|
On March 09 2024 13:03 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 13:01 Jealous wrote:On March 09 2024 12:53 Vivax wrote:On March 09 2024 12:49 Jealous wrote:On March 09 2024 12:21 Jealous wrote:On March 09 2024 12:08 Vivax wrote:
Very good play by Oats.
Good luck with the copcake shot dp.
VE tomorrow most likely. So you think this was a double bus situation and people used it as an opportunity to look more townie for remaining on Oats? Or maybe this is just a bad idea, to go after the second wagon? And maybe it would be very convenient for some people who spearheaded second wagons? Hmm 🤔 Vivax where you going? These weren't entirely rhetorical, I want to hear your thoughts on this. It‘s the same wifom from him not claiming BG or ccing or claiming another role that made him look townie to me today. Need to reread beginning of a D1 tbh because he seemed off to me and DP. Later I tried to get traction too but can‘t remember who blocked. So you do think it was a double bus? Because otherwise there would be no reason to lynch VE after Oats if it wasn't, right? How should I know ? I don‘t even think about it because it‘s easier to lynch VE and find out. It‘s like you are trying to construct a ve is town narrative because I can‘t prove it‘s not a double bus smh
I didn't ask you to prove it, it's more like I'm wondering why "VE is 100% the next lynch" is your proven stance on the issue. Hence "think," also. I'm not asking for you to bend time and space. Basically all you have to do is say is you believe that the outcomes of this vote, the shennanies that happened before it, and the fact that people pushed other wagons don't change anything and we should still try to lynch VE. Just say that.
|
On March 09 2024 13:03 JacobStrangelove wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 12:57 Jealous wrote:On March 09 2024 12:34 Rels wrote:Happy about that one  On March 05 2024 03:45 Rels wrote:On March 04 2024 12:28 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 04 2024 12:24 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 04 2024 12:19 Trfel wrote:On March 04 2024 12:16 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 04 2024 12:14 Trfel wrote:On March 04 2024 12:11 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
hbd Trfel,
I'm thinking of running for mayor, we haven't had mayor elections in a looong time (or I haven't played in a game with mayor elections in a long time). May I ask, why should we vote for you as mayor? Well first off I didn't say pregame I'd vote for Palmar and then change my mind once the game started. Secondly I don't think I've ever been a mayor before. Thirdly I pledge to make my personal lynch a town lynch and will select whoever is the second in votes at the end of the day. Seems like an easy way to avoid the responsibility of the results of said lynch, no? And I don't understand why saying pregame that you would vote for Palmar and then changing your mind is a reason we should make you mayor? I was making a joke about Vivax saying he was going to autovote Palmar pregame and then immediately changed his mind. Imo the Mayor KP is town KP, not a oneshot Day vig. It's not about avoiding responsibility it's about giving the town a chance to pull a 2for1 on D1. Actually I'll cement that point, if I'm not going to win the mayor vote at the end of the day, I'm not going to vote for someone who hasn't also pledged to have the town decide the lynch. Wait do you not know that there is only 1 vote for day 1 and that’s for the mayor I know that's a super early post (that's actually the earliest post in my "opened waiting to be revisited" tabs). I didn't like it at the time, and I still don't like it Like, it can originate from 2 situations: town having not read the OP, or scum faking this to appear like a town having not read the OP If it comes from town, I don't understand how you can say something as assertive as "Wait do you not know that there is X" when you should know you. I know I would never write something like this without checking it a few times and making sure I'm right If it comes from scum, I can see it. That just means he played the "I'm clueless" card, and made a mistake by pushing it a little too hard On March 05 2024 03:59 Rels wrote:On March 05 2024 03:47 marvellosity wrote:On March 05 2024 03:45 Rels wrote:On March 04 2024 12:28 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 04 2024 12:24 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 04 2024 12:19 Trfel wrote:On March 04 2024 12:16 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
[quote]
Well first off I didn't say pregame I'd vote for Palmar and then change my mind once the game started.
