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On March 13 2008 15:20 fusionsdf wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2008 15:14 aZnvaLiaNce wrote:On March 13 2008 15:05 GeneralStan wrote:On March 13 2008 15:04 fusionsdf wrote:
Note: I will be running for mayor regardless of my assignment later on.
By announcing it right now, choosing me is less likely to end up with a mafia mayor than someone who runs for mayor after roles are assigned.
VOTE FOR ME(When the time comes) This is the most nonsensical argument I've ever heard qft because mafia will want to be mayor obviously. so if 1/7 people are mafia, right now, by electing me when my behavior is both known and independant of role, there would be 6/7 chance that Im a townie. After the roles are assigned and mafia start gunning for office, it much more likely that a candidate will be from the mafia.
You're assuming that a higher percentage of Mafia than of townies will run for mayor, which is not necessarily true, and wasn't, in the last game.
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What do you expect?--be precise. That one mafioso will run for Mayor? Two? All of them? I agree with you that it's a smart strategy to have a Mafia candidate. It's not necessarily smart for the Mafia to have multiple candidates--in fact, I think that's a bad idea for a number of reasons. Townies will not have the same compunctions about multiple candidates. If a smaller fraction of the Mafia than of the townies runs for Mayor, then you've given us a reason not to vote for you.
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On March 13 2008 15:58 goldenkrnboi wrote:......... you forgot me chuiu. please add. kthx. 
You appear to be #25.
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On March 13 2008 16:02 evanthebouncy! wrote:
Wait whaa I'm not in?
I want in!!!
*sigh*
#59.
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Seems to me that linking to each day/night post in the OP is effectively just as good.
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OK, so far fusion, caller, and Empyrean have all said that they will run for mayor no matter what. That means that if they end up mafioso, the Mafia practically has to put them up for election, otherwise it will be clear that they are Mafia (why else wouldn't they run).
IOW, if the Mafia puts up, say, two candidates, and any of these three are in the Mafia, he will be one of the two candidates. Something to keep in mind.
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No. You keep saying that, but it's groundless. You're assuming that the Mafia will put up a higher percentage of its people for mayor than the town will, but there is no reason to think that that is the case.
1) Last game, when Chuiu closed the vote, 7/57 townies were candidates. 0/14 mafia were candidates. (link). That worked out fine for them, by the way.
2) It doesn't make sense for the Mafia to put up more than a couple of candidates:
a) The more people they put up, the harder it is to influence the vote for any one of them.
b) The more people they put up for election, the more people fingers can be pointed at down the line.
Townies, on the other hand, don't have to worry about these things.
3) You don't seem to realize that your reasoning cuts both ways: Sure, if you're right, and the Mafia will put up a higher percentage of candidates than the town, the odds favor voting for you, but if you're wrong, and the town will put up a higher percentage of candidates than the Mafia, the odds favor voting for someone other than you.
4) In any case, none of that is what I was saying in my above post. I said this: on that 1/7 chance that you are Mafia, you've locked yourself into being the Mafia candidate. That makes it slightly more likely, that between you and another candidate, you are the Mafioso. For argument's sake, take two people A and B. Assume the Mafia has at most one candidate. A has declared his candidacy beforehand. If neither is Mafia, that is that. If A is Mafia (1/7 chance), A is the Mafia candidate. If B is Mafia and A is not (~6/49 chance), B is the Mafia candidate. If both are Mafia (~1/49), A is the Mafia candidate, because he's already locked himself in. So everything else being equal, it is more likely that A is the Mafia's candidate.
You are A. You will probably not be Mafia (like any other given person), but everything else being equal, you are slightly more likely to be a Mafia candidate than someone else who is running.
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On March 14 2008 15:45 Ace wrote:
actually no he is right, this is nonsense.
...
What those 3 are saying is that they think they are SMART enough to lead the town, and in the Mafia games I've played and admined thats the kind of strategy I would go for as an innocent townie. A Mafia Mayor or Mafia Pardoner can be cornered if you know they have to be thinking logically.
Maybe you're right, maybe not, but that's not what fusion was saying. He was saying that the odds were better that he would be innocent than any other candidate; hence my post explaining why I think his reasoning there is flawed.
You say that the whole notion of trying to pick an innocent mayor is nonsense...I have to say I'm a dubious about that. Surely a good mafioso could use the mayoral position to his advantage. If nothing else--even if we lynched him, we wouldn't have a mayor, and that's a disadvantage itself. Besides, it's not that easy to co-ordinate detectives when we don't know who is one. What if all the detectives investigated the mayor the first night--that would be a waste of detection, wouldn't it?
As for your final point: "What those 3 are saying is that they think they are SMART enough to lead the town" (the implication being that everyone else is not?) OK, if that argument works for you, fine. I find it somewhat lacking.
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On March 14 2008 15:51 ahrara_ wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2008 14:38 qrs wrote:
OK, so far fusion, caller, and Empyrean have all said that they will run for mayor no matter what. That means that if they end up mafioso, the Mafia practically has to put them up for election, otherwise it will be clear that they are Mafia (why else wouldn't they run).
IOW, if the Mafia puts up, say, two candidates, and any of these three are in the Mafia, he will be one of the two candidates. Something to keep in mind. That doesn't make any logical sense. How would withdrawing their candidacy in any way make them look like scum?
The point is: they have said they are running. They have no reason to change that, unless they answer to someone else.
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On March 14 2008 15:51 Ace wrote:
3 - complete bullshit. There are no odds when it comes to voting for Mayor, especially if the last game is any proof.
Good, you agree with me. fusionsdf was the one who was saying that there were odds, based on certain assumptions of his. I pointed out that under different assumptions, the odds would point in the other direction. Honestly, I don't think that there's a really strong basis for either set of assumptions.
4 - also complete crap. Actually, it's not. Think about it.
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On March 14 2008 16:10 Ace wrote:
ok look to make this even simpler: I'm running for Mayor also.
See? Now even if any of us are Mafia we'll still run for Mayor and you can't figure anything out.
Yeah, that was basically my point. I didn't mean that there is any reason for the Mafia to make someone withdraw their candidacy; only that if there was a reason, they couldn't do it without looking suspicious. All I was saying was: assuming that 1) the Mafia will not cancel someone's candidacy, and 2) the Mafia does not want to put up more than X number of candidates, then 3) a candidate who had locked himself into running beforehand would have slightly higher odds of being Mafia than a candidate who hadn't.
Look, I'm willing to drop the subject: it's only a slight difference.
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Fine, fine. I wasn't the one who brought up odds in the first place. They probably won't be the main factor in anyone's vote, but they could be a factor between two otherwise equal candidates. I can see your point that they don't matter that much in the overall picture.
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On March 14 2008 16:18 ahrara_ wrote:
No qrs. What I'm asking is how you can draw the conclusion that someone is mafia just because they withdraw their candidacy. So if I decide to be a candidate and later withdraw it, you're going to lynch me? I understand the mafia don't want to split the vote, but there are enough legitimate reasons not to want to run for mayor it's not conclusive.
Heh, a lot of cross-posting going on here. All right, your point is taken too, ahrara. There may be legitimate reasons to change your mind about running, and that undermines the conclusion I wanted to draw. Still, if someone said he was running and then changed his mind, I would make a note of it.
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On March 14 2008 16:22 RtS)Night[Mare wrote:
the games hasnt even started and you're already pointing fingers. cmon. lol, isn't that the point of the game?
anyway, it's late here on the east coast: good night
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On March 14 2008 19:55 Empyrean wrote:
You didn't pass Statistics, did you :/
No fucking way is there an increase in chance of candidates being mafia if they decided before-hand that they would run for mayor no matter what. Especially since deciding to run before-hand is determined by the player and mafia status is chosen randomly by Chuiu.
It's not really worth getting into again, but my assumption was that a player's deciding to run beforehand would have an influence on the Mafia's decisions afterward (if that player was assigned to be Mafia). IOW, not that there is an increase in the chance of him being Mafia, but that there is a decrease in the chance of other Mafia running. If you don't agree, OK.
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On March 18 2008 18:50 Ace wrote:
ugh ok you people are really either acting slightly on drugs or something.
HOW does Araav knowing programming languages benefit us?
Seriously ask yourself that.
I know C/C++, Java, and Assembly but that really won't help me find Mafia members now will it?
Well, keeping track of the profiles, etc. does benefit us, but more to the point, he bothered to do it. If he was Mafia, that would be a questionable move: who knows how long it would take for us to get the information together otherwise? Therefore I think that araav's using his programming skills to help the town is an indication that he is a towny.
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All of this is irrelevant. The detectives can investigate the mayor whoever he turns out to be. It doesn't matter whether you call it part of your platform. If you are campaigning for mayor, tell us what you will do. How will you use double lynches, for instance?
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On March 19 2008 00:29 Ghar wrote:Show nested quote +Well, keeping track of the profiles, etc. does benefit us, but more to the point, he bothered to do it. If he was Mafia, that would be a questionable move: who knows how long it would take for us to get the information together otherwise? Therefore I think that araav's using his programming skills to help the town is an indication that he is a towny. At the consequence of what? Becoming mayor. There is nothing right now that can make anyone less suspicious than another. He's not guaranteed to become mayor. You're right, it doesn't prove he's a towny--we can play the double-feint game forever--but it's still something. At the end of the day, the Mafia doesn't want the list up, and if they can get away with no one posting it, they would prefer that.
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On March 19 2008 00:45 Ace wrote:
The Bodyguard Plan...
Now, that sounds like a good plan. Let me go you one better (unless this is what you meant): after the bodyguards are confirmed, let the mayor release one of their names publically. If it's a lie, the other bodyguards can call it. Now we have a guaranteed towny and all the detectives, etc. can PM their roles to him. In turn, he can forward them to the other bodyguards, so that even if the Mafia kills him, there will still be townies who know the important roles and can co-ordinate.
I'll consider switching my vote to you, but it doesn't matter that much. We can follow your plan whether or not you are the mayor.
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On March 19 2008 01:35 BWdero wrote:
Araav has a conservative double lynch platform. Something I find counterproductive. We should lynch early and often....
Any thoughts on this?
That's the main reason I voted for him (although my impression is that Ghar also wants to conserve double lynches). All things being equal, sure it's better to lynch the Mafia early on, but the most important thing is to use our lynches well, as we have a limited supply of them. That means not using double lynches before we have suspects (and if the last game shows anything, there will be suspects later on).
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Let's worry less about who becomes mayor (since we have very little to go on at this time) and more on what we want the mayor to do. These decisions are for the town to make--
if we can reach a consensus, the mayor should follow our lead.
So far, Ace's bodyguard plan sounds like our best shot at getting the most information on our side with the least cost. Ghar's "detective" propostion has a high cost: we blow half of our detectives' most important ability on the first night. What do we gain for losing this? We know whether or not our mayor is Mafia. But this is not even such valuable information! If he is elected already, there is nothing we can do about losing the double lynches. THE "DETECTIVE PLAN" IS NOT WORTH IT.
Instead, we should move ahead with the bodyguard plan at top speed. As soon as the mayor is elected, he sends out PMs to the bodyguards. They confirm with each other. As soon as they have confirmed, one of them (say, the first alphabetically) reveals himself to the public. Everyone with roles sends them to him, and he passes the information on to the other bodyguards. All of this needs to be done before the first night.
If we move fast enough, we can go ahead and use the detectives like Ghar wants, but only use one of them. If for some reason we do not move fast enough, we have wasted a single night. Still better than wasting 3/8 of our detectives' yes/no questions.
Does anyone disagree that we should follow the bodyguard plan ASAP?
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The most important thing we can do, IMHO, is co-ordinate. We have multiple special roles, and we can't afford to have them duplicate their efforts. That's why we need to find a confirmed towny as early as possible, and I think the bodyguard plan is the best way we know of to do that. My version involves outing one bodyguard, but that's a small price to pay for the ability to co-ordinate.
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On March 19 2008 03:39 Ace wrote:
I agree with some of this randombum. The Bodyguard plan is not the full plan I would use, it's just a start that gets information around and gets the town into a good setting.
Whether or not the BG roles need to be revealed is a different issue and I think it's worth telling at a certain time. In most Mafia games, the town does something called Role Claiming which is a great thing to do. It brings out conflicts because surely Mafia members need to claim SOMETHING.
However, the Mayor + BodyGuards DO have the power to change the voting. Remember, if everyone knows that the plan is being followed and nothing comes out about a guilty mayor, then they must be innocent. And if the innocent Mayor has a committee of innocents, that drops the suspect list down to 122, gets information flowing, and eliminates red herrings in clue posts.
Surely, that is a much better plan than what we have now?
wait, what DO we have now?
Let's discuss what we have now. Like I said, who becomes mayor is less important than what he does. Ace, do you (or anyone else) disagree with me that the best thing to do with the bodyguards is reveal one and let him find out everyone's role?
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Because the bodyguards are the only people that we know to be innocent. How do we find out whether the mayor is Mafia short of wasting half our detectives' yes/no questions?
Once one bodyguard has all the information, he can PM it to the others, who are not known. By the second day, ONE detective can check the mayor, and if he is innocent, he can become the spokesman.
Besides, the one bodyguard can be protected (or fake-protected) by medics.
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Since the leading candidates disagree with me, I will cast my hat into the ring: I am running for mayor. Why am I running? To implement the bodyguard plan with revealing a single bodyguard. Why do that? To coordinate our forces and save our special powers as much as possible. How will you know I'm not Mafia? A single detective will confirm it.
A vote for me is a vote for this plan, plain and simple. There's no other reason that I'm running. If any of the current leaders endorse it, I'll be happy to withdraw from the race and cede any votes I get to them.
Edit: re Ghar's post above mine, to clarify my proposition:
Before the detectives use their powers, I hope to have them organized, so that they do not duplicate their efforts (same goes for medics, etc.) I don't want the detectives to work alone--on the contrary, I want them to work with the one towny they can trust: the bodyguard.
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OK, reiterating my platform and trying to sum things up. Sorry if this is redundant:
1. Why I am running for mayor
I support Ace's bodyguard plan, and all credit to him, but I don't think he is taking it far enough. I want there to be an immediate roleclaim by a single bodyguard (after we verify that no one is being tricky) in order to coordinate everyone's efforts. Since as far as I have seen, no other candidate advocates this, I am running for mayor. If you support my version of the bodyguard plan, vote for me.
2. What I will do as mayor
1. Immediately after taking office I will PM each of the bodyguards with the names of the other bodyguards. They in turn will PM each other with the same information.
2. I will wait a few hours for someone to object. (If I am Mafia and trying to be tricky, one of the bodyguards will object here. If a bodyguard objects, either he or I is Mafia, and all bets are off until the town determines which the case is. If I am a towny, nothing will happen unless a mafioso objects; again, things will have to be put on hold until we determine whether the mayor or the objector is Mafia. [In point of fact, I am a towny.] If no one objects, we can proceed under the assumption that everyone on my list is a legitimate bodyguard.)
All of the above is Ace's plan. The following steps are where I differ and why I am running.
3. I will announce the name of a single bodyguard. Alternately, we could agree that the bodyguard with the first name, alphabetically (or a different criterion) announces himself. In any case, we will now have a guaranteed towny to whom everyone can tell their secrets.
4. Everyone with a role PMs the Bodyguard. He passes the information on to the other bodyguards (but not the mayor, yet.) If anyone is being tricky, the bodyguard will know.
5. Assuming that the Mafia does not interfere with this part, the bodyguard will give instructions to a single detective to investigate me. The other detectives can use their roles in other ways. The bodyguard should co-ordinate this.
6. Once I am cleared, I can become the official spokesman for the innocent townies.
3. Why this plan is our best shot
It allows us to coordinate from the beginning. Without coordination, there is a high likelihood that we will waste our powers of detection, protection, etc. Coordination is the single most important thing we can do.
If the Mafia interfere by making false claims, it slows us down, but also gives us a lead on who is Mafia. With access to all of the detectives, the towny in charge will soon figure out who is lying. The game will proceed with one less mafioso.
4. Objections?
Well, we're revealing a bodyguard. Easy solution, though: let the medics protect him for a night. They have no one better to protect, and the Mafia have no one better to target. If the Mafia kill him anyway, they have wasted a lot of their kills in overcoming the medics. If they do not, we have wasted at best a handful of lucky protections, but we have gained the ability to coordinate, which will save us much more in the long run.
If anyone has other objections, please state them. I don't care whether I'm mayor (except that I know I'm a towny)--I care that the mayor follows this plan. Discuss?
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On March 19 2008 07:11 xDark.Carnivalx wrote:
i think it may be best if empyrean is made pardoner rather than mayor. that way if he IS mafia, then we don't lose the mayor role, though the pardoner is important i'd rather lose that role than the mayor.
The problem is: the pardoner role is not so useful to the town, but it is rather useful to the Mafia.
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On March 19 2008 07:17 Empyrean wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2008 07:15 qrs wrote:On March 19 2008 07:11 xDark.Carnivalx wrote:
i think it may be best if empyrean is made pardoner rather than mayor. that way if he IS mafia, then we don't lose the mayor role, though the pardoner is important i'd rather lose that role than the mayor. The problem is: the pardoner role is not so useful to the town, but it is rather useful to the Mafia. False. If the pardoner pardons someone out of the blue, it'll invite serious suspicion. If I'm mayor, it'll guarantee that the people he pardons are legitimate townies (although I won't really want to waste a detection on confirming that).
What are you saying? That the pardoner can never use his role? And what do you mean "If I'm mayor". I was saying why it would not be good for the town if you were pardoner and Mafia. Read the post I was responding to.
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On March 19 2008 07:21 Empyrean wrote:
No, the pardoner should use the role when he has enough conviction to believe that the town is falsely lynching.
If there were a mafia pardoner who decides to pardon a mafia member without a "good" reason, the town will suspect him anyway, leading to the revelation of another mafia. How would the town know that the person he pardoned was Mafia?
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Can't anyone respond to this post of mine? I don't especially want to be mayor, but I do think that this is the plan the mayor should follow. No one seems to be advocating it or even talking about it. Doesn't anyone agree that coordination from the beginning is the best thing for us?
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On March 19 2008 07:25 MasterOfChaos wrote:
Do bodyguards know they are bodyguards? If no, the bodyguard plan does not work with a mafia major. One other thing to consider is, the terrorist might kill the bodyguards who outs to get the messages from the other roles.
They do know that they are bodyguards: it's a special role like any other. They get a special PM.
As for your second point, a) the medics can protect him (unless the Mafia decide to waste most of their kills on one person) and b) even if he dies, he will pass on the information first, so it won't be wasted.
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On March 19 2008 07:36 MasterOfChaos wrote:
@qrs: I think one detective detective is not enough if there more detectives report than there are really ingame. Also make sure the "few hours" are long enough. Not everybody is always active. I think 20-30 hours should be ok.
If more detectives report than really are in-game, then the liar has to be outed first. Have each "detective" investigate something and see who gives the wrong answer. Costs the town one night, but the mafioso dies as well.
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On March 19 2008 07:39 ahrara_ wrote:
...Ace will coordinate the real detectives
How? This is what I keep asking. We can't coordinate unless the detectives can all trust someone. They can only trust someone if they know he is towny. That means either: we waste 3/8 of the valuable yes/no questions, or the mayor reveals a bodyguard. Ace has said he does not want to reveal a bodyguard immediately, so how will he be able to coordinate the detectives?
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On March 19 2008 07:54 Ace wrote:
Also guys, I don't think we need to reveal a bodyguard. Whoever wins mayor will undoubtedly be checked up on by a Detective or a Jack, and if found Mafia will be turned out ASAP. If things are quiet, we can be sure as heck that they must be innocent.
The Mayor will be the mouthpiece of "the committee" (Bodyguards + Mayor)
The problem with that in a nutshell is that you are forcing all the detectives to use one of their two "is-he-Mafia" questions. (If one does not, how do we know that all of them will not?) Surely it's better to save those questions for when we can use them better, and out a single bodyguard (who can be protected or fake-protected).
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On March 19 2008 08:12 MasterOfChaos wrote:
@qrs:
The role question is imo not that valuable compared to the "how many voted for" question. And they are only expended if a mafia-member claims to be detective, which effectively kills this mafia member. So they are not wasted.
It's a question of supply and demand. They are valuable because they can only be used twice in a game. The "how many voted for" question can be used every night.
They don't need to be expended at all (except for one, to check the mayor). If a mafia-member claims to be detective, he can be found out by all the detectives asking a "how many voted for" question.
Everyone, this is where Ace differs from me. I think we should preserve our "Is he Mafia" questions and risk outing one bodyguard. Ace thinks we should not out any bodyguards and rely on the detectives to prove the mayor innocent, instead wasting 3/8 of the "is he Mafia" questions and possibly a night (if it takes a night for detectives to get the answer). Read my original post for what I think the mayor should do. Vote for me or post in the thread here if you support that proposal. I won't push this issue any more: I've done my best to convince you all, and if I haven't done so, posting more probably won't help.
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On March 19 2008 08:30 Empyrean wrote:
Also, I don't agree with the bodyguard plan qrs posted wholly - if the mayor were mafia, he could have a mafia member "reveal" that he was a bodyguard, and then the mafia would know the player's jobs/plan/etc., as well as waste a significant amount of paramedic protection.
That's why I think that we should investigate any person who claims bodyguard first.
That part of it was covered by Ace's original post: The mayor PMs all of the bodyguards the names of all the bodyguards and announces that he has done so. If a real bodyguard hasn't gotten this PM he announces, and we know that something is wrong. If no one says anything, that means that all the real bodyguards have gotten PMs, and the mayor cannot sneak a Mafia member into the list. (This assumes that we will know the total number of bodyguards, which we should.)
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On March 19 2008 08:57 Kau wrote:
Ace:
About your Bodyguard plan, what stops a mafia mayor from pming each actual bodyguard with a list that is something like:
mafia 1
mafia 2
mafia 3
bodyguard #
Each actual bodyguard would get a pm back from each of the fake mafia-bodyguards and they wouldn't know.
Then once the mayor gets checked by a detective, couldn't there be fake mafia-detectives that state that the mayor is innocent?
Hmm, this seems to be a flaw in the plan.
Edit: @ Ace: He's saying that every bodyguard would get a PM. Their PM would list Mafia members as bodyguards. Each bodyguard's PM would list (the same) fake bodyguards as their colleagues. None of the bodyguards would know the difference.
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On March 19 2008 09:07 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2008 09:04 Empyrean wrote:
Especially since once the real bodyguards complain that they didn't get a PM, other mafia can as well. And if the Mayor is innocent he'd (which would be confirmed by the DTs silence) then those stupid Mafia that tried to geek the Town would be caught when the Mayor never mentions them on his list. If any Mafia member false claims they'd be caught red handed fast because this plan does not use 1 person as the word of trust - it uses several with a self checking scheme. Continue to try and find more holes in it, this is interesting and fun. Ace, he DID find a hole in it: please address it.
All the bodyguards receive PMs.
None of them receive the names of their true colleagues.
None of them know the difference.
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On March 19 2008 09:10 Ghar wrote:
What Ace meant was the real bodyguards would see it strange that they got a PM from Chuiu telling them they're bodyguard, but not from the mayor who might have left them out when PMing the bodyguards about each other.
Ace's plan = Bodyguard gets 2 PMs, 1 from Chuiu, and 1 from the Mayor telling him who the other bodyguards are. The number has to add up, anybody guard that didn't get a PM from the mayor, stands up and speaks out.
You guys aren't understanding Kau's point. The real bodyguards would ALL get PMs from the mafioso mayor. The PMs would be lies, but they would all get them.
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On March 19 2008 09:32 Kau wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2008 09:12 Ace wrote:On March 19 2008 09:04 qrs wrote:
Edit: @ Ace: He's saying that every bodyguard would get a PM. Their PM would list Mafia members as bodyguards. Each bodyguard's PM would list (the same) fake bodyguards as their colleagues. None of the bodyguards would know the difference. They'd still be caught. Ok let's look at like this: Scenario 1: There are 7 bodyguards total. 2 Mafia members "fake" PM the BG's with a Mafia Mayor who also sends out the PM. We will know how many BGs are there when the elections are over. The Mafia can't leave 2 of the real Bodyguards off the list because the 2 that didn't get a PM would speak up. They can't just add an extra 2 to the PM because any BG getting a PM from the Mayor with 9 names obviously means the Mayor is clearly not thinking straight and is fishy. Scenario 2: There are 7 bodyguards total. 2 Mafia members "fake" PM the BG's with an Innocent Mayor who also sends out the PM. The PMs from the Mayor don't match those 2 "fake" PMs. Even better, the names of those 2 fakers never even appear in the Mayor's original PM and they just outted themselves as Mafia for a pathetic chance at confusion. How can the Mafia possibly get away with faking any of it without drawing attention to their members? Ace, I don't see how scenario 1 would happen at all. Unless I don't understand how the game works (which is a definite possibility), this is how I see it using your numbers. What everyone knows: There are 7 bodyguards. Only the mayor knows which 7 people are bodyguards. Now, we assume that the mayor is also mafia, so he can coordinate with other mafia members. Since he knows who each bodyguard is, he will send each of the 7 bodyguards a pm. Each pm will have 7 people in it: 6 mafia and 1 bodyguard. Each bodyguard gets pm'ed back by the mafia members (6 different pm's for each bodyguard) and so they believe there are 7 bodyguards. No bodyguards are left out. Each list sent contains 7 people. Each bodyguard recieves 6 confirmation pm's.
