Alternatively, Town Puppy has fewer than three completed games, and is therefore qualified for a newbie spot.
Newbie Student Mafia XIX
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Eden1892
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Alternatively, Town Puppy has fewer than three completed games, and is therefore qualified for a newbie spot. | ||
Eden1892
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much prefer /in open to /coach but will coach. realized i forgot to actually indicate intentions | ||
Eden1892
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On January 21 2016 22:50 rsoultin wrote: /coach cause lexy said so ^^ Coach me. The cycle must be completed. | ||
Eden1892
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On January 25 2016 10:44 darthfoley wrote: I only asked because I just played in a game where it stayed almost completely civil throughout Palmar is a big softie. He's that old man at the park bench you see twice a week who gives you a little bit of good-natured shit about whatever it is you're talking about, and even on a bad day where you want to bitch him out about it, you don't, because you know he's just ribbin ya and he wants well for you. As for the site in general -- every game is as civil as you make it. Do your part and set a good example, and if you're interacting with most of the people in the thread, they'll clean it up. Worst case you just ignore the grumpykins who can't get their shit together and it still feels like a civil game in the end. Hope you roll town with me this time. | ||
Eden1892
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On January 27 2016 03:21 LoneMeow wrote: _MexicanAlien, did you not receive the confirmation request PM? Lol called the fuck out sson | ||
Eden1892
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On January 27 2016 06:39 Onegu wrote: But serious Shape trying to meta read kush(nooninsong) before he even posts is weird as fuck. What exactly is weird about anything Shapelog did? Specifics please. | ||
Eden1892
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On January 27 2016 11:01 nooniansoong wrote: pepperminttea has a zero percent chance of people male imo "neither does eden tbh" - kush 2014 | ||
Eden1892
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- Shapelog is obviously town, and the first thing I want to do when I get the motivation to read this game in detail (which will be tomorrow, hold me to this and don't let me be lazy) is to read the sequence of people scumreading him early while it was the "in" read to give, because I'm almost positive scum were involved in that. If I actually have to explain this (and if you need it explained, that's okay; newbie game and all), Shapelog's posting was very spontaneous and "error-prone" in the right way. As Onegu put it, "talking about someone's meta before they even post" is in fact a poor use of a townie's time, because you don't need to call attention to the idea that you have a way to read somebody based on meta. Just make the read in either direction when the trigger behavior you're waiting on manifests itself (or doesn't manifest itself when it should). But a post like that is never going to come from mafia. Mafia players don't think to themselves: "You know, I should post that I have a meta read on kush before he says anything. That will make me look more townie and advance my agenda." Because it doesn't. It's empty words. An excited townie, however, who is trying to get discussion started and generate meaningful data for themselves and other players to read, might be overeager and start talking about this tell before it manifests, because it's meaningful to them (even if it doesn't do anything yet). And if you read the rest of Shapelog's posts, eagerness and excitement are pretty reasonable descriptors of his emotional state as he plays. So we can either assume that Shapelog is a bad noob scum player, who also doesn't have anybody on his team to tell him that his early posting isn't doing anything to help, and who also doesn't have a scum coach telling him the same thing... or we can just assume that he is an eager townie, as his posts read. - Onegu is my current top suspect for a few okay-ish reasons: 1. Not recognizing Shapelog as obvious town. He talks about Shapelog's posts being weird, his posting direction as not helping town, blabla... ignores all the evidence pointing to the conclusion I just gave you from only skimming the thread, but then avoids giving a concrete read on Shapelog when the action is all centered on Shapelog during that sequence I mentioned at the beginning of this post (p13-14 I think is the right section, where Pepperminttea posted). I expect better from "tryhard Onegu" since I genuinely view the Shapelog read as trivially simple for an experienced player to make. 2. Unusually rigid policies for what is okay to use/discuss. This one's a little convoluted, but hopefully I'll make it clear. At several points during Onegu's interaction with Shapelog, there's these posts that basically say "You're doing X thing. X thing is A Bad Thing. Don't do X thing." Referring to some aspects of scumhunting that are variably useful: metagame reading (sometimes great, sometimes bad), setup spec discussion (same), self-meta (granted, this one is pretty bad always). And he's not wrong when he says them. Shapelog's attempted use of metagame reading of kush was not very productive, and setup spec posting is pretty bad in this setup (which I'll explain in a bit). And there's even a conflating motivator here -- Onegu is an experienced player in a newbie game, so you could argue he feels an impetus to steer the newbies toward more "proper" scumhunting avenues. But the lack of explanation bothers me a lot, especially given that the things he discusses are variably useful and not clearly always bad. Like he says to stop posting about blues, because it only helps mafia. In this case, it's true: since the mafia know the whole setup, the only thing that can really come from the town discussing the setup is blues accidentally slipping up and making clear that they have extra knowledge of the game state (and thus outing blues to mafia). (Mafia can slip in the same way, but it's hard for townies to distinguish whether the slip is blue or red in nature, and besides, mafia tend to be much more careful about their known information; so it's rare for mafia to slip and much more common for blues to do it, making it bad for town.) ^^ See how easy that explanation was? 3-4 lines. But Onegu doesn't even do that, he just says "this is bad don't do it." It belies the "Onegu is trying to help the newbies get better" explanation, since you would expect an explanation for why something is bad if you're trying to get better by having people tell you something is bad. As such it reads less like "Onegu trying to help the townies" and more like "Onegu trying to jam up potentially useful (from the standpoint of getting town reads) discussion under the guise of being helpful to newbies." - kush already seems several orders of magnitude more invested than he was in Unoriginal, where he was mafia. And he made the point I did about Shapelog, and made it first, while people were trying to twist it into a scummy thing for Shapelog to be eager and talking a lot. Early TR for him. - darthfoley seems much more relaxed and spontaneous than he was in Unoriginal, where he was mafia. He also had a couple of salient points he made that I've forgotten and don't care to look up right now. Early TR here as well. TL;DR: - Shapelog solid town - kush, darth early tr's - Onegu scummy - There's probably a mafia among the "Shapelog is scummy" crowd from p13-14 | ||
Eden1892
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On January 27 2016 16:11 darthfoley wrote: Welcome to the thread Eden Hello! I won't be here too much longer for tonight. But it'd be impolite not to say hi! | ||
Eden1892
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(editor's note: this post turned out not to be very helpful, but I'm leaving it for posterity, so the reason why we won't need to discuss setup much this game is clearly spelled out for anyone with questions about it) Mafia know the whole setup. This means that they will know if we have a doctor or not. Weird nightkills can possibly be explained by medic dodging. Note that this is only useful in the event of a role claim and probably isn't very useful then. If you're a power role, be careful about setup discussion, and ideally say nothing at all. You have extra info about the game state and that may lead you to say something you "shouldn't" know (if you were VT). Obviously counterclaim if you have to do that, but in general, you're probably better off just not talking about it. In point of fact, talking about the setup at all is not very useful. The mafia likely won't do anything too stupid with their fakeclaims (if they even fakeclaim) and they know what they have to play around, and it's not like we can make use of any implications from scum behavior (medic dodging), since the mafia are unlikely to make a demonstrably false fakeclaim. I don't mind that people were trying to glean info out of it before; I think it's probably a townie thing to do. But there's nothing useful in setup speculation this go-round, so I strongly advise against it. | ||
Eden1892