Secondly I don't think I've ever been a mayor before.
Thirdly I pledge to make my personal lynch a town lynch and will select whoever is the second in votes at the end of the day. Seems like an easy way to avoid the responsibility of the results of said lynch, no? And I don't understand why saying pregame that you would vote for Palmar and then changing your mind is a reason we should make you mayor? I was making a joke about Vivax saying he was going to autovote Palmar pregame and then immediately changed his mind. Imo the Mayor KP is town KP, not a oneshot Day vig. It's not about avoiding responsibility it's about giving the town a chance to pull a 2for1 on D1. Actually I'll cement that point, if I'm not going to win the mayor vote at the end of the day, I'm not going to vote for someone who hasn't also pledged to have the town decide the lynch. Wait do you not know that there is only 1 vote for day 1 and that’s for the mayor I know that's a super early post (that's actually the earliest post in my "opened waiting to be revisited" tabs). I didn't like it at the time, and I still don't like it Like, it can originate from 2 situations: town having not read the OP, or scum faking this to appear like a town having not read the OP If it comes from town, I don't understand how you can say something as assertive as "Wait do you not know that there is X" when you should know you. I know I would never write something like this without checking it a few times and making sure I'm right If it comes from scum, I can see it. That just means he played the "I'm clueless" card, and made a mistake by pushing it a little too hard Does the rest of his play change anything? No, what do you think of him? I don't understand his read on CopCake - at 2 points in the thread we had exact opposites view her play. When she was posting tea party fluff, I thought it was pure NAI and he thought it was scummy. When she pushed DP, I thought she was scummy and he thought she looked better. I don't understand why he thought CC looked better > see flip > immediately filter self to find evidence to substantiate that the flip is good for them I think we would be friends irl.
I didn't say it at the time because phone posting and thought I missed the moment but this post and the build up to it was perfect. Lol'd at this, thanks.
On March 09 2024 12:33 JacobStrangelove wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 12:28 Jealous wrote:On March 09 2024 12:27 JacobStrangelove wrote:On March 09 2024 12:24 DarthPunk wrote:
Vivax flip a coin and jk me on heads. But don't roll claim the coin flip. Nah do it for the WIFOM. I'm not sure if we could wifom our way out of a paper bag
Who is "we" though? 🧐
|
On March 09 2024 13:07 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 13:04 Rels wrote:On March 09 2024 02:30 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 09 2024 02:24 Koshi wrote:On March 09 2024 01:41 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 09 2024 01:14 CopCake wrote:
Well if you are not miller, what are you?
It is not logical to think he is setting up a slam lynch if you flip miller.
And Framer I think is pretty low.
Idk if I am seeing that correctly.
I believe you are town and miller. VT that got framed? Which mafia would know? If you knew slam was cop it isnt so hard to frame the bolded ? in his read list. I didnt check time stamps. This might be the smartest thing you've posted koshi. Reading through Slam's D1 and Oats is his most consistent scumread. It could also explain why Slam didn't die last night. I don't understand the last part, can you extend on it? It's irrelevant now but at that point I was thinking scum could have decided to gamble and leave slam alive in order to try and mess with his check by using a framer, turns out they did have one but we got em.
Didn't you get this thought from someone else like 2 hours before lynch or am I just misremembering? For the first 90% of D2 you believed that this was basically an impossible outcome, no?
|
On March 09 2024 13:11 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 13:07 Jealous wrote:On March 09 2024 13:03 Vivax wrote:On March 09 2024 13:01 Jealous wrote:On March 09 2024 12:53 Vivax wrote:On March 09 2024 12:49 Jealous wrote:On March 09 2024 12:21 Jealous wrote:On March 09 2024 12:08 Vivax wrote:
Very good play by Oats.
Good luck with the copcake shot dp.
