EPT[M][T] 1-Day Mafia - Page 9
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
| ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
| ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On June 21 2016 05:52 CopCake wrote: Rayn am i town or mafia to you? town. | ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
| ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On June 21 2016 19:29 Skynx wrote: Shape wasn't around for Super lynch and he didn't even confirm his vote so I can take him off based on my reasoning of mafia plot. So you completely disagree with the "scum were trying to shoot the same person town shoots" argument? Why? | ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
| ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
| ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
 How the fuck someone gets a flu in the middle of summer??Skynx is probably not scum since he is not taking any outs he is being given here. If it's just super good mafia play then i tip my hat to him. More likely though he just genuinely believes in what he says and how he thinks the kill went off. | ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On June 22 2016 01:10 Shapelog wrote: Eh, I do one more post towards actively defending myself before I just ignore it and (hopefully) find scum. I plan things out as scum. This is very fucking evdicent in the scum qt's of mine. Now, you can say all you want about me being AFK or what not, but I would of already have started to talk to Super about a plan of some sorts, or have detail what I wanted to do in day 1 (as I was being town read, and most likely scum!Shape would of thought he would of reached D1) and super would of known what I was planning. I also have a agenda that works with said plan. Tell me, what is my agenda here? Shoot Yammty, argue with people that I was frame and magically I will win? Especially with Ryan and Rsoul, who know me very well, being in the game? Not to mention, that I am super aware of how people see me as scum, and would of adapted to the situation, and not do something so stupid. I am not going to argue if Super would or wouldn't shoot Yammto cause I really do not fucking known period. It could be for Ryan's reasoning, it could be a frame shot (Since I was afk, and could be a target) etc. I have no evdince, unlike my meta point above, to based anything on, and am not going to lead this into a a WIFOM measuring contest. Yes, I am a cute scummer that likes cute plays sure. I also know how to play a soild scum mafia style as well, and would be doing so due to my reputation I built after storm. I am not dumb, hell, in name SL jumped me after my 1st few posts for being "cute". IK people know that I am known for this kinda Bullshit, and very few other people (certainly not anyone in this game, other then maybe cake, which I would've known anyways before shot) do what I am known to do. I mean, outside of the shot, why am I scum? I guess you could add my defensiveness to it, yet meta wise that can go either way. I'll try to explain as well as i possibly can. This is not only to Shapelog but to all the players. 1. The night kill and the framing theory. If you assume the framing theory is correct, you have to assume the play goes into motion when Superbia starts calling a shot on me in thread. It basically has to, because that's when he became a reasonable shot target for the town - aka started looking scummy. Now if we go with your theory, it makes absolutely no sense for either me or rsoultin to make such play. Yamato is already a scumread for basically all the players in the game, and he hard-townreads me and townreads rsoultin. Basically regardless what yamato does, starts playing better or not, he is already in a position where he cannot possibly call either of us mafia on D1, and that makes my / rsoultin's job easier in case we are mafia. Or if he does, he will look worse than which again makes our job easier - since he will be even more likely to get lynched. That is why i completely discarded rsoultin from being mafia right after the day start. It just makes absolutely no sense for her to make the game HARDER to win, especially since what she said is completely correct, if she was mafia there is a chance that i pick up something on her, let it be a fuck-up or not and get her lynched. 2. Based on the above, i thought mafia is in you, Skynx and Cake. I don't believe in the framing theory. I don't believe it is true, even if you are town Shapelog. Just because there are too many assumptions to be made for the scumteam BEFORE the things that happened did happen. That's why it sounds utterly retarded to me. If someone framed you they would have to (1) predict 3 hours before the deadline that you are not gonna show up, (2) predict that yamato starts making irrational posts about Superbia and (3) predict that someone brings up the "Shapelog is scum" theory after the deadline (technically this could indicate rsoultin, but again -- see 1. ). If ALL of those things do not happen, scum are absolutely fucked, always. The play is just so bad it doesn't make any sense for anyone. So yes, the easiest explanation is that there is noone trying to frame you if you are town. This brings me to the following: Who would make that night kill? You totally would -- for the reasons brought up before. Even if we completely ignore the afk thing, you could still make the kill (or Superbia), because yamato voted for you. Skynx could make the kill too, for the reasons outlined. While yamato didn't call him his #1 scum (i assume, since he voted to night vigi you) he was one of the people calling Skynx mafia. I thought Cake wouldn't make the kill, apparently she could have. So at this point i am at Shapelog Skynx Cake Here is why i think Skynx is not mafia: On June 22 2016 00:17 raynpelikoneet wrote: Skynx is probably not scum since he is not taking any outs