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On April 14 2018 17:07 currentlyhomeless wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2018 17:02 Vivax wrote:
Like if scum ExO ccs HF and HF gets lynched, scum won. Rayn gets lynched. Both cops still remain unresolved. wait what if a pc gets cced, and the pc gets lynched first why wouldnt the ccer die second if exo is scum and hf is actually pc, and exo ccs hf, if hf gets lynched first and flips pc we just kill exo and hit scum why the fuck would rayn die
If exo is scum and hf is actually pc and hf gets lynched the next night scum have 2 KP and win the game.
READ: When rayn is scum with a gun.
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On April 14 2018 17:08 currentlyhomeless wrote:
oh the scumlogic only applies cause rayn apparnetly has a gun in this made up scenario
this was already proven to be impossible like 10 pages ago so this is just a waste of space & distraction
What is this nonsense about proven to be impossible. ES filter doesn't tell us anything. In one post she talks about having given her gun to rayn and in another she talks about rayn being conf town cause she didn't manage to give her gun to him cause she took what he said at face value.
Nowhere does it say she has some kind of inventory with a gun in it. Nobody has any damn clue about what actually happened that night except you it seems. Unless you wanna argue that hopeless was shot by that gun which is at best a decent guess cause I don't know why mafia would shoot hopeless here.
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On April 14 2018 18:01 Skynx wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2018 17:55 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 17:48 Skynx wrote:On April 14 2018 15:09 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 13:04 ExO_ wrote:
You guys have got to be fucking kidding me. We have a check on Rayn and HF. One is scum. Yet everyone seems to have the opinion “they cant be scum because there’s got to be a miller or framer”
You’ve gotta be kidding me. Are your egos all this huge? That yours reads are so good that the check just has to be wrong in some super unlikely way or another?
Nobody has presented a compelling case for this in my opinion. And I dont believe for a second its in our interest to vote a 3rd candidate here.
Ill eat my words if there is a framer or miller, but we deserve to lose if we can’t get it together, look at Rayn, look at HF, and figure out which one is scum. what kind of compelling “case” do you expect if i think they are both town if i think they are both town one was framed or is a miller. end of story. yes the likelihood of that with nothing else happened in the game is lower but i dont need to make a case to say its more likely. just read the game, rayn has been trying hard especially recently to figure out the game with me and had very good posts. for example theres no way as scum that he would point out where credit is due when i found something on ever (unless he was scum trying to set me up to die? but i dont get this impression at all) hf is an asshole at times but a lot of the things he has said only make sense from town perspective. most of his townreads seem logical now even if it takes him a while to get there therefore both town, reads > unreliable blue checks i am more than 70% sure that they are both town and the check is nowhere near 70-80% certainty that one is scum because if there is a framer in this game literally the best targets are rayn and hf. if there is a framer in the game, like 90%+ certainty one of those 2 gets framed regardless of alignment. unless they are the framer themselves lol as for miller, let’s say there is one miller and what. 5 vts? 6 vts? 3 scum + miller + 3 blues = 7, 13 - 7 = 6 so miller & 6 VTs. 3 VTs already flipped so remaining non blues are 3 VTs and miller so if they are both town, chance that one of them is miller is 50% rofl lol currentlyclueless, where do you get your fucking odds? Framer+Miller Rayn is framed/miller, hf is green: 2/12*6/10=0.1 rayn is green, hf is f/m: 9/12*2/10=0.15 Even assuming framer+miller odds of correct redcheck is still 60% which means we should lynch one of rayn/hf Assuming there is a gf, both of them are mafia so still lynch one of rayn/hf wow you mustve failed math, reading, or both 50% is the chance one of them is a miller given that both rayn and HF are town. in other words if they are both town, the check is a coinflip between returning “same” and “different” who the fuck knows why you are dividing by 12 when there are only 9 people alive, or why your two fucking symmetric situations have different numbers I don't think even kush can get this high. First statement is complete bollocks. Bolded is just a fucking assumption and nothing more. There is a different check: so one of them is different alignment to the other with 5 mechanics assumed= 3 mafia, 1 frame, 1 miller = 40% chance of fake red. 9 ppl alive means jack shit, odds are taken when the checks take place. Pls go back to your corner near the dumpster.
I DIDNT KNOW YOU HAD IT IN YOU. Actually had to laugh at this.
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On April 14 2018 18:24 Skynx wrote:
But whatever we lost anyway.
That depends really. On whether rayn is town or not this game. Cause I could see it coming from a mile away that mafia Oats wouldn't vote HF and while I initially thought it was HF + rayn I'm now thinking it could be HF + CH, yes I know HF "tried" to lynch him (this is where Tubesocks logic was funny that HF always gets the lynch he wants).
So basically whoever is town between CH and rayn has the hammer. But then there's still a day after.
Oh and regarding the math all your calculations are bollocks if you don't multiply by the chance there's a miller and/or a GF which are respectively the same in regards to math cause just cuz there's a cop doesn't mean there has to be a miller and a GF. And there can be both or only one of them additionally to a framer which makes your statistics completely pointless so
tl;dr: Don't try to math this.