VE tomorrow most likely. So you think this was a double bus situation and people used it as an opportunity to look more townie for remaining on Oats? Or maybe this is just a bad idea, to go after the second wagon? And maybe it would be very convenient for some people who spearheaded second wagons? Hmm 🤔 Vivax where you going? These weren't entirely rhetorical, I want to hear your thoughts on this. It‘s the same wifom from him not claiming BG or ccing or claiming another role that made him look townie to me today. Need to reread beginning of a D1 tbh because he seemed off to me and DP. Later I tried to get traction too but can‘t remember who blocked. So you do think it was a double bus? Because otherwise there would be no reason to lynch VE after Oats if it wasn't, right? How should I know ? I don‘t even think about it because it‘s easier to lynch VE and find out. It‘s like you are trying to construct a ve is town narrative because I can‘t prove it‘s not a double bus smh I didn't ask you to prove it, it's more like I'm wondering why "VE is 100% the next lynch" is your proven stance on the issue. Hence "think," also. I'm not asking for you to bend time and space. Basically all you have to do is say is you believe that the outcomes of this vote, the shennanies that happened before it, and the fact that people pushed other wagons don't change anything and we should still try to lynch VE. Just say that. Oats didn‘t act like caught scum at all. Jat looks the worst with the dont tempt me post imo. But we didn‘t see much activity from scummy folk that could have gotten ve lynches instead so gun to head I‘m guessing it is double bus scenario.
Thank you Wanted to be sure.
|
On March 09 2024 13:23 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 13:15 Jealous wrote:On March 09 2024 13:07 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 09 2024 13:04 Rels wrote:On March 09 2024 02:30 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 09 2024 02:24 Koshi wrote:On March 09 2024 01:41 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 09 2024 01:14 CopCake wrote:
Well if you are not miller, what are you?
It is not logical to think he is setting up a slam lynch if you flip miller.
And Framer I think is pretty low.
Idk if I am seeing that correctly.
I believe you are town and miller. VT that got framed? Which mafia would know? If you knew slam was cop it isnt so hard to frame the bolded ? in his read list. I didnt check time stamps. This might be the smartest thing you've posted koshi. Reading through Slam's D1 and Oats is his most consistent scumread. It could also explain why Slam didn't die last night. I don't understand the last part, can you extend on it? It's irrelevant now but at that point I was thinking scum could have decided to gamble and leave slam alive in order to try and mess with his check by using a framer, turns out they did have one but we got em. Didn't you get this thought from someone else like 2 hours before lynch or am I just misremembering? For the first 90% of D2 you believed that this was basically an impossible outcome, no? You're misremembering, I starting to doubt myself last night but this post from koshi this morning was what really got me thinking. Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 02:30 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 09 2024 02:24 Koshi wrote:On March 09 2024 01:41 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 09 2024 01:14 CopCake wrote:
Well if you are not miller, what are you?
It is not logical to think he is setting up a slam lynch if you flip miller.
And Framer I think is pretty low.
Idk if I am seeing that correctly.
I believe you are town and miller. VT that got framed? Which mafia would know? If you knew slam was cop it isnt so hard to frame the bolded ? in his read list. I didnt check time stamps. This might be the smartest thing you've posted koshi. Reading through Slam's D1 and Oats is his most consistent scumread. It could also explain why Slam didn't die last night. This was about 10 hours ago, not 2
Fair, apologies. I do remember this interaction, just underestimated how far it was from EOD because their were several bursts of catching up while working today.
Personally and regardless of the real %chance number, I think this play you described is REALLY unlikely, period. Basically, I was always in agreement with your initial approach to the issue, not the one it became by EOD/vote. But, I understand that pendulums can swing hard when it comes to perception.
|
On March 09 2024 13:15 iamperfection wrote:
so the dumb town tell that oats didnt see right after the day post. So DMB town for sure. Dont think bus right there.
I WIFOM'd on this for a while because I already put myself in "Oats is scum" world right after the flip, so the question was "is there any way this was a coordinated bus?"
Ockham's razor says "no." So does Hanlon's. So at this point DMB has to be town IMO. At least that is the null hypothesis until every other option has been exhausted.
