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On March 26 2008 16:24 Showtime! wrote:
You are blinder and dumber than I thought.
bye bye kiwi.
Oh please.... don't even try to pull that one on me.
Please don't forget your the one who's name was being bandied about in connection the clues not long ago...
I had hoped you were talking about me, interesting you picked up that I am female...
Instead of saying "so says the mafioso" why don't you try to actually pick apart my argument. Might be a bit more productive.
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I believe what Ace is going on is that even though the % is close to the mean in that group of 58, its a better % of finding mafia and innocents (say one group there is no mafia, other has all 10), than say, choosing the group that didn't vote/abstained from voting. Therefore, he is picking the most reasonable approach of the use of this detective power. While i think he should just use one detective role on the ghar group, its really up to him, and if he finds mafia that way, then good for him. Otherwise until you provide a better plan (and i mean complete plan of action tomorrow) to use those powers and make them more useful than what Ace is doing, I suggest you not to try and post stuff saying that his way is retarded.
edit: grammar
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Ok, I'll post about your argument, I didn't use a calculator, but i have rough numbers for you.
Saying using the powers on 2x groups of 29 on a 10/58 group of mafia is his worst choice (it isnt, the 1/7 is). That means the remaining people are thrown into a group of (103-65 = 38), that means 9/38 (~23.4%) of guessing. The only problem with having those 38 vote, is that
A) They all voted for different people/abstained
B) They didn't vote at all, meaning they are away, not wanting to post
So what Ace is doing is he is having the people he know for sure posted and voted, to use them, rather than trying an uncertainty of getting people that may be away/inactive to vote. That is why his way is the most reasonable way of doing the votes. If i had anything to guess at, he probably will use a double lynch tomorrow because of the 2 groups, because otherwise you will have 2 even groups (but that could change with the day post)
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Do you have any alternate solutions then?
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On March 26 2008 16:31 Alventenie wrote:
I believe what Ace is going on is that even though the % is close to the mean in that group of 58, its a better % of finding mafia and innocents (say one group there is no mafia, other has all 10), than say, choosing the group that didn't vote/abstained from voting. Therefore, he is picking the most reasonable approach of the use of this detective power. While i think he should just use one detective role on the ghar group, its really up to him, and if he finds mafia that way, then good for him. Otherwise until you provide a better plan (and i mean complete plan of action tomorrow) to use those powers and make them more useful than what Ace is doing, I suggest you not try and post stuff saying that his way is retarded.
Going on prior evidence, the Mafia are more likely, statistically to be the ones lurking. So i'm not sure what evidence you have to say it's better than choosing the group that didn't vote/abstain...
Furthermore, I'm not required to provide an alternate plan in order to point out that the current one is stupid, but I shall anyway.
1) Vote how you see fit, acting upon Ace's evidence against somebody if you wish. This has worked well in the past, and will again.
2) Detectives use their powers to find out useful information. One such use would be to check the new (fresh) lists for mafia and cross-referencing the two lists. This will almost certainly result in far better results.
3) Don't let yourself become removed from the loop. Yes, I think we should trust Ace for now... but don't allow yourself to become a bystander, as it puts too much trust in Ace.
Satisfied? Bet you thought I wouldn't come up with one.
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On March 26 2008 16:38 Alventenie wrote:
Ok, I'll post about your argument, I didn't use a calculator, but i have rough numbers for you.
Saying using the powers on 2x groups of 29 on a 10/58 group of mafia is his worst choice (it isnt, the 1/7 is). That means the remaining people are thrown into a group of (103-65 = 38), that means 9/38 (~23.4%) of guessing. The only problem with having those 38 vote, is that
A) They all voted for different people/abstained
B) They didn't vote at all, meaning they are away, not wanting to post
So what Ace is doing is he is having the people he know for sure posted and voted, to use them, rather than trying an uncertainty of getting people that may be away/inactive to vote. That is why his way is the most reasonable way of doing the votes. If i had anything to guess at, he probably will use a double lynch tomorrow because of the 2 groups, because otherwise you will have 2 even groups (but that could change with the day post)
1) Lets say we do the split. (putting aside all the concerns about where that might leave us) Lets look at the numbers. Chances are, the Death Cult members will be split reasonably evenly amongst the groups, resulting in similar percentages to what we have now. Nothing can be done with this information, but to repeat the process. Resulting in multiple Kangaroo courts each time hoping that we get lucky and a Mafia member is singled out.
2) He sets up the suspects, uses the double lynch and forces us to vote the way he wants us to. Can you not see how much power this will give him?
