Winter Warfare Mafia - Page 6

Honestly I really don't understand the Koshi kill. I thought Koshi was playing well and I don't think it's bad by any means, but in my interpretation of the situation that kill was marvellosity's 100% of the time, since he has been so involved and influential, and an involved marvellosity is as big of a threat as anyone. I have a hard time seeing marvellosity being mafia this game, if he is though this kill is a major indicator as to why. Part of me wonders if it really could be marvellosity + Palmar as mafia, it's not really what it looks like to me right now but it'd be worth looking into.

I could see one reason for keeping town!marvellosity alive and killing Koshi instead is if Palmar is mafia (or if mafia wanted to try and incriminate Palmar, but this is less likely). Koshi was coming down on Palmar pretty hard towards end of night, and marvellosity has been about as big of a Palmar supporter as there is.

This suggests to me that at least one of marvellosity and Palmar is mafia. I don't have any other reasons to support this, at least not yet, this is just night kill analysis. But I think it's worth keeping in mind.

(emphasis mine)
To me, this reads like she is saying Koshi is mafia. Her only previous post on Koshi is here:which doesn't sound very convinced. Not sure where such a confident scumread of Vivax comes from here?Too scummy to be scum feels like a very poor reason to doubt. But the notion of power roles playing differently is corroborated later. Not sure what to think.Then there's the questions about Palmar, this is the second time she brings this up. Part of it feels like an easy mafia play, bring up something suspicious but give a way to back out of it. Of course, I would never be guilty of anything like that Very interested how she follows up when Palmar's play is discussed later though, since she seems quite interested in Palmar.This wasn't the impression I got about her view on Palmar earlier but I don't think it's particularly scummy either so idk?

Then, probably most importantly, the vote for Vivax (yes, I pulled the previous Palmar quote ahead of this, thought it made sense even though it's technically not chronological). So I literally don't know why she thinks Vivax is mafia? There hasn't been a single reason given. That sends all kinds of alarm bells to me.This is the vote count after die_meatbaby's vote. I know others had expressed interest in lynching Vivax as well, sandroba and I voted for Vivax in the next few hours. Basically saying that the momentum is going towards Vivax's lynch, but it's not secured yet.

This is the first thing that really sticks out for me about die_meatbaby's filter. In my opinion, her vote on Vivax looks really bad. There is zero explanation and zero push, even when she votes her "explanation" is more defensive and doesn't seem to be encouraging anyone to want to lynch Vivax either. Even saying she has her own reasons but not sharing said reasons seems suspicious as all heck to me.

Then she is gone for about 24 hours and comes back with 2 hours to go before the lynch.She says she would vote for me or sandroba but still talks about Palmar. No reasons given why sandroba or I are suspicious.Says Chezinu looks suspicious post-Vivax flip, will see if there is followup. Another 24 hour or so break.
Here she kinda goes into why she wanted to lynch Vivax. The Vivax I remember can play a pretty good mafia game, doing things besides trolling, but maybe that hasn't been true in die_meatbaby's experience? Either way, it feels off to say that Vivax was mafia due to trolling because I don't think he was trolling, I wouldn't characterize his play that way at all.Meta dives, to be honest I have no idea what to make of this post. I don't know what she thinks about Palmar after reading the meta. She seems to be scumreading me instead of sandroba at this point, which is reasonable enough given her perspective, again just going to see how she follows it up. Still suspicious of Chezinu as well. Palmar seems like her top scumread from the possible scumteams post earlier, #1680.

Ends up voting for Chezinu instead of Palmar when Palmar was seemingly her biggest focus. This is the eighth (and final) vote on Chezinu.

To me, this screams like a bus and is the second main point I see in die_meatbaby's filter. She seems very confident here that Chezinu is mafia, see the last sentence of the above quote. But this doesn't really make sense to me from a town perspective for two reasons.
1 - Nothing changed since EoD1 to make her want to lynch Chezinu, except that that's the consensus lynch everyone else went for. Her reasoning was true as soon as Chezinu voted for Vivax and remained unchanged. Chezinu was suspicious but seemingly not her top scumread then, why did this change now? Except for that Chezinu became a major wagon.
2 - No protest against lynching Chezinu or wanting to lynch Palmar, who seems to be her top scumread. Suddenly Chezinu is just as likely to be mafia. This feels very suspicious to me.Emphasis mine, relevant sentence bolded. I get the reasoning but given her perspective going into this, it doesn't make sense at all to me.

Then she goes on to say I'm more likely mafia than sandroba. This really sticks out to me since it's post Chezinu flip, and she was using associations about Chezinu's vote making sandroba look really bad earlier. So why post-Chezinu flipping mafia would she lean towards ME being mafia and not sandroba, whereas she should be leaning towards sandroba being mafia more than me, given her position before the flip and how the flip should change her view?Okay, the word still is crucial here. For how long has Palmar been her top scumread? This reinforces the aforementioned point about the vote onto Chezinu.

It's 3a here so I'm going to start going a little faster.Ignoring Palmar's push onto Vivax. I don't know how alignment indicative it is. This is the first thing that really sticks out in Palmar's filter from an alignment indicative perspective, I don't think Palmar's reasoning here is valid. Let's check this.

This is post #794. What did sandroba think about Palmar before this? Answer: likely town. Fair enough, maybe I stand corrected. I still think this is a big mischaracterization of what sandroba is doing though.