Honestly pains me to say it, too.
|
On March 09 2024 14:09 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 13:54 Jealous wrote:On March 09 2024 13:15 iamperfection wrote:
so the dumb town tell that oats didnt see right after the day post. So DMB town for sure. Dont think bus right there. I WIFOM'd on this for a while because I already put myself in "Oats is scum" world right after the flip, so the question was "is there any way this was a coordinated bus?" Ockham's razor says "no." So does Hanlon's. So at this point DMB has to be town IMO. At least that is the null hypothesis until every other option has been exhausted. Honestly pains me to say it, too. I thought I read all posts and yet I don't follow what iamperfection and you are saying. What's the reasoning being made here?
Oats voted DMB basically within a minute of being outed as scum. Plausible he saw himself be outed. I figure it is likely he didn't unless he had that play locked and ready, which would be super legendary. So, razors say DMB has to he town.
Should be on the same page as the N1 post or very close to it.
|
On March 09 2024 14:14 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 14:09 Rels wrote:On March 09 2024 13:54 Jealous wrote:On March 09 2024 13:15 iamperfection wrote:
so the dumb town tell that oats didnt see right after the day post. So DMB town for sure. Dont think bus right there. I WIFOM'd on this for a while because I already put myself in "Oats is scum" world right after the flip, so the question was "is there any way this was a coordinated bus?" Ockham's razor says "no." So does Hanlon's. So at this point DMB has to be town IMO. At least that is the null hypothesis until every other option has been exhausted. Honestly pains me to say it, too. I thought I read all posts and yet I don't follow what iamperfection and you are saying. What's the reasoning being made here? Oats voted DMB basically within a minute of being outed as scum. Plausible he saw himself be outed. I figure it is likely he didn't unless he had that play locked and ready, which would be super legendary. So, razors say DMB has to he town. Should be on the same page as the N1 post or very close to it.
EBWOP D2 post, was thinking N1 end post. And it's the next page or two after.
|
On March 09 2024 14:26 Rels wrote:
Seeing the red claim and immediately voting his teammate in less than 2 minutes ... maybe it's not possible
Range is like 0.01 seconds to 119, but as someone who was there it felt very fast. If anyone knows how to get time depth on the level of seconds, let me know.
|
My argument is that it is more implausible than plausible, basically. To me the margins are similar to "does Alakaslam fake being cop" or "can Oats really be miller." For me the answer to all of these was also a probabilistic "no." This one is less clear-cut partially due to Oats playing a great mafia at EOD2 so it might be plausible he had the idea already locked and loaded as a reaction to a reveal by Slam, for example. But I am going to base my decisions in this being unlikely until something forces me to reconsider.
In any case, I feel there are better lynch targets than DMB before we get there at the moment, and this helps wide the divide if I assume it as null hypothesis basically.
|
On March 09 2024 14:35 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 14:33 Jealous wrote:
My argument is that it is more implausible than plausible, basically. To me the margins are similar to "does Alakaslam fake being cop" or "can Oats really be miller." For me the answer to all of these was also a probabilistic "no." This one is less clear-cut partially due to Oats playing a great mafia at EOD2 so it might be plausible he had the idea already locked and loaded as a reaction to a reveal by Slam, for example. But I am going to base my decisions in this being unlikely until something forces me to reconsider.
In any case, I feel there are better lynch targets than DMB before we get there at the moment, and this helps wide the divide if I assume it as null hypothesis basically. 100% agree that the reaction time to vote a random partner immediately after being red check is super implausible But that's not the case there. The DMB bullet was loaded more than 24 hours previously
I guess I can see that being true. After all, I was ready to vote Cop right at start, too.
Good post.
|
Who was it that said that scum team would try to be rid of scum!DMB as fast as possible? I'm a bit hazy rn but I am pretty sure that was a thing.
|
I guess the follow-up question is "Would town!Rels as he has played so far be willing to stick his neck out for DMB to this extent and dig to make it believable?"
WIFOM battling against WIOM (wine inside of me) rn so I'll probably check out now.
