|
On September 03 2023 16:18 TankTopTiger wrote:
I read Jacob making the same mistake, assumed he was just being dumb, then proceeded to do the exact same thing. I'm pretty smart like that. Possibly PotG.
Is it still a townslip if we assume mafia QT is dead?
it's less a townslip when pointed out, but I think mafia ARE more likely to know about the phases of the game.
|
On September 03 2023 16:28 marvellosity wrote:
Let’s get the fabled 3 in a row?!
Day 2 makes by far the most sense if math is mafia. Mafia are up shit creek and the lynch is so close because maf can’t deflect off either. math votes LS because he would be auto-dead on d3 with his vote literally anywhere else. Maybe they didn’t expect Koshi to go so wrong so fast
Yep, i think the same.
|
On September 03 2023 17:28 marvellosity wrote:
After a pretty atrocious British summer, looks like I have a lovely warm sunny day for the cricket today…
Enjoy!
|
On August 26 2023 16:22 mathenalin wrote:
I really enjoyed playing last game , didnt make a total hash of d1. Scum hunting was poor but I found a few townies. I don't know how i would have continued in the later part of the day, would I have switched to TTT or mislynched LS.
|
Does anyone get the feeling he is enjoying playing this game?
|
On August 27 2023 17:40 mathenalin wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2023 17:30 DarthPunk wrote:On August 27 2023 17:24 mathenalin wrote:On August 27 2023 13:07 TankTopTiger wrote:
I asked DMB.
I'm probably the best friend you have rn and the fact you're missing this as well confirms to me that you have no handle on what's going on. Icky If you are around, would be interested to see where your thoughts are at this point. Yeh im around. I need to go over a few bits again but some highlights to me. Your push on vivax was the most memorable. I haven't decided if vivax was "caught out" or just being obtuse and confrontational with you , there's a lot of headspace talk that i dont understand. I do like that you are back in the thread and pushing , game has felt directionless I read ttt's explanation of his only friend comment. Its a pretty obvious "play". does mafia make plays though, he certainly seems different to last game. There is extra votes on chez , more pressure is good ,he is starting to crumble. Last game marv and rayn were both town and it felt we made good progress. This game rayn has activity issues which I get but i havent felt the same drive or well thought out comments from either. Something to keep an eye on. LS has been pretty AFK again with a weirdly reasoned read. Apparently that is normal LS according to marv. But i havent seen emotional involvement and he only responds when his name gets pinged so i don't like him. It seems like i need to form an opinion on iamp and jacob if i want to get a feel for some other players. Prioritising that next unless you have other questions
Why does he not mention Koshi at all here?
Particularly as he interacts with him more than anyone else prior to this.
I tend to agree the interaction with Koshi and LS at the start comes off as him forcing himself to interact with his teammates.
|
On August 27 2023 18:03 mathenalin wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2023 17:47 DarthPunk wrote:On August 27 2023 17:40 mathenalin wrote:On August 27 2023 17:30 DarthPunk wrote:On August 27 2023 17:24 mathenalin wrote:On August 27 2023 13:07 TankTopTiger wrote:
I asked DMB.
I'm probably the best friend you have rn and the fact you're missing this as well confirms to me that you have no handle on what's going on. Icky If you are around, would be interested to see where your thoughts are at this point. Yeh im around. I need to go over a few bits again but some highlights to me. Your push on vivax was the most memorable. I haven't decided if vivax was "caught out" or just being obtuse and confrontational with you , there's a lot of headspace talk that i dont understand. I do like that you are back in the thread and pushing , game has felt directionless I read ttt's explanation of his only friend comment. Its a pretty obvious "play". does mafia make plays though, he certainly seems different to last game. There is extra votes on chez , more pressure is good ,he is starting to crumble. Last game marv and rayn were both town and it felt we made good progress. This game rayn has activity issues which I get but i havent felt the same drive or well thought out comments from either. Something to keep an eye on. LS has been pretty AFK again with a weirdly reasoned read. Apparently that is normal LS according to marv. But i havent seen emotional involvement and he only responds when his name gets pinged so i don't like him. It seems like i need to form an opinion on iamp and jacob if i want to get a feel for some other players. Prioritising that next unless you have other questions If you had to lynch someone that is not Chezinu right now who would it be? Any thoughts on Koshi? Thanks for the post :D No thoughts on Koshi but i haven't really tried, same with VE i suppose. LS would be my next lynch choice
Yeah, this still is bad. Tried to have thoughts, townies just have thoughts.
and why none on Koshi? what was the interaction about then?
|
Meh.
That sucks.
Tend to believe he could still be mafia.