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On March 26 2008 16:38 Alethios wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2008 16:31 Alventenie wrote:
I believe what Ace is going on is that even though the % is close to the mean in that group of 58, its a better % of finding mafia and innocents (say one group there is no mafia, other has all 10), than say, choosing the group that didn't vote/abstained from voting. Therefore, he is picking the most reasonable approach of the use of this detective power. While i think he should just use one detective role on the ghar group, its really up to him, and if he finds mafia that way, then good for him. Otherwise until you provide a better plan (and i mean complete plan of action tomorrow) to use those powers and make them more useful than what Ace is doing, I suggest you not try and post stuff saying that his way is retarded. Going on prior evidence, the Mafia are more likely, statistically to be the ones lurking. So i'm not sure what evidence you have to say it's better than choosing the group that didn't vote/abstain... Furthermore, I'm not required to provide an alternate plan in order to point out that the current one is stupid, but I shall anyway. 1) Vote how you see fit, acting upon Ace's evidence against somebody if you wish. This has worked well in the past, and will again. 2) Detectives use their powers to find out useful information. One such use would be to check the new (fresh) lists for mafia and cross-referencing the two lists. This will almost certainly result in far better results. 3) Don't let yourself become removed from the loop. Yes, I think we should trust Ace for now... but don't allow yourself to become a bystander, as it puts too much trust in Ace. Satisfied? Bet you thought I wouldn't come up with one.
One thing you must remember is that the burden of proof is on the accuser, therefore if you are going to attack his plan and call it retarded, but not put forth another plan that should be taken instead, then we in reality don't move forward. While making up our own minds and not jumping on bandwagons is a good idea, that will result in possibly a few things,
A) Such as too many dispersed votes, meaning there will be more lists of votes than detectives can check,
B) Mafia will try to coerce people into voting against other townies, because everyone will have to decipher clues themselves (and not everyone is good at it)
C) Some people won't care to think for themselves and just pick the first person they see with a reasonable argument and vote who they voted for.
With Ace's plan, he knows for certain the names of guaranteed townies, therefore they can all put input in on things together, trusting each other, rather than having to trust dead people and question all people who are alive.
Reasonably, I think his plan is fine for what we should do. If you have a better plan than the regular saying of "Think on your own, its safer because you don't know if so-and-so is mafia or not.", then I don't think other people are going to listen to much that you have to say.
PS. No, I did not think that you weren't going to respond, you wanted to start the argument, I believed that you would continue it, not just post once and vanish.
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On March 26 2008 16:44 Alethios wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2008 16:38 Alventenie wrote:
Ok, I'll post about your argument, I didn't use a calculator, but i have rough numbers for you.
Saying using the powers on 2x groups of 29 on a 10/58 group of mafia is his worst choice (it isnt, the 1/7 is). That means the remaining people are thrown into a group of (103-65 = 38), that means 9/38 (~23.4%) of guessing. The only problem with having those 38 vote, is that
A) They all voted for different people/abstained
B) They didn't vote at all, meaning they are away, not wanting to post
So what Ace is doing is he is having the people he know for sure posted and voted, to use them, rather than trying an uncertainty of getting people that may be away/inactive to vote. That is why his way is the most reasonable way of doing the votes. If i had anything to guess at, he probably will use a double lynch tomorrow because of the 2 groups, because otherwise you will have 2 even groups (but that could change with the day post) 1) Lets say we do the split. (putting aside all the concerns about where that might leave us) Lets look at the numbers. Chances are, the Death Cult members will be split reasonably evenly amongst the groups, resulting in similar percentages to what we have now. Nothing can be done with this information, but to repeat the process. Resulting in multiple Kangaroo courts each time hoping that we get lucky and a Mafia member is singled out. 2) He sets up the suspects, uses the double lynch and forces us to vote the way he wants us to. Can you not see how much power this will give him?
It doesn't matter if they split evenly, he is forcing the mafia to vote, AND he is making them vote the way he wants them to. Otherwise they could vote for whoever they wish, whether abstain, or voting for someone with little votes to make it look like they are trying to be helpful. The fact that he has that power means he is forcing the mafia to play on his own terms. That puts the mafia at a disadvantage because that means they will be voting for their fellow teammates (as shown with Mandolar).
He sets up the suspects, yes, he does, it gives him a lot of power, but I see no reason as to not trust him as of yet. No detectives have spoken up yet, I've talked to him in PMs a couple times, and he seems no threat to me at all as a townie. Therefore, until he pulls some stunt that warrants enough suspicion, I have no problem with him using such power to have the town move forward in lynching mafia. Also, even if I did have a problem with it, there would be nothing I could do since the vast majority of the town trusts Ace, and will follow him.
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Whats more, why bother posting rough numbers? You ARE on a computer you know. You COULD calculate these things properly easily.
By saying that the 1/7 group is the worse list really shows how little thought you've put into this.
Just because there is a slightly higher percentage of Assassins in the larger list, doesn't mean it's somehow easier to get at them. They are hidden amongst the masses, requiring a huge amount of effort to get at. At least with the 1/7 group, a single repeater will put the Assassin in a new list with, at worst, a 25% Assassin percentage.
Can't you see i'm talking sense Ace? Please drop this plan. Cross referencing lists will be far more effective at singling out Undead.
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The currently list nets half the Mafia. I believe working with that information is a good idea. Cross analyzing them will reduce the list down substantially.
Working on abstained voters, you can't really work on them can you?
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On March 26 2008 16:49 Alventenie wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2008 16:44 Alethios wrote:On March 26 2008 16:38 Alventenie wrote:
Ok, I'll post about your argument, I didn't use a calculator, but i have rough numbers for you.