Did Palmar really immediately spot sandroba as mafia though? That wasn't the impression I got. Lemme check this. Well I checked it, I didn't see Palmar's posts that way, but it's possible Palmar did. Meh.
Side note, it's weird that he dropped Alakaslam from being a townread. Don't really get that at all.
Doubling down on it, and calling Alakaslam a troll feels very off, especially given that they were masoned together and Palmar's reasoning earlier. I actually think this is an important point, the first important point I'm seeing from Palmar (in terms of alignment indicativeness).Wait, why is this scummy? I somehow haven't seen this post before. Especially given that Chezinu flipped mafia, the callout on my vote looks worse. More than being wrong in that Chezinu was mafia, it feels discrediting. Then again it's also Palmar and Palmar can just kinda be like this, so idk.

Triples down on calling Alakaslam a troll. I don't get how he can say this, Alakaslam isn't a troll anymore, and especially not this game.

I must add, I find the descriptions of Palmar and sandroba's mason chat rather amusing.Palmar isn't really townreading these people though, is he? Meh, he tentatively is, except for Holyflare. Actually, he's probably saying this from sandroba's perspective, so this is all invalid.How is the game in a bad state? You said that it was a productive Day 1 and you have a strong scumread? I'm really confused about where the uncertainty is coming from. At times Palmar seems certain about sandroba being mafia, like enough to not take him super seriously in the mason chat, but also Palmar says stuff like this.Vote count before Palmar switched his vote to Chezinu. I can see Palmar's perspective that lynching Chezinu was purely a policy lynch, but going for it at this point over his strong scumread (or is it a strong scumread)? of sandroba seems off to me. I need to reread his filter again but paying attention to the sandroba scumread, it's like I somehow missed the part where Palmar isn't actually sure if sandroba is mafia and is significantly doubting it. But I just didn't see that stated.
Okay I just really don't get it.But he is content voting for Chezinu? And a post before (2012) he said raynpelikoneet is highly likely mafia? Here's the thing about Palmar. He says he feels lost and doesn't know anything but his posts don't seem to indicate that, he seems to have scumreads he is confident in?Wait what, wasn't Alakaslam a policy for day 2? So so confused. This feels convenient given that everyone is townreading Alakaslam.

To be honest I am having a hard time figuring out what raynpelikoneet is getting at here. But the point is that he is suspicious of Holyflare and thinks he is mafia for two reasons. If I recall correctly, this didn't gain much momentum and I am interested to see how exactly raynpelikoneet reacted to that.I do like the followup. It may not be what I'm used to from raynpelikoneet (no shouting) but it's still solid, I'll take it.

Surprised he doesn't include sandroba, given the discussions he had and some suspicions shared, but I don't know if it's super alignment indicative other than possible TMI that sandroba is town but that's on pretty sketchy ground. This is post #412, at this point die_meatbaby's only post in the game is this:Which really sticks out to me. I'm very surprised that raynpelikoneet would include die_meatbaby in the best lynch list, alongside Holyflare, who he is strongly scumreading, and more than sandroba, who he is suspicious of. Why not include Chezinu, if it's a pure policy? This by itself isn't the most incriminating (though I do think it sticks out) but I'm very interested to see what he thinks about policy lynches/Chezinu lynch later. If he's one of the people that speaks out against policy/gamble lynches then this looks decently suspicious to me.Unless raynpelikoneet actually thought something about this is suspicious?And also suspicious of Vivax? It's possible there is a line of reasoning/association I am missing here, but this doesn't seem like a town thought process to me. Yet he never voted for Vivax.

Raynpelikoneet ended up switching from Holyflare to sandroba at end of day to save Vivax, seeing that Vivax had been active. This is understandable, as he'd been out for a while and was just coming back with 13 minutes until end of day.Here I'm very surprised that die_meatbaby ended up not on this list? Wasn't raynpelikoneet saying we should lynch her earlier? To be fair she'd only made one post at that time, by now she'd posted more, but this means there must have been something that raynpelikoneet liked about die_meatbaby's posts. This is post 1195, before this point what did die_meatbaby do? Answer: just a page and a half of filter. I'm going to assume that the (presumed) townread is for being around at EoD and trying to save Vivax. This is reasonable ish I suppose.Here's the explanation. I actually think this makes sense, this is actually a very valid point. Props to raynpelikoneet.So Chezinu is more than just a policy...Says Palmar may not be town. I don't quite follow the reasoning but it seems understandable that raynpelikoneet could think this.Still confident in sandroba being mafia.Still confident in sandroba.
Confused by what raynpelikoneet was talking about in the post about lynching Vivax, maybe it was a joke that I missed? Because I generally thought you lynch people you are scumreading...Ends up voting for Chezinu. No reason given.This is interesting. Suddenly actually thinks Chezinu is mafia:That wasn't what I got before, I thought he only had one thought on Chezinu other than seemingly POEing him? To be fair it's possible that that one thought was enough here.Raynpelikoneet stands by this. I don't know if this logic for reading Chezinu makes much sense, but that doesn't matter, all that matters is if raynpelikoneet thinks it makes sense, and that I cannot say.How impactful raynpelikoneet was in getting Chezinu lynched has already been debated for a while, I don't care to argue about that. I am interested though how important raynpelikoneet thought his own vote on Chezinu was, like how passionate he was about it. Because I didn't get a ton of passion. His scumreads have felt fairly static this game to be honest.

Then he seems to think that Koshi could be mafia.Then surprised that Koshi or I aren't worth considering? Or sandroba? He said that the game is likely solved, but it seems like there are a lot of people he is still suspicious of here?
This was pretty funny.But they aren't on his scum team and the game is solved? Confused.