Probably should plan around worst case scenarios though.
|
TTT why are you so confident about Jake. Can you take me through it??
|
Marv what do you think of the shot on DMB?
|
Thanks marv. Marv what do you think?
|
DP's GameFAQ's Endgame walkthrough version 1.0
Obligatory before I maybe get killed post:
I think we are in a kind of 3 worlds situation in which 1 of 3 scenario's is the actual reality of the game and our job over the coming days is to work out which world we are living in.
I will outline these scenarios in order of likelihood (in my opinion)
Scenario 1 - Scum team collapse
This scenario basically assumes that the scum team suffered a catastrophic collapse for a variety of reasons. They have no thread control, are not able to find and push mis lynches and their team morale is in the gutter so nobody is trying.
I still think that this is a likely scenario because mathenalin is looking 'classically scummy' and clearly doesn't care about solving the game.
Issues with this is that if the scum team are just self voting one by one, first Koshi, then Math why have they not just conceded the game.
Maybe it is as Marv says, they are relying on us to WIFOM ourselves out of the obvious lynches and rely on us fucking up super badly in order to win.
I guess if this scenario is true we lynch math and then reassess (other option that fits is TTT but I think he is town)
Scenario 2 - Double Bus Gambit
This scenario is most likely if Mathenalin flips town.
Basically we have had a Goon and Mafia RB flip. There is a large chance that they have a GF remaining.
In this scenario LS was bussed because it was only a matter of time until he was lynched, and Koshi decided after failing to gain any traction and looking very scummy after his push on me that he was not able to recover and/or that attempting to not lynch Koshi was basically a scum claim for the remaining Mafioso.
So the GF lynches LS, lynches Koshi and tries to get to end game, not fearing a check.
This is probably the most dangerous scenario for town.
I think in this situation the remaining scum sit in the Marv/Vivax/JSL group. for various reasons which i will outline below.
JSL: this is fairly straightforward, he has been consistently scummy all game, TTT is strong reading him scum, I hated the way he only really cared about the lynch when he was trying to move people off of LS and onto math (in the world where math is town.) there have been a few occasions where things felt manufactured rather than genuine from him honestly i have been back and forth on him all game.
Marv: This would be the most personally upsetting result, cause if he is mafia he is channelling his old skills and pocketed me really hard. There are some good reasons to think Marv is mafia even though he seems quite reasonable and townie.
1.) I analyzed his voting patterns and it makes me nervous, for example: I sheeped his LS read but he was one of the last people on the wagon, after me, and the wagon had a lot of momentum when he got on. He also only voted for Koshi 20 minutes after Koshi self voted. Which makes me wonder if they discussed how they would handle Koshi in the scum discord. I guess when I looked at the voting patterns the concern was that there was a dissonance between marv's position on votes and his actually voting.
2.) There are a lot of metrics that align with his scum play, for example, I am on track to double his post count, he has been outposted by JSL and Perfection. (could be IRL but also tracks with his engagement levels as scum vs as town) He has also been more amiable, which is something that I associate with his mafia play more than his town play.
There is nothing that really jumps out at me that makes him mafia, but if he is trying as mafia it really wouldn't
Vivax: DMB NK, generally looking less town as time goes on, less curious than I would expect. He looks really good for getting DMB to secure the LS lynch, but that is also a bus play that I would expect, particularly if he was needing to manage the image of people.
Scenario 3 - Mafia Vig
This is basically the least concerning and most verifiable scenario.
The idea is that Perfection shot VE (a potentially strong player) while VE's stock was low and claimed vig in order to play the long game.
in this instance because the goon and RB have flipped, there cannot be a GF and Mafia Vig at the same time, COP should check here to eliminate this scenario.
I don't think this is very likely but should be eliminated for clarity.
Where to from here:
I think we lynch Mathenalin and either win the game or eliminate scenario 1.
if he flips town
Consider Scenario 2 (hopefully blue claim can help at some point): I like marv or JSL as mafia in this scenario, probably marv is most likely.
Consider Scenario 3 only if you happen to get a red check on Perfection
If you are town: and I am killed and you need to figure out Scenario 2 without me, you will need to have some thread presence to get it done. That means you actually need to push activity and make yourself obviously town, you will need to find the reasons the last mafia is mafia and make it clear to the others.
Good Luck!!
|
On September 03 2023 11:23 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Oh actually voting Math in the thread right now.
I think with the Koshi Lynch we are now...
6 Town 1 Scum in the worst case 5 town 1 scum after the night if no medic (just went back and checked LS was roleblocker so likely no mafia vig, plus too much kp in the game if mafia and town vig I imagine) so I can happily trade one for one with Math.
