EPTI have no self control
/in
[M][N] I'm a cop you idiot mafia --- the reboot
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Tumblewood
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I have no self control /in | ||
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why can't 15:00 be the norm again | ||
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so I guess we're in Mylo already? | ||
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On December 06 2016 07:48 Koshi wrote: Hi. Copclaim pls? ? | ||
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On December 06 2016 08:03 Chairman Ray wrote: We got no medic save n0, so shouldn't cop claim come at day? I guess... | ||
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On December 06 2016 09:33 NeverUnlucky wrote: I agree that cop should claim at day start, and I also think that the medic should claim. NO VT EVER CC's. Force 1 on 1 with mafia or have up to 3 confirmed town if cop gets a green check who lives through the night. as is we don't have to lynch anyone today (although LyLo is worse than MyLo) if we want to get extra info. we can use this to get one cop check tonight, one on N1, and if doc claims he will die N1 and cop dies N2 before 2v1 LyLo (assuming we make it that far...) | ||
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Tumblewood
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cop checks N0 (get conftown or redcheck) cop claims D1 (two conftown). lynch if redcheck cop checks N1 (get conftown or redcheck). doc saves cop reveal check D2, doc claims D2 (four conftown). lynch if redcheck cop checks N2 (get conftown or redcheck). doc saves cop, probably dies reveal check D3 (five conftown). lynch if redcheck so throughout the game we can confirm up to five players as town if doc survives to D2 and cop survives to D1. other possibilities are confirm 4 town and 1 mafia or 3 town and 2 mafia by D3. I guess if cop or doc dies tonight we just play like normal | ||
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On December 06 2016 15:34 ExO_ wrote: Hi. claiming Vanilla Town. Going back to PoE ugh I hope this isn't "hi I'm VT bye" because night doesn't mean we can't play. especially when you won't get killed for your reads because N0 | ||
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On December 06 2016 14:22 cakepie wrote: 45% raw odds of fulfilling prerequisites for the plan, awesome! sweet, even if no redchecks, we can find all five town by D3, which PoE the other two for confscum! good job! such plan much wow any NA still ard or am I stuck waiting for EU to wake up? pls it's 25/42 odds (so about 59%?) of prerequisites. anyway even if the odds slightly favor us I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring | ||
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Tumblewood
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it's not but for the rest of the game I would have been biased towards lynching you | ||
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On December 06 2016 18:33 ExO_ wrote: If Koshi doesn't die tonight kill him tomorrow wifom | ||
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On December 07 2016 00:17 NeverUnlucky wrote: Yo, TW, you up for a chat with me? I've one spare hour  I've got half of one but sure | ||
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On December 07 2016 00:26 NeverUnlucky wrote: Noice. Do you think you're a good cop check for tonight? no because I think I'm one of the more likely players to die tonight | ||
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On December 07 2016 00:32 NeverUnlucky wrote: That's the generic answer. Why do you think so? Have you ever been NKed before? Judging from HM3 idk why you would think you're in danger of being killed, lol. If you have some non-math related questions for me, do ask. This game is pretty slow so far. because the NK is always between me you and Koshi. the other players aren't 'respected'and aren't acting townie either | ||
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On December 07 2016 00:39 NeverUnlucky wrote: Oh wow, so much honor for me. c: What do you think of other players' entries, specifically cakepie entering with math and hopeless checking in to check out? And Koshi, what happened to the "This town isn't going to be lazy" shtick you had last game? their entrances are not exciting so idc as for you, me, koshi | ||
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On December 07 2016 00:46 Tumblewood wrote: their entrances are not exciting so idc as for you, me, koshi I like to reward give-a-shitness ebwop | ||
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actually for Koshi it's the whole 'respect kill' thing. didn't mean to lump him in with us | ||
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On December 07 2016 07:47 Chairman Ray wrote: I'd lynch either Tumblewood or NeverUnlucky. Both of them posted a bunch of game math yesterday, with the mistake of assuming everything goes well for town, even going as far as avoiding the scenario where either the cop or medic dies. A town looking at game math usually thinks about worst case scenarios and how to avoid them, whereas scum try to convince town of the best case scenarios happening. Neither of them even mentioned the possibility of cop or medic dying, probably because Koshi was a respect kill and not a blue snipe. worst case scenario: blue role dies ways to prevent it: glad we figured that one out and I think I did say "if things don't go according to plan we play mafia as normal" | ||
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On December 07 2016 10:10 NeverUnlucky wrote: Point 2 is specifically worse because we're in mylo, and you shouldn't enter the day with a pre-conceived idea of who you want to lynch. well, you might if the pre-conceived idea is a series of posts leading you to the conclusion that someone is scum. mylo is like a normal day except usually without a lynch | ||
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Tumblewood
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On December 07 2016 11:14 Chairman Ray wrote: Point taken. You mentioned that you are leaning town on NeverUnlucky (specifically you said not neutral). What's your reasoning for that read? it's my way of trying to get people to be active. I reward people for trying if town is dead. | ||
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ugh mafia made a good move killing koshi if only shape were here. he'd be active | ||
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On December 07 2016 15:20 cakepie wrote: G'day folks. RIP Koshi. It's iml mylo, so I'm not exactly raring to go tying nooses. And it's early in the day yet. But scumhunting can't wait. You got to work with what you have. Tumblewood Definitely fishy. As Chairman Ray points out, TW talks plan, gets it all wrong. But what really sets the alarms off for me is his tone and progression. TW is definitely aware that state of the game = D1 mylo, with his opening post. + Show Spoiler + On December 06 2016 07:45 Tumblewood wrote: oh hey we start at night so I guess we're in Mylo already? And then there's his plan: + Show Spoiler + On December 06 2016 10:19 Tumblewood wrote: so... plan? cop checks N0 (get conftown or redcheck) cop claims D1 (two conftown). lynch if redcheck cop checks N1 (get conftown or redcheck). doc saves cop reveal check D2, doc claims D2 (four conftown). lynch if redcheck cop checks N2 (get conftown or redcheck). doc saves cop, probably dies reveal check D3 (five conftown). lynch if redcheck so throughout the game we can confirm up to five players as town if doc survives to D2 and cop survives to D1. other possibilities are confirm 4 town and 1 mafia or 3 town and 2 mafia by D3. I guess if cop or doc dies tonight we just play like normal Several mechanical things about the plan rub me the wrong way here:
His tone/progression is also problematic.
