|
+ Show Spoiler +On March 26 2008 17:19 Alventenie wrote:From this post: Show nested quote +On March 26 2008 16:49 Alethios wrote:
Whats more, why bother posting rough numbers? You ARE on a computer you know. You COULD calculate these things properly easily.
By saying that the 1/7 group is the worse list really shows how little thought you've put into this.
Just because there is a slightly higher percentage of Assassins in the larger list, doesn't mean it's somehow easier to get at them. They are hidden amongst the masses, requiring a huge amount of effort to get at. At least with the 1/7 group, a single repeater will put the Assassin in a new list with, at worst, a 25% Assassin percentage.
Can't you see i'm talking sense Ace? Please drop this plan. Cross referencing lists will be far more effective at singling out Undead. At the bottom, "Can't you see i'm talking sense Ace?" Ace hasn't responded to you since last page, you have been talking with me the entire page.
I kindly direct you to where I said:
On March 26 2008 17:10 Alethios wrote:
If I said Ace, I was talking to Ace.
I said Ace, it's his plan i'm trying to change, not yours. Thus, Ace: Change your plan.
+ Show Spoiler +On March 26 2008 17:19 Alventenie wrote:Also from your first post: Show nested quote +On March 26 2008 15:35 Alethios wrote:
That being said, I by and large trust Ace and I have a large dose of respect for many of his ideas... but what has prompted me to speak up is this plan of his for tomorrow's vote.
IT'S RETARDED.
As far as my posts, they were directed at mostly this. All your point from my point of view is about tomorrows votes, not future votes past tomorrow. Therefore, all these extra resources that you say I am saying we should do (I put them out there as something that could happen, because as it is now, that is what Ace's plan is, I don't know if he will continue to use that as his plan or not). Therefore a majority of your counter points (or first points according to you) are from what I am saying about days past tomorrow. Don't think like that, I am posting because you say this plan is retarded for tomorrow's votes, not day 4, or 5, or 6, but day 3. So until you get over the fact that I am talking about tomorrow, I am going to ask you to stop having negativity towards me about future days. Ace could have a different plan for then, I don't know, all I know is what the plan is tomorrow.
Can't you see that Ace's plan requires a sustained commitment? If the chase is given up tomorrow, we've achieved nothing... at great cost. Thus, I think it was fair to pitch my later arguments at a sustained enforced voting plan.
|
[QUOTE]On March 26 2008 17:01 Alethios wrote:
[QUOTE]On March 26 2008 16:52 Ghar wrote:
Chuiu, can detectives check abstain lists?
[/QUOTE]
we cant
|
On March 26 2008 17:24 Alventenie wrote:
I know you are not suggesting we vote for the person Ace puts forward tomorrow, you are against it. I've been posting this entire last page about how we should follow Ace's plan, not against it (like you have). If I was against his plan I wouldn't even of bothered posting, however as you said, if people don't follow the plan, it will break down, to an extent. If mafia don't follow the voting plan, then we find ourselves lots of townies, if townies don't follow it, we find some townies, but gain little ground finding mafia.
And for the last thing I have to say (its 4:30 am, I am kind of tired), I have addressed your points in your argument, you just seem that what I am saying doesn't apply to them. If you wanted me to break your post down sentence by sentence I could, but I was answering generally to the points that you seemed to advocate.
I've suggested right from the beginning that if Ace gives us another Mandalor, we should go for it. What i've been arguing against is the enforced voting, where we vote for X or Y or else.
On March 26 2008 17:22 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2008 16:18 Alethios wrote:
Put simply... 1/7 Guilty in the first lot (this is your better sample) is still only 14.3% mafia. Compare this to the total murderers in the game, over the total players. 22/130 = 16.9% mafia
Then you have your 10/58 Guilty in the second lot.... Which is slightly more at 10/58 = 17.2% but still not far from the mean. Furthermore, much more effort is required to separate out these mafia than in the first lot.
Seriously... I don't buy your "math isn't adding up" for a second. I realise that (assuming you ARE town) you have to maintain the trust of the town, but persisting with this stupid scheme isn't helping in the slightest. You're still wrong, Out of those 7 people you think I don't know that some of them are 100% innocent? At this point if you don't realize I'm innocent I cant but help in thinking you're either purposely trying to mislead the town or just plain old haven't been reading the thread.