Nice job team, props Slam. Let's make N2/D2 productive and figure out who was breadcrumming and who was anti-town sheeping.
|
On March 09 2024 13:03 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 13:01 Jealous wrote:On March 09 2024 12:53 Vivax wrote:On March 09 2024 12:49 Jealous wrote:On March 09 2024 12:21 Jealous wrote:On March 09 2024 12:08 Vivax wrote:
Very good play by Oats.
Good luck with the copcake shot dp.
VE tomorrow most likely. So you think this was a double bus situation and people used it as an opportunity to look more townie for remaining on Oats? Or maybe this is just a bad idea, to go after the second wagon? And maybe it would be very convenient for some people who spearheaded second wagons? Hmm 🤔 Vivax where you going? These weren't entirely rhetorical, I want to hear your thoughts on this. It‘s the same wifom from him not claiming BG or ccing or claiming another role that made him look townie to me today. Need to reread beginning of a D1 tbh because he seemed off to me and DP. Later I tried to get traction too but can‘t remember who blocked. So you do think it was a double bus? Because otherwise there would be no reason to lynch VE after Oats if it wasn't, right? How should I know ? I don‘t even think about it because it‘s easier to lynch VE and find out.
It‘s like you are trying to construct a ve is town narrative because I can‘t prove it‘s not a double bus smh
One last thing I realized before I pass out, it's like you are trying to construct a triple bus narrative with the bolded above.
Namely, by saying that scum!Jealous would defend scum!VE by not voting for scum!VE over scum!Oats and being one of the people who was first to vote for scum!Oats against scum!Oats' direct pressure against scum!Jealous and scum!Jealous remaining on the scum!Oats wagon.
In this world, scum!Jealous pressures you on your scum!VE narrative right after the lynch to make it the full triple triangle super scum bus, right? Pretty sure that is the only way to interpret your accusation.
TLDR: Do you really think that scum!Jealous + scum!Oats + scum!VE and triple bus by scum!Jealous makes sense, which is the narrative you were trying to paint here?
|
On March 09 2024 14:53 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2024 10:56 Jealous wrote:
^ Fixing:
Town:
Koshi (previously scum voted)*
Iamperfection
Rayn
Palmar
NA:
DarthPunk
sandroba
Trfel
marvellosity
Jealous
Meapak_Ziphh
Hapahauli
ToTheStars
Rels
Alakaslam
Scum:
VE
Jacob
DMB
CopCake
Slam
Vivax
JAT
Koshi*
Also: "I do agree that either both [rayn and marv] are mafia or rayn is town."
Why did you do this post at the time?
Me: "Oats, what are your reads?"
Oats: "Filter me"
Me: "Okay"
Me: ^ that post because I wasn't too lazy to filter Oats and ask him if these were his reads.
|
On March 09 2024 14:57 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2024 11:06 Jealous wrote:On March 08 2024 10:57 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
You can't all be scum, some of you just have to be dumb. The tricky part is figuring out which is which. Kinda where I'm at, but I'm also thinking it might be smart!town throwing some seeds out there to see who shows up to pick at them. I kinda feel like Koshi and Vivac would generally be too smart to do something so stupid without a reason. Feel like it's been a few hours and beers in me by now so I feel comfortable saying that the bait would already be getting moldy, so no harm in my outing my suspicions that some of these baby wagon attempts are just that: little experiments to see who reacts how. What are you talking about in the last paragraph? Did you do something in order to bait reactions? If yes, what were those things and what were the results you got from them?
My initial impression was that Koshi and Vivax were not dumb enough to go against a cop-claimed Alakazam's reveal on scum!Oats, but suddenly here they were, pushing other wagons out of nowhere. So, by eliminating the dumb option, the "smart" option is that Vivax and Koshi are just throwing out bait to see who bites and what those decisions result in. Like running an experiment.
However, several hours later I figured the "experiments" (if that's what they were) had already run their course to some extent so I wouldn't be contaminating the results by outing my suspicion that this is what they were doing. This was further bolstered by alcohol in the system.
