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A normal game just for JAT <3 - Page 25

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
April 30 2016 16:20 GMT
#3227
Wow almost 2 days since tumble last post. This guy is basically never posting unless he has to. I can't imagine voting sl over him, I would have to find a real scumslip to even consider that option
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
April 30 2016 20:39 GMT
#3228
Well I'm home early actually ^^ will eat / spend time with my GF then the great rereading will begin
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
April 30 2016 21:25 GMT
#3230
On April 29 2016 02:52 Tumblewood wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 29 2016 01:56 sicklucker wrote:
On April 28 2016 14:56 Tumblewood wrote:
Also he has clearly been pushing/testing the waters for an early game end (aka killing me before we have to, aka objectively suboptimal play that a townie should not be doing)
SL has also been joining in which has me worried


tumble if your posting the truth here then I should be confirmed town to you now. because you clearly believed rels was never changing his vote

you're not truly confirmed town, but you might as well be because I'm not voting you over rels. you can't just do something and then tell us that it means you're confirmed town.

On April 29 2016 03:11 Tumblewood wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 29 2016 03:03 sicklucker wrote:
I just did. and from your pov I should be so I dont know why your arguing it. I can understand rels arguing it over you

let's be honest here:
scum kills jat tonight, and then it's me vs rels with you as the hammer. there's no way in a million years that both I and Rels vote you tomorrow, so you get to gloat about how confirmed you are if you want. happy?

I didn't like those two posts at all. Tumble is way too sure of how things are going. SL is almost confirmed town when he was doubtful about sicklucker not that long ago. The NK wasn't a forgone conclusion too, unless he's scum then from his POV it is. If he thinks I'm scum, killing SL was a very possible option for me.
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
April 30 2016 21:25 GMT
#3231
SL I have a question which needs an elaborate answer.
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
April 30 2016 21:33 GMT
#3232
On April 30 2016 03:46 sicklucker wrote:
lvl 1 thinking is a rels mafia would nk me more. but not alot of value in that especially after I say it

SL I would like to know why you posted this.
If you really thought that, you should have posted this just before deadline in case you died ? By posting it way before deadline, if I was scum and saw that I could have changed my shot. If Tumble was scum he could have shot you to frame me. Or the opposite because WIFOM. All analysis that could be had from the NK was lost.
What was your motivation to post that ?
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
April 30 2016 23:12 GMT
#3237
On May 01 2016 07:42 sicklucker wrote:
I just say whats on my mind without much thought. its why people town read me

OK that explains it I suppose
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
April 30 2016 23:13 GMT
#3238
On May 01 2016 07:53 sicklucker wrote:
rels im voting you for now because in the scenerio where tumbleweed is afk town this way I hold the hammer in the event of a 1-1 vote tie. but consider my vote on him

this is completely logical and makes perfect sense to me but im sure you will get mad about it. dont overthink it. im just holding the hammer incase I read your filter and see mad scum slips or something. Town points that you didnt take it yourself tbh.

Because if your scum you see an afk town tumble. Theirs no reason you shouldnt snap vote tumble to hold the tie breaker here. But you didnt do it so your town or a really fucking dumb scum .

TBF if Tumble gets modkilled we can get a double kill
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
April 30 2016 23:15 GMT
#3239
Actually it"s a terrible idea since he can sneak a vote last second
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
April 30 2016 23:57 GMT
#3242
On May 01 2016 08:54 sicklucker wrote:
Also how would a double kill ever favor you. you know your town I dont get it

I was thinking about your POV.
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
April 30 2016 23:58 GMT
#3243
And if you would take the tiebreaker as town. But you would as either alignment
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
April 30 2016 23:59 GMT
#3244
Didn't end up rereading much 'cause I played rocket league, see you tomorrow to see if that's even worth it or if Tumble is still AFK. Going to sleep
##Vote Tumble
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
May 01 2016 00:01 GMT
#3246
On May 01 2016 09:00 sicklucker wrote:
sign this is not fun at all

Nope. TBF if he's scum, and he 99% is, rsoul & I caught him D1 and he was pressured since, it's understandable.
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
May 01 2016 09:55 GMT
#3280
On May 01 2016 16:53 Tumblewood wrote:
I didn't read anything on 163 (I assume it's mostly you too) but holy shit I'm actually hyped to play tomorrow. Although it's about one in the morning right now and I need to sleep, I'll get my game face on for tomorrow knowing that it really matters.

