EPT[N]A Mostly Normal Game of Mafia - Page 7
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
tl;dr -Vivax and TicTock come across as a very natural mafia team. - I think Rayn comes across as very town. I will preface this post with two additional points: - I feel that this is an "all or nothing" day for mafia due to the setup. If Trfel is indeed the JK (which I very strongly believe he is), he can effectively confirm a player as town tonight if mafia gets lynched today. I did not see anything in the OP about roleblock "priorities", which makes me think that he can block a shot. That is a super shitty situation for mafia, and it makes me think that mafia has to go "all in." - What this means is that associations and "building plausible mafia teams" are very accurate analysis here. Mafia is really not going to want to bus or consolidate in this spot, since bussing does not lead to a good result. On Vivax: I have said my piece on his general play. He is lazy and disengaged, which is how he historically plays as scum. The two things that stick out to me in his filter are: 1) The following interaction in which he establishes a Jock + Hapa scumteam. He does so while throwing suspicion at Shockeyy without following up on it: + Show Spoiler + On November 27 2020 22:14 Vivax wrote: Because of his biggish post when EoD approached. Plus keeping up the general nonchalantness when he was under lynch threat, which is his town tone usually. Now that it's answered, your turn. Who are people and are they more than those who wanna lynch Jock? You seem very happy to latch yourself onto Hapa's case here, and then hide behind the reasoning that a majority (is it?) agrees to lynch me. Call both scum equally but prefer one especially eh? The above is him throwing pretty clear shade at Shockeyy. You would expect him to follow up on this suspicion, but he doesn't at all. Instead, his next posts are all about the "Hapa + Jock scumteam" On November 28 2020 19:15 Vivax wrote: And if it turns out he's mafia you just never attempt to lynch him? What would you suggest to solve that with. I still think he's town fwiw. My team would be Hapa + Jock atm. I just don't see how Hapa who is super diligent 'mistakenly' claims a roleblock and blurts out he's blue, and neither do I see how he wouldn't think Jock is mafia. Plus he manufactures very convoluted reasoning in cases against me that could be said in a much simpler way. That's because he's prioritizing the convincing over the validity of his case. Oh yeah that's true. Point taken. When considering the mayor I also took into consideration the read I had on them and I'm not sure if Jock did that. He based it all on who they claimed as their target, and revisiting his filter I don't find strong evidence he had a TR on Grack aside from a +town points comment at some point. So I find it odd he was happy with mayor rayn knowing he was going to kill Grack. Softing suspicion at someone does not make them mafia. However, I believe that showing relative disinterest in Shockey, after very clearly articulating "shade" at him, makes Vivax mafia due to the context of his day one play. Vivax's "story" is that he was a player preoccupied by getting rid of lurkers first. Him ignoring Shockeyy, despite having reasons to suspect him, is incoherent with his story. For context, take a look at the underlined section in the following post. On November 28 2020 21:41 Vivax wrote: Rayn's point on Trfel is essentially that he's hypocritical with how peeps are throwing votes around on available wagons. As for FF it's that he's one of those people. Overall posting seems townie. I still think Hapa started off the day just like a mafia softing blue would. He goes whoops on his RB claim and doesn't have to reveal the role. But that obviously doesn't make him scum by itself. It just seems unusually sloppy for him. What imo makes him possible scum is (aside from various misreps, thinking of him calling my posting useless) his preference for active players in the lynches. And right now he should be thinking I'm bussing Jock and maybe deliver a scenario where that's possible. He seems otherwise content to let FF and Shockeyy remain in the null area, while he should be having a better read on rayn by now. Really good mafia pushes vocal players first and finishes the job in a finale of coinflips. Granted, I can't find anything in his filter that makes me go HA. It's just that I get a feeling of dishonesty from his preferences and the way he goes about me. This is exactly what Vivax is doing in the interaction above. He is telling the story of being concerned about lurkers, but when he finds a reason to be suspicious of a lurker (Shockeyy), he lets it slide in favor of other scumreads. 