Hi ExO. I've been casually drafting since usually no one's around when I'm up. But since you're here, Imma dump what I have so far, and let's talk. re: your scumread on me ok so I made a plan and I didn't think it through all the way. how can you, from that information, conclude that I was mafia trying to mislead you (and it's not like I was trying to steer you away from any plan — there was no plan at the time) and not town just trying to figure the game out? I don't even see the motive besides making myself look better. and the Koshi thing: in a world where TW says something that would totally make sense from a townie who mistyped, one man sets out to explain how it was an intentional, subversive scum move. | ||
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On December 07 2016 16:37 ExO_ wrote: Actually I just realized I misread TWs posts he never says rewarding town. I'm starting to think I'm going a bit crazy this post (+ sequence before it) feels very candid. it is hard as scum to fake viewpoint -> new evidence -> change viewpoint to reflect that. also it would be a lot of attention to detail to fake a mistake and react realistically. | ||
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On December 08 2016 11:17 Chairman Ray wrote: If you and TW are interested in using math to demonstrate whether or not cop should claim, why the sudden lack of interest today? Exo made a strong push in favor of cop claiming. TW made a short mention that cop should only claim if he checks red. You haven't mentioned anything at all. I would expect that TW should be fighting hard against Exo and you to have some sort of opinion as well. You two were so passionate yesterday but you don't seem to care today. now that doc is dead any plan for blues to carry us through the game won't work. also now there are posts to talk about instead of just setup and an empty void. | ||
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On December 08 2016 04:04 Hopeless1der wrote: ExO has maintained that the cop should claim. I dont particularly agree, I'd rather tempt fate on a no-lynch and have the cop end-of-night phase post their N0 check, with the possibility of getting a N1 check as well. Besides that, ExO is doing a poor job of actually reading the thread, and I'm not sure where that falls on the scummy/stupid scale so I dont want to pursue a lynch there. I like CR's posts, his suspicions, questions, justifications for everything are well reasoned and show appropriate suspicion. I do not like NU's overly defensive tone following the daypost when CR accused TW/NU of hiding behind poorly reasoned math. + Show Spoiler [#86] + On December 07 2016 10:01 NeverUnlucky wrote: I find it opportunistic that you call me and tw out on our lack of assumptions now that the medic was shanked rather than when we were actually discussing it ie I doubt that you would be reproaching us this if it was a VT that flipped today. Also, I dislike that you are entering the day with two targets you'd like to see lynched, especially since pretty much nothing happened N0, so I don't understand how you're ready to see myself or tw lynched already. Also, I don't think your justification to scum-read either of us is worthy of calling us lynch targets. Especially the 2nd paragraph in the above spoiler, it reads to me as less about NU being one of the targets and more about CR having more than one target, when they're being accused with same reasoning. Why would CR be inclined to single someone out in this scenario? To me, there's no reason for it and NU's post comes off as contrived to me. As you said, most of the TW material has been covered so I'll skip over it. Also, I think you're town. My vote preferences are: 1-No-Lynch 2-TW 3-NU 4-ExO 5-CR 6-cake 7-me weird seeing 1der go from short posts with lots of nothing in between to a couple walls of text (small ones) all of a sudden. don't know why town would do it, but I don't know why scum would either. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + inb4 this is also a subversive, manipulative trick designed intentionally to buddy NU and mislead town I don't know if you think you're spotting my mafia tricks or some shit but actually you're finding evidence where there is none. literally things that could go either way and you are construing them toward I am scum without hesitation | ||
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On December 08 2016 15:24 Tumblewood wrote: gotta check cakepie's meta to see if being an asshat is his normal meta + Show Spoiler + inb4 this is also a subversive, manipulative trick designed intentionally to buddy NU and mislead town I don't know if you think you're spotting my mafia tricks or some shit but actually you're finding evidence where there is none. literally things that could go either way and you are construing them toward I am scum without hesitation wait guys found the confession | ||
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I have explained my ExO townread and it's a fucking good reason that you all should sleep me for. doing the math I multiplied five-sevenths by five-sixths, because I forgot that scum won't kill themselves. and if one more punk decides to vote me scum can and will hammer without warning. we are in MyLo, aka lose the game if you're wrong mode. are you really so confident in yourself because you wrote more words than me that you would risk this. for the love of god, don't be stupid | ||
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Tumblewood
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I want Koshi back | ||
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getting some red flags from him because a) he only focuses on me and NU b) he posts as if it is a given that NU and I are scum, even from his third or fourth post of the game there's a whole game out there, and ray is content to ignore it. maybe normal with someone heavily tunneled, but it's been that way all game. ray what do you think of 1der, ExO, and cakepie? | ||
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On December 09 2016 01:14 cakepie wrote: You're trying to apply Koshi meta on me. That's ... disingenuous. fair point, except the part where it's disingenuous. | ||
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how do I convince people I'm right in a town where no one plays like me or has played with me (except NU, once) | ||
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On December 09 2016 03:46 cakepie wrote: Hm, maybe not completely zero, but there is this bit: But still there is very little: #98 TW looks Town. <-- no elaboration! #107 "Why are you making me scumread TW?" <-- couched read?! #153 cakepie isn't an asshat and TW's tone is off #161 "largely agrees" with my TW case <-- no elaboration! I can get behind him not elaborating but there's definitely a progression there — I don't know what else you'd call what you outlined. his change of opinion gives me no trouble. | ||
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Tumblewood
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turns out no one likes being lynched | ||
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On December 09 2016 04:35 Hopeless1der wrote: Pick one and proceed. is this your question? I don't see a conflict here. | ||