Or even this (Call the bodyguards A-G and the mafia 1-4):
A's PM
A,B,C,D,1,2,3
B's PM
A,B,C,D,1,2,3
C's PM
A,B,C,D,1,2,3
D's PM
A,B,C,D,1,2,3
E's PM
E,F,G,1,2,3,4
F's PM
E,F,G,1,2,3,4
G's PM
E,F,G,1,2,3,4
Only 4 mafia used in that scenario. The bodyguards will never know.
EDIT: looks like I missed a lot of posts while typing that. Will read them now.
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On March 19 2008 10:01 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2008 09:59 qrs wrote:On March 19 2008 09:32 Kau wrote:On March 19 2008 09:12 Ace wrote:On March 19 2008 09:04 qrs wrote:
Edit: @ Ace: He's saying that every bodyguard would get a PM. Their PM would list Mafia members as bodyguards. Each bodyguard's PM would list (the same) fake bodyguards as their colleagues. None of the bodyguards would know the difference. They'd still be caught. Ok let's look at like this: Scenario 1: There are 7 bodyguards total. 2 Mafia members "fake" PM the BG's with a Mafia Mayor who also sends out the PM. We will know how many BGs are there when the elections are over. The Mafia can't leave 2 of the real Bodyguards off the list because the 2 that didn't get a PM would speak up. They can't just add an extra 2 to the PM because any BG getting a PM from the Mayor with 9 names obviously means the Mayor is clearly not thinking straight and is fishy. Scenario 2: There are 7 bodyguards total. 2 Mafia members "fake" PM the BG's with an Innocent Mayor who also sends out the PM. The PMs from the Mayor don't match those 2 "fake" PMs. Even better, the names of those 2 fakers never even appear in the Mayor's original PM and they just outted themselves as Mafia for a pathetic chance at confusion. How can the Mafia possibly get away with faking any of it without drawing attention to their members? Ace, I don't see how scenario 1 would happen at all. Unless I don't understand how the game works (which is a definite possibility), this is how I see it using your numbers. What everyone knows: There are 7 bodyguards. Only the mayor knows which 7 people are bodyguards. Now, we assume that the mayor is also mafia, so he can coordinate with other mafia members. Since he knows who each bodyguard is, he will send each of the 7 bodyguards a pm. Each pm will have 7 people in it: 6 mafia and 1 bodyguard. Each bodyguard gets pm'ed back by the mafia members (6 different pm's for each bodyguard) and so they believe there are 7 bodyguards. No bodyguards are left out. Each list sent contains 7 people. Each bodyguard recieves 6 confirmation pm's. Or even this (Call the bodyguards A-G and the mafia 1-4): A's PMA,B,C,D,1,2,3 B's PMA,B,C,D,1,2,3 C's PMA,B,C,D,1,2,3 D's PMA,B,C,D,1,2,3 E's PME,F,G,1,2,3,4 F's PME,F,G,1,2,3,4 G's PME,F,G,1,2,3,4 Only 4 mafia used in that scenario. The bodyguards will never know. Until E dies and gets revealed as bodyguard, and A-D go wtf. Yes, if E dies by lynching, but that's a big if.
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On March 19 2008 10:07 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2008 10:04 qrs wrote:On March 19 2008 10:01 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On March 19 2008 09:59 qrs wrote:On March 19 2008 09:32 Kau wrote:On March 19 2008 09:12 Ace wrote:On March 19 2008 09:04 qrs wrote:
Edit: @ Ace: He's saying that every bodyguard would get a PM. Their PM would list Mafia members as bodyguards. Each bodyguard's PM would list (the same) fake bodyguards as their colleagues. None of the bodyguards would know the difference. They'd still be caught. Ok let's look at like this: Scenario 1: There are 7 bodyguards total. 2 Mafia members "fake" PM the BG's with a Mafia Mayor who also sends out the PM. We will know how many BGs are there when the elections are over. The Mafia can't leave 2 of the real Bodyguards off the list because the 2 that didn't get a PM would speak up. They can't just add an extra 2 to the PM because any BG getting a PM from the Mayor with 9 names obviously means the Mayor is clearly not thinking straight and is fishy. Scenario 2: There are 7 bodyguards total. 2 Mafia members "fake" PM the BG's with an Innocent Mayor who also sends out the PM. The PMs from the Mayor don't match those 2 "fake" PMs. Even better, the names of those 2 fakers never even appear in the Mayor's original PM and they just outted themselves as Mafia for a pathetic chance at confusion. How can the Mafia possibly get away with faking any of it without drawing attention to their members? Ace, I don't see how scenario 1 would happen at all. Unless I don't understand how the game works (which is a definite possibility), this is how I see it using your numbers. What everyone knows: There are 7 bodyguards. Only the mayor knows which 7 people are bodyguards. Now, we assume that the mayor is also mafia, so he can coordinate with other mafia members. Since he knows who each bodyguard is, he will send each of the 7 bodyguards a pm. Each pm will have 7 people in it: 6 mafia and 1 bodyguard. Each bodyguard gets pm'ed back by the mafia members (6 different pm's for each bodyguard) and so they believe there are 7 bodyguards. No bodyguards are left out. Each list sent contains 7 people. Each bodyguard recieves 6 confirmation pm's. Or even this (Call the bodyguards A-G and the mafia 1-4): A's PMA,B,C,D,1,2,3 B's PMA,B,C,D,1,2,3 C's PMA,B,C,D,1,2,3 D's PMA,B,C,D,1,2,3 E's PME,F,G,1,2,3,4 F's PME,F,G,1,2,3,4 G's PME,F,G,1,2,3,4 Only 4 mafia used in that scenario. The bodyguards will never know. Until E dies and gets revealed as bodyguard, and A-D go wtf. Yes, if E dies by lynching, but that's a big if. Or gets hit by a vigilante, which isn't a big if.
Sure it is. Why would a vigilante hit a random townie? If anything it's more likely that a vigilante or lynch might pick off one of the 4 mafia, but it's hardly guaranteed.
The detectives are a different story. By sacrificing a detective, we will have definite knowledge, but that goes back to Ghar's plan: all the detectives will need to check the mayor.
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On March 19 2008 09:58 CDRdude wrote:After thinking this through, I have come to the conclusion that there is no flaw. + Show Spoiler [Why there is no flaw] +
Okay. In this example, we will have 7 bodyguards, 1 mayor, 20 mafia, and a bunch of other people who aren't important, we can call them townies.
If the mayor is mafia, and is smart, he will do this:
Send a PM to:
Bodyguard 1
Mafia 1
Mafia 2
.
.
.
Mafia 6
As far as the legitimate bodyguard can tell, this is legit. The mafia will obviously claim to be bodyguards, and Bodyguard 1 won't know better.
Send a PM to:
Bodyguard 2
Mafia 1
Mafia 2
.
.
.
Mafia 6
Again, the real bodyguard can't tell the difference.
PM3:
Mafia 1
Mafia 2
.
.
.
Mafia 6
You should be getting the point by now. If you aren't, you probably don't deserve to be mayor.
The mafia mayor can do this a total of seven times, so that each bodyguard receives a PM with 6 other people on it. Each of those people insist that they are bodyguards, the real bodyguards won't know the difference, and no real bodyguard will be left out. Since no real bodyguard will be left out, nobody will stand out to say that they didn't receive a PM.
This can't last forever, but it can do a lot of damage. One of two things will happen; either a bodyguard will stand out, according to qrs' plan. The other (real) bodyguards will recognize him as not being in their group, and they'll cry out. Confusion ensues, but people will soon realize that the mayor is a mafioso. However, this takes a bit of time, and the mafia gets a good bit of damage in. BUT---once the real situation is discovered, mafia's 1-6 lives are forfeit. Net gain for the town. The mafia could avoid some of this by mixing in more bodyguards to the PM's, but even then it's a loss for the mafia, gain for the town.
The other possibility is if no bodyguard stands out (the mayor ignores qrs' plan) and a fake detective proclaims that the mayor is innocent. That's nice. However, that also assumes that no other detective checked on the mayor, which is unlikely to happen. Soon, the truth will come out, and the bodyguards will realize that the others in the message are fakes, and can be lynched/mad hatted/killed during the night/permabanned or whatever. End result: town is ahead. This will be a bit bloody, but about equal numbers of mafia and town will die here, so that's still +town.
How to avoid all the mess: Basically, qrs' plan is needed. A bodyguard has to step forward. All the real bodyguards will know whether or not he was included in the PM to them, so you don't have to confirm anything. Of course, that bodyguard will probably be gunned down during the night, but whatever, sucks for him. Much as I hate to admit it, I believe my plan is flawed. As per Kau's post, a Mafia can identify himself as a bodyguard, and all the bodyguards will believe he is telling the truth. The Bodyguard plan is not failsafe after all. Unless someone comes up with something new, we will have to waste some detective power as Ghar has been saying.
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Well, yeah; in fact, once we all know the Mayor is innocent, everyone with a role can and should PM him. I had thought that the bodyguard plan was a way to improve on that, but it seems that it is not after all.
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On March 19 2008 10:30 Kau wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2008 10:16 qrs wrote:On March 19 2008 09:58 CDRdude wrote:After thinking this through, I have come to the conclusion that there is no flaw. + Show Spoiler [Why there is no flaw] +
Okay. In this example, we will have 7 bodyguards, 1 mayor, 20 mafia, and a bunch of other people who aren't important, we can call them townies.
If the mayor is mafia, and is smart, he will do this:
Send a PM to:
Bodyguard 1
Mafia 1
Mafia 2
.
.
.
Mafia 6
As far as the legitimate bodyguard can tell, this is legit. The mafia will obviously claim to be bodyguards, and Bodyguard 1 won't know better.
Send a PM to:
Bodyguard 2
Mafia 1
Mafia 2
.
.
.
Mafia 6
Again, the real bodyguard can't tell the difference.
PM3:
Mafia 1
Mafia 2
.
.
.
Mafia 6
You should be getting the point by now. If you aren't, you probably don't deserve to be mayor.
The mafia mayor can do this a total of seven times, so that each bodyguard receives a PM with 6 other people on it. Each of those people insist that they are bodyguards, the real bodyguards won't know the difference, and no real bodyguard will be left out. Since no real bodyguard will be left out, nobody will stand out to say that they didn't receive a PM.
This can't last forever, but it can do a lot of damage. One of two things will happen; either a bodyguard will stand out, according to qrs' plan. The other (real) bodyguards will recognize him as not being in their group, and they'll cry out. Confusion ensues, but people will soon realize that the mayor is a mafioso. However, this takes a bit of time, and the mafia gets a good bit of damage in. BUT---once the real situation is discovered, mafia's 1-6 lives are forfeit. Net gain for the town. The mafia could avoid some of this by mixing in more bodyguards to the PM's, but even then it's a loss for the mafia, gain for the town.
The other possibility is if no bodyguard stands out (the mayor ignores qrs' plan) and a fake detective proclaims that the mayor is innocent. That's nice. However, that also assumes that no other detective checked on the mayor, which is unlikely to happen. Soon, the truth will come out, and the bodyguards will realize that the others in the message are fakes, and can be lynched/mad hatted/killed during the night/permabanned or whatever. End result: town is ahead. This will be a bit bloody, but about equal numbers of mafia and town will die here, so that's still +town.
How to avoid all the mess: Basically, qrs' plan is needed. A bodyguard has to step forward. All the real bodyguards will know whether or not he was included in the PM to them, so you don't have to confirm anything. Of course, that bodyguard will probably be gunned down during the night, but whatever, sucks for him. Much as I hate to admit it, I believe my plan is flawed. As per Kau's post, a Mafia can identify himself as a bodyguard, and all the bodyguards will believe he is telling the truth. The Bodyguard plan is not failsafe after all. Unless someone comes up with something new, we will have to waste some detective power as Ghar has been saying. We would only have to lose one detective. Ace said that if the detectives find the mayor is innocent, then they say nothing. If the mayor is mafia, then the detectives speak out. Now in the case the detectives speak out, we would first have to lynch the detective to see if he's an actual detective or mafia. If he's actual detective then we know the mayor is mafia. If he's mafia then we know the mayor is townie. Hmm... Actually, what happens in the case the mayor is mafia, and a mafia-detective points him out along with real detective. Would we have to lynch both to be sure? When I said detective power, I didn't mean just the one detective, but the other 3 wasting one of their "is-he-mafia" questions. But if there's no better way, it's still definitely worth it.
Re your scenario, presumably the Mafia could buy days for their mayor at the rate of one mafioso per day. I don't see more than one detective speaking up at a time--that would be very dangerous for the real detectives.
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On March 19 2008 10:37 goldenkrnboi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2008 10:35 Falcynn wrote:On March 19 2008 10:34 goldenkrnboi wrote:what if the pardoner is mafia?  Then when he pardons someone a vigilante takes that person out the next night. If the person who got pardoned is mafia, then we lynch the pardoner next day. clever. :O I don't think it's clever at all. Even if the pardoner pardons a mafioso it may have been accidental; on the other hand, if he pardons an honest man, we waste a vigilante's kill, and lose the guy anyway. And a smart mafioso will pardon an honest man, knowing this, and still be able to pardon the next mafioso who is up for trial. Basically, the plan sucks (sorry Falcynn, but it's true).
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Show nested quote +On March 19 2008 07:54 ahrara_ wrote:I actually find a lot of his one liners pretty funny. I really don't.
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On March 19 2008 13:00 ShaLLoW[baY] wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2008 12:59 Ace wrote:On March 19 2008 12:57 ahrara_ wrote:
I see clues as largely a means of supporting a suspicion, not the beginning of one. Like I said, if you've been following the thread, there have been people who've done some weird things that warrant suspicions. Nothing for sure, but plenty of starting points not based on clues. This is something that needs constant repeating. You seriously do remind me of Tracil last game. You just don't say "scum" as every second word.
QFT. You have said some things that made sense, Ace, but you have also sounded fairly patronizing in many of your posts. At the end of the day, you haven't actually contributed that much more than anyone else. (I was taken by the bodyguard idea when you posted it, but Kau pointed out the flaw in it [as a standalone method].)
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On March 20 2008 11:01 Mynock wrote:
Bah, another horrible move by Empyrean (assuming he is what he says he is). I was considering the chance that Emp was a townie, in which case what he was doing would have made some sense. First, he could draw the saboteur's ability away from the real roles, second, he might have wasted some of the mafia's killing power or even a suicide bomber.
Now, if he's indeed a townie he's made another crucial mistake, instead of confusing the mafia (and possibly sacrificing himself) he's confusing the town even further. I disagree. If Empyrean hadn't revealed himself, he might have gotten medic protection. They would all die with him when he was blown up--there's no better use for a suicide bomber.
Meanwhile, not much to say about the mayoral elections except if no detective doesn't reveal Ace as Mafia after a reasonable amount of time, everyone with a role should PM it to Ace. Not just detectives: vigilantes, hatters, jacks, medics. Coordination is important to avoid duplication of efforts.
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On March 20 2008 12:52 Yogurt wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2008 12:35 fusionsdf wrote:
lynching empyrean is the smartest thing to do
at best hes a townie
at worst hes mafia
in either way he creates confusion as long as he is alive you mean the other way around right? at worst he's a townie? unless you meant it that way...! seriously though,i think the lynch would be better used on one of the quieter players, as we learned from last game
At best he's a townie sounds right to me.
But I agree with Yogurt: lynch someone who hasn't said a word. Reason: lying low benefits the Mafia if they can do it. If we lynch the quiet people (when there's no better suspect), we encourage people to speak, which can only be good in the long run.
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On March 20 2008 13:26 Ace wrote:
{88}iNcontroL Reason?
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On March 20 2008 13:29 Ace wrote:
This was the first lynch plan:
If anyone remember that speed game that got messed with the Starcraft themes, I was the one who proposed the "we lynch anyone that doesn't talk". I don't think you can take credit for the idea: Tracil was pushing it from the beginning of the first game. But I agree that it's a good way to lynch when there is very little to go on.
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LOL. Maybe it wasn't such a great plan after all.
On March 20 2008 13:37 CDRdude wrote:
Although if he really was inactive, it isn't a big deal.
There's no way to tell if he really was inactive. The game hadn't really started.
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On March 20 2008 13:41 Kau wrote:
Ah well, it was hit or miss, what can you do...
On March 20 2008 13:45 Queasy wrote:
Guys, he can't really be sure of who is Mafia. Who else could he hit? It's all stabs in the dark.
There is one thing that he could have done: Lynch a known townie (like Empyrean). 100% odds of killing a plain townie vs. ~16% odds of hitting a Mafia and ~20% odds of hitting a special role. Maybe that would have been a better way to play it, in retrospect.
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On March 20 2008 13:45 Meta wrote:
it really doesn't matter, inc was inactive.
You really don't know that.
@Kau, see my post above for who he could have lynched.
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Look, you can't call someone inactive for not posting in the thread the first day. Nothing had happened: virtually no clues, no kills. Not much reason for activity. True he didn't vote, but maybe he didn't care who the mayor was. TBH, it doesn't matter that much who the mayor is as long as he is not Mafia, and he plays remotely reasonably.
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On March 20 2008 13:52 Kau wrote:
qrs
How do we know he isn't lying "again" to save himself?
If he's lying, he's either Mafia, or a very shady towny.
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On March 20 2008 13:53 Meta wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2008 13:49 qrs wrote:On March 20 2008 13:45 Meta wrote:
it really doesn't matter, inc was inactive. You really don't know that.@Kau, see my post above for who he could have lynched. he didn't post, he didn't vote, that means he was going to be kicked from the game anyways. so yes i do know that
Maybe you're right. Chuiu didn't make the rules clear on that point. Chuiu, if you're reading, could you clarify? What do you do if someone misses a vote?
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On March 20 2008 14:01 Showtime! wrote:
I'm...drunk.
I think we have the explanation, guys. Nothing more to talk about.
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Showtime!, have you seen this thread yet? It might be a better locale for your posting spree.
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On March 20 2008 14:11 Ace wrote:
If you're still complaining about Incontrol being lynched, and you have a better idea then prove it.
I'm not going to lynch anyone that voted because that would eliminate a somewhat active player.
Yes, someone did have a better idea: On March 18 2008 16:31 araav wrote:Here we go! Voting araav for mayor3. If I happen to be pardoner, and not mayor (get the second highest votes), will pardon the first day lynches, unless the case is really VERY logical. Oh well, hindsight is 20/20.
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On March 20 2008 14:12 ShaLLoW[baY] wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2008 14:10 Showtime! wrote:
ShaLLoW are you mad because I took over your role from the last game?
I think someone needs a lollipop.
Too bad I don't have any special powers.
Oh, wait: to annoy! Does this mean that you're the mafioso shitstirrer? Because I'm very inclined to believe it, and I think that your sudden switch to posting bullshit while claiming to be drunk is very suspicious. Shallow, we should get one thing clear: you're the crapstirrer. You did it all last game, you're doing it again this game. (Not that it bothers me, but he who accuses...)
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Show nested quote +On March 20 2008 14:23 ShaLLoW[baY] wrote:On March 20 2008 14:21 qrs wrote:On March 20 2008 14:12 ShaLLoW[baY] wrote:On March 20 2008 14:10 Showtime! wrote:
ShaLLoW are you mad because I took over your role from the last game?
I think someone needs a lollipop.
Too bad I don't have any special powers.
Oh, wait: to annoy! Does this mean that you're the mafioso shitstirrer? Because I'm very inclined to believe it, and I think that your sudden switch to posting bullshit while claiming to be drunk is very suspicious. Shallow, we should get one thing clear: you're the crapstirrer. You did it all last game, you're doing it again this game. (Not that it bothers me, but he who accuses...) ... did you READ THE POST OF HIS I QUOTED? OR THE ONE BEFORE IT ABOUT INCONTROL? Have you read any of this guys posts? Your sudden jump to believe his story about being drunk, while he's still capable of posting a vastly contrasting, logical post, is a bit iffy. Last game, I was mafia. It was my prerogative.
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On March 20 2008 14:27 Ace wrote:
The ONLY reason people are upset is because Inc turned out to be blue instead of green. I say we just move on with the plan and stop trying to be disgruntled. It's only adding confusion and a bad start. This is the last time I'm addressing this. Look, in hindsight, I think it's clear that araav had the better plan. There are a lot of special town roles in this Mafia game. In fact, there are more special town roles than Mafia roles (without counting bodyguards). That being the case, it probably would have been smarter not to lynch (if you have that option) or to pardon your lynch (if you don't) rather than risk the 1 in 5 chance of killing a valuable towny. By the second day, you should hopefully have more information about the roleplayers, so that would no longer be an issue.
But it's water under the bridge now.
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Wait--PMs are already coming in? That's not good. We need to wait at least some hours before we can be reasonably sure that a detective has investigated the mayor.
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On March 20 2008 15:15 aZnvaLiaNce wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2008 15:14 rpf wrote:
Ah, that makes sense.
So what happens if Ace is found to be a member of the mafia? Doesn't that really screw the townies over? I believe a lot of us have already discussed this already. Having a mafia mayor can still benefit the town to a certain extent. um...how?
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A mafia mayor will never act in the best interests of the town. He will always act in the best interests of the mafia. If the best interests of the mafia are to keep their man alive and let the townies do a double lynch or something, he will do that. If the best interests of the mafia are to let the townies kill him, he will do that. This seems obvious to me.
edit: Ace does have an interesting point about playing some sort of weird psychological game, letting him vote and double guessing his moves, but honestly, I don't think too much info can be gleaned from that. He can just abstain.
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On March 20 2008 15:28 aZnvaLiaNce wrote:
A mayor in general abstaining to vote does more harm than good, whether or not he's mafia or not.
You're changing the subject. We were talking about known mafia mayors.
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Araav, it would be the same situation no matter who was elected mayor. We can't be sure that anyone is not Mafia. If the mayor is a mafioso, I'd rather lose a detective than have him go undetected: a mafioso mayor can do a lot of a damage. So even on the "die" side, I think losing the detective is the least of all evils. On the "do" side, of course, if the mayor is a townie we gain a ton by having someone we know is a townie, and protected.
If Ace turns out to be a mafioso, we'll just have to move on without our double lynches--we haven't lost the game yet.
As for lynching InControl, I've come to the conclusion that it was a bad decision to take the risk (since we have such a high percentage of role players), but Ace did have a logical reason for the lynch (better than FakeSteve's last game).
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On March 21 2008 00:07 Naib wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2008 00:03 fusionsdf wrote:
so......
we are lynching quiet people to force them to post?
Do you realize how useless a strategy that is?
No, no, no and again a NO! That is not a strategy! That is a strategy for the first lynch only and nothing else. I feel I explained it quite well, feel free to read it all again (Ace can back it up of course, I bet he can form better arguments seeing English is his first language, and not mine )
To be honest, if it's a strategy at all, it can't be a strategy for the first lynch only. The whole point of it is to make people afraid to lurk, but if they know that there is no chance of their getting lynched for lurking after the first day, why would they care what the first-day lynch was? If this is a strategy, it has to be at least a part of the strategy for all lynches: i.e., everything else being equal, we lynch the quiet one.
Not much we can do about InControl being dead, now. By the next lynch, we will hopefully have more information.
Wait--that gives me an idea for a role in future games!
Necromancer: The necromancer has the ability, once every ten turns, to bring one of the dead back to life. A clue will be left behind pointing to his identity.
Or something like that.
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On March 21 2008 00:18 Naib wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2008 00:11 fusionsdf wrote:On March 21 2008 00:07 Naib wrote:On March 21 2008 00:03 fusionsdf wrote:
so......
we are lynching quiet people to force them to post?
Do you realize how useless a strategy that is?
No, no, no and again a NO! That is not a strategy! That is a strategy for the first lynch only and nothing else. I feel I explained it quite well, feel free to read it all again (Ace can back it up of course, I bet he can form better arguments seeing English is his first language, and not mine ) It doesnt matter what lynching it is its still stupid especially when you have a gift like empyrean A "gift" oh yeah. Definitely. I'd really suggest you to read through the thread again. I think you're misunderstanding fusion. He means that Empyrean was a gift of a sacrifice: someone who was practically guaranteed not to be a role-player.
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On March 21 2008 00:24 Kau wrote:
If Ace really was mafia, why would he be roleblocked? That doesn't benefit them at all since we'll know whether or not he's mafia soon enough.
Now if he was mafia and is just saying that he's roleblocked when he really isn't, then that just puts him at higher risk when someone else is actually roleblocked.
That's not a proof: the roleblocker doesn't even have to use his role tonight. No point in trying to deduce Ace's orientation: we'll find out soon enough one way or the other.
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just an example. I don't know what the best way to balance a role like that would be.
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On March 21 2008 00:42 Scorch wrote:I have a question though: what hinders a Mafia from claiming to be a Detective who has found Ace to be a Towny, and contacting him to infiltrate / gain access to the resistance group? The fraud would only leak out if ALL other "real" Detectives are in contact with Ace too. There would then be five Detectives, one of which is an impostor. But who?
Definitely all real detectives (and all other roles) should be in contact with Ace as soon as enough time has passed to be reasonably sure that he is a towny. (Certainly by the next day. Of course, detectives can find out earlier.)
As for how to find out the impostor, it's simple--just get a few detectives to ask the same question that night (debatable whether to have them all ask the same question or split them up 3/2). If one person gives the wrong answer, he's Mafia. Of course, a mafioso can probably give the right answers most of the time: but he doesn't want to. He'll never know how many other detectives you are asking the same question at any time. If he is too cautious in playing his role, he might end up being an asset to the town in spite of himself.