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On January 27 2016 16:36 Onegu wrote: 1. Why does this make me scummy. I am better than you and can make next level reads you cannot. And the fact that you want to call him basically confirmed town at this point is so fucking random. 2. Why is this AI at all. Ill give you a hint it isnt. Why the fuck do I have to be the one to explain things. If they want to take my word for something without putting critical thinking into things thats on them not me. Me just saying things makes them have to think if what I am saying is correct or not. Im not here to hold their hands. I am here to tell them they are newbies. And then find scum. You are going on about me saying things then you go and feel the need to then explain what I already said is correct? Then scum read me for not being helpful enough? Boring. Please let me know when you're ready to drop the tough guy charade and play mafia. | ||
Eden1892
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Goodnight. | ||
Eden1892
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1. He literally responds to my claim that Shapelog is an easy town read with "I'm better than you and capable of making next-level reads you can't make," while not having a read on Shapelog either way. He attempts to leverage some kind of perceived skill advantage to shoot down my opinion, but he gives no meaningful comment on whether he actually disagrees with the opinion or not (calling it "so fucking random" isn't meaningful). It's another angle Onegu appears to want to use to shut down various lines of discussion, but when he doesn't even seem to have a line of discussion he wants to pursue, what good is that for anybody? 2. He essentially says here that he isn't shutting down various lines of discussion to help guide newbies. He just wants to call people bad and then find scum. If you're an astute reader -- indeed, a reader at all -- you will notice that Onegu has only satisfied the "call people bad" half of that. No scum reads -- barely anything that would be considered a read at all. Where you at Onegu? If you're being such a try hard scum killer this game why is it that all I see from you is shouting newbies down and no reads? | ||
Eden1892
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Eden1892
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And you named mex and tea reads just now but said nothing to that effect in the post. If anything you implied mex was scum. Your comments on tea and tumbleweed weren't clearly indicative of any opinion. Do you care to explain these discrepancies? | ||
Eden1892
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On January 28 2016 01:31 Onegu wrote: Trfel 100% scum. Confirmed now. You are welcome. maybe you can be town after all | ||
Eden1892
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I'll catch up from the start in a couple hours. There's an awful lot of directionless posting though. Chief offender seemed to be Trfel (which is why I liked Onegu's confident statement that Trfel is scum) but he's not alone. Peoe please think through a damn point and make sure it's relevant to finding mafia before you post. This site is replete with players who vomit every thought they have into the thread regardless of how useful it is, don't be like that. Thanks. More substantive stuff in a while. | ||
Eden1892
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I think my plan right now is to lynch Trfel instead of Onegu. I think my earlier arguments about Onegu were reasonable, and I'm not all that comfortable giving him a pass right now (although I reserve the right to do a complete 180 on that opinion if Trfel flips scum, as I think that pairing is next to impossible), but he's completely right about Trfel's earlier questioning, and there's also this sequence of posts from him in the last ~2 hours: On January 28 2016 05:48 Trfel wrote: I don't have a read on Tumblewood, to be honest. The only thing that stands out to me is that he seems to be very careful about his posts. A lot of people seem to be suspecting Tumblewood, can someone please remind me why this is? On January 28 2016 06:26 Trfel wrote: Tumblewood, can you share why you are scumreading Shapelog at this point, please? I don't believe you've mentioned this in a while, correct me if I'm wrong. On January 28 2016 06:48 Trfel wrote: No, no, no..... ##unvote ##vote Tumblewood Was going to wait for him to respond, but meh Kinda embarrassing to have a bunch of newbies catch scum and not me, but it is what it is XD Trfel please explain how you went from "not having a read on Tumblewood," to asking him a question clarifying a reason for his scumread, to scumreading him, all in the span of exactly one hour, and with one off-subject post from Tumblewood in-between. ##UNVOTE: Onegu ##VOTE: Trfel I really like the atmosphere of the thread right now. Lots of people seem pretty involved in the game and are being very proactive in pursuing their leads. I'll let you guys chew on this argument and see what you come up with. | ||
Eden1892
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On January 28 2016 08:07 Trfel wrote: EBWOP: Why is Eden1892 scum? I don't care about why I'm town. Also, I really do think that Tumblewood is town, but I would really appreciate him answering my question, since I could be wrong. Where did that come from? You said yourself that you "didn't have an opinion on him" a couple of hours ago. Why do you think he's mafia and why did you say you didn't have an opinion about him? You weren't asking him a question at the time, so it's clear that you weren't saying it to set some kind of a trap for him. | ||
Eden1892
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On January 28 2016 08:11 nooniansoong wrote: the only purpose giving reasons would be to help clear myself as town. eden is not gonna get lynched today. i dont want to give him tips for how to look more townie. you are too funny with these "i called it d1" reads. If I see you bragging about any of these other day 1 reads in the postgame I'm going to remind you of this. | ||
Eden1892
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On January 28 2016 08:21 Trfel wrote: I didn't have an opinion on Tumblewood until I checked his filter more carefully, and then I realized that I was missing some important things. Like what? Be specific. You cited literal none of these "important things" when you voted him. | ||
Eden1892
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On January 28 2016 08:26 Trfel wrote: Of course not, he has to answer my question first. Then he gets to know why he's mafia What a cop out. I hate this. I feel obligated not to press you further on this in the event I'm wrong and you're on to something. But if I'm right and you're full of it, this is just giving you time to stall me out and avoid getting lynched. If you're town you need to make a good faith effort to show me you're not full of it with this line of questioning. I read Tumblewood's filter and felt his suspicions of Shapelog were very consistent and understandable (though I disagree with them). This question looks very do-nothing, like a lot of your questions have been this game. And your flip in those posts I cited is really suspicious to me. I'm trying to act in good faith and not screw up your play if you are town. Meet me halfway and give me a reason to believe you're not just hot air with this. | ||
Eden1892
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Just remove 'experienced' and read it again, it'll make sense. Took me a sec too when you asked. | ||
Eden1892
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On January 28 2016 08:45 Trfel wrote: Eden, I'm trying very hard to not direct the thread. It's a newbie game, I feel like the new players should lead it. Basically, I don't feel that Tumblewood actually cares about his scumreads. His filter seems to be contributing, but while it is contributing, it doesn't seem like he's scumhunting. He's always scumreading the top suspects, but not talking about them, either, which is probably the biggest example of this. I'm sympathetic to the idea that you don't want to dominate discussion in a newbie game, but I don't feel your play is emblematic of that concern. It looks more like you're asking questions to ask them -- just reacting to the thread for its own sake instead of having a particular direction or angle that you care about pursuing. If you were just trying not to take over discussion and crowd out the new guys, I think you would probably limit the number of things you attempt to respond to, as if to say "I'll cover this and this, the newbies can handle this line so I'll give them a shot at it". But that's not what happened -- you've asked a lot of people a lot of things and then just not followed through on many of them at all. But ok, let's say that you were doing what you said you were doing. (It'd be hard to have a meaningful conversation otherwise, I suppose...) What did that lead you to conclude about the new guys? Which new players do you feel were more of the "leaders" of the town and why? Who stood out among the newer guys (aside from Tumblewood, which you are already explaining now) as having not done this? I can still sorta buy that you were hanging back more to let the new guys do some work, but you gotta show me some proof that you're still invested. As for Tumblewood... - You say his filter is "contributing but not scumhunting." If you think he's mafia how do you think that he's contributing to the thread? Is meaningful contribution to the thread not the hallmark of town play? - I will allow you not to answer this question if it would blow up your attempt to question Tumblewood too much. But suffice to say that I disagree with you when you say that he's "always scumreading the top suspects but not talking about them." On an (admittedly cursory) read of his filter he seems to be explaining his scumreads to a reasonable extent whenever he's talking about them. Can you please cite examples to the contrary if it won't screw up your questioning too much to elaborate? | ||