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On December 09 2016 04:50 Chairman Ray wrote: You argue that being worried about perception can be either town or mafia, and it's incredibly subjective, that I agree with, which is why I pushed on him. However, you came to NU's defense before letting him speak for himself, which is a direct contradiction with your argument. Just a few posts ago you were asking for other people's scumreads on NU so you can gain some perspective. You don't actually seem that interested after all. I did want someone to help play devil's advocate and then saw yet another example of the trend where every single game he's scum he dies D1 because he's painfully obvious. and there is no contradiction in my argument. I wasn't defending him so much as calling out your shitty argument.. | ||
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On December 09 2016 05:25 Hopeless1der wrote: Also to spell it out for you, a read cannot be simultaneously "not an argument" and "subjective". Those are mutually exclusive traits of an argument. I was using those words talking about two different parts of the quote, aka the first part is not an argument and the second is subjective, if you were fucking reading it | ||
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On December 09 2016 05:43 Chairman Ray wrote: I don't buy this at all. You argued how NU acted could be either town or mafia, and it's subjective. But the way you are acting now, and have been throughout the game, you already have your mind made up that he's town. I wanted perspective because I was worried I was accepting him as town too easily, and looking through his scum game affirmed that there's no way he could pull this off as scum. | ||
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On December 09 2016 05:44 Hopeless1der wrote: And yet you still have not given ONE of the binary answers I've prescribed. here's a question: are you scum? answer either yes, openly or yes but I'm not telling you. this is how i feeel about your two binary answers. they're both bad and the real answer is valid. read what I said again: I used two mutually exclusive terms to talk about TWo DIFDERENT THINGS | ||
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On December 09 2016 05:47 Chairman Ray wrote: Ok I'm trying to think about this from your perspective. Chairman Ray made a very polarizing post giving only the mafia perspective of NU's gameplay. I feel that NU's gameplay also makes sense from a town perspective. I'm going to point out this flaw to Chairman Ray. Is this the correct interpretation? I don't fully understand your interpretation so I will rephrase my own: ray is making a point that NU is distancing from me ergo NU is scum (maybe I misinterpreted your post) -> that's not a valid argument. in the same post ray says NU cares about his image too much ergo NU is scum -> I will point out that that's a bad tell to use because it is subjective and not useful. | ||
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given that I had two votes and no one hammered, we can eliminate the following scum teams: ExO + NU ExO + 1der 1der + NU all other teams (there are 15 possible) would either need an extra town vote to hammer or include me. I strongly believe that both members of the scum team fall within cakepie, ray, and 1der. | ||
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On December 09 2016 07:29 Chairman Ray wrote: What about the scenario where a scum just wasn't online at the time? hm that's true. it was a long time that I sat with two votes, but neither ExO not NU posted in that time. I doubt on other grounds that they're scum, but really it seems the votes have determined nothing for certain. | ||
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Tumblewood
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Preamble I plan on writing posts like this for each player still alive besides myself, going in order the filters are listed. This isn't necessarily an indictment but an analysis of each player and a reasoned guess to their alignment, trying to start from square one and not cloud my judgement with previous bias. I will not go through every post, but I will use quotes liberally. The case for
The case against
Verdict Probable scum. There are reasons to believe 1der is not scum, but his game is so focused on getting me lynched (especially given his shortage of original reasons) that it is hard to see him as town. | ||
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Preamble After this post I will take a short break, both to eat food and to keep myself from going insane writing cases. I fear that already my mindset of avoiding bias is slipping. After the break I'll resume with ExO. The case for
The case against
Verdict Scum. Yeah, I don't like to speak in absolutes, but I fail to find any explanation for how cakepie is town. He reacts in different ways to the same tells from different players and above all speaks to why I am scum with evidence that should lead no reasonable person to his conclusions. Trying to find the townie in him, I felt like I was grasping for anything to explain it. If not scum then cakepie is one of the most misled townies I have ever seen, even ahead of Rels that one time. | ||
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On December 09 2016 10:33 Chairman Ray wrote: TW, one thing you keep doing when people push on you is to say that what you did was not indicative of alignment. The whole point of pushing on you is to get your side of the story before making a judgement. Everything that was said in this game is not completely alignment indicative, including all your scumreads. But instead of actually explaining your actions from your perspective, you just say that town could have totally said the same thing. That's the exact sort of defense that mafia gives if they didn't have any honest town intentions, but tries to argue that they could exist. Here's a couple examples: You also did the same thing when I pushed onto NU, defending him by saying that his actions could have been either town or mafia. What was your rationale for these defenses, or would you like to argue that town could have totally defended themselves like this too? I'm trying to avoid this because I recognize people | ||
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why the hell would I write 3 more extensive cases *sigh* I'll do one more and then do rl work | ||
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Preamble This is all I will be able to manage tonight without killing myself. I should have gotten to Ray before, mostly to sort out my own thoughts on him. The case for
The case against
Verdict Town. ExO has provided good analysis consistently and has hardly done anything to give me suspicion. One thing to watch out for, though, is a dropoff after D1 if it seems like he can coast through the game. | ||
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Tumblewood
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I'm cop you idiot 1der is ray is mafia | ||
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the game is solved, for me | ||
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also please don't vote me. as soon as both scum are online they can snap-vote me and end the game right there. | ||
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I will try to point out crumbs on my phone but it will be easier when I get home to a computer | ||
