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On November 30 2020 09:46 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2020 09:42 Hapahauli wrote:On November 30 2020 09:40 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 30 2020 09:31 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 30 2020 09:10 Hapahauli wrote:
I think it was very easily deduced from my posting about what blue role I was.
As for why I wasn't killed, two plausible reasons:
1) I basically afk'd for 3 days.
2) Why would you shoot the Mad Hatter if you believe he is likely to deliver KP on mafia (i.e. Vivax)? Literally, whywould youbelieve you have a bomb on someone if you were rb'd N1? Explain this then Hapa? You are misreading my post. I do not believe I had any chance of killing Vivax on N1. I'm saying that if you look at my filter objectively from the start of N2, who is my likely target for a bomb? I believe it is Vivax. no but you are saying this now: Why would you shoot the Mad Hatter if you believe he is likely to deliver KP on mafia (i.e. Vivax) As a thing why mafia wouldnt shoot you N2. And it makes no sense.
Assume the following:
1) <Player> has posted suspicions on two players: Jock and Vivax.
2) Jock has died, leaving Vivax.
3) Vivax is mafia.
4) It is now N2, and mafia needs to decide on night actions.
5) Mafia has reason to believe that <Player> is a Mad Hatter.
As mafia, do you risk shooting <player>?
I'll admit, it relies on a lot of assumptions. I think the points re: Trfel's confirmed save on me N1 deterring a shot N2 is a much stronger argument.
But that's the "logic" behind my statement.
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Rayn, you're asking a bunch of different questions in a string of disjointed posts. I have no idea what the fuck you are talking about right now, nor what is your train of though.
If you are actually interested in an answer, I have nothing to hide. Explain it in one post. Like I'm 5.
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On November 30 2020 09:52 raynpelikoneet wrote:
No your defense relies on vivax being mafia or?
I have no idea what I'm "defending" against, because it feels like I'm answering a moving target with questions on it.
I was asked roughly "why am I alive"? There are several plausible explanations:
1) I have not been active, therefore, mafia may not percieve me as a threat;
2) It was confirmed that I was JK'd Night 1. A mafia team (that doesn't include me) may feel very skittish about shooting into a target that was confirmed "saved" on N1, especially since the consequence of missing the shot means that town gets an extra mislynch. THIS IS PROBABLY WHY SHOCKEYY WAS SHOT, because there is no chance of him being saved.
3) If Vivax is mafia and mafia believes I'm a Mad Hatter, it's risky, since I spend a good majority of my filter attacking Vivax.
Honestly, ignore 3 and focus on 2.
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On November 30 2020 09:54 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Why do you assume Trfel is town blue?
My general profile of Trfel is as a pretty passive player. I believe that carries over into his scum-play.
I do not see a passive player making a fake claim like this. It is rife with unknowns and is not a "passive" play. From his perspective, he could very well be forcing himself into a binary "Trfel v hapa" lynch situation.
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On November 30 2020 09:48 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2020 09:46 Hapahauli wrote:On November 30 2020 09:43 Tictock wrote:On November 30 2020 09:37 Hapahauli wrote:
If mafia chooses not to roleblock me on N2, they are not going to shoot me, because from their perspective, I am still fairly likely (given my filter) to bomb Vivax, who I believe is mafia. So you agree that mafia should have RB and Killed you? I believe mafia had two reasonable plays: 1) They can RB/Kill me if they think I am difficult to lynch in MYLO; 2) If they think I'm not a "dangerous" blue role, they can try to snipe the bodyguard or another blue role. Mafia know that I was JK'd N1. Would they risk shooting me knowing that I am a target for protection? I think not, but you be the judge. Do you think mafia has no rb?
If Trfel was RB'd, the most likely explanation is mafia RB.
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On November 30 2020 10:09 raynpelikoneet wrote:why?
I am running under the assumption that Trfel is town. And if Trfel is town, I was JK'd.
Very strongly believe that I was JK'd night 1 is more accurate. Or basically confirmed in my mind anyway.
Show nested quote +A mafia team (that doesn't include me) may feel very skittish about shooting into a target that was confirmed "saved" on N1, especially since the consequence of missing the shot means that town gets an extra mislynch. THIS IS PROBABLY WHY SHOCKEYY WAS SHOT, because there is no chance of him being saved.
