the best move is to vote for him.
To the candidates: I'd like to see you step it up. The town needs to come up with some sort of plan for the future days. If you're serious about the town winning, then regardless of who's voting for you it's in your best interest to help brainstorm ideas for possible scenarios. None of the four candidates have convinced me they're enough of an asset to ensure the bodyguard protection is worth spending on them. Shikyo probably has the best platform, but it's only talking about himself. What about the rest of your town, guys? This game isn't about winning the election; it's about finding and outing the reds.
Here's a start, pulled from my own Mafia experiences in the past and from reading games on this site:
I think getting a confirmed towny is a great situation; it lets us roleclaim to that person (who can then compare with the role counts we know) and organizes a mouth for DTs to speak through to give us their information while leaving the fewest number of town-aligned players exposed. Whoever our confirmed towny is should keep everyone on a need-to-know basis so that we can check inconsistencies better--if a mafia roleclaims DT, for instance....
Having an incarceration available for the confirmed towny is also great. This exact scenario happened in Chuiu's Mafia 5 as I suggested earlier.
The problem is getting a confirmed towny. I see two possible ways which I already talked about. The best is a successful Vigi hit on a mafia if we can strongly connect the clue analysis to the Vigi. The other is getting a blocked medic hit on anyone, in which case the medic can confirm the innocence of the person who was hit.
Hm... This post is obviously unfinished (how can the mafia try to muddle this plan? how can we as a town get around that? what if we don't get a confirmed towny?). I'll leave it this way for now--I have stuff to do--and see what other people can fill in on it/add to it. When I get a chance I'll come back to my thoughts and see if I can think of other plans should we not be able to confirm a towny.
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On May 19 2009 10:42 JeeJee wrote:
Also keep in mind, if a medic successfully protects X, this doesn't say anything about X's innocence. Sure, it's likely that X is a townie-aligned role that was hit by mafia, but it's also possible that it was a mafia hit by a vigi.
If Vigis do PM out their hits when they hit someone then we avoid that possible pitfall, so that sounds good.
The downside is that mafia can try to hide behind a PM wall here by PM'ing different people each night. This removes some suspicion from them and might make the entire game more difficult, particularly if we don't actually get the medic save that we're banking on for this plan to make sense.
I'm not sure what the best answer to this is. Perhaps it might work out best if Vigis just claim their own hits in this thread if this situation arises (Vigi hit blocked by medic)? We can lynch the player claiming Vigi that night to confirm his role.... We lose a lynch and a town-aligned player but it saves the plan, and this situation shouldn't happen in the first place so maybe this is ok. On the other hand, if it does arise, we're left pretty screwed in my analysis (town loses an entire lynch and a Vigi for essentially nothing; we can't afford to throw that away if the mafia plays well).
Both plans have merits, I think. I'm leaning toward the second since it makes the game easier if we don't get a medic save leading to a confirmed towny. The penalty for blocking a Vigi hit is giant but the chance of that happening should be small.
Leaving aside that situation for now--we only need a solution for Night 2 anyway since Vigis can't hit Night 1--let's assume we get a medic blocking a non-Vigi hit. Here's my proposed plan, with events in order (important!):
Player A takes a hit, protected by Medic B.
A claims the hit publicly.
We figure out it's not a Vigi hit (however we plan to do that)
B confirms the save.
Sheriff incarcerates A (we need to protect him for the night)
Now the town has to confirm B's role. I suggest lynching B to do that since it's quick and time is of the essence. We lose a medic and a lynch but we confirm A's innocence and get our mouth. My guess is this is worth it.
(In this scenario, A will only speak up if he is towny and did take a hit or if he is mafia. If A is mafia, B will only speak up if he is also mafia. If B flips red, we lynch A the day after).
We do for sure want B to speak up only after we confirm the hit was not a Vigi hit--otherwise, if it does end up being a Vigi hit, we've just had a medic roleclaim to the mafia and that's not good. I don't see any benefits to having B speak up before we determine it's not a Vigi hit that got blocked.
Hm.
One other thing I thought of: what if multiple players claim to have saved A? Either all of those players claiming to have saved are mafia and A is also mafia (way to throw the game, reds!), or A is town, one of the players claiming medic is a medic, and the rest are mafia. In this case, I guess we lynch all the players claiming to have saved A. Sheriff does not incarcerate A, and we probably end up losing A (to a mafia hit ... unless medics save him again?) and a medic (to being lynched), but we do lynch at least one mafia. Still looks good to me on paper.
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I don't want to take the focus too much off the election, by the way--the election is important. I'm trying mainly to spark discussion from the candidates (and the rest of the players--more talk usually only helps the town) to let the useful ones show the town they're useful and to give us more information about all of them regardless.
If I post in this topic again tonight it'll be right before I go to bed, but I might not post any more tonight. In the morning I will cast my initial vote in the election. If I were to vote right now I would vote either JeeJee or Jimtudor.
As I looked at the topic just before posting I notice that Zeks has posted his candidacy. I haven't had time to read it much, so no comments on it from me yet.
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One other quick comment (brought up by iLoveKTF): a medic protection list might make sense; I'm assuming here that the mafia as a whole is better at determining who the dangerous players in the game are than individual medics are. Couple this with the inactivity we've seen from a lot of players so far and we'll be able to at least lessen the chance of our admittedly few good contributors biting the dust right away. We have three medics, so somewhere around six players seems the right number to put on a potential list: few enough that the players on the list get some protection that the mafia has to take into account, but not so few that the mafia will just ignore the list entirely and hit only players not on the list.
If people start coming out of the woodwork tomorrow this might change. I'll think about who should go on the list tomorrow, and if we agree that the list is a good idea then I'll post my ideas.
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Shikyo wrote:
About multiple people claiming to have saved A, we don't necessarily have to kill all those people.
Yes, we do. Read my posts again. Same reason that if a Vigi claims a hit we have to lynch the Vigi afterward if we want to believe him.
Pawsom wrote:
Just a thought, if we get a succesful towny identification through a medic save, could the medic saving him go ahead and role claim, and then call for another medic to protect him, while he continues to protect the player he saved?
No. We need to confirm the role of the medic, so we have to lynch the medic.
In general public roleclaiming is not helpful for the town since we gain nothing from it until we confirm whether you're being truthful. The only surefire way to do that (unless we have a confirmed towny ... and in this case public roleclaiming is just giving the mafia extra information we don't want them to have anyway) is to have the player roleclaiming die. The mafia, on the other hand, benefit from public roleclaiming immediately.
Anyway I think for the remainder of the day we should focus on the candidates. Whoever gets elected can start planning tonight in case we end up with a successful save.
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I like JeeJee's post giving advice. Nothing in it (I skimmed most of it, admittedly) seems off-base to me. I'm trusting on his experience and his activity and going to vote for him. His advice for the mafia is particularly strong and I advise all the reds to follow it 
One thing I would add--DO NOT ROLECLAIM TO ANYONE unless you have a very good reason for doing so. Most especially, do not just roleclaim to an elected role because they got elected. This very much includes the bodyguards--see what happened on night 1 in Mafia VIII for why.
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On May 20 2009 05:46 teks wrote:Really? If the Vigi hits a red we know it's a vigi hit, and if he told 3-4 people via PM before he did the hit they can confirm his story. We would have a confirmed townie then.
I wasn't talking about the scenario you are talking about here at all.
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Lynching Jimtudor so quickly seems a bad idea to me. If he's not red, we lose an active towny who's definitely contributing. Sure, if he is red, we win by lynching him--but if he stays active we'll get a better feel for him; if he goes inactive, that's putting up a big suspicious flag too.
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I said last night I'd give input on a medic list. Here are my choices
iLoveKTF
vx70GTOJudgexv
Zeks
Jimtudor
...and me (take this as you will)
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It's not possible to double lynch on day 2 -_-
Killing 2 mafia by the end of day 2 requires a vigi hit at this point. Unlikely, but possible.
If we vote for double lynch on day 2, we get it on day 3.
I don't see any point discussing it just yet since we clearly don't have much information. We definitely want to use both of them, but whether we should use the first on day 3 or on day 4 I'm not sure. Waiting longer than that seems suicidal though.
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I'm hoping Jimtudor wasn't stupid enough to PM his Bodyguard role to either JeeJee or Shikyo (other BG don't you be stupid either); my guess is the mafia just wanted to get rid of him based on his day 1 posts and they got lucky when he flipped blue. Seems curious to me that they would go after him so quickly if we were going to check up on him anyway, but then he was on the medic lists for a reason.
Only two kills is excellent though regardless.
I don't have the time to look through the posts too much right now, but I'll probably try my hand at clue analysis when I can since we don't have much behavior to go on from half the town and we need to start the mafia bleeding ASAP.
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Also, since there are so many inactives/people who haven't contributed much, my hunch is that most of the mafia are hiding amongst those players.
If you're green or blue and have been quiet so far I suggest you start speaking up. Nothing to be nervous about as long as you have nothing to hide
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@zeks:
c) Our 1 Veteran got hit
Other possibility, looks about as likely as a save to me.
Do we want the potential player who took the third hit (assuming there was a save or the Vet got hit) to speak up?
Will look around for clues before I go to bed, I promise. I just had to watch the other game play out for a bit though.
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I went through both days posts. Forgive me if I repeat phrases here from day 1; I only skimmed the analysis people had already done.
From day 1:
red feathers/gray cardinal
likely a reference to Pyrrhuloxia himself since a Pyrrhuloxia is a type of cardinal and the picture on Wikipedia fits
eerily crepuscular
Already been mentioned as a likely clue.
Possible links:
chaoser--Pokemon quote, some Pokemon are crepuscular (and you might call ninjas crepuscular as well)
Pawsome--empty profile, some crepuscular animals have paws
Jayme--fucking huge cat picture
teks (weak) -- Darkwing Duck pic at night
sixth [floor ledge]
Possibly not a clue.
Only link I can find is clazziquai, and that's simply him being #6 on the list of players.
Meanwhile, downstairs, Qatol was using the Triumvirate Building's spacious archery range for target practice. [bAs he looked down to reload, another figure crossed the room from the other side. The mafioso crept behind Qatol and took out his knife. Qatol never shot another arrow. [/b]
Suggesting something very fast
Possible links:
chaoser--ninja reference in his profile (sneaking across a whole archery range? maybe a ninja could do it)
sugiuramidor--"run and run" in profile
teks (weak) -- Darkwing Duck
JeeJee--Franz Stampfl (athletics connection)
If this is a clue I'm pinning it on chaoser above the rest.
the shattering windshield
My question is how it shattered. It shattering inward is not that strange ... except that we're not given any hint of something hitting it from outside.
My first thought was to check icons for ghosts in particular (psychic powers?). No luck. Maybe links to bleeding to death? (Strange that LTT would bleed out so quickly too imo) Couldn't find those either.
I do have in my profile a quote about cars (did anyone catch this day 1?). I'm not red though :p
Possible links:
crate--the car
phelix (weak) -- "spray and pray"--possibly windshield shattered by a bullet? Not likely correct.
Day 2:
Jimtudor had no hard feelings about the election. With love for his town in his heart, he prepared to defend the people chosen to lead in this time of crisis. His door bell rang. "Who could it be at this hour?," he thought. A salesman in a flashy tie greeted Jimtudor from his welcome mat and began his pitch. Jimtudor tried to close the door in the man's face, but the man swiftly jammed a metal bar in the doorway and used it to pry the door open, then bash Jimtudor in the head till he died.
Walking through the park in the darkness, Softer began to think he was being stalked, so he hid in the bushes. The figure that had been following him began to search the thicket, and Softer panicked and tried to bolt towards the park's exit. However, before Softer could get away, his stalker whipped him forcefully in the back. Softer flew to the ground, where vicious stomps to the back of the neck took his life.
love for his town in his heart
Possible links:
iLoveKTF -- possibly too easy to link
Ra.Xor.2 -- google the quote in his profile, find the book it's from: A Return to Love
flashy tie
Possible links:
clazziquai (somewhat weak)--google his name, go to images. You do get a pic of a guy with a tie. Also the band has an album called "Color Your Soul" and could be color = flashy
swiftly jammed a metal bar
Might be a red herring. Can't find any links
hid in the bushes
Possible links:
chaoser (weak) -- quote from Rekrul in his profile, and of course Rekrul => Lurker
bolt toward the park's exit
Key here is the use of the word "bolt"
Possible links:
bwdero -- look at that picture!
Might not be a clue though
whipped forcefully in the back
Possible links:
wurm (weak) -- towel ... but I don't think "whipped forcefully" matches with a towel too well
stomps to the back of the neck
Possible links:
epicdoom -- neck = sexy?
I have tried here to link clues to people instead of people to clues. I used iLoveKTF's topic for profiles since it's so much easier that way.
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I am not going to comment on who I think we should vote out just yet.... Inactivity is, like I said, a big red flag for me right now.
Also I apologize for my veritable eyesore of a post above.
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On May 21 2009 14:57 Phelix wrote:
Possibility of a Veteran being hit is unlikely, since Pyrr would post who would got hit.
Where do you pull this from? The rules do not say that at all. The veteran himself would be notified but I don't think there would be a public announcement of the hit.
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lol I guess #1 Flash Fan (gj me missing that) could link to "flashy tie" though I think that's too obvious to be a real clue
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I know Koopie outside of TL (I told her to come sign up for the game).
Originally her profile was blank (as you can see in iLoveKTF's profile compilation).
I don't think it's out of an effort to cheat.
Anyone who wants to make me look suspicious, have a field day since I realize this post is probably a mistake but I'm making it anyway.
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Guess I might as well not really hide this (yay another mistake post; have fun, mafia!)
I will be very, very surprised if Koopie flips red. Trust me for now, I will have a defense tomorrow. I've been talking to her on MSN a lot.
I have some other names I'm looking at harder than Koopie and I will post those sometime tomorrow as well. The timing right now is bad for me to discuss them since I'll be going to sleep right after this post. Rest assured you'll see stuff from me tomorrow.
Look through the thread, see who's been stupid or the like, write down those names. Look through the clues, see who you match up to them (and what clue analysis from others you buy). If you get the same names from both methods start thinking hard about those people.
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Well good afternoon folks, I'm ready to post some stuff.
I'll start with a big group of MSN logs. Koopie is green, and this is why I think so.
First one quick comment though:
chaoser wrote:
The best people in roles of leadership are either a DT or a vet with a clean hit record (never hit yet).
Disagree strongly on the DT. DTs want to stay behind the scenes and find a mouth. Best leaders are the Vet or a regular green towny, since they have no special powers that make the mafia want to kill them anyway.
Here's the MSN logs:
+ Show Spoiler +I think this was on the second 24 hours of day 1 [22:54] Koops: *Poke* [22:54] *** Auto-response sent to Koops: I am currently away from the computer. [22:54] crate: hi [22:55] Koops: Hey. =P [22:55] Koops: I think I suck at the Mafia games, but I'm trying. >_>; [22:55] crate: dont worry, i've pinned a number of players who are clearly bad [22:55] crate: lol [22:55] Koops: Lmao [22:56] crate: i'm going back through the topic right now [22:56] crate: havent gotten to your new posts yet [22:56] Koops: ._. [22:57] Koops: And if you want to play Brawl, I think Alex and my friend Adam want to play, too. [22:58] crate: give me a little bit to finish up the mafia thread [22:58] crate: then ok [22:58] Koops: Mmk [23:00] crate: fyi, my pick for surest town-aligned player right now is iLoveKTF [23:00] Koops: Hey, me too. [23:00] Koops: I'm pretty sure everyone else, too. [23:01] Koops: My latest post is stupid and I regret, but whatever. [23:01] crate: mm, doesnt do much but add confusion imo [23:01] crate: not good [23:01] Koops: Mmhm. [23:02] Koops: Then again I haven't posted too much, so it's not like it would be hard to redeem myself. [23:02] Koops: If I would even need to. [23:02] crate: that post is the sort of post i've been noticing to pin players as bad [23:02] crate: ;p [23:02] Koops: Yes. -_-; [23:03] crate: we'll have more to go on next day [23:03] crate: i'm anticipating a quiet night [23:03] Koops: Day 2 will be more fun. [23:03] Koops: Like I said I hate Day 1. [23:03] crate: day 2 is when we really get to see how players lean --- This was yesterday: I snipped a bit of this because we talk about Brawl a lot since we were playing during part of this. [16:44] Koops: At least the town wants to protect you. [16:45] crate: so i can bounce ideas off of you [16:45] Koops: Yeah, you could. [16:45] crate: well [16:45] crate: here's my guess [16:45] crate: one of the first three candidates for the election is mafia or none of them are [16:46] crate: jeejee's timing seems too late to me for the mafia [16:46] Koops: I think Shikyo is mafia. [16:46] crate: ilovektf is clearly not mafia since he got ZERO support [16:46] Koops: Um, yeah. [16:46] crate: and shikyo has been posting lots and lots of fluff [16:46] crate: so yeah [16:46] Koops: Yep. [16:46] crate: i have him down as the most likely red too [16:46] Koops: And he was bandwagoned from the start.. [16:46] Koops: And then people changed. [16:46] Koops: Just seems like he's mafia. [16:47] crate: he's said extremely little considering the number of words he's posted [16:47] Koops: I know! [16:49] Koops: Well, fun. I figured you out. [16:49] crate: right conclusion, wrong reason [16:50] crate: lmao [16:50] Koops: Rofl. [16:55] Koops: I don't want Jimtudor protected. :| [16:55] crate: if i were mafia there is no way i'd hit him right now [16:55] Koops: I know... [16:55] Koops: It's stupid. [16:56] crate: i think most of the mafia is hiding in the >half of the players who havent said anything constructive [16:56] Koops: Well, definitely. [16:56] crate: its too easy [16:56] Koops: It's the easiest. [16:57] Koops: It blends them into a really big crowd. [16:57] Koops: That's the best possible situation. [16:57] crate: mhm [16:57] Koops: Now, if everyone were active... It would be stupid. [16:57] Koops: But that's not the case. [16:58] Koops: Yeah, he would... [16:59] Koops: Also if I was mafia, I'm sure my clues would be pretty simple to read. ;P [17:00] crate: i do not envy pyr, trying to make up clues for so many players who probably have no profile and so few posts [17:00] Koops: Yeah. [17:00] Koops: I edited my profile because of that. [17:00] crate: heh [17:00] Koops: I even put a picture in there. ;-; [17:00] crate: i see [17:00] Koops: Not of me, but yes. Lol. [17:00] crate: btw i think it's interesting how much more town-favored pyr's setup is than qatols [17:00] crate: same number of players but we have an extra vigi, medic [17:00] Koops: Yeah. [17:01] crate: same number of mafia [17:01] Koops: Honestly I want to see the town win, anyways. [17:01] crate: and sheriff is way more powerful than pardoner [17:01] Koops: Even though being on the mafia would be more exciting. [17:01] crate: my favorite role is townie [17:01] crate: actually [17:01] crate: favorite role would be veteran [17:01] crate: cause its SUPER townie [17:01] Koops: Haha. [17:02] Koops: Okay, again. If I was mafia I would not point out to you that I knew. :< [17:02] crate: i know [17:04] crate: i wonder how much the town really trusts shikyo [17:05] Koops: I know I don't. [17:05] crate: actually [17:05] crate: i guess my big thought is that being able to just look past who is posting is the best [17:06] crate: link the content to the player, not the player to the content, if you get what i mean [17:06] Koops: Yeah, I get it. [17:07] crate: and i do doubt i'm going to die tonight; i'm too obvious a target i think, and unless you're playing me really well, the mafia knows i havent really shown anything dangerous yet [17:07] Koops: Great I mispelled send in my post. [17:07] Koops: To end. [17:07] Koops: -_-; [17:07] crate: lol [17:07] Koops: crate I don't think anyone really suspects you. [17:07] Koops: But I'm sure people think you're with the town. [17:07] Koops: Just my thoughts. [17:08] crate: i have posted really nothing but facts, and a good plan is a good plan either way [17:08] Koops: Because mafia members should seem like part of the town, too. [17:08] crate: its easy to seem like part of our town [17:08] crate: dont say anything [17:08] crate: :p [17:08] Koops: =P [17:10] crate: while i'd be surprised if i die, i would be SHOCKED if you die [17:10] Koops: Yes. [17:10] crate: i really hope people dont roleclaim to shikyo [17:10] crate: or to jeejee for that matter [17:10] Koops: I KNOW. [17:11] Koops: Hopefully they look at them just the same as others. [17:11] Koops: To me they're even more suspcious. [17:11] crate: yeah [17:11] Koops: I can't type [17:11] Koops: -_-; [17:11] crate: anyone running is suspicious [17:11] Koops: Yeah. [17:11] Koops: That's what I had said before. [17:11] Koops: To silly Jimtudor. [17:11] Koops: ;_; [17:11] crate: i hope his clue analysis is as good as he claims [17:11] Koops: Who's the one that said they ran before they looked? [17:11] crate: ilovektf [17:12] crate: all the more reason to think he's not mafia, after the overwhelming show of support he got, lol [17:12] Koops: Yeah. [17:12] crate: he does have some name value; tbh his platform is comparable to jeejee but jeejee had better timing [17:13] Koops: I'd rather have ilovektf but I'd rather have JeeJee over Shikyo. So that's why I voted for him. [17:13] Koops: Wow... [17:13] Koops: I really can't type. [17:13] crate: foolishness must be town, since a mafia playing like that makes no sense [17:14] crate: the town as a whole likes shikyo [17:14] crate: so saying he's shifty at this point only makes you suspicious [17:14] Koops: :S [17:14] crate: hence no mafia would do it regardless of shikyo's alignment [17:14] crate: saying it publicly anyway [17:15] Koops: I'm just waiting for the nigt actions to be sent so we can move on. [17:15] Koops: night* [17:15] crate: heh yeah [17:15] crate: tomorrow it should get interesting [17:15] Koops: Yeah. [17:15] Koops: I really want to see who gets killed. >_>; [17:18] Koops: Aw... why do we have a big chunk of inactives? ._. [17:19] crate: new players who got townie and get bored, then mafia hide amongst them [17:19] Koops: I'd laugh if they were all mafia. [17:19] crate: i guess [17:19] Koops: Lmao. [17:19] crate: idk, i love being townie, like jeejee said [17:28] crate: oh btw now i understand that ":S" earlier; i hadnt read your post when you said it [17:28] Koops: Yes... [17:28] Koops: -_-; [17:28] Koops: It's okay, though. [17:29] Koops: Things can work in a lot of different ways if people at least begin to CONSIDER Shikyo. [17:29] crate: i think your biggest problem is the timing of that post [17:29] crate: you want to wait till day to say those things [17:29] Koops: That's true. [17:29] Koops: But if I was hit [17:29] crate: unless you have some reason to think you're going to die [17:30] Koops: It's kind of safe to say who could be mafia. [17:30] Koops: >_> [17:30] Koops: Also, it could just be me looking like I'm asking an honest question. [17:30] Koops: Who knows. [17:30] crate: you look more like a stupid townie than anything else so far to me [17:30] crate: >_> [17:30] Koops: Ahahaha. [17:31] crate: but not a really stupid townie [17:31] crate: i have a couple of those marked down [17:31] crate: they're really absurdly bad or dumb or something [17:31] Koops: I really just want to know why he put Jimtudor on the list, that's all. [17:31] Koops: There are more important people to the town. [17:32] crate: defend it like that if anyone questions your wording [17:32] Koops: He doesn't really post, and if he does... [17:32] Koops: It sucks. [17:33] crate: i hope you are town aligned and can pick up on other roles like you sniped mine [18:16] Koops: I got Shikyo to add iloveKTF. [18:16] Koops: I am great. [18:17] Koops: Even though it doesn't mean that much. [18:17] Koops: Lmao. [18:17] crate: heh [18:17] Koops: Oh well, I just wanted to redeem my stupid. [18:17] Koops: .-. [18:17] crate: it's ok; you're not the only one who's made dumb posts [18:18] Koops: Yeah, I know.
Take that as you will. She's playing badly for sure, but I think she's just being stupid and I hope she'll stop being stupid soon.
(One note of emphasis: don't look at who is saying what when you're reading posts. Look at what's being said, see if it makes sense/contributes anything, THEN look at who wrote it. I said this above but I know half of you aren't going to read the whole convo.)