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On December 10 2016 09:01 NeverUnlucky wrote: like, I don't see why cakepie would have fake-claimed cop at this point in time: he was in a good position in terms of being TR'd and was arguably the most influential player in the game. He could've easily diverted any lynch to the target of his choice, so long he convinces 1 town. It doesn't make sense for him to do so. TW is in the top of most people's scum-reads so it makes perfect sense for him to all-in and hope he gets a ML / trades 1 for 1 with the cop and gets his partner to clean up in mylo he wanted to seem proactive rather than reactive. if you or ExO were cop you could have checked me and they would have had to backpedal and attack someone else who was more townread we're already in MyLo so 1-for-1s don't exist. if the next two lynches are not scum - that is, are not cakepie and ray - town loses | ||
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On December 10 2016 09:07 NeverUnlucky wrote: Okay, but where are your so-called crumbs? I've checked your filter and found NOTHING of that matter. You complained about blue roles a couple of times and were scum-reading H1 the whole fucking time, you even had him as top lynch at some point. This makes no sense from a cop who has a green check on h1's perspective. I'm not unvoting you until you can convince me that you are the real cop, if the two scum hammer you and u flip VT it's your own fault for fake-claiming as VT. Besides if you're town, cakepie is scum and he is sleeping atm. I am not VT. let me make this clear I am finding crumbs as we speak. give me 15 minutes to get them | ||
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The case on cakepie ... other stuff ... The case against
... other stuff ... | ||
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On December 09 2016 09:22 Tumblewood wrote: The case on Hopeless1der ... The case against
... | ||
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you have to bold your votes and unvoted for them to count though | ||
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On December 10 2016 09:24 NeverUnlucky wrote: Outline to me why cakepie is mafia. No big post, just bullet points. - interpreted my posts, mostly early game, to illustrate a picture in which I am mafia using subversive tactics to mislead town, but all of the interpretations require huge leaps of faith (shows that he is more concerned with lynching me than lynching the right person as determined via reason) - presented with similar mistakes from me and ray, he slammed me and merely explained to ray his mistake (does not treat similar situations consistently; consider that I have a red check on ray) - fakeclaimed cop to summarize, he is aggressively pushing lynches (specifically a lynch on me) in nearly all of his posts but does not show that he is carefully reasoning to make those. really a case of "there is no way someone sees these posts and draws that conclusion unless they are looking for a justification for a lynch" | ||
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On December 10 2016 09:19 NeverUnlucky wrote: But dude, if you were NKed, nobody would've thought about looking this deep into your filter ie your death would've been pointless. Also, you didn't claim before EoN what your checks were/were going to be like cakepie did (Although i still dont know what they would be). It looks fabricated to me. That's what a mafia crumb would look like imo I was busy as usual fron 1:15 to 2:15 and figured that if I couldn't post just before deadline it was best to wait till after so I wouldn't die, because I was preeetty confident mafia wouldn't kill the #1 scumread of most of the game | ||
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On December 10 2016 09:47 NeverUnlucky wrote: Okay, right. I'm not fully sold on your previous post on cakepie tbh. It's kind of a weak read I think. How would you describe your confidence on your reads that are not CR in %? Forget that, I wouldn't know. well my read on cakepie is 100% (okay, 99% in case he's really, really bad and/or trying to lose the game) because of the fakeclaim, but before he claimed it was more like a 90%. | ||
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On December 10 2016 09:48 cakepie wrote: I'm going to cash in all the towncred I've banked and issue these orders. No one votes without thorough discussion and town consensus. ExO and Ray need to get their asses in here. Don't be lazy. Read my case. I'm working out the possibilities but I need everyone to be present. what possibilities either you and ray are scum, or I and ExO/NU/ray are scum. there is no other possibility and your town cred means nothing. you lost it all already | ||
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On December 10 2016 09:57 cakepie wrote: That's way too many of us. I'm not sure there's enough room in the police car. ExO, just to be sure, you're not some kind of super secret deep undercover cop, are you? Like, your VT claim is for realsies and you're not a cop who fakeclaimed VT? cakepie. did you just, while claiming cop, ask ExO if he is cop? | ||
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On December 10 2016 10:05 Chairman Ray wrote: How did you know game was going to end? SCUMSLIP SCUMSLIP SCUMSLIP are you kidding me this is some weak shit right here | ||
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On December 10 2016 10:06 cakepie wrote: NU, unvote. That's an order. I guess by principle he should but I'm not really worried if someone does hammer | ||
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On December 10 2016 10:33 cakepie wrote: NU, have you read my hugefuckingcase? Don't be lazy. Read it. We're going to need to solve this game with very little help of cop powers. if a case needs to be a hugefuckingcase to be good, then it's not really a good case. after ten quotes or so a case moves from the "thorough" category to the "just quoted every post in the game and added some analysis" category. maybe what you say is valid but if it is you should be able to make it not a juggernaut of a post | ||
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On December 10 2016 10:35 cakepie wrote: because I was busy around deadline and it was less risky to wait till day (because let's be honest: mafia was never killing me there without a claim) thinking about it now maybe it would have been best to claim way early and either let mafia counterclaim me or kill me and validate my words | ||
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On December 10 2016 10:51 cakepie wrote: Because that means you'd win. Either as townwinner or as scumwinner. You're only interested in using your claim and checks to solve the game by yourself. That's very selfish. It's lylo. You have to convince town of your claim. You have to dispel all counterclaims. You shouldn't just dump it and expect everyone to take it at face value. You have to show why your checks, PLUS the available evidence in the game thread, all ties together in a coherent narrative that solves the game. Unfortunately, craycray and I don't have reads that in themselves solve the game. As I already said, we have to solve this game with very little help of cop powers. Assuming all cop claims being equal and nothing else, we need to be given a fair chance to put together our respective narratives. > very little help of cop powers how the fuck is it selfish to use the information I have to help town win the game? and the word narrative concerns me. in the context of explaining a case, usually it involves taking someone else's posts and, without their explanation and usually with several leaps in logic, explaining the ulterior motive behind them. I plan on convincing town that I am cop and that ray is scum and that you would never fakeclaim as vt but that you're both clear scum anyway. also that you and he have associated yourselves so so much. but I want exo here first | ||