The list of 7 people I think is wrong, but go ahead if you wish. It'll still take a number of turns (and detectives) in any case, resources that might be put to better use. I'll warn you now though, your seemingly sturdy plans will fall down as soon as people start missing votes, or dissenting.
On March 26 2008 17:22 Ace wrote:
At this point if you don't realize I'm innocent I cant but help in thinking you're either purposely trying to mislead the town or just plain old haven't been reading the thread.
Where is the fabled Ace of old? Is this the best you can come up with? Not even an attempt to counter my logic? For shame.
EDIT: Screwed up my quotes, leaving this unedited long enough for Ace to have a good look though.
|
On March 26 2008 17:34 Alethios wrote:
I've suggested right from the beginning that if Ace gives us another Mandalor, we should go for it. What i've been arguing against is the enforced voting, where we vote for X or Y or else.
The entire point of the enforced voting to those who can see it is not only to find a Mafia but to find out which townies are 100% innocent. This way after tomorrows votes I possibly won't ever even have to do enforced voting. I'll have enough information on 11 possible mafia targets in no time just by the very fact that I'll know who's innocent + the innocents I know now.
On March 26 2008 16:18 Alethios wrote:
The list of 7 people I think is wrong, but go ahead if you wish. It'll still take a number of turns (and detectives) in any case, resources that might be put to better use. I'll warn you now though, your seemingly sturdy plans will fall down as soon as people start missing votes, or dissenting.
It will take 1 turn, and thats only if one of them dont die.
The list will be split 4/3. 1 Mafia among them.
I already know some of those guy's roles. Once I find out which side the Mafia is on it's going to be at worst 1/4 or 25% chance of finding him without applying prior knowledge.
The other half of that list is automatically innocent. How are you figuring it will take us more than 1 turn? 1 detective - 1 turn. Thats it. If people miss votes when they've had WAY more than enough time so be it. It's the burden on the Mafia. If they leave the group and no other townies does then we have our suspect. If he leaves and only 1 or 2 townies do also, BAM we still have our suspect.
Where is the failure part of this plan? If all 7 of them vote differently even though some of those people already PM'd me saying they would vote the same to prove their innocence?
You're arguments isn't adding up because any innocent townie that would do what's best for the town would see how this works out.
Where is the fabled Ace of old? Is this the best you can come up with? Not even an attempt to counter my logic? For shame.
.
Counter what logic?
Anyone playing this game that read the plan knows I'm innocent right now. It's impossible for me to be Mafia. Just because you cooked up some fabled scenario for some reason to confuse the town doesn't mean the rest of us are going to buy it. That post was the silliest set of logic leaps I've seen and it clearly shows you are up to something.
|
Cool our mayor is now a siege tank. Blow those mafia to pieces Ace!
|
+ Show Spoiler +On March 26 2008 17:45 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2008 17:34 Alethios wrote:
I've suggested right from the beginning that if Ace gives us another Mandalor, we should go for it. What i've been arguing against is the enforced voting, where we vote for X or Y or else.
The entire point of the enforced voting to those who can see it is not only to find a Mafia but to find out which townies are 100% innocent. This way after tomorrows votes I possibly won't ever even have to do enforced voting. I'll have enough information on 11 possible mafia targets in no time just by the very fact that I'll know who's innocent + the innocents I know now. Show nested quote +On March 26 2008 16:18 Alethios wrote:
The list of 7 people I think is wrong, but go ahead if you wish. It'll still take a number of turns (and detectives) in any case, resources that might be put to better use. I'll warn you now though, your seemingly sturdy plans will fall down as soon as people start missing votes, or dissenting.
It will take 1 turn, and thats only if one of them dont die. The list will be split 4/3. 1 Mafia among them. I already know some of those guy's roles. Once I find out which side the Mafia is on it's going to be at worst 1/4 or 25% chance of finding him without applying prior knowledge. The other half of that list is automatically innocent. How are you figuring it will take us more than 1 turn? 1 detective - 1 turn. Thats it. If people miss votes when they've had WAY more than enough time so be it. It's the burden on the Mafia. If they leave the group and no other townies does then we have our suspect. If he leaves and only 1 or 2 townies do also, BAM we still have our suspect. Where is the failure part of this plan? If all 7 of them vote differently even though some of those people already PM'd me saying they would vote the same to prove their innocence? You're arguments isn't adding up because any innocent townie that would do what's best for the town would see how this works out. Show nested quote +
Where is the fabled Ace of old? Is this the best you can come up with? Not even an attempt to counter my logic? For shame.