Obviously this dovetails nicely into my suspicions. I'm going to call Shikyo out for his huge volume of words with little to nothing said in them. If you want to convince me you're not a mafia trying to play the town by hiding behind lots of fluff, start making real contributions instead of repeating things that were already said and agreeing with everyone. The mayor position doesn't strike me as a real benefit to the town anyway other than keeping the mayor behind BG protection, and let me tell you I am not convinced Shikyo is worth that BG protection. Regardless of your alignment I think your fluff isn't helping the town any.
(After I wrote this I saw your most recent post. Definitely a step up if your targets happen to be good).
Right now my dumb players list includes Raxor, Pawsome, The_Master, Koopie (well...), and l10f.
Inactives: omG.[RaYnE], clazziquai, motbob, adriix33 (didn't vote, may get modkilled after day 2), SugiuraMidori (claimed quite some time ago he'd be inactive--driving from Tuscon, but that's too long ago, also in danger of modkill), Knutti, and epicdoom
My guess is probably half the mafia is among those players. Some of the stupid players are probably just being stupid because they're not reading the whole thread or have no idea what to do or just don't actually think and re-read their posts before they click the button, but even in a newbie game that will only get you so far imo.
fuck i'm tired of writing for a bit I'll follow this up in a bit but I need a break from writing for now
start making posts with content people there are at least two couple obvious things that people should do to contribute. I'm not going to tell you what they are though since I want to know who is actually thinking in this game and who isn't, and I'm going to do one of them myself soon if no one else does
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I know full well I'm playing badly, lol. I've already lost count of my mistakes, and the two posts leading to me posting those logs are even called "mistakes" in the post because they FUCKING ARE. Koopie has been completely un-suspicious to me and I want her to have fun by not dying yet.
If you guys think I'm shady, go for it; knock me off. I have nothing to hide.
I voted for RaXor because of a hunch like I said. If you guys don't agree with me, okay. I don't have a case against him right now other than saying it's a hunch. I can't explain why but I think the clue I linked to him is as strong as the clues linked to Jayme (it's the kind of clue I'd have come up with, at any rate) and Jayme's behavior did not make me suspicious while Raxor's did.
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I still have more to post later and there are still two obvious post subjects that will be covered by the end of day 2, by me if no one else steps up.
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They're just facts. I will make the posts when I am not so FUCKING TIRED OF WRITING since they're lots of work if no one else does.
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Wow that last post has godawful sentence structure. Let me try again.
The two posts I am talking about are just facts (as in, it does not matter one whit who makes the post except for who posts the first analysis). I want to see if anyone else thinks looking over these two things is important. If no one else does, I will do it myself and post the results for the town. Telling the town what those posts are doesn't really matter since it's just a matter of collecting facts.
I cannot post the results yet because I have not done the research yet that I would need to do to write the posts.
In other words, I'm asking the town: what facts do we have that we should be examining but are not?
Clear enough for you?
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I'm not just telling the town what to look at because I think the whole town gets more information this way by seeing who makes the connection between what I'm obliquely referring to and the facts we have at hand.
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Okay, anyway, now that I've listed the players I'd like to see step it up, I'm going to give you a list of who I think is town-aligned. Besides me, of course (I'm 100% town-aligned!)
Foolishness: He called out Shikyo on day 1. Let's examine this action for a minute. Shikyo had a runaway lead at the time, and his platform was the most grounded in ideas applicable to this game at the time. There are two scenarios here:
1. Foolishness is mafia
2. Foolishness is not mafia
Let's assume the first is true. Then Foolishness's "campaign" is really stupid. The timing is terrible since there was zero chance of Shikyo getting lynched that day (even if I were elected Mayor and Shikyo not elected there is zero chance I'd have picked to lynch Shikyo at the time; if he doesn't flip red--and while I'm suspicious of him, I by no means am certain he's mafia--then the lynch is rightfully denounced as abysmally stupid) so all Foolishness is doing is setting himself up for scrutiny. Foolishness had a low profile and he's calling out the highest-profile player at the time in Shikyo.
The timing is the capper for me. My bet is Foolishness is townie. Putting yourself in suspicion so early doesn't fit with being red or blue imo.
(The other possibility is this is a ploy by a Mafia to make us think he's towny. I think this is less likely, but you can make your own conclusions).
iLoveKTF: He ran for Mayor/Sheriff before the vast majority of people even opened the thread. He does have some experience in other mafia games and his platform was just as good as Jimtudor's. He didn't get a single vote. Running for the election makes you suspicious, regardless of the claim that you didn't read your role PM before announcing your candidacy.
There are three possibilities I see here. The most likely is he's not mafia so he didn't get any mafia support and the town didn't buy into his campaign either.
Number two is he's the only mafia candidate who ran. Extremely unlikely in my mind--Jimtudor got some support, and iLoveKTF has acted no more suspicious than Jimmy did. Getting some support from fellow mafia members makes sense to me in this case, and he can elaborate on his platform after being called on its emptiness anyway.
Final case is that iLoveKTF is mafia and Shikyo or JeeJee (or, worst case, both) is mafia. This seems unlikely to me, having two mafia candidates running, but it would explain why iLoveKTF got zero votes despite having a mafia bloc behind him--the mafia had a better candidate to support. Also seems unlikely that both iLoveKTF and Shikyo are mafia given this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=93562¤tpage=16#319 (why start casting suspicion on fellow mafia Shikyo for that reason?).
I'm thinking he's town aligned. I can't say whether green or blue though.
Third would be Koopie, as I've already explained, but I'm actually more confident in the other two being town-aligned than her. No idea on her specific role either.
Well and of course we know Jimmy and softer were on our side too but a bit late for that now....
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And I guess I will also lay out my suspicions for Ra.Xor.2
1. He is inactive due to finals (or claims to be), only possibly skims the thread ... points out clues that we have already seen and discounted, no new clue analysis
2. He says he is almost 100% sure either Jimtudor or JeeJee is mafia. This doesn't sit right with me since I've seen nothing from either of them apart from just running for office. Then again, the timing is stupid for a mafia accusation.
3.Ra.Xor.2 wrote:
Role checks cannot be done night 1, and if Tudor is elected, we can no longer role check him. The same goes for JeeJee. However, if we are able to lynch one of his voters and he flips red, i think lynching him would be a smart move. Again, this can also be applied if JeeJee wins the election.
This is really stupid and he got called on it right away.
4. The clue I linked to the book in his profile, like I said.
My reasons for voting to lynch him:
1. I don't want Jayme to be lynched with no competition so I threw another suspicious name out there right away to make people think. If we just all agree to lynch Jayme we get no information from the day, which is bad in the long term regardless of Jayme's alignment.
2. Raxor hasn't contributed much so far and is maybe trying to hide in the not-quite-inactives; his clue analysis has been repeating stuff others have said (either trying to make himself look useful, trying to make the town focus on something wrong, or just not reading the thread) so even if he does flip towny we don't lose much.
3. Jayme's defense didn't ring alarm bells in my head, though I'm certainly not convinced that Jayme is a bad lynch choice.
4. I want to hear Raxor's defense so I can get a better handle on him: is he just not reading the thread or is he really red?
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Anyone inactive is suspicious to me, and that includes clazziquai. I don't rank Raxor's posting much better right now though.
I haven't read up on past games to see how people in this game tended; there simply aren't enough of us who have played in other games here on TL to make that time worthwhile imo. If that's your reasoning for clazzi, then that's why I don't share it. Though I do think that just coming in and asking for a summary is not very helpful.
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vx70GTOJudgexv wrote:
I know I've seized a bit of a gung-ho take the lead role, but I just want to see this town not fall for foolish things.
You and me both.
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This is a direct response to Raxor, but the post is aimed at the whole town.
If I'm not going to be aggressive and force people to be active, who the hell is going to do it for me? Doesn't look like anyone else is stepping to the plate and if we let the mafia be inactive or just echo others' posts we're just shooting ourselves in the foot.
I'm jumping on clues because, let's face it, what ELSE do I have to pick out one inactive from the group? Yes I'm lumping you in the inactive group here because when I made that post you weren't helping the town much, and I had a clue that I thought pointed to you.
Also, one quick scenario for the town to consider. Let's assume here that Jayme is mafia. Let's assume that the entire town votes to lynch Jayme and you don't have me calling out other suspicious people. Right now the town stands at 7 mafia and 22 townies (my guess is the third hit got our Veteran). We lynch Jayme tonight, he flips red, yay! 3 townies die tonight (this is the most likely scenario). Puts us at 6 mafia (3KP) and 19 townies.
Now realize that if we just agree on Jayme we wasted one of our big assets. We don't gain any information from the voting list! If I were a mafia in Jayme's spot, there are only 2 courses of action I'd think about. One would be to get some airtight defense up and convince the town I'm not mafia. The other would be to troll the thread so hard that no one would ever doubt I'm mafia and the entire town would vote for me so there would be no information at all from the vote list that day. I'm outed, might as well minimize the town's gain from it, right?
If we let this happen and realize on day 3 we have a double lynch and zero suspects, we might well end up in deep shit. Worst case would be we whiff both lynches and the mafia hits three more, which means 6 mafia/14 town.
Maybe my timing here is bad. Maybe I'm jumping a bit too far too fast; I'm certainly not perfect. The idea behind me looking for other targets is to get as much information public as possible and to get as much discussion going on as we can.
You admit your posting was suspicious. I damn well should call you out for it. So should the rest of the town.
Good to see you didn't just disappear after being called out. Going to withdraw my vote for now. I advise the town to pick a second target to vote for so we can try to extract some information from the voting list even if Jayme is our choice at the end of the day.
---
Anyway the two "obvious" posts I was saying the town probably wants to see.
1) Voting record from yesterday. Who voted for whom + timing + reasons; who changed votes + timing + reasons. Koopie started on this but did not give as full an account as I'd like to see.
2) Look through Jimtudor's and softer's posts and draw parallels. Why would the mafia go after them? Are there any connections?
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Ok so I went through the voting from yesterday and here is the tally of every vote sorted by candidate then by time
Day 1 Voting
+ Show Spoiler +Shikyo
teks (23:46 18th)
softer (3:50 19th)
Knutti (3:54 19th)
EsbenPM (4:11 19th)
l10f (6:37 19th)
so no fek (7:00 19th) (to JeeJee)
Pawsom (9:29 19th)
omG.[RaYnE] (10:06 19th)
clazziquai (3:30 20th)
Therapy (6:35 20th) (from abstain)
Jimtudor (10:58 20th) (from zeks)
Jimtudor
vx70GTOJudgexv (6:43 19th) (to abstain)
Phelix (7:27 19th)
wurm (11:49 19th)
The_Master (15:13 19th) (to JeeJee)
chaoser (1:51 20th)
Foolishness (4:06 20th)
iLoveKTF
Foolishness
JeeJee
BWdero (4:23 19th)
ydg (5:07 19th)
iLoveKTF (10:47 19th)
Jayme (13:23 19th)
Ra.Xor.2 (5:19 20th)
crate (5:29 20th)
zeks (6:17 20th) (from abstain)
The_Master (7:18 20th) (from Jimtudor)
so no fek (9:59 20th) (from Shikyo)
Koopie (10:28 20th)
zeks
vx70GTOJudgexv (20:47 19th) (from abstain from Jimtudor)
Jimtudor (2:23 20th) (to Shikyo)
Abstain
Shikyo (23:56 18th)
JeeJee (9:38 19th)
epicdoom (9:59 19th)
vx70GTOJudgexv (17:12 19th) (from Jimtudor; to zeks)
motbob (20:05 19th)
Therapy (0:19 20th) (to Shikyo)
zeks (4:33 20th) (to JeeJee)
no vote
Adriix33
sugiuramidori
Vote changes (chronological order; reasoning alongside if I could find any):
+ Show Spoiler +vx70GTOJudgexv (from Jimtudor to abstain)
reason: new candidates, temporary
vx70GTOJudgexv (from abstain to zeks)
reason: best platform
zeks (from abstain to JeeJee)
reason: gut feeling to trust JeeJee over Jimtudor (?)
Therapy (from abstain to Shikyo)
reason: zeks and JeeJee proposed lynching him
The_Master (from Jimtudor to JeeJee)
reason: character role post. Says he might support Shikyo more but is voting for second-in-command; timing right after some suspicion of Jimtudor's "bandwagon" voters
so no fek (from Shikyo to JeeJee)
reason: JeeJee's role-helper post
Jimtudor (from zeks to Shikyo)
reason:"Changed my vote to Shikyo as I feel he is the strongest candidate with the best plan that has a chance at top office."
I do not feel up to trying to make connections just yet so here are the facts I could find in what I think is a far easier to peruse format.
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Jayme: do you have anything to say or are you just going to go silent?
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What day 2 clues are pointing to Jayme? I thought we were still on the "crepuscular" possible clue?
I'd be surprised if Pyrry were using the same people in clues on consecutive days too (though of course more possible links to 1 person = more likely at least one of them is actually real).
At this point though I'd be 1a2a3a'ing through the inactives list if I could. They're only hurting us by staying quiet.
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Foolishness : L :: Pyrry's Mafia Game : Qatol's Mafia VIII
?
I hope so anyway.
Dude you're being absurdly aggressive. I guess I have my answer about who would provoke discussion if I didn't.
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I looked through the thread and found all of softer's and Jimtudor's posts.
Since Jayme seems to be a lock to die today (he has 16 votes already !) I think we should start discussing who else to look for. I'm not confident in being able to find much in these posts but it can't hurt to look, no?
Softer's posts
+ Show Spoiler +softer wrote:
We can't really get strong suspicions off one days clues, and since most of us are new it's hard to get anything from behavior this early as well.
But we have to start somewhere and get some discussion going. The wording "eerily crepuscular" stood out to me. The cat is a crepuscular animal, and Jayme has a picture of a cat thats definitely eerie in his profile. softer wrote:
I just want to reiterate why lynching an inactive is good the first day.
A common mafia strategy is to lay low. By forcing people to post, the mafia will have to come out or risk being lynched. Making them post gives them the chance to make mistakes. An important part of finding mafia is seeing what they say, look for inconsistencies or outright lies.
That being said, I'm gonna vote for Shikyo for now. He seems to be smart and sincere. softer wrote:
The race for mayor is pretty close still.. Could the contenders please state their strategy for the day 1 lynch? softer wrote:
Yep, there's really nothing much to do now, except wait for dawn and see what happens.
As for the mafia, I think the instinct, especially with new players, is to try to lay low and stay off the radar. I could be wrong, but they probably try to post just enough to not be marked as inactive.
Congratulation to the elected, hope you softer wrote:
Oops, premature ejacu..posting
continuing:
..hope you rise to the task and lead town to victory
Jimtudor's posts:
+ Show Spoiler +Jimtudor wrote:
Okay, this is preliminary clue searching. The first thing I did was read into Erlend Loe. So he is an author from Norway that writes novels and childrens book that have a style that is characterized as naive.
There are three players from Norway in this game. Softer, Teks, and knutti.
IF there is a mafia among the three, I feel it is teks>knutti>softer. Teks as he got a cartoon picture that would fit in a children's book, and then knutti who pyrr has absolutely nothing else to go on other than being from norway and being knutti?
Too early to tell, but that's my 5 cent for now. Jimtudor wrote:Alright, I am throwing my hat into the ring to be sheriff. Here are the qualities that I bring. 1. Veteranship: I have played in a few mafia games and observed and analysed from the rest with which I was not a part of. I will bring that experience into crushing mafia skulls. 2. Gamesense: Just like Aces....or close....:D... Seeing is believing when I use the bully pulpit to smash mafia ploys of deceit, vote trains, and bandwagon leading. 3. Activity: I will not rest from the break of dawn to midnight until all mafia is steamrolled to the grave. That means, constant vigilence of posts and mafia vote trains, then gouging their eyes out. 4. Detective Skills: I will use my honed detective skills to find those rotten eggs in the box, and then cracking it. 5. Open government: Quick response to any inquries, and will do what i can to direct good plans of action. 6. Equality: This will be a town that will not tolerate racism, every person of every colour should feel they have the ability to get ahead as long as they work hard.... + Show Spoiler +I will use the first vote to lynch inactive, of course one that has clues that could be logical gets priority, unless clue analysis is unusually strong for day 1. Jimtudor wrote:Edit to previous post It should read Equality: This will be a town that will not tolerate racism, every person of every colour should feel they have the ability to get ahead as long as they work hard.... + Show Spoiler +Did not mean to be racist, sorry. Foolishness: That is true. There shouldn't be an iron rule that only inactives are going to be lynched or else all the mafia is just going to post something useless or echo off of each other and get out of that list. Lynching suspicious ones could theoretically be better, but behavioural analysis can also be inaccurate on the first day, and clues could be red herrings... So the best thing if you are townie is to post something that is thought out and useful, but post! On May 19 2009 01:24 Jimtudor wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2009 00:31 BWdero wrote:That would be Black Bolt, King of the Inhumans. @chaoser Even if we do lynch an inactive blue we don't really hurt the town because they were inactive anyways. I support killing off an inactive. But only if no major suspects come up. Seeing how this is only the first day I seriously doubt any suspects will come up. Seeing as how day 1 clue analysis is rubbish and only an idiot mafia would betray himself so early. In the parking lot, LTT, the love child of the late L and Samsung Khan's captain, read an Erlend Loe novel in his Audi sports car. Without warning, his + Show Spoiler +windshield shattered and a wave of glass ripped through LTT's face. Passing out from blood loss, LTT's head slumped, + Show Spoiler +sounding a horn that would not be heard in time . Hi, I guess the Black bolt can do that no. Make a sound that would rip the glass. For Ilovektf, I am not convinced yet teks. Poor flash, well he wasn't really slumping that hard + Show Spoiler +especially prior to yesterday night's games. . But potentially nice find anyways. Yes, I would want more members to throw their hat into their ring. Shikyo your campaign platform showed that you are organized and thoughtful, and I like your logic that I get from your writing. Some obvious stuff, but your incarnation policy is solid, and I would implement that if elected. On May 19 2009 05:09 Jimtudor wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2009 04:37 Shikyo wrote:
JeeJee's platform is based mostly on "I'm experienced"... which still is better than the other candidates', I guess. Lynching inactives is always good, though. Which brings me to vx70GTOJudgexv.
I disagree. To be fair, my posts tone was a little off kilter for comedic effect. I have stated I am experience. I too have been green, blue and red as well and know the way around. I have promised to lynch inactives unless extraordinary circumstances occur. I promised constant activity and clue analysis, he says he can't always be active. I see you are now pretty much a lock for sheriff but I would like to support the town as mayor. On May 19 2009 14:06 Jimtudor wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2009 11:46 Foolishness wrote:
Shikyo, just because I've only made a few posts has nothing to do with you getting elected or acting suspicious. Just because you have made the most posts doesn't make you a winner.
With that being said, I am running for sheriff.
Why? Because I am not Shikyo.
So far this game, Shikyo has done nothing but post a lot and write a very charismatic ballot. He has run uncontested, and none of the other candidates are willing to step up against him. There has hardly been any debate between him and the other candidates. We cannot let him gain control of an office position so easily like this.
There are many suspicious activities going on with his office running. He labeled out the scenario how mafia get 6 votes, and he chooses to obstain his vote, thereby gaining his chance of him getting into office. It is necessary to point out how the mafia would probably not all vote for the same person, but in the scenario where one person is dominating they clearly would.
Shikyo has been obtaining votes from the most random of people. People who have not backed up their reasoning and people who have not voted at all. In one case, someone clearly stated that they were voting for one of the other candidates (although this was prior to Shikyo's running), but then voted for Shikyo without saying a word about it (and then latter ignored this fact when he finally did post).
Shikyo has seemed like a good candidate until I raised possible suspicion about him. I clearly was not accusing him of anything, I just wanted to hear what he had to say. Instead he retorted almost angerily at me, implying that my posts meant nothing since I have only posted a few times. It is only natural for me to want to make sure we as a town are electing the best people into office. Someone who goes on the defensive when asked why the situation does not add up is not the person we want in office.
However I do not possess any qualities that would make me good candidate other than I am not Shikyo. This would be my first mafia game on TL, and none of you have any information about me. But this is all irrelevant. You can cast your vote and put a suspicious person into office or put your vote to better use. Just because he posts a lot does not make him the best choice.
You can vote for Shikyo and secure the fact that there will be suspicious happenings, or you can vote for me to ensure the town a victory. Even if you don't want to vote for me, pick someone else besides Shikyo. The intention of your post seems swell enough but you have not said anything substantial to back it up. It's pretty obvious why he is running uncontested, because frankly his activity and his posts are a cut above the other candidates right now. Your campaign message is: Run away from the bogeyman. Well, that's not going to cut it. Where's your plan? How are we going to succeed? Where are the flaws in Shikyo's statements? Have you got any clues that might cast suspicion on him? I do agree with Crate that confirming townies is a high priority for town. A confirmed vigi hit is the cleanest to do but a successful medic protection as outlined would definately be ideal. I am thinking of complications right now and will post more about it soon. Jeejee, I had an eye on you ever since my preliminary clue search but these are so weak that I wanted to wait for one more day and wasn't putting it out. Now, after the echo chamber that you had with ilovektf and quiet support makes me more skeptical. Meanwhile, downstairs, Qatol was using the Triumvirate Building's spacious archery range for target practice. As he looked down to reload, another figure crossed the room from the other side. The mafioso crept behind Qatol and took out his knife. Qatol never shot another arrow. Fear is the strongest driving force in competition. Not fear of one's opponent, but of the skill and high standard he represents; fear, too, of not acquitting oneself well. In the achievement of higher performances, of beating formidable rivals, the athlete defeats fear and conquers himself. -Franz Stampfl Your profile contains pretty much the only reference to athletic competition in the whole game. Franz Stampfl was a famous coach that had somewhat revolutionary ideas for how to train your body and practice for your sport, although he specialized in training runners he also trained other athletes in other fields. He was a noted olympic trainer, got his trainees many golds. The only place where archery is relevant today is athletic competition and the olympics. Is this enough to say he is mafia, not even close. Is this enough to give you pause to vote for what appears to be the most important office for a mafia to gain, maybe. Unfortunately, it would seem I am being self-serving. So in the end, it's up for the town to decide... Of course, town, I do hope you give me your vote. Jimtudor wrote:
As of now, the day 1 lynch will be an inactive or de facto inactive player. The one with the strongest logical clues towards it and/or inconsistent behaviour from previous games will get lynched. I am not sure about Jayme yet. Will be back with more.
The way I use my following votes will be both clue based and behaviour based depending on the strength of the evidence with that particular vote. My votes should align mostly with the general sentiment of the town unless I sense a bs/bandwgon vote led by mafia. Jimtudor wrote:
(about day 1 lynch)
No, I haven't. I got a timetable from Pyrr that I need to send it in before 8PST. I won't miss it and I will tell once I made a decision. On May 20 2009 08:06 Jimtudor wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2009 07:08 teks wrote:On May 20 2009 06:38 Ra.Xor.2 wrote:
Something interesting to note, this may or may not be a clue. Erlend Loe is a nowegian writer. Three players in this game are from Norway: Knutti, Teks, and Softer This has also been mentioned before. It MAY be something. We won't know until DT's are allowed to act. I'm thinking it's just a wordplay on Erlend Loe's book L + Audi TT -> forming the nick LTT. But you're right, we have to keep it in mind when more clues arrive. On May 20 2009 06:11 l10f wrote:On May 20 2009 06:08 teks wrote:
I'm thinking the same thing. I first thought the mafia candidate was JeeJee, seeing how he was voted on by Jayme and iLoveKTF who already had connections to the possible clues, and BWdero, who was suspected by Shikyo. The latest posts from JeeJee have turned me though, I too think it's probably JimTudor who's the red one here, I might change my vote to JeeJee seeing how Shikyo basically already has secured his spot, and I think it's good that JeeJee agrees with zeks on who to lynch first. I'll wait a bit longer though. How do you think we should carry out the check on Jimtudor after JeeJee gets the mayor spot? He should definitely be checked out, but I don't know with what method. Lynch him? Role check him? We can't really carry out a check at all, not yet atleast. We just have to analyze clues and behavior and try to connect them with the voters of Jimtudor and Jimtudor himself. It's not certain that they are red, but it's a start to go from at least. As long as they don't get into office they haven't really gained anything, except a nice steamy pile of attention. That would be a good start for the town. Lynching one of the inactive/silent voters of Jimtudor on day2 is also a possibility. Sure, I would love to be checked if I do fail to get the mayor spot. But why would lynching me help the town. Once I turn up town aligned, does that mean the people voting for me are innocent, no. Once I turn up red, does that mean that people voting for me are red, not nessesarily. Please explain what have I done that is suspicious. Well at JeeJee, yes I forgot that my name is a minor league hockey player. It always slip my mind that until someone mentions it in a mafia game. But still, the coach is more track and field, I didn't connect it with a sports team. Seriously though, my lack of posts for like a few hours is enough to be suspicious. I promised constant activity, but not one that means i am at my computer for 24/7. Jimtudor wrote:
Please elaborate as in why am I under suspicion other than I ran for office. Jimtudor wrote:
Well, then I don't have much to defend against...
