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Newbie Student Mafia XXVIII - Page 65

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
January 26 2018 22:50 GMT
#1281
Well I'm falling asleep so this will be shorter than I intended. In case I die I think my reads are pretty clear: I'm 99% sure HF is the last scum. If I'm wrong it's probably Kmatt, but I don't see him being scum and reacting like he did after Damerion claimed. The others are all pretty townie:

BTDT is almost conf town, due to being roleblocked while KSC didn't get roleblocked, ensuring his roleblock claim is true.


JAT is playing exactly how I remember him playing as town, and we have like exactly the same conclusions for everything that has happened. Pretty sure he's town.


Mocsta got interactions with DF that are hard to fake as partners. The most important two are this post by DF, immediately after he entered the game:
On January 18 2018 12:58 darthfoley wrote:
who is this mocsta character and why is he speaking so much?

Opening aggressively like that on your partner is possible, but not that likely.
And this post by Mocsta during N1:
On January 20 2018 23:26 Mocsta wrote:
I shall illuminate my top 2 reads in further detail to connect how and more importantly why they are a scum pairing.
Please refer to my 4000 word case below.

Why is DF scum
Read DF Filter, and dont tell me you dont see this....
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Why is HF scum
Read HF Filter, and dont tell me you dont see this...
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]



and...

wait for it.

[image loading]


Why does it work together
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


Making a post like that on your partner is kinda unlikely.
There is also a lot of attacks between them during D1, especially from DF who tried to push Damerion "being vague" when it wasn't the case. Nothing alone is impossible but all of this added make them pretty unlikely to be partners.


mderg has had a brillant game if HF is scum. He basically called everything I'm thinking now, but earlier than me. He was attacking Damerion early D1, thinking his attack on Damdred was BS:
On January 18 2018 23:04 mderg wrote:
I really don't like the way Damerion is making his case on Damdred, though.

Using the fact that Damdred left the thread is like the weakest reason to push the read I can imagine.

Wasn't convinced by DF:
On January 19 2018 19:51 mderg wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 19 2018 19:29 KelsierSC wrote:
On January 19 2018 18:50 mderg wrote:
Trying to shortly summarize my thoughts on everyone


Twat: probably town
kmatt: no idea
Damerion: don't like his tunneling on damdred, could be scum
btdt: no idea
Mocsta: probably town, conversation with rsoultin looks like town on town argument
Rels: just latches onto the damdred wagon and his work is done
rsoultin: probably town
df: meh
damdred: leaning town
prplhz: no idea
Kelsier: leaning towads town very slightly
Holyflare: I would expect more from town hf but I always have him as scum


I don't think a list like this is very good. In reality you have provided yourself a lot of outs to change opinion without putting forward anything new.

Can you expand on df and explain why he is meh.


The goal of that list was not to put out anything groundbrakingly new. It's a way to summarize and organize my thoughts.

Everything df said (except the townread on Rels imo) kind of makes sense. But I had pretty much no idea what he said before going through his filter. So his play feels a bit off despite making logically sound arguments.

He had this post D2, in which his 2 "would lynch" candidates are Damerion and HF:
On January 21 2018 19:14 mderg wrote:
Taking a look at the votes:

Show nested quote +

Day One Final Vote Count

Damdred (4): Damerion, Holyflare, TheTwatyEvildoer, Rels, Mocsta, Rels
beentheredonethat (4): rsoultin, KelsierSC, mderg, Rels, darthfoley, prplhz, Rels
darthfoley (3): Damdred, KelsierSC, rsoultin
Holyflare (0): mderg, Mocsta, rsoultin
prplhz (0): Mocsta

Not Voting (2): Kmatt, beentheredonethat



I think we can clear btdt because df voting him makes no sense here, if they're both scum. One vote switch would get btdt lynched.
Similarly we can clear rsoultin on the df wagon. That's not telling us anything new, though.
I also think Mocsta is town based on his interactions with df.

So this is where I'm at:

Show nested quote +

Day One Final Vote Count

Damdred (4): Damerion, Holyflare, TheTwatyEvildoer, Rels, Mocsta, Rels
beentheredonethat (4): rsoultin, KelsierSC, mderg, Rels, darthfoley, prplhz, Rels
darthfoley (3): Damdred, KelsierSC, rsoultin
Holyflare (0): mderg, Mocsta, rsoultin
prplhz (0): Mocsta

