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On February 19 2016 12:56 rsoultin wrote:
voting scott for info cause voting for info is bad and i sooooo want to be a baddie Since you still seem to be here, I disagree with your analysis that mafia is stupid with regards to the night actions.
I see it more like mafia who is more worried about power roles, thought that Shapelog and sicklucker were both power roles, and were worried about potential medic save on Shapelog (even if sicklucker is the medic).
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On February 19 2016 12:47 Trfel wrote:
Anyway, I believe Tictock had some questions for me regarding my Tumblewood read? I've said all that I have to say about it, I really do think that he is town because that is by far the simplest explanation, and anything else is pure paranoia. Oh, and Tictock, I feel that your vote is suspicious because "I wanted to lynch Palmar because if he is scum, Trfel is scum too" feels like a really horrible reason to me. I guess I can see it coming from town, but it feels so fabricated, and a bit unrefined. I guess I thought it was widely acknowledged that lynching for information is not good, which is largely what this reason came down to, and I struggle a bit to see this come from experienced town.
Back to my voting analysis, yay.
Eh I think your stretching what happend if you think I voted Palmar kus I thought it would give info about your alignment.
I made that comment more as an afterthought than as a reason why I voted Palmar.
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On February 19 2016 12:27 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2016 18:25 Tictock wrote:4) Tumblewood 5) Breshke 6)nooniansoong 8) The Shining 9) Scott 11) Rsoultin 12GlowingBear 13) sicklucker Ok this was where I was at earlier, Shining's recent posts make me fairly convinced he is town, Bre and Tumble are also townleans for me. So that leaves me with.... 6)nooniansoong 9) Scott 11) Rsoultin 12GlowingBear 13) sicklucker Rsoul is pretty null to me, I see her mostly playing peacekeeper and her posting style makes it a bit hard to read her. Overall though she is pretty engaged and has been pretty open with sharing her thoughts so she's probably not a great lynch today. SL is kinda in the same boat for me, and I'm tempted to just put him on a back burner but I promised to filter dive him. So here I go... + Show Spoiler [FilterDive] +First 3 posts still feel off to me, but Rsoul pointed out that his early posts were probably in response to Trfel's open so that might explain the odd feels I'm getting. I'm actually not a fan at all of the vote on Eden. It looks really opportunistic to me, and the followup reasoning is pretty shit. On February 16 2016 09:07 sicklucker wrote:
Edens never anything but vt or mafia with that post. I think are day one lynch is locked up see ya torm I also called this post out earlier because of the bolded, On February 16 2016 09:13 sicklucker wrote:
because on a somewhat pointless day one if I suspect someone as being mafia and not a powerole I will target them always. I dont even have to be too sure its just always the safe play I actually shouldn't have dropped this point, kus SL was talking about THIS particular D1 being pointless in this post which doesn't really make sense. I'm kinda thinking this was just an excuse to leave his vote on Eden. This is kinda backed up by the fact that SL is now saying he was voting for information but got none since nobody else voted Eden. I do sorta agree with SL about the setup speculation point. It's more beneficial to mafia than town imo, least in a semi-open setup like this. This read progression looks odd to me as well. On February 16 2016 15:57 sicklucker wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2016 15:55 Tictock wrote:
Well, did you get any read off of Trfel and Eden in their exchange?
Who do you think is trying to build themselves towncred?
You and Shape were just on a mafia team together, do you have any insights into his alignment?
Maybe you could try to talk about stuff like that rather than complain that the day is boring. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/H1ZRySi.gif) town On February 17 2016 07:10 sicklucker wrote:
shapelogs town. im sure its my only read of the game. and maybe ticktock That first post is pretty confident, so what's making him unsure about me in the next post? Also this Shape read is outa nowhere. Another odd post, so far SL has only given reads on me and Shape, so this is his first mafia read but he doesn't want to push Rsoul kus she can spew herself town? On February 17 2016 10:40 sicklucker wrote:
rsoultin is giving me mafia vibes but I still wouldnt lynch her day one because like me she has a sick ability.