3) If Vivax is mafia and mafia believes I'm a Mad Hatter, it's risky, since I spend a good majority of my filter attacking Vivax. Okay, so why does a team of me and Vivax shoot shockeyy? 3) Why is it risky? I mean to shoot you or whatever if you were JK'd N1? I dont get it, mafia doesnt know if you were jailed N1 or not but they still do the opposite they should regarding to you?
You can project whatever feelings and thoughts onto a "mafia" team that you want, but ultimately, Shockeyy was shot. Have you thought about what that means regarding the game dynamic?
Mafia basically shot a lurker who could have been a mislynch target today. (Frankly, that may completely exonerate you as mafia, because I don't think you would ever make that shot now that I think about it).
So what does mafia have to believe or feel to shoot Shockeyy? They have to be super confident on a blue snipe, or super scared about missing.
Option 1 is plausible. Option 2 is also plausible, since like I said before, if their shot is blocked, town gets an additional lynch, which is super powerful with a town bodyguard floating around with the ability to confirm himself town.
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On November 30 2020 10:13 raynpelikoneet wrote:
i am prolly really bad this game but i thought jock made the N1 kill and i was hesitant to shit on you guys... It was pretty much a jock nk, this doesnt seem like hapa kill but he he has to be mafia. he just has to. no way he is where he is. lynch me if you dont think he is mafia. i dont care i just care about being right or wrong.
What the fuck are you smoking or actually talking about? Jock NK? The fuck?
Where is iamperfection when I need him?
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On November 30 2020 10:17 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2020 10:16 Hapahauli wrote:On November 30 2020 10:13 raynpelikoneet wrote:
i am prolly really bad this game but i thought jock made the N1 kill and i was hesitant to shit on you guys... It was pretty much a jock nk, this doesnt seem like hapa kill but he he has to be mafia. he just has to. no way he is where he is. lynch me if you dont think he is mafia. i dont care i just care about being right or wrong. What the fuck are you smoking or actually talking about? Jock NK? The fuck? Where is iamperfection when I need him? I thought jock made the kill on slam at first.
WHAT DOES THAT HAVE TO DO WITH ANYTHING?
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Look. We're not doing this stupid "binary lynch" stuff. There is enough of a chance that we're TvT that I'm not going down that road.
I'm here, willing and able to talk. We can have a productive conversation, but please, please consolidate your thoughts. This will not be productive if I'm answering a string of random one-lined thoughts and questions.
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On November 30 2020 10:20 raynpelikoneet wrote:
so aside wrom your rage did i shoot shockeyy or not?
Fuck if I know. I'm spinning in circles. And apparently I'm incapable of actually filter diving and defending myself to rapid-fire questions. So I'm going to do this for now and dive for who I think is mafia tomorrow.
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On November 30 2020 10:21 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2020 09:46 Hapahauli wrote:
Mafia know that I was JK'd N1. Would they risk shooting me knowing that I am a target for protection? I think not, but you be the judge. Humm I suppose this is a fair point. Though it means it was a really bad idea for you to make it so obviuse what your role was. Which is actually your pov here, I never would have taken that post you quoted as a soft claim for hatter .
If you didn't, you didn't. I may not have an accurate perception of how my post was taken by others. All I know is I didn't particularly care whether people knew what my role was or not. As I explained previously, if mafia thought I was a Mad Hatter, I believe that would serve as a general deterrent to shooting me. Atleast that's how I was thinking on D1/N1.
And again as previously stated, the Shockeyy shot makes the most sense if mafia is trying to make a shot to dodge protection at all costs.
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On November 30 2020 10:24 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2020 10:22 Hapahauli wrote:
Look. We're not doing this stupid "binary lynch" stuff. There is enough of a chance that we're TvT that I'm not going down that road.
I'm here, willing and able to talk. We can have a productive conversation, but please, please consolidate your thoughts. This will not be productive if I'm answering a string of random one-lined thoughts and questions. I agree with this, then dont fuck with me please nad provide fair points instead of bs.