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On December 10 2016 13:14 ExO_ wrote: For starters just browsing, how the fuck can you claim cop without posting your checks cakepie? It makes no fucking sense. Claim cop without posting who you checked and who you are checking the next night is fake as fuck I think cakepie is now calling that a fakeclaim? because clearly he doesn't have much of a problem with ray, and he asked you if you were cop, but there's no point where he officially rescinds his claim. one of the worst claims/fakeclaims I've ever seen | ||
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On December 10 2016 13:30 NeverUnlucky wrote: Why are you saying claim/fake-claim if you're cop???? it just felt a little too skewed to just call it a fakeclaim. I know it was a fakeclaim, but I had that sitting there and it felt too in-your-face so I changed it | ||
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Well, I’m not going to post a huge ordered list or give townreads and help scum prioritize out who to kill off. I can maaaybe believe in such a bad fakeclaim.... actually, even in a world where VT fakeclaims are acceptable, what's the point of posting right before deadline when the whole purpose of doing that is so scum won't have time to react? why not bait it by posting 3 minutes early? or why would you associate yourself with ray (it really is obvious) all game if you have no special relation to him? I'll give it a 95% chance cakepie is scum. exo, if you could just play well for a couple days and ease my doubts, that would be nice. | ||
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On December 10 2016 15:24 cakepie wrote: scum!(tw+exo) see NU as the one the can get to vote with them. But I'm the fucking weakest link now with unforced error. I'm not actually a super strong player or anything like that. At least, I don't think so given my track record:
NSM8 taught me to make sure I have fuckloads of time (I am a very slow plaer) and to put in tons of effort. Those lessons are freshest in my mind since it's most recent, and I lost in a really shitty way. So I applied them in this game. Stepping up and being town leader wasn't my intention coming into the game. But I saw busy people, away people and lazy people, so it fell upon me to put in the work for town. Being town leader was a new and strange thing for me. I'm not even that good, but I've tried my darndest and succeeded in establishing myself town. I also tried to "find scum, lynch scum, be happy". I picked the scummiest target, pushed the read as far as I could. Then, the next target, and take it as far as I can again. This was okay and I knew there would be weak parts of the reads. But it is informative to see how people react. It is also informative to provide material for discussion -- which is why I was somewhat dismayed by the lack of discussion. On the other hand, this approach led several of you to think that I'm trying too hard to find scumtells. Things were pretty good though, until I forgot the lessons from long ago ( NMM33 and NMM36 ) and decided to do unnecessary shit and make a big play. Now we're fucked unless someone -- most likely NU -- is willing to hear me out on good faith. So I'm going to submit that it's within my meta for me to fuck up like that. The way I use logic too, even if that seems alien to you. I really hope that people are bothered enough to actually put in effort to go look at my meta. Sorry to increase the burden on you. If you can't be bothered or don't believe me, then I will shamefully accept responsibility for losing the game. You're not going to get seals from me, though. I'm town. I'm not lynching you today, not with an absolute certainty on the board. but consider that, if you're town, then exo has to be scum and must be playing a pretty damn good game. come 2v1 LyLo, you can sort things out (assuming I die so scum doesn't let me check all but one surviving player, and that we don't lose the game today), and I will try to make things as easy as possible for NU, who I predict is the axis vote in this case. but don't get your hopes up too much  | ||
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On December 10 2016 15:58 cakepie wrote: I did fake #280+281. If you mean me calling him craycray, no particular reason. I just thought it would be a funny nickname. If it's me seeming to let him off the hook, that's because I was focusing on you, then ExO. If you have something you want to ask me about our interactions content-wise, fire away. posting at the standard escape-NK time defeats the purpose of baiting the NK by claiming. and with ray, it's that you never seem to pressure him, you just always see the good side, which isn't how you have treated the rest of the game. | ||
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On December 11 2016 00:11 NeverUnlucky wrote: TW: Same question I asked ExO re: "How do you explain scum-reading [your] green-check the entirety of day 1 and making cases on 3 of the 5 other players, starting with [your] green-check and not doing a case on who [you] scum-read and ended up checking?" it would have looked weird to act like everything was ok with 1der, because for a townie he looked preeeetty scummy. for the same reason, it would have looked like TMI if I had acted like I knew 1der was town when as VT I would have probably been calling him scum. I checked ray because I was uncertain about him, which was partially caused by the fact that I never organized my thoughts about him. initially I planned to get to everyone but making large cases burns me out fast. hope this clears it up for ya | ||
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On December 11 2016 02:17 NeverUnlucky wrote: Not entirely. Why would you start by casing your green-check? If you're limited on time, you should be keeping him for last as you know his alignment as cop and not CRay/me. What do you think of cakepie and CRay's reasons to TR H1 since you find him scummy? Do you think they are fabricated/TMI? when I started I thought I would get to everyone anyway so it wouldn't matter. which was silly. but I was fine missing ray because I knew I could get his alignment via copcheck, and I was (am) nearly certain on you. I don't remember why cakepie and ray were TRing 1der in D1, so I will look into it | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On December 08 2016 13:10 cakepie wrote: Isn't that a bit circular and self-reinforcing? 1. Active players seem to buddy in quiet N0 -> 2. mafia together? -> 3. oh look mafia buddying in quiet town -> 4. go back to step 2 Furthermore, I think it looks more like only one (TW) is actively buddying. I think NU might already started smelling a rat and was questioning why/how TW formed that absurd TW/NU/Koshi circle: I believe that NU could be genuinely (if naively) broaching the possibility of "If VTs agree never to fakeclaim, all CCs become MvT". TW jumps at the opportunity to gain easy towncred by enumerating possible scenarios according to mechanics, and to engage NU to try to start a buddybuddy going jerking over setup. TW's scumbuddy is somewhere else, and I think they could be tentatively drawing distance at that point in time, with town?NU active, soondead!Koshi and uncertainty over how active the rest of us would behave. If you're going down the road of associative reads I think there's more interesting interactions than just backpatting. + Show Spoiler + On December 09 2016 19:42 cakepie wrote: okay, but you haven't answered my questions. On December 10 2016 22:42 cakepie wrote: No, you misunderstand that quoted. I'm saying that I gimped #186 because I had associative