Other than the fact that I sure hope that Teks elimination number game is wrong and that for all the 'top' contenders for office, one should be mafia. Jimtudor wrote:
@Koopie:
Fair enough.
Changed my vote to Shikyo as I feel he is the strongest candidate with the best plan that has a chance at top office. Jimtudor wrote:
I am just waiting for night. I promise after the night post for some good analysis. Jimtudor wrote:
Edit:
I meant the day post.
I probably won't be doing this in the future, since the number of posts I'd be linking would grow quite large in the future, but it wasn't too much work to go c&p this much
Why did the mafia hit Jimmy? Same reason we thought he would be helpful to keep around, probably. He was showing signs of being active, promising clue analysis, and generally looking like an asset to the town. It also might help to clear suspicion from those who voted for him and cast suspicion on people denouncing him; I'm not really willing to buy into either of those thoughts though. I don't make much of his death and my guess is still that the mafia got lucky on him being a BG.
More interesting is softer's death, as he was definitely under-the-radar from our point of view. The first two posts he made contributed to the town--clue analysis (again!) and telling people to be active. He voted for Shikyo, but again I don't really think that that affects whether Shikyo looks suspicious or not.
What I'm getting here is that the mafia wants to snipe people who were doing clue analysis, probably in the hopes of landing a DT. Considering that half of the mafia may be hiding amongst inactive townies and the fact that forces us to try to use clues to find reds, and this looks like a sensible strategy to me. Hitting softer worked out nicely since he wasn't likely to be medic protected either.
Anyone who did solid clue analysis today would likely be in danger if the mafia continue this strategy (assuming my conjecture is right anyway); of course now that I've posted this....
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JeeJee wrote:
of course the inactives are hurting us
the problem is, there's like ten of them, by the time we're done with them, we're screwed.
Inactives, if you're town-aligned and want the town to win start posting :<
Unfortunately I don't think this is likely to happen 
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JeeJee wrote:well, let's throw out a name like l10f.
lemme pull up his history
36 27. l10f - bandwagon, puppydog, 'large arg from minute details'(*), against jimmy&the_master, for inactives, votes, no posts 3/5##
comments?
(i won't be around to read them i'm going to sleep)
we have like what, another 24 hours of day left? ho-hum.
I'm guessing this is just a suggestion and not something from "a little birdo"? I'll entertain it for now.
I still think it's interesting that he'd played Mafia before but didn't realize that bandwagons were bad for the town. Also didn't quite understand the medic list at first glance, which is also curious.
l10f wrote:
I don't think it's a good idea for anyone to change votes unless they're going from abstain -> someone.
I find this amusing when based on the amount of vote-swapping going on in the other game. In context it mostly makes sense though since the candidates' platforms didn't really change much over the course of day 1.
Lots of one-liner agreement posts (clearly not important) in day 1.
l10f wrote:And, I don't think you are red, but I don't think you have the right to call people "stupid." I'm sure everyone here has the intelligence to play this game well, they are just lacking the experience. Therefore you shouldn't call them "stupid players."
If you wanted clarification, I know full well that the people here are all smart enough to theoretically play well and yes inexperience is probably the biggest cause of dumb posts....
Rest of that post is repeating stuff others had said, which doesn't sound too useful to me...
Well my analysis so far says he hasn't done much useful (not like half of the players here have...) and I find his lack of inexperience very puzzling considering he's played mafia before. Yes I realize it's not the same IRL as on this forum, but still, not understanding bandwagon = bad? Either he made a mistake and he's not as inexperienced as he claims, or...?
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Sidenote
holy shit that post is HUGE
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goddamn messed up the formatting on a couple of those quotes
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Jayme may have sidestepped the cat clue, but if you believe our "little birdo" talking to Jayme (not sure I do, but I don't see how JeeJee lying about that clue could possibly help if he's not on our side--of course, the "DT" might be lying) it's irrelevant anyway since it doesn't point to Jayme.
The only thing I see suspicious about Jayme's behavior is that he's dropped off the planet as far as this game is concerned.
Anyway, if you believe there is other significant clue evidence against Jayme I would like you to point it out to me. I looked through this entire topic several times yesterday and I'm too lazy to do it again right now. If you refuse to find me this evidence rest assured I will get unlazy before the Day 3 morning post and look for it myself.
I don't see great evidence for lynching anyone else right now, but then the only reason I see to lynch Jayme over another inactive is that it gives us a tiny bit of info about our "birdy" ... and that is not much info since we might have missed the real clue toward Jayme or perhaps there is as yet no clue toward him. Or maybe he's an innocent green. I dunno. He's going to die anyway at this rate though.
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btw
teks wrote:
and if he does turn out green or blue (let's hope he's not blue atleast), we should have some more material to work on, such as investigating the people who were pushing for his lynch (bandwagon starters).
we don't get much info from the votelist for today because only epicdoom and me voted for anyone but Jayme today. There are a few people who refused to jump on the bandwagon early on, but at this point votes mean nothing anyway so who cares? I don't read anything in any votes made since Jayme got to ~15-16 votes. Hell there probably aren't enough active players among the people who have already voted to change the lynch vote by the end of the day even if we get someone roleclaiming mafia.
We might be able to read something from who votes for double lynch, but I'm not certain of that either.
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And I guess happy birthday to Raxor. Too bad I already unvoted or I could give you a present
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lol dude you read my post wrong
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I don't think there are any solid clues to Jayme, and I am asking judge why he thinks there are.
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And the info on the "birdy" -- if Jayme ends up red, we have a bit (not much) of info saying he might not be legit; if Jayme ends up green we get no doubts but certainly don't gain much confidence either.
(in case you've forgotten, the "birdy" said that "crepuscular" doesn't point to Jayme)
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If you have a direct question to ask me, ask it. I'm playing Brawl right now and the clues aren't going to change, there's no hurry for me to look up info. Jayme is dead either way.
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It's not that I think Jayme is innocent (I have already said every inactive looks suspicious, and if we had time I'd propose lynching them all). I do think there's no more of a case against him than against other inactives, and perhaps less since I don't recall any solid clue links against him except the "crepuscular" one.
Others saw his reaction on day 1 as suspicious; I didn't.
This is what I've already said.
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I think I'm going to start using the word "stupid" in every single post I make and hope people are too stupid to see past my stupid word stupid choice stupids.
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Do you think we can get two mafia each on day 3 and 4?
Considering the wealth of names that have been coming up as suspects I'm completely confident. Sure.
+ Show Spoiler +On the one hand, double lynch tomorrow is the least risk of the town just getting overwhelmed by a mafia bandwagon (especially if Shikyo is red, which gives the mafia two extra votes). On the other hand ... not sure we'll have enough information to out two mafia by the end of Day 3. Waiting till day 4 doesn't doom the town even if we whiff today and Day 3 as long as we have a near-perfect record from there and as long as inactives don't doom us. My first guess is that I'd rather wait but with the way this town jumped down Jayme's throat I'm certainly not positive that's the right choice. If the mafia get just a couple innocents to start a bandwagon then those players don't check back.... + Show Spoiler +
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@Shikyo: My suspicions of you are for the reasons I cited much earlier today. The post you quoted did not accuse you of being mafia, it simply said that if you are then the mafia have 2 more votes, which means they can much more easily overwhelm a split town vote. There's no possible way to rule out the possibility you're mafia just yet, is there? Hence I considered it.
Will post more when I catch up.
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And since you've read past games, you should know how ineffective clue analysis has traditionally been.
We're 0/1 on it so far this game too. :p
(seriously, next post will be after I catch up)
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edit: fuck I'm stupid i forgot to add stupid to my two stupid posts above this stupid one
Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Somewhere, an adorable cat went hungry.
haha
@l10f:
Start contributing then.
I understand what you mean about the level of play; my offline games were nowhere near as analyzed as this one.
@Shikyo:
I can't defend Koopie. I thought she'd be a lot more active. She hasn't been. Been a loss to the town for sure. Vote for her if you think she's suspicious. I think she's not, but I understand that no one else has really seen much from her.
Re: iLoveKTF
I say we wait for iLoveKTF's contribution that he's promised before saying more about him. Yes he's been less helpful than I anticipated. Yes perhaps the "we need as many kills as possible" is a hint that he's mafia. Flipflopping on the medic list doesn't look good.
iLoveKTF wrote:
@ Jayme's death. Why are you guys so mad/upset about him flipping green. Its not like you suggested anyone else.
I did. Hell I even voted for him. In retrospect switching to abstain was stupid, but too late to change that now. At least we have to come up with two suspects tomorrow.
If we just fucking bandwagon on day 3....
My advice is to hold off on voting for a while after day 3 begins; I will take a look at the votelist later to see if this is true, but my suspicions are that many people who voted quickly for Jayme did not contribute much if anything to the thread after voting.
chaoser wrote:
2) DTs, medics, mouths, get in touch with THE ELECTED, i'm not saying role claim, i mean say you're the mouth or that you have info or something. It's better than us sitting around not doing anything!
Don't hint at your role if you do this -_-
I don't trust either of them enough to roleclaim.
At this point I'd rather just encourage activity in this thread anyway.
I'm not working much behind the scenes myself; the few people I've been in PM contact with all initiated it and I've tried to keep as much information public as possible. I don't plan to do lots of PM'ing either ... though if anyone has something they want to tell me in private I will be glad to listen.
---
Damn this day was slow ... I really expected more from the town. Even most of the day 1 contributors seemed pretty quiet to me on day 2.
Anyway assuming we can find enough contributors to fill out a medic list coming up with one for this night should be a top priority seeing as medic actions are due in <24 hours. I will look through day 2 to see what I think before I go to bed.
TODO: Look for clue analysis on Jayme from day1/day2 that is not the "crepuscular" clue. This, however, can wait until tomorrow (real-time).
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medic list?
crate
vx70GTOJudgexv
zeks
teks
ydg
SugiuraMidori
Hard filling up the list imo. :s
Here's Shikyo's earlier suggestion:
On May 22 2009 04:57 Shikyo wrote:
Medic List:
crate
zeks
teks
vx70GTOJudgexv
ydg
iLoveKTF
Basically, I've added ydg because he has been useful to the town, primarily with his clue analysis. Otherwise, the once change was that Jimtudor was removed for obvious reasons.
Judge's is identical.
Both were made before Midori posted anything day 2
Goodluck in choosing your saves medics.
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On May 23 2009 16:47 Shikyo wrote:
Why is SugiuraMidori on the list?
Got a better sixth?
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shikyo hi5 that's enough "stupid" in one post to make me proud
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I want town to win but i dont want to use modkills to do it.
]=
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one thing quick: I think it is very unlikely Pyrry would use zeks's name in a clue when he has some good info in his profile to form a clue from. The "winning isn't everything quote" can be attributed to either Vince Lombardi or to Red Sanders and there are tons of places to go from there.
I'm not sure about compressed air causing a windshield to shatter either.
However I haven't had time to think about what zeks has posted yet so I am not jumping to any conclusions right away.
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I am going to preface this by saying it is possibly the worst-organized thing I have ever written and I will (after dinner) be correcting that by coming up with some coherent thoughts. However there are a couple important questions I am asking in this post. I will be coloring those blue for convenience. Thank you.
@Qatol: nice rule.
On May 23 2009 16:49 crate wrote:Got a better sixth?
teks wrote:
What do I make of this? zeks thinks I'm a possible medic.
He sent me the same PM.
I want to know how many people he PM'd and what their responses were.
+ Show Spoiler +(my response)
My guess is one of the first three candidates for office is mafia.
Also Pawsom is probably just really dumb, but if he's not really dumb he's probably mafia.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
who do you suspect as mafia based on behaviour?
teks wrote:
What a surprise! He wants a DT to rolecheck "someone" and then roleclaim "safely" to that person.
DTs looking for town is bad in general.... DTs want to find blues or (ideally) reds.
teks: the problem I have with your analysis is that you seem to postulate that zeks is GF, then take that as an axiom in your posts. "Look at how all this information makes sense if zeks is GF."
Since you bring up lack of contributions so much teks--give me a list of every single person who you felt made significant contributions on day 1. And day 2, if you feel up to it. If you want me to do the same, I'll go look back through the topic for you and do it.
teks wrote:
but the mere idea of suggesting himself for this idea makes this that more suspicious.
I agree here. Especially since, as far as I know, zeks hasn't roleclaimed blue. Rolechecking someone who roleclaims towny...?
I admit I only skimmed over anything involving DTs earlier and I regret doing that now.
Shikyo wrote:
And as already mentioned, he hasn't done anything useful, either.
You didn't feel like pointing this out earlier? I'll go back over zeks's posts myself when I get time; I didn't get a chance to check TL till, what, 4 PM my time today?
Shikyo wrote:
I had a fascinating PM conversation with zeks before.
I want the timestamps on that convo before I look at it any more. I have no idea when that took place.
Shikyo I have a hard time reading your style and I am going to say that right now. I am trying to read past the emotions and get to your actual arguments but I am not finding it easy.
I mention this because I manage to get completely lost here:
Shikyo wrote:
Now, what exactly is this? I would put Jimtudor, my next target, on the list because "mafia might want to have a mixed list maybe"? This doesn't even make any sense! Someone, please explain this reasoning to me.
[snip]
So let's see. Jimtudor couldn't have been ignored and he needed to be a part of the mediclist? If you remember, people indeed were really suspicious about him and I could have EASILY just said that he was too suspicious. Man, didn't I say this somewhere before? What do you mean no choice?
So wait a second! You say that I had no choice but to put Jimtudor on my list. But just a second ago you were implying that it was suspicious for me to have put him on the list? That I might want to have a mixed list? Does this make any sense to anyone else?
I will re-read this and try to make sense of it. Right now I am getting lost in your words.
zeks wrote:
Town is in utter chaos. Massive finger pointing at almost every suspect possible.
I don't buy it at all. That second sentence is laughable, unless you really believe that the only suspects possible are you and (perhaps) Shikyo. Just yesterday (real-time) I was decrying the lack of any discussion.
Your first paragraph reminds me very much of this, by the way:
Adaptability for when the improbable but inevitable happens. Lose nothing unnecessarily. Chinese triangles.
zeks wrote:
Why would a GF kill people you suspect?
http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=WIFOM
We'll see how applicable this is later.
zeks wrote:
It's [the medic list] just a stupid list of who posts the most
And do you have a better criterion, in this game that has a bare handful of people saying anything?
teks wrote:
As I said early in the thread, I would think that the mafia would take time to organize before running for mayor.
Personally I think that any timing after Shikyo's entry is too late for a mafia entry. My support here is about as good as yours, which is to say there isn't really any.
Joining the race late is a great way to not get elected, especially in a game with people so willing to vote early and not change votes. If you doubt that our game is proceeding like that, take a look at the voting records from the past two days.
teks wrote:
I was just remembering someone using the same phrase I was going to use, "posting a lot of fluff and no real content".
That was me. I stand by my initial assessment of Shikyo's day 1 posting.
teks wrote:
I don't want to be lynched. I was stating that not as an ultimatum, but to say that I believe in my case, and to state that I am indeed risking myself by accusing you, someone who actually fights back, as opposed to the inactive ones we have been lynching.
imo this doesn't help your case at all. You're using, basically, an emotional appeal here. I am going to assume for a moment that teks is town-aligned and that he wants to win.
Case 1: teks is right
Argument doesn't matter since we don't have to call him on it. The only possible case would be if teks roleclaimed DT and said that he checked if a certain clue pointed to zeks and got a yes, but he's been denying this. In that case we'd have to lynch teks first anyway to prove he's DT and town (and teks) still loses.
Case 2: teks is wrong
What does town gain from lynching teks? Nothing. He's suggesting the town hurt itself if he's wrong. In fact town loses by lynching teks and not a better mafia candidate.
Now let's look at teks being mafia and wanting to win.
Case 1: teks is right and zeks = GF
Seems unlikely to me, might be a WIFOM ploy but why sac your GF to keep a regular red safe?
Case 1a: teks is wrong but zeks = regular mafia
If teks is GF this might make sense since we can't rolecheck him, but still seems an unlikely-to-help ploy. If teks is regular mafia this doesn't make sense to me.
Case 2: teks is wrong
Now the town does gain from lynching teks.
Not a single one of these cases has teks benefiting from calling to be lynched (except maybe the one where teks is GF, but I think that's so unlikely there's basically zero chance it's true).
Just ignore his [teks's] call to be lynched please, he's not thinking soundly here. The only cases where this declaration possibly makes any logical (as opposed to emotional) sense are the cases where both zeks and teks are mafia. I don't think they're both that stupid right now.
Don't be swayed by emotional arguments people, that's bad for the town.
teks please don't make stupid emotional appeals that make no sense logically. I don't want to pick them apart so easily, there's no sport in it.
Foolishness wrote:
Although he has not directly said it, Shikyo is basically saying "one of the candidates for election has to be mafia. Well, it's not me, I don't think it's JeeJee. JimTudor is dead. Oh! Must be zeks!"
Are you forgetting? iLoveKTF and one other person you didn't mention (oh wait I remember now it's YOU) also ran for election. Jimmy's dead so he's cleared. Shikyo and JeeJee can't be cleared. Foolishness, iLoveKTF, and zeks are still alive and unless a DT r/c'd them tonight none have been rolechecked.
Shikyo wrote:
but I think I'm going to post some more accurate directions for the medics later on.
Ah! I get it! You're going to tell them to protect me tonight!
...
btw mafia please kill zeks tonight he won't be protected.
Shikyo wrote:
This post was written before zeks ran for office, meaning that he knew about my plan [rolecheck the losers] all along.
hey bro, just so no one forgets, I'd like to point out the timing of when you said we should rolecheck losers.
you were the runaway favorite to win sherrif at the time
Shikyo wrote:
think about this scenario:
you're doing it wrong again by assuming he's the gf then making his actions fit your assumption
look at his actions and make them prove your assertion
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To add to my previous comment on clues:
so no fek wrote:
I was merely linking a possible clue with someone suspected because their behavior is pretty far off.
This is the wrong way to go about clue analysis. Find stuff you think might be a clue, then find who it might link to. Do not pick a player then go find which clues might link to that player since you're going in with the assumption that that player is red.
I realize this discussion is not predicated on clues
Shikyo wrote:
So, why would the sound not be heard in time? Well, assuming the air compressor, the wind it creates is really strong, since it could shatter the glass. Isn't it only reasonable to believe that it would be able to half the traveling of the sound almost completely?
Assuming "half" is supposed to be "halt," the answer here is simply no. I'm no expert on the matter either, but I do know how sound travels; there's no way that an air compressor would be able to halt sound--especially when you consider that the air compressor would not affect the sound traveling in the opposite direction.
This clue linkage looks extraordinarily forced to me.
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I have not yet read JeeJee's posts btw, will do that now.
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my post is anything but nice lmao
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oh and I am not yet taking a stance on whether zeks is likely mafia/GF or not. I need more time to figure that one out.
I am going to come out and ask for medic protection tonight since I really don't want to die.
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Well then look at the actions, show why it makes no sense if he's green or blue, and THEN you can conclude that he's red.
Do not start at "he's red so all these actions make sense look i'll show you"
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I could probably twist actions from most anyone in the topic to make them look red if I start at "he's red"
That's why you go the other way: it's much harder to fake it unless you get someone playing on the town side who legitimately isn't helping the town at all.
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Shikyo wrote:
It doesn't make sense for him to not respond to this if he's green or blue, maybe tell who he suspects himself.
Your pronoun use here makes me want to cry. I literally have no idea who "him" is here since there is no antecedent. (I assume it's zeks?)
I don't see why you think that makes no sense if zeks is green or blue. Could you explain for me? Zeks was fishing for information and got what he wanted. I don't see teks asking a question in that last PM, so I don't see the necessity to respond.
Shikyo wrote:
In his DT R/C plan, it doesn't make sense for him to not think that the probability of R/Cing Godfather isn't large enough.
1/31; seems fairly good odds to me. However, he did suggest himself as the target--makes no sense to roleclaim towny then call a DT to r/c you (waste of a check--you really want blues/reds); that makes him either blue, red, or GF posing as blue.
What do you think the chances are the GF would pose as blue instead of green?
zeks, are you a vanilla townie?
You can choose to respond or not, but right now I think this is an interesting question to ask. There really isn't a right answer to it at this point, is there?
Shikyo wrote:
If he's a green or blue, it makes no sense for him to talk about the medic list but then not suggest a list of his own.
Ok. So everyone who has talked about a medic list but hasn't proposed one is mafia?
Lynch JeeJee, he's clearly mafia (pretty sure he didn't suggest one; I haven't checked to be positive though)
Shikyo wrote:
If he's a green or blue, his terrible arguments about the reasons behind mafia including Jimtudor on a medic list don't make sense.
Ok. Once I can figure out your reasoning there I'll let you know what I think about it.
Shikyo wrote:
Also, if he's green or blue, his defense about minor information makes no sense, instead he should be pointing out where he has been useful for the town and what about his behavior isn't mafia-like. Not about what minor mistakes the people who accuse him make.
I'll re-read his arguments and let you know what I think when I have a coherent opinion.
"et cetera"
lol
I will admit, when I saw the way you two (teks/Shikyo) presented your arguments I didn't read into them as carefully as I could have. Why bother when your entire argument is predicated on the assumption you're trying to prove? If you two had posited your arguments in the fashion I think is more effective--"here are zeks's actions, here's why he can't be green/blue, here's why he can't be a vanilla mafia, hence he is GF"--I would have read them much more carefully.
teks wrote:
Wouldn't it be the same if I turned it around? Why would he neglect mentioning a veteran hit as a possibility for the third hit? Why would he encourage the medics not to "deviate from the plan"? Why would he ask me who I think are suspicious without even requiring any reasoning for it? Why would he wiff away the GF argument in his DT rolecheck plan like it was nothing? Why would he not mention that vigi's cant hit on night one when he talked about the confirmed townie?
Well for one thing, you would get me to actually read your arguments carefully if you had done it the other way 'round
The other thing--mafia would love to do it backwards. They know who they don't want to implicate, so they'll pick out someone who looks maybe a bit suspicious, then they'll go this way--let's assume that player is mafia; now how do I prove it? Is acting like mafia a good thing for townies?
teks wrote:
If you are implying that I used zeks' lack of contribution as an argument for being GF, I only did that because I, earlier in the thread, had the feeling that he was doing a lot for the town, but when I read through the posts, I saw that he really didn't.
Did you think this before you postulated zeks as GF, or after
The correct answer is, of course, "before," and I'd be surprised if you don't say that (but see WIFOM). If the real answer is "after"--think about how that supports my assertion that you went about this backward.
You don't have to answer this--we don't get any info from your answer right now.
Anyway I do have dinner soon. I will be back later. Hopefully I'll be able to construct my thoughts before the end of this night.
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If you know what you want to see, you will often see it even if it isn't there.
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You'll see what I think before the end of this night. I promise it.
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Foolishness wrote:
Nobody voted for either us, hardly anyone even paid attention to us. NOBODY CARES!
Go look at my votelist for day 1, and notice I listed both you and iLoveKTF as candidates there despite neither of you receiving a vote. Stop being stupid.
Foolishness wrote:
If you want something more concrete to go by, I have heard many experienced players in the mafia realm say that anyone who doesn't get any votes in the election is probably innocent. What does that tell you?
bro go find who said that in this topic
oh wait
it was me
saying
that
i think that
ilovektf was probably innocent
since
he
received exactly no votes in the race
hi5 bro
you're seeing things that arent there
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Right now I am going through and compiling all of zeks's posts by the way.