Kinda regretting it now though because I would have loved to see how Koshi and Vivax would have justified their wagon attempts without my saying anything.
|
On March 09 2024 15:01 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 13:22 Jealous wrote:On March 09 2024 13:11 Vivax wrote:On March 09 2024 13:07 Jealous wrote:On March 09 2024 13:03 Vivax wrote:On March 09 2024 13:01 Jealous wrote:On March 09 2024 12:53 Vivax wrote:On March 09 2024 12:49 Jealous wrote:On March 09 2024 12:21 Jealous wrote:On March 09 2024 12:08 Vivax wrote:
Very good play by Oats.
Good luck with the copcake shot dp.
VE tomorrow most likely. So you think this was a double bus situation and people used it as an opportunity to look more townie for remaining on Oats? Or maybe this is just a bad idea, to go after the second wagon? And maybe it would be very convenient for some people who spearheaded second wagons? Hmm 🤔 Vivax where you going? These weren't entirely rhetorical, I want to hear your thoughts on this. It‘s the same wifom from him not claiming BG or ccing or claiming another role that made him look townie to me today. Need to reread beginning of a D1 tbh because he seemed off to me and DP. Later I tried to get traction too but can‘t remember who blocked. So you do think it was a double bus? Because otherwise there would be no reason to lynch VE after Oats if it wasn't, right? How should I know ? I don‘t even think about it because it‘s easier to lynch VE and find out. It‘s like you are trying to construct a ve is town narrative because I can‘t prove it‘s not a double bus smh I didn't ask you to prove it, it's more like I'm wondering why "VE is 100% the next lynch" is your proven stance on the issue. Hence "think," also. I'm not asking for you to bend time and space. Basically all you have to do is say is you believe that the outcomes of this vote, the shennanies that happened before it, and the fact that people pushed other wagons don't change anything and we should still try to lynch VE. Just say that. Oats didn‘t act like caught scum at all. Jat looks the worst with the dont tempt me post imo. But we didn‘t see much activity from scummy folk that could have gotten ve lynches instead so gun to head I‘m guessing it is double bus scenario. Thank you Wanted to be sure. Why? What did you want to be sure about? I really don't understand what you got out of this line of questioning. If Vivax would have said that he believed that VE is town to the wagon dynamic, what would you have concluded?
This one I'll get to tomorrow ET, my two brain cells are tired of rubbing against each other at the moment and need some alone time.
|
Summary would be "Why does Vivax still see VE as the most viable lynch option when that would imply a double bus and basically ignored the entirety of what the Oats reveal means to the town from my POV?" which I think any town would want to hear an explanation for from their elected and protected mayor.
|
On March 09 2024 15:10 Rels wrote:I think I hate this big "I'll list all Oats reads" post from Jealous. It really appears to be easy busywork to appear active and involved. I even hate this header, nobody cares: Show nested quote +I don't want to misrep Oats so I will be limiting to what I consider reads to being their "votes" in this thread and if they ever directly say that someone is scummy/town. Simply "I don't like this (post)" is not enough IMO. In chronological order" I hate that it was updated 2 more times ( here and here). Smells like both an easy way to have a conversation with a partner and an easy way to do busywork
My suspicion at the time was that Oats was just antagonizing people and asking questions without actually ever giving a comprehensive read list. So, I wanted one. Instead of offering one, he challenged me to make one. So, I did. Then I refined it based on feedback.
So your stance now is that I bussed Oats and held on through the VE wagon, too? Vivax accused me of the same thing, you can re-read my response to him on this matter. I guess you have the luxury of choosing whether this was a triple bus by me or that VE is town. I'll let you decide which one you want to pursue.
|
On March 09 2024 15:15 Rels wrote:
FTR I absolutely still think VE is scum too even with the Oats flip, so I also don't understand why the premise would make Vivax mafia
Nevermind.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/VgLm9GJ.jpeg)
