EPTOn December 16 2023 17:40 Trfel wrote:
Palmar
I should say that I don't think it's super likely that Palmar and die_meatbaby are mafia together. But that's unflipped association analysis and I shouldn't rule it out regardless, just an interesting point.
+ Show Spoiler [analysis] +
No conclusion just yet, need to double check. Also I'm tired and I don't quite trust myself to come up with a valid conclusion at this point. But two points that stick out.
1 - Palmar says he thinks Alakaslam is town day 1, then day 2 calls him a troll/unreadable, then day 3 calls him town for the same reason Palmar said Alakaslam was town on day 1. This doesn't make much sense to me. I could see Palmar giving Alakaslam a pass on day 1 and then looking into it more on day 2+, but going back to it FOR THE EXACT SAME REASONS seems suspect.
2 - Palmar's read on sandroba day 2 especially made no sense. Sandroba was one of his top scumreads, and he seemed confident in that read, but he also kept saying things where he seemed to be doubting. It's like he was simultaneously both confident in that read and doubting that read.
In the end I don't really know what to think of Palmar, I was thinking he was town before and now I'm really not so sure. But my energy for quality analysis is pretty much gone at this point, I'll try and follow up on these things tomorrow. Curious if people have any thoughts on die_meatbaby and Palmar for these reasons or others.
Palmar, do you have any thoughts on point (1) above? Something I am missing or not understanding maybe?Palmar
I should say that I don't think it's super likely that Palmar and die_meatbaby are mafia together. But that's unflipped association analysis and I shouldn't rule it out regardless, just an interesting point.
+ Show Spoiler [analysis] +
It's 3a here so I'm going to start going a little faster.
This is post #794. What did sandroba think about Palmar before this? Answer: likely town. Fair enough, maybe I stand corrected. I still think this is a big mischaracterization of what sandroba is doing though.
Triples down on calling Alakaslam a troll. I don't get how he can say this, Alakaslam isn't a troll anymore, and especially not this game.
I must add, I find the descriptions of Palmar and sandroba's mason chat rather amusing.
On December 12 2023 00:32 Palmar wrote:
This btw is a genuinely very scummy post. Not because of it's context but because of the thought process behind it.
Sandroba can easily just say "well Palmar looks town so I go murder train on Vivax", but instead he does "independent research" and comes to the same conclusion to justify his vote. It's forced "case".
This is a scummy post if Vivax flips mafia and it's also scummy if Vivax flips town.
But the good thing is that it locks in Sandroba's vote on Vivax so I don't care for now. Can only lynch one dude today.
Ignoring Palmar's push onto Vivax. I don't know how alignment indicative it is. This is the first thing that really sticks out in Palmar's filter from an alignment indicative perspective, I don't think Palmar's reasoning here is valid. Let's check this.This btw is a genuinely very scummy post. Not because of it's context but because of the thought process behind it.
Sandroba can easily just say "well Palmar looks town so I go murder train on Vivax", but instead he does "independent research" and comes to the same conclusion to justify his vote. It's forced "case".
This is a scummy post if Vivax flips mafia and it's also scummy if Vivax flips town.
But the good thing is that it locks in Sandroba's vote on Vivax so I don't care for now. Can only lynch one dude today.
This is post #794. What did sandroba think about Palmar before this? Answer: likely town. Fair enough, maybe I stand corrected. I still think this is a big mischaracterization of what sandroba is doing though.
On December 12 2023 18:29 Palmar wrote:
Like I think the plan of putting Sandroba through the ringer tomorrow is a pretty good one. It's pretty standard for me to immediately spot mafia on day 1 and then convince myself that some random useless townie is definitely the better lynch.
Did Palmar really immediately spot sandroba as mafia though? That wasn't the impression I got. Lemme check this. Well I checked it, I didn't see Palmar's posts that way, but it's possible Palmar did. Meh.Like I think the plan of putting Sandroba through the ringer tomorrow is a pretty good one. It's pretty standard for me to immediately spot mafia on day 1 and then convince myself that some random useless townie is definitely the better lynch.