In fact, it's probably a good idea to check detectives against each other even if four or less report, just on the chance that a detective is inactive and a mafioso has bluffed.
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Read the OP, Op. (short answer: no.)
edit: or maybe you meant can a suicide bomber kill paramedics protecting him?, which--maybe, but why would a medic protect the mayor? Detectives don't protect people.
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It's in the original post, like most of the details about special roles.
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Wow, relax, ~OpZ~. I wasn't attacking you; I was just pointing you to where the information could be found. The last edit to the OP was yesterday.
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On March 21 2008 03:15 Falcynn wrote:
So if we're just plain green townies you still want us to confirm with you?
What would be the point of that? Unless you think that the Mafia will obligingly confirm as Mafia instead of town.
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On March 21 2008 03:20 Ace wrote:Yes even if you are a plain vanilla townie I want you to PM me. It'll help me a lot
You're joking, right?
In case you aren't: how could it possibly help you?
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Here's how I see it: everyone with a role PM should send it in to you, absolutely. Mafia has to decide whether to fake claim a role or not. Everyone else: you may as well assume they are green. If a mafioso isn't faking a claim to be blue, he will claim green as a matter of course, so why bother sending in the PMs? It's just a waste of everyone's time.
IOW, let's just save some time and agree that no PM = claim to be a towny.
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On March 21 2008 03:41 SoleSteeler wrote:
In the last game, were the people who were mafia posting frequently?
some were, some weren't
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On March 21 2008 03:49 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2008 03:42 qrs wrote:
IOW, let's just save some time and agree that no PM = claim to be a towny. this idea makes no sense. No PM also means Mafia members just never have to worry about contacting me, and then they also know that not every townie has PM'd me so it's easier for them to just lay low and not get caught lying. If everyone has to PM me, eventually I'll catch some role clashes and some lies. It makes plenty of sense. A PM that says "Hi I'm townie", if everyone has to send it, tells you nothing more than no PM would. The starting assumption for everyone is that they are townie.
Here, instead of a PM, I'll just tell you in the thread. I am a vanilla townie. (honestly, did that really tell you anything?)
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On March 21 2008 04:25 Fishball wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2008 04:06 qrs wrote:On March 21 2008 03:49 Ace wrote:On March 21 2008 03:42 qrs wrote:
IOW, let's just save some time and agree that no PM = claim to be a towny. this idea makes no sense. No PM also means Mafia members just never have to worry about contacting me, and then they also know that not every townie has PM'd me so it's easier for them to just lay low and not get caught lying. If everyone has to PM me, eventually I'll catch some role clashes and some lies. It makes plenty of sense. A PM that says "Hi I'm townie", if everyone has to send it, tells you nothing more than no PM would. The starting assumption for everyone is that they are townie. Here, instead of a PM, I'll just tell you in the thread. I am a vanilla townie. (honestly, did that really tell you anything?) I call mafia Townies can't be that dumb, right?!
It's not that dumb. Assuming that all blues (+ fake-blues) send in their roles as they are supposed to, it makes absolutely no difference whether the rest of us officially declare townie or not. No one's going to declare Mafia, and anyone who was going to declare roleplayer should have done that.
But on second thought, I concede that if we are afraid that some blues will stay low for whatever reason (although they shouldn't) and we are afraid of lynching them by mistake then the "I am townie" statement does do something: it tells the mayor "I am not an inactive blue".
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On March 21 2008 06:18 Kau wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2008 05:10 qrs wrote:
It's not that dumb. Assuming that all blues (+ fake-blues) send in their roles as they are supposed to, it makes absolutely no difference whether the rest of us officially declare townie or not. No one's going to declare Mafia, and anyone who was going to declare roleplayer should have done that.
But on second thought, I concede that if we are afraid that some blues will stay low for whatever reason (although they shouldn't) and we are afraid of lynching them by mistake then the "I am townie" statement does do something: it tells the mayor "I am not an inactive blue". It does make a difference if townies have to pm because it forces the mafia to pm too, because ideally, every townie and every blue would have pm'ed Ace, so the only ones who have not pm'ed would be mafia. If we had it so that no townie had to pm, then mafia can just do nothing.
And this way, Mafia have to PM that they are townies. And that's exactly the same as doing nothing in the original scenario. They don't have to reveal anything about themselves, they don't have to contradict themselves, all they have to do is say something that is implicit from the very fact that they are playing the game. This is not an "exploit".
The one slight reason I can see for having green townies PM is to eliminate the possibility that they are inactive blues. If everyone is playing well, this shouldn't be necessary (because all blues should respond) but, OK, it's possible that not all blues are paying attention, so it doesn't hurt to PM Ace--more information is not bad.
In any case, I've already said in the thread that I'm a vanilla townie. (If I'm actually mafia, the Mafia knows it and if I'm actually a roleplayer, Ace knows it.)
PS-French Toast has just jumped to the top of my suspicion list.
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The clue for Ghar seems pretty incriminating, but I assume that Ace will have a detective confirm it with Chuiu.
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On March 23 2008 21:45 BWdero wrote:Show nested quote +On March 23 2008 21:25 Plexa wrote:if the player has no direct influence on the hits (ie not associated with the hits) then it just looks worse for ghar  I dont know, I assumed that mafia just sent in a list. You cant have mafia individually hit someone since there are 20 mafia and only 9 kills.
Sure you can, although the Mafia would still need to coordinate. If 2 Mafia hit someone he dies; if only one hits him, he lives. (The cap of 9 could be first come first served.) I think it was Fen who suggested a system like that after last game, but I don't recall Chuiu saying that he had decided to go with it.
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Hmm, I'm not sure about this. It's to the town's benefit to lynch mafiosi as early as possible, to bring down the kill count. I was waiting for Ace to investigate Ghar, who seemed like a pretty sure thing based on the head clue, but it sounds like he isn't planning to investigate him this turn.
I'm still undecided about who to vote for. There's also the fact that I may not log in again before the vote is closed (traveling). I am voting Ghar for now; if Ace makes a good case for lynching someone else (or even says that he is 95% certain of someone else) and I have time to switch, I will switch my vote. Ace: the earlier you can tell us who to vote for, the better.
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On March 24 2008 06:21 Ace wrote:
well then how about this.
Everyone vote for Mandalor to be lynched.
How sure are you of him?
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FWIW, I agree with Mr. Pink on this one. 48 hours a day is 48 hours a day--a rule is a rule. Why should the rules be bent to help the town? Some people are treating this like the town is somehow the "good" team that "should" win, but that's ridiculous. (And if you think a post like this is evidence that I'm Mafia, that's ridiculous as well.)
Besides, personally, I'd prefer to see the game move along instead of dragging out.
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Why keep responding to HeRoS? Whether he's Mafia or town, he's just cluttering up the thread.
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On March 25 2008 00:10 Ace wrote:
First Update
Out of the 58 people that voted to lynch Mandalor, 10 are Mafia
More or less the same as the proportion of mafiosi in the town as a whole.
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On March 25 2008 01:20 Ace wrote:
Also, I find it very strange that one of the Mayoral candidates, araav has been inactive so much.
I don't find that strange. He didn't get elected: it makes sense that he would lose some interest. (happened in the first game too.) He's still been posting occasionally, and continuing to contribute by updating his list of profile info.
Frankly, there's not that always that much to say.
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On March 25 2008 01:33 ZBiR wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2008 01:18 Ace wrote:UpdateI got some interesting information about centering around Mandalor's death. Check this out:
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Mandalor Germany. March 24 2008 03:15. Posts 1164 PM Profile Blog Quote
I abstain as well.
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Ace United States. March 24 2008 06:21. Posts 1938 PM Profile Quote
well then how about this.
Everyone vote for Mandalor to be lynched.
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I revealed this at 6:21 on March 24th. Smurfingchobo already voted for Mandalor on the 23rd. If he's mafia, then the mafia's game plan might be to vote against each other.
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smurfingchobo March 23 2008 20:45. Posts 527 PM Profile Quote
I change my vote from abstain to Mandalor.
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I thought that was an interesting vote (a day before) because no one had mentioned him as a suspect, and I couldn't find any clues leading to him.
To sum up, basically smurfingchobo voted on Mandalor way before I even brought him up. This is odd because even when we knew Mandalor was Mafia, we couldn't even find a single clue that implicated him. What do you guys think about this? Someone did some nice work Notice that he edited that original vote so he was voting differently on 23.03.08, unless you've seen his original post it's not a proof (still, it's quite suspicious) Yes: his own words after the final vote-count (but before Ace accused him):
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On March 25 2008 01:33 Ace wrote:
It's suspicious to me because from the gate he was against me getting Mayor. Go look back at his past posts and check them out.
I have a notepad file of initial impressions of everyone in the game, here is the entry for araav:
araav - ran for mayor on ridiculous pretenses I didn't share your initial impressions (I voted for him, actually): I thought that he presented a reasonable platform (although not as extensive as yours), and I thought and still think that his argument that he was contributing to the town was not a ridiculous pretense. It doesn't prove he is a townie, but it goes some way towards that. The mafia would have to think long and hard before letting a member go ahead with posting something that could help link clues to people, just on the chance that it might help him get elected.
You're entitled to your suspicions, of course.
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On March 25 2008 01:45 Ace wrote:
Honestly, what was araav offering that made any kind of sense?
being able to write a script doesn't help you win Mafia games.
In these games, clues can help find mafiosi and having a master list of profiles and relevant info seems like it should be very helpful in matching the clues with people. Put it this way: maybe I'm overrating it, but if I was Mafia, I would prefer not to have a master list like that out there. If araav hadn't done it? Maybe someone else would have. Maybe not.
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We can argue about how suspicious araav is (I don't suspect him at all; Ace does), but we don't have anything like the severed-head clue pointing to him at the moment. If araav is the best we have, I will be voting for Ghar in the next lynch. Might be worth setting a detective on the severed-head clue.
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On March 25 2008 02:10 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2008 01:48 qrs wrote:On March 25 2008 01:45 Ace wrote:
Honestly, what was araav offering that made any kind of sense?
being able to write a script doesn't help you win Mafia games. In these games, clues can help find mafiosi and having a master list of profiles and relevant info seems like it should be very helpful in matching the clues with people. Put it this way: maybe I'm overrating it, but if I was Mafia, I would prefer not to have a master list like that out there. If araav hadn't done it? Maybe someone else would have. Maybe not. Thats the thing, several people have already done it. It would have been done so how does that skill help to catch Mafia?
Who else has already done it? I don't even know what you mean by that: if araav was the first to produce the list, anyone who came after only had to copy his list.
On a different subject: TO ALL VIGILANTES AND/OR ACE: re vigilante strategy, I'd like to suggest that we not use up vigilante kills until we have more suspects than we can deal with through lynches. For instance, at the moment, Ghar seems like a very strong suspect, but after him, the evidence on everyone else who has been brought up is a lot weaker. It might seem attractive for a vigilante to get a sure kill by killing Ghar tonight, but if the day comes, and we haven't yet figured out a sure lynch (or two) and waste the lynch on a townie, the vig kill will essentially have been wasted. As the game goes on and we/Ace figure more things out, we will probably have more suspects (as in the first game) than we can handle at one time, and then the vig kills will come in handy. When there's a line for the first cash register, that's when it's time to open the second.
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On March 25 2008 04:03 Ace wrote:
Update
This is the plan for the next Day (the person who came up with this idea will remain anonymous, i just improved on it a bit).
In addition to that plan, we'll also be splitting the Mandalor Vote. The top 29(excluding me) will vote on Suspect#1 and the bottom 29 will vote on Suspect#2. These suspects will be revealed after tonight. Just like above, anyone who doesn't follow the plan we have no choice but to cast suspicion on them.
Double count the #s because my counting may be off. Here's the list:
Suspect#1 -29
Showtime!
ShaLLoW[baY]
qrs
clazziquai
ahrara_
Falcynn
ZBiR
unsoundlogic
BWdero
GeneralStan
Scorch
nemY
MidnightGladius
decafchicken
L
Empyrean
Eti307
suresh0t
randombum
Lysithea
French_Toast
New104
Kau
Artanis[Xp]
Ninja4ever.
Naib
JeeJee
Hittegods
SoleSteeler
Suspect#2 -29
Romance_us
Plexa
LucasWoJ
Caller
Fishball
RtS)Night[Mare
Jimtudor
GranDim
Lenwe
Alethios
NatsuTerran
0cz3c
Last Romantic
zeks
Pangolin
SpiritoftheTuna
Unforgiven_ve
Energies
BloodyC0bbler
iNfuNdiBuLuM
SoMuchBetter
Camlito
bumatlarge
fanatacist
ieatkids5
~OpZ~
SonuvBob
Siefu
butidigress
Any questions, comments or concerns let them be known.
Once again, if you go against this plan we have no choice but to cast suspicions on you. Comment/concern: Sounds like a plan, but it should not come at the expense of lynching a mafioso tomorrow. Right now, as far as I'm concerned, Ghar is the prime suspect, at least until a detective tells us that the severed head did not point to him. If Ghar is suspect #1 or suspect #2, or if there is a stronger case pointing to them than to Ghar, I'll go along with the vote.
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On March 25 2008 06:13 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2008 06:07 qrs wrote:On March 25 2008 04:03 Ace wrote:
Update
This is the plan for the next Day (the person who came up with this idea will remain anonymous, i just improved on it a bit).
In addition to that plan, we'll also be splitting the Mandalor Vote. The top 29(excluding me) will vote on Suspect#1 and the bottom 29 will vote on Suspect#2. These suspects will be revealed after tonight. Just like above, anyone who doesn't follow the plan we have no choice but to cast suspicion on them.
Double count the #s because my counting may be off. Here's the list:
Suspect#1 -29
Showtime!
ShaLLoW[baY]
qrs
clazziquai
ahrara_
Falcynn
ZBiR
unsoundlogic
BWdero
GeneralStan
Scorch
nemY
MidnightGladius
decafchicken
L
Empyrean
Eti307
suresh0t
randombum
Lysithea
French_Toast
New104
Kau
Artanis[Xp]
Ninja4ever.
Naib
JeeJee
Hittegods
SoleSteeler
Suspect#2 -29
Romance_us
Plexa
LucasWoJ
Caller
Fishball
RtS)Night[Mare
Jimtudor
GranDim
Lenwe
Alethios
NatsuTerran
0cz3c
Last Romantic
zeks
Pangolin
SpiritoftheTuna
Unforgiven_ve
Energies
BloodyC0bbler
iNfuNdiBuLuM
SoMuchBetter
Camlito
bumatlarge
fanatacist
ieatkids5
~OpZ~
SonuvBob
Siefu
butidigress
Any questions, comments or concerns let them be known.
Once again, if you go against this plan we have no choice but to cast suspicions on you. Comment/concern: Sounds like a plan, but it should not come at the expense of lynching a mafioso tomorrow. Right now, as far as I'm concerned, Ghar is the prime suspect, at least until a detective tells us that the severed head did not point to him. If Ghar is suspect #1 or suspect #2, or if there is a stronger case pointing to them than to Ghar, I'll go along with the vote. The reason why is because investigating Ghar whether he is innocent or not right now only gets us 1 possible Mafia, whereas this method gets us 11. Sure, but we can do both: simply make Ghar either Suspect #1 or Suspect #2 and proceed with the plan. Unless you have better suspects by the time tomorrow comes, I can't see a reason not to do that.
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On March 25 2008 06:44 RtS)Night[Mare wrote:
that is if a vigi doesnt frag him in the night Yeah. I don't think one should.Show nested quote +On March 25 2008 03:36 qrs wrote:
On a different subject: TO ALL VIGILANTES AND/OR ACE: re vigilante strategy, I'd like to suggest that we not use up vigilante kills until we have more suspects than we can deal with through lynches. For instance, at the moment, Ghar seems like a very strong suspect, but after him, the evidence on everyone else who has been brought up is a lot weaker. It might seem attractive for a vigilante to get a sure kill by killing Ghar tonight, but if the day comes, and we haven't yet figured out a sure lynch (or two) and waste the lynch on a townie, the vig kill will essentially have been wasted. As the game goes on and we/Ace figure more things out, we will probably have more suspects (as in the first game) than we can handle at one time, and then the vig kills will come in handy. When there's a line for the first cash register, that's when it's time to open the second.
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On March 25 2008 08:10 Alethios wrote:
I've said it before, i'll say it again... the mad hatter role seems like such a liability.
It's the whole "If I die, lynch x" thing, roled up into one action. Problem is, by killing the person when they are saying that (assuming x isn't mafia), they effectively kill two people instead of one.
Flawed role.
No more flawed than a vigilante's role. No more flawed than town's ability to lynch, for that matter. Of course, if you plant the bombs before you're sure someone is Mafia, you risk killing a townie, the same way that vigilantes risk killing townies and the town risks lynching townies. As long as the mad hatter role is used well, it's just another way of killing Mafia. That can't be bad for the town.
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On March 25 2008 10:02 Caller wrote:
keep in mind that the mafia can very easily remove bodyguards quickly
at that stage if ace becomes vulnurable it may be necessary to reestablish a chain of command otherwise we'll panic and start pointing fingers, and then the inevitable bandwagoning will happen...
More important to find a confirmed townie to whom Ace can pass his list of special roles. But that's a long way off for now.
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On March 25 2008 13:00 Ace wrote:
I'm almost certain that wurm is Mafia for now
Do you have any reason besides him not PMing his role? You can't have gotten PMs from all the green townies. I agree that abstaining instead of voting Mandalor (if wurm did that after you posted to vote for Mandalor) is slightly suspicious, but I don't see almost-certainty.
On another subject: a comment about the latest detective plan. Instead of spending a detection on the 7 people who voted for Ghar (since only 1/7 are mafia--less than the overall percentage, and only 1 mafioso total), have you considered going after the larger pool of people instead? Put it differently: you mentioned two groups: a group of 58 with 10 mafiosi (1/5.8) and a group of 7 containing 1 mafioso (1/7). You neglected the final group: a group of 58 with 9 mafiosi (1/6.4). Why not get to work on this group? We divide them in half (more or less) every turn, so the sooner we start on the large groups, the better.
Edit: The best of luck to you, Chuiu. May your ailment soon pass.
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Not sure if I want to go along with lynching Wurm, when we have a much stronger suspect in Ghar. The question is: is it worth a single investigation to possibly preserve a medic? The evidence against wurm seems very circumstantial. Ace, I'll PM you when I have time.
I don't plan to follow our mayor blindly. Even if he did win the game, it wouldn't be very fun for me, if I was just his mindless drone. That doesn't mean I'll oppose him just for the sake of it--I'm perfectly willing to go along with the plan and vote for suspect #1 if there's a good case for the one we end up lynching, but atm, I'm not convinced that it's time to lynch wurm.
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On March 25 2008 22:15 Showtime! wrote:
No, it doesn't take away from the game because as a regular townie you can still post... Yes, I've seen your posts...
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One more thought about the detective plan: We only need one detective to split a group. E.g., if 4 people in half #1 are mafiosi, 6 people in half #2 must be mafiosi. Technically, there's no reason that both halves have to vote unanimously.
Therefore, we can speed things up by going a few steps at a time: e.g., first 29 people vote for suspect #1, second 15 people vote for suspect #2. If we have more detectives, we can go on: third 7 people vote for suspect #3. This way we maximize our detective power.
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On March 25 2008 22:30 Plexa wrote:
ShadowDrgn
Rather strong clue connection here and considering the fact he is also on the Ghar list (1/7 remember?) i strongly believe this is your mafia man If anything, the Ghar list reduces his chance of being mafia. Chance of anyone not on the Ghar list being Mafia is ~1/6.1. The out-of-nowhere clue I like better for Ninja. The shotgun clue may be a good one, though.
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On March 26 2008 01:17 Ace wrote:
Read the scenario that happened - if case 2 happened where the player was attacked twice wouldn't it make even MORE sense for wurm to contact me and let me know that he protected a high priority target and hey - maybe I should ask him and the other medic to protect them again just in case?
Wurm would only know that he protected someone, not how many people did: On March 23 2008 04:32 Chuiu wrote:If someone gets hit with more than one hit and saved they'll know. Each medic will only know they saved them from one hit though and won't know if someone else saved them also.
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^Your point being? Ace was saying that wurm (the supposed medic) should have said something if 2 people protected the target.
edit: d'oh, you're right. Yeah, Ace should know if 2 people protected Falcynn (or whomever).
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Read Ace's post, then read my post, then read my edit. ;-) There was a hole in what Ace was saying (that wurm should have said something in case 2). I was responding to that, but, yeah, I missed the obvious point that Ace should know what happened anyway. I don't know why he's being tricky about it.
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@ Ace:
Whoever the medic(s) protected knows how many people protected him. He should tell you.
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Because he blurted it out earlier in the thread. I'll dig it up if you want.
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I don't think there is a strong enough case to lynch wurm over Ghar. As far as leaving him to die, does anyone think the Mafia will kill him if they know that we will lynch him tomorrow?On March 26 2008 02:53 Showtime! wrote:
Um, we have a lot more than just 2 verified.
lol Showtime!, what are you talking about?
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On March 26 2008 04:37 Scorch wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2008 03:03 qrs wrote:
I don't think there is a strong enough case to lynch wurm over Ghar. As far as leaving him to die, does anyone think the Mafia will kill him if they know that we will lynch him tomorrow? We don't need to lynch wurm over Ghar, we can kill both. Ace isn't roleblocked tomorrow, so he can announce a double lynch. Wurm is dead for sure. Mafia will probably not kill him tonight to cast further suspicion on him. It looks as if he will be lynched tomorrow, and if not and he is townie, mafia can still murder him next night. Double lynches aren't free kills. We only have 6 of them.
Anyway, you still have tonight to prove yourself, wurm. PM Ace the name of the person you're protecting--if you're lucky, Mafia will go for him.
Ahrara, the logic behind Ace's plan is very simple: simply a way to narrow down who the Mafia are. It only works if people follow it. Why would you abstain? There aren't enough detectives to check everyone individually--otherwise this game would be a lot easier for the town.
If you are townie, it hurts the town for you to vote that way. If one person can get away with doing it, anyone can, and the plan goes down the drain. That alone would be a reason to lynch you, whether you are townie or not.
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On March 26 2008 08:00 Naib wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2008 06:35 qrs wrote:
(...)
Ahrara, the logic behind Ace's plan is very simple: simply a way to narrow down who the Mafia are. It only works if people follow it. Why would you abstain? There aren't enough detectives to check everyone individually (...)
That's why he said he'll vote for a random person, so the detective can check the group along with him (if he votes with a small herd, a detective checking that out [unlimited ability: "How many of the people that voted for X are mafia?" question] could easily validate his trustworthyness to Ace) Please, guys, this is like the 3rd time a question like this comes up. At least try to remember what each member of the game can do (especially detectives, everyone seems to forget their abilities) Edit #2: screwed up quoting, that was the reason for my edit Yes, I understood what he meant. My point remains, we don't have enough detectives to check everyone individually. They only have one check a night. It's far more efficient to check large groups and narrow them down, as per the plan Ace is following, then to check groups of 1, or small groups.
So what were your notes on me, Ace?
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On March 26 2008 11:31 Showtime! wrote:
Oh for fucks sake stop spamming useless banter QFT
Practice what you preach.
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They're good at hitting blues but bad at maximizing their kills.
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On March 27 2008 11:47 Chezinu wrote:
"my quiet friend here is Mr. Pink" that totally eliminates HeRoS)Pink from being Mr.Pink LOL. Good catch.
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someone kill showtime! please
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Just caught up on the last 10 pages or so...
I seem to be alone in this, but TBH, for argument's sake, if someone hacked into a chatroom, I would see that as part of the game, not even BM. Like picking the lock on a conference room in real life. But it's a moot point.
Anyway, I don't want to derail the game, but it's gotten to the point where I just don't want to read Showtime!'s posts anymore, no matter what his role is. Casting my second vote to lynch Showtime!
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On March 29 2008 00:28 Kau wrote:
Well ideally, if he didn't pm his role he could be suspected as mafia. But of course many people have decided not to pm Ace because :
a) they think it's a cheap strategy and will make the game too easy.
b) they're a townie and think that it wouldn't make a difference if they pm'ed Ace.
Both of which are not true.
I am a townie, I've said so in the thread, and it wouldn't make a difference if I PMed Ace. Absolutely true.
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On March 29 2008 00:57 Showtime! wrote:
i don't post anything public
I wish
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No, you missed the point, Showtime! And you keep missing it.
On March 29 2008 01:14 Showtime! wrote:
We've wasted enough time on 'stupid' townies
QFT.
You can have the last word if you like, Showtime!, I won't post anything more about you.
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Yes, no need to check Ace.
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*Jaw drops*. If Ghar was a townie, I'm done with clue interpretation.
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On March 30 2008 11:40 Amber[LighT] wrote:Show nested quote +On March 30 2008 09:47 qrs wrote:
*Jaw drops*. If Ghar was a townie, I'm done with clue interpretation. Looks like you're done interpreting clues.
Thank you, Captain Obvious.
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On March 30 2008 19:35 Alethios wrote:Show nested quote +On March 30 2008 14:08 qrs wrote:On March 30 2008 11:40 Amber[LighT] wrote:On March 30 2008 09:47 qrs wrote:
*Jaw drops*. If Ghar was a townie, I'm done with clue interpretation. Looks like you're done interpreting clues. Thank you, Captain Obvious. Anytime.
Huh?
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If Ace has really quit (although I don't think he has), the one to replace him would have to be randombum. Because of his bodyguard protection.
Edit: crossposted with nightmare
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If Ace is Mafia then our detectives were all worthless.