Its called the spew yourself town ability its the best ability to have I'm not at all sure how SL came up with these names. I'd argue that GB, Kush and to a lesser extent Tumble have all been just as lackluster at this point in the game. On February 17 2016 11:45 sicklucker wrote:
ya lets just lynch scott or shining. literally no one else should be up untill they participate There's a pretty good shot SL is scum here, he is playing the path of least resistance on the lynch today and the one scum read he seems to have he doesn't want to push. Neither Kush nor Scott have done much to warrant any townreads, but I also don't see much mafia motivation in their posts either. Kush is not as active as I've seen him in recent games, but that's not necessarily indicative of much. Been a long time since i played with Scott and his posts could come from either alignment. I don't know what to do about GB. On the one hand I think he could actually be town, but on the other I'm very unimpressed with what he has posted thus far. Policy lynch is an option. + Show Spoiler +Just to be clear I'm suggesting this because GB is clearly not making an effort to make himself readable this game, and if he is town I doubt he is going to be terribly helpful anyways So I think this all leaves me wanting to lynch SL, and possibly policy lynch GB.
##Vote: Sicklucker This post...it's in the spoiler most people probably didn't read cause ppl are awesome that way ^^ eh nvm it's actually prob nothing lol @.@ he accepts my interpretation of sl's first posts...for some reason i thought there was more in there than there was
Glad you could clear this up for you!
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On February 19 2016 13:01 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2016 12:47 Trfel wrote:
Anyway, I believe Tictock had some questions for me regarding my Tumblewood read? I've said all that I have to say about it, I really do think that he is town because that is by far the simplest explanation, and anything else is pure paranoia. Oh, and Tictock, I feel that your vote is suspicious because "I wanted to lynch Palmar because if he is scum, Trfel is scum too" feels like a really horrible reason to me. I guess I can see it coming from town, but it feels so fabricated, and a bit unrefined. I guess I thought it was widely acknowledged that lynching for information is not good, which is largely what this reason came down to, and I struggle a bit to see this come from experienced town.
Back to my voting analysis, yay. Eh I think your stretching what happend if you think I voted Palmar kus I thought it would give info about your alignment. I made that comment more as an afterthought than as a reason why I voted Palmar. Hm, okay. Then, why did you vote for Palmar?
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Trfel this is basically who I considered my options after my failed catchup
On February 18 2016 05:51 Tictock wrote:
Ugh I'm really torn here, SL's response to my push was decent.
GB has made some more serious posts in the past few hours but I'm not really sure the content was really there.
Palmar might not be a bad lynch he really has never made much of an impact nor has his push on Bre ever been explained.
I could also flip scott kus he has a bad habit of rolling scum...
Palmar looked like the best lynch.
I didn't get your stuff on scott about his Bre read, and I didn't have a reason to scumread him.
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On February 19 2016 12:59 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2016 12:56 rsoultin wrote:
voting scott for info cause voting for info is bad and i sooooo want to be a baddie Since you still seem to be here, I disagree with your analysis that mafia is stupid with regards to the night actions. I see it more like mafia who is more worried about power roles, thought that Shapelog and sicklucker were both power roles, and were worried about potential medic save on Shapelog (even if sicklucker is the medic).
shhhh if i call them stupid and they start growling at me for unexplained reasons, we've found mafia!