Saying using the powers on 2x groups of 29 on a 10/58 group of mafia is his worst choice (it isnt, the 1/7 is). That means the remaining people are thrown into a group of (103-65 = 38), that means 9/38 (~23.4%) of guessing. The only problem with having those 38 vote, is that
A) They all voted for different people/abstained
B) They didn't vote at all, meaning they are away, not wanting to post
So what Ace is doing is he is having the people he know for sure posted and voted, to use them, rather than trying an uncertainty of getting people that may be away/inactive to vote. That is why his way is the most reasonable way of doing the votes. If i had anything to guess at, he probably will use a double lynch tomorrow because of the 2 groups, because otherwise you will have 2 even groups (but that could change with the day post) 1) Lets say we do the split. (putting aside all the concerns about where that might leave us) Lets look at the numbers. Chances are, the Death Cult members will be split reasonably evenly amongst the groups, resulting in similar percentages to what we have now. Nothing can be done with this information, but to repeat the process. Resulting in multiple Kangaroo courts each time hoping that we get lucky and a Mafia member is singled out. 2) He sets up the suspects, uses the double lynch and forces us to vote the way he wants us to. Can you not see how much power this will give him? It doesn't matter if they split evenly, he is forcing the mafia to vote, AND he is making them vote the way he wants them to. Otherwise they could vote for whoever they wish, whether abstain, or voting for someone with little votes to make it look like they are trying to be helpful. The fact that he has that power means he is forcing the mafia to play on his own terms. That puts the mafia at a disadvantage because that means they will be voting for their fellow teammates (as shown with Mandolar). He sets up the suspects, yes, he does, it gives him a lot of power, but I see no reason as to not trust him as of yet. No detectives have spoken up yet, I've talked to him in PMs a couple times, and he seems no threat to me at all as a townie. Therefore, until he pulls some stunt that warrants enough suspicion, I have no problem with him using such power to have the town move forward in lynching mafia. Also, even if I did have a problem with it, there would be nothing I could do since the vast majority of the town trusts Ace, and will follow him.
Well done for once again, missing my point entirely. Also good job on skimming over the bits of my original post you didn't care to argue with.
Yes criminals had to vote against Mandolar. He was dead anyway, and the mafia would not have swayed the vote in any case.
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I realise Ace is highly trustworthy. I realise most of the town will follow him whatever he decides to do. What does that matter though?
Highly trustworthy does not mean he is incapable of making mistakes.
Highly trustworthy does not mean is can't be a demon in disguise.
Highly trustworthy DOES NOT mean that townies should defer ALL power to him, as we are in danger of doing currently.
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Sigh, first of all, I am not Ace, I am Alventenie, not a mayor, just a townie.
Also, based off of your first post, the 1/7 groups is statistically the worst decision to try to go after in theory (which is what you are basing your post on). In reality, it moves us closer to 1 mafia, but that could take up to 2 more turns to find (say he is in the 4 group, split 2/2, then split 1/1), where as the group of 10/58 could be split into smaller groups which find more mafia in smaller groups (you could easily see 4 or 5 mafia in a group of 14 the very next day, which is anywhere from 27%-32% chance of mafia), but aside from that, we find innocent townies. Yes, find the 1/7 group will find us 6 innocents, but breaking up the large group of 58, we could find groups of 14 or more innocent people. A big deal with this is the number of detective abilities we are allowed to use, therefore eventually some groups won't be questioned about. Therefore while i see that 1/7 is easier to figure out, I would rather move along with the 2 groups of 29 because you are going to find more mafia faster, giving vigilantes targets, allowing us to reduce mafia kill count faster.
Finding one mafia compared to finding 10 mafia, I will stay on the 10 side. Its taking a risk, but that risk has a much larger reward compared to finding the 1 mafia (which Ace has already stated that we will find that one, because he is checking the group of 7 as well as the 2 groups of 29). So I really don't see why its such a huge deal that he is making people vote the way he wants to tomorrow. As it stands, nobody has spoken against Ace, so he is trustworthy, both the group of 7 and 58 will be checked tomorrow (you said we should check the group of 7, its being done already).
Cross checking the lists takes extra time, more notes, and most of all, sometimes it doesn't work. I would rather go with a concrete list of, I know this many people on this list are Mafia, so I want to keep it that way. I have no problem with that thinking, and until it proves ineffective I believe its the route that Ace is going to take for finding mafia.
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On March 26 2008 16:52 Ghar wrote:
The currently list nets half the Mafia. I believe working with that information is a good idea. Cross analyzing them will reduce the list down substantially.
Working on abstained voters, you can't really work on them can you?
On that point:
Ace is not suggesting we Cross Reference. His plan involves splitting the list and re-checking numbers.
Cross referencing is taking a new sample, and a new number... and seeing how many people are on both lists, how many people suddenly dropped out from voting. How many people aren't on either list and so forth.
Working with abstained voters:
Chuiu, can detectives check abstain lists?