On December 12 2023 18:34 Palmar wrote:
Koshi, DP and dmb are my townreads atm
Trfel is lean town but he dropped off hard, rayn is also neat but also lazy
HF, Sandroba and maybe marv are scumreads. some of today has made me think marv maybe a little less scummy so the other two are the ones I wanna murder I think
Then we have slam and chez
Side note, it's weird that he dropped Alakaslam from being a townread. Don't really get that at all.Koshi, DP and dmb are my townreads atm
Trfel is lean town but he dropped off hard, rayn is also neat but also lazy
HF, Sandroba and maybe marv are scumreads. some of today has made me think marv maybe a little less scummy so the other two are the ones I wanna murder I think
Then we have slam and chez
On December 13 2023 07:11 Palmar wrote:
My reads are what they are, HF/Sandroba probably the bottom tier. Still think we shoot trolls if we can.
If slam and chez are both town, along with Vivax being a troll for some reason, this is gonna be a hard game.
Doubling down on it, and calling Alakaslam a troll feels very off, especially given that they were masoned together and Palmar's reasoning earlier. I actually think this is an important point, the first important point I'm seeing from Palmar (in terms of alignment indicativeness).Wait, why is this scummy? I somehow haven't seen this post before. Especially given that Chezinu flipped mafia, the callout on my vote looks worse. More than being wrong in that Chezinu was mafia, it feels discrediting. Then again it's also Palmar and Palmar can just kinda be like this, so idk.My reads are what they are, HF/Sandroba probably the bottom tier. Still think we shoot trolls if we can.
If slam and chez are both town, along with Vivax being a troll for some reason, this is gonna be a hard game.
Triples down on calling Alakaslam a troll. I don't get how he can say this, Alakaslam isn't a troll anymore, and especially not this game.
I must add, I find the descriptions of Palmar and sandroba's mason chat rather amusing.
On December 14 2023 23:42 Palmar wrote:
The list on you is me, Koshi, Marv and Holyflare.
You say "don't let the mafia steamroll this lynch on me".
Are these mafia-steamrollers in the room with us right now?
Palmar isn't really townreading these people though, is he? Meh, he tentatively is, except for Holyflare. Actually, he's probably saying this from sandroba's perspective, so this is all invalid.The list on you is me, Koshi, Marv and Holyflare.
You say "don't let the mafia steamroll this lynch on me".
Are these mafia-steamrollers in the room with us right now?
On December 15 2023 06:55 Palmar wrote:
stay safe Marv
This Chez lynch is such a crapshoot. But I'm almost tempted to just not do anything about it and see it through. I feel like the game is in a bad state at the moment so maybe rolling the dice is a good idea.
How is the game in a bad state? You said that it was a productive Day 1 and you have a strong scumread? I'm really confused about where the uncertainty is coming from. At times Palmar seems certain about sandroba being mafia, like enough to not take him super seriously in the mason chat, but also Palmar says stuff like this.stay safe Marv
This Chez lynch is such a crapshoot. But I'm almost tempted to just not do anything about it and see it through. I feel like the game is in a bad state at the moment so maybe rolling the dice is a good idea.
On December 15 2023 05:19 Grackaroni wrote:
Day Two Vote Count
Chezinu (6): Trfel, Alakaslam, sandroba, raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Koshi
sandroba (2):marvellosity, Koshi, Palmar, Holyflare, Holyflare
Trfel (1):sandroba, Holyflare, Chezinu, Alakaslam
die_meatbaby (0):sandroba
Palmar (0):sandroba
Not Voting (1):die_meatbaby
With 6 votes, Chezinu is currently set to be lynched!