And currentlyhopeless also forgot to unvote before voting me. If he isn't kush he sure is full of it.
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As I previously mentioned this is why parity cop blows before he gets three checks off and the earliest point where he could have started being useful is at LYLO. But good luck going through all the ifs and buts vs GF/Millers/framers/ponies
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On April 14 2018 19:15 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2018 19:12 Calix wrote:On April 14 2018 19:06 Holyflare wrote:
You're not even evaluating the cop checks properly at all. You think we should "resolve" it but that means lynching me or rayn and if you lynch me you auto rayn next cycle and if one of those roles do exist you just lose. I think one of you two should be the lynch as it stands, yes. Unless someone drops a case for scum!ExO. But if that results in a ML then you never ever auto next cycle since that would be LYLO. So resolve the claim arbitrarily and then do analysis on whether the other person is mafia :D
good way of telling us to lynch rayn while voting calix?
if you want rayn, vote rayn
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Isn't that the best case scenario? You just lynch rayn and then do analysis on yourself on whether you are mafia. Damn Im a genius
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On April 14 2018 19:23 currentlyhomeless wrote:
yo tube I want your opinion
skynx
calix
oats
vivax
which one most likely to be scum?
that guy whose name doesnt end with x does look like he doesn't fit
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On April 14 2018 23:48 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am on my to work, i switched shifts so i will be here around 6-7 am until the eod barring some 6-7 hrs of sleep tomorrow. I havent had a time to read anything yet.
Didn't you say you had time today -.-
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Seeing CH post makes my head hurt and Calix at some point arrives at my conclusion then seemingly randomly decides it's the opposite one.
Mafia is in CH/HF/Oats/rayn don't be a fool.
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Although looking at the wagons calix + hf + ch could make sense here.
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On April 15 2018 02:54 Calix wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2018 02:52 Vivax wrote:
Although looking at the wagons calix + hf + ch could make sense here. lmao
It isn't such a funny thing to think. CH was flailing for a counterwagon and he gladly jumped on SKynx now. HIs read on you is pretty much undeveloped. All three of you don't care there is a cop check. HF seems to suspect rayn but doesn't do anything about it instead he prefers to follow CH onto skynx.
I don't even know how this retarded argument is in the room
-> On April 14 2018 21:55 currentlyhomeless wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2018 04:02 Skynx wrote:On April 12 2018 03:52 Calix wrote:On April 12 2018 03:39 Skynx wrote:
In meantime I'll vote for you ma'am begging your pardon. Who do you think COULD be third mafia by Process Of Eliminating the people you think are town. Thx. I'm still yet to have an opinion on Vivax and homeless, tube is also null to me right now, probably one of them (and/or ES). I'll actually just put out what i have atm: HF, Oats, rayn
tube, vivax, homeless
Damdred, Calix/Exo (tvs)
ignore: ESI'll definitely won't lynch into my town pile until 1 mafia is left and/or ES is dead. I've never actually played with scum!hf. scum!oats and scum!rayn fooled me once i think, so there are player capable of pulling off what they did so far as scum but I won't consider that possibility until dire need. Skynx if you actually believed calix/exo is tvs then shouldnt you be sure calix is scum now ##vote skynx
Cause Skynx has been voting HF all day.
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On April 15 2018 03:03 Calix wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2018 03:01 Vivax wrote:On April 15 2018 02:54 Calix wrote:On April 15 2018 02:52 Vivax wrote:
Although looking at the wagons calix + hf + ch could make sense here. lmao It isn't such a funny thing to think. CH was flailing for a counterwagon and he gladly jumped on SKynx now. HIs read on you is pretty much undeveloped. All three of you don't care there is a cop check. HF seems to suspect rayn but doesn't do anything about it instead he prefers to follow CH onto skynx. I don't even know how this retarded argument is in the room -> On April 14 2018 21:55 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 12 2018 04:02 Skynx wrote:On April 12 2018 03:52 Calix wrote:On April 12 2018 03:39 Skynx wrote:
In meantime I'll vote for you ma'am begging your pardon. Who do you think COULD be third mafia by Process Of Eliminating the people you think are town. Thx. I'm still yet to have an opinion on Vivax and homeless, tube is also null to me right now, probably one of them (and/or ES). I'll actually just put out what i have atm: HF, Oats, rayn
tube, vivax, homeless
Damdred, Calix/Exo (tvs)
ignore: ESI'll definitely won't lynch into my town pile until 1 mafia is left and/or ES is dead. I've never actually played with scum!hf. scum!oats and scum!rayn fooled me once i think, so there are player capable of pulling off what they did so far as scum but I won't consider that possibility until dire need. Skynx if you actually believed calix/exo is tvs then shouldnt you be sure calix is scum now ##vote skynx Cause Skynx has been voting HF all day. I do care about the cop checks. I just think Skynx forgetting to add the night kill to his reads list and changing his GB read from scum to town before he died is incredibly damning. What does Skynx voting for HF have to do with the Calix/ ExO thing?