Eden1892
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That's gonna be my last post for today. I'm worried that this game might damage my productivity at work tomorrow though. might damage my productivity might | ||
Eden1892
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On January 28 2016 10:46 nooniansoong wrote: my point is that if you accept that as an acceptable reason to scumread someone, tumbleweed's reads make perfect sense. Bingo. And not only that, I don't even see how Tumblewood's opinions about Shapelog and darthfoley are inconsistent. He pointed out early that both players made self-references to their not being mafia and had them as two of his top three suspects. His opinions of the two players diverge as the game goes on, which makes sense given that they're saying and doing different things. I'm biased and open to being talked down, but I read Trfel's case and came away feeling like I'd cornered him on his apparent flip-flop on his read on Tumblewood, and that he forced this case where it wasn't really there to look like he sincerely believed he had something there. I'm still fine lynching Trfel. Keeping my vote in place. Also okay with this wagon on Jesus. kush's point on Jesus is okay, darth's emergent case on Jesus is pretty strong for day 1, both of those players are strong town to me, and both players attacked on completely different axes from the other. Would sheep 10/10, will switch vote to push this wagon over the top if Trfel isn't going or some other wagon looks poised to overtake both. EBWOthreadrefresh: This Ikidomari guy is basically lock scum, we can lynch him too. Stealing my dude Koshi's styling and heuristic for part of this. PMT is one of my top town reads, either that or very good mafia, and I'm being taken for a ride, but based on their lack of forum experience, I'd say PMT is just good town. literally "this guy is town, either that or mafia," breaking the tie on an arbitrary factor (alleged lack of forum experience) which has no impact on alignment Tumbleweed looks like this is his first game, or one of his first, went very pro-active early, maybe a bit over-aggressive on the scum calls, but started making more town reads later on. I don't know, comes off as bad town trying too hard, or bad mafia to me, i'm not experienced enough to tell the difference. If I had to give a solid answer, I'd say he's bad town who changed his mind a bit too often in an attempt to get reactions out of people, falling over himself trying to avoid being mis-lynched. again with the "this guy is town, either that or mafia" read, but this time with a dose of newbie johns to excuse himself from not committing to one stance or the other. Everyone go read the stickied analysis by Ver on XXX Mafia and then scroll for the part where he dissects how this one new player does the exact same thing in that game as mafia. You'll see it and you'll read this and thank me. Posts he has made haven't been very constructive at all. He's coming off as extremely arrogant, enough so that it's got to be some sort of act, because there's no way someone's going to say "I am a Mafia Grandmaster", "speak to me with respect, I deserve it, i am above you" unless they're putting it on, and I mean, look at that name. Only constructive information he's given to town is calling out Eden for supposedly falling for a simple strat. My read is that jesus is an unhelpful town, who has annoying posts to read- 'sick meme' 'residentsleeper' Jesus, why are you putting such a big target on your back for someone to attack you? what do you gain? how is this constructive Ikidomari? you go on to say that I'm town and Shapelog (the object of the strategy in question) isn't necessarily scum so how is this helping anybody? and what good is the question to Jesus there anyway? is that going to help you read him? because neither alignment is incentivized to make themselves more prone to being attacked so I'm not sure how this does... Not enough information on the guy [Kuragari] to make a proper judgement. Slightly scummy, not enough to vote on. no use to this at all. doesn't explain how Kuragari is particularly scummy, says he doesn't have enough info for proper judgment, throws a scumread out anyway. Maybe this is a sick town play and we're going to get rid of mafia on the first night, but I think, judging from his experience, Trfel is an experienced mafia player, and is scum trying to get a townie lynched on day 1. yet another "this guy is town, either that or mafia" read, arbitrarily tiebroken toward Trfel being mafia based on experience. I don't think he's [Onegu is] scum enough to vote, but definitely enough to keep my eye on. he at least commits to Onegu being scum, but again with the "suspicious but not enough to vote on" conclusions... but then he also thinks Trfel is scum? and even says he agrees with Onegu's read on Trfel. How do you have both of them as scum, Ikidomari? My top 3 for each Scum: Onegu, JesusIncarnate, Tfel Town: PMT, Darth, Alur Keep a close eye on: Shape, Tumble, Kuragari - so now Jesus became a top 3 scum read after calling Jesus "unhelpful town" in the actual read on Jesus - he has Onegu as "keep my eye on" but then puts him in scum instead of the literal reads group titled "keep a close eye on" and he doesn't list me and kush/noon as town reads despite calling us these. ^^i bring this up even though it's NAI in and of itself, because these arbitrary designations give him a clean "three town three scum three watch-out" list of reads; too clean to me. It just looks inorganic that he has an even split of reads, that's just not how reads naturally evolve normally. It looks more like a manufactured list to me. also there's this: from here on out my posts are going to be shorter, I'm getting a headache going over everything, this is my own fault for being so inactive at the start, there's so much content to wrap my head around. excuses for not being caught up. this might as well read "disregard what I'm saying and ignore my reads," he's literally giving us multiple reasons (inactivity/falling behind, struggling to read the thread thoroughly) for discrediting his reads. what townie does this? if you just don't have anything to add then you don't post anything or post what you do have to add (strong town reads if nothing else). newbie scum do this all the time, they post a large post of reads that looks involved and invested in the game, but then seed all kinds of backdoors to escape committing to those reads with various excuses and waffling in the reads themselves. this is basically a portrait of what new scum looks like ##UNVOTE ##VOTE: Ikidomari | ||
Eden1892
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On January 28 2016 14:35 Ikidomari wrote: Whoops, My bad. I'm going to vote on my top scum / useless town read at the moment, I'm open to changing this if people sway my opinion. ##Vote JesusIncarnate oh my goodness it's actual literal magic christmasland. is it really this easy? lock for scum | ||
Eden1892
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then when the wagons are showing up to be Trfel (actual scum) or Jesus (unhelpful town) drops a vote to push the wagon on his town read ahead of his scum read | ||
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My read is that jesus is an unhelpful town, who has annoying posts to read- 'sick meme' 'residentsleeper' Maybe this is a sick town play and we're going to get rid of mafia on the first night, but I think, judging from his experience, Trfel is an experienced mafia player, and is scum trying to get a townie lynched on day 1. Whoops, My bad. I'm going to vote on my top scum / useless town read at the moment, I'm open to changing this if people sway my opinion. ##Vote JesusIncarnate | ||
Eden1892
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I'll humor that your post took a while and you changed your mind as a result, Iki. After all, I pretty rapidly changed course on who I wanted to lynch while I was typing my post But you got to explain to me what changed your mind. It's a bit odd to me that you claim you did, because you didn't make much mention of Jesus in-between your read on him and your list of reads. And you didn't put it back in at the end... or in the follow-up post where you voted for him... So what changed your mind about Jesus? Please be as specific as you can. | ||
Eden1892
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On January 28 2016 15:25 Ikidomari wrote: Sure. It's his attitude. I admit I'm biased because I dislike the way he types, but I couldn't stop thinking about motivations as to why he'd be so arrogant, and how that arrogance could be used to his advantage. The only logical reason that I could see someone would draw so much attention to themselves is so that, if they were mafia, people would think "Man, there's no way mafia would be stupid enough to draw that much attention to themselves, he must be town" It seems suspicious as hell to me, and I can't think of a good reason a town player would paint themselves as a target. His posting style reminds me of an anonymous poster on 4chan, not of a TL user looking to solve a puzzle. Source: I spend far too much time on both websites. Why would a mafia want to paint a target on their back if a townie wouldn't want to paint a target on their back? | ||