Not Voting (2): Kmatt, beentheredonethat



That leaves us with:
TheTwatyEvildoer: Looked pretty townish to me but then dropped off the face of the earth, wouldn't lynch right now, though
Kmatt: Could be scum could be town but how do you honestly read him at this point?
Damerion: Didn't like his case and tunnel on Damdred. Did look somewhat close to his usual town game but with some differences. Would lynch.
Rels: Didn't like him at the start, felt better later on. Switching between two town wagons at the end would be plausible as scum. Could imagine lynching him.
prplhz: No idea how to read him from his posts. Probably not scum together with Rels because I don't think all 3 scum would be on the same wagon.
Holyflare: Felt more like hf but his reads look like how mafia would want to lynch. Would lynch.
mderg: I'm obviously town

Finally during D2, he was one of the few voting Damerion, resulting in the vote being 4-3 prp-Damerion. If one person voting prp had voted Damerion instead, or if one non-voter had voted Damerion before Damerion got to 4 votes, Damerion would have been lynched instead of prp, which make it unlikely that mderg and Damerion are partner: Damerion had a real chance of being lynched D2, and mderg could have voted prp easily given prp's play, and not risk his partner dying.


Kmatt: his filter is kinda weak. If HF was not in the game he would be my scumread via POE for sure. But contrary to what BTDT or HF are saying, I don't see inconsistencies in his reads, only low activity and not very explained reads.
The big thing that makes me think he's town is the fact that he tried to convince people to switch off Damerion during D3. This is a very baller thing to do that had 0 chance of success given the thread consensus and Kmatt's town influence.
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
January 26 2018 23:00 GMT
#1282
Now HF:
- has been pushing for mafia objectives all game long: lynch Damdred or BTDT over DF during D1, lynch prp over Damerion D2, soft a role during the night N2, believed Damerion's claim D3. Now I want to make it clear that being wrong does not make anyone scum by itself. But. HF is a very strong a logical player, as either alignment. And this game is being seen more or less the same way by a lot of players I consider strong: rsoultin, KSC, JAT ... but HF for some reason has had the exact opposite view of the game than all of these players. Even if it doesn't make HF scum by itself, it's a big indicator that he's been this wrong in this straight-forward game.
- has entered pointless debate mode whenever he's been attacked. That started D1 when he deflected rsoul's accusation of defending DF by saying he was going home, which was not the original point; and that continued all game until earlier, where he was whining about being tunneled so much and trying to throw shade at me.
- and last but not least, my case on him. Regardless of everything I've said above, the case by itself make him scum. It's just impossible that town!HF would risk the cop getting roleblocked. I know that for a player that never played with HF, it seems dumb to have that kind of certainty over this: if that's the case and you refuse to take my word for it, I would ask you to do your research and verify how HF plays as town during the night.
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
January 26 2018 23:01 GMT
#1283
If I die, PLEASE reread my case carefully:
On January 25 2018 07:40 Rels wrote:
OK so I reread N2 to check that thing about HF softing he knew Damerion was blue. And it makes no sense if HF is town.

It starts with the first big post Damerion made after coming back, in which he had this part:
Show nested quote +
On January 24 2018 01:48 Damerion wrote:
It was simple I am supremely confident in my ability to read the game and make decisions. And I believe highly even at this moment I will find scum and will not be lynched, in fact after the night is over I believe you will be unable to lynch me.

To which HF immediately reacted:
Show nested quote +
On January 24 2018 02:19 Holyflare wrote:
Lol I really like where this is going. I'm confirmed not mafia after tonight

So. HF saw the hint that Damerion is blue, and immediately post it in the thread. Why ? What's the point of doing it if HF is town ? It gains town nothing. It's actually detrimental to the town, because if scum manage to understand it, they can use this information and kill or roleblock Damerion.

Then it happens again. In another post later on, Damerion softs on his "green check" on Mocsta:
Show nested quote +
On January 24 2018 03:12 Damerion wrote:
In either case tomorrow I am sure I will find scum and be a hero again.

Right now for instance I am sure Mocsta is town, there is no doubt in my mind. Holyflare and yourself are also high but not as high as him.

And HF reacts with these two posts, showing again he thinks Damerion is blue, and more precisely, cop with a green check on mocsta:
Show nested quote +
On January 24 2018 04:32 Holyflare wrote:
Mocsta is my biggest town read too

Show nested quote +
On January 24 2018 08:03 Holyflare wrote:
No, for real. Now that he's said it I can see it.

Once again, why ? The reasonning is the same as above. It's even obvious in retrospective, anyone searching for blue in the thread will pick it up - IE scums.