ye, i guess they could have thought getting rid of a medic sl was the best way to play that, but that still falls into the stupid cat...anyone thinking sl is actually blue with his posting at night and all that should have their head examined lol ><
(tbf you're prob right)
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On February 19 2016 13:02 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2016 12:27 rsoultin wrote:On February 17 2016 18:25 Tictock wrote:4) Tumblewood 5) Breshke 6)nooniansoong 8) The Shining 9) Scott 11) Rsoultin 12GlowingBear 13) sicklucker Ok this was where I was at earlier, Shining's recent posts make me fairly convinced he is town, Bre and Tumble are also townleans for me. So that leaves me with.... 6)nooniansoong 9) Scott 11) Rsoultin 12GlowingBear 13) sicklucker Rsoul is pretty null to me, I see her mostly playing peacekeeper and her posting style makes it a bit hard to read her. Overall though she is pretty engaged and has been pretty open with sharing her thoughts so she's probably not a great lynch today. SL is kinda in the same boat for me, and I'm tempted to just put him on a back burner but I promised to filter dive him. So here I go... + Show Spoiler [FilterDive] +First 3 posts still feel off to me, but Rsoul pointed out that his early posts were probably in response to Trfel's open so that might explain the odd feels I'm getting. I'm actually not a fan at all of the vote on Eden. It looks really opportunistic to me, and the followup reasoning is pretty shit. On February 16 2016 09:07 sicklucker wrote:
Edens never anything but vt or mafia with that post. I think are day one lynch is locked up see ya torm I also called this post out earlier because of the bolded, On February 16 2016 09:13 sicklucker wrote:
because on a somewhat pointless day one if I suspect someone as being mafia and not a powerole I will target them always. I dont even have to be too sure its just always the safe play I actually shouldn't have dropped this point, kus SL was talking about THIS particular D1 being pointless in this post which doesn't really make sense. I'm kinda thinking this was just an excuse to leave his vote on Eden. This is kinda backed up by the fact that SL is now saying he was voting for information but got none since nobody else voted Eden. I do sorta agree with SL about the setup speculation point. It's more beneficial to mafia than town imo, least in a semi-open setup like this. This read progression looks odd to me as well. On February 16 2016 15:57 sicklucker wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2016 15:55 Tictock wrote:
Well, did you get any read off of Trfel and Eden in their exchange?
Who do you think is trying to build themselves towncred?
You and Shape were just on a mafia team together, do you have any insights into his alignment?
Maybe you could try to talk about stuff like that rather than complain that the day is boring. town On February 17 2016 07:10 sicklucker wrote:
shapelogs town. im sure its my only read of the game. and maybe ticktock That first post is pretty confident, so what's making him unsure about me in the next post? Also this Shape read is outa nowhere. Another odd post, so far SL has only given reads on me and Shape, so this is his first mafia read but he doesn't want to push Rsoul kus she can spew herself town? On February 17 2016 10:40 sicklucker wrote:
rsoultin is giving me mafia vibes but I still wouldnt lynch her day one because like me she has a sick ability.
Its called the spew yourself town ability its the best ability to have I'm not at all sure how SL came up with these names. I'd argue that GB, Kush and to a lesser extent Tumble have all been just as lackluster at this point in the game. On February 17 2016 11:45 sicklucker wrote:
ya lets just lynch scott or shining. literally no one else should be up untill they participate There's a pretty good shot SL is scum here, he is playing the path of least resistance on the lynch today and the one scum read he seems to have he doesn't want to push. Neither Kush nor Scott have done much to warrant any townreads, but I also don't see much mafia motivation in their posts either. Kush is not as active as I've seen him in recent games, but that's not necessarily indicative of much. Been a long time since i played with Scott and his posts could come from either alignment. I don't know what to do about GB. On the one hand I think he could actually be town, but on the other I'm very unimpressed with what he has posted thus far. Policy lynch is an option. + Show Spoiler +Just to be clear I'm suggesting this because GB is clearly not making an effort to make himself readable this game, and if he is town I doubt he is going to be terribly helpful anyways So I think this all leaves me wanting to lynch SL, and possibly policy lynch GB.
##Vote: Sicklucker This post...it's in the spoiler most people probably didn't read cause ppl are awesome that way ^^ eh nvm it's actually prob nothing lol @.@ he accepts my interpretation of sl's first posts...for some reason i thought there was more in there than there was Glad you could clear this up for you!
now if you could just clear up your alignment for me, we'll be golden! ^^
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Rsoultin, I'm thinking that you are mafia 
Am I being stupid and wasting my time?
The main reason is that I feel like the way you approached the last 45 ish minutes of Day 1 feels very mafia motivated.