reads in my head at that time but chose not to put them in #186. I wanted to give time for the number of interactions to increase. I wanted to continue pushing TW further into solid scum territory. Given time, if I am right about their association, I will get more material, and a stronger basis to associate ExO to solidscum!TW. Tipping them off that I'm on their tail may make them more guarded and harder to catch. At the time of #186, I had - the niggling feeling that ExO was evasive, especially re TW - the only ?solid content? was attacking CR's case (proxy defending TW) - the N0 interactions. Ray, I wish I had the luxury of time to engage with you, but my focus is going to have to be on working with NU. Unless TW and/or ExO extend good faith to me. But they're not doing so. Today was supposed to be me helping NU town you so we can lynch scum together, but now I have a different task. I'll clarify/correct you when you don't get what I'm saying or if you misunderstand what I wrote (like above). Things I tell NU, you can read and process as well. Otherwise you're on your own to figure stuff. But I don't think you need my help. I hope you'll do what you can. Maybe at some point NU will be willing to read you on good faith. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On December 09 2016 19:25 Chairman Ray wrote: When hopeless gets back, I would like to hear his answer for this: + Show Spoiler + On December 09 2016 20:20 Chairman Ray wrote: Here's my take on it The spite vote in itself wasn't the suspicious part for me. The spite vote combined with the timing of it was really fishy. Hopeless clearly stated that he wants to lynch TW: However, hopeless only voted after you and I rescinded our votes. He was on during the entire time, so he could have pushed it to 3 votes and maybe gotten the lynch. However he chose to vote after we rescinded when his vote was completely useless. Tumblewood answered a different one instead, and hopeless kept pushing. I think there was a little miscommunication here. I was about to interject and clarify it, but wanted to see how it would play out instead. In the end, hopeless did not ever correct Tumblewood on answering the wrong question, and decided to vote him anyways. To me that seems like Hopeless wasn't that interested in TW's answer anyways. With these three things combined, there's a bunch of ways you could interpret it, but the motive I'm concerned about is that Hopeless just wanted to distance himself from TW. It would give rise to the scenario where hopeless is scum with TW. That would also explain why TW seemed quite unconcerned with 3 people voting him at EOD. If I were town in that position, I would be begging people to get their votes off so that mafia couldn't hammer it. TW was unphased by it until after the day ended, and then proceeded to post a few big long posts, which would have made more sense to post before EOD. It's late and I'm not sure if I'm getting my read across, but to summarize, I think this is a possible scenario: Hopeless and TW are mafia together Hopeless thinks "oh crap, TW is under a lot of fire, everyone's on him but me. I better draw some distance too" Hopeless draws distance by doing the whole binary question thing and also threatening to vote him, but doesn't follow up on TW answer the question Chairman Ray and cakepie vote TW TW thinks "Well, I know for a fact that Hopeless won't kill me, and NU won't vote me either, so I'm safe" Chairman Ray and cakepie unvote TW Hopeless votes TW and says "I'm 51/49 on killing you!" That just one way I could interpret this really awkward exchange between TW and hopeless. I don't really see a scenario where hopeless is mafia and TW is town, that seems really weird to me. If hopeless is town and had good town intentions, I would like him to speak for himself, which is why I asked him earlier. + Show Spoiler + On December 10 2016 10:04 Chairman Ray wrote: Still catching up on the thread, but here's a couple things I want answered: @cakepie: Why did you fakeclaim? @NeverUnlucky: At the time, 2 cops have claimed. Why were you under the suspicion that one of them might be VT, and why did you vote on TW, despite claiming the possibility that he's VT? + Show Spoiler + On December 10 2016 10:12 Chairman Ray wrote: Because I checked Koshi Reading through your gigantic case now. + Show Spoiler + On December 10 2016 10:51 Chairman Ray wrote: I have to agree here. This is a perspective that i didnt consider. Initially when i made my "lynch tw+nu" post, I had some red flags, but didnt feel at the time they were mafia, but their reaction to my push made no sense coming from town. What I failed to consider was that they were not reacting to what I said, but rather how i pushed it. I can see the possibility of tw and nu reacting the way they did from a town perspective. Im gonna reevaluate on those two. + Show Spoiler + On December 10 2016 18:44 Chairman Ray wrote: cakepie, I read over your case. There's a lot I like, and some I don't like. Firstly, I think you might also have a little of the same tunnel syndrome that I sort of had against NU that you called me out for. Some of the reads that you posted aren't alignment indicative and read more like "I don't like how this person is playing". Maybe it makes more sense in your head and you didn't bother to explain everything fully given the sheer length of your post. I would like to draw attention to one thing: You said that the case on ExO was weak compared to the associative reads you had at this time. So I looked at all your associative reads prior to #186, ignoring everything that came after, or any individual reads (because they were apparently weak). I don't fully buy that you had enough evidence to make an associative case at the time that you claimed. Can you please explain your thoughts at the moment where you had associative reads but didn't post them? There's a few more thoughts I had, but I'll share them afterwards. A couple things I would add to the ExO case from my own personal reads. During the entire game, nearly every single post ExO made on me was really unfair and misconstrued me into a mafia mold, and was somewhat OMGUS. At the time I read this as town who honestly didn't know who was mafia. This would make sense if ExO came into this game, saw some red flags in me, and then held a strong bias that I must be mafia. Because a legit mafia would know that I'm town, and will only have a logical bias against me to try to get me lynched, but the OMGUS doesn't make any sense if I never gone on him for anything. So I thought he was just being a biased town; however, if I came into the game guns blazing against his mafia buddy, that would explain the OMGUS part. Earlier I posted an associative read where TW could be mafia with hopeless, because TW did not feel threatened at all at EoD from 3 people voting him, and hopeless deliberately missing his vote would explain it. If ExO+TW was the mafia team, that would also be reasonable, because NU was leaning town on TW, so there was no risk of hammering. I think that it's definitely plausible that TW+ExO is the scumteam. I'm currently on a weekend trip, so I can't delve it too much now. I'll be on for a short while Saturday night, and I'll be on Sunday before the deadline. *to be continued* | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On December 08 2016 10:49 Chairman Ray wrote: I don't think you represented my case fairly. I want to know what you think of TW and NU. When you read over their 'game math' posts, does it read to you like town who are actively trying to win the game? Why didn't you push them