So. It makes no sense for a town perspective to act like that. It makes total sense from a scum perspective though. The benefits are twofold:
- it makes HF appear smart and thinking about the game. The ironic thing about it is that it's totally about the appearance. It only serves to appear townie; but when you take the time to think about the town motivation behind it, there is none, and it's actually detrimental to the town. Total scum pointer there.
- if Damerion is his partner, this is a play prepared by both of them. It prepares the claim that will happen after the night is over:
Show nested quote +
On January 24 2018 09:07 Holyflare wrote:
If Damerion isn't claiming cop with a green check on mocsta then all is wrong with the world.

And it attempts to gain towncred for HF:
Show nested quote +
On January 24 2018 09:06 Damerion wrote:
Holyflare caught me softing it and i seem to think it makes him town for me not being shot.

Show nested quote +
On January 24 2018 09:18 Damerion wrote:
And I disagree I think holyflare is more likely town in thia scenerio.



Now here comes the meta part of this post. I think the above is sufficient to make anyone scum and making me want to lynch them. What's even scummier is that Holyflare is a player that always tries to play mindgames with the scum in order to make them waste kills or actions on Vanilla Townie. For example, he often says weird thing during the night, or says some player is an obvious blue, to confuse the scum team.

But he has not done that this game. In contrario, he softed exactly who he thought was the cop 3 times in the thread. This is 100% against the way he plays.

Now this is a meta read, so you will have to read some town games of his to verify it if you never played with him. But I think at least JAT can attest to it.


TLDR: I think HF is scum, and I think Damerion & HF make perfect sense as a team. HF softing he thinks Damerion is blue during the night is (1) totally against a townie's interest and (2) totally against HF own meta. Furthermore, them being together actually explains these posts: it would mean they were preparing the fakeclaim as soon as Damerion re-entered the thread during N2.

Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
January 26 2018 23:05 GMT
#1284
And don't let HF off the hook.

I will re-iterate the following: YOU CANNOT JUDGE KMATT AND HF FROM THE SAME CRITERIAS. When Kmatt will have play 50 games, you will be able to. But now, in this game, it makes no sense. Town!HF is one of the hardest player to deal with as scum. Scum!HF is one of the most difficult player to lynch as town. This game, he played the "I'm pushing the scum objectives too hard to be scum while not being that motivated" strategy, and that fooled me and rsoul during D2. But he slipped N2.

Don't let him escape.
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30775 Posts
January 26 2018 23:07 GMT
#1285
Your reason to town read mocsta/kmatt is really, really quite weak.

Either way you guys shouldn't listen to the above at all. Your mderg town read is also quite bad because things like:

Everything df said (except the townread on Rels imo) kind of makes sense. But I had pretty much no idea what he said before going through his filter. So his play feels a bit off despite making logically sound arguments.


give me such major scummy vibes that it's unreal. Everything df said was fine but he had no idea what he said beforehand therefore he's scummy? That's a fucking ODD read to have.
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
January 26 2018 23:07 GMT
#1286
going to sleep now! See you tomorrow, or post-game if I'm shot
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30775 Posts
January 26 2018 23:09 GMT
#1287
I'm going to confirm myself town tonight really quite easily
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
January 26 2018 23:10 GMT
#1288
On January 27 2018 08:07 Holyflare wrote:
Your reason to town read mocsta/kmatt is really, really quite weak.

Either way you guys shouldn't listen to the above at all. Your mderg town read is also quite bad because things like:
Show nested quote +

Everything df said (except the townread on Rels imo) kind of makes sense. But I had pretty much no idea what he said before going through his filter. So his play feels a bit off despite making logically sound arguments.


give me such major scummy vibes that it's unreal. Everything df said was fine but he had no idea what he said beforehand therefore he's scummy? That's a fucking ODD read to have.

What about "despite his reads being logical, he has no impact in the game" do you not understand ? It seems pretty clear to me.
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30775 Posts
January 26 2018 23:11 GMT
#1289
I don't understand that because it doesn't make sense. Just because he has no impact doesn't mean anything. If you read someone's filter and it looks clean and good you don't magically drop that person into a scummy pile. That's really out of the blue.
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30775 Posts
January 26 2018 23:11 GMT
#1290
Gonna read mderg I guess.

Let's not forget the way Kmatt has disappeared again btw.
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30775 Posts
January 26 2018 23:18 GMT
#1291
On January 27 2018 08:11 Holyflare wrote:
Gonna read mderg I guess.

Let's not forget the way Kmatt has disappeared again btw.


It's not a scum read tbh, it was just kelsier asking him to explain a "meh" read which makes far, far, far more sense than the context you're trying to make it look like.
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
January 26 2018 23:20 GMT
#1292
On January 27 2018 08:18 Holyflare wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 27 2018 08:11 Holyflare wrote:
Gonna read mderg I guess.

Let's not forget the way Kmatt has disappeared again btw.