We can ask why they abstained, check the number of times they abstain, look for patterns of inactivity or unwillingness to vote... Suggesting that abstaining voters aren't able to be examined is highly flawed. (Remember inactive non-voters are kicked).
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You can cross reference a fresh sample in the future, this split will also have useful information. Since Ace has surefire mafia targets right now. I'm uncertain about Wurm being a suspect, but if he has another situation like Mandalor, then a bandwagon vote will be best the next day. But that doesn't provide too much data, so splitting the bandwagon is better. When there are no more leads and the votes deviate then cross referencing comes into play.
In addition, any mafia that enters the split bandwagon will alter the mafia count, they can be quickly isolated. Any innocents that enter the bandwagon without altering the mafia count can be crossed off as innocent.
And your approach on the abstained can also be carried out at the same time as Ace's plan. I don't know how useful the information gained from it is though.
On March 26 2008 17:01 Alethios wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2008 16:52 Ghar wrote:
The currently list nets half the Mafia. I believe working with that information is a good idea. Cross analyzing them will reduce the list down substantially.
Working on abstained voters, you can't really work on them can you? On that point: Ace is not suggesting we Cross Reference. His plan involves splitting the list and re-checking numbers. Cross referencing is taking a new sample, and a new number... and seeing how many people are on both lists, how many people suddenly dropped out from voting. How many people aren't on either list and so forth. Working with abstained voters: Chuiu, can detectives check abstain lists?We can ask why they abstained, check the number of times they abstain, look for patterns of inactivity or unwillingness to vote... Suggesting that abstaining voters aren't able to be examined is highly flawed. (Remember inactive non-voters are kicked).
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On March 26 2008 16:56 Alethios wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2008 16:49 Alventenie wrote:On March 26 2008 16:44 Alethios wrote:On March 26 2008 16:38 Alventenie wrote:
Ok, I'll post about your argument, I didn't use a calculator, but i have rough numbers for you.
Saying using the powers on 2x groups of 29 on a 10/58 group of mafia is his worst choice (it isnt, the 1/7 is). That means the remaining people are thrown into a group of (103-65 = 38), that means 9/38 (~23.4%) of guessing. The only problem with having those 38 vote, is that
A) They all voted for different people/abstained
B) They didn't vote at all, meaning they are away, not wanting to post
So what Ace is doing is he is having the people he know for sure posted and voted, to use them, rather than trying an uncertainty of getting people that may be away/inactive to vote. That is why his way is the most reasonable way of doing the votes. If i had anything to guess at, he probably will use a double lynch tomorrow because of the 2 groups, because otherwise you will have 2 even groups (but that could change with the day post) 1) Lets say we do the split. (putting aside all the concerns about where that might leave us) Lets look at the numbers. Chances are, the Death Cult members will be split reasonably evenly amongst the groups, resulting in similar percentages to what we have now. Nothing can be done with this information, but to repeat the process. Resulting in multiple Kangaroo courts each time hoping that we get lucky and a Mafia member is singled out. 2) He sets up the suspects, uses the double lynch and forces us to vote the way he wants us to. Can you not see how much power this will give him? It doesn't matter if they split evenly, he is forcing the mafia to vote, AND he is making them vote the way he wants them to. Otherwise they could vote for whoever they wish, whether abstain, or voting for someone with little votes to make it look like they are trying to be helpful. The fact that he has that power means he is forcing the mafia to play on his own terms. That puts the mafia at a disadvantage because that means they will be voting for their fellow teammates (as shown with Mandolar). He sets up the suspects, yes, he does, it gives him a lot of power, but I see no reason as to not trust him as of yet. No detectives have spoken up yet, I've talked to him in PMs a couple times, and he seems no threat to me at all as a townie. Therefore, until he pulls some stunt that warrants enough suspicion, I have no problem with him using such power to have the town move forward in lynching mafia. Also, even if I did have a problem with it, there would be nothing I could do since the vast majority of the town trusts Ace, and will follow him. Well done for once again, missing my point entirely. Also good job on skimming over the bits of my original post you didn't care to argue with. Yes criminals had to vote against Mandolar. He was dead anyway, and the mafia would not have swayed the vote in any case. ---------- I realise Ace is highly trustworthy. I realise most of the town will follow him whatever he decides to do. What does that matter though? Highly trustworthy does not mean he is incapable of making mistakes. Highly trustworthy does not mean is can't be a demon in disguise. Highly trustworthy DOES NOT mean that townies should defer ALL power to him, as we are in danger of doing currently.
I did read your entire post, and my post was relevant to point 1, and 2. If the vote is split evenly, then mafia are going to be found whether it was cross checked or not. Working with smaller numbers is easier (as noted in the previous post). Also, while criminals voted against Mandolar, it wasn't because they wanted to, they had to vote or be cast in suspicion. What if that group of 58 was all townies? The mafia wouldn't of swayed the vote, but they voted anyway to keep us guessing as long as possible. Well now Ace is continuing to force them to vote, otherwise they will be exposed even faster.
Highly trustworthy does not mean he is incapable of making mistakes. - I never said he was infallible, I am just saying that he knows more guaranteed townies than I do, therefore he has more information than i do.