You're basically admitting you were fake AFK for 60 hours and only posted when you see you had a chance to not get lynched.
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
May 01 2016 09:56 GMT
#3281
sicklucker weren't you around when gumshoe JAT and I had this discussion about whether Superbia's vote and fakeclaim was making Tumble town ? It was discussed to death and JAT and I proved it didn't make Tumble town because at the time of the fakeclaim, it was a GB vs Superbia fight, regardless of the voting state
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
May 01 2016 09:57 GMT
#3282
This post
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
May 01 2016 09:58 GMT
#3283
I even asked you for your thoughts about it, that's the point of the game where you went "I will side with gumshoe because he's confirmed" instead of reading the post for yourself. p:
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
May 01 2016 10:01 GMT
#3284
Furthermore, Tumble never voted Superbia. Here is his reasonning for not doing so:
On April 18 2016 05:37 Tumblewood wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 18 2016 05:23 rsoultin wrote:
On April 18 2016 05:12 Tumblewood wrote:
On April 18 2016 04:25 rsoultin wrote:
On April 18 2016 04:06 Tumblewood wrote:
On April 18 2016 03:24 rsoultin wrote:
On April 18 2016 01:57 Tumblewood wrote:
On April 17 2016 12:47 rsoultin wrote:
On April 17 2016 06:51 Tumblewood wrote:
On April 17 2016 06:46 rsoultin wrote:
[quote]

okay so let's play a game here

you want me to treat you as confirmed town until your flip, then i want you to treat me as confirmed town as well

give me your other reads, with reasoning, and what questions you want me to answer that i've asked you for like 5 times already if you really want me to answer them

jat is town
jas is ??? but should be more apparent after he says who he is; giving him BotD
superbia is maybe scum (i have no good reasons on this one)
palmar is null because he's not really out of his comfort zone
i want to call rels and gumshoe scummy but that's mostly omgus
sl is a 49 out of 100 on the mafia scale for being inactive and saaying one slightly scummy thing
gb is a 50 out of 100 on the mafia scale for being inactive and saying nothing
onegu is a 51 out of 100 on the mafia scale for being inactive and saying nothing of value
ows is town because i like how he continued to townread me
fazers is scummy but also new so maybe just a scrub

tbh my reads are all based on spidey senses right now



@tumble...super maybe scum=no vote as alternate wagon...gb exactly null=vote as alternate wagon

care to explain?

I was afraid of voting Superbia and him flipping green (not as a likelihood thing, but if he did I forecast my own mislynch for the next day). GB lynch happened at a point where several more townies had come out and defended me and attacked Superbia, so it felt, in a way, less risky.


-squints at- i don't really understand this explanation

what is the difference between you being lynched d1 or d2? until gb ninja-voted he was prob not getting lynched over super, yet you were still voting yourself because you were worried you'd be lynched d2 if super flipped town? so d1 is okay but not d2?

explain the bolded like i'm 5. what is the significance of when the gb lynch happened and how was that less risky?

Because at that point it was clear that voting a counterwagon was the difference between dying and surviving instead of dying d1 and dying d2.
Of course, it turned out GB would have died without my help, but it still seemed up in the air at the time.


why?

when superbia was the counterwagon i thought i would for sure be lynched at some point
when gb was the counterwagon it became apparent that maybe i wouldn't be lynched


okay, so honestly, you're just really confusing me here. like you're not making sense and my first instinct is that should be scum but i think even scum would make more sense here, so i must just not be understanding @.@

it's as simple as...the wagons are between super and myself. if i want to live i need to vote super

then

the wagons are between gb, super and myself. if i want to live i need to vote one of them

why would your scumread flipping town be worse than your null read flipping town?

nononono
when super was the counterwagon it wasn't "if i want to live i need to vote super", it was "if i don't vote super i die d1 if i vote super i die d2"
then everyone left super for gb and people simultaneously said that i was town, so it became "if i don't vote gb i die d1 if i vote gb i don't die"
like i got so entrenched in thinking i was going to die that i didn't even see superbia as a survival wagon, just a delay death wagon

This is so BS. The real explanation is simpler: they are partners and Superbia was RB.
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
May 01 2016 10:08 GMT
#3285
BTW SL the way you acted when you think you discovered something new is your absolute town tell. You just don't do that as scum
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
May 01 2016 10:09 GMT
#3286
Alright I gotta AFK for a few hours, will do some posts resuming why I am town and why Tumble is scum when I come back.
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
May 01 2016 15:19 GMT
#3287
Why Tumble is scum

1. Tumble lied about his thought process D1. Townie do not lie about their thought process or invent why they posted something.

