[T] MS Paint-Off Mafia - Page 75

On August 17 2017 12:13 geript wrote:

How does Fecalfeast having "so little pages" have anything to do with this. Look at the quotes. Here... I'll link them:
TW not remembering FF's posts but thinking he was town

TW finishing both FF's and Hopeless' filters

TW posting a shitty reads post that includes secret hearthrob Copcake at the top that he made a huge amazing shitty townread on unlike anything else he's posted in the game but is obviously in no way whatsoever is connected to

The mods telling use to shut our traps for end of day[/url

It's not at all at the start of day; in fact it's right at the end of it. He magically forgets his reasons for FF but in 3 minutes can read 12 pages of filter and call hopeless scum. You're even fucking defending this shit and you're "so obviously not connected to him."

On August 17 2017 12:14 CopCake wrote:


I am defending myself, not him.

On August 17 2017 12:24 geript wrote:

I'm not sure on Damdred. He definitely can be scum, but he also can be town.

On August 17 2017 12:27 Jealous wrote:
Nevermind, paint got too complicated once I realized all of the contingencies and the limitations of TL's textbox. Let's look at it from the judge's perspective.



1. T+V. Let's assume this as the baseline, as this is what I imagine the judges would hypothetically be going for.

It would only make sense for T+V to claim in this scenario. The vig shot could almost never be used as a bargaining chip to appeal when up for lynch, because that would indicate that the judges had chosen someone to give it to then changed their minds about whether that person is townie or not and put them in the lynch pile. Wouldn't make sense.

2. S+V This is the worst-case scenario, the one that I overlooked in the previous analysis.

If S+V claims, then that would just be a bad/dumb move. It would be much more effective to save it and use it if suspicion ever DID fall on them from the judges and they thought they were going to lose the lynch vote, or if the game gets to the point where the judges are no longer present.

3. T-V. This would mean that HF is intentionally misleading everyone in the game, EXCEPT the judges who already know that he doesn't have the V.

This would only make sense if he was trying to put all the attention on himself, so that the judges could give the shot to someone else who would be under less scrutiny. This would also likely force scum to use a RB on him, as he currently has vest and with the shot in tow, it is a bad position for scum. However, I think that this is still not a very good play, as it would assume that the judges don't scumread him for the move, and it would assume that when the vig shot is actually given out there is likely to be a legitimacy argument which would be counter-productive. I don't think this possibility makes much sense. If the judges did scumread him for the move it would look like this:

4. S-V This would also mean that HF is intentionally misleading everyone in the game, EXCEPT the judges who already know that he doesn't have the V, and of course excluding his scummates.

This wouldn't make much sense to do because then the judges could just indicate that it is false by not including HF in the "Top 3" vote in the next cycle, effectively showing that "we don't care if this guy gets a vest or not because he is lying." That will show to everyone to stop listening to HF, and then he will be in the lynch pile the next cycle.



In short, I don't find any situation in which it makes sense for scum HF to claim; I also think that the move for town HF to claim without actually having it would be too much of a gamble. QED, HF is town and has the shot.

It was pretty hard for me to explain myself throughout all of this. If you disagree with my conclusions, please share your counterarguments because I could easily have just confused myself while thinking of the possibilities and interactions.

On August 17 2017 11:57 Hopeless1der wrote:

You're "different scenarios" rely on the fact that the judges picked two or three scum and that they bussed each other and that we 'super bussed' each other but wait not really so only one can ever be scum.

how do you define tinfoil damdred. really, what possible conclusion from your read should ANYONE (not just me or TW, but the other players or the judges or even the hosts...wtf are you saying?!)

On August 17 2017 12:27 Jealous wrote:
Nevermind, paint got too complicated once I realized all of the contingencies and the limitations of TL's textbox. Let's look at it from the judge's perspective.



1. T+V. Let's assume this as the baseline, as this is what I imagine the judges would hypothetically be going for.

It would only make sense for T+V to claim in this scenario. The vig shot could almost never be used as a bargaining chip to appeal when up for lynch, because that would indicate that the judges had chosen someone to give it to then changed their minds about whether that person is townie or not and put them in the lynch pile. Wouldn't make sense.

2. S+V This is the worst-case scenario, the one that I overlooked in the previous analysis.

If S+V claims, then that would just be a bad/dumb move. It would be much more effective to save it and use it if suspicion ever DID fall on them from the judges and they thought they were going to lose the lynch vote, or if the game gets to the point where the judges are no longer present.

3. T-V. This would mean that HF is intentionally misleading everyone in the game, EXCEPT the judges who already know that he doesn't have the V.

This would only make sense if he was trying to put all the attention on himself, so that the judges could give the shot to someone else who would be under less scrutiny. This would also likely force scum to use a RB on him, as he currently has vest and with the shot in tow, it is a bad position for scum. However, I think that this is still not a very good play, as it would assume that the judges don't scumread him for the move, and it would assume that when the vig shot is actually given out there is likely to be a legitimacy argument which would be counter-productive. I don't think this possibility makes much sense. If the judges did scumread him for the move it would look like this:

4. S-V This would also mean that HF is intentionally misleading everyone in the game, EXCEPT the judges who already know that he doesn't have the V, and of course excluding his scummates.

This wouldn't make much sense to do because then the judges could just indicate that it is false by not including HF in the "Top 3" vote in the next cycle, effectively showing that "we don't care if this guy gets a vest or not because he is lying." That will show to everyone to stop listening to HF, and then he will be in the lynch pile the next cycle.



In short, I don't find any situation in which it makes sense for scum HF to claim; I also think that the move for town HF to claim without actually having it would be too much of a gamble. QED, HF is town and has the shot.

It was pretty hard for me to explain myself throughout all of this. If you disagree with my conclusions, please share your counterarguments because I could easily have just confused myself while thinking of the possibilities and interactions.

On August 17 2017 12:23 geript wrote:

Bull shit read the fucking posts.


This is clearly and obviously him representing that he's read both filters. Hell just opening reading FF's filter which was like 3 pages would take 3 minutes. You can't tell me he's not flat out lying about what he's doing and done. You can't flat out say that he thinks both are town when he fucking says 2/3rds of mafia are in a group of Hopeless +4. That's why he needs to be lynched.