Then you shouldn't be sure calix is scum now? is what he says when skynx has been voting HF so it's an outlandish thing to think his primary scumread is you.
And the forgetting to add NK is something that happened to ES so you have an in game example of it not making people mafia and you're still using that?
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And I scumread Oats and CH both for bending the facts they based their HF reads upon.
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On April 13 2018 06:50 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2018 06:45 Oatsmaster wrote:On April 13 2018 06:39 Vivax wrote:On April 13 2018 06:29 Oatsmaster wrote:On April 13 2018 06:23 Vivax wrote:On April 13 2018 05:42 Holyflare wrote:
Also, just to add insult to injury, if someone had voted on the vivax wagon I would have absolutely maintained my vote on him to lynch him rather than switching to homeless. Yeah no shit Sherlock? But Oats somehow pretended to think that this wasn't the case. is this the part where you call me scum with HF? No this is where I ask you why you pretend to know what HF would have done. the part where hf is talking about his actions this game compared to me talking about his hypothetical actions in a game where hes mafia? Show nested quote +On April 13 2018 01:31 Oatsmaster wrote:On April 13 2018 01:07 Vivax wrote:
I don't believe you actually believe I'm mafia here Oats. You of all people have known me the longest. Maybe I was wrong on you cause that read is really outlandish. WHY IS HF MAFIA WHEN HE DIDNT ACTUALLY WANNA LYNCH YOU?!?> Show nested quote +On April 13 2018 01:43 Oatsmaster wrote:On April 13 2018 01:34 Vivax wrote:On April 13 2018 01:31 Oatsmaster wrote:On April 13 2018 01:07 Vivax wrote:
I don't believe you actually believe I'm mafia here Oats. You of all people have known me the longest. Maybe I was wrong on you cause that read is really outlandish. WHY IS HF MAFIA WHEN HE DIDNT ACTUALLY WANNA LYNCH YOU?!?> thats fucking bullshit the only reason my lynch didnt go through was that skynx came in AND VOTED NK INSTEAD OF ME. It's just plain out stupid that you think HF/Calix didn't want to lynch me. They just switched cause it wasn't going to happen cause of someone else. If not for Skynx and the two votes on NK I would be DEAD. errrrrrrrrrr no? ??? Show nested quote +On April 13 2018 05:42 Holyflare wrote:
Also, just to add insult to injury, if someone had voted on the vivax wagon I would have absolutely maintained my vote on him to lynch him rather than switching to homeless.
Capslocks that HF didn't want to lynch me in one of the quotes.
And for CH you can find what I meant if you read.this.single.day.
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Either way Skynx isn't mafia whoever is town of the ppl on him is really losing this game singlehandedly.
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On April 15 2018 04:01 Holyflare wrote:
Why is skynx not mafia? He said his biggest town read was me and that rayn is capable of fooling him as mafia and then voted me. He said his biggest scum reads were calix and vivax and exo and I started cases on you and calix and exo is the claim today. He blindly believed the claim from his biggest scum read and then when he had to choose between his biggest town read who made cases on his two biggest scum reads and rayn who he said could fool him he chose me.
I don't understand when you became so bad that you actually ignore talking points but it's quite frustrating. I get why you think ch is mafia and it was quite weird at the time but why do you just ignore people talking and write as if those things don't exist all the time? You used to always say even if I spam and write walls of text you had fun playing because of effort and you enjoy solving the puzzle but you're becoming the antithesis of what you said you loved and it's stupid.
It's cause I always echo the winds that blow my way and ignoring talking points is what 90 % of this game was doing or Oats + CH wouldn't keep getting away with the nonsense they keep writing and I keep pointing out.
Skynx is right I just have to let this game go cause it's really just complete shite.
Like right above Oats is talking about framer/miller possibility because??? Because he talks about random pointless shit just to write about it that's why. He didn't follow the cop claim already so him pretending to care about miller and framer is ridiculous and the only reason he would care about it is cause he wants to lynch rayn which isn't a remote possibility anywhere in his filter. He literally uses "I THOUGHT ABOUT MILLER AND FRAMER SO I DONT DOUBT EXO THAT MUCH ANY MORE HERP DERP" which is just horseshit.
Any accusations he just shrugs off with "I don't understand" , "I don't know". His first vote without any new content whatsoever was on the wagon that was Calix so he's also following the shit out of thread sentiment since forever. He calls CH scum but doesn't give a shit about him ever.
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On April 15 2018 04:18 Holyflare wrote:
Dunno why you're saying we're ignoring oats? I think he's probably mafia and calix just wrote a post on him looking suspicious.
Cause it doesn't matter what you write about Oats if you never declare yourself ready to vote him off. Everyone who is mafia can take a short dump on their teammate and carry on with voting off the most popular town wagon.
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If any of what you said about Oats carried any weight you wouldn't just treat it like chatter and somehow engage with me to get a wagon going which you aren't doing. You are just like "but we talked about Oats Vivax". Yea you did but then what?
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EPT