Eden1892
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I got work allllll day tomorrow, will hopefully be able to check in before deadline and read. I don't think we should lynch JesusIncarnate today. Too many people are willing to do it for reasons that don't really make him scummy with nobody really trying to stop it (except I guess me). I'm still down for a Trfel lynch as a backup plan. And if all that goes to hell I'm 99% sheeping kush. | ||
Eden1892
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Iki, why would a mafia want to paint a target on their backs if a townie wouldn't want to do so? | ||
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This guy's probably not mafia. ##UNVOTE Iki, + Show Spoiler + That's kind of alright logic, but it presupposes that if attacked, the mafia can hold off the attack and get townread. Neither side wants to get lynched, obviously, but one side actively cares about not being lynched (mafia) while the other primarily cares about lynching mafia (town). Painting a target on one's own back notably can serve a town purpose (baiting scum into pushing a bad case on them, a kind of reaction test), but it can't really serve a mafia purpose (you would then have to explain how you were baiting scum and make a case on people, or just get mislynched -- with people heavily scrutinizing your post for errors or reasons to lynch you). In essence I think you have it backwards. Townies have some motivation to bait attacks on themselves, since they're trying to find mafia, not necessarily survive. Mafia, on the other hand, win only by surviving and thus have next to no incentive to bait attacks on themselves. But I believe you sincerely believe what you say, and if I believe this, then your explanation makes sense to me from your POV. | ||
Eden1892
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I think I'm just gonna vote for Iki after all. I don't think I want Trfel to go today. Still not feeling this Jesus train -- still too many people on him for things that don't make him mafia to make me comfortable with it. Really nothing changed to make me think that Iki couldn't be mafia. Might be letting him off the hook too easily, idk. I reread my case and I feel like Iki didn't really rebut what I was saying, so probably I should just lynch him. ##VOTE: Ikidomari I feel like Onegu also hasn't done anything in a hot minute. That's probably a good reason to kill him too. | ||
Eden1892
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If this guy flips town then slap all the dummies voting him because of a "slip" that for sure wasn't one (probably) But those reads make no sense with the game state. His scum reads are inconsistent as a team (me and Iki are never ever partners) and the reasoning on them is shoddy and just borrowed from what other people are saying. So are the town reads. The whole thing is just right in line with popular town sentiments with nothing firm said either way (it's almost all leans and nothing committed). I like Iki the best because I'm pretty confident in my initial impression of his posting. But this Kura guy is a fine lynch too based on those reads. | ||
Eden1892
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I just remember you and kush havin decent but not absolutrly correct reasons to kill him, and the. After that some suspicious people jumped on it, and it made me think it was a bad lynch | ||
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On January 29 2016 05:18 Alur wrote: Surprised you wouldn't vote for Jesus, since it seems like the most viable strategy for you to not get lynched. Since he's your primary competition, lynchwise. Sigh don't tell him this I was looking forward to using this data point without him being conscious of t and changing his behavior | ||
Eden1892
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I think a lot of that was in reaction to Ikidomari if that helps. Literally jumping on basically for just not liking Jesus's posting style. That kind of behavior seems to me to be vintage mafia finding an excuse to hop on a town wagon that's gaining steam. | ||
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On January 29 2016 05:27 Kuragari42 wrote: A townie lynch v. a townie lynch.. Jesus claims that he is some super-mafia-guru so I figure out of the two of us, town would benefit more from him being alive. Hold up you just said Jesus was a complete unknown to you. Now you're saying he's town? And not just that but that because he says he's good at mafia (with zero display of that in game to back it up), you would rather die yourself than lynch him even though you're confirmed town to yourself??? | ||
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On January 29 2016 04:52 Kuragari42 wrote: Continued reads... Slight Scum: Ikidomari - His posts seem contorted and I tend to find lynch begging a scum (or at the very least anti-town) thing to do. This also fits in with my slight scum read on Eden if Shape's recent lines of post are correct. Town Lean: Mexican, noon, Onegu. Scum Lean: Alur. I honestly have no clue: Jesus. | ||
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VOTE: Kuragari42 | ||
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That was virtually a double scum claim all in one. I think. The only motivator that makes any sense there is saving Jesus the mafia PR. Especially when he has no prior opinion on Jesus... Looks like keeping his options open for how to read a buddy | ||
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No such analogue exists in mafia. We operate on probabilities and are solely guided by the truth -- we have no ulterior motivations to punish people for its own sake. There is no reason to presume innocence by default in this game. Citing that phrase is tantamount to handwaving needing a reason to call someone town. | ||
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Lesson for future games: If you are town, you should always vote your counter wagon unless the counter wagon is (somehow) confirmed town. It doesn't matter whether or not Jesus is town or mafia here. Kura doesn't know this. He only knows that he himself is town -- so he should always try to lynch his counter wagon, since the counter wagon isn't known to be town. Anyway I'm probably killing Iki tomorrow, as of now. I'm not worried about the mislynch -- sucks that we didn hit mafia, but we accomplished all our other goals for day 1. Good environment lots of productive disscussion. | ||
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Better to look at shady switches. | ||
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Trfel why do you need my permission to speak to me? Just talk. What is it you want? | ||
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Focus on what matters. Don't say everything that pops into your head. It's not all gonna be useful. | ||
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On January 29 2016 07:19 Trfel wrote: Eden, I really don't get why you're scumreading Ikidaromi. I feel that your case demonstrated some logical flaws in his play, but I don't know why this makes him mafia. Can you please explain this again? No. What parts didn't you understand? That post is long and I have no time right now to regurgitate it. Ask me specific questions that don't have open ended answers. | ||
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On January 29 2016 08:11 Shapelog wrote: I am half way done with mine. I shall not look at the thread (or at least this page) till i post mine, to not get biased. @Kush, You fucking saw what mafia did the last two mafia games i played in. They start by telling me not to spam or do shit then become the town leaders and procide to win the game with no votes on them passed d2. Trust me, I have learn not to listen to that kinda of post because it always ends up with me accidentally pushing the god damm mafia agenda for the mafia. If Eden is town, then i take it into consideration post game. no really, a large subset of your posts are obnoxious do-nothing posts that make it that much harder for me to invest the level of effort in this game that I know I should be bringing | ||