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Yeah i was planning on pushing SL hard today because of the way he was backing out of his blue claim was scummy as fuck
Trefel have you finished your vote analysis. I stuggle to see how scott can be mafia and not be with either of TT or tumble and yes i know your scumreads don't have to all fit together right now and its about finding one at a time but yeah
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As for your townread on Tumble I think you are putting way too much emphasis on meta for a player you have one game to look at. You say his dramatic posting style change probably means he's town, but I have to think he might do that as scum as well. Especially given that Shape was a scummate in his last game but is clearly town here.
I have issues with the way he pushed Shape yesturday. He basically said what I just told you to shape about trying to read him, then said Shape was playing a lot like he did as scum in the last game and voted him. I also thought his vote onto Palmar was pretty suspect since Palmar had been a "Bad lynch" in an earlier post. When the wagon on Shape fell apart he just settled with Palmar, or more accurately he denounced all the other wagons.
On February 18 2016 05:56 Tumblewood wrote:
I can't sleep easy if I see any of the other wagons getting lynched over Palmar. ##vote: Palmar
It doesn't add up.
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That was mostly @ Trfel, but w/e
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Finished Vote Count Analysis
+ Show Spoiler +On February 19 2016 08:47 Trfel wrote:
Simplified Vote Count Analysis
Assumptions:
GlowingBear and Shapelog are both town (claimed blues)
scott31337 is mafia
The purpose of this simplified vote count analysis is to see how much sense scott31337 makes as mafia, judging by the events including and after the start of the wagon on him.
30 Minutes to EoD
Palmar (3): sicklucker, Shapelog, rsoultin
sicklucker (2): Tictock, GlowingBear
GlowingBear (2): scott31337, nooniansoong
scott31337 (1): Trfel
Breshke (1): Palmar
Shapelog (1): Tumblewood
The Shining (1): Eden1892
Not Voting (2): The Shining, Breshke
I have an exam soon, so I'm not going to color in all of the names, but the point is that the three leading wagons are all town. So, mafia probably hasn't had to do much at this point.
15 Minutes to EoD
Palmar (3): sicklucker, Shapelog, rsoultin
sicklucker (2): Tictock, GlowingBear
GlowingBear (2): scott31337, nooniansoong
scott31337 (2): Trfel, Breshke
Breshke (1): Palmar
Shapelog (1): Tumblewood
The Shining (1): Eden1892
Not Voting (1): The Shining
Immediately after this, The Shining votes for Tumblewood, and sicklucker switches to Tumblewood as well, but then switches back to Palmar. Tictock switches his vote to Palmar, which seems suspect. Then GlowingBear votes for nooniansoong.
This suggests that if scott31337 is mafia (going to stop stating this assumption from here on out), The Shining is town, and Tictock is likely mafia.
Rsoultin's vote switch changes the vote count from 4 to 2 to 3 each, with five minutes left to go to the deadline. I don't think that this vote makes rsoultin town, even if scott31337 is scum. After rsoultin switches votes, she doesn't seem so confident in Palmar being town, but then criticizes GlowingBear and The Shining for what they ought to be doing with their votes, despite seemingly not having her own opinion? Note, regardless of scott31337's alignment, rsoultin's posts in the last five minutes seem strange.