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haha I'm glad someone is picking up on my style
right now I'm going through the topic and compiling every zeks post into a text file and I will look at them when I'm done
I will not finish before dinner
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also
i know you'll say it
yes i'm dodging
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Well my time probably got limited a bit; my friends just called and they're coming over at some point but I will not renege on my promise to look over zeks's posts.
Here is the complete list in chronological order.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote:
I don't agree with lynching an inactive the first day. Since this is a newbie friendly game, those with blue roles might be more inclined to stay lurking since they know they have an important role and don't want to die so early. I remember when I was a medic (many times) all I thought about was staying alive so I can at least be able to contribute with protections each night - thus I stayed quiet and only communicated through PMs.
Also, with 30 players we have a much higher chance of lynching a poor blue this time around. I understand that there could be true green inactives, but to randomly pick someone imo is really dangerous. I suggest choosing someone that is both inactive and has somewhat of a clue pointing to that person.
Right now looking at all the platforms Shikyo has the most detailed and from first glance it does make him look the most trustworthy. Although the other candidates boast "experience", to me that really isn't the most important thing. It's the plan that the person comes up with that will attract my vote.
The problem is we really only have 3-4 real candidates running for mayor/sheriff. Shikyo seems like a shoe-in for sheriff with the mayor position up for grabs.
So with that said...
I'm going to be running for Mayor.
I've played in a couple mafia games previously. Didn't really say much or do much, but after much observation I am willing to use all that I understand for the town's benefit.
My plan:
1. Day 1 Lynch - I'd like for the town to vote for the day 1 lynch. Although if I get elected I have the choice, I am willing to let the town decide on who gets the axe day 1. This of course would only work if we collectively or majoritively agree on one person right now before the elections are over.
2. Town web -
a) Vigi Plan
I think Crate brought up a great point about the trouble of getting a confirmed towny. The vigi plan has some flaws though. The vigi can't roleclaim and announce his hit to the whole town because a mafia could just do the same. I noticed in the day post that the mafia don't have names. So we wouldn't really know if a new vigi has come out and performed his announced hit.
b) Medic plan
Nowhere does it say that the medic will know the role of the person he has saved. I agree that it is more likely for a medic to save a mafia hit than a vigi hit, but as a medic in previous games myself, it's pretty hard to judge who is going to get hit every night (that or I was a horrible medic lol). Also, in the less likely case of saving a mafia from a vigi - the medic may mistrust the saved mafia for a good guy. In the case that we do not get a successful block, then we should move on to another plan that I am suggesting: plan C.
c) Detective role-check
Depending on how far we get with the medic plan, we might have to consider the ultimatum which is to have a DT rolecheck someone - which would be the safest way, unless you manage to unluckily land on the godfather; then theres no way back. The chance of landing on the godfather is slim though, so I deem this the safest plan and most viable after using trying the medic plan.
If I do get elected, I will get 3 votes. I plan on voting on the basis of behavioural analysis and clues, with clues being 2nd most important (exceptions of course). I will try to share as much as I know with everybody to keep everyone out of the dark. As for the double-lynches, I hope that they will be used as soon as the town web gets rolling.
I hope I have said enough to convince you all to give me a chance, and I promise I will do my best to paint the walls of Fluidville bright red.
(I hope that wasn't bad for my first thread post)
Just realized theres a player named teks in this game - I hope you guys don't mistake me for him, my name is Zeks.
Thanks for reading! On May 20 2009 01:09 zeks wrote:For those who haven't read my platform, I would urge you to do so - it is at the top of this page. I want to pose a question to town: once the mayor does get elected today, who would you like to see get lynched? I also want to reiterate that no one should be PMing their roles to the new elected Sheriff and Mayor until further confirmation. Our activity in this game has been pretty disappointing. The more lurkers there are the more it benefits the reds. Come on out people! The last 3 pages have pretty much been arguing about elections, and we've seem to forget about our first day clues (however vague they may be). I'll try to get some clue analysis done by the end of elections. Anyways I've come up with the inactive list: Posted very little: 7. motbob - ran for Sheriff 15. ydg - clue analysis 16. sugiuramidori - clue analysis 19. therapy - talked so he didnt look like an inactive 24. Knutti - didn't really say much, see pg4 26. Koopie - forgot what he said but wasn't too important 29. phelix - didn't really say much, see pg4 30. bwdero - supports killing inactive even if he's blue, minor clue analysis Never posted:5. omG.[RaYnE] 6. clazziquai 13. adriix33 18. Ra.Xor.2 31. epicdoom Show nested quote +I'll address this right now.
What clues?
The only thing I have seen even remotely linked to me is the word "creep" and my pet zergling icon. I don't need to remind you that we have at least 8 players with zerg icons playing this game. You will be rather hard pressed to validate anything based solely on that.
What about the "eerily crepusclar" clue - with your cat in the profile? Hope you can explain that a little. On May 20 2009 01:27 zeks wrote:
@BWDero:
Sorry, might have mixed you up with someone else. On May 20 2009 02:49 zeks wrote:
To be safe I suggest we try to find clues that may point to the inactives so we can have a better shot at hitting a red. I am also supportive if we were to lynch Jayme based on clues. On May 20 2009 05:07 zeks wrote:Based on clues: Jayme Other than that: I choose therapy. Justification on therapy: His one post: Show nested quote +Hi guys, just chiming in here so I don't get killed for inactiveness. This is my first mafia game besides playing with about 15 friends around 2 years ago so I'm probably not going to be saying anything too profound. I haven't really been swayed by any of the potential sheriff's speech's so far, they sound reasonably intelligent but don't state anything that's beyond just general knowledge or logic. If I dunno who to vote for should I just abstain or should I take a shot in the dark? The majority of us have agreed to lynch an inactive for first lynch, and the whole purpose of his one post is so that he won't be on the chopping block for this lynch. It is because of this that makes me suspicious of him. He may have posted once, so it looks like he's better than the ones that haven't posted, but I think his post was as good as nothing. Furthermore, his profile has pretty much one thing to relate clues to: the quote: "Let's start a revolution so I can break some shit." I am linking this to the last part of day 1: Show nested quote +Without warning, his windshield shattered and a wave of glass ripped through LTT's face. Passing out from blood loss, LTT's head slumped, sounding a horn that would not be heard in time. This isn't the strongest clue, but the links are: "break some shit" -> "windshield shattered and a wave of glass..." "start a revolution" -> "sounding a horn" So because of those two counts and the majority of us wanting to lynch an inactive, I would thus lynch therapy if I were to be elected mayor. On May 20 2009 05:27 zeks wrote:
I hope the town will appreciate the information I'm disclosing to you all. I'm willing to share my thoughts publically to keep everyone informed, and I hope to hear opinions from you all on my findings.
A comeback seems improbable now for me, but I hope you all can reconsider me for Mayor. Again my platform is on page 8 if you haven't read it yet.
On May 20 2009 06:25 zeks wrote:
I suggest that as soon as DTs are allowed to act, we should start checking clues on the people who voted for Tudor (making the Tudor list).
I don't necessarily think Tudor is red at this point since I can't connect really any clues to him (I don't understand his quote, and his name is apparently a name of a hockey player), and his actions haven't really been too suspicious.
I'm also not completely 100% sold on JeeJee's alignment, but right now my gut feeling tells me to trust him over Tudor.
The mayor role has quite the big effect with the 3 votes, and in tight voting races it could really sway the result.
From the looks of this JeeJee will become mayor, and I hope you decide to go with the lynch of therapy. On May 20 2009 06:28 zeks wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2009 06:22 Ra.Xor.2 wrote:On May 20 2009 06:20 l10f wrote:On May 20 2009 06:14 Ra.Xor.2 wrote:
Role checks cannot be done night 1, and if Tudor is elected, we can no longer role check him. The same goes for JeeJee. However, if we are able to lynch one of his voters and he flips red, i think lynching him would be a smart move. Again, this can also be applied if JeeJee wins the election. So you want to lynch a voter for both JeeJee and Jimtudor, regardless of who wins? No im saying depending on who won, we can lynch one of their voters, and if he flips up red, we can be suspicious of the new mayor. If the right clues connect to one of the voters then yes; so I believe my suggestion of checking the voters first should be valid. We shouldn't be lynching just a random person off the list. On May 20 2009 07:36 zeks wrote:
I find it suspicious that The_Master is changing his vote to JeeJee after I brought up the fact that we should check clues on the people who vote for JimTudor.
On May 20 2009 11:59 zeks wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2009 10:08 Therapy wrote:
I don't understand what is so suspicious about saying that I don't have anything to add. However, if I AM lynched, and that seems to be becoming extremely likely I suggest suspicions be turned towards JeeJee and zeks as they were very quick to bandwagon against me with little to no real evidence. I'm not sure what I can really say in my defense, I'm just inexperienced and figured I was supposed to post, just couldn't think of anything to add. Guess I'll take this as a learning experience for the next game. There isn't really a "bandwagon" at all. BWDero wanted a name, and I gave him one. Why did JeeJee support the idea of lynching you? Probably because the evidence (however little it may be) seemed convincing enough to him. In terms of inactives and those with clues pointing to them, you're one of the more obvious ones. If you can point out anyone else worth lynching day 1, then please tell everyone (or at least convince JeeJee/Shikyo) that you're worth living, rather than giving up so easily this early in the game. On May 20 2009 10:10 The_Master wrote:Well, Shikyo, I thank you for not being too suspicious of me. It makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. Show nested quote +On May 20 2009 07:36 zeks wrote:
I find it suspicious that The_Master is changing his vote to JeeJee after I brought up the fact that we should check clues on the people who vote for JimTudor.
Show nested quote +On May 20 2009 12:31 zeks wrote:
There is no lynching vote, mayor gets the lynch
I read the rules and I never found anything about ties and what would happen - but most of you say its last vote = Sheriff so I suppose Shikyo is now Mayor. Shikyo probably already sent in his lynch. Show nested quote +On May 20 2009 12:33 zeks wrote:
Oops obviously I didn't read the rules well enough doh!
Let's see who's on the chopping block! Show nested quote +On May 20 2009 13:03 zeks wrote:
I take responsibility for the miss. Therapy wasn't the strongest for clues, in fact I still think Jayme and the cat is. Other than the fact that therapy did seem suspicious, the fact that no one really covered for him said a lot about his role. I was also hoping to get more input from people, especially the two elected, but I guess my finger was all it took to give therapy his end.
Hey, at least we didn't hit a blue. I guess we can call round 1 a draw?
I guess our next step is to construct the medic list.
Show nested quote +On May 20 2009 22:34 zeks wrote:
Medic list looks fine to me, I'm pretty much waiting for the Sheriff to talk and the arrival of day 2. Show nested quote +On May 21 2009 03:14 zeks wrote:
I just hope that the medics are listening right now and hopefully they won't deviate from the plan. Show nested quote +On May 21 2009 13:43 zeks wrote:On May 21 2009 11:52 So no fek wrote:Wow, Jimtudor got bodyguard. So we know he isn't mafia. Now the real question is: Was it someone trying to attack someone in office, or get rid of Jimtudor? Either way it makes me think about who's in office. We've all come to the general consensus that mafia is likely either in office, or ran for office. Killing one of the people that ran for office doesn't seem like something that would benefit them, as it would just bring more suspicion onto them. On the other hand, if mafia isn't in office, then they see the people there as a threat, and thus are going through bodyguards for that entire purpose. Of course, killing off your own bodyguards as mafia would be stupid, but it could all just be to throw us off.  You bring up some pretty good points. Let's review out all the likely scenarios: a) Jim revealed his role to mafia- Mafia would get rid of him due to the fact that he is a contributing player, and the suspicion cast on him early would probably mean the medics won't be protecting him tonight b) Jim revealed his role to the Sheriff/Mayor, and one/or both are mafia.- Now if either JeeJee or Shikyo decided to kill Jim off, I believe that wouldn't be a wise move because bodyguards protect them from potential future vigi hits. I think a mafia "elected" would prefer to have his bodyguards, of course there is the possibility of the mayor trying to get rid of the Sheriff or vice versa. This scenario is pretty farfetch'd in my opinion.
c) Jim never revealed his role to anyone, he was just a target from get the get go since he was a good contributer.- I think this is the most likely scenario. It's obvious that the town has been suspicious of Jim up until this point, and a lot of us were arguing whether to put him on the medic list or not. Because of the suspicion the medics probably weren't going to cover him tonight which lead to his death. We only had two deaths tonight, softer and Jimtudor. Obviously there are only two possible scenarios: a) Stacked hits on either softer or Jim.- After some thought I find it hard to believe that either of them took 2 hits. Softer wasn't really contributing too too much to deserve 2 hits - in fact he wasn't even on any medic lists afaik. For Jim I want to reiterate that there was already suspicion cast on him, so if mafia were smart they'd probably assume that Jim was not likely to be protected, thus only needing one hit. Of course scenario a) cannot be fully ruled out because we don't know how the mafia valued Jimtudor as a contributer. b) Someone got saved.- I think this is more likely, and in this case, I believe someone on the medic list got saved tonight. I'll true to whip up some clue analysis later. Show nested quote +On May 21 2009 23:52 zeks wrote:
I think the vigi plan has just too many flaws. The medic plan is viable and I really believe that someone got saved last night versus a vet taking a hit. Now, how far the town web has grown I don't know.
But if things get desperate and still nothing gets done, then we should go with the DT rolecheck. I think this is probably the safest plan but obviously has a great drawback of losing one rolecheck. I am willing to step up for examination, that is, you'd have to believe in me not being Godfather.
And so far there have been no clues against me afaik, but of course I'm not free from suspicion one bit. Should we try this? Up to you two DT's to decide. (Of course, if this does happen I hope only one of you rolechecks me)
Show nested quote +On May 22 2009 00:01 teks wrote:On May 21 2009 23:52 zeks wrote:
And so far there have been no clues against me afaik, but of course I'm not free from suspicion one bit. Should we try this? Up to you two DT's to decide. (Of course, if this does happen I hope only one of you rolechecks me)
I wouldn't mind doing this, but how do you suppose we can overcome these possible flaws: 1) Knowing whether or not the DT's who rolecheck you are real 2) Presenting the results of the rolecheck in this thread WITHOUT giving up the identity of the DT's to the mafia, which would lead to them getting whacked the next night (unless protected by the sheriff, but that has it downsides to it as well) 3) As you said yourself, you may be GF anyway - although it is unlikely.. Now, it's not like we can't do this without a confirmed townie, but it would make things easier. I say before we go through with this plan we should atleast wait until day 3 so the vigi's can make their hits, if one of them strikes gold we won't have to do this. 1) The DT would tell me my role. 2) I wouldn't have to disclose who's a DT anyway. I'm willing to act as the DT's mouthpiece and if we nail one then he'll turn red and you can trust me then. 3) Up to you guys to decide. There is no 100% foolproof plan, there's always a possibility that can fuck everything up. I'm basically playing a game of probabilities. On May 22 2009 01:30 zeks wrote:
Yep I talked about the possibility of me being GF. That's why you guys have to analyze my behaviour and whether any clues have pointed to me to see whether I'm trustworthy enough up to this point.
I'm not in a hurry in getting this working. We're still in good shape though we lost a bodyguard but at least we don't need to suspect Jim no more, which narrows down the list of potential mafia in the candidates/medic list.
If someone can come up with a surefire plan for day 2, by all means tell us. I'm still not convinced of using the vigi plan for many reasons stated against it. On May 22 2009 13:04 zeks wrote:Show nested quote +On May 22 2009 13:00 JeeJee wrote:On May 22 2009 12:50 crate wrote:
What day 2 clues are pointing to Jayme? I thought we were still on the "crepuscular" possible clue?
I'd be surprised if Pyrry were using the same people in clues on consecutive days too (though of course more possible links to 1 person = more likely at least one of them is actually real).
At this point though I'd be 1a2a3a'ing through the inactives list if I could. They're only hurting us by staying quiet. a little birdo told me that crepuscular does not point to jayme. of course the inactives are hurting us the problem is, there's like ten of them, by the time we're done with them, we're screwed. lol pulling an Ace? Mind to give us a name of someone u want dead? On May 22 2009 13:38 zeks wrote:JeeJee it sounds like you have a very extensive database on everyone I was hoping you could have some more justification on l10f. Foolishness I like your 'no bullshit' attitude. On May 22 2009 21:43 zeks wrote:Show nested quote +On May 22 2009 21:36 teks wrote:Great post Judge. vx70GTOJudgexv wrote:
One thing that's confusing me about the people who are accusing Shikyo because jimtudor was on the medic list is they are only accusing Shikyo. You do realize jimtudor was on other people's medic lists (including my own), right? Yet the only one they accuse of any suspicion based on that is Shikyo. Not only that, but putting Jimtudor on the medic list was a GOOD townie call, and mostly everyone agreed on it. How on earth is that suspicious? 1) Jimtudor was a bodyguard, so his spot on the list was correct 2) He was hit by the mafia How would it benefit the mafia to put their own target on the medic list? "But teks, don't you get it? If Jimtudor wasn't on the list, the medics would protect him because they think he's likely to get hit. He's high profiled, yet not on the list!" Even if the list isn't "a list on who the medics should or should not protect, only a list of the people deemed important to the town" - this is a game with a lot of new players, chances are that the medics are new players as well. The safest call for the new medic players would be to protect someone on that list because they'd know the town would support that. Mafia may want to have a mixed list maybe? Would mafia want to make the whole medic list full of mafia? On May 22 2009 23:06 zeks wrote:
Because jim was a good enough contributer that he can't simply be ignored to be part of the medic list. Use crate as an example. He's pretty much unanimously agreed upon to be part of the medic list. Mafia have no choice but to put him on their lists. Is he exempt from being hit justbecause he's on a stupid list? Hell no because it'd be more suspicious not to put him on a list when he's done so much. Medic list isn't an immunity list (like JeeJee said). In fact it might be a warning from the mafiathat even the medic list may not be as safe as we think.
On May 22 2009 23:55 zeks wrote:
I never said Jim was a good hit enough to warrant 2 hits - you can try to quote me on it.
I never said it was suspicious for you to put him on the list - you can try to quote me on that too. All I am saying is that the option of a mafia putting Jim on his/her medic list is totally probable.
I never directed anything at you, so I don't know why you're getting so defensive. Read my posts as they are.
---- HERE ENDS POSTS BEFORE ACCUSATION On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote:Town is in utter chaos. Massive finger pointing at almost every suspect possible. Reading things out of context. Drawing implications out of the air from the slightest behaviour changes. All assumptions without any solid evidence. We're basically unable to agree on anything. Someone comes up with a long post and boom I'm now a suspect. But I guess Teks you've done a damn good job on me. Teks, do you think you're so good that if I were a GF I'd pick people off your list? Your analysis has barely any good content and usually you're just restating other peoples points. Why would a GF kill people you suspect? If anything if I were a GF I'd leave them alive because I know they are green, and if you were town of course you'd be in shit trying to figure out if they're green and I could kill off others. Why would I think you're a medic? Wouldn't I ask who do you trust rather than who do you suspect? It's true I've been asking about people's suspicions, I won't lie. I asked you guys a question, you answered it. If you asked me a question, I answered it too. Teks you never asked me anything, and you're suspicious so why do I have to keep the PMs going? Show nested quote +So he is basically disregarding the whole idea because the mafia doesn't have names (why would they have names? Have they ever had names in any previous games?). He is completely disregarding the fact that if a red player was hit, only a vigi could be behind it, and that vigi should have no problems with both pointing out the clues leading to himself, and get the support of the people he reached out to prior to his hit. What I make of this is that he is against getting a confirmed townie through this method, instead of pointing out the flaws and suggesting another way of doing it, he just denies the whole idea. Okay, I admit my mistake there. I still disagree with the vigi plan because of how hard it is to orchestrate it. And yes if you were wondering, in past mafia's people had names. No I am not against a confirmed townie, because I suggested the DT-Rolecheck idea, and I listed pros and cons for all 3 ideas. Show nested quote +It's true that if a medic protected a mafia from a vigi hit, there would be no way to know if that target was mafia or not. But he is completely disregarding the fact that vigis can't hit on night 1. He, as an experienced player, should know this. He is also going on about how hard it is to block a hit, blabla, we all know that. Obviously this plan wasn't meant to be a "hey let's just block a mafia hit, then we have our confirmed townie!" but rather IF a medic blocked a mafia hit ON THE FIRST NIGHT, that medic would be safe to talk to the townie in question. Here is what I said: Show nested quote +...so I deem this the safest plan and most viable after using trying the medic plan. Page 8. I was in support of the medic plan, in fact I wanted that plan first before using my DT-rolecheck plan. Show nested quote +...pointing out the flaws and suggesting another way of doing it, he just denies the whole idea. Show nested quote +So zeks goes on to form his confirmed townie plan based on the supposed flaws of the medic and vigi plans: Don't contradict yourself. As for my pitch for mayor: If I were mafia do you know how dangerous it would be for me to run for mayor that late? First I'd be sticking my head out for suspect and second I'm probably not going to win. If I had pleaded my case for mayor earlier (around when JeeJee or Shikyo did theirs) I think I'd have a legit shot for a spot. I ran for mayor so town can see other options: I never expected to win at all. How could I win when I had my election speech as first post? I wasn't involved until page 8 when things have already boiled up. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quotes part 2: Show nested quote +Captain Obvious to the rescue! Again he is "contributing" to the town by stating something we all know already. Of course we should go on clues in addition to lynching an inactive. The fact that he wanted to lynch Jayme also corresponds with the Godfather view, since he turned out to be a townie.
After that, he makes his first (in my opinion) real contribution to the town, by cooking up some clues pointing to therapy. My theory is that he saw the Jayme case as sure-fire enough that he would be lynched on day 2, because he already had so many clues attached to him, that he decided to bring in someone new. This is not any evidence by itself, but therapy being a townie also adds up to the equation.
Then, the medic list are being formed. zeks is placed on all of them, despite not really contributing to the town apart from running for mayor and forming a clue pattern to therapy. Good job! You had me fooled as well. I guess if there is anyone who should be accused of posting loads of fluff it should be you, not Shikyo. Why don't you find me someone who suggested lynching an inactive AND with clues pointing to them? People were agreeing on me because I came up with the idea, while people like you only thought of lynching based on inactivity OR clues. I'm placed on all the medic lists because I am trusted by the town. My suggestion for therapy was a reply to BWDero when he wanted a name out there - so I gave him one. And Shikyo was pretty quick to support me without any reason. Show nested quote +I guess if there is anyone who should be accused of posting loads of fluff it should be you, not Shikyo. Trying to protect Shikyo while attacking me at the same time? Show nested quote +Of course you would hope that, you wouldn't want the medics to protect your targets, after all. The plan being the medic list? Show nested quote +No. Obviously, you are lying. As an experienced player, you knew about the possibility that a veteran got hit, and that it would be more likely than stacking hits on softer or Jim, who basically hadn't contributed at all. If anyone were to be stacked it would have been someone like softer or Judge, or even you.
Luckily, crate calls him on it instantly, so no harm done. I didn't lie. I will admit to this mistake that I missed the veteran possibility. If this is enough to warrant me guilty then so be it, but that was just my misunderstanding. Show nested quote +Basically this is a repeat of his plan in the election platform. He is probably correct that there are no clues pointing to him, but the mere idea of suggesting himself for this idea makes this that more suspicious. If he were to suggest the idea, then let's say, have the town vote on who they wanted to act as the mouthpiece, maybe it wouldn't be so blatantly obvious what is going on here. zeks has that much belief in the town not thinking he is the godfather that he is nice enough to step up! Aww, doesn't that get your eyes wet. So nice of him!