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That was the type of post I want to see from you going forward. Constructive, high-effort, on-topic. Do more of that. it's good. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On August 26 2010 13:07 Ver wrote: Day 1 Analysis: Basically I'll point out the posts that are great for analysis, either finding reds or greens. In doing analysis most posts will be worthless, it's the gems you want to search for unless you want to do a full analysis profile on that person (dragging up all their posts and looking in context for patterns). That unfortunately takes a lot of time and thus can only be done on a few people at a time. Thus for those stretched on time, it's much easier to look for mistakes/bad posts and then do a thorough inspection of said person. That's how I'll present the red analysis. Misder : Here is a great example of a mafia slipping up very obviously in day 1. These are two posts full of flagrant errors. This is the first easy mafia catch the town could've had; let's go through it: -Note the multiple apologies, excuses, the specific mention that he is still learning, and overall meek tone. Newer mafia players will try to emphasize their inexperience as a way of overcompensating. Think about this from the angle of being a townie: why would you want to say all this? What's the point in painting yourself to be some noob who is useless and shouldn't be listened to? If you want to be of use to the town, apologizing a bunch and acting all sorry for doing nothing wrong is hardly going to make yourself listened to. In fact, it will make people ignore you instead. Someone who can't even convince themself is hardly going to convince anyone else. That would be great for a mafia who wants to hide though, wouldn't it? On that angle it makes perfect sense from the mafia's perspective. You want to find reasons that make you look less suspicious without looking like you are trying too hard to do so. See how Misder isn't even suspicious before this but he's trying to make himself look less suspicious. That's entirely mafia rationale. A townie might want to defend himself if someone accuses him, but only a mafia feels inherently guilty and has a need, perhaps even a desire to defend himself before he's even a blip on anyone's radar. It's a very common pattern that I've seen many, many times. [[Redacted from post; paragraph was a separate argument against Misder that is irrelevant to Ikidomari.]] -Lastly, dock another point against Misder for his extremely mild statements about his suspicions and refusal to vote. Why would voting be impulsive? Bolded for relevance. This is a very common tell for newer mafia players that's been generally true since the dawn of online mafia. You're welcome to disagree that these behaviors make him more likely than null to be mafia, or to think that this behavior is NAI, or what have you, but your opinion flies in the face of actual years of recorded evidence to the contrary. In light of that, Trfel, I still do not understand what you struggle to see in my case, and I certainly do not understand why you felt the need to submit your concern with my case as this apparent grand enigma that makes you unable to understand what I'm doing this game. Such massive overstating of a simple difference of opinion as you "not being able to understand where [I'm] coming from this game," especially when I cite my publicly-viewable source of my tell for you to read, makes me suspicious of you -- you just look like you're trying to paint my argument as this completely unreasonable push and discredit my play this game for it, which sits very poorly with me. | ||
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I don't think I would lynch Ikidomari at this point. The new reads list really cleaned up a lot of issues I had, but it didn't seem forced or anything. Also liked the discussion with noon. I think I would not lynch these people at this point: PepperMintTea Alur darthfoley Ikidomari _MexicanAlien Shapelog I would consider lynching these people, but would need a good reason: nooniansoong And I think these people are good lynches right now: Tumblewood JesusIncarnate Trfel Onegu Notably, I would not lynch Trfel and Onegu, and think Trfel would be a better lynch than Onegu. Onegu wasn't doing much to be very "try-hard" or useful before his oog circumstances took over, and those two can't be mafia together. noon hasn't really done all that much lately and it's starting to bother me a bit. he's still probably town, but I moved him out of my 'unlynchable' pile. | ||
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On January 30 2016 05:01 Onegu wrote: Oh eden is scum. I am allowed to use meta you are not. He has a small filter. Go look at his town games when he was killed and the size of his filter then look at his scum games when he dies and the size of his filter. This is a guy who can make a 40 page filter in a mini as town but doesnt ever go past 10 pages as scum. You should probably look at games actually played after July 2015 when you use a metagame argument. | ||
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May 2015. This is actually a great example of how not to use meta. Thanks for showing the newbies how it's not done. | ||
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This also means Trfel is town, which is fine, because I was starting to get some cognitive dissonance feels reading Trfel's most recent posts. This picture makes a lot more sense. | ||
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On January 30 2016 05:11 Onegu wrote: Links I only use the database Stop being lazy mr "tryhard" | ||
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On January 30 2016 05:16 Onegu wrote: If you have a actual counter to my point on meta then post the links so people can see them. Nah fuck you, burden of proof is on you to prove that I'm contradicting relevant meta and you haven't proven shit. Multiple people in this game were in the only relevant sample (Unoriginal Mini) and have already vouched for me. Which you'd know if you read the game or did anything besides yell at people to stop trying to be productive in their own ways. | ||
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But not this scummy fraud. You do your own work | ||
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On January 30 2016 05:24 Onegu wrote: Also what is the point when they are doing things that will lead to wrong conclusions... You don't know that. People approach mafia in a lot of different ways. Maybe some people find doing VCA during night 1 useful. I know I did when we ran a train on the scumteam in Unoriginal Mini (with apologies to darth and kush). We cleared several people off of it. Obviously it's different when we catch scum d1, but it's still potentially very useful. Just because you don't think it is doesn't mean it never can be. Besides, even if it would lead them to wrong conclusions, we can still townread them for their efforts even if they're wrong. That's the core of what bothers me with your attitude this game. I feel like I could easily have gotten to the townreads that I did earlier if you would have just shut the fuck up and let the newbies do their thing. Yeah maybe they end up suspecting people who flip town. So what? They put out the effort that proves they're town in the process of doing it. Then the veteran town players can use that and solve the game, and show the newbies how it goes -- how their efforts got them townread, how their ideas weren't on the right track, and how the game got solved as a result. But no, we can't do that, because The Almighty Onegu has decreed that every method, every process that could be used to find scum, that TAO himself has not yet personally used to success as town, is bad and unusable. TAO of course proceeds to do jack shit for the entire game to make up for derailing others' attempts (however flawed they might have been) to solve the game. You are scum. | ||
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On January 30 2016 05:27 Onegu wrote: FYI there wasnt going to be a troll onegu this game but eden is bringing him out... Lol ok. You were about as far away from "tryhard" as can be. Now you're going to excuse yourself from living up to your own not-even-lofty, but apparently still too high, standards. | ||
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On January 30 2016 05:26 Onegu wrote: His first scum read on me. Then the follow up now. And now I dont think the meta argument is broken completely. Literal actual OMGUS + a horrible, demonstrably false meta argument. Do you even have other reads? Trfel is now null, great. Non-read. What else? Preferably something actually meaningful. | ||
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On January 30 2016 05:48 Trfel wrote: Eden1892, do you really think that Onegu would push you here as mafia? I kind of feel like Onegu, as mafia, wouldn't do something irrational like this or push "wildly". I don't feel like you're an easy target for mafia to push, so I'm not sure what Onegu's aim as mafia would be. It's not smart for him to do that as mafia, but he's apparently elected to try, so I'm going to punish his mistake accordingly. | ||
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On January 30 2016 05:52 Trfel wrote: I mean, I see why the rest of his play is mafia motivated and why it might come from mafia. I'm just having trouble with this part... Onegu is a cocky shit who thinks he's better than me. Easy. He told us that himself earlier in the game. I admit that it's possible that I'm not being objective about it, because I really want to take him down a peg for being a dick this game, but I think that's a perfectly reasonable explanation. | ||
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On January 30 2016 02:50 Eden1892 wrote: Possible he just saw that it did him no favors to state his reads so passively and gave us the same thing with more definition. Or that he read new material and became more confident in his results. idk. I don't think I would lynch Ikidomari at this point. The new reads list really cleaned up a lot of issues I had, but it didn't seem forced or anything. Also liked the discussion with noon. I think I would not lynch these people at this point: PepperMintTea Alur darthfoley Ikidomari _MexicanAlien Shapelog I would consider lynching these people, but would need a good reason: nooniansoong And I think these people are good lynches right now: Tumblewood JesusIncarnate Trfel Onegu Notably, I would not lynch Trfel and Onegu, and think Trfel would be a better lynch than Onegu. Onegu wasn't doing much to be very "try-hard" or useful before his oog circumstances took over, and those two can't be mafia together. noon hasn't really done all that much lately and it's starting to bother me a bit. he's still probably town, but I moved him out of my 'unlynchable' pile. Updating at EON: Don't lynch: PMT Alur foley Iki Mex Shape Don't lynch without good reason: noonkush Trfel Get these guys: Onegu Onegu Onegu Jesus Onegu Onegu Tumblewood Onegu | ||