Then Eden and Tumblewood and scott31337 come in and vote. And I'm going to be late for my exam so I'll finish this analysis later T.T Sorry about that. To make this a bit simpler for myself, here's the vote count after rsoultin switched. Vote Count ~5 minutes to EoDPalmar (3): sicklucker, Shapelog, Tictock scott31337 (3): Trfel, Breshke, rsoultin GlowingBear (2): scott31337, nooniansoong Breshke (1): Palmar Shapelog (1): Tumblewood The Shining (1): Eden1892 Tumblewood (1): The Shining nooniansoong (1): GlowingBear So if we're assuming that scott31337 is mafia, it's him and two others. Scott31337 wasn't there, so he couldn't vote to save himself. This makes it harder for mafia to defend him, and mafia would be extremely worried about him being lynched here. This is in spoilers, so I don't have to make it pretty, if you're reading this, you're asking for it XD I decided to read from 42 minutes before the lynch, where I started considering lynching scott31337 (the earliest possible start of this wagon). Assumptions are that scott31337 is mafia, and both Shapelog and The Shining are town. On February 18 2016 05:22 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2016 05:20 Eden1892 wrote:
Yo why aren't we lynching Shining? My one-point case was pure gas. Can't whiff. eh could lynch him, too, tbh...but the thing is he's a beast to have in the game after d1 if he's town and i can see him just not having the time here. i'm horribad at catching him when he's scum though so -shrugs- And what about Palmar? Nooniansoong was gone the entire time. If nooniansoong is scum with scott31337, that leaves two of the three scum team (at least) not present, and not able to defend scott31337. This means that it's very possible that scott31337 is scum and there was actually minimal-no scum presence to move the lynch. Tumblewood's aggression towards my suggestion to lynch scott31337 seems noteworthy. The way that rsoultin suddenly swings towards being willing to lynch The Shining, coincidentally right after Eden comes in trying to lynch The Shining, feels a bit opportunistic. Reading through the thread, there's a LOT more influence for the push onto scott31337 in the last 30 minutes of the day than it seems like from the voting thread. And rsoultin also makes plenty of sense with scott31337 as mafia. At this point, I can actually see basically anyone being mafia with scott31337. For example, let's imagine mafia is scott31337, GlowingBear, and rsoultin. Rsoultin was looking for lynches other than scott31337 all day, eventually resorting to a bus with five minutes left. GlowingBear said that he's willing to lynch Palmar, ended up pushing nooniansoong, and completely avoided the scott31337 wagon. With scott31337 being afk, I can potentially see this coming from a mafia team. Rsoultin is fairly bus-happy, and she's in a relatively good spot as mafia, and mafia would probably want someone to bus here, just in case. GlowingBear doesn't even vote until 6 minutes before End of Day, at which point he's mostly committed to the nooniansoong push, but as mafia, he always had a chance to switch votes for the reason being that nooniansoong wasn't going to be lynched and he already said he was fine with Palmar. Basically, this makes sense.
Conclusion: Townreading scott31337 due to the voting patterns at End of Day 1 is incorrect. There are many possibilities that result in End of Day playing out as it did with scott31337 being mafia.
This post does not scumread anyone necessarily, this is largely based on vote timing alone.
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On February 19 2016 13:29 Tictock wrote:As for your townread on Tumble I think you are putting way too much emphasis on meta for a player you have one game to look at. You say his dramatic posting style change probably means he's town, but I have to think he might do that as scum as well. Especially given that Shape was a scummate in his last game but is clearly town here. I have issues with the way he pushed Shape yesturday. He basically said what I just told you to shape about trying to read him, then said Shape was playing a lot like he did as scum in the last game and voted him. I also thought his vote onto Palmar was pretty suspect since Palmar had been a "Bad lynch" in an earlier post. When the wagon on Shape fell apart he just settled with Palmar, or more accurately he denounced all the other wagons. Show nested quote +On February 18 2016 05:56 Tumblewood wrote:
I can't sleep easy if I see any of the other wagons getting lynched over Palmar. ##vote: Palmar It doesn't add up. Tictock, I understand what you're saying, and maybe you're right. I've thought about it a lot, and I still feel that Tumblewood is town. He hasn't posted in a while, I'm going to worry about other things now until either he posts more or it's closer to the deadline, because I have nothing new to say.
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On February 19 2016 13:26 Trfel wrote:Rsoultin, I'm thinking that you are mafia Am I being stupid and wasting my time? The main reason is that I feel like the way you approached the last 45 ish minutes of Day 1 feels very mafia motivated.
well seeing as that's impossible, maybe you should tell me what you don't understand
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On February 19 2016 13:34 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2016 13:26 Trfel wrote:Rsoultin, I'm thinking that you are mafia Am I being stupid and wasting my time? The main reason is that I feel like the way you approached the last 45 ish minutes of Day 1 feels very mafia motivated. well seeing as that's impossible, maybe you should tell me what you don't understand You didn't want to lynch The Shining because he's really good later on.