.
Counter what logic? Anyone playing this game that read the plan knows I'm innocent right now. It's impossible for me to be Mafia. Just because you cooked up some fabled scenario for some reason to confuse the town doesn't mean the rest of us are going to buy it. That post was the silliest set of logic leaps I've seen and it clearly shows you are up to something.
*sigh*..... Seriously.... You could have just brushed this all off but instead you go and pull this.
Defending the actions i've already conceeded... Denying there is any possibility you are Mafia. Not addressing any other points. Dude wtf?
As i've said, I don't believe you are mafia... but you COULD be.
->All it takes is for you to be a regular cultist. Detectives look at you, return nothing and thus don't speak out.
->The general town hears no outcry from anybody, and thus we go about "knowing" you are innocent.
->You kill off a teammate and the trust the town has for you is complete.
Again, I trust you. But I stick by my position. The person saying "Whoa, hold back just a bit ok?"
This doesn't affect your ability to kill mafia, so I don't know why you are bitching about it.
|
a regular cultist? wtf are you talking about.
|
On March 26 2008 17:57 Ace wrote:
a regular cultist? wtf are you talking about.
Minion of Death, Shallow[bay]'s position in Game 1. Allow me to continue to have this bit of fun with synonyms.
|
sigh, ok.
Keep talking whatever nonsense keeps you happy. We'll ask you to go forward with the plan tomorrow, and whether or not your with us we'll do what we can.
|
On March 26 2008 18:02 Ace wrote:
sigh, ok.
Keep talking whatever nonsense keeps you happy. We'll ask you to go forward with the plan tomorrow, and whether or not your with us we'll do what we can.
You haven't spoken against the DT flaw.
You haven't spoken about why the 58 person split will work.
You haven't spoken about why you will not concede a small fail safe (even though it won't hurt you per-se)
You haven't told us why Cross Referencing, at least on the 58 person vote, will not work.
Why do you continue with this shrugging off? You only destabilise your position ever so slightly. Since your town (right), why don't you correct this?
|
I just answered that in the previous post.
There is no DT flaw as there are no Godfather roles. Which means the DT answers to someone's role always is 100% correct. Where's the flaw?
There is no way that all 4 DTs are inactive with me knowing Mandalor was Mafia + getting a vote count.
That takes care of your DT flaw.
What do you mean work? The 58 person split is not only to find Mafia, but to find out who's innocent. I don't know how many times we have to tell you this but you keep beating it into your head that there's some magical flaw.
I'm not Cross Referencing anything.
But above all else, I have at least 3 times as much information as YOU do. So obviously I know exactly why this plan works in ways you could never even fathom.
Don't tell me you really think I accused wurm by accident?
The Mafia isn't the only one playing mind games this time around.
|
On March 26 2008 18:13 Ace wrote:
I just answered that in the previous post.
There is no DT flaw as there are no Godfather roles. Which means the DT answers to someone's role always is 100% correct. Where's the flaw?
There is no way that all 4 DTs are inactive with me knowing Mandalor was Mafia + getting a vote count.
That takes care of your DT flaw.
What do you mean work? The 58 person split is not only to find Mafia, but to find out who's innocent. I don't know how many times we have to tell you this but you keep beating it into your head that there's some magical flaw.
I'm not Cross Referencing anything.
But above all else, I have at least 3 times as much information as YOU do. So obviously I know exactly why this plan works in ways you could never even fathom.
Don't tell me you really think I accused wurm by accident?
The Mafia isn't the only one playing mind games this time around.
Urgh. Again.
I assume you are talking about this DT-non-flaw?
->You have the ability to ask me whether or not a specific clue points to a specific person and get a yes/no answer.
->You have the ability to, twice a game, ask me what role a specific person has.
Suppose you are regular mafia. What will a DT get when he asks chuiu what role you have?
"Ace has no special role"
-----
Right, so after tomorrows vote you get:
4/20 Mafia in one list (With 10 people changing or abstaining)
5/29 Mafia in the other list.
What new information do you get from that? NONE.
----
You aren't considering doing a separate independent vote, counting for mafia, then comparing lists... why?