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Unless they shot Alur. In which case fuck you dude. But probably God bless you | ||
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On January 30 2016 06:02 darthfoley wrote: Yea i'm so i'm vigi. Shot Onegu. Feel free to cc me motherfuckers. Also fuck Thank You Based God I would have probably not claimed this, fwiw, unless the info mattered. | ||
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I'm a bit skeptical about this roleblock claim. I don't know how reasonable it is to be suspicious of kush for this though. Basically, knowing there was a vig, and knowing the mafia know there was a vig, they had three possible roles to play around: 1. the vig (of course) 2. the veteran 3. the doctor It's plausible to roleblock somebody to play around a vigilante, which is the main reason why I don't think the claim is too weird. I don't know why kush though. But when you consider that they would also know about a protective role, wouldn't it make more sense to use the roleblock on that instead of trying to roleblock to maybe protect someone? Like I can't imagine using the roleblocker to protect Jesus from vig!Kush. The number of things you'd have to have lined up to make that a reasonable play are a bit too high for me. 1. you'd have to have a good read on kush being the vig. I don't see how you would do that. Maybe reading kush lying low as a blue makes sense, but specifically vig doesn't really make sense to me. 2. you'd have to have a good read on kush wanting to shoot Jesus. if you read him as vig I guess that's safe. 3. Jesus would also have to be mafia. obviously, but still worth noting. That's just a lot of moving parts. I don't think that's what did it. And obviously, since they shot Alur, they weren't playing around a veteran. So that leaves a doc. I don't remember kush being adamant about Alur being town... far from it, kush suggested Alur could be mafia at a couple of points. I guess if you just are trying to hit the doc at random then kush is an ok target for lying low... but then that raises another question. If they reasonably thought kush was doc, why not shoot kush? That leaves me with four possible explanations: 1. Mafia thought kush was the vig and roleblocked him to protect Jesus. This means Jesus is mafia and the mafia also didn't feel the need to play around a veteran. Lots of parts here but not impossible. 2. Mafia thought kush was the doc and roleblocked him to prevent him from protecting someone. This could be the case I guess, but it makes very little sense because I would basically always shoot the doc n1 if I had a good read on him. 3. Mafia didn't really think kush was anything and just roleblocked him. This is clearly suboptimal mafia play: if there's a vet in the game, you rb your kill if you don't think anyone else is a blue, and if there's a doc in the game and you don't think it's kush, you rb someone else to try to hit the doc. 4. kush is fakeclaiming rb. (*: Obviously claiming roleblocked doesn't confirm you town, and is NAI, but sometimes townies take an illogical stance on the roleblock and incorrectly (from a process standpoint) confirm a townie to be town. Why risk that if you don't really have a lead on a blue?) So basically, either kush is mafia or Jesus is. Because kush's rb claim can only be genuine from the standpoint where the mafia think kush is the vig, and they used the rb to protect Jesus from kush. I'd have to go look and see if Jesus is the one. kush did seem to be mostly on Jesus. | ||
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JesusIncarnate Tumblewood Ikidomari Especially Jesus, as kush had a quality want to lynch Jesus all game, but Tumblewood and Ikidomari were both in his lists from braglists 1.1 onward. Think it's gotta be Jesus or Tumblewood. I also just don't think kush is mafia, fakeclaiming rb'd doesn't do anything. | ||
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I think I get you on Trfel but if the rb incriminates Jesus then I don't really know why we wouldn't kill him. | ||
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On January 30 2016 08:38 nooniansoong wrote: we can, but killing trfel would be funner. You're not wrong and I AM about the fun. I'll think about it. Got FNM coming up. | ||
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On January 31 2016 02:30 Trfel wrote: I think that it's much easier for scum to hard-push someone than soft-push them. I know that this is true for me, anyway. I feel like Eden would hard-push Onegu there because it's something that's easy to do and makes himself look active, and also to influence the vigilante to shoot Onegu. The big thing to me is the reaction after Onegu died, which I'm really having a hard time understanding from town. Basically: "I have a scumread on Onegu, he's 100% scum! I could be just biased though, because I'm really biased, but Onegu is scum anyway!" "YOU SHOT ONEGU! YOU'RE THE BEST!!!" instead of.... I'm biased, why did you sheep me and shoot Onegu? Which is what I'd expect from town who was just hard-pushing someone and they got shot N1. I guess I also don't see why this can't come from mafia!Eden. It's not a difficult thing for mafia to do, and it's at least somewhat aligned with mafia motivation (I'd say very, but it's subjective I suppose). This is really backwards and perplexing to me. If I thought Onegu is really likely to be scum, even acknowledging my biases, why would I complain that someone sheeped me and shot him? How does it make sense in your head for someone who is hard-pushing a scumread to be disappointed and questioning a confirmed town vigilante for shooting a scumread? Of course a townie is excited his scumread got shot. Even if that read was wrong, it means you don't have to waste the day campaigning against a townie and spending a lot of effort convincing people to lynch them. And when you add in that Onegu was a toxic presence in the thread, telling everybody to stop doing things and that he was so much better than everyone (while also not doing much constructive posting himself), of course I was happy he bit it. Like this is just so fundamentally off-base. So many of your claims about how town should behave are backwards and alien to me. I'm gonna have to go read your other games to see where this is coming from I guess. I just don't get how you come to any of the conclusions you do about this game. | ||
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On January 31 2016 03:28 Trfel wrote: This is getting complicated. I'm going to get lunch, I'll figure the rest of this out eventually. I looked through JesusIncarnate's filter, but I just don't see him being mafia. I don't really think that the roleblock on nooniansoong means much now that I've thought about it more. There are too many potential flaws with that analysis. 1. Mafia doesn't always do the optimal play, for a wide variety of reasons 2. Even if mafia is trying to do the optimal play, they can see things differently than I/we do, this is a game of opinions 3. Other factors to consider (this basically is part of #2, but whatever) So just going with my read on JesusIncarnate, he's likely town. Which leaves three mafia in Eden1892, Ikidomari, PepperMintTea, and Tumblewood. Ikidomari was looking really scummy to me, but I think I need more time to think about it and read him correctly. I know that this is unflipped association, but Eden1892 and Ikidomari make more sense together as mafia than either of them individually (I have a bit harder time seeing either of them as mafia individually). This POE indicates that they are both mafia, but POE is bad and I'm bad, so I really need to think more about this and figure things out. It's possible it doesn't mean much, but I think you're going to be hard-pressed to explain the alternative circumstances, which leaves my conclusion as the conclusion by default. - Even if mafia doesn't always do optimal plays or sees things differently, it's hard to justify roleblocking someone that's not their kill if they think a vet is in the game, unless they think that someone is the vig and going to shoot mafia. - Even if mafia blablabla, it's hard to justify roleblocking someone that's not their kill if they think that person they're roleblocking is the doctor, since you would just shoot the doctor. Still basically just leaves you with the world where they thought kush was vig. @kush -- why do you keep asking about Jesus being replaced? It seems pretty reasonable to me just to kill them and not worry about it. (unless you're angle-shooting for modkill Jesus lynch Trfel which makes sense) | ||
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I can't figure out what to do with Trfel. Don't have time now to go reread old games of his, and even after I said that about his thought process, I'm not even sure how much it matters (and thus whether that's even a good use of limited time). I think I'm still generally ok with where we're at. Slightly annoying that I'm ending up in various POE lists, but understandable. Mainly the fact that the other clear townies' POE lists are converging makes me pretty confident in where we are. | ||
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On January 31 2016 05:57 Shapelog wrote: Here you go again doing to me what you did to Onegu. ##:Unvote ##Vote: Eden1892 Idk even know if you are the best lynch for today. But you just practically earned my vote with that. i don't care although i would say i'm not doing nearly the same thing to you that i did to onegu. there's no way you're mafia, i'm just not wasting effort on a long-winded case i know is incorrect. inefficient use of time | ||
