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[M][N]MafiacalFeast I - Page 165

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
April 24 2018 23:29 GMT
#3281
yeah vivax in obs qt when we knew rayn had to be scum was still on HF,

dude was crazy tunneled
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30774 Posts
April 25 2018 11:37 GMT
#3282
Your night kills specifically made me reevaluate vivax and calix because it was obvious status quo maintaining kills. Leaving vivax alive would have definitely won you the game without a doubt.
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
April 25 2018 17:18 GMT
#3283
On April 25 2018 06:29 currentlyhomeless wrote:
btw I know rayn will disagree with me on NKs but actually the only night where we could have killed HF (and maybe should have) was n3. However I would disagree even there.

I will vehemently disagree with anyone who says the NKs lost us the game, it was our shitty day play that lost us the game, but I know everyone thinks NKs (particularly killing good players) are really important for some reason. Had we played as a team and gotten a townie lynched on d4 we would’ve just won.

You can’t predict exactly what would have happened if we had shot different people. For example, I didn’t really have a good reason for killing GB other than people considered him townish and HF was likely to be protted n1. So people coming back and linking me and rayn being scum to him calling us scum in his last posts was just a fluke. I actually hadn’t even noticed he wrote that post.

My theory on scum is that the NKs matter only in so far as they should minimize the help given to town to lynch correctly. Suppose we killed “good” players instead. Let’s say we gambled on the prot and shot HF N1. Then we let everyone, especially better players like Vivax and Calix focus without paying attention to HF existing. Rayn would’ve gotten lynched earlier, and with a PC in the game if he checked HF n1 he would know his checks are real. We’d have to find him before he found one of us and with rayn being scum that was impossible unless we caught the breadcrumb.

If we shot Vivax we lost a townie who would help us throw doubt on HF and continue to make the game confusing. If we shot Calix we lost a townie who was making the game harder for everyone else (and several times almost became a lynch)

n3 if we shot tube and let exo live and check someone I think we would’ve won as well but that’s a very risky play only someone like me would consider, I think, and it follows the rule that NKs should not give town any info. Killing exo confirmed him and gave credence to the checks. Killing tube, even if exo came up with another check on d4, would have ensured town got no new info as literally no one considered tube scum.

Anyway I’m curious to hear others’ opinions there. And sorry Oats & rayn as I singlehandedly threw the game for us

If you don't shoot the town players who will figure out mafia sooner or later you will probably lose. That's it. Not shooting Holyflare ever lost us the game, after N2 there was no chance to do that because it would have lost us the game even more.

I know leaving Vivax alive before the night i was lynched had a chance to win us the game. However i heavily dislike the fact you went completely against the plan we made in the qt (the reason we did NOT shoot Tube instead of Vivax). I just didn't wanna play after that. Please do not do that, it doesn't matter that much if my teammates play good or bad, it destroys the game for me if my team makes a plan everyone approves (regardless if the decision is good or bad) and then you just fuck all over the plan and do something completely different WITHOUT discussing it with your team.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
April 25 2018 17:23 GMT
#3284
basically i wasted one and a half week of almost all my free time for someone who is in my team to just fuck me over in the end.

that's how i feel like. i am sorry for my bad play at times but still, that's how i feel like.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
April 25 2018 17:31 GMT
#3285
On April 25 2018 08:29 ExO_ wrote:
yeah vivax in obs qt when we knew rayn had to be scum was still on HF,

dude was crazy tunneled

I dont mean to be a dick but do you ever wonder why both of the dudes -- one of you have a red check on -- were not believed to be mafia over you?
table for two on a tv tray
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30774 Posts
April 25 2018 17:51 GMT
#3286
Also the correct play for half of the game was never to lynch into the red check. No idea what you guys were talking about in obs. Not only was exo massively scum read the night before and claimed on two people that didn't particularly look scummy but even then there was a higher % chance to find mafia within the remaining group of people for people that weren't myself/rayn or exo.
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30774 Posts
April 25 2018 17:52 GMT
#3287
Especially when lynching the wrong check and then there being the possibility of framer and miller could straight up auto lose you the game because you favour mechanical play rather than reads.
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
April 25 2018 18:11 GMT
#3288
cmon the correct play was to always lynch me or you. :D
table for two on a tv tray
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30774 Posts
April 25 2018 18:30 GMT
#3289
If you're baddies at the game
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
April 25 2018 20:40 GMT
#3290
gg HF.
table for two on a tv tray
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
April 25 2018 22:21 GMT
#3291
On April 26 2018 02:51 Holyflare wrote:
Also the correct play for half of the game was never to lynch into the red check. No idea what you guys were talking about in obs. Not only was exo massively scum read the night before and claimed on two people that didn't particularly look scummy but even then there was a higher % chance to find mafia within the remaining group of people for people that weren't myself/rayn or exo.