he is being given here. If it's just super good mafia play then i tip my hat to him. More likely though he just genuinely believes in what he says and how he thinks the kill went off. Like throughout the day he has been presented differing scenarios that are logically sound and call someone else scum, he chooses to not take any of them. Even when at least me and rsoultin were considering the possibility of him being mafia he stood his ground. It's extremely unlike he does that as mafia. I don't think he is right in what he assumes happened, but that doesn't make him scum, since what he is saying makes sense. Here is why i think Cake is not mafia: Cake called out the difference in Shapelog's behavior after the deadline. There actually is a notable difference. I think that was one of the best notions anyone has made in this game, albeit it was based on one post. But it has continued, and Cake is quite good in reading into those kinda things before other people. Also regardless of what Cake says, i think she would have still shot me since i am the most likely person to get her lynched if she is mafia. I also believe, based on the PYP scum QT, if Cake was mafia Superbia probably had a lot to say in the night kill. In PYP Cake never decided the night kills, since she was busy (like she is now). If Superbia decided the kill by himself, yamato is never going to be shot here, unless again, Shapelog or Skynx (people yamato called mafia) is scum. 3. Shapelog's behavior during Day 1. Normally when flips happen, people get new information and use that information to update their reads and make conclusions from the reads. Shapelog goes to the other direction. In these posts here, here and here, he basically presents a theory and starts mulling it over. That in itself is not bad or scummy, but when the mulling over goes on and on and on and never ends up in any decent conclusion while there are decent points and arguments why, based on his theory, certain people look way more townie than the rest of the people from the group (see 1. and 2.). It just doesn't make any sense that he never comes to any real conclusion on any of the people, and that is characteristic to his scumplay. In Storm mafia for example, Shapelog was ALWAYS the last person to vote, and last person to voice his opinion. Exaggeratedly saying his scumplay revolves around hanging in shadows and just make the town lynch some other people and then wait people to call other people scum. At this moment, at least when started to write this post, he STILL has no conclusions. In my opinion those conclusions should be fairly easy to make if you just take a couple of tens of minutes to read what ACTUALLY happened at the end of D1. Shapelog has been posting a lot, yet not done this. TLDR; Why Shapelog is mafia: 1. process of elimination 2. last paragraph | ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On June 22 2016 01:53 rsoultin wrote: it sounds like you know what you have to do but still aren't doing it. rofl.  | ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On June 22 2016 02:30 Skynx wrote: Vito Corleone: yo super my boy go act scummy so they kill you then we shoot Yamato so they start day from zero. I'm gona push you aswell so they don't suspect me one bit. Superbia: Sure papa. Shape can't be mafia cuz he'd be around for pushing super last minute. Or at least thats how i see things. The problem with this is the following: Let's say -3 is town victory and 3 is mafia victory on the scale. Why would mafia wanna start from 0 when they can start from 2? That is the crux of the argument. | ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
Because i know noone else in this game thinks so. Even if you think that's what mafia could have done it is 100% certain that noone else does (well Cake says she does but... even Superbia doesn't and as i said i dont think superbia would have let cake make that kill for your reasoning). Noramlly scum kill people who: 1. are on the right track 2. are the biggest threat to your team 3. you can't lynch 4. blue reads (but that doesnt apply here) | ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
| ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
If you do, please do tell. | ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On June 22 2016 03:04 Skynx wrote: Cop is mafia. Think of your defence of her in your megapost last page with my pow. One key point with that logic which suggests cop is mafia aswell is that mafia under no circumstances can afford Super not getting lynched cuz they would lose then. So GF has to be someone who doesn't even consider voting for someone else on eod. Check 2 pages before, her 2 short posts are declaring vote on Super with no compromise. Me, you and tina are struggling and in the end go for Super. Shape is absent cuz whatever. The problem is why does Superbia make that play then? Cake was not scumread, Superbia was not scumread by anyone except me. Why not shoot me and be townread instead of making a play you don't even know will succeed? | ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
| ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
I just don't think it's the correct explanation here. | ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On June 22 2016 03:11 Skynx wrote: How does shooting you gives towncred? Super was scumread by three including me you n tina, Shape likely to vote Super aswell beacuase of earlier beef. He was not scumread before he started attacking me. As i said before, if what you suggested is the correct explanation that's when the play is on already (Superbia wanting to get shot). That's why it doesn't make sense to me, because at that time i was the only person scumreading him. | ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
| ||
|
raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
I'll be back in at most 1 hour. | ||
| ||