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I hate so many things he's said this game. Like multiple times I've read his posts and just not understood what he's getting at fundamentally. But he seems like he really believes it and just the tone of how he posts feels townie to me. Idk how to explain it. You clearly suspect him, do you just not think he's being sincere? Or that his take on everything in the game is just scummy? | ||
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My gut is telling me Trfel is town somehow. I feel like I'm just talking to someone with a really really different approach to the whole game and it's screwing with my read on him. Just the effort level and nuance in his posting should be enough to clear him probably. Tbh if I just assume the lots of questions with little apparent direction thing is just a play style thing, I don't really know why I scum read him. I think I'm gonna have to step back from the game a bit and think. Things aren't clearly coming together like they normally do when I'm on the right track. Will try to get back tonight. Oh and Trfel - Eden is fine. The numbers wouldn't even be there if someone didn't already register that handle | ||
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On January 31 2016 07:53 Trfel wrote: Eden, are you busy? Quite - I'm at work waiting to be sat lol. AMA and I'll answer when I get a bit of time | ||
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I tried the same with Iki but for some reason was convinced it was dumb. Shrug. I will try to get some progress made later tonight. I think kush probably has the right idea in just letting Jesus get modkilled and trying to double lynch. Don't think Trfel should be the other hit though. Probably Iki, I'm starting to think I just went full retard again like I did last game with darth. | ||
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I don't even know who we are lynching yet but it's not Trfel. Period. | ||
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On January 31 2016 15:25 nooniansoong wrote: That megapost? You're wrong. Look at his last scum game. i'll have a look. brb | ||
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On January 31 2016 15:45 darthfoley wrote: I'm personally offended that you have Shapelog as more of a town read than me given that i'm the vigilante aka blue role lol gr8 pl8s m8 i r8 8/8 | ||
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I am curious about one thing though. Trfel: On January 28 2016 08:45 Trfel wrote: Eden, I'm trying very hard to not direct the thread. It's a newbie game, I feel like the new players should lead it. Basically, I don't feel that Tumblewood actually cares about his scumreads. His filter seems to be contributing, but while it is contributing, it doesn't seem like he's scumhunting. He's always scumreading the top suspects, but not talking about them, either, which is probably the biggest example of this. Why are you arguing that I'm mafia for not directing the thread, when you yourself said that you felt you shouldn't be directing it yourself? It would seem to me that you would believe you're town, in which case you've already seen a reason why someone would not want to direct the thread as town. I proceed to give you my own reason for not being as directing as maybe I normally would be (which isn't even fully true anyway -- my style as town these days is decidedly not directing the town, unless I have something really good and I think that I need to step up and take control to get that something going), but then you scumread me for not being directing. This strikes me as inconsistent. | ||
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##VOTE: Ikidomari Not comfortable enough with lynching Trfel. Jesus likely to be modkilled, or replaced, so Iki is the best choice. Pretty sure all my d1 arguments basically still apply and that I let Iki go for no reason. | ||
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On February 01 2016 03:48 Trfel wrote: Because of your role pm and because of his role pm. The burden of proof is on you. Why couldn't you be on the same team as Ikidomari? Once you present a reason, I'll consider if it's valid; at the moment I don't know of any valid reasons. Weird mine says vt so idk what you mean?????????? And no it isn't. Trflol pls. Why do you have us on a team together? | ||
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On February 01 2016 04:03 Trfel wrote: I dislike unflipped association, but I remember that my cursory glance told me that you (Eden) only make sense as mafia if Ikidomari is, reason being that I don't see you going back and forth so many times over town. have you EVER seen me play town before? like literal last game when the exact same thing happened with mafia darthfoley? this is ridiculous. what do you think i am? your portrayal of me as someone who never changes his mind about anything and is supremely confident in all his reads at all times is a comic caricature of my actual play and completely divorced from reality On February 01 2016 04:29 _MexicanAlien wrote: Because of how you accused him for very good reasons then suddenly dropped your case against him because he acted all sad and 'I want to learn'. and what about that is mafia behavior? On February 01 2016 04:30 _MexicanAlien wrote: And them how he tried to convince us you didn't help him, even though the only thing that would accomplish would be to make you less suspicious, which is not something town would do. ok so that is a reason to think ikidomari is mafia, but then how does that have anything to do with me? | ||
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I am legitimately stunned that this isn't obvious to everyone. That's horrible mafia play. If Iki was going to incriminate himself like that, then the correct thing to do is to ignore it for a bit and hope no one else really calls it out. Maybe they don't and you coast (especially in a newbie game), neither one of you are in the spotlight and it's perfect. If someone else calls it out, then you bus Iki and move along. But look at how the game has played out, literally the only reason any of you chuckleheads are talking about Iki at all is because I put Iki's big post during day 1 on blast. How does that make any sense for a partner to do? | ||
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On February 01 2016 05:58 nooniansoong wrote: Eden lol don't be full of yourself. I jumped on ikid as did Darth at the same time you did. Darth followed me lol. And you didn't get in the middle of it and push the issue like I did. I guess saying no one would have noticed at all is a stretch, but the main point's the same, doing what I did with Iki makes no sense for a scum team. | ||
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JesusIncarnate is replaced by scott31337. well bummer. Thought we could get the 2-for-1 | ||
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On February 01 2016 05:58 Trfel wrote: Okay, thanks, that was the reaction I was digging for. I guess that might not have been the nicest thing to do, though, so I'm sorry. digging for that reaction for what purpose? you done pretending to care about the game and satisfied just shit-stirring at this point? | ||
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At least we got one and my day 1 wasn't a total waste. Anyway scott needs to do something quick now that the burden is on us to lynch Jesus's slot and we don't get any freebies. | ||
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Of course the other thing to note is that he flip flopped on Jesus between his fabricated reads and his 3-3-3 reads. I can't reread that right now but I would bet it will clearly tell us Jesus's alignment. | ||
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On February 01 2016 11:53 _MexicanAlien wrote: How can you even say what he 'probably' did? You cannot put yourself in his position, not if you gro how to be accurate. And a flip flop for Jesus does not mean his read will 'clearly tell us Jesus's alignment. Also, why can't you reread it right now? Why are you being so goddamned difficult with everybody this game? Christ you're annoying. I was at work when I posted that, so I couldn't reread it right then. I can say what he 'probably' did because I've played a lot of games of mafia and have learned to recognize patterns in first-level scum behavior. It's how I caught Iki in the first place. I've more than proven myself on that front, so why are you being such a fucking twat when I submit a theory for review during a free minute at work? | ||
Eden1892
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On February 01 2016 12:44 Trfel wrote: See, this is what I'm getting at. You can't blame me for avoiding you when you're rubbing my face in the mud every time you're in the thread. Calling me scum is one thing, this kind of attitude is different. Yeah this guy is a piece of shit and makes me want to policy lynch him tbh. | ||
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On February 01 2016 11:49 _MexicanAlien wrote: Oh please, he took 5 minutes to OMGUS, then he had me and darthfoley backing him, but he decided 'oh shame poor little Ikidomari hes just a little noob.' He wanted to look like he was fully scumming ikidomari. Then, after iki came back under town suspicion, eden1892 pretended he was scum reading the whole time. to 'omgus'???? I accused him first you moron. He townread me in his big reads list. | ||