Both you and rayn were looking very scummy. Especialy rayn, I had no doubt he was Mafia after N1.
You know that scum usually fake claim a role if they are in extreme pressure, like when about to be lynched. If both of you flipped town then all people had to do was to lynch Exo. I'd take the risk anytime.

And if you don't believe his claim, you lynch him, he flips parity cop, then you proceed to lynch one of the parity checks.

This was what lost the game when I was detective and had a red check on you, and confrimed MiG was mafia with you. I'll never forget that.
I'm adorable.
currentlyhomeless
Profile Joined April 2018
Japan405 Posts
April 25 2018 22:23 GMT
#3292
On April 26 2018 02:23 raynpelikoneet wrote:
basically i wasted one and a half week of almost all my free time for someone who is in my team to just fuck me over in the end.

that's how i feel like. i am sorry for my bad play at times but still, that's how i feel like.


Sorry you feel this way. I think you are wrong, we had 0 chance of winning after Vivax died and then town didn’t pick up on the WIFOM. HF can probably tell you better than I can what his gauge of the situation was.

At any rate the objective fact is that if we shot HF N2 you would’ve been insta lynched by this town afterward cause the cop had a red check on you. I’m not sure how you are forgetting that and still saying shooting HF n2 was the right play. It was hard enough not to get them to lynch into the check D3.
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
April 26 2018 04:33 GMT
#3293
I interpret Rayn to be taking a gamble that HF was the only player capable of solving the game.
Therefore even a 1:1 trade would result in victory on the basis of town derping.

Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30774 Posts
April 26 2018 06:42 GMT
#3294
On April 26 2018 07:21 GlowingBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 26 2018 02:51 Holyflare wrote:
Also the correct play for half of the game was never to lynch into the red check. No idea what you guys were talking about in obs. Not only was exo massively scum read the night before and claimed on two people that didn't particularly look scummy but even then there was a higher % chance to find mafia within the remaining group of people for people that weren't myself/rayn or exo.


Both you and rayn were looking very scummy. Especialy rayn, I had no doubt he was Mafia after N1.
You know that scum usually fake claim a role if they are in extreme pressure, like when about to be lynched. If both of you flipped town then all people had to do was to lynch Exo. I'd take the risk anytime.

And if you don't believe his claim, you lynch him, he flips parity cop, then you proceed to lynch one of the parity checks.

This was what lost the game when I was detective and had a red check on you, and confrimed MiG was mafia with you. I'll never forget that.


If both of us flipped town the game was over lol.
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30774 Posts
April 26 2018 06:49 GMT
#3295
On April 26 2018 15:42 Holyflare wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 26 2018 07:21 GlowingBear wrote:
On April 26 2018 02:51 Holyflare wrote:
Also the correct play for half of the game was never to lynch into the red check. No idea what you guys were talking about in obs. Not only was exo massively scum read the night before and claimed on two people that didn't particularly look scummy but even then there was a higher % chance to find mafia within the remaining group of people for people that weren't myself/rayn or exo.


Both you and rayn were looking very scummy. Especialy rayn, I had no doubt he was Mafia after N1.
You know that scum usually fake claim a role if they are in extreme pressure, like when about to be lynched. If both of you flipped town then all people had to do was to lynch Exo. I'd take the risk anytime.

And if you don't believe his claim, you lynch him, he flips parity cop, then you proceed to lynch one of the parity checks.

This was what lost the game when I was detective and had a red check on you, and confrimed MiG was mafia with you. I'll never forget that.


If both of us flipped town the game was over lol.