Highly trustworthy does no mean he can't be a demon in disguise. - This has been proven wrong, time and time again. While it is a possibility, I highly doubt that no detectives (definitely by night 2, would have been working for him (we have had 2 for the lists of day 1 lynchings)) would have not spoken up saying he was mafia. Also, if he was mafia, why would he deliberately tell us where 11 mafia were? That doesn't sound logical
Highly trustworthy does not mean that townies should defer all power to him, as we are in danger of doing currently. - While I agree with this to a certain degree, I don't defer all my power to him, I could abstain tomorrow, Ace knows my role, and it would not change the findings on the detective checks tomorrow. However, a normal townie should have nothing to fear by voting by his word, because he has done nothing to prove that he is mafia (because of the detectives).
Those 3 statements you made may make sense to you, but to me, 1 is telling me that Ace is human, and not perfect, and the other 2 have been proven wrong, and proven not to be hazardous yet, so I don't see anything wrong with his plan.
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On March 26 2008 17:00 Alventenie wrote:
Sigh, first of all, I am not Ace, I am Alventenie, not a mayor, just a townie.
Also, based off of your first post, the 1/7 groups is statistically the worst decision to try to go after in theory (which is what you are basing your post on). In reality, it moves us closer to 1 mafia, but that could take up to 2 more turns to find (say he is in the 4 group, split 2/2, then split 1/1), where as the group of 10/58 could be split into smaller groups which find more mafia in smaller groups (you could easily see 4 or 5 mafia in a group of 14 the very next day, which is anywhere from 27%-32% chance of mafia), but aside from that, we find innocent townies. Yes, find the 1/7 group will find us 6 innocents, but breaking up the large group of 58, we could find groups of 14 or more innocent people. A big deal with this is the number of detective abilities we are allowed to use, therefore eventually some groups won't be questioned about. Therefore while i see that 1/7 is easier to figure out, I would rather move along with the 2 groups of 29 because you are going to find more mafia faster, giving vigilantes targets, allowing us to reduce mafia kill count faster.
Finding one mafia compared to finding 10 mafia, I will stay on the 10 side. Its taking a risk, but that risk has a much larger reward compared to finding the 1 mafia (which Ace has already stated that we will find that one, because he is checking the group of 7 as well as the 2 groups of 29). So I really don't see why its such a huge deal that he is making people vote the way he wants to tomorrow. As it stands, nobody has spoken against Ace, so he is trustworthy, both the group of 7 and 58 will be checked tomorrow (you said we should check the group of 7, its being done already).
Cross checking the lists takes extra time, more notes, and most of all, sometimes it doesn't work. I would rather go with a concrete list of, I know this many people on this list are Mafia, so I want to keep it that way. I have no problem with that thinking, and until it proves ineffective I believe its the route that Ace is going to take for finding mafia.
Find me where I confused you with Ace. If I said Ace, I was talking to Ace (It is his plan after all, not yours).
Extra time? Negative. What takes extra time is forcing votes for 4 turns to find 1 mafia (and you tell me this is the best group?). 4 turns, each time increasing the number of detectives you need... Thats 6 lots of DT power you are suggesting just for the smaller group (which I said right from the beginning was the best).
Don't even get me started on the time and resources required to produce results from the group of 58... FIFTY EIGHT PEOPLE. You're looking at weeks of game time, and many many DT powers used when they could be doing something more useful.
Again, missing all the points you didn't like to counter. My argument was never meant to be taken on a point by point basis. Even when it is however, it still stands up to your current ideas.
You haven't even touched for a second on the inherent problems with forced voting (for a huge number of turns your suggesting), even leaving aside that you cut out any entertainment that those townies might have had.
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On March 26 2008 17:10 Alventenie wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2008 16:56 Alethios wrote:On March 26 2008 16:49 Alventenie wrote:On March 26 2008 16:44 Alethios wrote:On March 26 2008 16:38 Alventenie wrote:
Ok, I'll post about your argument, I didn't use a calculator, but i have rough numbers for you.