But you were willing to lynch Palmar?
Then as soon as Eden came back in and said he wanted to lynch The Shining, you suddenly produced a reason to be okay with lynching The Shining. And decided that despite wanting to lynch scott31337 earlier, you didn't want to lynch him because he didn't answer your questions (huh?)
Then you switched from Palmar to scott31337, the main reason seeming to be trusting my read on Palmar? Which led you to talk to nooniansoong and GlowingBear in ALL CAPS telling them that wasted voting is stupid. For GlowingBear, you hinted (while using all caps) that he should vote to save Palmar, without actually telling him to save Palmar? And all this time, you don't have your own reason to townread Palmar?
I really don't get it.
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On February 19 2016 13:38 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2016 13:34 rsoultin wrote:On February 19 2016 13:26 Trfel wrote:Rsoultin, I'm thinking that you are mafia Am I being stupid and wasting my time? The main reason is that I feel like the way you approached the last 45 ish minutes of Day 1 feels very mafia motivated. well seeing as that's impossible, maybe you should tell me what you don't understand You didn't want to lynch The Shining because he's really good later on. But you were willing to lynch Palmar? Then as soon as Eden came back in and said he wanted to lynch The Shining, you suddenly produced a reason to be okay with lynching The Shining. And decided that despite wanting to lynch scott31337 earlier, you didn't want to lynch him because he didn't answer your questions (huh?) Then you switched from Palmar to scott31337, the main reason seeming to be trusting my read on Palmar? Which led you to talk to nooniansoong and GlowingBear in ALL CAPS telling them that wasted voting is stupid. For GlowingBear, you hinted (while using all caps) that he should vote to save Palmar, without actually telling him to save Palmar? And all this time, you don't have your own reason to townread Palmar? I really don't get it.
zzz
you're selectively reading again @.@
i said multiple times that how palmar was treating his breshke read and backing down from me did not look like a town palmar...i,e, scumread vs. the nullish read on shining
and if you'd read my filter carefully at all you'd notice that i still wasn't keen on lynching shining when eden came back until i noticed that he'd pushed for shape to claim and then just disappeared >< for like 45 mins or something just poofed
i'd tried to get scott to talk to me about his other reads and wanted that before lynching him, especially when i knew i was biased from the start against him and i had good reason to believe palmar was scum. yeah, i got cold feet on palmar, primarily cause i keep reading him wrong :/ but i'm not sure how that was scum-motivated? who ostensibly am i supposedly scum with that i'd rather lynch a scum-mate over palmar? lol ><
and as for the ALL CAPS, that was just in response to GB's...also i don't actually remember saying anything to noon so what are you even talking about?
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like, i don't know why you think i need to townread palmar to find it stupid that gb is trying to get people to move off palmar and onto noon -_- who had no one on him
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Okay, so it wasn't nooniansoong, it was The Shining.
It seems like I'll have to keep working on this. Just, if you're mafia and you push your filter over 15 pages so I can't read it, then you're evil.
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On February 19 2016 13:59 Trfel wrote:
Okay, so it wasn't nooniansoong, it was The Shining.
It seems like I'll have to keep working on this. Just, if you're mafia and you push your filter over 15 pages so I can't read it, then you're evil.
well the mafia are demons xP (i think >> i've only been skimming the flavor lol ><)
yeah, weird isn't it, that i don't like the throw-away votes? -gasps-
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Meh, I'm being too lazy. What good is a super careful analysis if you're too lazy to actually read people's filters? XD
It'll just come out exactly like I go into it thinking. Anyway, I'm pretty confident in Tictock being town, because he genuinely feels like he's trying to solve the game and he's been sharing good thoughts (one example being his vote analysis 21 minutes after EoD, which is an unnatural time for mafia to be providing critical thinking). In addition, his posts have felt quite free; looking through Tictock's mafia games, he feels more structured as mafia than I'm seeing in this game.
I think I remember people being suspicious of Tictock, but I'm lazy, why? I get the Palmar vote being suspicious, I guess, but what else?
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EPT