PS-Thank you, Queasy. We all owe you one.
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On April 04 2008 00:38 Scorch wrote:Show nested quote +On April 04 2008 00:29 ~OpZ~ wrote:
.....Well...Safe to say arraav is mafia...Lol....
atleast, if any of those people were in the channel when he came on it. i think there would have been a couple more blue kills if that was the case. Remember, the detectives were probably protected by medics, so the Mafia had to waste some hits to be sure of killing them. If they were being ultra-safe and using 3 hits each, that's 6 hits used up right there.
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Waiting on Ace, but so far, araav seems at least suspicious, given what we know: viz, he got into a chatroom and had a chance to see the names of people who had roles. He's never really addressed what happened there.
Araav, I think it's time for you to explain yourself. How did you find it, why did you go there, what did you see there? And why did two detectives die last night?
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On April 04 2008 15:34 araav wrote:Show nested quote +On April 04 2008 08:24 qrs wrote:
Waiting on Ace, but so far, araav seems at least suspicious, given what we know: viz, he got into a chatroom and had a chance to see the names of people who had roles. He's never really addressed what happened there.
Araav, I think it's time for you to explain yourself. How did you find it, why did you go there, what did you see there? And why did two detectives die last night? qrs, you were more attentive to what happened at the beginning... I already answered the accusations "several pages ago" (c). Show nested quote +On March 28 2008 16:21 araav wrote:Guys, I kindly ask everybody - please do not use bad words when referring to me - even with "if". Remember - this is a game - a good game thanks to Chuiu, please do not ruin it for us. Also, remmeber the nature of the game for the future. You do not necessarily believe to ideas thrown here by random people, unless you are 100% sure they are townies. Sometimes dumb towneis can ruin the game by really stupid moves. Now, for stupid moves. Throwing in this idea was really stupid of Showtime (or Ace, if he stands after this). if Showtime's a townie: come on - mafia already knows this is false, so whom you are fucking with - with townies? want to lure some dumb mafia into this and find him out? do you really think mafia members would be so dumb? if Showtime's a mafia: this is somewhat logical for a mafia member to distract the town's usual day-flow of smart guys' analyzing the clues, making good points, etc. But still dumb enough. Do you think Ace is stupid to collect the "blues" together? Even if there was 1% chance of haveing a fake blue there that must not happned. <-> (like Tracil did ) overall...... something is not right out here... from one hand it seems that Showtime is green, as the killed mafia member was panicing and Ace brought some info in... form the other hand - what the hell is he doing? Now, let's analyze the situation and try to understand what really happened with hindsight. Show nested quote +if Showtime's a townie:
come on - mafia already knows this is false, so whom you are fucking with - with townies? want to lure some dumb mafia into this and find him out? do you really think mafia members would be so dumb? it turned out Showtime is a green. so why on earth was he talking about? Why Ace supported him saying "at that moment, when araav entered there were at most 5-6 blues"? Why on earth was Showtime in the "channel of clues"? What really happened? I think these are the questions that Ace can answer only.
In short, you are saying that this IRC channel never was?
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Araav, I still don't understand what you say happened with the "channel". Let me summarize your so-called "answer to the accusations":
1) Please don't call me bad names.
2) Don't believe everything everyone says.
3) Now, for stupid moves. Throwing in this idea was really stupid of Showtime (or Ace, if he stands after this).
if Showtime's a townie:
come on - mafia already knows this is false, so whom you are fucking with - with townies?...Do you think Ace is stupid to collect the "blues" together? Even if there was 1% chance of haveing a fake blue there that must not happned.
I'm not sure what you meant by this. It sounds like you're saying that the channel didn't exist. Or are you saying that it existed but there were no blues there? In any case, how would Mafia know this is false any more than townies?
4) Showtime may be a Mafia member.
Three irrelevant points and one that sort of addresses the issue, but is too vague to understand. Can you just say plainly what you mean? Was there a channel at all? Were you in it? If Showtime! made the whole thing up, say so. If that's not what you meant, say so.
Meanwhile, you continue to make illogical insinuations that Ace is Mafia, even though ALL of the detectives were supposed to investigate him, and NONE of them said a word. You seem to be a smart guy: this lapse in logic is...odd.
All this adds up to: I vote for araav until he defends himself more clearly.
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On April 05 2008 02:03 Ace wrote:
Showtime and Emp were acting suspicious all the time to...make the Mafia want to keep them alive.
They failed to kill both of them before. They did pretty damn well. If the Mafia tried to kill them before, then the Mafia didn't want to keep them alive, wouldn't you say? So they didn't do well at the stated goal of making the Mafia want to keep them alive. Not that it really matters...
Ace, what's the deal with araav, and this whole chatroom thing?
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On April 06 2008 07:48 Pangolin wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2008 07:31 BlindAlbino wrote:
Is in interest of all who condemn the future, and live in past, to become one vote from outer dimension. With open mind and furnished instincts we will find mafia this lynch.
From apple to zebra we take one step at time until we fall down stairs or build foundation.
with this in your mind you know its correct vote araav. Well I don't know what you just said but I believe araav was checked by a DT and confirmed innocent.
What is the basis for this belief?
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On April 06 2008 15:17 Pangolin wrote:Show nested quote +On April 06 2008 13:52 qrs wrote:On April 06 2008 07:48 Pangolin wrote:On April 06 2008 07:31 BlindAlbino wrote:
Is in interest of all who condemn the future, and live in past, to become one vote from outer dimension. With open mind and furnished instincts we will find mafia this lynch.
From apple to zebra we take one step at time until we fall down stairs or build foundation.
with this in your mind you know its correct vote araav. Well I don't know what you just said but I believe araav was checked by a DT and confirmed innocent. What is the basis for this belief? Showtime's comments in the thread about wasting role checks as well as scorch's comment a couple pages back saying that Showtime! (who was proven innocent and was in the IRC channel) sent him a PM calling araav a stupid townie. Also the fact that it would be pretty necessary to check him after the events described and there was no call to lynch/vigilante hit after the IRC incident settled. I guess Ace could probably confirm or deny this.
Showtime! was full of it. I should hope Ace would tell us if we were voting for someone who was confirmed innocent.
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OK, I admit that showtime was an idiot and the chatroom story made very little sense anyway. The only reason I half-believed it was that Ace had been backing showtime up. I don't know what Ace is thinking, though, so since he hasn't brought it up since showtime died... I'd change my vote, but the final vote count is in.
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On April 08 2008 10:43 NatsuTerran wrote:
I really don't think Caller is a mafia suspect. Just because there is stuff involving phones doesn't mean it's a clue. Chuiu just puts it in for the story. The same goes for martial arts clues. Last game Chuiu said he simply likes kicking. Otherwise yeah I like the idea of top suspects voting for one person just so we can see how many of our clues are lining up.
It's not just phones; there were some references to lead, I think. Cf., e.g., this post.
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What the hell, Ace! Maybe it's your fault, maybe not, but you've done nothing but screw over the town this game. Don't check out the Ghar clue, make us lynch wurm, take the lynch off the suicide bomber so we lynch a townie instead, apparently leak information (deliberately or not) that leads to Mafia figuring out half the roles! I'm through taking direction.
Plexa's list seems to be the best thing we've got now.
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On April 10 2008 22:41 HeRoS)Pink wrote:
araav is a confirmed townie, showtime! said it before dying, theres no reason to lynch him
Showtime! said a lot of things, most of them idiotic and/or trying to make himself look important. Ace himself has already "confirmed" at least one mafioso as a townie. I consider Showtime!'s "confirmation" worth absolutely nothing.
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thought better of my post; pointless to criticise over spilt milk
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On April 11 2008 04:27 Ace wrote:
Just because I don't tell YOU anything it doesn't mean I don't know what's going on. No, but the fact that you've been wrong about many of the things you have told us seems to indicate that.
And since dead people can't post, I'm forever voting qrs to be lynched in the hopes that he dies and shuts the fuck up.
That pretty much speaks for itself, doesn't it?
But I thought it over and you do have a point; there's not much gained by me bitching about your leadership. And although you've done pretty badly overall, I have no reason to think that I would have been any better. I edited out that second post of mine, and I won't bring the subject up again. I will shut the f--- up, in other words. (You can keep voting for me if you like: hopefully it won't affect whom we lynch.)
On the subject of L, I was convinced at first, but once I actually looked at the numbers, they don't seem to add up. As LTT pointed out, there are a lot more than 12 nails.
Edit: And if you're counting the nails that hit him, there are only 8.+ Show Spoiler +Down the hall New104 was starting to get worried, rather he was starting to get a little thirsty himself. Empyrean was taking his time, he thought, so that must mean he's brewing a fresh pot. He got up to go get some coffee himself when he noticed five nails on the ground, he walked slowly over to them to investigate. As he was bending over to take a closer look Cottonmouth approached from behind and stabbed a nail into his back. He fell to the ground and Cottonmouth used the opportunity to stab six more nails into him. New104 was cringing in pain but he knew he had to defend himself, he started getting up but met gaze with a strange man on his way up. King Brown Snake slapped him back to the ground and started beating him as he lay there. New104 wasn't anywhere near dead at this point, but his adrenaline was flowing and he used the sudden surge in strength to knock King Brown Snake to the ground and get up himself. He dodge three more nails flying at him and got out to the hallway. Noticing a mafia walking down from the break room he started heading down the opposite direction to the armory. Cottonmouth was in the hallway now and was about to throw another nail at New104 when The Wolf interrupted him. "You just need to hit the right spot" he said as he threw the nail down the hallway, it landed square in the back of New104's head and he convulsed as he dropped to the ground, dying less then a minute later.
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After thinking over the evidence, I'm going to vote for suresh0t. I think he's the Wolf. Here are my reasons:
1) We don't know a whole lot about the Wolf, but one thing seems to be clear: he hits his targets (sure shot). Of course the most blatant example of that is: The Wolf interrupted him. "You just need to hit the right spot" he said as he threw the nail down the hallway, it landed square in the back of New104's head and he convulsed as he dropped to the ground, dying less then a minute later. That's the only one I would regard as a strong clue, but looking at the other times we've met the Wolf, they check out as well:
The Wolf approached "Sorry Chuiu, I gotta do this I hope you understand" as he pulled out a gun and made his mark on Chuiu's head.
He met gaze with The Wolf who was carrying some more debris from the building. Caller rolled to his right trying to dodge an attack from The Wolf but wasn't fast enough and took a vicious blow to the chest. He rolled to the side and started searching around for a weapon of his own as he jumped up from the ground. Nothing around, Caller tried dodging the next attack but King Brown Snake was on him again and the blow pierced through his skull. note: King Brown Snake gets in Chuiu's way, but the attack is from the Wolf Neither Chuiu nor Caller can dodge the Wolf's attack. (The other mafia missed plenty, and sometimes the victims survive for a while.) As I said, though, it's the first quote which really stands out. A nail thrown down the hall, killing instantly? I mean, come on, if that's not a sure shot, than nothing is.
2) Someone pointed this out a long time ago: suresh0ts signature, "Please forgive me for questioning divinity, it's an ugly job but I think I'm up for it", fits with "Sorry Chuiu, I gotta do this I hope you understand." (faux-apologizing for attacking an authority-figure)
3) His posts? Pretty bland. His votes: goes with the bandwagon or abstains. Not proof of anything on its own, but certainly what I would consider consistent with a mafioso trying to lie low.
4) For what it's worth, he's on the Mandalor list.
5) This is the clincher. We've all been wondering about those nails, right? Check out what suresh0t is holding in his profile pic:
That's right. A hammer.
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On April 11 2008 10:13 HeRoS)Pink wrote:
Suresh0t is my 3rd suspect, after Siefu and L, all those things were said previously but the town is inactive as hell theres like 2-3 poeple finding clues and then we have out of nowhere (who doesnt post a lot) making post to defend themselves which is weird.
Yeah, sorry, I thought the hammer was something new, but looking back, I see that Plexa had already alluded to it. Anyway, regardless of who found which clues, the stuff pointing to suresh0t is starting to add up, no? As opposed to the very strained interpretation of 12, since the numbers don't really add up to that.
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Since my last post got buried after a minute here's the summary version of the clues that connect the Wolf to suresh0t:
1) Doesn't miss. 2) Tells Chuiu something that is very similar to suresh0t's sig. 3) Nails. suresh0t is holding a hammer in his profile pic.
Also, 4) suresh0t is on the Mandalor list and 5) he's been posting very lightly and bandwagoning or abstaining in votes.
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^You have a reasonable excuse for abstaining--I wouldn't vote to lynch you just for that. All I say is that it is consistent with what a mafioso would probably want to do. As for the nails, I don't agree with you that they necessarily point to Cottonmouth. They were lying around: any of the mafiosi mentioned in the post might have left them there.
On April 11 2008 10:40 Camlito wrote:Show nested quote +On April 08 2008 16:52 Camlito wrote:
I'd like to emphasize this once more:
We have the following certain information:
EITHER one out of
- imDerek
- Evilmonkey
- Alventenie
is mafia, OR two out of
- Chezinu
- useLess
- aZnvaLiaNce
- fusionsdf
are mafia.
From among the second list, only one of useLess and aZnvaLiaNce can be mafia - not both -, and only one of Chezinu and fusionsdf can be mafia.
At worst, we have a 1/7 chance to get a mafia from among these, a stunning 2/4 at best, so i emphatically suggest we take this path in our investigations. Keep your eyes open for evidence against any of these guys!
My gut feeling says it's either useLess and fusionsdf or Evilmonkey, but it's just that: an unfounded gut feeling.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
We should really look at these lists more, as there is a much better chance.
As i said before, useLess has a high chance of being mafia, as one of the clues i remember referred to a mafia being tossed aside, which indicates he is rather "useless". Ok 3rd time i will post this. Unless im missing something or this is a joke, this should be looked at. See where it sais "chezinu or fusionsdf" can be mafia? CHEZINU IS NOW DEAD! I don't know if people missed this, or i am an idiot, or both - but this should be looked at.
(original post)
It's a good point. Are we sure that all those detective checks were from real detectives? (I suppose that if Ace doesn't tell us otherwise, we should assume so.)
I'll cast my second vote for fusion.
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On April 11 2008 11:11 fusionsdf wrote:
Can you go over how you got this more clearly, because at best, it seems like either me and chezinu were both mafia, or one of the list of - imDerek
- Evilmonkey
- Alventenie
is mafia Either one of you and Chezinu was Mafia and one of useless/aznvaliance was mafia as well, or one of the other three (going by those lists: I didn't see when they were originally posted). The thing is: whether you are Mafia or not, lynching you (out of the six) gives us the most information.
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On April 11 2008 11:43 Amber[LighT] wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2008 11:32 fusionsdf wrote:On April 11 2008 10:56 Amber[LighT] wrote:On April 11 2008 10:23 fusionsdf wrote:On April 11 2008 10:06 Amber[LighT] wrote:
No one finds it ironic that the suicidebomber killed our last detective?! almost like taunting us. At this point I think we have to assume that the mafia has at least a partial list of rolled towniesEspecially since they've been ignoring active townies for inactive ones, something that doesnt make sense as part of standard mafia strategy. How?! This makes no sense to me. We aren't posting these people's names all over the forum, unless I missed that post. araav + irc So why aren't we targeting him? Did we decide it was okay to kill off all the players with special roles? Even if he's a townie that's shitty to do.
Because we don't know what happened. araav says it wasn't him. Ace sort of maybe says that the blues weren't in the channel, or only some of the blues were in the channel, I don't know.
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It's easy to manipulate statistics. For example, you write, "Keep in mind that none of us are in the mandalor list, so the odds of any of us being mafia is about 1/10." That has nothing to do with it. 1/10 would be the odds if all we knew about was the mandalor list. But we have other information.
Either one mafioso voted in both lists or two mafioso voted: one in each. That means either the trio of ImDerek/evilmonkey/alventenie contains one mafioso or all are innocent. If they are innocent, you are Mafia and one of useless/aznvaliance is mafia.
ImDerek: 1/6 chance of being mafia (1/2*1/3)
evilmonkey: 1/6
alventenie: 1/6
fusion: 1/2 (1/2 *1)
useless: 1/4 (1/2* 1/2)
aznvaliance: 1/4.
edit: I agree it seems likely that there was some kind of leak. Ace already said that at least some of that was Mandalor. Maybe other fake blues picked up information as well. If it was araav, shouldn't Ace be pushing for his lynching? Then again, Ace hasn't been acting that rationally recently, so I don't know.
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To be fair to Plexa, he came up with the number 12 before he could think of anyone to link it to. Even so, it seems like a very weak clue to me. The daggers I could maybe buy, but the nails just don't add up. 16 mentioned, 10+1 thrown/stabbed, 7+1 hit. Where do you see 12?
We shouldn't split our votes so much that a non-candidate gets lynched (e.g. me--6 votes; evidence: "I want him to shut up" ). I still think that more clues point to suresh0t than to anyone else. My second vote is for fusion atm, but I'll change it if necessary.
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^fusion, you're twisting the stats. The Ghar/Ace lists give us more detailed information than the Mandalor list. Yes, 7/63 people are mafia, but 1 or 2 of those 7 are one of you 6.
You might as well say, "Of the billions of people in the world, what are the odds that I'm a mafioso?"
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I've read all your posts. Even you admit that there are clues pointing at you. What should I do, take your word that you're innocent?
If you get lynched and flip green, I hereby apologize now.
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There's also the sig. My take on the nails? Maybe Cottonmouth picked up the nails that Wolf had left lying around. Or maybe you're not the Wolf after all, but you are Cottonmouth. Or maybe the nails don't point at you. I'm not sure that you're Mafia, just there's more evidence for you than for anyone else, IMO.
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On April 15 2008 09:53 BlindAlbino wrote:
hahaha = ) my hand has been dealt
Wow, was that a confession?
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Well, we know who our next lynch is. Guess he won't need a blindfold.
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On April 15 2008 12:07 MTF wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2008 12:04 qrs wrote:On April 15 2008 09:53 BlindAlbino wrote:
hahaha = ) my hand has been dealt Wow, was that a confession? Well, it's not quite like he had a chance with the amount of evidence against him. :p Nice work spotting those clues, by the way. It was obvious once you pointed it out, but no one had seen it.
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On April 15 2008 15:11 MTF wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2008 14:30 Ace wrote:also if the #s in Snake Charmer's paragrapg add up to 46 the next day it's we assume Master of Chaos is mafia right? Yes, though I feel already that it's pretty strongly evident as is.
I can't believe you actually think your convoluted numerology constitutes strong evidence. No offense--you did great with BlindAlbino, but the Master of Chaos "clue" is absurdly strained: + Show Spoiler +Cottonmouth:
Cottonmouth is surrounded by numbers. By counting up the number references in the Day posts he shows up in, we arrive at this:
Day 2:
Specific numbers mentioned:
2, 1, 1, 4, 3, 1, 3, 3, 4, 1, 4 = 27
Number placements:
once, fourth, = 5
Name (OneBlueAugust):
1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 = 10
Total: 42 (40 + day 2)
Day 4:
Specific numbers mentioned:
5, 6, 3 = 14
Name (New104):
1, 0, 4, 1, 0, 4, 1, 0, 4, 1, 0, 4, 1, 0, 4, 1, 0, 4 = 30
Total: 44 (40 + day 4)
#40 on the participant list is MasterOfChaos.
I don't know whether MoC is Mafia or not, but I'd bet a thousand dollars that your evidence has nothing to do with it.
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On April 15 2008 20:04 MTF wrote:
Also, the fact that the numbers that come up when these two days added are just two apart and that by subtracting the SPECIFIC day that it was on you come up with 40 both times, I find little room for coincidence. It's not "also"--it's necessary to your interpretation. I find plenty of room for coincidence.No offense, but your logic is shoddy. It's not a matter of logic but of judgement. I'll say no more of it now--if you've convinced people, they'll vote for him--but after the game (if not earlier) we'll see whether you were right. I'll be stunned if you are.
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On April 15 2008 20:49 MTF wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2008 20:48 qrs wrote:On April 15 2008 20:04 MTF wrote:
Also, the fact that the numbers that come up when these two days added are just two apart and that by subtracting the SPECIFIC day that it was on you come up with 40 both times, I find little room for coincidence. It's not "also"--it's necessary to your interpretation. I find plenty of room for coincidence. No offense, but your logic is shoddy. It's not a matter of logic but of judgement. I'll say no more of it now--if you've convinced people, they'll vote for him--but after the game (if not earlier) we'll see whether you were right. I'll be stunned if you are. Read the above and reply again. I was going to leave it at that, but since you posted while I was writing that, and since you specifically tell me to reply, I will:
1) Chuiu has never based clues off people's numbers in the list and I don't think he ever will. This is an important point, because it makes it MUCH easier to twist the clues to point at anyone you like. Everyone has a number, not just people like Eti307 (and by the way, I think it's more likely that some of the numbers [3-0-7 nails] point at him than at MoC), and the numbers go in increments of one. That means all I have to do is find a couple of tweaks to your count to make the clue point at someone else. It also means that ANY number you came up with would point at someone.
2) You don't count things like "a", "the", "another", because they are not literal numbers, but you do count "once". That's not a number any more than "a" is.
3) Subtract the number of the day? That strikes me as particularly tortured. You only do it to make your count consistent.
I do think the numbers--OR SOME OF THEM--are probably a clue. I don't think you've interpreted that clue though.
If you still disagree, fine, you're welcome to. The truth will come around in the end.
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On April 15 2008 21:15 MTF wrote:
1: Just because he hasn't doesn't mean he wouldn't. You say it's easy to twist the clues, but reading my bold/capitalized you can clearly see I haven't done anything but count numeric references. ALL of them that are specifically numeric and NONE that are not. And you've yet to provide any specific "tweaks".
*sigh* I hardly think it's necessary, but to make you happy I had a look to see what I could tweak and I noticed that you had inexplicably failed to bold "two knives met his hands". Oh, hey, now the numbers both add up to 44! They must point at str! (sarcasm, but that would still be marginally more convincing than your original version).
2: If you wanna be stubborn about it... No, I don't want to be stubborn about it. I wasn't going to post again until you specifically told me to. I'm not going to debate "once" vs. "a" with you now, because it's not worth the effort. Neither one is a cardinal number. Both refer to single things. If you see a difference between them, that's great.
Why do you keep criticizing without trying to point out where exactly I'm wrong and provide your own analysis?
Honestly, you're either very stubborn or protecting MoC. I don't truly know which to feel is more likely.
I did point out where I felt your analysis was stretched. I can't say "wrong" because there's no proof per se against your concoction (nor against any other 'clues'). I just don't find it very credible.
I've said I'm willing to drop this. You're the one who's being stubborn. I know you're proud of your detective work, but that doesn't mean that anyone who disagrees with you is Mafia.
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I don't have much confidence in Ace's judgment, since it has been wrong more often than it has been right so far. Meanwhile, unless I missed something when I was catching up on the thread, the whole accusation against L was based on a mistake that L pointed out and Chuiu confirmed. Therefore, as far as we know, there is no case against L at the moment. (Of course, the Mafia knows he's a medic now: too bad...)
I will not be voting for L this lynch. I'll probably vote suresh0t because of the clues that seem to point at him. (summary: + Show Spoiler +1)sure shot: 1-hit kill with nail thrown down hall; twice says that Caller tried to dodge but couldn't. 2) signature: apology for taking on God (authority) but someone has to do it, corresponds with the Wolf's apology to Chuiu for killing him (Chuiu was an authority figure in the Mafia). 3) Profile pic: hammer--goes with nails.
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On April 17 2008 17:12 Ace wrote:
@qrs: there's so much I have to take care of behind the scenes you've got no idea why things keep going wrong. I've literally had over 100 PMs about all kinds of stuff this game and it's not easy trying to decipher the liars from the innocent. Either way everything I've done so far has brought the town closer to victory. What exactly have you done besides criticize from day 1? OK, maybe. I don't know what goes on behind the scenes and I don't know whether everything you've done so far has brought the town closer to victory, so I'm not commenting on that. All I see is the final results, and based on those so far, I'm not ready to vote for someone just on your say-so. If L turns out to be Mafia, I'll get behind you again. If he turns out to be townie, I'll be that bit more skeptical of you. So we'll see.
People are saying that L is a suspect for other reasons. Can anyone summarize them for me, please?
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Show nested quote +On April 18 2008 00:14 MTF wrote:On April 17 2008 23:30 qrs wrote:
People are saying that L is a suspect for other reasons. Can anyone summarize them for me, please? 1. L was asked to protect decafchicken on Night 5. 2. created L as a "force of justice" why we're here to rid the world of good, because we're the only ones who can". 3. L Lawliet (エル・ローライト, Eru Rōraito?), commonly referred to by his alias "L" (エル, Eru?), is a fictional character in the manga and anime series Death Note. He is considered the world's greatest detective, noticed Enigma writing a note, perhaps with the intention to replace Empyreans findings with false ones to throw the town off. 4. Obata believes that the design evokes "a feeling of mystery" and that the reader cannot determine L's true thoughts. 5. Obata asked Ohba if L could be "unattractive." - As well as many other specific physical references to his creation here.Empyrean noted the features of the man and quickly linked him to a murder just the previous day. Enigma had an ugly look on his face as he tackled decafchicken to the ground
1) Not that strong: for all we know, L did protect decaf, but it's something.
2) OK.
3) weakish.
4) OK.
5) Don't think this one is a clue: L wasn't drawn as unattractive in the end, and there isn't so much evidence that Enigma is unattractive.