----
I don't see why you think you can bring in talk about wurm and how YOU are the one playing mind games this time! Expecting me to go "oh yes, you are very clever aren't you" Not relevant, sorry.
|
On March 26 2008 17:56 Alethios wrote:
As i've said, I don't believe you are mafia... but you COULD be.
->All it takes is for you to be a regular cultist. Detectives look at you, return nothing and thus don't speak out.
i don't believe it works that way. i definitely think asking Chuiu about a vanilla mafia's role would yield "plain mafia", not "no special role". what would be the point of the ability otherwise? i think Chuiu would have warned us after the detective plan was presented if the detective ability worked this way.
|
You're wrong.
If a DT asks someone's role, regular mafia are revealed as MAFIA otherwise there would be no point in only being able to ask twice.
Mafia is a ROLE. Doesn't matter if it's special or not.
Right, so after tomorrows vote you get:
4/20 Mafia in one list (With 10 people changing or abstaining)
5/29 Mafia in the other list.
What new information do you get from that? NONE.
I get a lot more than you think. If I already know that in that first half of 29 that 10 are innocent, and then it comes out that 6 of those are Mafia to YOU it looks like 6/29 but to me it looks like 6/19.
And of those 19, there may be circumstances I know about that implicates some of them and frees others where it can drop down to even 6/15 and lower.
I've told you this before, I know much more information than you do so I have no need to Cross Reference lists first. I can do that AFTER but there's no point in doing that with 58 people when I could save 4 times the work by splitting the list in half and comparing it with the info I already know.
I don't see why you think you can bring in talk about wurm and how YOU are the one playing mind games this time! Expecting me to go "oh yes, you are very clever aren't you" Not relevant, sorry.
I said that in the hopes that you'd realize everything I've done so far is more than what it seems. Sometimes the simplest explanation isn't best.
|
On March 26 2008 18:27 Scorch wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2008 17:56 Alethios wrote:
As i've said, I don't believe you are mafia... but you COULD be.
->All it takes is for you to be a regular cultist. Detectives look at you, return nothing and thus don't speak out. i don't believe it works that way. i definitely think asking Chuiu about a vanilla mafia's role would yield "plain mafia", not "no special role". what would be the point of the ability otherwise? i think Chuiu would have warned us after the detective plan was presented if the detective ability worked this way.
See this is just me, but unless somebody asks Chuiu a question... I haven't seen him answer any.
If we get an answer from Chuiu about this, saying that the question would yield "plain mafia", I will of course withdraw any and all comments regarding Ace's allegiance.
That being said, I'm still convinced there are more efficient methods for tomorrows vote.
|
|
|
On March 26 2008 18:32 Alethios wrote:
See this is just me, but unless somebody asks Chuiu a question... I haven't seen him answer any.
If we get an answer from Chuiu about this, saying that the question would yield "plain mafia", I will of course withdraw any and all comments regarding Ace's allegiance.
That being said, I'm still convinced there are more efficient methods for tomorrows vote.
Of course asking chuiu for someone's role would reveal mafia as their role. Otherwise what would be the point of having the power? It would be sort of pointless for a detective to have a power that could only discover blues but not distinguish between mafia and town. Mafia is a role, just like townie is a role. I don't understand why you would think otherwise.
edit: typo
|
Assuming that we are still theoretically unsure about your allegiance, the most logical course for the town to take would be to vote as normal. Opening up the ability to cross reference while not giving you absolute power.
Assuming we DO know you are town, then your course of action... as you say... is likely the best. We can assume you have much more information than us and thus probably know what you are doing when manipulating the vote.
No doubt, we'll have received an answer before tomorrow... so it won't make much difference.
Assuming the question goes your way, I'm glad to see you stand up under close scrutiny.
If not, you've dug yourself a deep enough hole now that I am satisfied either way.
|
You'd have to be pretty paranoid not to trust Ace at this point.
|
On March 26 2008 18:50 Pangolin wrote:
You'd have to be pretty paranoid not to trust Ace at this point.
I said right from the outset that I trusted Ace. Just spotted a potential flaw that hadn't been addressed yet. Enjoyed the argument too :D
Things are looking really up for the town at the moment, and what is the pillar of that? Ace. Thought I'd better make sure he was working for the side we all think he is.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