Then if it's not Math it'll be down to 4-1 or 3-1 after the night so we can mylynch twice and be fine.
Although if it's not math and then I die because fair enough at that point assume iper dies as some point during the night.
There'll be a DP Marv, Vivax, TTT endgame.
##Vote: Jacobstrangelove
|
In that post you assumed perfection was dying, when to me that was not a safe assumption (I am really surprised marv and I are alive TBH) so I am voting you based on that for now.
|
Cop should claim if we have one I think.
|
On September 04 2023 11:14 JacobStrangelove wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2023 11:13 DarthPunk wrote:
Cop should claim if we have one I think. Agreed unless you have nothing then claim end of night
They are not going to have anything I think.
|
On September 04 2023 11:20 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Dp is absolutely confirmed town at this point though.
Why??
|
On August 27 2023 21:41 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2023 21:24 LightningStrike wrote:
Just woke up after having to unexpectedly getting busy after my last post and DP and Vivax had a fight seemed forced? At least I think DP is town from that fight. Koshi though seemed underwhelming on my reread: He not exactly pushing his own thoughts per say this game compared to normal if he's town he needs to step it up big time. Also Chez not using his own rule right now is pretty suspicious considering he loved talking about in the past how he applies it. If the fight is forced between DP and Vivax but you’re not scumreading either, what’s the angle?
[QUOTE]On August 27 2023 21:41 marvellosity wrote:
[QUOTE]On August 27 2023 21:24 LightningStrike wrote:
Just woke up after having to unexpectedly getting busy after my last post and DP and Vivax had a fight seemed forced? At least I think DP is town from that fight. Koshi though seemed underwhelming on my reread: He not exactly pushing his own thoughts per say this game compared to normal if he's town he needs to step it up big time. Also Chez not using his own rule right now is pretty suspicious considering he loved talking about in the past how he applies it.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE]On August 27 2023 21:48 LightningStrike wrote:
[QUOTE]On August 27 2023 21:41 marvellosity wrote:
[QUOTE]On August 27 2023 21:24 LightningStrike wrote:
Just woke up after having to unexpectedly getting busy after my last post and DP and Vivax had a fight seemed forced? At least I think DP is town from that fight. Koshi though seemed underwhelming on my reread: He not exactly pushing his own thoughts per say this game compared to normal if he's town he needs to step it up big time. Also Chez not using his own rule right now is pretty suspicious considering he loved talking about in the past how he applies it.[/QUOTE]
If the fight is forced between DP and Vivax but you’re not scumreading either, what’s the angle?[/QUOTE]
I didn't say anything about Vivax directly though? But on Vivax though parts of it reminds how he normally plays which very tinfoily but partly not playing like that too.[/QUOTE]
Marv what was this from day one do you think?
|
On August 27 2023 21:41 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2023 21:24 LightningStrike wrote:
Just woke up after having to unexpectedly getting busy after my last post and DP and Vivax had a fight seemed forced? At least I think DP is town from that fight. Koshi though seemed underwhelming on my reread: He not exactly pushing his own thoughts per say this game compared to normal if he's town he needs to step it up big time. Also Chez not using his own rule right now is pretty suspicious considering he loved talking about in the past how he applies it. If the fight is forced between DP and Vivax but you’re not scumreading either, what’s the angle?
On August 27 2023 21:41 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2023 21:24 LightningStrike wrote:
Just woke up after having to unexpectedly getting busy after my last post and DP and Vivax had a fight seemed forced? At least I think DP is town from that fight. Koshi though seemed underwhelming on my reread: He not exactly pushing his own thoughts per say this game compared to normal if he's town he needs to step it up big time. Also Chez not using his own rule right now is pretty suspicious considering he loved talking about in the past how he applies it. Show nested quote +On August 27 2023 21:48 LightningStrike wrote:On August 27 2023 21:41 marvellosity wrote:On August 27 2023 21:24 LightningStrike wrote:
Just woke up after having to unexpectedly getting busy after my last post and DP and Vivax had a fight seemed forced? At least I think DP is town from that fight. Koshi though seemed underwhelming on my reread: He not exactly pushing his own thoughts per say this game compared to normal if he's town he needs to step it up big time. Also Chez not using his own rule right now is pretty suspicious considering he loved talking about in the past how he applies it. If the fight is forced between DP and Vivax but you’re not scumreading either, what’s the angle? I didn't say anything about Vivax directly though? But on Vivax though parts of it reminds how he normally plays which very tinfoily but partly not playing like that too.
Marv what was this from day one do you think?
|
Unvote:
(Although I didn't really vote)
I still think math is the explanation that makes the most sense on the surface,
then the next level down its a big mess with Marv, Vivax, JSL
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