Once again, he fooled me, but thankfully there were other more experienced players who quickly figured out the risks of his plan. chaoser, Judge, Shikyo, props to you! What have chaoser, Judge, Shikyo figured out that I didn't say in my own plan? Do tell. I was the first person to bring up the godfather possibility. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I don't give a FLAMING FUCK if I'm removed from the medic list. The medic list meant shit from day 1. It's just a stupid list of who posts the most (see the correlation of most posts -> medic list? I do too!). I didn't feel ANY safer than I would be not on the medic list. If you look at teks arguments with quotes on me, he chooses the stuff he wants to quote, and leaves out the rest because it contradicts his arguments. Read my posts again and you'll see different than what he has posed.Show nested quote +I am basically laying my spot in this game on the table here, if zeks turns out innocent I take full responsibility and will let you lynch me if you see it fit. But do know that I wouldn't accuse an active and experienced player without gathering what I see as plenty of proof. This is all up to you, town, what do you think of my case? Lol and the cherry on top: the ultimatum to everyone. By the time you get lynched it'd be night 4, and if you are TOWN like you say you are, then we'd probably have hit 0 mafia till then, which is pretty much game over. What are you trying to pull an iloveKTF? Except you're smarter than him I admit. You're not going to go down that easily right? You're going to "take responsibility" on a failed lynch, rather than requesting a mod kill. You're just trying to make it seem like you have nothing to lose, putting your life on the line, empathizing with the majority of the town. That ends my rebuttal for teks. If you want me to cover anything I didn't, by all means feel free to call me out again. I will be following up with my clue analysis later on today or tomorrow, and I assure you, mine will be WAY MORE spectacular than what teks has told you. On May 23 2009 23:26 zeks wrote:Now that I've dealt with teks, let's deal with Shikyo's argument deconstruction. Show nested quote +I would like to note that zeks only did a tiny bit of clue analysis, for Therapy. In fact, he was the first person to suggest him being lynched. On the second day, zeks said that it'd also be a good thing to lynch Jayme because of the clues etc. I find it slightly suspicious that he never clue analysed thoroughly, only for those people, who in fact turned out to be innocent. And as already mentioned, he hasn't done anything useful, either. I'd also like to point out how late his first post was. Why were you so quick on lynching therapy? Oh, as I recall, you were the one who dropped the axe on him? No one even slightly challenged my case to lynch therapy. I was hoping for other options to be out there, but no one said anything. This by all means doesn't mean I'm not taking responsibility for his death. Show nested quote +
After a while I noticed something I didn't notice the first time. For only one DT? Hey, did you yourself forget that your plan was to make you the confirmed townie and get all the information about everything? Where did "only one DT" come from?
If the DT rolechecked me I'd only initially be communicating to that one DT. Show nested quote +
"Everyone is pointing fingers at each other and nothing is getting done." Is that really so? Well, let's assume that's true.. So naturally you will try to help the town fix that, right? Let's take a look at the time I sent the last PM, "I see.".
I agree with you that I haven't been the biggest help lately. But I assure you, and everyone else that it will all change by tonight or tomorrow morning. Show nested quote +Mafia may want to have a mixed list maybe? Would mafia want to make the whole medic list full of mafia? was a reply to . Show nested quote +Now, what exactly is this? I would put Jimtudor, my next target, on the list because "mafia might want to have a mixed list maybe"? This doesn't even make any sense! Someone, please explain this reasoning to me.
So is he saying that the other names on my list, that is almost identical to others', would be mafia? And I put Jimtudor(my next target) on the list, because I wanted a mixed list? And even if he says otherwise, this post indeed DOES implicate me being mafia, giving a reason(a horrible one at that) for me to put Jimtudor on the list even if I was mafia. When have I ever pointed a finger at you? When have I even mentioned your name in an analysis? What part of Show nested quote +Mafia may want to have a mixed list maybe? Would mafia want to make the whole medic list full of mafia? is directed at you, Shikyo? Why do you think I'm talking about you when I say mafia? Stop pulling random implications out of what I'm saying. I've said to "read my posts as they are". Show nested quote +Next we have a peaceful conversation, after which he goes somewhere, never to be seen. You want to play with "time"? Sure, two can play that game. May 22 2009 21:43 - Show nested quote +Mafia may want to have a mixed list maybe? Would mafia want to make the whole medic list full of mafia? May 22 2009 23:06 - Show nested quote +Because jim was a good enough contributer that he can't simply be ignored to be part of the medic list. Use crate as an example. He's pretty much unanimously agreed upon to be part of the medic list. Mafia have no choice but to put him on their lists. Is he exempt from being hit justbecause he's on a stupid list? Hell no because it'd be more suspicious not to put him on a list when he's done so much. Medic list isn't an immunity list (like JeeJee said). In fact it might be a warning from the mafiathat even the medic list may not be as safe as we think. Do the math, 23:06- 21:43. Less than fucking 2 hours. Sorry if I'm not 24/7 devoted to this game, and a rebuttal less than 2 hours later is not good enough for you. Stop using such backhanded tactics to incriminate me. I never said Jim was a good hit enough to warrant 2 hits - you can try to quote me on it. I never said it was suspicious for you to put him on the list - you can try to quote me on that too. All I am saying is that the option of a mafia putting Jim on his/her medic list is totally probable. I never directed anything at you, so I don't know why you're getting so defensive. Read my posts as they are. Show nested quote +
On May 22 2009 23:55 zeks wrote:
I never said Jim was a good hit enough to warrant 2 hits - you can try to quote me on it.
I never said it was suspicious for you to put him on the list - you can try to quote me on that too. All I am saying is that the option of a mafia putting Jim on his/her medic list is totally probable.
I never directed anything at you, so I don't know why you're getting so defensive. Read my posts as they are.
Show nested quote + So you say that it's a possible reason for me to put him on my list even if I was a mafia, although he was basically defending my decision the whole time. This means that you disagreed with him, doesn't it? Sigh.
See why are you so stuck up that you think I'm targeting you? I'll repeat it once more. All I said in that exchange was that the option of a mafia putting Jim on his/her medic list is totally probable. Don't make it look like I'm against you now. Although you've built up quite a case on me (or at least had a good attempt to), I'm not going to start going finger-pointing-crazy. I didn't contribute that much for the night 2 lynch, and I admit my fault. But I assure the town that after you read my analysis that I will have for tonight (12 hours) tomorrow (24 hours) there will be no doubt of my contributions. If anyone wants me to clarify anything I've said I'm very willing to now as I am now forced into a defensive position. On May 23 2009 23:30 zeks wrote:Btw, Shikyo and teks you're both from europe and I'm from Canada, so if I'm not active when you're not active please understand that I'm in a totally different timezone. As for the medic list tonight, I have no comments about how you medics are going to use it for your guidelines of protection, but I believe this is a very important article that should be posted again. Show nested quote +On May 21 2009 04:19 JeeJee wrote:
There seems to be a bit of confusion over the purpose of the medic list. I'll just try to clear it up, so we're all on the same page.
The medic list is not:
-A list of people for medics to protect
-A list of people for medics to ignore
-A list of people for mafia to hit
-A list of people for mafia to ignore
The medic list is:
-A list of people deemed important to the town.
What this effectively means is that medics should be considering protecting them, and mafia should be considering hitting them. Obviously mafia can (and likely will) hit one or more people that are not on the list. Our medics, obviously, can also protect one or more people that are not on the list. This is where mindgames begin and I hope our medics will be able to outsmart the mafia in this respect.
Also, in case you were wondering, here's what I'm up to: spending a boatload of time on behavior analysis for mafia viii >_>. No but seriously, I'm mostly waiting for the day post at this point. I have a few things I would like to say, but writing them before daybreak serves no purpose to the town (and may unfavorably alter the mafia kill list).
I guess for now I can end with:
Send in your night actions to Pyrr! On May 24 2009 00:18 zeks wrote:
Edit: I made a formatting error on the rebuttal of Shikyo (quoted something twice)
I'll post this now, will follow up with important posts grouped in a bit but my friends are here (shit) so we'll see what happens.
|
oh shit i fucked that up, will try to fix in a new post
|
Well my time probably got limited a bit; my friends just called and they're coming over at some point but I will not renege on my promise to look over zeks's posts.
Here is the complete list in chronological order.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote:
I don't agree with lynching an inactive the first day. Since this is a newbie friendly game, those with blue roles might be more inclined to stay lurking since they know they have an important role and don't want to die so early. I remember when I was a medic (many times) all I thought about was staying alive so I can at least be able to contribute with protections each night - thus I stayed quiet and only communicated through PMs.
Also, with 30 players we have a much higher chance of lynching a poor blue this time around. I understand that there could be true green inactives, but to randomly pick someone imo is really dangerous. I suggest choosing someone that is both inactive and has somewhat of a clue pointing to that person.
Right now looking at all the platforms Shikyo has the most detailed and from first glance it does make him look the most trustworthy. Although the other candidates boast "experience", to me that really isn't the most important thing. It's the plan that the person comes up with that will attract my vote.
The problem is we really only have 3-4 real candidates running for mayor/sheriff. Shikyo seems like a shoe-in for sheriff with the mayor position up for grabs.
So with that said...
I'm going to be running for Mayor.
I've played in a couple mafia games previously. Didn't really say much or do much, but after much observation I am willing to use all that I understand for the town's benefit.
My plan:
1. Day 1 Lynch - I'd like for the town to vote for the day 1 lynch. Although if I get elected I have the choice, I am willing to let the town decide on who gets the axe day 1. This of course would only work if we collectively or majoritively agree on one person right now before the elections are over.
2. Town web -
a) Vigi Plan
I think Crate brought up a great point about the trouble of getting a confirmed towny. The vigi plan has some flaws though. The vigi can't roleclaim and announce his hit to the whole town because a mafia could just do the same. I noticed in the day post that the mafia don't have names. So we wouldn't really know if a new vigi has come out and performed his announced hit.
b) Medic plan
Nowhere does it say that the medic will know the role of the person he has saved. I agree that it is more likely for a medic to save a mafia hit than a vigi hit, but as a medic in previous games myself, it's pretty hard to judge who is going to get hit every night (that or I was a horrible medic lol). Also, in the less likely case of saving a mafia from a vigi - the medic may mistrust the saved mafia for a good guy. In the case that we do not get a successful block, then we should move on to another plan that I am suggesting: plan C.
c) Detective role-check
Depending on how far we get with the medic plan, we might have to consider the ultimatum which is to have a DT rolecheck someone - which would be the safest way, unless you manage to unluckily land on the godfather; then theres no way back. The chance of landing on the godfather is slim though, so I deem this the safest plan and most viable after using trying the medic plan.
If I do get elected, I will get 3 votes. I plan on voting on the basis of behavioural analysis and clues, with clues being 2nd most important (exceptions of course). I will try to share as much as I know with everybody to keep everyone out of the dark. As for the double-lynches, I hope that they will be used as soon as the town web gets rolling.
I hope I have said enough to convince you all to give me a chance, and I promise I will do my best to paint the walls of Fluidville bright red.
(I hope that wasn't bad for my first thread post)
Just realized theres a player named teks in this game - I hope you guys don't mistake me for him, my name is Zeks.
Thanks for reading! On May 20 2009 01:09 zeks wrote:For those who haven't read my platform, I would urge you to do so - it is at the top of this page. I want to pose a question to town: once the mayor does get elected today, who would you like to see get lynched? I also want to reiterate that no one should be PMing their roles to the new elected Sheriff and Mayor until further confirmation. Our activity in this game has been pretty disappointing. The more lurkers there are the more it benefits the reds. Come on out people! The last 3 pages have pretty much been arguing about elections, and we've seem to forget about our first day clues (however vague they may be). I'll try to get some clue analysis done by the end of elections. Anyways I've come up with the inactive list: Posted very little: 7. motbob - ran for Sheriff 15. ydg - clue analysis 16. sugiuramidori - clue analysis 19. therapy - talked so he didnt look like an inactive 24. Knutti - didn't really say much, see pg4 26. Koopie - forgot what he said but wasn't too important 29. phelix - didn't really say much, see pg4 30. bwdero - supports killing inactive even if he's blue, minor clue analysis Never posted:5. omG.[RaYnE] 6. clazziquai 13. adriix33 18. Ra.Xor.2 31. epicdoom Show nested quote +I'll address this right now.
What clues?
The only thing I have seen even remotely linked to me is the word "creep" and my pet zergling icon. I don't need to remind you that we have at least 8 players with zerg icons playing this game. You will be rather hard pressed to validate anything based solely on that.
What about the "eerily crepusclar" clue - with your cat in the profile? Hope you can explain that a little. On May 20 2009 01:27 zeks wrote:
@BWDero:
Sorry, might have mixed you up with someone else. On May 20 2009 02:49 zeks wrote:
To be safe I suggest we try to find clues that may point to the inactives so we can have a better shot at hitting a red. I am also supportive if we were to lynch Jayme based on clues. On May 20 2009 05:07 zeks wrote:Based on clues: Jayme Other than that: I choose therapy. Justification on therapy: His one post: Show nested quote +Hi guys, just chiming in here so I don't get killed for inactiveness. This is my first mafia game besides playing with about 15 friends around 2 years ago so I'm probably not going to be saying anything too profound. I haven't really been swayed by any of the potential sheriff's speech's so far, they sound reasonably intelligent but don't state anything that's beyond just general knowledge or logic. If I dunno who to vote for should I just abstain or should I take a shot in the dark? The majority of us have agreed to lynch an inactive for first lynch, and the whole purpose of his one post is so that he won't be on the chopping block for this lynch. It is because of this that makes me suspicious of him. He may have posted once, so it looks like he's better than the ones that haven't posted, but I think his post was as good as nothing. Furthermore, his profile has pretty much one thing to relate clues to: the quote: "Let's start a revolution so I can break some shit." I am linking this to the last part of day 1: Show nested quote +Without warning, his windshield shattered and a wave of glass ripped through LTT's face. Passing out from blood loss, LTT's head slumped, sounding a horn that would not be heard in time. This isn't the strongest clue, but the links are: "break some shit" -> "windshield shattered and a wave of glass..." "start a revolution" -> "sounding a horn" So because of those two counts and the majority of us wanting to lynch an inactive, I would thus lynch therapy if I were to be elected mayor. On May 20 2009 05:27 zeks wrote:
I hope the town will appreciate the information I'm disclosing to you all. I'm willing to share my thoughts publically to keep everyone informed, and I hope to hear opinions from you all on my findings.
A comeback seems improbable now for me, but I hope you all can reconsider me for Mayor. Again my platform is on page 8 if you haven't read it yet.
On May 20 2009 06:25 zeks wrote:
I suggest that as soon as DTs are allowed to act, we should start checking clues on the people who voted for Tudor (making the Tudor list).
I don't necessarily think Tudor is red at this point since I can't connect really any clues to him (I don't understand his quote, and his name is apparently a name of a hockey player), and his actions haven't really been too suspicious.
I'm also not completely 100% sold on JeeJee's alignment, but right now my gut feeling tells me to trust him over Tudor.
The mayor role has quite the big effect with the 3 votes, and in tight voting races it could really sway the result.
From the looks of this JeeJee will become mayor, and I hope you decide to go with the lynch of therapy. On May 20 2009 06:28 zeks wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2009 06:22 Ra.Xor.2 wrote:On May 20 2009 06:20 l10f wrote:On May 20 2009 06:14 Ra.Xor.2 wrote:
Role checks cannot be done night 1, and if Tudor is elected, we can no longer role check him. The same goes for JeeJee. However, if we are able to lynch one of his voters and he flips red, i think lynching him would be a smart move. Again, this can also be applied if JeeJee wins the election. So you want to lynch a voter for both JeeJee and Jimtudor, regardless of who wins? No im saying depending on who won, we can lynch one of their voters, and if he flips up red, we can be suspicious of the new mayor. If the right clues connect to one of the voters then yes; so I believe my suggestion of checking the voters first should be valid. We shouldn't be lynching just a random person off the list. On May 20 2009 07:36 zeks wrote:
I find it suspicious that The_Master is changing his vote to JeeJee after I brought up the fact that we should check clues on the people who vote for JimTudor.
On May 20 2009 11:59 zeks wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2009 10:08 Therapy wrote:
I don't understand what is so suspicious about saying that I don't have anything to add. However, if I AM lynched, and that seems to be becoming extremely likely I suggest suspicions be turned towards JeeJee and zeks as they were very quick to bandwagon against me with little to no real evidence. I'm not sure what I can really say in my defense, I'm just inexperienced and figured I was supposed to post, just couldn't think of anything to add. Guess I'll take this as a learning experience for the next game. There isn't really a "bandwagon" at all. BWDero wanted a name, and I gave him one. Why did JeeJee support the idea of lynching you? Probably because the evidence (however little it may be) seemed convincing enough to him. In terms of inactives and those with clues pointing to them, you're one of the more obvious ones. If you can point out anyone else worth lynching day 1, then please tell everyone (or at least convince JeeJee/Shikyo) that you're worth living, rather than giving up so easily this early in the game. Show nested quote +On May 20 2009 10:10 The_Master wrote:Well, Shikyo, I thank you for not being too suspicious of me. It makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. On May 20 2009 07:36 zeks wrote:
I find it suspicious that The_Master is changing his vote to JeeJee after I brought up the fact that we should check clues on the people who vote for JimTudor.
I don't mind that you find that suspicious at all. I would still be voting to JimTudor if JeeJee hadn't swayed me over to the dark side (pardon the figure of speech). Also, I wouldn't expect to not get off the 'suspected' list by changing my vote but I figured I'd be suspected either way so I may as well vote for who I wanted to vote for. If you think I swtiched votes to remove suspicions from myself, think of it this way: If I was a mafia the two ways I can think of to explain my actions are: a) I panicked at possibly being the center of attention so I joined a bandwagon and made up the pitiful excuse of why I changed my vote; or b) My Mafian ringleaders (all more experienced than me so they would know it would bring attention to myself) told me to switch from JimTudor (if he is Mafian like you suspect) to JeeJee ... for some reason. Perhaps JeeJee is mafia as well then or JeeJee would somehow benefit them in some way that would counter the extra suspicion being dumped upon me? Now, if I was a lonely little townsfolk peasant person with no friends to give me a character reference I can only think of one reason to change: I liked JeeJee in more than JimTudor (or maybe I have a 6th sense just joined the bandwagon before I realized there was a bandwagon - now, that would be cool). Fair enough, your defense sounds good. But why are you assuming that the mafia are more experienced than you? On May 20 2009 07:36 zeks wrote:
I find it suspicious that The_Master is changing his vote to JeeJee after I brought up the fact that we should check clues on the people who vote for JimTudor.
On May 20 2009 12:31 zeks wrote:
There is no lynching vote, mayor gets the lynch
I read the rules and I never found anything about ties and what would happen - but most of you say its last vote = Sheriff so I suppose Shikyo is now Mayor. Shikyo probably already sent in his lynch. On May 20 2009 12:33 zeks wrote:
Oops obviously I didn't read the rules well enough doh!
Let's see who's on the chopping block! On May 20 2009 13:03 zeks wrote:
I take responsibility for the miss. Therapy wasn't the strongest for clues, in fact I still think Jayme and the cat is. Other than the fact that therapy did seem suspicious, the fact that no one really covered for him said a lot about his role. I was also hoping to get more input from people, especially the two elected, but I guess my finger was all it took to give therapy his end.
Hey, at least we didn't hit a blue. I guess we can call round 1 a draw?
I guess our next step is to construct the medic list.
On May 20 2009 22:34 zeks wrote:
Medic list looks fine to me, I'm pretty much waiting for the Sheriff to talk and the arrival of day 2. On May 21 2009 03:14 zeks wrote:
I just hope that the medics are listening right now and hopefully they won't deviate from the plan. On May 21 2009 13:43 zeks wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2009 11:52 So no fek wrote:Wow, Jimtudor got bodyguard. So we know he isn't mafia. Now the real question is: Was it someone trying to attack someone in office, or get rid of Jimtudor? Either way it makes me think about who's in office. We've all come to the general consensus that mafia is likely either in office, or ran for office. Killing one of the people that ran for office doesn't seem like something that would benefit them, as it would just bring more suspicion onto them. On the other hand, if mafia isn't in office, then they see the people there as a threat, and thus are going through bodyguards for that entire purpose. Of course, killing off your own bodyguards as mafia would be stupid, but it could all just be to throw us off. You bring up some pretty good points. Let's review out all the likely scenarios: a) Jim revealed his role to mafia- Mafia would get rid of him due to the fact that he is a contributing player, and the suspicion cast on him early would probably mean the medics won't be protecting him tonight b) Jim revealed his role to the Sheriff/Mayor, and one/or both are mafia.- Now if either JeeJee or Shikyo decided to kill Jim off, I believe that wouldn't be a wise move because bodyguards protect them from potential future vigi hits. I think a mafia "elected" would prefer to have his bodyguards, of course there is the possibility of the mayor trying to get rid of the Sheriff or vice versa. This scenario is pretty farfetch'd in my opinion.
c) Jim never revealed his role to anyone, he was just a target from get the get go since he was a good contributer.- I think this is the most likely scenario. It's obvious that the town has been suspicious of Jim up until this point, and a lot of us were arguing whether to put him on the medic list or not. Because of the suspicion the medics probably weren't going to cover him tonight which lead to his death. We only had two deaths tonight, softer and Jimtudor. Obviously there are only two possible scenarios: a) Stacked hits on either softer or Jim.- After some thought I find it hard to believe that either of them took 2 hits. Softer wasn't really contributing too too much to deserve 2 hits - in fact he wasn't even on any medic lists afaik. For Jim I want to reiterate that there was already suspicion cast on him, so if mafia were smart they'd probably assume that Jim was not likely to be protected, thus only needing one hit. Of course scenario a) cannot be fully ruled out because we don't know how the mafia valued Jimtudor as a contributer. b) Someone got saved.- I think this is more likely, and in this case, I believe someone on the medic list got saved tonight. I'll true to whip up some clue analysis later. On May 21 2009 23:52 zeks wrote:
I think the vigi plan has just too many flaws. The medic plan is viable and I really believe that someone got saved last night versus a vet taking a hit. Now, how far the town web has grown I don't know.
But if things get desperate and still nothing gets done, then we should go with the DT rolecheck. I think this is probably the safest plan but obviously has a great drawback of losing one rolecheck. I am willing to step up for examination, that is, you'd have to believe in me not being Godfather.
And so far there have been no clues against me afaik, but of course I'm not free from suspicion one bit. Should we try this? Up to you two DT's to decide. (Of course, if this does happen I hope only one of you rolechecks me)
On May 22 2009 00:01 teks wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2009 23:52 zeks wrote:
And so far there have been no clues against me afaik, but of course I'm not free from suspicion one bit. Should we try this? Up to you two DT's to decide. (Of course, if this does happen I hope only one of you rolechecks me)
I wouldn't mind doing this, but how do you suppose we can overcome these possible flaws: 1) Knowing whether or not the DT's who rolecheck you are real 2) Presenting the results of the rolecheck in this thread WITHOUT giving up the identity of the DT's to the mafia, which would lead to them getting whacked the next night (unless protected by the sheriff, but that has it downsides to it as well) 3) As you said yourself, you may be GF anyway - although it is unlikely.. Now, it's not like we can't do this without a confirmed townie, but it would make things easier. I say before we go through with this plan we should atleast wait until day 3 so the vigi's can make their hits, if one of them strikes gold we won't have to do this. 1) The DT would tell me my role. 2) I wouldn't have to disclose who's a DT anyway. I'm willing to act as the DT's mouthpiece and if we nail one then he'll turn red and you can trust me then. 3) Up to you guys to decide. There is no 100% foolproof plan, there's always a possibility that can fuck everything up. I'm basically playing a game of probabilities. On May 22 2009 01:30 zeks wrote:
Yep I talked about the possibility of me being GF. That's why you guys have to analyze my behaviour and whether any clues have pointed to me to see whether I'm trustworthy enough up to this point.
I'm not in a hurry in getting this working. We're still in good shape though we lost a bodyguard but at least we don't need to suspect Jim no more, which narrows down the list of potential mafia in the candidates/medic list.
If someone can come up with a surefire plan for day 2, by all means tell us. I'm still not convinced of using the vigi plan for many reasons stated against it. On May 22 2009 13:04 zeks wrote:Show nested quote +On May 22 2009 13:00 JeeJee wrote:On May 22 2009 12:50 crate wrote:
What day 2 clues are pointing to Jayme? I thought we were still on the "crepuscular" possible clue?
I'd be surprised if Pyrry were using the same people in clues on consecutive days too (though of course more possible links to 1 person = more likely at least one of them is actually real).