That's going back to D1, but that's still the biggest point against him. Apart maybe from his activity pattern.
To resume, Tumble asked rsoul early in the game to commit on an opinion on Fazer. rsoul later asked Tumble why he wanted her to commit. Tumble explained with the following: he was suspicious of a rsoul post in which she was OK to lynch Fazers. This post exists, but is made AFTER Tumble's question. That means several things:

1 - Tumble lied about his thought process. He said his original question was made because of a rsoul post that wasn't made a the time. Townie can forget the reason they make posts; what they don't is make up reasons.
2 - The scum thought process is logical; rsoul DID make the post Tumble is talking about - but after Tumble's question. What happened is that Tumble caught up, read the post and noted rsoul was OK to lynch Fazer for little reason; then when asked about why he pressured rsoul into her Fazer read, he bring up the rsoul post.

Posts relevant to this (last post by rsoul sum up the situation):
+ Show Spoiler +

On April 16 2016 03:44 Tumblewood wrote:
Do you think that "D1 is hard" is because Fazers is scum or because he's just a scrub?

On April 16 2016 12:32 rsoultin wrote:
so yeah still not sure who is actually scum here :/ it's kinda hard cause most of the people who have been posting i have some (if in general pretty weak) reasons to townread

i think i favor lynching superbia/fazer

@fazer...if you're just new town, dude, let me help you out. you're probably not going to find anything that makes you think someone is super scum, especially if you've never played with any of us before. but if you don't talk about what you think, who might be scum, etc. we have no way of reading you. posting your thoughts/reads is actually more important for us figuring out your alignment than anything else

slight preference for superbia because i can see fazer just not knowing what to do in his first game. obviously this could come from first-time scum just as easily but yeah...superbia's drive-by not gonna post bit seems like it could come from burn-out...at the very least unless he's just not gonna be back for deadline there's no need to even post the excuse in the first place

On April 17 2016 04:43 rsoultin wrote:
yay town circle is here! \o/ even if i'm not really feeling a superbia lynch that much anymore lol ><

pues, actually, tumble, why did you want me to commit on fazer? like why, specifically, did you want me to commit on an obviously nai post from a brand new player?

On April 17 2016 05:07 Tumblewood wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 17 2016 04:43 rsoultin wrote:
yay town circle is here! \o/ even if i'm not really feeling a superbia lynch that much anymore lol ><

pues, actually, tumble, why did you want me to commit on fazer? like why, specifically, did you want me to commit on an obviously nai post from a brand new player?

I didn't think you actually thought that was alignment indicative, so your "OK to lynch him" felt off. Cleared it up though.

On April 17 2016 05:10 rsoultin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 17 2016 05:07 Tumblewood wrote:
On April 17 2016 04:43 rsoultin wrote:
yay town circle is here! \o/ even if i'm not really feeling a superbia lynch that much anymore lol ><

pues, actually, tumble, why did you want me to commit on fazer? like why, specifically, did you want me to commit on an obviously nai post from a brand new player?

I didn't think you actually thought that was alignment indicative, so your "OK to lynch him" felt off. Cleared it up though.


...lol wow ><

just wow

okay yeah we can lynch tumble, or perhaps you'd like to try again and explain how you can see into the future and knew that i would later say i was okay with lynching fazer when you wrote this question



2. His activity pattern is scum indicative

Basically, he is very inactive lately. He has dropped off since the start of the game, which is something a lot of scum do. He only posts when he needs to. Example:
- during D4, his partner Onegu was lynched. He didn't post anything in the thread during the first 30 hours, but he ninja voted Onegu a few hours after the day start with no reasonning. Quotes:
+ Show Spoiler +

On April 24 2016 06:03 Tumblewood wrote:
but speaking of not playing the game i'm going to be gone until several hours after flips

His post before the start of D4.
On April 24 2016 14:38 Tumblewood wrote:
##vote: onegu