It's not a scum read tbh, it was just kelsier asking him to explain a "meh" read which makes far, far, far more sense than the context you're trying to make it look like.

Since I'm not trying to make it look like he had a full push on DF D1, everything is good then.
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30775 Posts
January 26 2018 23:22 GMT
#1293
You're implying he's a genius that pipped you to the post in calling out mafia by referencing df being bad at multiple points but it was very much middle of the road "meh" instead of scum reads. So, yes, your post is a giant exaggeration of the truth but it's not untrue.

The damerion lynch vote is a good point though.
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30775 Posts
January 26 2018 23:24 GMT
#1294
Game is entirely shit when people don't vote though. I base a lot of the game off of vote counts and it's trending more and more to people not even giving a shit to vote recently and that's annoying as fuck.
mderg
Profile Joined April 2011
Germany1740 Posts
January 26 2018 23:28 GMT
#1295
On January 27 2018 08:07 Holyflare wrote:
Your reason to town read mocsta/kmatt is really, really quite weak.

Either way you guys shouldn't listen to the above at all. Your mderg town read is also quite bad because things like:
Show nested quote +

Everything df said (except the townread on Rels imo) kind of makes sense. But I had pretty much no idea what he said before going through his filter. So his play feels a bit off despite making logically sound arguments.


give me such major scummy vibes that it's unreal. Everything df said was fine but he had no idea what he said beforehand therefore he's scummy? That's a fucking ODD read to have.

His town read on me is pretty good since I'm town

I feel like you're misrepresenting what I've said about df. What I've said should imply that df was trying not to stand out with what he says, which most people would agree is somewhat scummy.
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30775 Posts
January 26 2018 23:28 GMT
#1296
I think it's between kmatt and mocsta to be honest. I never actually started town reading mocsta which is the issue with this kmatt business. If kmatt isn't mafia he's making it a real tough time to convince anyone that he's not and he'll just be the lynch over mocsta. I just want to know kmatt's scum reads at each point of the game but he won't answer me and nobody seems to care to ask him either.
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30775 Posts
January 26 2018 23:30 GMT
#1297
On January 27 2018 08:28 mderg wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 27 2018 08:07 Holyflare wrote:
Your reason to town read mocsta/kmatt is really, really quite weak.

Either way you guys shouldn't listen to the above at all. Your mderg town read is also quite bad because things like:

Everything df said (except the townread on Rels imo) kind of makes sense. But I had pretty much no idea what he said before going through his filter. So his play feels a bit off despite making logically sound arguments.


give me such major scummy vibes that it's unreal. Everything df said was fine but he had no idea what he said beforehand therefore he's scummy? That's a fucking ODD read to have.

His town read on me is pretty good since I'm town

I feel like you're misrepresenting what I've said about df. What I've said should imply that df was trying not to stand out with what he says, which most people would agree is somewhat scummy.


Perhaps read the bit underneath where I read the context of the actual quote and determine that it's not actually a bad point but you don't equate it to being scummy either so that's kind of stretching the truth. I agree that it made him "meh" and that's that. Nothing more to it.
mderg
Profile Joined April 2011
Germany1740 Posts
January 26 2018 23:34 GMT
#1298
On January 27 2018 08:30 Holyflare wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 27 2018 08:28 mderg wrote:
On January 27 2018 08:07 Holyflare wrote:
Your reason to town read mocsta/kmatt is really, really quite weak.

Either way you guys shouldn't listen to the above at all. Your mderg town read is also quite bad because things like:

Everything df said (except the townread on Rels imo) kind of makes sense. But I had pretty much no idea what he said before going through his filter. So his play feels a bit off despite making logically sound arguments.


give me such major scummy vibes that it's unreal. Everything df said was fine but he had no idea what he said beforehand therefore he's scummy? That's a fucking ODD read to have.

His town read on me is pretty good since I'm town

I feel like you're misrepresenting what I've said about df. What I've said should imply that df was trying not to stand out with what he says, which most people would agree is somewhat scummy.


Perhaps read the bit underneath where I read the context of the actual quote and determine that it's not actually a bad point but you don't equate it to being scummy either so that's kind of stretching the truth. I agree that it made him "meh" and that's that. Nothing more to it.

If I say his play feels off, it means he's scummy
mderg
Profile Joined April 2011
Germany1740 Posts
January 26 2018 23:36 GMT
#1299
Note to self: Don't leave any room for interpretation in the future
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30775 Posts
January 26 2018 23:40 GMT
#1300
You literally say the words scummy in your lists for other people so meh on df is not a scum read. This conversation is entirely pointless however so let's stop having it.
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