Saying using the powers on 2x groups of 29 on a 10/58 group of mafia is his worst choice (it isnt, the 1/7 is). That means the remaining people are thrown into a group of (103-65 = 38), that means 9/38 (~23.4%) of guessing. The only problem with having those 38 vote, is that
A) They all voted for different people/abstained
B) They didn't vote at all, meaning they are away, not wanting to post
So what Ace is doing is he is having the people he know for sure posted and voted, to use them, rather than trying an uncertainty of getting people that may be away/inactive to vote. That is why his way is the most reasonable way of doing the votes. If i had anything to guess at, he probably will use a double lynch tomorrow because of the 2 groups, because otherwise you will have 2 even groups (but that could change with the day post) 1) Lets say we do the split. (putting aside all the concerns about where that might leave us) Lets look at the numbers. Chances are, the Death Cult members will be split reasonably evenly amongst the groups, resulting in similar percentages to what we have now. Nothing can be done with this information, but to repeat the process. Resulting in multiple Kangaroo courts each time hoping that we get lucky and a Mafia member is singled out. 2) He sets up the suspects, uses the double lynch and forces us to vote the way he wants us to. Can you not see how much power this will give him? It doesn't matter if they split evenly, he is forcing the mafia to vote, AND he is making them vote the way he wants them to. Otherwise they could vote for whoever they wish, whether abstain, or voting for someone with little votes to make it look like they are trying to be helpful. The fact that he has that power means he is forcing the mafia to play on his own terms. That puts the mafia at a disadvantage because that means they will be voting for their fellow teammates (as shown with Mandolar). He sets up the suspects, yes, he does, it gives him a lot of power, but I see no reason as to not trust him as of yet. No detectives have spoken up yet, I've talked to him in PMs a couple times, and he seems no threat to me at all as a townie. Therefore, until he pulls some stunt that warrants enough suspicion, I have no problem with him using such power to have the town move forward in lynching mafia. Also, even if I did have a problem with it, there would be nothing I could do since the vast majority of the town trusts Ace, and will follow him. Well done for once again, missing my point entirely. Also good job on skimming over the bits of my original post you didn't care to argue with. Yes criminals had to vote against Mandolar. He was dead anyway, and the mafia would not have swayed the vote in any case. ---------- I realise Ace is highly trustworthy. I realise most of the town will follow him whatever he decides to do. What does that matter though? Highly trustworthy does not mean he is incapable of making mistakes. Highly trustworthy does not mean is can't be a demon in disguise. Highly trustworthy DOES NOT mean that townies should defer ALL power to him, as we are in danger of doing currently. I did read your entire post, and my post was relevant to point 1, and 2. If the vote is split evenly, then mafia are going to be found whether it was cross checked or not. Working with smaller numbers is easier (as noted in the previous post). Also, while criminals voted against Mandolar, it wasn't because they wanted to, they had to vote or be cast in suspicion. What if that group of 58 was all townies? The mafia wouldn't of swayed the vote, but they voted anyway to keep us guessing as long as possible. Well now Ace is continuing to force them to vote, otherwise they will be exposed even faster. Highly trustworthy does not mean he is incapable of making mistakes. - I never said he was infallible, I am just saying that he knows more guaranteed townies than I do, therefore he has more information than i do. Highly trustworthy does no mean he can't be a demon in disguise. - This has been proven wrong, time and time again. While it is a possibility, I highly doubt that no detectives (definitely by night 2, would have been working for him (we have had 2 for the lists of day 1 lynchings)) would have not spoken up saying he was mafia. Also, if he was mafia, why would he deliberately tell us where 11 mafia were? That doesn't sound logical Highly trustworthy does not mean that townies should defer all power to him, as we are in danger of doing currently. - While I agree with this to a certain degree, I don't defer all my power to him, I could abstain tomorrow, Ace knows my role, and it would not change the findings on the detective checks tomorrow. However, a normal townie should have nothing to fear by voting by his word, because he has done nothing to prove that he is mafia (because of the detectives). Those 3 statements you made may make sense to you, but to me, 1 is telling me that Ace is human, and not perfect, and the other 2 have been proven wrong, and proven not to be hazardous yet, so I don't see anything wrong with his plan.
I see i'm going to have to stick with this.
Nice job continuing to argue against my argument without reading the majority of it. I'm especially annoyed you argue against my point that Ace could be a Minion of Baal without realising that i've already addressed that point.
Likewise with my point about deferring power. I've addressed this, by voting the way Ace wants us to we defer ALL the power (as townies) that we have (to vote). If we don't obey, the system breaks down, if somebody goes inactive for a day, the system breaks down.
Following Ace's current plan is giving absolute power to him for indefinite amount of time.
I'm not suggesting voting for the person Ace puts forward (like last time). Again, read what I said so I don't have to keep reposting it.
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On March 26 2008 17:10 Alethios wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2008 17:00 Alventenie wrote:
Sigh, first of all, I am not Ace, I am Alventenie, not a mayor, just a townie.
Also, based off of your first post, the 1/7 groups is statistically the worst decision to try to go after in theory (which is what you are basing your post on). In reality, it moves us closer to 1 mafia, but that could take up to 2 more turns to find (say he is in the 4 group, split 2/2, then split 1/1), where as the group of 10/58 could be split into smaller groups which find more mafia in smaller groups (you could easily see 4 or 5 mafia in a group of 14 the very next day, which is anywhere from 27%-32% chance of mafia), but aside from that, we find innocent townies. Yes, find the 1/7 group will find us 6 innocents, but breaking up the large group of 58, we could find groups of 14 or more innocent people. A big deal with this is the number of detective abilities we are allowed to use, therefore eventually some groups won't be questioned about. Therefore while i see that 1/7 is easier to figure out, I would rather move along with the 2 groups of 29 because you are going to find more mafia faster, giving vigilantes targets, allowing us to reduce mafia kill count faster.