At this point though I'd be 1a2a3a'ing through the inactives list if I could. They're only hurting us by staying quiet. a little birdo told me that crepuscular does not point to jayme. of course the inactives are hurting us the problem is, there's like ten of them, by the time we're done with them, we're screwed. lol pulling an Ace? Mind to give us a name of someone u want dead? On May 22 2009 13:38 zeks wrote:JeeJee it sounds like you have a very extensive database on everyone I was hoping you could have some more justification on l10f. Foolishness I like your 'no bullshit' attitude. On May 22 2009 21:43 zeks wrote:Show nested quote +On May 22 2009 21:36 teks wrote:Great post Judge. vx70GTOJudgexv wrote:
One thing that's confusing me about the people who are accusing Shikyo because jimtudor was on the medic list is they are only accusing Shikyo. You do realize jimtudor was on other people's medic lists (including my own), right? Yet the only one they accuse of any suspicion based on that is Shikyo. Not only that, but putting Jimtudor on the medic list was a GOOD townie call, and mostly everyone agreed on it. How on earth is that suspicious? 1) Jimtudor was a bodyguard, so his spot on the list was correct 2) He was hit by the mafia How would it benefit the mafia to put their own target on the medic list? "But teks, don't you get it? If Jimtudor wasn't on the list, the medics would protect him because they think he's likely to get hit. He's high profiled, yet not on the list!" Even if the list isn't "a list on who the medics should or should not protect, only a list of the people deemed important to the town" - this is a game with a lot of new players, chances are that the medics are new players as well. The safest call for the new medic players would be to protect someone on that list because they'd know the town would support that. Mafia may want to have a mixed list maybe? Would mafia want to make the whole medic list full of mafia? On May 22 2009 23:06 zeks wrote:
Because jim was a good enough contributer that he can't simply be ignored to be part of the medic list. Use crate as an example. He's pretty much unanimously agreed upon to be part of the medic list. Mafia have no choice but to put him on their lists. Is he exempt from being hit justbecause he's on a stupid list? Hell no because it'd be more suspicious not to put him on a list when he's done so much. Medic list isn't an immunity list (like JeeJee said). In fact it might be a warning from the mafiathat even the medic list may not be as safe as we think.
On May 22 2009 23:55 zeks wrote:
I never said Jim was a good hit enough to warrant 2 hits - you can try to quote me on it.
I never said it was suspicious for you to put him on the list - you can try to quote me on that too. All I am saying is that the option of a mafia putting Jim on his/her medic list is totally probable.
I never directed anything at you, so I don't know why you're getting so defensive. Read my posts as they are.
---- HERE ENDS POSTS BEFORE ACCUSATION On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote:Town is in utter chaos. Massive finger pointing at almost every suspect possible. Reading things out of context. Drawing implications out of the air from the slightest behaviour changes. All assumptions without any solid evidence. We're basically unable to agree on anything. Someone comes up with a long post and boom I'm now a suspect. But I guess Teks you've done a damn good job on me. Teks, do you think you're so good that if I were a GF I'd pick people off your list? Your analysis has barely any good content and usually you're just restating other peoples points. Why would a GF kill people you suspect? If anything if I were a GF I'd leave them alive because I know they are green, and if you were town of course you'd be in shit trying to figure out if they're green and I could kill off others. Why would I think you're a medic? Wouldn't I ask who do you trust rather than who do you suspect? It's true I've been asking about people's suspicions, I won't lie. I asked you guys a question, you answered it. If you asked me a question, I answered it too. Teks you never asked me anything, and you're suspicious so why do I have to keep the PMs going? Show nested quote +So he is basically disregarding the whole idea because the mafia doesn't have names (why would they have names? Have they ever had names in any previous games?). He is completely disregarding the fact that if a red player was hit, only a vigi could be behind it, and that vigi should have no problems with both pointing out the clues leading to himself, and get the support of the people he reached out to prior to his hit. What I make of this is that he is against getting a confirmed townie through this method, instead of pointing out the flaws and suggesting another way of doing it, he just denies the whole idea. Okay, I admit my mistake there. I still disagree with the vigi plan because of how hard it is to orchestrate it. And yes if you were wondering, in past mafia's people had names. No I am not against a confirmed townie, because I suggested the DT-Rolecheck idea, and I listed pros and cons for all 3 ideas. Show nested quote +It's true that if a medic protected a mafia from a vigi hit, there would be no way to know if that target was mafia or not. But he is completely disregarding the fact that vigis can't hit on night 1. He, as an experienced player, should know this. He is also going on about how hard it is to block a hit, blabla, we all know that. Obviously this plan wasn't meant to be a "hey let's just block a mafia hit, then we have our confirmed townie!" but rather IF a medic blocked a mafia hit ON THE FIRST NIGHT, that medic would be safe to talk to the townie in question. Here is what I said: Show nested quote +...so I deem this the safest plan and most viable after using trying the medic plan. Page 8. I was in support of the medic plan, in fact I wanted that plan first before using my DT-rolecheck plan. Show nested quote +...pointing out the flaws and suggesting another way of doing it, he just denies the whole idea. Show nested quote +So zeks goes on to form his confirmed townie plan based on the supposed flaws of the medic and vigi plans: Don't contradict yourself. As for my pitch for mayor: If I were mafia do you know how dangerous it would be for me to run for mayor that late? First I'd be sticking my head out for suspect and second I'm probably not going to win. If I had pleaded my case for mayor earlier (around when JeeJee or Shikyo did theirs) I think I'd have a legit shot for a spot. I ran for mayor so town can see other options: I never expected to win at all. How could I win when I had my election speech as first post? I wasn't involved until page 8 when things have already boiled up. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quotes part 2: Show nested quote +Captain Obvious to the rescue! Again he is "contributing" to the town by stating something we all know already. Of course we should go on clues in addition to lynching an inactive. The fact that he wanted to lynch Jayme also corresponds with the Godfather view, since he turned out to be a townie.
After that, he makes his first (in my opinion) real contribution to the town, by cooking up some clues pointing to therapy. My theory is that he saw the Jayme case as sure-fire enough that he would be lynched on day 2, because he already had so many clues attached to him, that he decided to bring in someone new. This is not any evidence by itself, but therapy being a townie also adds up to the equation.
Then, the medic list are being formed. zeks is placed on all of them, despite not really contributing to the town apart from running for mayor and forming a clue pattern to therapy. Good job! You had me fooled as well. I guess if there is anyone who should be accused of posting loads of fluff it should be you, not Shikyo. Why don't you find me someone who suggested lynching an inactive AND with clues pointing to them? People were agreeing on me because I came up with the idea, while people like you only thought of lynching based on inactivity OR clues. I'm placed on all the medic lists because I am trusted by the town. My suggestion for therapy was a reply to BWDero when he wanted a name out there - so I gave him one. And Shikyo was pretty quick to support me without any reason. Show nested quote +I guess if there is anyone who should be accused of posting loads of fluff it should be you, not Shikyo. Trying to protect Shikyo while attacking me at the same time? Show nested quote +Of course you would hope that, you wouldn't want the medics to protect your targets, after all. The plan being the medic list? Show nested quote +No. Obviously, you are lying. As an experienced player, you knew about the possibility that a veteran got hit, and that it would be more likely than stacking hits on softer or Jim, who basically hadn't contributed at all. If anyone were to be stacked it would have been someone like softer or Judge, or even you.
Luckily, crate calls him on it instantly, so no harm done. I didn't lie. I will admit to this mistake that I missed the veteran possibility. If this is enough to warrant me guilty then so be it, but that was just my misunderstanding. Show nested quote +Basically this is a repeat of his plan in the election platform. He is probably correct that there are no clues pointing to him, but the mere idea of suggesting himself for this idea makes this that more suspicious. If he were to suggest the idea, then let's say, have the town vote on who they wanted to act as the mouthpiece, maybe it wouldn't be so blatantly obvious what is going on here. zeks has that much belief in the town not thinking he is the godfather that he is nice enough to step up! Aww, doesn't that get your eyes wet. So nice of him!
Once again, he fooled me, but thankfully there were other more experienced players who quickly figured out the risks of his plan. chaoser, Judge, Shikyo, props to you! What have chaoser, Judge, Shikyo figured out that I didn't say in my own plan? Do tell. I was the first person to bring up the godfather possibility. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I don't give a FLAMING FUCK if I'm removed from the medic list. The medic list meant shit from day 1. It's just a stupid list of who posts the most (see the correlation of most posts -> medic list? I do too!). I didn't feel ANY safer than I would be not on the medic list. If you look at teks arguments with quotes on me, he chooses the stuff he wants to quote, and leaves out the rest because it contradicts his arguments. Read my posts again and you'll see different than what he has posed.Show nested quote +I am basically laying my spot in this game on the table here, if zeks turns out innocent I take full responsibility and will let you lynch me if you see it fit. But do know that I wouldn't accuse an active and experienced player without gathering what I see as plenty of proof. This is all up to you, town, what do you think of my case? Lol and the cherry on top: the ultimatum to everyone. By the time you get lynched it'd be night 4, and if you are TOWN like you say you are, then we'd probably have hit 0 mafia till then, which is pretty much game over. What are you trying to pull an iloveKTF? Except you're smarter than him I admit. You're not going to go down that easily right? You're going to "take responsibility" on a failed lynch, rather than requesting a mod kill. You're just trying to make it seem like you have nothing to lose, putting your life on the line, empathizing with the majority of the town. That ends my rebuttal for teks. If you want me to cover anything I didn't, by all means feel free to call me out again. I will be following up with my clue analysis later on today or tomorrow, and I assure you, mine will be WAY MORE spectacular than what teks has told you. On May 23 2009 23:26 zeks wrote:Now that I've dealt with teks, let's deal with Shikyo's argument deconstruction. Show nested quote +I would like to note that zeks only did a tiny bit of clue analysis, for Therapy. In fact, he was the first person to suggest him being lynched. On the second day, zeks said that it'd also be a good thing to lynch Jayme because of the clues etc. I find it slightly suspicious that he never clue analysed thoroughly, only for those people, who in fact turned out to be innocent. And as already mentioned, he hasn't done anything useful, either. I'd also like to point out how late his first post was. Why were you so quick on lynching therapy? Oh, as I recall, you were the one who dropped the axe on him? No one even slightly challenged my case to lynch therapy. I was hoping for other options to be out there, but no one said anything. This by all means doesn't mean I'm not taking responsibility for his death. Show nested quote +
After a while I noticed something I didn't notice the first time. For only one DT? Hey, did you yourself forget that your plan was to make you the confirmed townie and get all the information about everything? Where did "only one DT" come from?
If the DT rolechecked me I'd only initially be communicating to that one DT. Show nested quote +
"Everyone is pointing fingers at each other and nothing is getting done." Is that really so? Well, let's assume that's true.. So naturally you will try to help the town fix that, right? Let's take a look at the time I sent the last PM, "I see.".
I agree with you that I haven't been the biggest help lately. But I assure you, and everyone else that it will all change by tonight or tomorrow morning. Show nested quote +Mafia may want to have a mixed list maybe? Would mafia want to make the whole medic list full of mafia? was a reply to . Show nested quote +Now, what exactly is this? I would put Jimtudor, my next target, on the list because "mafia might want to have a mixed list maybe"? This doesn't even make any sense! Someone, please explain this reasoning to me.
So is he saying that the other names on my list, that is almost identical to others', would be mafia? And I put Jimtudor(my next target) on the list, because I wanted a mixed list? And even if he says otherwise, this post indeed DOES implicate me being mafia, giving a reason(a horrible one at that) for me to put Jimtudor on the list even if I was mafia. When have I ever pointed a finger at you? When have I even mentioned your name in an analysis? What part of Show nested quote +Mafia may want to have a mixed list maybe? Would mafia want to make the whole medic list full of mafia? is directed at you, Shikyo? Why do you think I'm talking about you when I say mafia? Stop pulling random implications out of what I'm saying. I've said to "read my posts as they are". Show nested quote +Next we have a peaceful conversation, after which he goes somewhere, never to be seen. You want to play with "time"? Sure, two can play that game. May 22 2009 21:43 - Show nested quote +Mafia may want to have a mixed list maybe? Would mafia want to make the whole medic list full of mafia? May 22 2009 23:06 - Show nested quote +Because jim was a good enough contributer that he can't simply be ignored to be part of the medic list. Use crate as an example. He's pretty much unanimously agreed upon to be part of the medic list. Mafia have no choice but to put him on their lists. Is he exempt from being hit justbecause he's on a stupid list? Hell no because it'd be more suspicious not to put him on a list when he's done so much. Medic list isn't an immunity list (like JeeJee said). In fact it might be a warning from the mafiathat even the medic list may not be as safe as we think. Do the math, 23:06- 21:43. Less than fucking 2 hours. Sorry if I'm not 24/7 devoted to this game, and a rebuttal less than 2 hours later is not good enough for you. Stop using such backhanded tactics to incriminate me. I never said Jim was a good hit enough to warrant 2 hits - you can try to quote me on it. I never said it was suspicious for you to put him on the list - you can try to quote me on that too. All I am saying is that the option of a mafia putting Jim on his/her medic list is totally probable. I never directed anything at you, so I don't know why you're getting so defensive. Read my posts as they are. Show nested quote +
On May 22 2009 23:55 zeks wrote:
I never said Jim was a good hit enough to warrant 2 hits - you can try to quote me on it.
I never said it was suspicious for you to put him on the list - you can try to quote me on that too. All I am saying is that the option of a mafia putting Jim on his/her medic list is totally probable.
I never directed anything at you, so I don't know why you're getting so defensive. Read my posts as they are.
Show nested quote + So you say that it's a possible reason for me to put him on my list even if I was a mafia, although he was basically defending my decision the whole time. This means that you disagreed with him, doesn't it? Sigh.
See why are you so stuck up that you think I'm targeting you? I'll repeat it once more. All I said in that exchange was that the option of a mafia putting Jim on his/her medic list is totally probable. Don't make it look like I'm against you now. Although you've built up quite a case on me (or at least had a good attempt to), I'm not going to start going finger-pointing-crazy. I didn't contribute that much for the night 2 lynch, and I admit my fault. But I assure the town that after you read my analysis that I will have for tonight (12 hours) tomorrow (24 hours) there will be no doubt of my contributions. If anyone wants me to clarify anything I've said I'm very willing to now as I am now forced into a defensive position. On May 23 2009 23:30 zeks wrote:Btw, Shikyo and teks you're both from europe and I'm from Canada, so if I'm not active when you're not active please understand that I'm in a totally different timezone. As for the medic list tonight, I have no comments about how you medics are going to use it for your guidelines of protection, but I believe this is a very important article that should be posted again. Show nested quote +On May 21 2009 04:19 JeeJee wrote:
There seems to be a bit of confusion over the purpose of the medic list. I'll just try to clear it up, so we're all on the same page.
The medic list is not:
-A list of people for medics to protect
-A list of people for medics to ignore
-A list of people for mafia to hit
-A list of people for mafia to ignore
The medic list is:
-A list of people deemed important to the town.
What this effectively means is that medics should be considering protecting them, and mafia should be considering hitting them. Obviously mafia can (and likely will) hit one or more people that are not on the list. Our medics, obviously, can also protect one or more people that are not on the list. This is where mindgames begin and I hope our medics will be able to outsmart the mafia in this respect.
Also, in case you were wondering, here's what I'm up to: spending a boatload of time on behavior analysis for mafia viii >_>. No but seriously, I'm mostly waiting for the day post at this point. I have a few things I would like to say, but writing them before daybreak serves no purpose to the town (and may unfavorably alter the mafia kill list).
I guess for now I can end with:
Send in your night actions to Pyrr! On May 24 2009 00:18 zeks wrote:
Edit: I made a formatting error on the rebuttal of Shikyo (quoted something twice)
I'll post this now, will follow up with important posts grouped in a bit but my friends are here (shit) so we'll see what happens.
well shit there's still one stray tag somewhere but at least this is readable now.
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First trend: posts about detectives
I'll only be considering stuff before the accusation right now; I'll look later at stuff after the accusation if I have time.
+ Show Spoiler +zeks wrote:
c) Detective role-check
Depending on how far we get with the medic plan, we might have to consider the ultimatum which is to have a DT rolecheck someone - which would be the safest way, unless you manage to unluckily land on the godfather; then theres no way back. The chance of landing on the godfather is slim though, so I deem this the safest plan and most viable after using trying the medic plan. zeks wrote:
I suggest that as soon as DTs are allowed to act, we should start checking clues on the people who voted for Tudor (making the Tudor list).
I don't necessarily think Tudor is red at this point since I can't connect really any clues to him (I don't understand his quote, and his name is apparently a name of a hockey player), and his actions haven't really been too suspicious.
I'm also not completely 100% sold on JeeJee's alignment, but right now my gut feeling tells me to trust him over Tudor. zeks wrote:
I think the vigi plan has just too many flaws. The medic plan is viable and I really believe that someone got saved last night versus a vet taking a hit. Now, how far the town web has grown I don't know.
But if things get desperate and still nothing gets done, then we should go with the DT rolecheck. I think this is probably the safest plan but obviously has a great drawback of losing one rolecheck. I am willing to step up for examination, that is, you'd have to believe in me not being Godfather.
And so far there have been no clues against me afaik, but of course I'm not free from suspicion one bit. Should we try this? Up to you two DT's to decide. (Of course, if this does happen I hope only one of you rolechecks me) zeks wrote:
1) The DT would tell me my role.
2) I wouldn't have to disclose who's a DT anyway. I'm willing to act as the DT's mouthpiece and if we nail one then he'll turn red and you can trust me then.
3) Up to you guys to decide.
There is no 100% foolproof plan, there's always a possibility that can fuck everything up. I'm basically playing a game of probabilities.
What do I read from this? zeks is blue or GF pretending blue.
Reasoning:
There are 3 cases. zeks is green, zeks is blue, or zeks is red.
zeks cannot be green (or GF pretending green). Here's why:
+ Show Spoiler +zeks wrote:
1) The DT would tell me my role. 1) zeks cannot be a townie: Imagine zeks receives a PM from a random player "I r/c'd you and I know you're townie." If zeks is actually a townie, he shouldn't trust this--the risk is too high it's just a mafia pretending DT guessing the highest-probability role before behavior. Hell if I were towny I'd not trust anyone who PM's me saying they r/c'd me and got green. There's also the miller possibility--if zeks thinks he's a towny he might actually be a miller, which makes the DT's "roleclaim" wrong. This makes no sense to me if zeks is green. 2) zeks cannot be GF pretending green because of the fact no green would suggest this ploy in the first place. If a DT did happen to r/c zeks and got green, zeks is very likely to be GF. If the DT realizes this and finds a mouth, zeks is outed. 3) zeks cannot be red non-GF He's setting himself up to get r/c'd and if someone calls his bluff he's outed. Doesn't make sense. 4) zeks can be blue If someone PM's you your role when you're a blue they're either very very good at analyzing you, or you left too many hints, or they're a DT (or someone just fishing for info and got really lucky). 5) zeks can be GF pretending blue Same reasoning as above. Trying to trick a DT into the mafia's confidence.
Therefore, zeks is blue or GF pretending blue. Or he's a stupid green or stupid green GF.
I propose that those last two cases are not worth considering.
I will look at the rest of his posts after a bit and try to pick out which of these two is correct; going to do stuff with my friends for now.
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If I die I outlined a couple things for people to look at and PM'd them.
If I don't die I'll keep going with this argument when morning comes.
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I PM'd four people and none of them have any knowledge of the others I PM'd btw.
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also zeks you disappointed me dude, I can't believe you actually were just a stupid townie instead of a blue
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Esben I hope that was your hit man since then I don't have to berate the surviving Vigi for not listening to me.
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There are 4 hits.
Someone vigi'd.
Unless you think one of the other three was the vig kill?
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Anyway, zeks is clearly green and the discussion about him is over.
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I mean
that he died, but that the discussion is over
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Not right now.
I had some suspicions from day 1, but I haven't really looked at his recent posts much. Last thing I want is the town jumping on another green like it jumped on zeks.
Besides it's after 3 am here, I'm going to bed soon.
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I would say "I told you so" but I'm not happy about being proven right this way.
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Even before he told me it was his hit I was 90% sure teks was town-aligned last night.
At this point I'm about 99% sure he's the second vigi and that it was his hit.
JeeJee I'd suggest locking teks up tonight.
I'm not going to make public accusations right now since we should have lots more info by the second 24 hours of this day and if that matches my suspicions we should have this in the bag.
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I'd like teks to post a list of who has yet to roleclaim when he next gets a chance.
We don't want to wait too long to discuss our candidates for lynching, lest we end up with half the town not having good information when they vote.
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What's the argument for Raxor? Mainly clues? Granted, he has disappeared since I called him out on day 2.... Hard to say what I think right now but at least I think he's better than Jayme.
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I know some of you are not going to read this whole thing. I would ask that you do, but if you must, skip to my conclusions part for my thoughts on Shikyo. This post should be far better organized than most of my previous huge posts though, since I actually had an organization scheme this time
I have spent some pretty serious time examining Shikyo's behavior. I have broken his posts down into several categories and snipped parts that I did not find particularly meaningful. You are free to do your own analysis if you disagree with mine.
SHIKYO AND PLANNING:
+ Show Spoiler +Shikyo makes some campaign promises: + Show Spoiler +Shikyo wrote:
That's basically how I'm planning on using the day 1's clues; As a support for suspicious people, and also as a support for future clues. In the case there is absolutely no one suspicious(highly unlikely), I will think about it according to the situation, most likely someone relatively inactive. Shikyo wrote:
I will not fall for stupid bandwagons, and will try to make the town come to it's senses. Shikyo wrote:
I will always follow logic, and will not make too hasty decisions. I will generally vote for a suspicious player who can be connected to clues. Okay. These all make sense to promise the town regardless of alignment. Shikyo's actions since then don't quite live up to his promises though if you ask me. His day 1 lynch of Therapy makes sense period; Therapy was inactive, he hardly defended himself, we had no real solid clues. He gets offed flips green. Too bad. On day 2, there was (as everyone saw) a pretty nice train voting for Jayme. I judge that it was well and truly on its way to being an easy bandwagon vote at about May 22 2009 03:02 (at that time, there were six votes for Jayme, and zero for any other candidate). Shikyo does not do much to "make the town come to its senses" in my judgment: + Show Spoiler +Shikyo is around at 4:57 and at 7:30 (he posts at those times). By 7:30, there was one additional vote for Jayme. Shikyo posts this at 7:30: Shikyo wrote:
I'm not saying that Jayme is innocent. I'm just saying that maybe you shouldn't bandwagon for him so pointlessly, and maybe think about it for a while. The clues aren't as strong as they seem.
That being said, his behavior admittably has been relatively suspicious. Although I still have a bad feeling about all this bandwagoning. Then, On May 22 2009 08:45 Shikyo wrote:
Ok. With that vote, I would like to present another suspect: epicdoom. Reason is obvious, but if you want it, highly suspicious voting and he hasn't posted at all. He provides a suspect. Still no vote. Still no derailment of the vote train. Shikyo's thoughts on epicdoom: Shikyo wrote:
Most likely he's just a stupid mafia. There's no way a townie would act like that. And if one did, I'd want him dead regardless. Furthermore, Shikyo's PM to zeks saying Shikyo thinks zeks is the Godfather was at 5:xx on May 22. Still no vote--Shikyo is the last voter on day 2, and he abstains and votes for double lynch.
Shikyo did not live up to his campaign promise about bandwagoning. The simple fact is he didn't vote on day 2, and three votes could do a good deal to at least make people think before voting.
I am guilty of this as well; I should not have withdrawn my vote from Raxor. It's possible Shikyo misplayed (like me) and he's town-aligned.
SHIKYO AND ACCUSATIONS:
+ Show Spoiler +Shikyo has pointed a lot of fingers in this topic. He has cast suspicion on BWdero, Foolishness, The_Master, Jimtudor, epicdoom, motbob, iLoveKTF, and (of course) zeks. Two more and he'll have two full hands. I will leave his role in the zeks accusation for later since that was significantly more fleshed out than the rest. Here are relevant posts: + Show Spoiler [BWdero] +Shikyo wrote:
BWdero has thus far only made one post in this topic. [snip BWdero's post]
This post can basically be considered as just repeating information that already has been said, without adding anything new. So what's so interesting about this post? It is the usage of some powerful words, especially "idiot" and "rubbish". I checked all of BWdero's post from the last 3 games he played in, and indeed, he never used this kind of language, rather, his posts were respective most of the time, although there were sometimes a few sarcastic lines mixed in. He was a townie in all 3 games.