Ninja vote.
On April 25 2016 11:51 Tumblewood wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 25 2016 08:51 sicklucker wrote:
On April 23 2016 04:45 ritoky wrote:
Day 3 Vote Count


Justanotherscummer: (5) Obiwanshinobi, sicklucker, Tumblewood, sicklucker, justanothertownie, gumshoe, Onegu
Rels: (0) sicklucker
Onegu: (0) gumshoe
Gumshoe: (0) Onegu
Tumblewood: (3) Rels, Justanotherscummer, Onegu

Not voting: (0)



Currently Justanotherscummer is set to be lynched
until deadline.




this is super interesting and once again points to onegu being mafia. First hes on jas to secure the mislynch. But then when he sees jas is lynched without him he switches to tumble.

Now this could be to distance like shape likes to do or set up the next mislynch. But its pretty suspicous how onegus never on a mislynch this game. his vote for jas and then his switch to tumble WERE WITHIN A MINUTE. Thats pretty fucking damning tbh. What kind of town votes both wagons within 1 minute of each other with no explination? the only reasonable explanation is what I just came up with. He did it to set up the next day as scum

Onegu did have an explanation though... kinda. This is when he voted Shape:
Show nested quote +
On April 23 2016 04:28 Onegu wrote:
I think I would rather kill Tumble here. Sheeping Rsoul seems like a plan... Shape has looked ok in these last few posts...

##Unvote

##Vote: JustanotherScummer

and then someone immediately points out that that makes no sense
Show nested quote +
On April 23 2016 04:29 Onegu wrote:
##Unvote

##Vote: Tumble


Yeah oops

Show nested quote +
On April 23 2016 04:30 Onegu wrote:
Brainfart

so the real weird thing is that his thought process was disconnected between his read and his vote. you know, the worst guide to mafia I ever read had freudian slips as a scumtell... Onegu may be the only validation for that.

His first D4 post.

- during D5, where it was a no-lynch, he had only an handful of posts, the first on which was a case on me, which was super bad. It was done when in his previous posts, it looked like he wanted to see if he could get SL lynched, then was forced back to me.
- right now during D6, before his post earlier, he hadn't posted for 60 hours. He only posted when SL showed there was some possibility he could vote me. In his posts he also slips thazt he was fake AFK, 'cause he said "I will play now that I knoiw it really matters", IE he didn't post before BECAUSE he thought he would be lynched anyway. A townie does not do that, but fighting when you're the underdog as scum is very hard.

3. D1, he didn't vote Superbia to survive but switched to GB to survive

Superbia was RB, GB was VT. Tumble didn't the RB to survive even though he scumread him. BUT he voted the VT to survive even though he was null reading him.
Won't expand there because it has been discussed to death.

4. His reads are mostly unexplained or 1-line, with 2 exceptions.

This whole game, all of his reads have been shallowed. This is really different from what he's doing in other game I can't talk about. The two exceptions are:
- rsoul read. This one was super bad, riddled by bad reasons to scumread her. The worst part was when he scumread Superbia for being AFK; rsoul scumread Superbia for being AFK and having scum burnout; and Tumble
- the case on me. I responded to it, it was pretty bad and made after he realized he couldn't go for SL. No points made me scum apart from the no-voting Superbia, which is scummy from his POV if he's town. But even then he insisted less on the timing on the vote and more on "Rels reasons to scumread me over Superbia were bad" even though that is a fucking lie. rsoultin agreed reasons I had on both Superbia and Tumble and voted Tumble, she was town, why this makes me scum when a flipped town did it ?

5. Some NKs point at him, and all NKs are logical for scum!Tumble

First the NKs that do no point at Tumble, but are not town indicative either:
N1: Palmar hard scumread Superbia and is a great player, so it's logical he died.
N3: gumshoe was doc and hard scumread Onegu, so it's logical he died.
N5: JAT died. It's the logical kill for scum!SL or scum!Tumble. I would probably kill SL in that position if I was scum though, since JAT showed a lot of doubts and is a player that has a hard time lynching high profile players in general, contrary to SL.

These points at Tumble:
N2: rsoul died while hard scumreading Tumble. She was not the most townread person in the thread so a reason for her kill has to exist.
N4: OWS died. Neither scum!me or scum!SL would ever NK him when he showed the will to auto vote Tumble the day after. Both of us would have killed JAT.
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