for it? On December 07 2016 16:35 Chairman Ray wrote: I have the opposite impression of NU's explanation. All I did was ask the two of them what their townreads were. NU reacted by distancing himself. On December 07 2016 16:26 Chairman Ray wrote: Just to expand on my previous point, I didn't mean that scum would only post in best case scenarios, but instead that they might mistakenly ignore a very obvious scenario that town wouldn't. The one scenario that was almost ignored was a blue getting killed N0. If they were town, they could have genuinely believed that if a blue died, we don't have to do anything differently, but if they were mafia, maybe they weren't planning to blue snipe so they ignored it. But the bigger thing they left out was the scenario that mafia fakeclaims, in which case there are no confirmed town or redchecks on D1. There's a fairly good chunk of math in this scenario which they shouldn't have ignored. Unless of course they knew that mafia wasn't going to fakeclaim, and look where we are now. So just to summarize, these are my suspicions: - TW and NU post math assuming that blue roles don't die - Koshi was killed, who I don't think was a blue snipe - TW and NU ignore the scenario that mafia fakeclaims - Mafia aren't fakeclaiming So yes, I think it's very possible that they were just speaking casually on whatever was at the top of their mind, but given that they decided to math out a very narrow scenario without much reasoning, and that scenario happened exactly as they assumed, it seems like a really big coincidence. On December 09 2016 20:38 Chairman Ray wrote: Yeah, after both you and TW gave me shit for the way I present my reads, I know that I fucked that up. If I see someone do something that has a clear mafia motive, but can also be interpreted from a town side, I just push them for being mafia, and accuse them for one of the many scenarios that could have occurred. If they tell me a valid town perspective, then we're great, but if they can't give me a perspective that makes sense coming from town, then lynch lynch lynch. I realized after both you and TW gave me shit for it that the push just falls flat due to some glaringly obvious logic flaws. TW reacting similarly to you was the only slight townread I have on him, and that was why I rescinded my vote on him before EOD. To your other question, if TW is town, NU is scum, my original suspicion was hopeless. This post gave me a slight yellow flag that I was keeping an eye on: He asked me about ExO and cakepie, but leaving hopeless out, which is a weak associative tell. If there continued to be this awkward silence between the two of them, that would have definitely been a red flag for me. However, after EOD with the hopeless-TW interaction, it's just too weird to believe that hopeless can be scum without TW. Also at the time, I had no case against hopeless besides his inactivity. NU hasn't been playing the last half of the game, so there's not much more to read into. Right now, I just want him to answer the case that I have already presented. My strongest read right now is still TW and NU. On December 09 2016 19:52 Chairman Ray wrote: I feel that it's very difficult to get through to you because you are interpreting everything I say in the worst possible way when I didn't mean it that way. On December 09 2016 19:04 Chairman Ray wrote: ExO, I don't think your read on me is fair, and to some extent, it's my fault for hunting scum on my own rather than being engaged with town. I think that you are town, so I will explain to you exactly what my thought process was. I really need you and all remaining town to trust me, or at least take my reads seriously, because we all need to vote together tomorrow to lynch the mafia. Where I'm at right now is that TW and NU are the mafia, you are town, cakepie is town, hopeless is town, and obviously I am town. I have mainly pushed onto TW and NU because there are only two mafia, and it's most definitely those two. I think we can all agree that TW is mafia. I pushed onto NU many times and he's given me shoddy answers the first few times, and he's literally disappeared now and hasn't responded to anything else I posted. I posted a case on him that I want him to respond to, and I want all the town to consider as well, and so far, neither has happened. Also, nobody else has given a strong case against anybody else. Do you see why I have no reason to get off of those two? I haven't pushed much on anybody else besides TW and NU, but that doesn't mean I haven't been considering or caring about them. As for you, hopeless, and cake, there's a lot I like about your play, and a lot that I don't like, but there's little that I can point to and say "hmm, this play is really advancing the scum agenda, and scum would instinctively do this". I don't post townreads or speculative posts on people because me not being able to scumread someone doesn't mean someone else can't. If someone convinces me of a better option than TW or NU, I'm willing to reconsider. I should probably be more actively engaging with people, and that's my bad. I also feel that I'm being singled out for tunneling. If you look at other people's filters, Hopeless has been tunneling only on TW, cakepie has mostly been on TW and you, and you haven't been aggressive enough to even be considered for tunneling. So besides the fact that I literally said that I'm tunneling onto TW and NU, singling me out seems a little biased. notice how, speaking to cakepie, he is always cooperative, ranging from simple response to a question to simple question to agreement to agreement with constructive criticism. he never disagrees to any major extent like he does with exo, never feels the need to correct him, never finds any trouble with communication. again, if you looked at his responses to me or NU, it would be a whole different picture. *to be continued* | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On December 07 2016 15:27 cakepie wrote: But do you agree that (conscientious) town would not carelessly only post in best case scenarios? Because that's the part that makes all the plan fluff at least anti-town, if not immediately obv scum. Can you elaborate? I agree with NU's buddy-suspicion and see it possibly going further back to trying to put focus on plans. Help me see why it's not a buddy, and moreso not straight up painting them all green together with Koshi. On December 08 2016 18:48 cakepie wrote: This guy, not even read, doesn't even know where and why I town tunneled him. Have you been IAW playing that other game again instead of playing the mafia game you signed up for? I'm drafting something on TW. Will get back to you. On December 08 2016 20:39 cakepie wrote: Announcing it serves the purpose that people don't start acting all surprised and worked up when they perceive me 'suddenly' get all up in your face. Cuz, y'know, some folks can't spot hints or read between the lines. Gotta spell it all out. Not explaining it now has a town motivation of denying information to scum. I don't see a need to explain everything now and give scum time to ponder over it. Town doesn't need my full explanation today (game D1, not real time), but will have it by tomorrow (that is to say, D2.) when it matters. --- You do you. I'm pretty much done with TW for now unless we get some earth-shattering revelation. Lynch him today failing which continue lynching him tomorrow. You "largely agree with [my] reasoning", so what part do you not agree with? Besides the bit about the gamble. --- Anyhow, we don't have time to muck about. Can't afford to wait for one scum to flip