Also, the word "betray" feels slightly strange here. Would a townie use the word "betray" like this? To me, it seems more likely that he would feel like they themselves would be betrayed to use such a word. Which would make me believe he'd be mafia.
Also, there's the issue of him voting for JeeJee, which is what made me initially check him up, after his first post had caught my eye before. He basically only came on and voted. Isn't that strange? Now, I checked his voting history the past 3 games, and he has generally been bandwagoning, as in, voting for the person with the most votes.In one case in the last mafia, there were multiple possible lynchables, where he abstained. In the same mafia, he voted for Qatol for office after 4 people had voted him before him.
In all the lynch votes, he was generally voting for the person who had the most votes. In mafia 5, however, he voted for semioldguy, although BC had more votes at the moment. After that, however, he changed his vote to Pyrruloxia right after 3 people had voted for him.
So in this case, it seems really strange for him to come on just to vote for JeeJee without having really said anything in the thread for a long time. And his language and word choice seem suspicious to me, as well.
What do you guys think about this? JeeJee says he doesn't think the language is a big deal. Shikyo's next post: On May 19 2009 09:09 Shikyo wrote:
His way of talking, albeit odd, wasn't really my main concern. I was just stating what I thought and observed, it's up to you to make out of it what you will. Seems a contradiction to me. The accusation never seemed particularly strong to begin with. Shikyo wrote:
But why have you [Foolishness], always, been so strongly against me? You keep talking about my flaws and suspicious behavior, but basically back that up with me being defensive without pinpointing it more accurately.
...
Now what I'm curious about is if you have ever thought of this scenario: You're a mafia who thinks I am a good mayor candidate, so you try to stop people from voting me and cast suspicion on me, in addition with advocating incorrect play like avoiding lynching mafia. We see here a case of backwards logic in the accusation: if Foolishness is mafia, then his actions make sense. There is also, like I said earlier in the topic, an interpretation of Foolishness's actions and timing up to that point as making him very likely townie. This feels mostly like a retaliatory accusation to me. Similar to an OMGUS vote, except without the vote of course. + Show Spoiler +OMGUS
"Oh, my god, you suck!" This is usually said before a retaliatory vote. An OMGUS vote is poor strategy as it does not use any logic or reasoning to determine the person being voted against is indeed mafia. Mafia members may use OMGUS votes to throw a random vote out without raising suspicion. Town players may use it in frustration, or in lieu of a random vote. Shikyo wrote:
I'd also like to point out that The_Master has been quite inactive as well. His first post was basically a "I will post for the sake of posting" post that added absolutely nothing and was most likely highly ignored. However, that seems slightly more sincere to me, and hence I'm not that suspicious him. It still is something to note, though. Another weak suspicion-raising post. Shikyo wrote:
I'm kind of second-guessing Jimtudor, though. He seems to not have contributed anything much for the town recently, so I hope he'll do so soon. I'm not too convinced that he's mafia, though, although it definitely is possible. Very noncommittal. Comes after others already had suggested Jimmy was suspicious. Shikyo wrote:
I would like to present you with another suspect: motbob.
He basically only posted twice, asking for BWdero's profile picture and ran for Sheriff, and hasn't posted since. In his Sheriff post he promised high activity. Why isn't he being as active as he should be if he wasn't elected? Why did he abstain from voting?
That salesman clue indeed could refer to his quote "Join Teamliquid Whatpulse Team!", and I don't think it's as weak as you would think, because I don't see anything else in anyone else's profiles resembling anything like trying to get something sold. That's the only thing I could connect to him, though. He still seems suspicious, and might be worth considering for tomorrow. Another weak suspicion. I read motbob's inactivity as most probably a townie who didn't want a green role and got bored. It's possible he's red and is hiding in the inactives, but I think this is significantly less likely. The salesman clue may not be meaningless; hard to say. Shikyo wrote:
I find it interesting how epicdoom hasn't posted, and has abstained from voting. Is he just a lazy townie who doesn't want to get modkilled? Shikyo wrote:
Ok. With that vote, I would like to present another suspect: epicdoom. Reason is obvious, but if you want it, highly suspicious voting and he hasn't posted at all. Pointing at yet another inactive. Strange voting? Yes. Weak accusation? Yes. Does Shikyo recognize this? My guess is yes. In these short accusations (for lack of a better word) the main thing I read is that Shikyo is often noncommittal toward people he suspects and that he is quite eager to voice suspicions toward inactives. There were two other targets whom Shikyo has accused in longer posts, iLoveKTF and zeks. + Show Spoiler [iLoveKTF] +Shikyo wrote:So, let's talk about iLoveKTF for a while, shall we? Warning: this is going to be LONG. I've decided to spoiler it in order for the post to not take up 5 screens. But don't you dare to argue with me without having read it all. + Show Spoiler +"I have decided on this before I have received my role. I will be running for office, either one will do, but I prefer to be Mayor." Says he decided on this before receiving his role as an attempt to gain trust. He prefers to be Mayor. Note: In crate's analysis, he came to the conclusion(as did I) that Mayor is more important to MAFIA, Sheriff more important to TOWN. Well, it's not like it's strange for a townie to especially ask for mayor(although I can't think of a reason), is it? So maybe he still has good intentions, let's be positive. The rest of his office consisted of him saying that he played well as a medic in the last game; Nothing about what he'll do this game. After this, he spends a couple of posts adding nothing. Just random commenting about rules and about the day 1 post's style. Note: No attempt at clue analysis. After a little bit of spam, he just is quiet for a while. After this, he tells me he wants the first lynch more than the Sheriff skills. Why might that be? Well, incarcenation is extremely suspicious for mafia to do. If they incarcenate for no reason, they'll be in the meat grinder next. And why would he think that the first lynch is so important, since the town will most likely decide on someone themselves, anyway? Well, he basically tells us to vote for him again. Ok. Now, let's pick out the interesting, suspicious posts that come by next. Oh, he makes a post, where he says that the medic list is the first priority after elections. Sounds reasonable. However, a few posts after that, he makes a fascinating post. Let me quote an interesting part of it. On May 19 2009 10:57 iLoveKTF wrote:I suggest we scratch the medic list and trust on our medic's decision on who he/she will protect for night 1. Medics, we trust in you... Wait, so he suggests us to not have a medic list after all, right after proposing one himself? Especially in a game meant for beginners, when it's likely that they aren't able to properly decide who to protect, and might require some easy reference? And he HAS played before, even well according to himself. So he isn't stupid. His sentence about trusting the medics makes sense, though. If by "we" he means Mafia, that is. Next, I present my medic list, on page 12. It includes Jimtudor and doesn't have iLoveKTF in it. What does iLoveKTF first say about it? First of all, he doesn't mention at all that 5 pages ago he thought that we don't need a medic list. Then, he thinks that Jimtudor shouldn't be on it because he's under suspicion. Under suspicion? Well, people had been discussing if they should rolecheck the people who lose the run for office and Jimtudor was brought up. Note again how iLoveKTF isn't explaining the suspicion at all, just tells him to read the last few pages. He himself has STILL added ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to the game. Repeating others at best. On May 20 2009 12:59 iLoveKTF wrote:
Things to do right now:
1. Finalize the medic list.
2. Medics do your jobs. (I hope those 2 inactives who havent voted arent medics)
3. Wait for day and see who dies and let the finger pointing begin. Now, he's just giving orders (that are common sense), not adding anything. Once again. Ah, now Koopie tells me how iLoveKTF is going to be useful for the town, on page 16. Well that's nice, since until now, he has done absolutely nothing. But that's all been relatively minor. Now, let's examine this post: On May 21 2009 12:42 iLoveKTF wrote:
Oh man. I was expecting jimtudor to be red. He really seemed suspicious because he voted for Shikyo, though it didnt matter cause jeejee wouldve won either way, because Jeejee was suspecting him too. Yeah I, along with those who suspected jimtudor, look like mafia right now. But I think the mafia's plan was to kill jimtudor so that the attention will be pointed towards us and not them. I just hope jimtudor didnt role claim to the elected officials cause if he did, we are semi-fucked. And if he did roleclaim, I hope the other BG didnt. Also, If jimtudor roleclaimed then we would know 1 of Jeejee and Shikyo is red.
Right now, I am very suspicious of Shikyo. My theory is that he would put jimtudor in his medic list so that he wont look suspicious if jimtudor died. And if at any case a medic protected jimtudor, the mafia decided to stack 2 hits on him. Ofcourse this wouldnt be true if a medic had a hit blocked last night.
Damn I really thought Jimtudor was red. Sorry man, RIP. :p Okay, does this make sense to anyone? Why was he really suspicious because he voted for me? Especially since, as he said, it didn't matter. And iLoveKTF really NEVER, EVER said what he exactly thought was suspicious, even before. He just said that he's under suspicion. And then a gigantic apology post, although he did nothing? Who would feel that they need to write a huge post like this in that kind of a situation, where some others had started suspecting him as well(for no reason, may I add)? Oh, but the fun in this post doesn't end there! The mafia's plan was to kill Jimtudor so that the attention would be pointed towards "us" and not "them"? What the hell? Who would come to that conclusion? That would be such a stupid plan. It's a stupid thing to even lynch a suspected person, as I think I've stated before. Why would the town suddenly think that if someone who people thought was mafia was killed... the people who thought he was mafia would be mafia themselves? It makes no sense. They wouldn't kill him off. They would keep casting suspicion and try to get him lynched. His train of thought makes NO sense. It's sad I already established that he's not stupid, since I'm starting to believe that he actually is pretty damn stupid. Unless, of course, he's a mafia trying to think of something that might fool someone. Hey, but we're not done with this post yet! At the end, he suspects that I would put Jimtudor on my medic list so that I wouldn't look suspicious if he died. Ummm what? Hey, iLoveKTF, maybe you didn't know, but medics are actually supposed to protect people on that list. But you seem to have a foolproof plan ready! Let's stack 2 hits on Jimtudor! First of all, those hits are valuable for Mafia. if I was planning on getting him killed that night, I could have easily went with the suspicion and took him off the list. Second, very suspicious of me? It's not like other lists didn't have his name there. And then a ridiculous plan that someone needs to explain to me for it to make any sense. Wow. -_- He's for lynching Jayme, too. I might have to think about this again in the case Jayme is red. But I'm almost sure he'll be green, or even blue(unlikely because of how inactive he is). He's acting like he's adding something to the discussion by bringing up double lynch. Again, this was inevitable and was probably mentioned before. Posts that appear to have content but in fact do not. Let's examine these 2 posts, now. On May 21 2009 14:21 iLoveKTF wrote:
Yeah Im voting to lynch Jayme unless something better comes up. Also, we need to discuss if we are gonna use double lynch for day 3 or not. Imo, yes. Using it after Day3 is wasting too much time. We need as much kills as possible (of course through thorough clue analysis). On May 21 2009 14:23 iLoveKTF wrote:
edit: by "We need as much kills as possible" I mean "We need as many dead mafia as possible". Everyone, think to yourself. Would a townie feel the need to correct something like that? Wasn't it obvious what he meant? To me, the correction looked really unnecessary. But maybe he thought he'd come out wrong. Although, why would a townie need to worry about that? On May 22 2009 12:29 iLoveKTF wrote:
Voted in favor of Double lynch coz fingers have been pointed to alot of people. We'd have many suspects next day.
Abstained from lynching coz I know Jayme is surely gonna get lynched. Currently analyzing some posts/accusations while waiting for Night post. Or so that you wouldn't be connected to voting for him if he turns green? If Jayme's red, it'd be amazing. I just doubt it. Oh, before that post iLoveKTF was talking about his profile thread. Basically another set of empty posts with no content. Based on that, I strongly believe that iLoveKTF is mafia. Clues aren't my speciality, but I think some possible ones have already been suggested. That's long; let's break it down and focus on some of what I think are particularly relevant points. Shikyo wrote:
Wait, so he suggests us to not have a medic list after all, right after proposing one himself? Especially in a game meant for beginners, when it's likely that they aren't able to properly decide who to protect, and might require some easy reference? And he HAS played before, even well according to himself. So he isn't stupid. This is quite possibly entirely true. Proposing one then reneging on the proposal doesn't look good at all. Shikyo wrote:
The mafia's plan was to kill Jimtudor so that the attention would be pointed towards "us" and not "them"? What the hell? Who would come to that conclusion? That would be such a stupid plan. It's a stupid thing to even lynch a suspected person, as I think I've stated before. Why would the town suddenly think that if someone who people thought was mafia was killed... the people who thought he was mafia would be mafia themselves? KTF is using a WIFOM argument here (http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=WIFOM). Shikyo misses this. I don't read much into the alignment of either player from it. The mafia gains by leaving Jimmy alive if they can keep discussion focused on him; the mafia loses by leaving Jimmy alive in that he's a decently active poster who might make some solid contributions. I don't read any more into the choice to hit Jim since I don't think there are any other solid conclusions to make. iLoveKTF's reasoning in that post doesn't look particularly solid to me, but this post is not focused on iLoveKTF so I will leave that for another time. Shikyo wrote:
At the end, he suspects that I would put Jimtudor on my medic list so that I wouldn't look suspicious if he died. Ummm what? Anyone who didn't think Jimmy was one of the top six posters on day 1 looks suspicious to me. End of story. Shikyo wrote:
Everyone, think to yourself. Would a townie feel the need to correct something like that? Possibly. You're reading too much in how something is written again instead of looking at what people are saying. I don't read anything in iLoveKTF's vote on day 2 either really. Day 2 voting was just a disaster for the town overall really. Regardless of the alignment of iLoveKTF, this argument doesn't look particularly convincing to me. Shikyo is nitpicking in much of it, misunderstanding in some, and raising valid concerns in some of it. There may be something behind it, but the argument itself is poor. This brings me to zeks. I will not be quoting the entirety of Shikyo's posts. You may look them up yourself if you wish to look for more context than I provide. + Show Spoiler [zeks] +First I will present cases that I think show the circular logic used to reach the conclusion "zeks is Godfather" + Show Spoiler [Circular Logic] +Shikyo wrote:
It seems like in your argument with teks, you do your best to correct unimportant things that really don't matter in the long run, like him using a too powerful tone or whatever, but you really just asked stupid rhetorical questions and actually failed to prove anything. Possibly not circular logic; possibly is. Shikyo wrote:
(about zeks having suggested rolechecking the losers of the election)
Foolishness, that's actually a great point you bring up. Your Shikyo-Is-Mafia obsession aside, that indeed does make sense if zeks is the godfather. If zeks is GF, then he wants to be rolechecked, so since he proposed rolechecking he must be GF. I offered my own interpretation on this action (which also proved to be wrong, but I think that's because zeks played badly); I concluded that zeks was blue, not that he was red. This is especially strange since teks (then later Shikyo) posted suggesting having the losers rolechecked before zeks even made a single post in the topic. Shikyo wrote:
think about this scenario:
Zeks is the godfather, so he's safe from rolechecks. He notices that we're going to check him if he's not elected. He starts posting really late. He knows he has no chance of winning the elections anymore, but he runs for office anyway. Why is that? He was planning on losing the elections all along. Why did he ask for people to vote for him in so many occassions?
He wanted to be considered a prime candidate, someone we indeed should rolecheck after the elections are over, just according to the plan. His DT R/C plans and such all complement this story. This also gives a possible answer to the mysterious, seemingly stupid, hit of Jimtudor as well. He was an obvious third, and he would have been the prime candidate for a DT rolecheck. In fact, he was almost sure to be rolechecked. He'd have been shown as innocent, and the town could have started trusting him.
However, zeks wanted to be the one who people see as innocent, so he killed Jimtudor off. It's likely he even used 2 hits against him because he wanted to be sure to take him out. Now, a DT would R/C him according to the plan, see he's an innocent(although he isn't), and the town would give all of their information to him. However, it was not to be. The bolded sentence alone made me disregard this the first time I read Shikyo's argument. Other things in the argument I wish to discuss: + Show Spoiler [Other stuff] +Shikyo wrote:
In fact, he was the first person to suggest him being lynched. On the second day, zeks said that it'd also be a good thing to lynch Jayme because of the clues etc. I find it slightly suspicious that he never clue analysed thoroughly, only for those people, who in fact turned out to be innocent. If zeks is green, then he might just have legitimately thought Jayme was mafia on day 2 and that Therapy might have been a good suggestion as well. I do not think this is unreasonable. I do not think this implies zeks is red. True, if he is red it also makes sense ... but that's the problem with circular reasoning. This maybe belongs above. Shikyo wrote:
In his DT R/C plan, it doesn't make sense for him to not think that the probability of R/Cing Godfather isn't large enough.
If he's a green or blue, it makes no sense for him to talk about the medic list but then not suggest a list of his own.
If he's a green or blue, his terrible arguments about the reasons behind mafia including Jimtudor on a medic list don't make sense. I simply refute these points. He is simply more risky than you and the latter two ... there wasn't much discussion since the medic lists were all too obvious both nights imo. Shikyo wrote:
Also, if he's green or blue, his defense about minor information makes no sense, instead he should be pointing out where he has been useful for the town and what about his behavior isn't mafia-like. http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Burden_of_ProofYes zeks flubbed his defense pretty badly, I won't refute that. Shikyo wrote:
And where do you think the suspicion about him being the godfather would come from? From him suggesting it himself? I'd have found him more suspicious if he hadn't mentioned the possibility.
My conclusion here is that Shikyo's argumentation and reasoning are consistently flawed. He is eager to provide suspects but unwilling to commit himself to taking responsibility for the suggestion (note also that the zeks = GF thing was actually presented by teks despite Shikyo having suspicions as early as the middle of Day 2).
OTHER POSTS I FOUND INTERESTING:
+ Show Spoiler [Miscellaneous] +Shikyo wrote:
It definitely is something I would do if I was mafia. I'd point out the unimportant flaws of my opponent's arguments. You seem to be awfully sure about how the mafia would act. Shikyo wrote:
If you really are a townie, why haven't you been contributing anything at all, besides being suspicious about the 2 people we lynched... who were innocent? Shikyo wrote:
It really is unaccurate and it's extremely easy for mafia to point out potential clues for non-mafias. Yet he specifically goes about finding clues the wrong way when looking at zeks. Shikyo wrote:
Maybe you, Koopie, Foolisness and whoever else should now spend a while trying to think of clues pointing to me. You know, it really shouldn't be that hard, since a person dies every time a mafia lynches someone, right? I'm looking forward to reading your suggestions. But behavior analysis is--you yourself said--better. Shikyo wrote:
Was it the second time I was right? [referring to Jayme being green] Was zeks the second time I was right? http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=7for7Shikyo wrote:
I love how Foolishness is basically doing nothing in this thread but casting suspicion on me. You pointed more fingers than anyone else. Also, for anyone interested, here are Shikyo's thoughts on what a mafia-made medic list would look like: Shikyo's thoughts on a mafia medic list
Normally, I think it should have a couple of well contributing innocents, and then it should have one or two mafia that still post quite a bit mixed in. And then it would probably lack an important contributer or two so that mafia might have an easier time hitting them. (This is his response to me PMing him).
Shikyo is confident that the mafia would act the way he thinks they would and he is also somewhat hypocritical.
CONCLUSION
Put it all together. He fails to deliver on his campaign promise as mayor. He is consistently making weak arguments against various players (I find the sheer volume of Shikyo's finger-pointing quite odd) and utilizes faulty logic in his arguments. His day 2 activities ... he says he is wary of the bandwagon voting, yet for some reason during this time he is uncharacteristically silent about his suspicions and refuses to vote until the very end of the voting.
There are two possibilities here. One is that Shikyo is simply a terrible player and is handing the mafia this game on a silver platter despite being town-aligned (I'm not going to make the same mistake of overestimating a player like I did with zeks) because he's making me and others look at his poor argumentation and see red. The other is that he's bleeding red and has been since day 1.
The largest counterargument I can see is that teks did not take a hit last night (unless Esben also hit someone on night 2, but I do not think he did so) and I think (teks can confirm or deny this) that Shikyo knew teks was vig'ing zeks. On the other hand, perhaps the mafia thought teks would get medic protection on night 2 and didn't bother.
It is possible I missed something, but I am confident in this analysis.
Further thoughts
I realize this post is huge, so you can easily skip this section--it's musings on how to interpret events if Shikyo is mafia.
+ Show Spoiler +By the way, the timing of teks's accusation is a big part of why I am convinced he really is a vigi. It makes no sense for a green to post at that time (to me, anyway: you're making yourself a target, the town doesn't gain much from flinging around suspicions at night anyway, and you can give your suspicions to someone else via PM--better yet, multiple someones--and have them post should you actually die). It makes sense for people who have no sense of timing to post then, it makes sense for a vigi to post then, and it makes sense for mafia to fling around suspicions like that in case a vigi bites.
If Shikyo is mafia, we had both of the cases that make sense going on. I'm willing to buy that teks was paranoid and came up with the timing on his own. My guess is teks wouldn't have struck without Shikyo's input to the accusation.
Like I said though, this is just me re-interpreting the events assuming Shikyo is mafia; my case for him actually being red is not predicated on the assumption that he is.
I have not seen any clues yet for Shikyo, but that's not going to sway me one bit with this record of his. Shikyo, if you're town-aligned, I'm declaring you mafia's MVP right now.
If you are mafia: decently well-played, sir, but you slipped up too much. I will commend you on your actions during night 2; apart from letting teks live (which may or may not have been a mistake) you did excellently.
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Shikyo wrote:
As I already told you in the PM, I hope you don't devote all of your time on this.
Don't worry, I'll be looking at other people too.
Shikyo wrote:
The lynch of Therapy was a bit hasty and I was hesitant. However, I had to sleep soon and didn't have the time to change to anyone. I was thinking of jayme but didn't get to think it through. The fact that I was a mayor honestly came a bit as a surprise.
I didn't say the lynch was awful. It's reasonable from any perspective.
Shikyo wrote:
I actually never was sure of him. The bandwagoning still seemed worrying, and I adviced against bandwagoning. I wanted to wait and see who I could vote for.
If you really wanted to stop it, my thought that you very much should have voted for someone other than Jayme stands. I gave a suggestion in Raxor, you were suspicious of zeks, you were suspicious of epicdoom ... but you did not vote. I made a mistake by withdrawing my vote, but at least I voted for someone other than Jayme in an attempt to make people think.
Actions speak louder than words here.
Shikyo wrote:
At the point I voted, and actually even a while before that, I was sure about my vote not mattering.
I know damn well your vote didn't matter by the time you voted. I also know you were online at a time when your vote would have mattered and you admit you had suspicions at that time but didn't vote.
Shikyo wrote:
I think that I also tried to push teks into hitting zeks way too strongly. -_- I regret that as well. I also think that that is actually the main reason why he suspects me at this time. I guess I was over-eager, I don't really have a good explanation, I was just being stupid overall, I guess. :/
Oh teks, why did you have to be so clumsy and roleclaim and make it so hard to read into this...?
Shikyo wrote:
I felt that if no one else does it, I have to do it. There really wasn't much accusing going on, just the bandwagoning. In fact, there still hasn't been many accusations except for mine.
Raxor has vanished since mid Day 2; I was suspicious of him then and I still am, particularly since he just comes in when he sees he's under suspicion then vanishes again. There's one other person I'm going to look into in the remainder of today ... hopefully I'll be able to speed up my analysis some.
I agree that no one else has done much (well, Foolishness has been ridiculously aggressive toward both you and me at times; I can't read him at all). I still think your myriad short posts about inactives are strange.
Shikyo wrote:
Also, I wanted to hear their reaction to being accused and pick something up off that. You could call that fishing.
Well you got a lot of nothing on that end. Why go after inactives if you're fishing? They're the least likely to reply, no?
Shikyo wrote:
I still think iLoveKTF is fishy, but not as fishy as before.
I think that some of your reasoning there was solid and we should look into iLoveKTF.... I do find it very unlikely that he was the only mafia candidate for the election and still got no votes though ... so then I'd think either you or JeeJee are mafia.
I'm not going to pretend I think JeeJee has done a great job either.
Shikyo wrote:
the others would just be a part of the storytelling, or might be something suspicious but not be worth that much.
If there's actually evidence, I find the storytelling unnecessary and think it weakens your argument. The emotional appeals involved would cloud more logical thinking.... Not a tactic I think benefits the town. You read Mafia VIII--what's the lesson you took out of the town's response to L and Ace's play? I got that the town doesn't see through emotions very well. Someone brought this up after the game in that thread (Incognito, I think).