Overall the evidence seems fairly good, though, although I still like suresh0t better. Thanks for clarifying.
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On April 18 2008 00:31 Plexa wrote:
qrs who do you feel is the stronger suspect then?
They both seem pretty strong to me. suresh0t seems to have more things pointing directly to details of his profile, whereas with L it's more of an overall reference to the character L: enigmatic, concerned about justice, possible connection to a detective (hmm, it just occurred to me that the note could be a reference to "death note", too). I favor suresh0t slightly, but L would likely be my second choice. The only other issue is that he may be a medic. I guess we need to trust Ace to handle that end of things.
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On April 18 2008 00:37 Camlito wrote:
how the fuck is sureshot enigma again?
because so far hes like 4 people lol. The Wolf. One person.
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^your wikipedia link was to the main article L, which was about the letter. no matter
Wow, awesome, araav (the blog post especially).
On April 18 2008 14:06 MTF wrote:Show nested quote +Alright, so once again, old references brought to the forefront. I'll note that Heros pointed this out right after I put up the definition of his name, and Plexa + associate PM'ed me about his name connecting again. I wasn't quite sold on it earlier, but as we find that mafia connections are usually simpler than not, I'm leaning towards mafia. Ziel as The Wolf:First, the translation: Ziel
German or Dutch. German translation includes aim, designation, destination, end, object and target. Dutch translation is soul. The Wolf, as I'm sure everyone knows by now, is incredibly accurate and has several "target" references. The Wolf approached "Sorry Chuiu, I gotta do this I hope you understand" as he pulled out a gun and made his mark on Chuiu's head. "You just need to hit the right spot" he said as he threw the nail down the hallway, it landed square in the back of New104's head He met gaze with The Wolf who was carrying some more debris from the building. Caller rolled to his right trying to dodge an attack from The Wolf but wasn't fast enough and took a vicious blow to the chest. The italic in the last just makes sure to note that it was made clear his attack was, again, something most probably thrown. Now, qrs made a good argument for suresh0t being The Wolf instead, but at this point in the game, I feel the most natural connections are the strongest ones. So, I feel, along with Plexa and his associate, that Ziel is the strongest candidate we have for Wolf. You're saying that a German translation that means target is a more natural connection to accuracy than "sure shot"? Can't say I agree with that...
To add to the possible evidence against suresh0t, there's a reference to the Wolf carrying debris out of a building (after d.arkive's suicide blast). Why would anyone do that? It sounds a bit like a construction worker (the hammer again). Granted, this particular connection is a bit weak, but does anyone have a better explanation for "carrying a pile of debris"?
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Cool, good job with crazie-penguin. I have to admit that I was skeptical about the evidence, but I was wrong; nice work.
Re Eti307, let me remind you of something someone else suggested a while ago (forgot who it was): the number of nails Cottonmouth uses may relate to Eti: 7 stabbed in the back, 3 thrown but missed, 1 not thrown at all (stopped by the Wolf, = 0). That would connect him to Cottonmouth rather than Joe, but it's something else to keep in mind. (307 doesn't fit with the number of knives, though, so I'm not really sold on this.)
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MTF, for God's sake, stop adding up the stupid numbers! It was unconvincing from the start, and it's only getting more and more strained.
The only numbers we care about are the weapons Cottonmouth uses. Haven't you noticed that there are always 15?
edit: It's not %100 clear. I assume that the two that klive dodged were the same two that Cottonmouth threw and I count the five nails lying on the ground but I don't count the nail that the Wolf took from Cottonmouth.
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On April 23 2008 21:12 Plexa wrote:
Todays Lynching
L and ulszz unless anyone has any objections (L we don't care about yours)
I have a slight objection to lynching L unless we have no other good suspects. Reason: 1) There's still the possibility that he's a medic and 2) even if he isn't, we can still use him as one to a degree. E.g. if we want to keep Plexa alive (or someone else--no one too important, though), just keep telling L to protect him. Either L lets him die and we lynch L then, or he lives.
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On April 24 2008 11:39 Amber[LighT] wrote:
If we can somehow manage to lynch the saboteur today that will put us at a great advantage since we will no longer be role-blocked, which prevented us from a 2x lynch yesterday, and we need to utilize those for the remainder of the game.
Not really such a big deal: there are only 4 double-lynches left.
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On April 27 2008 17:32 Plexa wrote:
also note that qrs has been resistant to Ace/Town since Day 0 and generally annoying to everyone involved.
Can't comment on the generally annoying part--sorry, I guess--but what is "resistant to Town" supposed to mean? I've voted, commented if I thought some clue interpretation was convincing/unconvincing. What else is a good townie supposed to do?
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Another one-shot kill for the Wolf.
And another clue pointing at suresh0t: the whole pointing charade between him and Eddie may connect to his sig: "Please forgive me for questioning divinity, it's an ugly job but I think I'm up for it". It's already been pointed out that this fits with the killing of Chuiu (attacking authority-figure, apologizing for it); it may fit with LastRomantic as well. Neither mafioso wants to be the one to kill him (pointing to the other guy to do it) but finally it's the Wolf who is up to taking on the "ugly job". As a staff member...well, I won't say LastRomantic is a divinity, but maybe close enough for Chuiu's purposes.
(Gee, I hope I'm not wrong about suresh0t--that would make this crusade of mine embarrassing.)
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He could be Mr. Blue, as well, with the general theme of incompetence.
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What is this "controversial list"?
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On May 05 2008 11:51 Plexa wrote:Show nested quote +On May 05 2008 03:20 Scorch wrote:On May 04 2008 22:08 Plexa wrote:On May 04 2008 21:59 qrs wrote:
What is this "controversial list"? oh it basically means that.. + Show Spoiler [innocent] +Pangolin
Naib
BWDero
SoleSteeler
(Last Romantic)
(Zeks)
Ahrara
0cz3c and + Show Spoiler [mafia] +
One of;
LostYourSkills vs Lysithea
STR vs NatsuTerran vs LTT
And increases the likelihood of
GeneralStan
Nightmare
infinity21
being mafia
Huh? Where does this come from? I'd like to know how you pull such deductions out of your hat. If i revealed it i would be laughed at pm me if you are really curious
You can't expect us to take your list seriously if you don't tell us what it's about. If the reason you don't post it is that you would be laughed at, it sounds like it's pretty shaky evidence.
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The only person I can think of as a suspect for Cottonmouth, with his collections of weapons, is Puosu. He hasn't posted much, and he has the following strange sig: ,.-'´^`'-,.,.-'´^`'-,.,.-'´^`'-,.
Perhaps it's not the most convincing clue, but with some imagination, you can see those as a collection of weapons. There are various ways it might be broken up into 15, e.g. count ,. '´/`' and ^. The magic number may not be simply 15, either: they always seem to be broken up, mostly into groups of three, but sometimes 5, 2, or 1. Maybe someone can see a pattern there.
I'm not convinced of Puosu, just raising the possibility.
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On May 06 2008 22:04 Plexa wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2008 21:30 qrs wrote:
I vote clazziquai: Plexa and MTF have a decent track record, but if I don't know why I'm voting for someone, I don't vote for him. so why are you voting clazziquai whos evidence is rather dubious ? I thought you were the one who first pointed out the evidence for him, viz the connection to Mr. Orange ("me from Kiribati. me no speak English"). That plus somewhat suspicious behavior, like changing his signature, and irrelevant comments that do nothing to defend himself.
I voted for clazziquai of all the suspects so as not to spread the votes any further, since Alethios had already voted for him, but if you have serious doubts about whether he is Mafia, I don't mind changing my vote to suresh0t, who has the strongest evidence against him IMO. Or if you make a strong case against General Stan, I guess I could go with the bandwagon.
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Nothing's for sure, but this is why I think you're our surest sh0t.
Clues that may point to your name
+ Show Spoiler +Cottonmouth was in the hallway now and was about to throw another nail at New104 when The Wolf interrupted him. "You just need to hit the right spot" he said as he threw the nail down the hallway, it landed square in the back of New104's head and he convulsed as he dropped to the ground, dying less then a minute later. (that one looks blatant) Caller rolled to his right trying to dodge an attack from The Wolf but wasn't fast enough and took a vicious blow to the chest. He rolled to the side and started searching around for a weapon of his own as he jumped up from the ground. Nothing around, Caller tried dodging the next attack but King Brown Snake was on him again and the blow pierced through his skull. That plus the Wolf has never missed any of his targets and always kills them immediately.
Clues that may point to your signature
+ Show Spoiler +The Wolf approached "Sorry Chuiu, I gotta do this I hope you understand" As Last Romantic walked in he approached The Wolf and ordered a drink. The Wolf served him and a minute or two passed by before he realized the bar was completely empty except for him and The Wolf. Finally he got up and asked why there were no other customers. The Wolf pointed to the door where Eddie stood, Last Romantic noticed it was locked up and the lights on the front were off. He took it that the bar was closing and he should leave so he got up and headed to Eddie expecting him to open the door but Eddie stopped him instead and pointed back at The Wolf. Finally The Wolf ended the charade and shot Last Romantic in the head. The Wolf apologizes for attacking Chuiu, and seems reluctant to attack Last Romantic, yet in both cases he is the one to kill them. (Note that both Chuiu and Last Romantic can be seen as important figures, remniscent of the "divinity" mentioned in suresh0t's sig.)
Clues that may point to your photo
+ Show Spoiler +Empyrean was taking his time, he thought, so that must mean he's brewing a fresh pot. He got up to go get some coffee himself when he noticed five nails on the ground. Although you pointed out that the nails seem more connected with Cottonmouth, it doesn't actually say who left them lying around. It may have been the Wolf. You hold a hammer in your pic. He met gaze with The Wolf who was carrying some more debris from the building. Something a construction worker might be doing, eh? Can't think of any other good reason for the Wolf to be carrying debris from a building.
Reasons it is not implausible for you to be Mafia
-You have abstained/not voted/bandwagoned nearly every vote, as far as I saw. (That sort of stuff is most relevant in the beginning, when there were still detectives to check vote counts.)
-You haven't posted much in the thread besides to defend yourself.
-You are on the Mandalor list
That's basically it, I think.
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On May 07 2008 05:45 suresh0t wrote:
Caller tried dodging the next attack but King Brown Snake was on him again and the blow pierced through his skull.
That would be King Brown Snake with the kill blow, The Wolf got him once in the chest but it didnt kill him, which means he doesn't one shot kill. So you just disproved your own argument. No, you need to read more carefully: + Show Spoiler +Chuiu wrote:
King Brown Snake grabbed Caller's legs and he fell over after he lost his balance. Caller got a leg free and kicked off the maddened King Brown Snake but wasn't in the clear yet. He met gaze with The Wolf who was carrying some more debris from the building. Caller rolled to his right trying to dodge an attack from The Wolf but wasn't fast enough and took a vicious blow to the chest. He rolled to the side and started searching around for a weapon of his own as he jumped up from the ground. Nothing around, Caller tried dodging the next attack but King Brown Snake was on him again and the blow pierced through his skull. King Brown Snake gets in Caller's way, and makes it hard for him to dodge. The Wolf is the one who attacks. Can we agree that "the blow" is the same as "the next attack"? "The next attack" is launched before "King Brown Snake was on him again"; also the first "attack" comes from the Wolf, so presumably "the next attack" is the Wolf's next attack. It's true that it's not a one-shot kill, but both shots land.
The Last Romantic kill wasn't reluctance it was just smart. They cleared the bar of witnesses then killed him Wrong. Chuiu wrote:
The Wolf served him and a minute or two passed by before he realized the bar was completely empty except for him and The Wolf.
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On May 07 2008 06:35 suresh0t wrote:
qrs get off your high almighty horse. your clue interpretations are just as openly flawed as anyone else's.
Sure my interpretations may be flawed. I didn't dispute any of the subjective parts of your post, just the mistakes. Sorry if I sounded obnoxious about it.
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On May 08 2008 04:40 HotZhot wrote:
That mr.blonde sure is one though individual, just won't die. Come on Ace, Plexa who to vote for? stupid finals For Mr. Blonde? Isn't ninja4ever the top suspect?
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On May 08 2008 14:10 ahrara_ wrote:
I'm kinda hoping Mafia will try and kill me so I don't feel so completely useless. LOL, you've wanted that from day one.
On March 22 2008 13:42 ahrara_ wrote:
I don't know whether to be relieved or hurt the mafia doesn't think I'm worth killing.
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Well, I didn't think he was our strongest suspect, but it was worth a shot, I guess. Now we can go on to surer cases like
suresh0t (Wolf)
clazziquai (Orange)
ninja (Blonde)
right?
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I still think that Puosu could be a suspect for Cottonmouth (viewing that signature of his as a collection of weapons). I admit that it's kind of weak, Anyone have anything better for the master of the 15-shot kill?
BTW, something I noticed from the last night: Mr. Blonde, partnering with Cotton, seems to take on his associate's distinctive characteristic: he also kills with 15 weapons. I looked back at the other posts to see if there was a theme of Mr. Blonde copying the other mafiosi, but there didn't really seem to be one, so I don't know, but it might be a clue.
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On May 11 2008 05:04 Plexa wrote:
The thing is, im privy to highly sensitive information...
Haha, I'm tired of people doing this. Ace was talking this way at the beginning and his privileged information turned out to be a double-edged sword at best. Now Plexa's doing the same thing: a mysterious "controversial list" that turns out to be worthless (General Stan) and now this "highly sensitive" information that he's supposedly privy to. I can't speak for the rest of the town--most of which seems to like bandwagoning--but as far as my vote goes, people's secret information does not factor into it.
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^Oh, Ace gave you that list? Well, as long as we know what it is, that's all right, then. Probably better not to publish it in the thread: if the Mafia knows who the confirmed townies are, they can target them, to make lynching that bit harder for us.
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On May 11 2008 11:19 Plexa wrote:
now qrs, who is guilty from your list?
My list? Do you mean the showtime! list? No idea.
If you mean who do I think is guilty in general, I've already mentioned that my top suspects are sureshot, ninja, and clazziquai (in that order). Not much new to add there, sorry. The only person I somewhat suspect who is not already one of the main suspects is Puosu, but I'm hardly sure about him.
BTW, I'm not convinced of your reasoning that clues must apply to one person and only one, for the simple reason that Chuiu probably did not read through all 130 profiles before making his clues.
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And to add to that: The Wolf whittled GranDim down with every punch and eventually knocked him out on the door of the van. Every punch landed and did damage. In other words, the Wolf is still, after 10 days of Mafia, connecting with every shot he takes.
Meanwhile, Chuiu is getting desperate with the "Mr. Pink is a sadist" clue.
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Well, I respect your analysis, but it's not infallible, and for my part, I think that the evidence against those two is the strongest. I've already outlined the evidence against suresh0t several times; as for Mr. Blonde, the strongest piece of evidence is from Day 2: Mr. Blonde had braced himself on the ceiling and swooped down from above but there's also from Day 1: He jumped through the opening towards the door and was almost home free when he was cut off by Mr. Blonde, coming out of nowhere it seemed. from Day 5: said Mr. Blonde after dodging what was left of a door that flew at him. Fast reflexes, comes from nowhere, can brace himself on the ceiling: very ninjalike. OTOH, there are some days that don't seem to particularly fit, so I'm not 100% convinced of ninja, but enough to vote for him.
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On May 15 2008 00:50 suresh0t wrote:
QRS obviously hates me for fucking his sister or something.
You did what?!
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Wow, unforgiven is always a Mafia member. It must be his name.
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On May 18 2008 08:11 HeRoS)Pink wrote:ok this is going to far, about the 3 letters mafia, i meant to say *I know who he's and he have 3 letters in his name.* SureSh0t will be happy + Show Spoiler +qrs = The wolf
Quote : It requires a very unusual mind to undertake the analysis of the obvious.
The Wolf and Taipan Snake had followed his near suicidal jump and were on him quick. Taipan Snake automatically knocked him to the ground and proceeded to kick him, being unarmed at the time. The Wolf approached "Sorry Chuiu, I gotta do this I hope you understand" as he pulled out a gun and made his mark on Chuiu's head.
The Wolf interrupted him. "You just need to hit the right spot" he said as he threw the nail down the hallway, it landed square in the back of New104's head and he convulsed as he dropped to the ground, dying less then a minute later.
He met gaze with The Wolf who was carrying some more debris from the building. Caller rolled to his right trying to dodge an attack from The Wolf but wasn't fast enough and took a vicious blow to the chest. He rolled to the side and started searching around for a weapon of his own as he jumped up from the ground.
Last Romantic was driving around looking for a bar still open late night when he finally found one, or thought he did. The Wolf was waiting inside the cleverly disguised building and had a gun ready for ambush. As Last Romantic walked in he approached The Wolf and ordered a drink. The Wolf served him and a minute or two passed by before he realized the bar was completely empty except for him and The Wolf. Finally he got up and asked why there were no other customers. The Wolf pointed to the door where Eddie stood,
Eddie stopped him instead and pointed back at The Wolf. Finally The Wolf ended the charade and shot Last Romantic in the head.
The Wolf had been tracking his target for quite some time. His target, GranDim, had been driving around all over town in a white van. When he finally stopped at a gas station to get gas The Wolf got in position for the kill. He silently waited for GranDim to fill up his gas and pay for it then ambushed him right before he got back in his van. GranDim and The Wolf got in fist fight and it was soon obvious who was better trained for it. The Wolf whittled GranDim down with every punch and eventually knocked him out on the door of the van. To finish him off The Wolf searched the van for some drugs and gave GranDim overdoses of everything he could find. QED, what?
Care to explain in a bit more depth?
As for killing talkative townies, Mafia haven't been doing that so much this game, except for Plexa and MTF, who really were/are contributing a lot as far as deciphering clues goes. They also seem to be avoiding people on the Mandalor list (like me) for the most part, probably so as not to narrow the noose on those Mafia.
It's understandable that suresh0t wants to vote for me, since I've been voting for him for quite some time. Ace has wanted me dead since I made a couple of posts calling him out for incompetence, and HeRoS)Pink is half a troll, but looking for clues pointing at me (presumably they would point at my quote) does not turn up very much. That's because I'm not Mafia.
On May 18 2008 20:48 Plexa wrote:
anyone got his history?)
Araav's got everyone's history through April 19 or so in his blog. http://teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?id=69736
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Oh and suresh0t, keep trying to explain the Wolf's kills away: After arming himself properly the Wolf fire strait into butidigress's head killing him instantly.
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On May 20 2008 13:32 suresh0t wrote:
we know the wolf is accurate qrs...that seems a bit obvious to point at me. but if you don;t have another option lynch me and watch the green flow. that's all we need after all these fucking blues. how about we go find some red!
To be honest, I'm actually less convinced of you than I've been at any time. At first, several clues seemed to point at you (sig, picture, etc.) but recently, it's only been his accuracy, and like you say, that's a bit obvious to be pointing at you; maybe it's pointing at someone else.
The clues are still strong enough that I'm voting for you, but if you turn out green, I guess we'll have to find someone else to connect Mr. Sharpshooter with. (Shallow's current profile could fit the Wolf. I'm not sure if he's had that profile since the start of the game: he's been changing sigs and maybe profiles like socks since the game started. That alone is a little bit suspicious. So I guess if you aren't the Wolf, Shallow would be my next suspect.)
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OK, I'm willing to go along with Ace for this lynch, seeing as clazziquai was already highly suspected and he's only made himself more suspect with recent posts.
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On May 21 2008 01:04 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2008 12:48 Chuiu wrote:"...California Mountain Snake grabbed him by the neck and pulled him out and threw him to the ground. He pulled a metal disc and started swinging at Hollander's neck with it." Cali Mt. Snake's weapon of choice is revealed to be a sharp metal disc. Guy in my profile is wearing a beanie, 2 blades like a helicopter. They're different things. Looks to me that he has a point.
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I think it was determined a while ago that the code names of mafiosi were probably not clues, seeing as they all came from various Quentin Tarantino movies. The Wolf is from Pulp Fiction.
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On May 22 2008 11:09 L wrote:
Clazz, stop joining the mafia channel as plexa.
Dead man aren't supposed to speak, sorry.
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Wow, the night posts are getting shorter and shorter. Pretty soon we'll be down to stuff like
![[image loading]](http://i110.photobucket.com/albums/n99/chuiu/TLnight.png)
qrs
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On May 24 2008 02:20 Amber[LighT] wrote:Show nested quote +On May 22 2008 14:45 qrs wrote:Wow, the night posts are getting shorter and shorter. Pretty soon we'll be down to stuff like qrs oh i see what you did there...
Don't read too much into it. I didn't want to use any particular person's name, so I used mine.
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On May 25 2008 01:24 Camlito wrote:
Note: these interpretations are stretched, and I don’t know if there any good (I have lots of doubts). But right now the town seems fucked after the recent blue killings, so I may aswell try and contribute anyway I can.
Clue 5: Mr. Blonde and Cottonmouth were at AmorVincitOmnia's convenience store right before closing. They wanted everyones attention right away so Mr. Blonde charged through the front door, a move that shattered all the windows. Inside AmorVincitOmnia was cashing Alventenie's purchase and they both immediately looked at Mr. Blonde shocked at what just happened. Both Mr. Blonde and Cottonmouth ran towards them and stabbed each of them through the shoulders with a knife. Mr. Blonde had AmorVincitOmnia pinned up against a wall and Cottonmouth had Alventenie on another. AmorVincitOmnia pushed and shoved and tried to get free but Mr. Blonde stabbed three more knives into each arm and three into each leg. Then to finish him off he stabbed two more into AmorVincitOmnia's chest. Alventenie already exhausted from the day he had put up little resistance as Cottonmouth stabbed three knives in his other arm and each leg. Then stabbed five more in the shape of a pentagon and finally killed off Alventenie Ok this one is to obvious, they are mirroing eachothers movements and style as if its planned out.
Ok this one is to obvious, they are mirroing eachothers movements and style as if its planned out.
And for the record, some of these “mirror” interpretations mean the opposite, and some mean mirroring as in copying.
Ok going through profiles, the only mirror i see is nemY This one is absolutely a clue: Cottonmouth's defining trait is the 15-shot kill, and all of a sudden, when Mr. Blonde shares a scene with him, Mr. Blonde is doing it too. I noticed that myself, but I didn't know whom to connect it with: NemY seems like a good find.
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*eats hat*
Wow, I don't know how Plexa does it (did it). SpiritoftheTuna, OK, but I was so sure that Mr. Pink was RB or nightmare. My lousy voting record is becoming embarassing.
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On May 27 2008 08:55 Ace wrote:
I'm interested in knowing:
just why would you reveal that info right now? Clearly the Mafia already know about it, so the only people I'm revealing anything to are townies. What's wrong with that?
Besides, L basically revealed it already (posting while dead, I might add, but whatever.)
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On May 27 2008 16:45 Ace wrote:Remember who has been confirmed Mafia so far. We know Emp turned out innocent but look at the voting patterns and the reasons listed and make the connections. REMEMBER when we all said trusting Emp was bad and that we'd like to have RB as Pardoner right? Keep that in mind. And now look at how some suspected mafia and confirmed mafia voted: ... Show nested quote +qrs
I have to admit that the thought crossed my mind to run myself, but after seeing the explosion of posts on the first day--forget it. If the pace stays even close to this, I'll never be able to keep up. For that reason, I vote for randombum. He says that he'll have the time to spend on this game, and he proved it by sending out over 100 PMs.
... Look at the voting patterns especially toward the end and who voted for Randombum and the reasons (even though it was clear that Emp lost the race). It's important because I only got the Mayor vote by TWO votes. Mafia possibly were hoping enough people switched at the last minute to get randombum into office as Mayor. I'll say this much, of the two of us, me and Ace, one of us voted for randombum. The other one didn't. I'll bet you'll never guess which is which from Ace's post, but you can just look it up right here. http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?currentpage=9&topic_id=68177. LOL.
On May 27 2008 16:57 Ace wrote:
Also I'm sure any of you that has been following this game knows I have never been too fond of qrs. Yeah, that's all it comes down to. You're not too fond of me because I criticized you once.
It's not like I've been opposing you systematically all game. I've looked at the clues Plexa or MTF put out, voted when I was convinced, dissented when I didn't agree. Sometimes I've been wrong. True, I haven't been very good at analysis this game. I don't recall you contributing too much of that either.
The bottom line is, you are what Chuiu called the "superfluous mayor of the town" (the mayor in general, not you specifically). You have no authority. You have some use to the town as a guaranteed innocent. You had more use earlier on, when we still had blues. But there is no compulsion for us to autovote whomever you suspect. Your suspicions have been right sometimes, and sometimes been wrong. Just like the rest of us.
Why do I so often vote differently? Because I don't like herd voting. I signed up to play Mafia, not Simple Simon. It's a bit of a flaw in me--I sometimes take it too far in the other direction, but I've voted with the town when I agreed with the evidence. I was the first one to vote Mandalor with you, you might recall. More recently, I voted clazziquai.
Why did I defend LTT? Because I thought that he was innocent.
How did I find your list? By searching for it, same as everyone else.
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Although randombum's actions are a little suspicious, as far as the "bum" clues go, I believe they turned out to point to sidewinder/queasy, as Scorch and infundibulum point out here and here.
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On May 28 2008 05:58 Ace wrote:
And you've been against me EVEN when we were doing the right things. I don't think it matters if I mess up because every single time I have I've given reasons for why we have done things. Unlike you, majority of the town has listened to my plan because it's better than sitting there and complaining about how many Blues died or some random thing like you always do. Look at how the game is going - the town still has a major advantage over the mafia.