2) His reads, particularly his read on me, shows a pretty high degree of laziness: On November 28 2020 19:15 Vivax wrote: And if it turns out he's mafia you just never attempt to lynch him? What would you suggest to solve that with. I still think he's town fwiw. My team would be Hapa + Jock atm. I just don't see how Hapa who is super diligent 'mistakenly' claims a roleblock and blurts out he's blue, and neither do I see how he wouldn't think Jock is mafia. Plus he manufactures very convoluted reasoning in cases against me that could be said in a much simpler way. That's because he's prioritizing the convincing over the validity of his case. Oh yeah that's true. Point taken. When considering the mayor I also took into consideration the read I had on them and I'm not sure if Jock did that. He based it all on who they claimed as their target, and revisiting his filter I don't find strong evidence he had a TR on Grack aside from a +town points comment at some point. So I find it odd he was happy with mayor rayn knowing he was going to kill Grack. Underlined for emphasis. At this point in the game, the game is inactive, and I have a 3 page filter. It is not that difficult to read the game and see that I have a very clear scummread on Jock: https://tl.net/forum/mafia/565699-a-mostly-normal-game-of-mafia?page=30#591 Despite that, he throws in this comment without even reading. I do not think a player fucking up a case makes them scum necessarily. But I do think this lines up with his scum meta in that it shows that he's really not carefully reading the thread at all. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
The way that TicTock approaches his Vivax read is very scummy. I think it is scummy regardless of Vivax's alignment, but I think it is especially so if Vivax is mafia. The first time that TicTock talks about Vivax is near the end of D1: On November 26 2020 03:44 Tictock wrote: Yolo scumteam Vivax/Hapa Clearly, he has some level of suspicion towards Vivax. On November 27 2020 12:00 Tictock wrote: Yea, rereading Vivax I still don't see him being mafia. Only thing I could see is that he has himself pretty on the sidelines and isn't making much of a splash. However the same could be said of multiple people. I don't really see mafia switching a vote last min or calling to make Grack Pardoner so the role dies either, but that's kinda wifom. Lastly, I think a Vivax/Jock team is unlikely given some of vivax's posts on Jock. He immediately follows this up by "changing his mind" on the Vivax read after "reading the thread". What I find curious and scummy about this post is that despite calling Vivax town, he articulates in the same breath a fantastic reason for why Vivax may be mafia regarding Vivax's relative inactivity/passivity. I will also note that there's no "substance" behind his Vivax read. Despite this, he continues attacking cases against vivax: On November 27 2020 14:41 Tictock wrote: Yea, the more I look at Hapa's case on Vivax I don't think it holds any water. I don't see why a mafia!vivax would push away from a mislynch on someone he has only stated is a null read. Going to look into the Jock stuff tomorrow. On November 28 2020 08:48 Tictock wrote: That looked like a decent catch on Vivax there Trfel but I can't quite substantiate it from Vivax's filter (I see him going back and forth on Jock and even says he'd shoot FF or Sho). Please feel free to show me what I missed. Had some minor shit come up this morning but I should have some time today. I will not be around for deadline tomorrow however. Oh and before I filter, I don't find Rayns case on FF very compelling either. Ff is low effort but his tone has been reading as town to me. @Rayn Do you think FF has a better chance at being mafia then Sho? ...he's happy to attack people's reads against Vivax, but again, no substance or rationale to believe that he's town beyond "these cases are bad". On November 28 2020 16:51 Tictock wrote: I mean I can respect that that read means a lot to you, but I just cannot understand it due to how I play... I think Unfortunately this puts us at something of an impass as my own poorly formed town reads on Vivax/FF (actually I am fairly confident on Vivax but FF is more tonal) leaves me looking at Jock. He again re-iterates his read on being "confident" regarding Vivax. But again, where is the substance? [uWhy[/u] does he read Vivax as mafia? The only serious reading of his filter (see post #2 above) suggests good reasons for Vivax being mafia. Otherwise, TT spends time attacking reasons for why Vivax is mafia rather than providing substance. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
After reading through, I think he's very town. The things that strike out to me are: 1) His willingnness to go down paranoid "rabbit holes" (reads on FF, Slam, etc.) 2) His de-escalation tactics this game, both in the very beginning of the game: On November 24 2020 09:45 raynpelikoneet wrote: If it is about me then i dont take any offense. From the last time i think i did a bit after i figured out you are town. Here i really do not, since i dont think you have given any insight so far. Its okay though, i dont mind, but i also dont like you acting like this for ???? ... and in around my botched roleblock thing: On November 27 2020 06:37 raynpelikoneet wrote: Okay let's cut this discussion for now. I don't think it'll help anymore. ##vote Vivax I do not at all associate scum Rayn with keeping a discussion focused, especially in the 2nd example. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
The narrative is pretty simple. Town-Trfel and Town-Rayn articulate suspicions for why I am mafia. Mafia TicTock and Mafia Vivax sit back, watch it unfold, and add gas to the fire. It is no coincidence that Vivax and TT have posted these longform "anti-hapa" posts when they did - after the chaos of last night when the thread is more calm. Also, if you are town, and you are thinking about individual mafia players as opposed to mafia teams, you are doing yourself and town a great disservice. It is a fucking disaster for scum to bus knowing what we know (and assuming that Trfel is the actual JK, which no one seems to doubt), since Trfel can likely confirm an additional player as town tomorrow if we hit mafia today. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