I am not fucking with you. I am here, honestly answering questions. However, I cannot answer questions cleanly and coherently this rapid-fire and disjointed format.
One, consolidated post. Please.
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On November 30 2020 10:27 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2020 10:26 Hapahauli wrote:
And again as previously stated, the Shockeyy shot makes the most sense if mafia is trying to make a shot to dodge protection at all costs. Explain
Since mafia hit the N2 shot, we are in MYLO.
If mafia misses the N2 shot, we have the following scenario:
- 5 town, one of which can confirm himself as town at any time.
- 2 mafia.
That gives town two mislynches out of a pool of 4 townies (since one can confirm himself as town). That's much tougher for mafia than the current scenario, where there's a pool of 4 townies to mislynch and town has only 1 mislynch.
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tl;dr, it's a disaster for mafia if they miss the shot
I can go on and on about the "math" of it, but what's important at the end of the day is that Shockeyy died. That's a wieeeerd night kill. And given that it happened, the plausible explanation is that mafia was scared of missing the shot.
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On November 30 2020 10:37 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Why does the mafia not just shoot the JK?
If mafia misses the shot on N2, the JK doesn't claim. Mafia have to try to snipe the JK.
Another plausible explanation is to try and snipe the JK. But why do you try and snipe Shockeyy of all players? You know that the JK has to be reading me as town. A quick skim of Shockeyy's filter (Ctrl F for Hapa) doesn't reveal any substantial hits. Shockeyy is also a plausible mislynch target. That's a lot to give up for a blue snipe.
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On November 30 2020 10:45 raynpelikoneet wrote:
That's your claim. i dont know if it is true.
I know people who wouldnt "snipe" shockeyy or even slam, so,,,,
I am okay for tomorrow, i am gonna get this shit sorted out.
It is. That's my story, and that's for me to try to argue while everyone else works out.
It is unfair (and stupid) for me to propose "am I the type of player to shoot Shockey".
But, Shockey is a weird-as-fuck night kill. If that doesn't give people in this game pause, then they're not thinking clearly about the game.
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On November 30 2020 08:12 Trfel wrote:
Interesting.
I am Jailkeeper.
I targeted Hapahauli N1, to try and save him from getting shot.. I targeted Fecalfeast N2 to try and roleblock the mafia night kill, however I was roleblocked.
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On November 30 2020 10:28 Tictock wrote:
Like I know you are down to a pool of Rayn/Vivax/Myself, assuming I read ok
So I suppose I would have to accept a Rayn/Vivax world
I've already shit up this thread enough over the past few hours. Not committing to any reads until I have had a chance to deep dive the thread, especially the days that I missed. Otherwise, I keep ping-ponging back and forth on how suspicious I am of Rayn and it isn't productive.
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On November 30 2020 11:07 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2020 11:02 Hapahauli wrote:On November 30 2020 10:28 Tictock wrote:
Like I know you are down to a pool of Rayn/Vivax/Myself, assuming I read ok
So I suppose I would have to accept a Rayn/Vivax world I've already shit up this thread enough over the past few hours. Not committing to any reads until I have had a chance to deep dive the thread, especially the days that I missed. Otherwise, I keep ping-ponging back and forth on how suspicious I am of Rayn and it isn't productive. Is that a fairly accurate view though? Partially just making sure I understand your PoV, and partially as I feel that in your position you have assumed Trfel is town a bit easily when it should be possible for him to be mafiaRB.
It is mechanically possible for Trfel to be a mafia RB. However, I think that is very unlikely. For that to be true, Trfel has to be willing to get into a binary lynch situation with me. And that's so out of line with how I perceive his mafia play and personality in general. I also think that town JK makes the game a hell of a lot more balanced than only 2 blue roles.
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On November 30 2020 11:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:
So am i mafia or not?
My opinion changes every 5 minutes. I also can't read the damn thread with any focus if I keep getting peppered with questions. For full transparency, I believe you are more likely to flip mafia than TT at this point. As stated many times previously, will update tomorrow morning.
However, I think Vivax is the most plausible mafia player left. He seems to be playing very lazy and disengaged, which is right on with his normal scum meta.
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EPT