OK, I made a couple of bitchy posts after people messed up and a bunch of blues died who shouldn't have (not all your fault, as it turned out later). Afterwards I conceded that there was no point to posting like that, and since then I haven't. I don't always "sit there and complain about how many Blues died or some random thing".
Second, you absolutely haven't given reasons for why we have done things every single time. Often you have. Sometimes it's been "trust me". Sometimes you've been right. Sometimes you've been wrong. That's all moot now.
Third, what "plan" are you talking about? For the last Mafia week or so, the plan has been follow Plexa and co.'s analysis. Is that the plan you're taking credit for? It's turned out to be a good plan, I admit, and several times when I doubted Plexa, I turned out to be wrong.
Finally, when you say, "Unlike you, majority of the town has listened to my plan because it's better than sitting there and complaining," that's just ridiculous. The only "plan" we're following is to vote the people whom we suspect of being Mafia. About half the town is doing that, including me. The other half isn't voting, but what can you do. If "following a plan" means "voting only whom Ace tells you to vote", and "sitting there and complaining" means "voting anyone else", then no thank you, you can keep your plan.
You've been on my case for a long time now. I can't get upset at you for it, because I suppose I understand your being annoyed at me for criticising you, but it's been a long time since then, and you refuse to drop it. If any legitimate reason comes up to make me look like a mafioso, I'll try to address it; otherwise, I'm done responding to this.
Peace.
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On May 28 2008 16:26 Camlito wrote:
Hey shallow, i have a very difficult task, it may take many days digging up all the quotes but can you please report all your quote changes lol? you reported the first one then you haven't reported anymore, yeh... >.>
Yes, that's a bit suspicious, no?
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On May 29 2008 02:54 RtS)Night[Mare wrote:
it might be but we dont have any clue to tie to shallow It's not very easy to find clues to tie to someone whose profile details keep changing.
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On June 01 2008 10:23 Alethios wrote:
Could the undead stop posting about how they are now in heaven/hell? Thanks.
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1) Mafia had the list of roles already.
2) It's not much of a waste for them to hit veterans. They're going to have to hit them sooner or later to win, and it's not like town has more killing power the more people they have at any given time.
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The conjecture is that the spinning disc in your profile is California Mountain Snake's metal disc. Also, it's a little suspicious that L came back from the grave to defend you when you were accused of finding the list.
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On June 05 2008 11:01 ShaLLoW[baY] wrote:
I don't really have an argument as to why I shouldn't be suspected, but I'm not Mafia. I don't even understand why I'm being suspected to be honest, and I don't know why I'm Mafia on unsoundlogic's list. If there are clues that you think point to me, please tell me, but I'm 100% innocent.
The most suspicious thing about you in my opinion is that you change your profile details like socks. At the beginning you would document that, but as people stopped paying attention, you stopped doing that. Obviously, that makes it much harder to pin any clues on you, if there are any. Just the thing that a mafioso would want to do, and therefore the thing that no townie should do. Your current profile could connect to the Wolf (crying wolf, pumping full of lead). I don't know whether you've had that profile all game. If suresh0t isn't the Wolf, you are probably my next suspect.
FWIW, at the beginning of the game, you tossed around a bunch of accusations/suspicions, most of which have proven false. (wurm, nightmare, Ghar, Plexa, SoMuchBetter,fusionsdf).
As for NemY, I don't know about him, although I find his posts suspicious, but the main clue that Camlito fingered him for is undeniable: Cottonmouth is the 15-weapon guy--that theme appears every time he kills someone. One time Mr. Blonde appears with him, and suddenly, Mr. Blonde is killing with 15 weapons too. If it's not NemY's mirror, then it's something else, but that has to be a clue.
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On June 07 2008 02:29 Scorch wrote:
As for the "L defends Bockit" story: I defended Bockit too in that regard, simply because mod powers aren't required to find the list. Just search for your own name, you'll easily find it too. Bockit might have found the list, but it could've been anyone else just as likely. This means that I wouldn't take L rising from the grave into account at all. Don't let this influence your opinion about Bockit, neither positively nor negatively.
L defending Bockit is by far the strongest reason that I think he's Mafia. Yes, I know he was "defending the Mafia's honor"*, but put yourself in L's shoes: the game is coming down to the wire and the town is about to lynch an innocent suspect. Would you really rise from the grave to defend him? Or would you wait until after the game was over to set the record straight? I have a very hard time believing that L would go out of his way (and break the rules of the game) to help us avoid lynching an innocent.
*(not to mention that using mod powers in the game is at worst a gray area, whereas Mandalor's telling someone about the list when he was dead (according to Plexa) is a definite infraction)
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So who's next? My top suspects (in order) are:
NemY
suresh0t
shallow
ninja
Puosu
Reasons: NemY: mirror (Mr. Blonde's "mirror kills", particularly the 15-shot one: thanks Camlito); generally suspicious posting.
suresh0t: (various clues pointing at the Wolf, although the last couple appearances have not pointed at him as much)
shallow: (constant profile changes, a profile that currently may point at the Wolf)
ninja: (Maybe Mr. Blonde, but I'm much less sure of that now, maybe California Mountain Snake, but we're tentatively pegging Bockit as CMS, so at the moment, I don't actually suspect ninja that much. If NemY is green, maybe a different story.)
Puoso (rank speculation: perhaps his signature can be connected to Cottonmouth's collections)
Just my tuppence: what does the town think?
By the way, for anyone who wants it, the updated Mandalor list.
5/20 Mafia, if I counted right, so still one in four.+ Show Spoiler +ShaLLoW[baY]
qrs
ahrara_
ZBiR
unsoundlogic
BWdero
Scorch
nemY
suresh0t
Lysithea
Artanis[Xp]
Ninja4ever.
SoleSteeler
Jimtudor
GranDim
Alethios
0cz3c
iNfuNdiBuLuM
SoMuchBetter
Camlito
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I guess we should put ahrara on the suspicion list, since he's trying to get lynched, and if he's a townie that's kind of a lousy thing to do.
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On June 12 2008 01:19 suresh0t wrote:
Dear qrs
1Please tell me how the wolfs last like 3 kills connect with me please. I want to know, because I've been trying to figure it out, and as of right now I got nothing.
2Oh well you also have Ninja on there and I still think he is innocent (because we were both attempted scapegoats for mafia members).
3I'm not so sure about nemy, I could go either way. He is definitely the strongest suspect I think on your list.
4Shallow is just suspect on his changing profile and we don't know how Chuiu works, if he uses current profile or if he just uses the original. Or rather I don't know, I probably shouldn't speak for everyone.
5Puosu another one I don't know or haven't thought of.
6I think you may have 1 maximum 2 reds in there, I know I'm green and I still don't know how people are connecting me with mafia.
Love
Yours Truly, Suresh0t xoxo
1) I admitted that the last couple of kills didn't seem to point to you particularly. That's why you didn't top the list. Still, I don't think the Wolf has missed yet. You got a better suspect?
2) I also think ninja is innocent at this point, but if nemY is not Mr. Blonde or if Bockit was not CMS, he's still a possibility.
3) Me too; that's why I put him first.
4) Yeah.
5) Bit of a shot in the dark there, but couldn't find anyone better for Cottonmouth. No one else has either.
6) Look, it's not like any of the old clues went away all of a sudden. I guess we'll know more the next time we see the Wolf.
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Well, I was planning to vote for nemY (among other things, Camlito's tragic death immediately after pointing the finger at him is suspicious), but the Cicero connection has convinced me that there's an even stronger case against 0cz3c. That plus the weird defense he offers: even if I were mafia, which I'm not, it would not be beneficial for you, as my fellow townies, to kill me. I would clearly have been the least active mafia in the entire game.
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Whining about imbalance after you lose a game is just being a sore loser.
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On June 18 2008 04:42 randombum wrote:
I'll just say this since I am dead, but the numbers are stacked towards town. (number of days it would take mafia to kill town/win under BEST conditions vs number of days it took town to start getting mafia 75% of the time) That's stupid. It was town's great clue analysis (or more accurately, the analysis of a few hero townies) that allowed town to start hitting Mafia 75% of the time, not the game being stacked. Of course, that part of the game is up to the town: Mafia cannot control that part, except by killing townies who are good at analysis, and not killing suspects. (The Mafia hasn't been doing so well with that: I remember a whole bunch of times when suspects were cleared by being killed by the Mafia.) You could have used a pardon yourself, and extended the Mafia's life. Obviously if the town is super-accurate the numbers will be "stacked towards town"--otherwise, how could the town ever win?
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On June 22 2008 04:15 suresh0t wrote:
Plexa made it clear I'm not the Wolf
Stop saying that: it's irrelevant. Plexa is not God.
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On June 23 2008 20:42 Wysp wrote:
btw, all this came to light AFTER PLEXA'S death.
Actually, that's not true.
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What's with Amber[Light] and his abstaining for every single vote?
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On June 24 2008 03:40 suresh0t wrote:
I was thought to be tied to the electronic guy who sabotaged everything because i had a toolbox in my picture If anyone thought that, they don't think so now. The electronic guy was d.arkive.The nails go with the picture and that is linked to cottonmouth or the Wolf: both appeared in that scene, and the Wolf made the kill with the nails. OTOH, Cottonmouth seems to have a theme of using various collections of random weapons, so at this point, I tend to agree that the nails don't point at you. and then there is the accuracy of the wolf. And to add some that you haven't mentioned: The Wolf's apologeticness/reluctance to kill Chuiu and possibly LostRomantic connects with your signature. The Wolf's carrying a pile of debris out of a building may mean that he works in construction, connecting with your pic (I know it's weak, but do we have another explanation for the pile of debris?) So we have all these clues spread out on different mafia like multiple greens we lynched in the beginning and now we are reverting back to it after all the "leadership" is dead. You keep setting up these straw men. No one is saying you are anyone but the Wolf. "Clues" that point to a different mafioso are irrelevant.So GG it's been fun GG
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On June 24 2008 12:30 suresh0t wrote:
qrs you must feel good hehe
Sure. Although I can't say it came as a huge surprise.On June 24 2008 12:48 nemY wrote:
QRS (LOL YOU'RE SO FUCKING RETARDED, SAYING SURESH0T IS MAFIA AND VOTING FOR ME LOL) You were both Mafia. I can't vote for two people, eh?
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On June 26 2008 08:49 nemY wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2008 00:53 qrs wrote:
You were both Mafia. I can't vote for two people, eh? You still believe that now?
On June 26 2008 21:20 araav wrote:
qrs, what exactly we have against nemY?
In terms of actual clues, the main piece of evidence is Camlito's connection of Mr. Blonde to a mirror (link). Not all of it was compelling, but I found this one pretty convincing: Camlito wrote:
Clue 5: Mr. Blonde and Cottonmouth were at AmorVincitOmnia's convenience store right before closing. They wanted everyones attention right away so Mr. Blonde charged through the front door, a move that shattered all the windows. Inside AmorVincitOmnia was cashing Alventenie's purchase and they both immediately looked at Mr. Blonde shocked at what just happened. Both Mr. Blonde and Cottonmouth ran towards them and stabbed each of them through the shoulders with a knife. Mr. Blonde had AmorVincitOmnia pinned up against a wall and Cottonmouth had Alventenie on another. AmorVincitOmnia pushed and shoved and tried to get free but Mr. Blonde stabbed three more knives into each arm and three into each leg. Then to finish him off he stabbed two more into AmorVincitOmnia's chest. Alventenie already exhausted from the day he had put up little resistance as Cottonmouth stabbed three knives in his other arm and each leg. Then stabbed five more in the shape of a pentagon and finally killed off Alventenie.
Ok this one is too obvious, they are mirroring each others' movements and style as if it's planned out.
Specifically, Cottonmouth has been the only one killing with 15 weapons a night--until Mr. Blonde shows up with him.
To that, I'll add a weaker clue: Mr. Blonde's whole "out of nowhere" theme that some were connecting with Ninja early on may connect with nemY's profile quote ("~But I don't know where you are now~").
Circumstantial evidence: Camlito was killed soon after he presented his nemY theory. We know that the Mafia likes to kill the good clue-analysts (for good reason). Was Camlito getting too close to the truth?
And finally, this wouldn't hold up in a court of law, but I just find nemY's posts suspicious. I know that he and suresh0t were at each other's throats near the end, but IMO that was just a desperate Mafia ploy. Split the camps, like Jacob in the Bible: And it shall be that if the townies fall upon one mafioso and smite him that the other mafioso shall be for a remnant.
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On June 27 2008 01:48 araav wrote:
qrs, that really may be him, but given an active townie (at least nemY votes) and an inactive (str), I'd go after str.
araav, I don't see what you mean. nemY may be town or he may be Mafia. If he is town, his vote helps the town insofar as it can cancel out one mafia vote. If he is mafia, his vote hurts the town to the same degree: it can cancel out one town vote. Moreover, since the mafia has perfect information whereas the town does not, a mafia vote is arguably more useful than a town vote (i.e. theoretically if it came down to the wire and the mafia was close to swaying the vote, an extra townie vote might help the town (if he voted for the right person), whereas an extra mafia vote would certainly help the mafia.) So I don't see why nemY's voting should make a difference.
Wysp, I plan to vote for nemY next day (assuming continued health, naturally), unless you can give us a hint as to how this plan might work. Or if it's dangerous to post it in the thread, you can PM me. Or if you don't trust me, that's OK, but don't expect me to trust the plan either.
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On June 27 2008 02:57 Wysp wrote:
On another note: I'd just ignore most of what qrs is says. He's been a cunt and a shit disturber most of the game.
Oh, have I? I've refused to take things on faith; that's true enough. I've been right some of the time and wrong some of the time. I've been active throughout the game, unlike you. I won't stoop to insulting you back, but keep your foul language to yourself, please, or at least out of the thread.
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On June 27 2008 13:29 Wysp wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2008 03:31 qrs wrote:On June 27 2008 02:57 Wysp wrote:
On another note: I'd just ignore most of what qrs is says. He's been a cunt and a shit disturber most of the game. Oh, have I? I've refused to take things on faith; that's true enough. I've been right some of the time and wrong some of the time. I've been active throughout the game, unlike you. I won't stoop to insulting you back, but keep your foul language to yourself, please, or at least out of the thread. this is the cuntish shit disturbing I'm talking about. I'm a confirmed townie, and despite your best efforts mafia have been hung. If I tell you shit (because YOU aren't confirmed,) the operation could very well go foul. If I publicly announce it, it goes foul 100%. Use your brain. You consistantly try to lead people to the worse choice. Do I think its because you're mafia? Not necessarily, you could just be 'dull' (sugar coated enough?)
Oh can it, Wysp. "Despite my best efforts?" "Consistently try to lead people to the worst choice?" You mean like trying to get them to vote for suresh0t for about 10 days in a row? Or you mean like trying to stop them from voting for wurm when he was a possible medic and not a confirmed mafioso? Or like pointing out when MTF was on the wrong track with Cottonmouth's numbers?
Heck, I don't need to defend myself from you. You've done nothing all game but hide underground. Finally at the end of the game you step out as someone else's mouthpiece and you think that that makes you a bigshot. When you do say something that you come up with yourself, you get your facts wrong. Go ahead and back up something you say: about me, about nemY, I don't care. Show that my posts have consistently been advocating the wrong choice. Or show that nemY is a townie.
Or, if you can't do any of that, just stuff it.
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At that point, nemY was my #1 suspect. suresh0t was my #2. (link because if I don't back up everything I say, someone will jump on me )
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On June 27 2008 23:38 Wysp wrote:
qrs, its been the entire game you've been bad and you know it. Its almost as easy to click a random page to see you causing shit.
LOL, you're the one causing it now, aren't you? I'm being fairly restrained while someone who hasn't even participated all game slings insults at me.
If you seriously feel the need to press your point about how "the entire game I've been bad", go ahead and back it up. Otherwise, go back into your hole, since you have nothing worth saying. Don't be a hypocrite.
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@ Wysp: OK, at least most of that post had a reasonable tone, unlike your others. I'll respond to those parts:
-Of course I believe that you're a townie. I also think that some of the analysis that you posted was good (e.g. the case for str). When did I ever say otherwise? What I did say was that I planned to vote for nemY. When asked, I gave the reasons why I thought that he was Mafia.
-The only thing I said that might fall under the heading of "mistrusting you" is this plan you talk about. This is true: I don't like taking plans like this on trust. First of all, follow-the-leader is not a fun game to play. I don't mind going along with someone if I know why I'm voting, but if he just says, "vote for whom I say," it's a different story. Second of all, how do I know whether the plan is a good plan or not? I know nothing about it.
-I didn't expect you necessarily to post the plan in the thread. Without knowing anything about it, how would I know whether it could be foiled? I didn't expect you necessarily to PM me, but since there have been no real suspicions raised against me this game, I thought you might trust me. Or not. That's up to you, as my trusting your plan is up to me.
I never said nemY is an innocent Your exact words were there is a very low chance that nemY is mafia. No explanation given.
As for the rest of your post, I'll leave you the last word; maybe that way we can lay this to rest.
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On June 28 2008 17:25 nemY wrote:
Expect a post from qrs soon about how ShaLLoW[baY]'s death is a mirror reversal of Bockit's lynching. I feel so...predictable.
edit: just because nemY points it out doesn't mean it isn't true. It is a mirror kill. Think about that.
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Some useful lists:
- The list of people who voted for randombum:
+ Show Spoiler +Dr.Dragoon G.s)NarutOs Sadir (On Chuiu's list but apparently not actually a player) fanatacistBockitBWdero Ninja4ever. So no fek Lysithea JeeJeeGrayAreaMetaiNfuNdiBuLuM Acesuresh0tMynockHollandercrazie-penguinShowtime!MTFGeneralStanLLTTFrench_ToastUnforgiven_ve0cz3cBlindAlbinoclazziquaiQueasy
- The reduced Mandalor list (from
Wysp's recent post):+ Show Spoiler +qrs
ahrara_
ZBiR
BWdero
nemY
Lysithea
Ninja4ever.
SoleSteeler
Romance_us
NatsuTerran
Pangolin
iNfuNdiBuLuM
SoMuchBetter
2/13 (~15.4%) people on the Mandalor list are Mafia, as opposed to 2/16 (12.5%) (when you subtract the veterans) of the non-Mandalors.
- The Showtime list actually has the highest percentage of Mafia by now (from nemY's post, in turn from an earlier post of Plexa's):
CDRdude
nemY
qrs
iNfuNdiBuLuM
ahrara
1/5 Mafia (20%). Those are our best odds by a quite a bit. It's also a tiny list, so it makes a lot of sense to focus on it, because if we mess up and kill a townie, the odds get even higher in our favor. (Yes, that means kill me, if you think I'm the best bet on that list. I don't think I am, though.) As everyone knows, I think the best bet on that list is nemY by far: Camlito pointed out the mirror theme for Mr. Blonde, which showed up again in last night's kill. Camlito's death immediately after pointing this out speaks volumes.
- Finally, another group that we should look hard at is the people on both the randombum list and the Mandalor list. There are three of these:
BWdero
Ninja4ever
iNfuNdiBuLuM.
Personally, I'm willing to discount iNfuNdiBuLuM: he appears on the Showtime list as well, and I'm convinced that nemY is the mafioso on that list. Ninja4ever has appeared on suspect lists and been closely scrutinized since the beginning, but nothing much was ever turned up on him. He was an early suspect for Mr. Blonde, who I now believe to be nemY.
That leaves BWdero. He's flown under the radar, for the most part: after all, his profile doesn't contain much to link clues with. It's one of those profiles that must be frustrating to anyone trying to make clues for Mafia...
Talking of frustrating, it's hard to believe that we haven't found Cottonmouth yet. Early on we connected him to the number 15, and that number kept appearing night after night in the number of weapons Cottonmouth uses. Yet we have not been able to find anyone to link it to...
But we were speaking of BWdero. Indeed, his profile is frustrating. Almost nothing there. A country of origin: the Netherlands. And two dates:
Friday, 15th of February 2008
October 15, 1989
I rest my case.
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Summary: I'd go along with a vote for either nemY or BWdero.
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The Case Against BWderoOn July 01 2008 14:36 nemY wrote:
You do realize my bday is on the 15th as well right?
So is Wysp's lol.
Here's how I see it. Suppose for argument's sake that BWdero is Mafia, and put yourself in Chuiu's place. You have to write a clue for this guy. His name has no apparent meaning. He has no public profile, and no signature. The only information in his profile is: 1) His country of origin, 2) the date he joined, and 3) his date of birth. (The stuff about post counts etc. is subject to constant change.) Somehow you have to come up with a clue from these facts.
There's one thing that jumps out at me from this extremely bare profile: a minor coincidence: both dates in the profile are the 15th of a month (unlike you and Wysp, nemY). In the absence of anything else to base a clue on, I'm going to go with the number 15 as the theme of this mafioso.
Does this seem far-fetched to you? Then ask yourself what you would do if you were trying to write a clue that pointed at BWdero. Can you come up with anything better?
Take into account as well that we've known about the "15" clue for a long time, and it has been confirmed every night that Cottonmouth appears. The types of weapons do not appear to be a clue: they are constantly changing. Chuiu seems to like finding new and exotic weapons for his men. The only thing that stays the same is their number: 15. Our best analysts were not able to decipher this clue before they died: Plexa, MTF, and everyone else all went to their graves without ever finding out who Cottonmouth was. The clue must point at someone, and there are less and less candidates with each passing day. If it doesn't point at BWdero, then at whom does it point: someone whom everyone has missed?
So much for the clue-based evidence: now for the circumstantial evidence. To be fair to all parties concerned, BWdero did link Sidewinder to Queasy, very early on in the game, a link which turned out to be correct. Make of that what you will. On the other hand, there's quite a bit of circumstantial evidence against him, as well:
We've already seen that the randombum list harbors an enormous amount of Mafia. In fact, more than half the Mafia that we've caught so far had voted for randombum, and more than a third of the votes for randombum (and counting) have already proven to be those of mafiosi. Clearly the Mafia took this election seriously. Anyone who voted for randombum has a black mark against them from the beginning. You are judged by the company you keep, and so on.
But OK, simply voting for randombum does not make it a certainty that someone is Mafia. Several innocents voted for him as well--I did myself, at first, although I later switched my vote. However, if you have a look at araav's excellent blog listing all the statements of everyone in the game (up until the end of April), you will find that BWdero went further than most in advocating randombum. Some quotations: + Show Spoiler +I voted for randombum. I voted for him because I thought his mass pm was a nice touch. Also CDRdude pointed out he had a 100% voting accuracy in the last game. This plus mayor voting powers=dead mafia. Randombums mass PM would be suspicious. But he sent it before roles were handed out so we know that it is not a mafia ploy. And he does have a spotless voting record last game. Although his participation could have been a bit higher.
Ghar is on my suspect list, and others seem to distrust him aswell. So I am wary of putting him in a position of power.
Araav has a conservative double lynch platform. Something I find counterproductive. We should lynch early and often.
Empyrean, well, I don't trust his "I am a detective". Why would a detective make himself a target so early in the game? Seems like mafia shenanigans to me.
All in all, Randombum seems like the best choice of the four.
Any thoughts on this? Out of all mayor candidates right now. I prefer ace and randombum. Ace has a great plan and obviously knows what hes doing. No mafia would do what he is doing. And we know for a FACT randombum began his campaign with the best of intentions. And I find myself agreeing alot with the both of them.
Either one as mayor and the other as pardonner is fine with me.
In fact, BWdero was so enthusiastic in putting down the other mayoral candidates that Ace called him on it. He hastily backed down: On March 19 2008 01:50 BWdero wrote:Show nested quote +
On March 19 2008 01:39 Ace wrote:
I don't understand why anyone would suspect Ghar.
Even worse, BWdero why are you suspecting him just because others are?
We barely have any clues, and he hasn't done anything through his posts that can target him as Mafia.
Please people, lets not get into the practice of bandwagon suspicion so early.
Fair enough, I suspect him because someone linked a clue to him and others seemed suspicious. I agree that this is no grounds for lynching him or even accusing him of being mafia. It is far too early for that. I simply wish to be on the safe side when it comes to electing a mayor.
Maybe you're still not impressed. After all, it's perfectly possible for someone to be enthusiastic but wrong. I've certainly been that more than once in this game.
But let's take this in the context of the whole game. I've posted a lot in this thread, and although I've been wrong several times, I've also been right. More to the point, I've continued to post, sometimes at length. BWdero, though--he seems to have lost his enthusiasm fairly early. His posts trail off after page 106. This is all the stranger when you consider his first couple of posts in the thread:+ Show Spoiler +Posted in night7/main_page.010 On March 14 2008 22:03 BWdero wrote:Yes a new mafia game, and i'm in this time! This is gonna do wonders for my post count. On March 15 2008 01:43 BWdero wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2008 00:17 Falcynn wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2008 22:03 BWdero wrote:Yes a new mafia game, and i'm in this time! This is gonna do wonders for my post count. Just make sure you're active >.> Don't worry, I will participating in this thread regularly.
All in all, nemY, I don't think you are doing yourself any favors by defending this guy.