Also, regardless, I could already tell if we lynched into the checks I would get lynched first. Which would have been terrible.
currentlyhomeless
Profile Joined April 2018
Japan405 Posts
April 26 2018 07:31 GMT
#3296
On April 26 2018 13:33 Mocsta wrote:
I interpret Rayn to be taking a gamble that HF was the only player capable of solving the game.
Therefore even a 1:1 trade would result in victory on the basis of town derping.



I think this is where I disagree.

I think if you play scum if you worry about who can “solve the game” you are playing too reactively. Being mafia inherently relies on being reactive to some degree but if you literally rely on killing good players to win games you’ll end up being confused when you lose anyway.

Mafia night kills should strive to minimize the information town get because town win by using information to lynch correctly.

Mafia and town have opposite winconditions. Town win condition is lynch all the mafia. Mafia win condition is lynch a number of townies equal to the size of the scumteam (or one more on this forum usually since we use 13p)

So from that perspective if you are scum and want to win, you want to a.) win as fast as possible because it minimizes info b.) never give any info to town and c.) control the lynch.

Night kills only matter inso far as a.) and b.) are concerned: you dodge prots cause prots prolong the game and give info. Otherwise base your kill on whose death would keep the town in the dark.

Killing HF at any point in the game would have risked our win condition because rayn would die right after, no questions. A lot of hosts like to player balance. I can’t say for sure whether FF RNGed the teams or not but rayn and HFwere opposite alignments, and I’ve seen so many games where the best 2 players are opposite alignments that it’s unlikely it’s completely random. With that plus the cop check killing HF went against our WC unless it was with a lynch to win the game.

If I were scum and both rayn and HF were town, I might have killed one of them just to push the lynch on the other. It would still be hard but in that scenario you wanna break up the town circle cause it’s a matter of time before they townread each other. So in the ideal case you try to get one lynched over the other early, and then you can gamble and try to get the other lynched if you can pin the blame for the first lynch on the other. Often this doesn’t work out though cause controlling the lynch takes a bit of cleverness.
Calix
Profile Joined August 2016
3379 Posts
April 26 2018 07:51 GMT
#3297
Teams are often RNGed because it avoids this host meta that you're using. Anything else is asking for trouble. Thus your logic that rayn would instantly die after HF is flawed.
Calix
Profile Joined August 2016
3379 Posts
April 26 2018 08:03 GMT
#3298
To give my two cents on night kills, I think a bit of both strategies is advisable depending on the game state and the skillset of the remaining townies. If you only focus on killing solvy players or those with good reads, you risk town piecing together your strategy or wondering why you're still alive (if you survive to late-game). If you only focus on minimising information that town gets then you risk the remaining active town players forming a town circle, using POE, making iron-clad cases on mafia, etc.

In this instance, I think the GB kill was fine but following that up with killing the AFK replacement was a massive tip-off that the mafia was fine with the current game state. I'd argue that's more information given than just killing someone with good reads or who is solvy because it tells town that they're on the wrong track.
currentlyhomeless
Profile Joined April 2018
Japan405 Posts
April 26 2018 08:33 GMT
#3299
On April 26 2018 16:51 Calix wrote:
Teams are often RNGed because it avoids this host meta that you're using. Anything else is asking for trouble. Thus your logic that rayn would instantly die after HF is flawed.


he had a red check on him. He would have died because of that combined with “if he is town why is he still alive”
currentlyhomeless
Profile Joined April 2018
Japan405 Posts
April 26 2018 08:35 GMT
#3300
On April 26 2018 17:03 Calix wrote:
To give my two cents on night kills, I think a bit of both strategies is advisable depending on the game state and the skillset of the remaining townies. If you only focus on killing solvy players or those with good reads, you risk town piecing together your strategy or wondering why you're still alive (if you survive to late-game). If you only focus on minimising information that town gets then you risk the remaining active town players forming a town circle, using POE, making iron-clad cases on mafia, etc.

In this instance, I think the GB kill was fine but following that up with killing the AFK replacement was a massive tip-off that the mafia was fine with the current game state. I'd argue that's more information given than just killing someone with good reads or who is solvy because it tells town that they're on the wrong track.


we didn’t lose because of the kills, that much is for sure.

the only kill that was objectively bad was the Vivax one but we were already in a losing position.

If there is a single action that lost us the game it was the RB. Everything else was down to our play.
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