It was clear just from the timing that you and teks had been working on the case against zeks together (this is a Starcraft forum after all, I would hope most people here have some sense of how important timing can be).
Shikyo wrote:
You're right, I hate committing myself to taking responsibility of someone I'm not sure about. However, I was sure about zeks, and was willing to take the responsibility. Sadly, it turns out I was wrong about him.
So in other words, we elected someone who absolutely lacks the confidence to be a leader. :\
Shikyo wrote:
I'm not sure about what the smilie face means
It means I found it amusing but not particularly relevant to determining your alignment.
Shikyo wrote:
That was just a taunt, with which I was merely attempting to annoy you.
That was just a taunt, with which I was merely attempting to annoy you.
+ Show Spoiler +actually it's more the case above: amusing but not particularly relevant
I do have some stylistic flair; there's a reason I put these miscellanous quotes at the end of my argument.
Shikyo wrote:
I'd prefer you to give the arguments in your own words
Ok. What do you want me to rephrase? I understand the logical fallacies I mentioned just fine and I saw no reason to describe them myself when I can just link to a page that does it for me.
And yes I suspected you were being facetious with that quote; I was similarly being facetious with my response. If you doubt it you can talk to Koopie about it; she knows my writing style far better than anyone else here and I have no doubt she'd see the lightheartedness of my comment there.
I'm not really as emotionless as it may seem at first glance.
Shikyo wrote:
Also, notice how kind it was of me to give him the supposed mafia medic list although I knew he was going to use it against me?
Why didn't you include the entire conversation?
I didn't feel it was particularly relevant.
Shikyo wrote:
Also, I'm pretty curious of why you believe this PM supports your claim of me knowing how the mafia thinks and acts, when you specifically requested a mafia medic list.
I honestly had no idea why you were confused about the medic list ... in my mind in this game the medic lists were such a no-brainer that discussing who should be on them was pretty pointless, but maybe others don't see it so clear-cut. Again, this is at the end because it's less important.
Actually I'm still not sure why you bothered debating about the medic list so much.
Shikyo wrote:
Many of the arguments seem to assume that, though.
Which ones? Trust me, I tried to go into this with as much objectivity as I could muster.
I look at your actions and see that on day 1 you clearly know how harmful bandwagoning can be. Then during day 2 we have a suspect that everyone jumps on right away while our mayor makes only weak posts saying "hey don't do that" and declines to vote despite having some suspicions. You didn't even mention that you thought zeks was suspicious until that night (teks you made the same mistake); your timing was atrocious on day 2. Do you dispute these conclusions?
Your arguments seem to be circularly constructed in the two cases where you create fleshed-out arguments (and you do admit to going about it that way later). The conclusions may or may not be correct (we know in one case they clearly were not, but then my arguments also failed; zeks acted very strangely for his role indeed).
From this I conclude that you've been pretty much useless and are either a bad player on town side or you are mafia. Your defense basically says "yes, I'm bad, but I'm town-aligned." I then go on to do some somewhat-interesting but rather useless speculation on how I might interpret events after reaching this conclusion.
I don't really buy your defense.
Shikyo wrote:
I never accused foolishness of being mafia seriously except for the time during day 1, which I forgot.
Most of your accusations aren't serious; I didn't read any more into that one than I did into the rest.
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teks wrote:
His plan was then to make me the confirmed and gullible townie, then have me give him the list "in the event that I die"
holy shit how did i miss this?
do NOT do that
The ONLY PERSON who should see the whole list is you, teks
If you are 100% sure someone else is townie, ok, go ahead and pass on the list (NOT TONIGHT since you should be in jail) but it's clear the mafia are not great at finding blues this game (Jim doesn't count since there was no way to know till he died) so do not make it all too easy for them.
JeeJee lock teks up tonight pls if you haven't already.
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Right now I'm going to call out Ra.Xor.2 and clazziquai.
I saw that clazzi is posting elsewhere on TL but has been silent this game.
http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?topic_id=93997
Might be just an inactive towny. Might not. Coming into the thread and saying "hay dudes i'm busy catch me up" doesn't sit well with me (then he vanishes afterward anyway).
Raxor is mostly the same case as I posted on day 2, seeing as he's awol from this game since then.
I will be looking into other players posts as I can today. iLoveKTF deserves another look for sure, and I also want to look at Judge's posts since I haven't looked him over much yet.
Rayne also looks like an ok vote to me.
Town: we need to come to a consensus on who we vote for. If the mafia swing this vote wrong it's pretty much game over.
Holding off on my second vote since none of them look like the clear best target right now anyway.
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ah, JeeJee posted as I was typing. Will go vote for Rayne then as he proposes.
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I'm just trying to keep teks from making a stupid mistake and giving the list to anyone he shouldn't.
I'm not assuming you meant you wanted the list, Shikyo; I don't know what the discussion between you and teks was like and he may be misinterpreting your actions. It's clear he's assuming you're mafia in that part of his post so it's not a good thing to argue from anyway.
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motbob wrote:
What I mean is, how can I be acting strangely if I haven't posted anything?
Declaring you want to run for sheriff then disappearing entirely from the thread is completely normal behavior dude.
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Shikyo, if you really are green, learn from your mistakes in this game when you play the next one.
You fucked up one way or another.
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if i was just fishing for info i just hooked a whale
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i am 100% convinced that shikyo is either a moron or mafia after his past two posts
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i'm not bitter about your fuckup with zeks
i'm more pissed at teks for it, he's the one who fucked up
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Do you really think a mafia would defend himself like that?
Yes.
You've clearly lost your cool; that's what does it for me. There are all of, what, four votes against you? If others don't buy my case, then they don't buy my case. I don't have a gun to their heads.
Newsflash: If I'm acting like an idiot, it doesn't mean I'm mafia. It just means I'm acting like an idiot.
Right. Stop acting like an idiot then.
If you're green, look over your mistakes and don't repeat them next game. Laugh at us when we lose if you want, and enjoy your MVP award.
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And yes, zeks fucked up in a lot of ways too. I assumed I had another ~48 hours to look him over before I came to a conclusion about him since I didn't think about a vigi hit. Otherwise I'd have done more.
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There's also the metagaming aspect of lynching someone who acts like an idiot (same metagaming aspect behind lynching inactives): it discourages it as a mafia tactic.
It's really easy to play like an idiot in various ways and use lots of emotional appeals, regardless of alignment, and it's really easy to play the idiot defense. Just like it's really easy to just receive your role and lurk without posting content.
If we don't kill off players who try those things ... mafia will take advantage eventually.
Anyway unless you say something that demands a response I'm moving on now. Rayne looks like a good lynch (in the metagame aspect if nothing else) but we still need to look at other posters.
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Go for it. You think I made mistakes?
I know I made mistakes.
I've nothing to hide right now. I'll call your bluff.
Shikyo wrote:
crate, the game isn't about lynching someone who "made mistakes" that you just got out of your ass, it's about lynching the mafia.
Yes and no. Yes in each individual game, but not entirely in the metagame sense. If you don't lynch stupid players then smart mafia will just act stupid and play the stupid card when called on it and they'll live. The game will eventually degrade into random finger-pointing with only clue analysis and DT and mafia-acting-like-DT roleclaims and such.
If you 14cc every game someone's going to BBS you until you stop doing it every game. It beats "standard play" but it's not the standard ... think about that for a bit. Same deal here.
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"The lady doth protest too much, methinks"
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hey
foolishness
i notice you didnt really contribute to this discussion other than more pointless prodding
are you going to be actually helpful?
Foolishness wrote:
You know crate, of those 8 people Shikyo has accused so far, only 2 have turned up to be townspeople, and the rest are up for grabs. I'm sure you have suspicions against one of those other 6 people as well (I know I do).
i mean, yeah, this says a whole lot huh? ... i said in my big post that i would look into ilovektf's posts again, so big stretch to say i'm suspicious mm?
mind outlining your suspicions?
preferably not just in a form where you just keep calling someone mafia till they agree to get you to shut up
And just for you Shikyo, I'll quote your post with plans so it isn't lost. No other motives on this one.
Shikyo wrote:
Everyone! After I turn up green, look up everyone who voted for me and either
a) voted for the other townie
b) didn't vote for the other person who turned red.
If they are already suspects, I suggest lynching them, or at least considering to. I suggest you forgive people like crate and JeeJee and vx70GTOJudgexv, since they're probably confused townies. However, anyone else doing that is a suspect! That's probably a good place to start trying to correct this mistake you're about to make. Also, if it seems like I'll die for sure, I'm going to PM some directions and suggestions as I'm going to sleep. Because my alignment will be confirmed if I get lynched, maybe they'll listen to me a bit more than they are right now.
After someone dies it's usually a good idea to read up on their posts anyway. At least skim them.
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and yes foolishness
i post like this
when i talk to you
just so you can have fun with my style
i find it unspeakably amusing
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Anyone roleclaim mafia? ^^
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I'm following JeeJee on Rayne tbh.
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JeeJee what's that PM you were waiting for earlier? Get it yet? Don't give us cryptic hints then fail to deliver please.
On May 25 2009 22:29 JeeJee wrote:
Ok, I'm waiting on a PM from someone, to throw out the final recommendation vote (i might have to tip my hat to the alphabet man this game after all, obscure reference)
however, for now, please everyone do the following:
vote for double lynch and vote for omg[rayne]
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lol nevermind, i missed the post he made
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On May 26 2009 00:36 JeeJee wrote:
already done crate
also, pm received, decision made
to recap, our plan for today
vote for double, shikyo and omg[rayne]
i regret some of the things i've done.. jayme should not have died, and shikyo shouldn't have known as much as he does right now
time to turn this town around and pull out the golden chains of justice oft promised
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teks wrote:
All our links are so weak.
Which links do you think are weak?
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teks wrote:
Basically all our clues. As in, we have no really obvious ones.
If you're talking about Shikyo, I just don't see how he can be mafia and not kill off a confirmed townie + a dt, even if it meant that he would have died in the process.
What does "all our clues" mean? Don't be so vague here please.
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And teks I should be able to call you stupid for hitting zeks all game :p
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I'm weighing Shikyo's behavior as far more important than clues. You want to follow clue analysis, go ahead. I agree with using it on inactives; we need something to go on to pick which one to hit and we can't use posts there.
How about all those clues linking to zeks? Didn't stop you last night....
Stopping you now since you whiffed last time? :p
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This just looks like name-calling right now to me.
With the extra information I have now I'm not sure Shikyo is mafia, but I'm going to leave my vote where it is since I still think he fucked up day 2.
L : crate :: Ace : Shikyo
no the analogy isn't perfect, but it might turn out to be altogether too fitting.
lmao
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What do you want me to post?
Who do you want me to vote for?
This is why you don't get what you want from me.
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unless both of our lynches are red it hardly matters unless all three medics can see the mafia hitlist or something lol
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btw if you want my medic lovin' tonight let me know
might as well roleclaim since Midori posted it publicly anyway so the mafia know (Koopie sniped this on day 1 somehow ... I knew I'd never be able to hide it from her so I just admitted it on MSN ^^)
teks if you have some sort of plan going on you can tell me
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Fluidville realized the mafia might not be as big of a threat to the town as the town itself.
honeslty i'm pretty much done with this game
tempted to just randomize the names of who's left for medic prot and voting at this point
haha
next time guys let's not let half the town just sit there doing nothing while we implode
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Even if all mafia hits go through, the town can still win if they don't miss again
13/7 right now
10/7 next morning
10/6 + incarc mafia
8/6
8/5
6/5
6/4
4/4 (mafia win here)
4/3
2/3
2/2
I dont see it pyrry. even if we get the incarc right tomorrow we still run out of players unless we do block at least 1 hit
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o rite double lynch, forgot that
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i think the following people are mafia:
1. iLoveKTF
2. chaoser
3. Pawsom
4. Foolishness
6. clazziquai
7. motbob
9. crate
10. Shikyo
11. wurm
15. ydg
16. sugiuramidori
17. vx70GTOJudgexv
18. Ra.Xor.2
20. The_Master
24. Knutti
25. JeeJee
27. l10f
29. phelix
31. epicdoom
teks is vigi so he's ok
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hey
mafia
dont you DARE hit foolishness tonight
i'm protecting him
because
we're bffs
fo sho
^^
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since foolishness clearly thinks my posting is useless
i just decided
i'd appease him
and make it useless fo realz
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dont keep rejecting me i know you love me!
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btw i took the other hit last night lol
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Not like it matters if I say it publicly....
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Sorry for not posting yesterday. Started my internship Tuesday and fixing my sleep schedule plus working 9+ hour days kinda killed me. Should be able to post again later once I catch up.
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teks if the blues are all confirmed I suggest you at least tell us who is on the townie list so we know who (not) to look at
I mean, up to you, but I don't see how that possibly hurts the town right now unless like you say one of the blues was actually dumb enough to not roleclaim properly.
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Oh right....
Sending it to everyone blue would make sense though.
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Aww.
Now I don't have to protect him again.
Now I have to think about my night action.
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On May 29 2009 10:55 Shikyo wrote:
Foolishness is like the town's MVP and no one is listenning to him. ^_^ Seriously
Then what are we supposed to do?
He said a bit of what not to do but I'm not seeing much instruction of what to do here....
Anyway, my vote's staying and I'm off to bed. Already been too tired this week from waiting for posts in this topic.
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On May 29 2009 12:28 JeeJee wrote:
ok
just cluechecked the scarlet embarrassment death release sentence at shikyo and got a positive
hahahahahaha
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yo foolishness, you were too late
had you made that post BEFORE i went to bed
i probably would have listened.
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wait I didn't think that was a joke either
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Also btw JeeJee I almost didn't bother protecting Foolishness last night after I said I was going to in the thread. But then, I've had three "almost" protections and zero actual ones.... Playing medic properly is way too hard.
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There was no reason for Pyrry to continue this game after day 3 imo lol
In past games, if you checked if a certain clue pointed to a certain person and got that it did, that was the best mafia confirmation you could have (aside from having the player die). Millers did not have clues in past games.
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If JeeJee is mafia then some random nub DT roleclaimed towny
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And mafia claiming DT isn't really unusual at all nor is it "low" imo. Honestly I'm surprised it doesn't happen more around here.
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If JeeJee checked what he said he did (if that clue pointed to Shikyo) then he's either lying or Shikyo is mafia. You're a DT, you should know how cluechecks work lol....
Well actually he's lying in either case unless Shikyo is mafia.
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Congrats on 2k posts btw JeeJee
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I hope we lose so we can all just stop looking stupid now tbqh
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If there's one thing I want to take from this game it's that 48 hours isn't half as long as it seems.
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(from OP)
Detective
You are a super sleuth. Once per night phase, you may PM me to ask one of the following, which I will answer:
1. Does X contain a clue? (Where X is part of a Day post) (called a "Clue Check")
2. Does X contain a clue that points to Y? (Where X is part of a Day post and Y is a player's name) (called a "Clue Check")
3. What is Y's role? (Where Y is a player's role) (called a "Role Check")
X can be no larger than one sentence.
A Role Check cannot be done during Night 1. Only 3 Role Checks may be performed per DT per game. The 3rd Role Check cannot be done before Night 5.
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He couldn't, unless he's magically using the other form of cluecheck on the Day 4 post before it's made.
lol.
Either JeeJee got lucky on his cluecheck, or he's lying.
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On May 30 2009 14:25 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Town is still alive, game is still going.
lol what?
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also jeejee
lmao
that's four "almost" saves from me and zero actual ones
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i am so good at this game
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For now I'm going to trust JeeJee and vote Shikyo.
We'll see what happens later.
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And it was both of us really.
Though the funny thing is my second choice was to protect clazzi.
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If I were Pyrry I'd have ended the game a while ago lol, so I really have no idea.
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I think mafia MVP was general inactivity or apathy tbh. I don't think Midori played badly at all, but seriously....
The people who I remember saying a good bit of stuff:
me
Shikyo
teks
Foolishness (mostly after day 2 though...)
zeks
Judge
and kind of Midori/iLoveKTF
JeeJee did after the game was pretty much hopeless (and some of that was >_> ). I guess motbob also said stuff after the game was hopeless.
Hard to say about Jimtudor since he died night 1
That leaves 2/3 of the players (>half the town and 6/7 mafia) that didn't say much at all really.
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I said in the thread that I was a medic and I outright TOLD Midori I was a medic.
How did you not think I was a medic?
lmao
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On May 31 2009 03:51 ydg wrote:
That leaves 2/3 of the players (>half the town and 6/7 mafia) that didn't say much at all really.
hey you like my bullshit clue connections, which would've worked until teks' role claiming event, by which you should have gotten us all
I didn't really read your clue post and I don't remember you saying much of anything else at all.
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also btw
night 1 I almost protected softer (no lie); night 2 I thought about protecting Koopie instead of Midori for a bit till the teks thing; night 3 I almost protected Judge after my post about me protecting Foolishness.
Medic is fucking hard.
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Btw I'd like to thank Pyrry for running this game.
I had fun even though the game was bascially a handful of us townies bitching at each other until the game was lost.
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ygd, it's really hard to notice bullshit connections,
This is why I didn't read clue posts, especially before day 3/4.
In retrospect
I said after the night 1 hits that mafia took out people who did clue analysis, then on day 2 we get 2 mafia (ydg and Midori) popping in to give us clue analysis?
I missed that entirely.
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Anyone with Paint skills I request a pic of me, Shikyo, teks, and Foolishness bitching at each other with 7 others (the mafia) laughing at us.
That sums up the game as far as I'm concerned.
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yes having people who aren't playing influence our game
totally fair
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After day 3 I was willing to follow pretty much anyone who just told me what to do (well, anyone confirmed blue). I had mostly lost interest in the game, had realized that no one posting much was mafia (ok, I got Midori wrong), and I had started my internship anyway.
Foolishness didn't tell me what to do in time (not that it would have mattered unless there was another person who was waiting to vote for l10f) so I didn't follow him.
Actually there were a lot of cases of people waiting too long to say stuff I think.... I waited too long on night 2 to talk more about zeks; everyone waited too long and did too little during day 2 voting; JeeJee waited way to long to do anything; I think Foolishness waited too long to start making sense (honestly dude a lot of why I didn't listen to you was because of how you played on the first 2 days).
Still though with about six or seven out of the 31 players actually doing much it looked like a lost cause to me.
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And Koopie you really let me down.
I told you to come play then you don't do anything. Don't be so scared to post next time :<
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JeeJee's bad play was mainly before that--when he didn't do much of anything.
Pretty sure that him lying about the cluecheck was after he didn't care.
I mean, ok, it's still bad play but seriously I would have felt terrible if we somehow managed to win that game since mafia deserved it the whole way.
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Honestly Rayne should have just died anyway. He did nothing but hurt the town. If he was just going to make random votes and snide one-liners he should have just not voted and gotten modkilled.
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Also I feel better now that I know Ace made the same conclusion I did.
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which, by the way, should be avoided as much as possible in these games due to mixed-gender players.
Far as I'm concerned, "he" is both masculine and gender-neutral in English. Yes there are other options, but they're all cumbersome and look awful.
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Yep, my policy is always to use he and man if the gender of the player is unknown (i.e. in a day post) but try to use she and woman if that player's identity is known (if they are dying). Seems fair to me?
This is what I would do.
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After playing a game here the biggest thing I see different about the TL mafia games compared to a more "normal" mafia game (no clues, 1 KP mafia) is that the mafia has so much more KP than the town does in TL games. This means the town can't afford to kill off players who are playing poorly or who are not posting and still win--unless the game is just blatantly town-favored at the start.
The setup here is also very dependent on how the town does right away, since mafia KP drops as mafia numbers drop. If the town misses a couple lynches early it's GG; if the town gets the first couple all correct mafia have a huge hole to climb out of. There's not so much "slippery slope" with static KP for the mafia.
You can't just drop the mafia to 1 KP because the game would take way too long.
I think it'd be interesting to give the town double lynch every day and see what happens, probably leaving mafia KP at 3 for a game this size. With the KP more equal the dynamics are closer to a more traditional setup, inactive players probably don't fuck the town over as much as they did in this game (we can afford to lynch them), individuals playing badly doesn't matter as much either (we can afford to lynch them), etc. On first glance it seems to me that with double lynch every day and mafia static 3 KP the game is less luck-based, you eliminate slippery slope, and single players making bad decisions won't matter as much for either side (mafia of course have a couple more members--probably about 10 mafia for 30 total players since 1/3 mafia seems pretty standard from what I know). The play of the town as a whole and mafia as a whole still matter, of course.
Anyway that's what I'd do if I were to run a game. I'd keep the roles pretty standard (the ones in this game were nice), give the town double lynch every day, give mafia static KP, and no clues (I suck at them--I'm not convinced that clues really matter too much either way though) and see what happens.
edit: on second thought, I might drop mafia KP to a static 2. Not sure yet which would be better.
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Shikyo wrote:
Foolishness was just acting about wanting to kill me etc. He was being really smart behind the scenes...
And that helped the portion of the town he wasn't talking to him how? All I saw from my vantage point was someone who shot me a couple quick PMs on day 1 then started going apeshit on Shikyo and me without saying much later. I can't look over the PMs again at this point--I cleared my inbox--but yeah, Foolishness, you didn't convince me at all until teks told me you were a DT. Had he not said that....
I stayed out of behind-the-scenes discussions until day 3 for the most part. If someone asked a question I answered it (well, I may have forgotten in a couple cases. I didn't mean to do so) but otherwise I did my talking in the thread. I had nothing to hide, after all.
Hell I actually did get caught one of the few times I sent a PM this game. I asked Midori if she was going to remain active and she said yes and saw right there I was a medic. Go me.
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re: Ace's response to my possible game setup
I realize inactives still would hurt pretty badly and that bad players would still hurt too. My initial thoughts are with more even KP they wouldn't be as dramatic, but I can't say for sure.
I dunno, I was throwing that out there. I don't see a priori how double lynch every day means the town is OP (obviously there would be more than 7 mafia in a 30 player game; basically I was suggesting taking a 15 player standard mafia game and scaling it up by doubling everything. I realize this doesn't work with every kind of game but I don't see how it automatically fails here) but maybe it is true.
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You still think we had a chance after day 4?
I would have felt absolutely terrible had we actually won that game with what the town had done to that point.
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JeeJee played like shit too, yeah. I never denied that. I played pretty badly after day 3, sure, since I spent almost no time in the topic and I stopped trying and I wasn't perfect before that either. We already were forced to get some more medic protections correct to keep going (mafia KP would overwhelm the town) even if we got every lynch correct, right? (I didn't do the math but I remember someone saying this?)
The town as a whole had zero chance after day 4, seriously. The mafia should have just shut up and never said another word and we still would probably have lost because we were in a pretty much unwinnable situation unless both motbob and I could read minds. The only possible chance we had was having the best medic play ever after day 4.
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Shikyo wrote:
EDIT: Not to mention his fake accusing me and acting stupid at the beginning to drive attention away from him,
The problem I have with this is that afterward he's already shot his credibility with the town by acting like an idiot for 2 days (except for the handful of people he'd been PM'ing I guess?). Yes, it's good he gets under the radar from the mafia, yes he proved to be right, but had teks not told me Foolishness was a confirmed DT I never would have listened to him.
After he posted "it's not my role we should be focusing on" (or whatever he said) ... honestly he did a really good job of making me think my initial assessment of him as town-aligned was wrong.
I was looking for a town consensus on who to vote for on day 4 and I didn't get a straight answer till after I'd gone to bed either.
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It's not his fault if the town doesn't listen ^^
Oh really?
It's not entirely his fault, sure, but really he wasn't going about his work in a way to make him very believable imo.
edit: nvm I just realized why this post is pretty pointless and I'll address it in my next one
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The problem I have with Foolishness at the end of the game is he just waited too long to tell us straight out who to vote for.
He's confirmed DT. We know all the blues, so when he roleclaims DT publicly the town trusts that. They have to when no one speaks up against him.
Then he dicks around until an hour before voting closes without just saying "these people are mafia and here's why:"
Too late. Yes he was right. I was ready to listen to him. He didn't tell me what to do till I was asleep though, he also didn't tell you Shikyo who to vote for till you were asleep..
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EPT