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On July 02 2008 09:13 nemY wrote:Obviously I can't unconvince you of your mistakes qrs, but please do take a second to analyze my information ok? I never said that BWdero was not mafia, I merely pointed out the fact that Chuiu is unlikely to use information that appears in multiple characters. You say there are no clues related to his name? How about just "Dero" then seeing as how BW can easily be interpreted as "Brood Wars"? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeroI poured over this content already and found nothing that could specifically tie Cottonmouth to BWdero. It should be noted in one post that Cottonmouth was dressed "shabbily"... another clue I see as baring no connection to BWdero. Regardless of this, I don't discount him given the plethora of circumstantial evidence mounted against him, I just feel there are stronger suspects at the moment... mainly Scorch as Mr. Blond (which once again no one has yet to comment on  ) I was going to make another long post, but seeing as no one even cares enough to vote anymore, let alone post (you don't count, nemY: I'm talking about townies), it's not worth it. Briefly, then:
I never said that BWdero was not mafia, I merely pointed out the fact that Chuiu is unlikely to use information that appears in multiple characters.
Stop willfully misunderstanding me. You pointed out that the 15th of a month for a birthday appeared for multiple characters. I clearly said that BWdero has the 15th for both birthday and joined date. Find someone else in the game who fits that and I'll start listening to you.
You say there are no clues related to his name? How about just "Dero" then seeing as how BW can easily be interpreted as "Brood Wars"?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dero
You're right about that: my bad. That does slightly reduce the strength of my case against him, but I still feel that it is a strong case.
It should be noted in one post that Cottonmouth was dressed "shabbily"... another clue I see as baring no connection to BWdero.
Well, actually, now that you've linked to that wikipedia page, dressed "shabbily" would fit in rather well with the Australian slang for "derelict person".
Finally, I'd like to urge everyone to vote for someone on the Showtime! list next lynch, so that we don't have another useless lynch like yesterday's. The showtime! list offers the best odds by far, and if we somehow hit a townie (i.e. if we don't lynch nemY), the odds will shoot up even higher, so it won't be a completely wasted lynch. I think that the obvious lynch from there is nemY (mirror kills, out of nowhere--"I don't know where you are", doing his best to defend BWdero, etc.) but if you don't agree, lynch someone else on the list. Lynch me, if you want. But lynch someone from that list. And if he comes up green, look at nemY again. And nemY, like I said to suresh0t: if you're actually a townie, I apologize in advance.
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On July 04 2008 09:44 nemY wrote:
Apology accepted faggot
we'll see.
and showtime, you're hardly one to talk. Go back to being dead.
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we'll see at the end of the game then
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On July 04 2008 18:12 nemY wrote:
Perhaps you can explain your reasoning to me and everyone else as to why you are so sure I'm Mr. Blonde. I'd really like to get this settled once and for all.
All right, I'll try.
1) You say that the "mirror kills" are not exact duplications of each other. I don't buy that argument. As it is, the essential things are mirrored: e.g. the number of knives, which is Cottonmouth's signature. True, the pattern isn't mirrored, but the pattern doesn't seem to be important anyway--Cottonmouth himself doesn't follow any particular pattern from night to night. Similarly, not all of the details of shallow's kill correspond to bockit's but the central feature (the rake up the rectum) is the same. If Chuiu made these kills exact duplicates, down to every detail, the clue would be too obvious.
2) You point out that not all of the clues on all the days can be connected to you. That's true enough, but I haven't seen them connected to anyone else either. You don't connect the glass-smashing to HotZhot, for instance. Even suresh0t, who we were both pretty sure was Mafia--I don't know how all of the clues were meant to finger him. Chuiu's ways are subtle, and we cannot hope to fathom all of them. If someone made a good case for someone else as Mr. Blonde, and he managed to connect all of the clues to him, I'd be listening.
3) You say that when the phrase "out of nowhere" appeared, you didn't have "I don't know where you are now" in your profile. Maybe that's true, but we only have your word for it. The post from araav's that you point to only lists profile information including signatures, but not the "public profile".
4) You point out that the Camlito thing is circumstantial, which certainly it is. Part of the reason that the Camlito kill stands out to me is that he was on the Mandalor list, which the Mafia had good reason to avoid as much as possible. But of course this is not conclusive.
5) You point out that you were against suresh0t for quite a long time--longer than I had remembered, actually. I'll concede that that does reduce the suspicion against you to a degree.
6) The suspicious posts? I guess I shouldn't have said anything about that unless I could clarify what I meant by it. Basically, it was just your generally schizophrenic posting style, going between kinda useless posts like no map yo~
MH off
18 nom~
ssi bal se ke
No Oblivion please TOO EASY
GG BITCHES
ALL YOU HATERS SAYING I'M MAFIA ( JTAN, QRS (LOL YOU'RE SO FUCKING RETARDED, SAYING SURESH0T IS MAFIA AND VOTING FOR ME LOL), BUGZ, AND OF COURSE SURESH0T) CAN SUCK MY FUCKING DICK.
BITCHES
LIKE I'M FUCKING MAFIA NOW. ANYONE ELSE THAT'S MAFIA WANNA POINT THE FINGER AT ME? HOW ABOUT YOU JTAN? and posts that were actually somewhat helpful to the town. Anyway, I'm not trying to convince anyone that your posts should sound suspicious--that was just my own reaction.
7) In any case, I think that the town should lynch someone from the showtime list next time, whether it's you, me, or someone else for the simple reasons that
a) at this point it offers the best odds of getting a mafioso
b) if we hit a townie, the odds go up much higher of getting the mafioso the next time, since the list is so small
c) if we kill the mafia on that list, we immediately gain some information about who is innocent (as opposed to the other lists, which each have two mafiosi left on them).
8) I'm going to leave it at that. Guilty or innocent, nemY, I shall harass you no longer. I'm tired of being Cassandra.
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On July 07 2008 01:52 nemY wrote:
Really? So far a stubborn townie and a probable mafia candidate voting for me?
Anyways, I'll vote to lynch BWdero.
He will turn up red, I actually believe you (qrs) on this one, and I encourage you to change your vote. HotZhot is Mr. Blonde without a doubt. Haste and arrogance fit him oh so well. Well, as I said, I'm willing to vote for him as well. Since there are almost no other votes in either direction, I'll change my vote for now to BWdero. If he gets lynched and flips red, I suppose I'll need to reconsider my suspicions of nemY, although I don't think that the case against HotZhot is nearly as strong.
As zBir said, please vote, everyone. Vote for whomever you want to, but vote for someone. The vote counts are getting ridiculous.
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This whole discussion is ridiculous: the game is still going on. True, many people aren't voting, but the town will lynch someone today. How anyone could think that this translates into a Mafia win is beyond me.
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On July 08 2008 05:57 Showtime! wrote:
qrs, it should be painfully obvious.
No, it's not obvious at all. If there ever comes a time when no one votes at all, then it will be time to declare a Mafia win. Not before.
I wish that the dead would respect Chuiu's rule about no posting. I don't think you've ever done anything in this thread but troll, Showtime. I can't recall a single post of yours that was worth reading.
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Granted, it's a possibility, but it's hardly certain at this point. Some of the inactives may be Mafia; also some people who were active recently may return. Besides, Chuiu has already indicated that he plans to replace the inactives--which does not compromise the game, as it was a rule from the beginning, albeit unenforced.
On July 08 2008 06:17 Showtime! wrote:
Before I got killed off, everything I did was behind the scenes and there is a reason for it. oh ok showtime!'s subsequently-edited comment about whether a particular person is or is not mafia Surely this is not only breaking the rule about the dead talking, but utterly flouting it.
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It would be nice if the dead could finally stop posting, seeing as their posts are taking up the majority of the thread.
As for the lynch...not much to say. I was a big advocate of lynching nemY for a while, which makes me look suspicious of course. At the very end, I started having second thoughts, which is why I kept my vote on BWdero. I'm not going to say that I became convinced that nemY was innocent, because I wasn't at all, but maybe I went down from being 90% sure of his guilt to 50% sure. The reason: skimming through some of his old posts and votes, I saw that nemY actually had a pretty good record of advocating/voting for the lynch of mafiosi, even before there was a real bandwagon for them. He had been voting suresh0t from the beginning. On the other hand, when I looked back to suresh0t's lynch, I saw infundibulum defending him. Infundibulum had voted for randombum as well. So maybe infundibulum was our man? But I hadn't seen any clues that pointed to him, and there were clues that pointed at nemY. In any case, nemY was on the Showtime! list, probably our best place to lynch from. So I said nothing.
Anyway, the silver lining of nemY's death is that the Showtime! list goes down to 3 townies, one mafioso. If we plow ahead with that list, we're likely to get the mafioso within a lynch or two (50% chance, even with random lynches). Here's the list:
- qrs: I'm not going to deny that some of my posts have made me look suspicious: specifically, my recent advocating of nemY's lynch, and my championing of LTT. On the other hand, I also was an early advocate for lynching suresh0t, and there aren't really any clues pointing at me. If someone wants to lynch me, I'm not complaining: I'll have brought it on myself, and besides, lynching even a townie from the showtime list will help the town somewhat. Still, I suggest lynching BWdero before me. I made a case for him here and here, which nemY agreed was fairly strong. If he flips red, that may go some way towards proving my innocence, since I was the first to bring up him as a serious suspect (IIRC). If he flips green, then I will go quietly to the gallows.
- ahrara: I don't think that anyone has brought up evidence against him. Wysp wanted to lynch him earlier, I believe because of posts that he made saying things like "I am Mafia". Edit: link
- infundibulum: I don't know of evidence against him. People were trying to link him to California Mountain Snake a long time ago, but that was clearly wrong. He voted for randombum for mayor, which looks bad. randombum wanted to lynch him, which looks good. He defended suresh0t before he died, which looks bad.
- CDRdude: I think MoC wanted to lynch him a while ago, for some reason. Edit: after looking back: both CDRdude and jtan were connected to a possible lurker theme of Mr. Blue. (link) The lurker hypothesis is that much stronger at this point, by the way, considering that Mr. Blue has been lurking for the last several Mafia kills, even though there are only a few mafiosi left.
Also: araav's case for CDRdude, although it should be noted that CDRdude did not actually vote for randombum but for Ace.
That's just off the top of my head, not a thorough listing of the evidence or anything. I think that the next lynch should either be someone from the above list (gives us the best odds by far, odds go up even more if we hit a townie, if we kill the mafioso, then we have three more guaranteed innocents) or possibly BWdero. The case for BWdero is in the first two links above. The only thing to add to those posts is that nemY pointed out that dero does have several meanings, which I hadn't realized. One of them is Aussie slang for a "derelict person", which could fit with Cottonmouth's being dressed "shabbily".
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in any case, the only people who should be able to call this a draw are the people who are still playing. I guess Chuiu could put that up for a vote.
For next lynch I'll still vote for BWdero, suspected of being Cottonmouth as per these posts + the connection between "dressed shabbily" and "dero: Australian slang for derelict person".
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On July 11 2008 17:06 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
^ word...lets restart or Chuiui should find a partner and update everyday He does have a partner--or did: Dapper Dan. Whatever happened to him?
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Collating some information. The remaining mafiosi are presumed to be Blonde, Orange, and Blue.
Clues
Day 1: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Blonde] +Great, DapperDan thought, as Sidewinder knocked over Mr. Red and Mr. Black. He jumped through the opening towards the door and was almost home free when he was cut off by Mr. Blonde, coming out of nowhere it seemed. He rammed into DapperDan knocking him to the ground.
+ Show Spoiler [Mr. Blue] +Mr. Blue got in the last word, before they finished up their little meeting, and said "Lets just hope the right mayor gets elected, that would speed things up as the town declares martial law." They all nodded in agreement, but no one knew how the elections tomorrow would turn out.
+ Show Spoiler [unidentified] +He almost made it out until finally someone pumped DapperDan's back full of lead. [
Day 2:
+ Show Spoiler [Mr. Blonde] +Over at casa Mynock he was frying himself a late night snack and watching a rerun of the news from earlier that night. He turned around to get something from his fridge when he noticed the lights out in his living room. With great care he crept into the room and searched for the lamp. It was moved onto the table in the center of the room. He switched it on to reveal the man known as Mr. Blonde. Mr. Blonde had braced himself on the ceiling and swooped down from above diving straight into Mynock. As they fell to the ground Mynock struggled to get away, he bashed Mr. Blonde in the face with his elbow as he turned to the right and climbed up only to meet gaze with Mr. Brown. They traded glares and Mynock dodged to the left and headed up his stairs not clearly deciphering the yells that came from behind him or caring. He tried to find the shotgun he had stashed in his closet but only found a smiley in its place. He panicked as he realized his only line of defense against two men was gone and he just about surrendered as Mr. Blonde appeared in the room with the shotgun, Mr. Brown just behind him. He dived toward Mr. Blonde in effort to tackle him but Mynock's attack was cut short as he ate a mouthful of buckshot.
Day 3:
+ Show Spoiler [Mr. Orange] +as he was dialing he noticed the phone line had been cut.... Mr. Orange came down with a pair of wire clippers in hand and bashed Dinmsab on the back with them. Dinmsab used the momentum to dive forward instead of fall and regained his balance after a roll...
Day 4: N/A
Day 5:
+ Show Spoiler [Mr. Blonde] +Mr. Blonde and Mr. White got out of their car, the rest of their hit squad parked on the other side of the building. They had arrived at an office building where they noticed a group of people always worked late. Sure enough there were some cars parked around them. "When is d.arkive supposed to do it?" asked Mr. White, as he leaned against the car and stared at the building in expectation. "I don't know, they just said to wait for their signal" responded Mr. Blonde as he walked a bit closer to the building to get a better look. He could see d.arkive running through some corridors looking for someone, anyone. He found Hittegods. d.arkive ran towards Hittegods as he was examining some photos and hit a button. An explosion ripped apart nearly half of the building and it sent everyone outside ducking for cover as debris flew all over. "Holy shit! I guess we're supposed to go in and find the rest of them now?" said Mr. Blonde after dodging what was left of a door that flew at him. "I don't think we have to" said Mr. White as he pointed at some people getting out of the good half of what was left of the building.
They decided on the first person they saw, xDark.Carnivalx. Mr. Blonde jetted towards him and knocked him to the ground with a punch square in the jaw. xDark.Carnivalx was dazed and still disoriented and shocked from the explosion, but he managed to stumble to his feet only to get kicked down again. The adrenaline was rushing but xDark.Carnivalx was getting frustrated, he looked around for something to use as a weapon and found a shattered pipe. He grabbed it and swung at Mr. Blonde, forcing him to back off and provide time for xDark.Carnivalx to get off the ground. But just as soon as he did Mr. White smashed another pipe laying around in the back of xDark.Carnivalx's head. Another couple blows and xDark.Carnivalx was dead.
Day 6:
+ Show Spoiler [Mr. Blue] +Things were still not quiet. Joe, Mr. Blue, and California Mountain Snake found aZnvaLiaNce working very late this evening. They intruded into the office buildings he was at and quickly found him doing repetitive boring paperwork in his drab cubicle. Mr. Blue pulled out the secret weapon he always wanted to kill someone with, a chainsaw. He tugged on the chord to get it started and aZnvaLiaNce shot up from his seat instantly and turned around to see the three men standing at the doorway. Mr. Blue lunged toward him aiming for his chest but aZnvaLiaNce dodged to the side and screamed out in pain as the chainsaw shredded down the side of his arm. Mr. Blue went in for another attack but this time aZnvaLiaNce was quicker and dived past Mr. Blue as he broke the chain of the saw on the metal part of the cubicle wall. Joe gave Mr. Blue a thumbs up for effort as he grabbed and held onto aZnvaLiaNce from behind. Joe kept a tight grip as California Mountain Snake took out his own weapon of choice. He sliced clean through aZnvaLiaNce in his chest, his gut, his arms and legs and pretty soon aZnvaLiaNce was a bloody mess, and they left him there to bleed out and die knowing he couldn't do a thing to save himself in the condition he was in.
Day 7:
+ Show Spoiler [Mr. Blue] +Mr. Blue was first up, and he was outside the house of fusionsdf. He noticed him in the living room and decided to try to sneak in from the back. All windows locked he tried the back door. When he was left with no other option he decided to kick in the door which alerted fusionsdf. He ran to the back of his house to see Mr. Blue coming in. fusionsdf knew exactly what was going on and grabbed an umbrella that was sitting by the door. He stabbed at Mr. Blue and flailed at him trying to fight him off but Mr. Blue evaded the blows and grabbed hold of the umbrella and yanked it out of fusionsdf's hands. He broke the handle hitting fusionsdf over the head with it and discarded it. fusionsdf dived forward and tackled Mr. Blue to the ground but Mr. Blue shoved him to the side and quickly got up. He grabbed up the umbrella again and stabbed down at fusionsdf. The tip was enough to do severe damage to fusionsdf, and he stabbed through his chest as if it were nothing. Pretty soon fusionsdf was dead from the beating.
+ Show Spoiler [Mr. Blonde] +G.s)NarutO was doing monk things in his monk place with his monk friends when he decided it was late and he wanted to go to sleep. On the way to his room he encountered Mr. Blonde. Mr. Blonde mocked G.s)NarutO for his failed attempts at helping the town and then pulled out a gun to kill him. G.s)NarutO wasn't ready to give up on life completely though and thought he could redeem himself by taking out this man for the town. He charged towards Mr. Blonde and tried to grab his gun but Mr. Blonde was a bit faster to respond and shot him twice in the leg. He finished it by shooting G.s)NarutO in the head and made his escape through a window before getting caught by a horde of monks.
Day 9:
+ Show Spoiler [Mr. Blue] +There was no plan. Five mafia set out tonight to get revenge for those they had lost. MTF was cruising along looking for a friend he had to give a ride home for. What he found was not normal to his eyes. Two men, Eddie and Mr. Orange were holding a man to the ground with their legs and pulling as hard as they could on his arms. MTF screeched to a stop and got out to help the man but it was too late and blood gushed all over the sidewalk as ~OpZ~ was literally disarmed. He gasped in horror and turned in retreat but found Mr. Blue in his way. MTF panicked, feeling his life in serious danger, and plowed through Mr. Blue toward his car. MTF was almost there when a flying object met contact with his neck and severed his head right off.
+ Show Spoiler [Mr. Blonde] +Mr. Blonde and Cottonmouth were at AmorVincitOmnia's convenience store right before closing. They wanted everyones attention right away so Mr. Blonde charged through the front door, a move that shattered all the windows. Inside AmorVincitOmnia was cashing Alventenie's purchase and they both immediately looked at Mr. Blonde shocked at what just happened. Both Mr. Blonde and Cottonmouth ran towards them and stabbed each of them through the shoulders with a knife. Mr. Blonde had AmorVincitOmnia pinned up against a wall and Cottonmouth had Alventenie on another. AmorVincitOmnia pushed and shoved and tried to get free but Mr. Blonde stabbed three more knives into each arm and three into each leg. Then to finish him off he stabbed two more into AmorVincitOmnia's chest. Alventenie already exhausted from the day he had put up little resistance as Cottonmouth stabbed three knives in his other arm and each leg. Then stabbed five more in the shape of a pentagon and finally killed off Alventenie.
Day 10:
+ Show Spoiler [Mr. Orange] +Mr. Orange had the help of Eddie as he went after Vharox. They were following behind Vharox as he was leaving a bar late at night. Once Vharox got his door open Eddie came from behind and grabbed him in restraint. Mr. Orange smashed an empty beer bottle over Vharox's head and it shattered into pieces and made Vharox flinch back in pain. He broke free of Eddie and charged into Mr. Orange knocking him on his side. Eddie tried to restrain Vharox again but had no luck as he fought him back. Vharox started inching his way to his cell phone to call the cops when Mr. Orange was back on his feet this time with a more lethal weapon. He stabbed Vharox in the arm with the beer bottle and then again in the chest. Vharox fell to the ground and Mr. Orange finished him off with a few more well placed stabs.
+ Show Spoiler [Mr. Blue] +smurfingchobo was the last the mafia were after that night. He let his dogs out before going to bed and they started barking at something in the yard. Neither smurfingchobo nor the dogs could see who it was but they all heard him moving about. The barking came to a stop as blades met their mark on each dogs head killing them all. smurfingchobo took a few steps closer to see one of his dogs decapitated from Mr. Blue's blades when he soon met the same fate as they had.
Day 11:
+ Show Spoiler [Mr. Blue] +The last victim of the night was in the same area as the first. Mr. Blue heard from California Mountain Snake about the white vans and killing off a medic so he decided to go in for his own kill. He quickly found HeRoS)Pink sitting alone in his van just listening to the radio. Mr. Blue was driving a rather over sized excavator and he grabbed the van from the front to the back and pinned HeRoS)Pink in place as he carried the vehicle to the town dump. HeRoS)Pink was helpless and couldn't move an inch the whole time as Mr. Blue dropped his van into a car shredder. Pretty soon HeRoS)Pink and his van were in tiny pieces.
Day 12: N/A
Day 13:
+ Show Spoiler [Mr. Orange, Mr. Blonde] +Losing two members that day the mafia decided to pull all the stops and hit the town where it mattered. They were through messing around and Mr. Orange, Eddie, and Mr. Blonde were about to prove that by taking out Fanatacist and Ace once and for all. Ace and Fanatacist were sitting at a desk going over detective files trying to find the remaining few mafia when the three barged into the room. Ace quickly grabbed the phone to call for backup but it was too late as Mr. Orange had landed a dagger right on the phone line cutting him off. Mr. Blonde shot across the room and grabbed all the notes dumping them into a trash bin nearby. He lit a match and set the whole thing on fire hoping this was the last copy the town had to go off. Mr. Orange, Mr. Blonde and Eddie all got out pistols and fired round after round at Ace and Fanatacist who were helpless to stop them. Eddie went up to Ace and he was terrified as Eddie finished him off but firing one last round into his head.
Day 14: N/A
Day 15:
+ Show Spoiler [Mr. Blonde] +Cottonmouth organized a strike force of mafia to take on a few troublesome townies who had the tendency to keep watches at night. With three mafia it would be sufficient enough to take on three regular joes. So he, along with the Wolf and Mr. Blonde, went to Jimtudor's house and broke in. This automatically set off their home made alarm system and the mafia squelched it right after but the damage was done and they were alerted to mafia presence. Supah, Alethios, and Jimtudor got ready with their handmade weapons, aware that most of the time Mafia did not carry weapons favoring to kill without alerting the neighborhood to their presence. Cottonmouth expecting more trouble went back to his car and handed five plumbata's to each of his comrades. Prepared for the fight to come they burst through the basement door and each threw one at their targets. Two missed and one hit a garbage can lid that Supah was using as a shield. The townies made their counter attack, the stairs leading down to the basement collapsed and the mafia came crashing down hard stunning and injuring them. Not enough though as they were able to ward off the crude melee weapons the town had fashioned from a yard rake, a baseball bat, and a broken chain. Mr. Blonde was able to grab a hold of the yard rake Supah was using and kicked it to break it in half, the Wolf grabbed hold of the chain and pulled it out of Jimtudor's hand then flung it to the side and tossed one of his remaining darts in his shoulder, and Cottonmouth deflected Alethios baseball bat and stabbed him in the foot with a dart. Mr. Blonde threw two plumbata's at Supah and then used the broken off rake handle and stabbed him with it, he then finished off Supah by stabbing a dart into his face. The Wolf lunged for the chain and wrapped it around Jimtudor's leg, then he pulled hard and caused him to fall to the ground. Cottonmouth finished off Alethios by stabbing the rest of the darts into his chest. And the three ganged up on Jimtudor and plunged their remaining darts into his face.
Day 16:
+ Show Spoiler [Mr. Orange] +Mr. Orange had just finished cutting off unsoundlogics house from the rest of the world when unsoundlogic came out the back door and spotted him. He ran back in and tried every phone in the house but they were all dead. Mr. Orange followed in and cornered unsoundlogic with a knife in hand. Maybe unsoundlogic didn't have anymore fight in him after surviving so many attempts, maybe he felt he was no match, but in the end he put up no fight and just let Mr. Orange stab him down.
+ Show Spoiler [unidentified (but has characteristics…] +rpf on the other hand was expecting someone, he felt the danger to his life for days and slept very little at night keeping alert and defensive. But what he didn't expect was someone to kill him without even setting foot in his home. A giant buzzsaw cut in from the side of his house and tore his body apart from the behind. It was overkill, but the mafia were sick and tired of wasting hits on people like rpf.
Day 17: + Show Spoiler [Mr. Blonde] +In the dark shed in ShaLLoW[baY]'s backyard Mr. Blonde gleefully waiting in silence clutching his weapon. ShaLLoW[baY] made his way to the shed slowly inspecting his petunias after the storm had passed. He was shocked to say the least when he opened the door. Mr. Blonde swatting ShaLLoW[baY] with the front end of the yard tool causing him to stumble backward into a trap Mr. Blonde had set of several nails on the ground. Having punctured his foot on a rather rusty one ShaLLoW[baY] began hopping frantically trying to pry the devil from his foot as he screamed in pain. Mr. Blonde used this opportunity to maneuver himself behind his victim and he killed ShaLLoW[baY] in one swift vengeful blow by shoving the rake up his ass. Mr. Orange always thought out odd ways of killing his targets, attempting to stray from the dullness of his associates. And he planned on acting on this now stronger than ever desire by attempting to kill his target with fireworks. Scorch seemed the best for this opportunity he thought, so he set about waterproofing several rather potent explosives for the job. Once his target was sleeping Mr. Orange made his move, he injected a sedative to keep Scorch asleep while he worked on fireworks into every possible orifice of Scorch's body. Unrolling the long fuse he drug the body in the middle of the street, lit it, and like a little kid ran off to safety to watch in awe. Scorch's body was practically paper at the mercy of these overzealous fireworks as they tore him apart from several points. Many people missed out on a great show.