Finding one mafia compared to finding 10 mafia, I will stay on the 10 side. Its taking a risk, but that risk has a much larger reward compared to finding the 1 mafia (which Ace has already stated that we will find that one, because he is checking the group of 7 as well as the 2 groups of 29). So I really don't see why its such a huge deal that he is making people vote the way he wants to tomorrow. As it stands, nobody has spoken against Ace, so he is trustworthy, both the group of 7 and 58 will be checked tomorrow (you said we should check the group of 7, its being done already).
Cross checking the lists takes extra time, more notes, and most of all, sometimes it doesn't work. I would rather go with a concrete list of, I know this many people on this list are Mafia, so I want to keep it that way. I have no problem with that thinking, and until it proves ineffective I believe its the route that Ace is going to take for finding mafia. Find me where I confused you with Ace. If I said Ace, I was talking to Ace (It is his plan after all, not yours). Extra time? Negative. What takes extra time is forcing votes for 4 turns to find 1 mafia (and you tell me this is the best group?). 4 turns, each time increasing the number of detectives you need... Thats 6 lots of DT power you are suggesting just for the smaller group (which I said right from the beginning was the best). Don't even get me started on the time and resources required to produce results from the group of 58... FIFTY EIGHT PEOPLE. You're looking at weeks of game time, and many many DT powers used when they could be doing something more useful. Again, missing all the points you didn't like to counter. My argument was never meant to be taken on a point by point basis. Even when it is however, it still stands up to your current ideas. You haven't even touched for a second on the inherent problems with forced voting (for a huge number of turns your suggesting), even leaving aside that you cut out any entertainment that those townies might have had.
From this post:
On March 26 2008 16:49 Alethios wrote:
Whats more, why bother posting rough numbers? You ARE on a computer you know. You COULD calculate these things properly easily.
By saying that the 1/7 group is the worse list really shows how little thought you've put into this.
Just because there is a slightly higher percentage of Assassins in the larger list, doesn't mean it's somehow easier to get at them. They are hidden amongst the masses, requiring a huge amount of effort to get at. At least with the 1/7 group, a single repeater will put the Assassin in a new list with, at worst, a 25% Assassin percentage.
Can't you see i'm talking sense Ace? Please drop this plan. Cross referencing lists will be far more effective at singling out Undead.
At the bottom, "Can't you see i'm talking sense Ace?"
Ace hasn't responded to you since last page, you have been talking with me the entire page.
Also from your first post:
On March 26 2008 15:35 Alethios wrote:
That being said, I by and large trust Ace and I have a large dose of respect for many of his ideas... but what has prompted me to speak up is this plan of his for tomorrow's vote.
IT'S RETARDED.
As far as my posts, they were directed at mostly this. All your point from my point of view is about tomorrows votes, not future votes past tomorrow. Therefore, all these extra resources that you say I am saying we should do (I put them out there as something that could happen, because as it is now, that is what Ace's plan is, I don't know if he will continue to use that as his plan or not). Therefore a majority of your counter points (or first points according to you) are from what I am saying about days past tomorrow. Don't think like that, I am posting because you say this plan is retarded for tomorrow's votes, not day 4, or 5, or 6, but day 3. So until you get over the fact that I am talking about tomorrow, I am going to ask you to stop having negativity towards me about future days. Ace could have a different plan for then, I don't know, all I know is what the plan is tomorrow.
Also, as much as I hate to say it, but if people aren't having fun playing mafia this way, maybe mafia isn't for them. I myself am having a good time, whether you or other people aren't means you are playing for different reasons than I, or that your concept of fun is different of mine.
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On March 26 2008 16:18 Alethios wrote:
Put simply... 1/7 Guilty in the first lot (this is your better sample) is still only 14.3% mafia. Compare this to the total murderers in the game, over the total players. 22/130 = 16.9% mafia
Then you have your 10/58 Guilty in the second lot.... Which is slightly more at 10/58 = 17.2% but still not far from the mean. Furthermore, much more effort is required to separate out these mafia than in the first lot.
Seriously... I don't buy your "math isn't adding up" for a second. I realise that (assuming you ARE town) you have to maintain the trust of the town, but persisting with this stupid scheme isn't helping in the slightest.
You're still wrong, Out of those 7 people you think I don't know that some of them are 100% innocent?
At this point if you don't realize I'm innocent I cant but help in thinking you're either purposely trying to mislead the town or just plain old haven't been reading the thread.
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On March 26 2008 17:18 Alethios wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2008 17:10 Alventenie wrote:On March 26 2008 16:56 Alethios wrote:On March 26 2008 16:49 Alventenie wrote:On March 26 2008 16:44 Alethios wrote:On March 26 2008 16:38 Alventenie wrote:
Ok, I'll post about your argument, I didn't use a calculator, but i have rough numbers for you.