I have my final answer, and the ball is in your court. I am around and willing to answer questions if you are willing to listen. I am town, and even if I am going to be mislynched, I'll be damned if I am going down without a fight. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
TT's case in summary accuses me of being mafia /w Vivax because somehow I am pushing Vivax without conviction. This is simply disingenuous. Firstly, I have consistently maintained that Vivax is mafia, aside from my end-of-D2 skim. At the end of D2, I read the thread for about 3 minutes and scrawled out a phone-post with a very unconfident vote swap, seeing that the entire thread had been moved off of Vivax. Any expectation that I can have confident reads after a brief skim is simply an unrealistic expectation. I will also note that my vote was effectively meaningless, since Jock already had 5 votes on him. Secondly, I have made it exceptionally clear throughout all of yesterday that I believe Vivax is mafia. My filter focuses on defending myself and answering questions that I'm asked. This may give the "impression" that my posting is not focused on Vivax, but that is simply misleading. If I am predominantly asked questions about other things, I am naturally going to defend myself, and my filer will naturally have more volume of subjects related to my answers to said questions. I will also note that TT's filter looks pretty much exactly what he is accusing me of. Today, he has soft-pushed Vivax the entirety of today while pushing a priority target (myself) as mafia. Secondly, from TT's case: A big part of this stems from Hapa not taking a stance on who he thinks is mafia today. Despite several times saying he thinks Vivax is scum, and a big chunk of his arguments as to why Mafia would not kill him RELIES on Vivax being mafia. TT's entire case against me also relies on Vivax being mafia. Think about the incongruency in holding that opinion. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Vivax' case essentially boils down to: 1) My "blue" claim is suspicious, and; 2) Why am I alive / unroleblocked. I cannot provide an answer for #2 beyond what I've already said. Mafia coulda/woulda/shoulda done/did anything. What is acknowledged by virtually everyone in the thread is that Trfel is the JK and he JK'd me N1. It is plausible for mafia to fear shooting into repeat protection. It is plausible that mafia may have feared that I would bomb Vivax. A lot of things are plausible, and I simply don't know what mafia was thinking. No one in my position can know these things (unless I am mafia). All I can offer is plausible explanations. As for my "blue" claim being suspicious, let me remind the thread that I may have a pretty decent reputation as a town player, but that does not extend to my ability to manage blue roles. I won a goddamn TL Mafia award for a blooper for my mason plays with prplhz in Rockband Mini Mafia way back when: https://tl.net/forum/mafia/369250-rockband-mini-mafia If anyone thinks I have a history of playing "clean", "carefully", or anything other than completely absent-mindedly with blue roles, that is simply incorrect. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
See: "funniest moment" | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On November 30 2020 13:17 Trfel wrote: Two more questions for Hapahauli. First, you said that Vivax's posting had improved recently when you were changing your vote to Jockmcplop. Can you elaborate a bit on that? I liked his response to your case, but beyond that I don't see a significant difference. I fully admit it was a pretty bad post. I had previously committed to making a brief return at the end of D2 after being preoccupied all weekend with family. I had a quick window, skimmed the thread for like 3 minutes, scrawled a quick post that I didn't think about too much, largely based on thread sentiment moving away from Vivax and onto Jock. There wasn't any careful thought at all behind the post, and if I were to go back, I wouldn't make it at all. I was in a mentality where I felt disengaged from the thread and therefore felt super unconfident about my reads. Second, how much do you know about my scum play? This question likely has a follow-up once you answer. Again, no rush. When I played with you in Holy Guardians 2, I had sat down and read a lot of your games. I had in my notes:+ Show Spoiler + "TL Database has 2016 game. Probably too old to matter, but relatively inactive/passive play in 2 page filter. 2020 game in Emergency Quarantine Mafia - persona is more direct, confident, and aggressive. Still has bouts of "sadness", but more in a "pouty" way rather than an "unconfident" way. Town persona tends to be much more "unconfident" and "self-aware". As a result of the notes, I had you pegged as town super early and confidently in HG2. This game as well. Although to add to meta reasons, I think your JK claim is super town and horrifically risky to come from mafia. No reason to risk a binary lynch like that, or no reason to open a can of worms in the event of a 4th blue claim. And I suppose third, I'm wondering why you are back to scumreading Vivax, but I suppose I can wait for your filter dives to finish. Answered in posting above. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On December 01 2020 01:05 Vivax wrote: ... The points on TT regarding his read on me have some merit but nothing that can't be explained by indecisiveness. Going to add that this is complete horseshit. Calling TT's read "progression" (if you can even call it that) is not indecisiveness. The whole damn point is that TT is decisive despite having nothing to back it up. Mafia hedging/softpushing/etc/yadda yadda. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On December 01 2020 02:00 Vivax wrote: I find it noteworthy that on D1, when generally lynching lurkers makes the most sense, you made that a reason for me being mafia. While on later days when there's generally more info around, not only do you sort of insist I should be further pursuing that strategy (saying that it was scummy I dropped Shockeyy in favour of Jock, who btw aside from things I pointed out that made me think he was scum, could be considered a lurker anyway before we knew he went completely afk), but in the rushed post afterwards, post-flip I think, you thought my reasoning made sense. Reads more like capitulation to me after you failed to get me lynched instead. I am not going to argue with mafia. You can characterize or ignore my answers however you want. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On December 01 2020 02:13 Vivax wrote: In theory he shouldn't have a particular preference for either of us when it's teams he's talking about. And whether you want to talk to me or an invisible audience is irrelevant, but it seems we're the only ones in the thread atm and the only thing that changes is the pronoun used. Who is my most likely scumbuddy? Of the two options, at the moment I think the rayn + Hapa world is more likely purely based on TT delivering analysis on me and Hapa, and because I believe that at this point, there is a greater incentive for mafia to simply bus. On a Hapa mafia flip, rayn would probably get an edge against TT tomorrow. This is not a sufficient answer at this point in the game. It is convenient and scummy to proffer one serious scumread and fail to do any significant analysis on who the teammate of that player is. All of this analysis is surface level and incredibly lazy. If I am mafia, both Rayn and TT are bussing the shit out of me. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On December 01 2020 02:39 Vivax wrote: In my opinion TT doesn't look like he made up his mind, while rayn is very aggressively pushing you. They're not even close in how they are handling their scumreads. That said, I think rayn is more likely mafia out of him and TT. You also keep insisting that bussing isn't worth it, which I disagree with. Bussing would probably be very worth it today and put Trfel in a difficult situation where in my scenario he's jailing TT. Not to mention that Trfel could still pull off a hero jail even if we mislynch. And the Shockeyy kill also tells me that mafia is hoping to mislynch me while it's probably you and rayn. Obviously rayn can't just press for my lynch with a straight face, so he's going for the bus play instead. It just wouldn't look good for you if I got killed, especially after claiming you had a role. I'm not really willing to entertain a TT + rayn world and think the confidence with which you have been pushing me since D1 speaks more for a strategic read than an honest scumread. While my activity has admittedly been at times lackluster, that doesn't remove the impression that your read on me has been very static. Getting anything resembling substantive analysis from you is like squeezing a lemon. What started as "Hapa + Rayn are the likely scumteam because Rayn is bussing Hapa" is all of a sudden "well, TT is bussing Hapa, but not as hard". I have to squeeze the details from Vivax as if I was squeezing a lemon with my bare hands. That is not town Vivax. Also, the last part of this is worth re-quoting: I'm not really willing to entertain a TT + rayn world and think the confidence with which you have been pushing me since D1 speaks more for a strategic read than an honest scumread. While my activity has admittedly been at times lackluster, that doesn't remove the impression that your read on me has been very static. Apparently, my read on Vivax is static. Funny enough, Vivax has been reading me as mafia for a longer period of time than I have been reading him as mafia. From Day 1: https://tl.net/forum/postmessage.php?quote=190&topic_id=565699 https://tl.net/forum/postmessage.php?quote=470&topic_id=565699 Being hypocritical, stupid, or not reading the thread is not alignment indicative in a general sense. However, it fits the profile of a lazy-mafia Vivax. What Vivax's case boils down to is an OMGUS. "Town-Hapa wouldn't claim blue like that. Town-Hapa wouldn't scum-read me like that". It may be the startings of suspicion and questions, but that is not a strong LYLO case. Despite this, Vivax is absolutely sure that I am mafia despite no evidence of him doing any significant legwork in reading the thread, questioning me, or looking through filters. Where is the paranoia in Vivax's play? Where is the emotion? Where is the general "giving-a-shit"? There is none, and the lack of those things speak volumes about his play. Vivax is content to make a few stiff and sarcastic quips, plop his vote down, and sit back. And that's mafia-play here to a T. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Think about that. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On December 01 2020 01:05 Vivax wrote: My lurker concern was centered on D1. Pointing out that Shockeyy seemed very eager to follow your points has nothing to do with lurkers. He dropped it, I dropped it. As for your Jock scumread, it seemed nonexistent at the time considering he wasn't posting at all but you kept posting with the goal of lynching me. It just doesn't seem quite honest to have most agreeing on someone being mafia who you also claim to be scumreading and then proceed to push the other read instead. If Jock would have been mafia with you, that'd be textbook scumplay. The points on TT regarding his read on me have some merit but nothing that can't be explained by indecisiveness. Emphasis added. The entire point behind my longer Vivax post in #1031 is that it makes zero sense for town-Vivax to just "drop it" when the lurkiest player in the game (Shockeyy) does something he perceives as suspicious. That is incongruent with the idea of pursuing lurkers. Vivax's play provides lip service to "going after lurkers", but when he is provided an opportunity to go after the lurkiest player in the game, his attitude is "he dropped it", and therefore "I dropped it." That doesn't make any fucking sense. Instead, Vivax engaged Shockeyy a little bit when Shockeyy was suspicious of him, and when Shockeyy dropped suspicions of Vivax, Vivax's "job" as mafia was done. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On December 01 2020 04:57 Trfel wrote: Claim aside, I guess I'm curious about your characterization of my play. You described my mafia play as "passive," can I ask what that means to you? Because I think my mafia play is more active, more aggressive than my town play. I don't know what to do when I have no read to push, so I'm always pushing something. Over-aggression is a problem with my scum play I need to fix. I suppose maybe it doesn't mean a ton if this is a perception you had from before the game, it just feels weird that your strong townread of me seems based off of a faulty scum meta? Or am I missing something? I think "passive" was a misleading word-choice. As you see from my notes, I do perceive your scum play as more "direct, confident, and aggressive". By "passive", I mean that while I perceive your posting as more "aggressive", I do not perceive you as a risk-taker or gambler, which is what your JK claim would require. The way I approach meta reads is in two steps: 1) Build/understand a general profile of that person in general, both from a personality perspective and gameplay perspective. 2) Look at differences in scum/town games and try to identify how those differences are explained by gameplay and personality traits. For you, my general profile for you is that you are intelligent and carefully read the thread, but you are prone to negative swings in your mood. When you're town, those mood-swings manifest itself into a lack of confidence, self awareness, and wishy-washiness. For example, you tend to post long threads of analysis to bolster your confidence, in an effort to boost your confidence. Sometimes it works, and often times, you backtrack on your own analysis within the same post. When you're scum, you tend to lash-out much more in your mood-swings. These two posts stuck out to me from your last scum-game: On March 27 2020 11:01 Trfel wrote: GlowingBear and everyone else, care to respond to the actual points I've raised instead of meaningless nonsense? Getting kinda sick of this. Yes, I'm confused because one of my main scumreads is voting for the other one. I'm not confident enough in my reads to vote, given the circumstance. If you have any actual help or comments on my reads to help sort this out, I would really appreciate it. Otherwise, BUGGER OFF. On March 28 2020 02:27 Trfel wrote: I'm so sick of getting killed Day 1 for nonsense, garbage reasons, it happened the last two games. Yet again, no one has responded to the actual thoughts I've been sharing, people are picking on meaningless semantics. And there's a ridiculously scummy person (KelsierSC) who definitely deserves to be killed but no one cares. He "redeemed himself" with a single post that contained actual thinking: I was never non-comittal about [UoN]Sentinel, I never said he was a scum lean. I never said I was holding back. I said I wanted to wait for more information and see how his play evolved, which made sense given the circumstance. In this post KelsierSC even says that my two main pushes/scumreads, comprising the majority of my play this game, are both ok. Yet he still thinks I'm mafia. He's picking on semantics, making up reasons, and has absolutely NOT redeemed his earlier play. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
But as a thought experiment - let's say my meta read is based on some fault or horrid misunderstanding of your play. Does a bad meta read make someone mafia? I think not, which makes this discussion kinda pointless in a game context. | ||
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but it seems slightly town-motivated) because it shows that he is here, present, an cares about the game. He didn't really need to do anything, but he's making reads and is invested in them.