Day 18:
+ Show Spoiler [all, not identified specifically] +Blonde. Blue. Orange. Cottonmouth. These names rang through the heads of every towns person. Many frantically tried to connect them with individuals within their community, many tried to connect them with neighbors. The names conveyed themes. One was a theme of panic. One of haste and arrogance. One of determination and humor. And one of a hidden agenda. Though the town had been making great progress in evicting the mafia from their once peaceful and flourishing town this evening they felt a sharp fear of pain with uncertainty of the remaining criminals.
Within the first couple hours of the night the mafia had all made their move. Amber[LighT] had died first from sharp blades that tore at his skin. Pangolin suffocated in his sleep with no chance to even cry for help. And finally ZBiR had taken a sharp dive down a cliff which he never recalled scaling into the ground.
Day 19:
+ Show Spoiler [unidentifed, but has characteristics o…] +Wind swiftly blew down from overhead as SiZ.Fantasy left the local 7-11 with his bright blue berry slushie in hand. Little did he know his life was in danger as he walked down the street towards his house. His soon-to-be killer jumped from roof to roof waiting for the right moment to strike. When SiZ.Fantasy accidentally dropped the lid to his drink was that moment. He bent over to pick it up, being the good little law abiding citizen he was he, but never got up because as SiZ.Fantasy was doing so a blade sliced him up like confetti.
+ Show Spoiler [unidentified, but has characteristics…] +Infinity21 was also slurping on a slushie as he followed the shadows that stalked Siz.Fantasy down the street. He never made it far enough to see his corpse, however, as he was assaulted from behind with several rocks. He turned around and reached down to grab some at the same time in effort to retaliate but he found several more flying his direction and couldn't fend off the next wave of stones. After recovering Infinity21 got up to retaliate only to find a massive rock flying down onto him smashing his face in.
edit: updated with a couple kills that I missed the first time around
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Lists:
- The list of people who voted for randombum:
+ Show Spoiler +Dr.Dragoon G.s)NarutOs Sadir (On Chuiu's list but apparently not actually a player) fanatacistBockitBWderoNinja4ever. So no fekLysithea JeeJeeGrayAreaMetaiNfuNdiBuLuM Acesuresh0tMynockHollandercrazie-penguinShowtime!MTFGeneralStanLLTTFrench_ToastUnforgiven_ve0cz3cBlindAlbinoclazziquaiQueasy
- The reduced Mandalor list:
+ Show Spoiler +qrs
ahrara_
Lysithea
Ninja4ever.
SoleSteeler
Romance_us
NatsuTerran
iNfuNdiBuLuM
SoMuchBetter
1/9 (~11%) Mafia.
- Reduced non-Mandalor list:
+ Show Spoiler +HotZhot
Dr.Dragoon
CDRdude
Fen
Puosu
KF91
MasterOfChaos
Kuja900
KorvspaD
Ziel
jtan
RowdierBob
DTDominion
BuGzlToOnl
- Showtime! list:
+ Show Spoiler +CDRdude
qrs
ahrara
iNfUnDiBuLuM
1/4 (25%) Mafia.
- Guaranteed innocents (2 of these were revealed by an unfortunate mix-up, but there is no use in pretending that we don't know what we know):
+ Show Spoiler +Wysp
Eti307
Artanis[Xp]
Spoinka
fgsvsd/ygd
So no Fek/Bill307
0/6 (0%) Mafia.
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The Mysterious Mr. Blue
Quite a while ago, several people speculated that Mr. Blue was a lurker. I don't feel like digging up all the posts now, but MasterOfChaos may have been the first to make this connection, although not the only one.
While this may have been speculative when it was first brought up, at this point, I think we can regard the lurker connection as practically confirmed. Skim through all of Mr. Blue's kills (handily quoted for you a couple of posts above). His themes seem to be: 1) Kills with blades, often a row of them (chainsaw, buzz saw), sometimes killing multiple things simultaneously (smurfingchobo's dogs), although his attacks can be dodged (aZnvaLiaNce) 2) Is rarely seen. These two things come up again and again, and fit the lurker motif to a T. (This may be what Chuiu meant by "a hidden agenda".)
At the time, lurkers were connected to two different people: jtan and CDRdude (CDRdude's sig has now changed, but it used to be "sometimes a lurker has to unburrow..."), both of them still in the game.
In this post, araav made a strong circumstantial case for CDRdude: BUT let's take the CDRdude guy, his posts and behaviour during the game are suspicious... read here - http://teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=69736#7especially this: Show nested quote +On March 18 2008 15:23 CDRdude wrote:Awesome, I just got my role PM! It's on now! ok, we know he's not blue, so why would he be so excited about it? and this: 8. CDRdude CLEARLY NOT MAFIA btw, he has promted randombum, some people voted for randombum based on CDR's promotion Show nested quote +
randombum:
I kind of liked his mass PM, it showed effort. I'm not so sure about his voting record in game 1 though. He voted with 100% accuracy (voted FS for mayor, and voted to lynch mafia the only times he voted). He seems to have quite the good record for rooting out mafia. I don't know if he's our number one choice for mayor, but it shows that he's putting some effort into it.
araav makes three points there. His second, I don't find especially convincing, and the third has to be taken with a grain of salt, considering that CDRdude kinda promoted all of the candidates and ended up voting for Ace himself. The first point is also explainable (he was excited about the game being on), but it does seem somewhat suspicious.
If you read through CDRdude's early posts (quoted in araav's blog, linked to in the quote from araav above), he was very involved in the mayoral election, making three lengthy posts (and some smaller ones) about the pros and cons of various candidates and their platforms, although later in the game he fell silent. This has an eery resonance with the only words that we have ever heard Mr. Blue speak, at the very beginning: "Lets just hope the right mayor gets elected, that would speed things up as the town declares martial law."
Incidentally, CDRdude is on the Showtime! list. 1/4 of those are Mafia. If you consider that I have been relatively cleared by making the case for BWdero to be lynched (would I do that if I were Mafia, considering that there were only 4 of us left and no one had mentioned his name yet?), then it's 1/3.
Summary: until I see a better case for someone else, I plan to vote for CDRdude next lynch. Even if he is innocent, Mr. Blue is almost certainly a lurker (which would probably mean jtan if it isn't CDR).
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On July 13 2008 13:17 L wrote:
And as a sidenote: Mafia has NEVER had all twenty members active. If we did, we'd have had random in the mayorship, and we'd have had a complete list of bodyguards to slaughter on day 1.... Not to rely too much on the word of a dead mafioso, but L did help confirm Bockit's guilt with one of his zombie posts, so he may have let something slip again.
If we take L's post at face value, some of the Mafia were inactive at the time of the election and did not vote for anyone at all. This late in the game, I don't know whether that's even useful information, but it may be worth checking up on that first vote count.
Wow, I just spent like 2 hours posting in this thread. I'll check back on Day 20, hopefully.
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Following up on L's hint: these are the mayoral votes for all current possible Mafia. I also threw in the votes of those known mafiosi who did not vote for randombum. Italics=Mandalor list (1 mafioso); plain text=non-Mandalor (2 mafiosi). Hopefully I didn't mess any of this up.
+ Show Spoiler +Ace
ahrara_
CDRdude
Mandalor
araav
qrs
RowdierBob
Empyrean
NatsuTerran
ghar
Ziel
Last Romantic
d.arkive
randombum
Lysithea
Ninja4ever
iNfuNdiBuLuM
Dr.Dragoon
Abstained
HotZhot
Didn't vote
Romance_us
SoMuchBetter
Puosu
KF91
Kuja900
KorvspaD
jtan
DTDominion
BuGzlToOnl
ieatkids5
randombum
SpiritoftheTuna
Evilmonkey
This does seem to confirm that most of the Mafia who didn't vote for randombum didn't vote at all. Mandalor had a particular reason for voting for Ace, as he wanted to infiltrate the inner circle posing as a detective. Voting for Ace may have been intended to help his cover. With that exception, it seems unlikely that other mafiosi voted for Ace, as he was the one candidate standing between randombum and the mayorship. It was quite close at the end, too (30/28 by Chuiu's count), and judging by their last-minute vote switches, the Mafia were quite seriously trying to get randombum in as mayor, not just pardoner. By these lights, perhaps jtan/iNfuNdiBuLuM are better candidates for Mr. Blue/the Showtime! mafioso than CDRdude. Either way, we'll find out pretty soon, no doubt.
updated
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On July 17 2008 19:07 RowdierBob wrote:
Epic if I make it through this.
I haven't actually been a participant, but if anyone requires me to vote, PM me. It's not epic at all to make it through this by not being a participant. It's the easiest way to do it.
Of course you should vote. Vote for one of the people on the Showtime! list or for jtan.
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The Showtime! list
Once upon a time, we still had detectives. Our town was united, one nation under Ace, and Showtime! was making an ass of himself and ticking everybody off. Pretty soon it got to the point where a bunch of people voted to lynch him: 11, to be exact. (vote count can be found here). Ace had his watchful eye on the whole affair, and quietly dispatched a detective to check on these voters. Only one of them was Mafia. (The Mafia have their own ways of dealing with irksome townies, which they did a few days later.)
We return to the present day: Through murders and mislynchings, slowly that merry band of voters has been whittled down, and of the original 11 voters, only 4 now remain:
qrs
ahrara_
CDRdude
iNfuNdiBuLuM
The mafioso still lurks among them. But who can it be?
qrs: Should be cleared by his recent pointing of the finger at BWdero. For the Mafia, there would be very little to gain from this, and a lot to lose. On the downside, one of the four remaining mafiosi, one who had not yet been suspected, was lynched. On the upside, perhaps qrs is solidly established as a townie, but this cannot last for more than a few lynches anyway. I am on the Showtime! list--if I were Mafia, this would be conclusively revealed after the other three were lynched.
This leaves CDRdude, ahrara_, and iNfuNdiBuLuM. Of the three, I was leaning slightly towards CDRdude based on the lurker connection (Mr. Blue), but this was far from conclusive: the lurker might be jtan. Recently, however, another avenue of inquiry was raised by a chance remark of L's:On July 13 2008 13:17 L wrote:
And as a sidenote: Mafia has NEVER had all twenty members active. If we did, we'd have had random in the mayorship.
Well that was an interesting point. Looking back at the mayoral election, no less than three mafiosi switched their votes from Ace to randombum in a last-ditch effort to get their candidate elected. It's fair to assume that most active mafiosi would be voting for randombum at that point. Maybe a couple of them would not, to avoid putting all of their eggs in one basket. But the one candidate that no good mafioso (with the possible exception of fake-detective Mandalor) should have been voting for was Ace, the man who ended up beating randombum in a very narrow election. Here's the list of who voted for whom on the Showtime! list:
qrs - araav
ahrara_ - Ace
CDRdude - Ace
iNfuNdiBuLuM - randombum
It still might be possible that ahrara_ or CDRdude is the mafioso. Perhaps they voted for Ace early and were inactive when the Mafia was making their big push. But if you look back at page 61, both of them were active right around that time. In fact, ahrara_ even said this: On March 20 2008 11:59 ahrara_ wrote:
Hey folks, it looks like the voting is split between randombum and Ace. Just to be sure, let's have a few people change their votes back to Ace so we don't end up with bum as a mayor by accident.
Summary: The circumstantial evidence has convinced me to vote for iNfuNdiBuLuM. As for which character he might be: with the propeller on his head, perhaps at night he flies around as Mr. Blonde. Mr. Blonde has been described as very fast--once Chuiu even used the word "jetted" to describe him. On day 2 he was hanging out on the ceiling, of all places. Also he has come out of nowhere, and once he made his escape out of a window. Maybe he can fly.
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On July 18 2008 01:52 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:qrs, this was my reasoning for voting for randombum: Show nested quote +On March 19 2008 14:10 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
I vote for randombum
Ace is far in the lead, and that's a good thing. But Empyrean in the Pardoner position worries me to no end. By voting for randombum, I hope to oust Empyrean from the seat of power which he potentially holds.
on Empyrean, briefly:
1. his roleclaiming puts the town on the spot to make a decision, and we also cannot verify this roleclaim for the time being. this is the biggest worry i have.
2. it makes him a target for mafia and their saboteur, basically it's free information for them.
3. ace doesn't like his ideas, we could have another FS/Tracil snafu.
4. a detective might have to waste a role check on Empyrean due to his claims, losing even more for the town. Basically i didn't trust Empyrean, and was sure Ace would hold the mayorship without my vote. Randombum was the only other candidate with enough votes to overcome Empyrean (nobody was voting for ghar etc.) I know that this only carries the weight of my word (which probably isn't much) but I also voted for him early on when Empyrean was still around even with Ace and nobody had bandwagoned onto him yet.
It wasn't just that you voted for randombum, but that CDRdude voted for Ace. Also, I suppose that this doesn't entirely help: On June 22 2008 06:33 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
well at least suresh0t is active. i have never even seen romance_us post, so i'd rather give the benefit of the doubt to someone who at least has a possibility of being an active townie. Still, I don't say that you're certainly Mafia. Maybe CDRdude was offline at just the wrong time when the Mafia was pushing for randombum. Or maybe the Mafia was afraid that too many people switching their votes at the last second would look suspicious. In any case, as long as the town lynches someone from the showtime list, it's on the right track. If we don't get the mafioso this lynch, we'll surely get him the next.
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On July 18 2008 14:27 ydg wrote:Show nested quote +...(Though I think the Sedative is important) "Mr. Orange had just finished cutting off unsoundlogics house from the rest of the world when unsoundlogic came out the back door and spotted him." "Ace quickly grabbed the phone to call for backup but it was too late as Mr. Orange had landed a dagger right on the phone line cutting him off. " " Mr. Orange had the help of Eddie as he went after Vharox. They were following behind Vharox as he was leaving a bar late at night. Once Vharox got his door open Eddie came from behind and grabbed him in restraint. Mr. Orange smashed an empty beer bottle over Vharox's head and it shattered into pieces and made Vharox flinch back in pain. He broke free of Eddie and charged into Mr. Orange knocking him on his side. Eddie tried to restrain Vharox again but had no luck as he fought him back. Vharox started inching his way to his cell phone to call the cops when Mr. Orange was back on his feet this time with a more lethal weapon. He stabbed Vharox in the arm with the beer bottle and then again in the chest. Vharox fell to the ground and Mr. Orange finished him off with a few more well placed stabs." Nothing there about it, though there is the BROKEN bottle, but nothing broke in Day 20. "Two men, Eddie and Mr. Orange were holding a man to the ground with their legs and pulling as hard as they could on his arms." Nothing there either though it is just one line. "useLess was sitting at home just watching TV when he heard a strange sound from outside his window. He went over to investigate and Mr. Orange jumped right through it and almost knocked useLess down as he flew past him." There is FLEW past him, maybe that is flying? "Mr. Orange finally put an end to his bellows and shot Meta in the head, ending his life." "an end to his bellows" is very suspicious writing; maybe instead Orange has something to do with lack of sound, as Plexa said? You can't hear anything in space? "Mr. Orange came down with a pair of wire clippers in hand and bashed Dinmsab on the back with them." Maybe "came down" refers to flying as well? If there are no other candidates for Orange, perhaps Lysithea? Moon of Jupiter, also, profile picture is of a window-looking object. But I suppose it all depends on this next lynch. He also voted for randombum. Didn't vote for crazie-penguin (voted for Dr. Dragoon), L (didn't vote), voted for LostYourSkills and not for ieatkids5, didn't vote for clazziquai (nonvote), but he voted for Unforgiven . EDIT: Ace posted this: On May 27 2008 16:45 Ace wrote:
Mandalor list
Keep in mind everything you have just read. Now look at the reduced Mandalor list:
shallow
zbir
ocz3c
romance_us
lysithea
randombum
jimtudor
bwdero
we are sure that 4 of these guys are Mafia.
Why that is the reduced Mandalor list, it has passed my mind. However; shallow
zbir
ocz3c romance_us lysithea randombum
jimtudor
bwderoThat makes 1/2 mafia, either romance or lysithea. Yeah, Mr. Orange seems to have something to do with cutting people off from the outside world. Cutting phone lines, stopping people from using cell phones, cutting off escape. That might possibly connect with space, as you suggest. Worth looking around to see if anyone else fits that theme, too.
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On July 19 2008 01:17 ydg wrote:
I still think we should lynch CDRdude.
If iNfuNdiBuLuM is green, then we have no new info, except that the Showtime list is reduced.
If iNfuNdiBuLuM is red, then we know that CDRdude is green and the rest of the Mandalor list is green.
However;
If CDRdude is green, then we know that the people on the Mandalor list but not on the Showtime list are green.
If CDRdude is red, then we know that of the people on the Mandalor list but not on the Showtime list, one is mafia, which reduces the list.
Thus, we only get good information if iNfuNdiBuLuM turns red, while if CDRdude turns either red or green, we get information.
Hmm, you have a point: I hadn't noticed that. Still, in practical terms, I don't think it makes a huge difference: if we lynch CDR and he turns green, the next lynch would probably be infundibulum; if we lynch infundibulum and he turns green, the next lynch would probably be CDR. After that, we'll have our information anyway, so the main question is simply which one is most likely to be Mafia: CDRdude or jtan/infundibulum. It's close to a toss-up, IMO.
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I remember ahrara's profile picture. Just a picture of him: the one that you can still see in the TL gallery. Re infundibulum, if he turns out to be Mafia, I would link him to Mr. Blonde, as I said earlier. Reasoning: the propeller on his head=can fly=Mr. Blonde (speed, "jetted", escaped through a window, sometimes hangs out on the ceiling).
On July 19 2008 05:22 Bill307 wrote:
Also, recall Plexa's guide to Mafia clue analysis. He stated very clearly that exactly one aspect of a mafioso is used to generate the clues for them! E.g. if someone's profile pic is used to generate clues, then their name, quote, etc. will be ignored.
Plexa was a very good clue analyst, but he was not right about everything, and I'm still not sure where he got this from. Take suresh0t for instance: the main clue against him related to his name, but there were a couple of things that seemed to relate to his signature and his picture. Maybe all of those other 'clues' were really nothing, but unless Chuiu has said somewhere that he only uses one aspect of a mafioso to generate clues, I don't think we can assume it.
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In my opinion, jtan is the surer lynch. He's been a suspect forever, his voting record does not inspire confidence, and he's the only possibility left that we know of who relates to a lurker. There is virtually no doubt at this point that Mr. Blue is a lurker.
However, you guys have made a pretty good case against KF91 as well.
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On July 21 2008 02:53 RtS)Night[Mare wrote:
edit:
[undead howl]
I BLOODY TOLD YOU PAGES AGO THAT HE WAS THE MAFIOSOOOOOO I JUST LINKED HIM INCORRECTLY
[/undead howl]
But if the mafioso you tried to link him with wasn't really him, it's only a coincidence that he happened to be a different one, no?
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You have the wrong kill for Day 19. Mr. Blue is + Show Spoiler +Wind swiftly blew down from overhead as SiZ.Fantasy left the local 7-11 with his bright blue berry slushie in hand. Little did he know his life was in danger as he walked down the street towards his house. His soon-to-be killer jumped from roof to roof waiting for the right moment to strike. When SiZ.Fantasy accidentally dropped the lid to his drink was that moment. He bent over to pick it up, being the good little law abiding citizen he was he, but never got up because as SiZ.Fantasy was doing so a blade sliced him up like confetti.
Anyway, it's quite clear that Mr. Blue is a lurker: Day 6: chainsaw = row of blades = lurker spines. Second attack is dodged: lurker is the only unit whose attack can be dodged. Day 7: umbrella tip = blade again. Day 9: Mr. Blue = ambushing to cut off retreat: somewhat lurker-like. Day 10: row of blades kill multiple things simultaneously: killer is not seen. Day 11: blades (of a different sort); killer not seen. Day 12: row of blades; killer not seen. Day 18: hidden agenda=not seen. Day 19: blade kill; not seen. Day 20: row of blades; killer not seen. FWIW, MoC and others noticed this theme long before there was so much evidence for it.
edit: ah, I didn't see your DT theory. That would also be a good fit for blades + not seen.
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The EndOn July 21 2008 08:20 Bill307 wrote:I think the odds that KF91 is mafia must be like 99% or more, now. qrs and ydg, do you guys agree that we should lynch KF91 first?
Honestly, I don't think it matters anymore. We've pretty much wrapped it up now. KF91 is presumably Mr. Orange. Mr. Blue is probably jtan (rows of blades and missed attacks fit lurkers better than DTs); if he turns out to be innocent, DTDominion is our backup. No way Mr. Blue is an ultralisk; that would not fit the stealth theme in the least. I don't see HotZhot as a major suspect, although I know that you do (if the primary suspects flip green). In the worst case scenario that we are wrong about everything, we know without any doubt at all that the two remaining mafiosi come from this list:+ Show Spoiler +HotZhot
Dr.Dragoon
Puosu
KF91
Kuja900
KorvspaD
Ziel
jtan
RowdierBob
DTDominion
BuGzlToOnl
Not much more to say. This is probably my last post.
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Well, I wasn't going to post again, but since I'm directly addressed...
1) The reasons I prefer lurkers to DTs for Mr. Blue:
-chainsaws and buzzsaws = rows of blades
-aznvaliance dodges his attack
-he often remains unseen--but not always
2) Large machinery: Don't think it's a clue, personally:
-the largeness can be explained as a way for him to pick up cars, slice into houses (thus killing without being seen)
-if it is a clue, we have yet to tie it to anyone, DTDominion included. edit: wrote that before bill's last post, which offers a rather strained connection to Dominion
3) If jtan turns out to be innocent, we just turn around and lynch DTDominion. We lose one night. At this point, no big deal.
I don't mind voting for KF91 first, though.
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On July 21 2008 12:35 Bill307 wrote:
... Okay, honestly are you fucking stupid?
...Moreover, what the fuck kind of retarded argument is "we haven't matched it to anybody therefore it's not a clue"? Again, are you fucking stupid?
...You know, for a sec it seemed like you were actually helping the town. But now you're just going back to the way you were the entire game: being a fucking retard. Fine, don't post anymore. If you're so stupid as to think that large machines is not a clue, then you'd just be holding us back, anyway.
On July 21 2008 12:40 Bill307 wrote:Show nested quote +2) Large machinery: Don't think it's a clue, personally:
[...]
-if it is a clue, we have yet to tie it to anyone, DTDominion included. I still cannot believe someone could use such an obviously flawed argument. Honestly, I have no respect for qrs, now. That is by far the stupidest thing I have read in this entire topic.
Relax.
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On July 22 2008 07:31 Bill307 wrote:
The problem with qrs is that he is impatient: he links a handful of clues to a person, and then that's it for him: he is 100% convinced. He doesn't push for the kind of thorough, all-encompassing clue analysis that we've seen from the superior detectives in this game, such as Plexa.
There are so many more clues in those posts that qrs ignores. I point them out and he ignores them, his mind set in stone. Granted I was too harsh on him earlier: I get like that when I see people say mind-blowingly stupid things. I also said some things that I now realize were wrong. My apologies.
Without further ado, I will show you all the PROPER, THOROUGH way to connect Mr. Blue to jtan.
*sigh*. Can't you just say "I was wrong"? Nearly everything you have said in that post has been said before, by me or others (like in this summary). You added the excavator connection, and the behind-the-depot thing. Also a strained analogy between cliffs and locked windows and ramps and back doors; also an mistaken connection with a flying object (that was California Mountain Snake's metal disk). As for the 'clue' that caused you to blow your gasket in the first place, when I politely disagreed with it--it looks like you have decided that giant machinery is not the point after all.
You weren't just "too harsh on me earlier". You were completely off the mark and made yourself look like a moron. But even now that you admit I was right after all, you try to spin it somehow to make it like you were still right all along, and I was the one who was arguing against jtan's being Mr. Blue.
I realize that you are enthusiastic about the game and you want to contribute. And it's not your fault that most of the analysis happened before you came into the picture (I was not the first one to identify jtan). But do try to tone down your ego a little bit, please. Try not to get personal, and if you're wrong, admit it with good grace. Play nice.
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On July 22 2008 11:10 Bill307 wrote:
That's a lot easier to do when the person you're disagreeing with didn't just say they were going to abandon the game and stop posting. That was very infuriating. It was like a big "Fuck you guys: my mind's made up and I'm done."
OK, thanks for explaining, actually. I didn't realize how my post sounded to you. (I'm pretty bad about not realizing what my posts sound like sometimes.) I was taken aback when you blew up at me seemingly out of nowhere.
Now that I know what ticked you off, I sincerely apologize. I didn't mean to belittle your analysis, or say that no matter what, I was finished, even if you had come up with convincing evidence against someone else. All I meant was that I thought that between everyone, we had IDed the remaining Mafia, and there was nothing more for me to say. If you wanted to keep going and make sure every t was crossed, more power to you. I apologize for the unintentional insult.
Hope everything is cleared up now. GG.
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On August 05 2008 10:27 Ace wrote:
qrs was a jackass though. He was never really helpful to me when I was alive, and pretty much only became useful once everyone else was dead and almost all of the work was done.
No, you were the jackass and are still being one. You've gone out of your way to personally attack me time and again, when I have not said anything that could even be construed as provocation except for one or two posts months ago (and even then, I spoke but truth). Really, Ace, it's time to drop it.
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I'm not going to get into a silly argument with you about whether I was a "horrible townie" or a good one. It's just a game, for heaven's sake, and you're getting far too worked up about it. If it makes you happy, I concede everything: all of my posts were misguided, and everyone I argued with was right. Now put your toys back into the pram, OK?
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I nominate araav as most unheralded townie. His coding was very helpful.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://teamliquid.net/userfiles/22041.jpg?1188493959)