Saying using the powers on 2x groups of 29 on a 10/58 group of mafia is his worst choice (it isnt, the 1/7 is). That means the remaining people are thrown into a group of (103-65 = 38), that means 9/38 (~23.4%) of guessing. The only problem with having those 38 vote, is that
A) They all voted for different people/abstained
B) They didn't vote at all, meaning they are away, not wanting to post
So what Ace is doing is he is having the people he know for sure posted and voted, to use them, rather than trying an uncertainty of getting people that may be away/inactive to vote. That is why his way is the most reasonable way of doing the votes. If i had anything to guess at, he probably will use a double lynch tomorrow because of the 2 groups, because otherwise you will have 2 even groups (but that could change with the day post) 1) Lets say we do the split. (putting aside all the concerns about where that might leave us) Lets look at the numbers. Chances are, the Death Cult members will be split reasonably evenly amongst the groups, resulting in similar percentages to what we have now. Nothing can be done with this information, but to repeat the process. Resulting in multiple Kangaroo courts each time hoping that we get lucky and a Mafia member is singled out. 2) He sets up the suspects, uses the double lynch and forces us to vote the way he wants us to. Can you not see how much power this will give him? It doesn't matter if they split evenly, he is forcing the mafia to vote, AND he is making them vote the way he wants them to. Otherwise they could vote for whoever they wish, whether abstain, or voting for someone with little votes to make it look like they are trying to be helpful. The fact that he has that power means he is forcing the mafia to play on his own terms. That puts the mafia at a disadvantage because that means they will be voting for their fellow teammates (as shown with Mandolar). He sets up the suspects, yes, he does, it gives him a lot of power, but I see no reason as to not trust him as of yet. No detectives have spoken up yet, I've talked to him in PMs a couple times, and he seems no threat to me at all as a townie. Therefore, until he pulls some stunt that warrants enough suspicion, I have no problem with him using such power to have the town move forward in lynching mafia. Also, even if I did have a problem with it, there would be nothing I could do since the vast majority of the town trusts Ace, and will follow him. Well done for once again, missing my point entirely. Also good job on skimming over the bits of my original post you didn't care to argue with. Yes criminals had to vote against Mandolar. He was dead anyway, and the mafia would not have swayed the vote in any case. ---------- I realise Ace is highly trustworthy. I realise most of the town will follow him whatever he decides to do. What does that matter though? Highly trustworthy does not mean he is incapable of making mistakes. Highly trustworthy does not mean is can't be a demon in disguise. Highly trustworthy DOES NOT mean that townies should defer ALL power to him, as we are in danger of doing currently. I did read your entire post, and my post was relevant to point 1, and 2. If the vote is split evenly, then mafia are going to be found whether it was cross checked or not. Working with smaller numbers is easier (as noted in the previous post). Also, while criminals voted against Mandolar, it wasn't because they wanted to, they had to vote or be cast in suspicion. What if that group of 58 was all townies? The mafia wouldn't of swayed the vote, but they voted anyway to keep us guessing as long as possible. Well now Ace is continuing to force them to vote, otherwise they will be exposed even faster. Highly trustworthy does not mean he is incapable of making mistakes. - I never said he was infallible, I am just saying that he knows more guaranteed townies than I do, therefore he has more information than i do. Highly trustworthy does no mean he can't be a demon in disguise. - This has been proven wrong, time and time again. While it is a possibility, I highly doubt that no detectives (definitely by night 2, would have been working for him (we have had 2 for the lists of day 1 lynchings)) would have not spoken up saying he was mafia. Also, if he was mafia, why would he deliberately tell us where 11 mafia were? That doesn't sound logical Highly trustworthy does not mean that townies should defer all power to him, as we are in danger of doing currently. - While I agree with this to a certain degree, I don't defer all my power to him, I could abstain tomorrow, Ace knows my role, and it would not change the findings on the detective checks tomorrow. However, a normal townie should have nothing to fear by voting by his word, because he has done nothing to prove that he is mafia (because of the detectives). Those 3 statements you made may make sense to you, but to me, 1 is telling me that Ace is human, and not perfect, and the other 2 have been proven wrong, and proven not to be hazardous yet, so I don't see anything wrong with his plan. I see i'm going to have to stick with this. Nice job continuing to argue against my argument without reading the majority of it. I'm especially annoyed you argue against my point that Ace could be a Minion of Baal without realising that i've already addressed that point. Likewise with my point about deferring power. I've addressed this, by voting the way Ace wants us to we defer ALL the power (as townies) that we have (to vote). If we don't obey, the system breaks down, if somebody goes inactive for a day, the system breaks down. Following Ace's current plan is giving absolute power to him for indefinite amount of time. I'm not suggesting voting for the person Ace puts forward (like last time). Again, read what I said so I don't have to keep reposting it.
I know you are not suggesting we vote for the person Ace puts forward tomorrow, you are against it. I've been posting this entire last page about how we should follow Ace's plan, not against it (like you have). If I was against his plan I wouldn't even of bothered posting, however as you said, if people don't follow the plan, it will break down, to an extent. If mafia don't follow the voting plan, then we find ourselves lots of townies, if townies don't follow it, we find some townies, but gain little ground finding mafia.
And for the last thing I have to say (its 4:30 am, I am kind of tired), I have addressed your points in your argument, you just seem that what I am saying doesn't apply to them. If you wanted me to break your post down sentence by sentence I could, but I was answering generally to the points that you seemed to advocate.
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