before looking for others. Should be obvious that I'm looking at you next ExO; still in the midst of diving your filter atm. Gotta take a break for dinner and brief relax but when I get back, watch out! On December 09 2016 03:46 cakepie wrote: Hm, maybe not completely zero, but there is this bit: But still there is very little: #98 TW looks Town. <-- no elaboration! #107 "Why are you making me scumread TW?" <-- couched read?! #153 cakepie isn't an asshat and TW's tone is off #161 "largely agrees" with my TW case <-- no elaboration! On December 09 2016 04:31 cakepie wrote: TW, just to be clear where I stand on this: it's not "viewpoint -> new evidence -> change viewpoint" in my eyes. There's no new evidence or new information; nothing changed materially. He messed up plain and simple. The question is whether the reason for messing up is innocuous or sinister. - try to find dirt on TW, finds it difficult; feels "skeptical" of his own "best lead" - blame me for influencing him to tryhard to scumread TW - realize he actually messed up the read, admits error If he thought his read wasn't exactly good, why not hold off and take another look? It's not a speed contest. There's also an element of feeling somehow compelled or obliged to post a scumread even if he has to force it. Awkward! Finally, insinuating that I'm somehow responsible for forcing him to find suspicion when he didn't suspect TW before. WTF? No comments on my case, like "I agree/disagree with this part." On December 09 2016 19:40 cakepie wrote: (Not sure where you got the idea that I'm female, I'm not.) Outstanding things you haven't responded to me or elaborated about:
Maybe this time I'll finally get those answers and elaboration from you, now that I've gone and collated the questions for you in one spot? --- Easy for you to say this, very hard for me to see your progression and reasons. Can you filter TW for me and tell me which posts are scummy/towny to and why. this is cakepie responding to ExO. notice not only how much more volume this is (this is only halfway through his filter, and from ctrl+f I see there are at least 16 more instances on page 3 alone), but how much more confrontational cakepie is. where with ray he acts like a partner, with exo he acts like an opponent or at least a debater. it feels more like I'm playing against an alliance than two individuals with ray and cakepie | ||
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good. dunno why I'd ever let cakepie tell me how to play; NU actually has more experience if you count that other site. I've given up on reading everything cakepie says. all of it seems really last-ditch to me — frenzy mode. if I'm feeling particularly useful I might put together a big ol' post on why ray is scum, and after that I'll answer questions but everything should fall into place by itself. sorry to put so much pressure on you, NU. vote who you think is scum any time you feel ready, as long as it's before two and you vote ray and cakepie, please don't kill yourself caring too much about a forum game. | ||
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in remembrance: On December 10 2016 10:05 Chairman Ray wrote: How did you know game was going to end? SCUMSLIP SCUMSLIP SCUMSLIP | ||
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On December 11 2016 16:20 Chairman Ray wrote: cakepie you are a fucking HERO. If we end up winning this, it'll all be because of you. If we lose, it's 100% my fault for being stupid and signing up for a mafia game when I had a day trip today. yeah because he's your fucking teammate | ||
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On December 12 2016 01:40 cakepie wrote: There are two narratives possible for what I'm doing. town cakepie cakepie has discovered the scumteam and their nefarious plan scum cakepie cakepie and CR have come up with a nefarious plan to mislead town. This plan involves contorting the filters of two townies to make it look like they are a scumteam with a nefarious plan. Occam's razor, yo. this is not how occam's razor works at all if assuming you and ray are the scumteam and having a nefarious plan is two assumptions, how is me and ExO being the scumteam and having a nefarious plan one assumption? 0/10 terrible post | ||
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On December 11 2016 16:58 ExO_ wrote: But I know that you can't be scum, because if CR was actually town the game would've been over already after I voted for him. I know you have to be telling the truth because of that fact alone. But Jesus Christ dude sometimes you say things that look scummy as hell. also your "ExO is not considering other options" thing doesn't even work because if you are me or ExO you can determine that ray's partner can only be you or NU, and if you have half a brain you can determine that NU is town | ||
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On December 11 2016 19:48 ExO_ wrote: This is quite a last ditch scum effort from CP/CR. It's full of some pretty coordinated bullshit I think I've presented myself well, and I think this is very obviously a last ditch effort to win the game. NU the game is in your hands. These posts from CP/CR are big, but they are full of garbage. Lines like this from CR: "ExO is seriously considering that you might be mafia, because of a case I presented." should tell you everything you need to know. ofc I was considering you were mafia. I have to consider every possibility, in particular that my reads might be wrong. No where in CR's posts does he explain why if he was the cop does he only have 2 pages in his filter. Why he strictly tunneled you and TW the entire game. Why he didn't breadcrumb at all. Why both he and cakepie tried to start a a train on Day 1, when it's clearly an incredible risk to do so instead of just waiting a day. Compare TWs effort all game long, despite constantly being pressured. His posts all game long. He has at least been trying all game long. CR only shows up now. Is that what a cop would do? Post barely anything and tunnel 2 players all game long? Don't fall for this last ditch effort by CP/CR NU. <3 | ||
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I hope I don't need to explain why | ||
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NU ur exceptional but cakepie ur bad ExO ur alright I'm alright too | ||
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On December 12 2016 07:09 Hopeless1der wrote: TW I wanna know why you took the time to blow up a fake case on me, just so you could crumb a copcheck in there. I tilt hard on OMGUS, and that was the final straw where I convinced myself you must be scum. Plus side I baited the shot but still...I dont agree with that play from you. idk. I didn't want it to stick out and I expected to do everyone but in retrospect it was pretty stupid because I can never make more than 3 extensive cases in a game before stopping | ||
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On December 12 2016 05:41 cakepie wrote: Yes. The point when the game was irretrievably lost was when TW shut the door on me. If he was more receptive, I maybe maybe maybe I could have sorted it out. I tri ed to give you a chance on D2 but you spent all game crusading to lynch me and to save chairman ray — I was looking for a glimmer of hope, but you continued writing these huge terrible cases (the logic really was atrocious in many instances) campaigning for the mafia agenda. how the hell do I scumread NU over the guy who is helping confscum ray more than ray is helping confscum ray? :/ | ||
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