The deadline is Friday, Dec 15 3:00am GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in
Vote count before Palmar switched his vote to Chezinu. I can see Palmar's perspective that lynching Chezinu was purely a policy lynch, but going for it at this point over his strong scumread (or is it a strong scumread)? of sandroba seems off to me. I need to reread his filter again but paying attention to the sandroba scumread, it's like I somehow missed the part where Palmar isn't actually sure if sandroba is mafia and is significantly doubting it. But I just didn't see that stated.Day Two Vote Count
Chezinu (6): Trfel, Alakaslam, sandroba, raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Koshi
sandroba (2):
Trfel (1):
die_meatbaby (0):
Palmar (0):
Not Voting (1):die_meatbaby
With 6 votes, Chezinu is currently set to be lynched!
The deadline is Friday, Dec 15 3:00am GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in
On December 15 2023 09:45 Palmar wrote:
I still think sandroba is scum. Even if I was mostly trolling him in the QT, I feel like he had a narrative that he wanted to push, an ideal target to land upon and was avoiding trying to give too much other stuff away.
Also, while this is not necessarily a strong scum-tell, it always felt like he was doing the "right thing" in pushing for a lynch he likes. My interactions with him felt like he wasn't annoyed and incredulous enough at being accused of being mafia. He almost "accepted" being called mafia and tried to push for a different lynch.
Now this isn't a scummy thing in itself, a good townie will push for alternative lynches, but the problem is I feel like townies tend to almost always get angry about being called scum when they aren't.
It's largely an emotional read on sandro.
Okay I just really don't get it.I still think sandroba is scum. Even if I was mostly trolling him in the QT, I feel like he had a narrative that he wanted to push, an ideal target to land upon and was avoiding trying to give too much other stuff away.
Also, while this is not necessarily a strong scum-tell, it always felt like he was doing the "right thing" in pushing for a lynch he likes. My interactions with him felt like he wasn't annoyed and incredulous enough at being accused of being mafia. He almost "accepted" being called mafia and tried to push for a different lynch.
Now this isn't a scummy thing in itself, a good townie will push for alternative lynches, but the problem is I feel like townies tend to almost always get angry about being called scum when they aren't.
It's largely an emotional read on sandro.
On December 15 2023 09:50 Palmar wrote:
My current team is like sandro/rayn and some random dude. Maybe chez? who knows.
But he is content voting for Chezinu? And a post before (2012) he said raynpelikoneet is highly likely mafia? Here's the thing about Palmar. He says he feels lost and doesn't know anything but his posts don't seem to indicate that, he seems to have scumreads he is confident in?My current team is like sandro/rayn and some random dude. Maybe chez? who knows.
On December 15 2023 20:00 Palmar wrote:
Slam gets an automatic pass tomorrow. I townread him initially, I think him masoning me is a town move, and he just... led town? ... to a mafia lynch. If this was a bus we search for his partner. The simple explanation is that Slam is town and I see no reason to pursue that further.
Wait what, wasn't Alakaslam a policy for day 2? So so confused. This feels convenient given that everyone is townreading Alakaslam.Slam gets an automatic pass tomorrow. I townread him initially, I think him masoning me is a town move, and he just... led town? ... to a mafia lynch. If this was a bus we search for his partner. The simple explanation is that Slam is town and I see no reason to pursue that further.
No conclusion just yet, need to double check. Also I'm tired and I don't quite trust myself to come up with a valid conclusion at this point. But two points that stick out.
1 - Palmar says he thinks Alakaslam is town day 1, then day 2 calls him a troll/unreadable, then day 3 calls him town for the same reason Palmar said Alakaslam was town on day 1. This doesn't make much sense to me. I could see Palmar giving Alakaslam a pass on day 1 and then looking into it more on day 2+, but going back to it FOR THE EXACT SAME REASONS seems suspect.
2 - Palmar's read on sandroba day 2 especially made no sense. Sandroba was one of his top scumreads, and he seemed confident in that read, but he also kept saying things where he seemed to be doubting. It's like he was simultaneously both confident in that read and doubting that read.
In the end I don't really know what to think of Palmar, I was thinking he was town before and now I'm really not so sure. But my energy for quality analysis is pretty much gone at this point, I'll try and follow up on these things tomorrow. Curious if people have any thoughts on die_meatbaby and Palmar for these reasons or others.
Feeling pretty blind.