Eden1892
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On February 01 2016 12:50 _MexicanAlien wrote: How am I supposed to know that? Really. You're not, but you're not supposed to be a fucking twat to people every time they don't do exactly what you would want them to do right when you want it. Dumbass. | ||
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Someone says they can't do something right now. Instead of getting in their face about it and coming after them aggressively like you do, you give them time to get back to it, and question them later if they don't. Doing what you do only pushes scum agenda because it's substantially demotivating to play a game with stringent assholes that get in your face over irrelevant shit. | ||
Eden1892
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On February 01 2016 12:52 _MexicanAlien wrote: I knowi can't be objective with this, but getting rid ofa player because he's useless is alwaysa bad idea, unless you have scumread on him/her. Look at Shapelog. He's still in. Why have you not gotten rid of him? He's gotten slightly better since the beginning but still Maybe you could just take a fucking hint and stop being an asshole so we don't have to pursue bad ideas then?? | ||
Eden1892
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On February 01 2016 12:52 darthfoley wrote: Eden, what do you think town's best course of action is over the next day or two? Trfel, what do you think town's best course of action is over the next day or two? MexicanAlien, what do you think town's best course of action is over the next day or two? Man let me fucking vent at this kid for two seconds before I get back to it. This shit has been pissing me off all game and it's got to stop. | ||
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
I've been super demotivated and not at all wanting to put in effort this game because every time I've had something to argue or what I felt was a good point, Onegu or this Mex kid or somebody else has to jump in and act like the big shot and show everyone how big his e-peen is with insults or dumb aggressive questioning. It's the whole reason (besides reduced accessibility due to work) why I stopped playing for half a year in the first place. This place gets so fucking toxic with its games. Half the player base has no fucking clue how to have a civil conversation or pursue fair questions. I don't have all day to play mafia, and I have additional personal issues when I play. Most notably I have a terrible issue focusing. It's why I tend to get talked out of good cases against scum (happened 2x in a row 2 games running) and the main reason I'm not as good as I potentially could be. So when I come back on, and have a lot of information to process, and on top of that there are toxic jackasses flooding the thread with useless aggressive questioning, I reach the "fuck it" point really quick and just don't even bother trying to catch up. You'll notice a lot of my successful cases come when I happen to be online at the same time something scummy happens. I very rarely catch anything from rereading, because I don't reread much. Is it too much to ask for people to stop being dicks so I can focus on what matters?? Please? | ||
Eden1892
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On February 01 2016 13:00 _MexicanAlien wrote: Oh so like the scum are getting edgy because their teammate just got lynched, and now they want to promote useless talk. Makes sense, good thinking Yeah the teammate I pushed into the spotlight in the first place and pushed over the top today. Moron. | ||
Eden1892
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On February 01 2016 13:05 Trfel wrote: Basically every time that the thread is toxic, it's caused by town. Any game. To both of you. ...huh. That's actually a pretty cool insight. I never thought about it, but this is actually true in my experience too. I wonder why that is. But that's probably not a useful conversation. Maybe a postgame discussion. | ||
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On January 28 2016 15:25 Ikidomari wrote: Sure. It's his attitude. I admit I'm biased because I dislike the way he types, but I couldn't stop thinking about motivations as to why he'd be so arrogant, and how that arrogance could be used to his advantage. The only logical reason that I could see someone would draw so much attention to themselves is so that, if they were mafia, people would think "Man, there's no way mafia would be stupid enough to draw that much attention to themselves, he must be town" It seems suspicious as hell to me, and I can't think of a good reason a town player would paint themselves as a target. His posting style reminds me of an anonymous poster on 4chan, not of a TL user looking to solve a puzzle. Source: I spend far too much time on both websites. This post and Iki's large reads post make me think Jesus is very likely to be town. 1. Notice that Iki's whole reason for putting Jesus as his top lynch is all NAI. He talks a lot about Jesus having a 'bad attitude' and why he scumreads Jesus for it. None of that makes Jesus mafia. Generally when scum push scum, they have actually concrete things to point out for why their partner is guilty. These really NAI reads aren't typical, since they don't get you any credit for 'being right' down the line (since you weren't actually right; you voted 'correctly' but for the wrong reasons). 2. This is coming right as Jesus has some pressure on him from other players, too; he was, if not the leading vote-getter, in prime position to be when Iki makes his entrance into the thread. If Jesus were his scumbuddy, then Iki is actually committing to bussing Jesus pretty hard with this stance that he takes. It leaves him very little room to abandon ship, and it comes at probably the peak of suspicion on Jesus in the entire thread at that point. It's at the point where the anti-Jesus push had maximum momentum in the thread, which means there are a lot of people who are gonna be looking hard at Iki if he tries to walk it back later. I mention this because... 3. This bus, were it a bus, looks incredibly sloppy. I mean think about it. If you're going to bus a teammate, how do you start off deciding to townread him and then change course mid-post? Bussing is a very deliberate tactic with a lot of internal calculations -- how hard to push, how many escape routes to leave yourself, what arguments to raise and how to raise them, it goes on. You don't just haphazardly decide halfway through a long fabricated reads post to bus your teammate. It just doesn't happen. | ||
Eden1892
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On February 01 2016 10:08 Eden1892 wrote: My working theory before actually reexamining his reads is that, as I noted initially, the 3-3-3 reads were fabricated. I doubt he townread any of his teammates unless they were widely townread. Probably he left one of them off and null'd the other. Of course the other thing to note is that he flip flopped on Jesus between his fabricated reads and his 3-3-3 reads. I can't reread that right now but I would bet it will clearly tell us Jesus's alignment. Based on this theory, if it's right, Trfel is town as well. Looking somewhat likely I think, Trfel wasn't under a lot of pressure at the time so there's not a lot of motive to randomly scumread one of your partners. Additionally, looking at this: Scum: Onegu, JesusIncarnate, Tfel Town: PMT, Darth, Alur Keep a close eye on: Shape, Tumble, Kuragari We're already 2/3 of the way toward him having no scum in his town or scum reads. The pattern of "one left off, one null'd" is so typical of mafia, it's hard to imagine this isn't what's going on here. He also says this: I went back and read through all of Trfel and Onegu's filters. Based on their posts to each other, I don't think they're both scum. Both come off as scummy, but if one was proven scum, my suspicion toward the other would drop. Which is interesting. I think a tactic like this is common of newer scum players too -- pair two townies together and say "well they can't both be scum, I would be less suspicious of one if the other flipped scum." Because you know neither one will, you give yourself an out to suspect the 2nd one if the first one gets mislynched. None of this is ironclad, I know. And I still really dislike a lot of Trfel's approach to this game. But there's substantial circumstantial evidence pointing toward Trfel being town based on Iki's filter, and Trfel has a couple of things going for him independently that really make me think he's town. He seems to be trying very hard to me in this game, and his posts just feel so sincere to me. I don't know how to describe it, and if someone disagrees here we're probably just gonna have to agree to disagree, because I don't know how to argue this effectively. There's just enough of a culmination of little things -- Iki's posting about Trfel and the patterns new scum tend to have with how they list and pursue suspects; Trfel's filter length and tone in posting, and effort level -- that push me into thinking Trfel is town. | ||
Eden1892
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On February 01 2016 13:20 Trfel wrote: I'm bad at night kill analysis. There are too many variables. it could have been a medic dodge ( Eden) the fucking dream is so real On February 01 2016 13:24 darthfoley wrote: I have had similar thoughts regarding Jesus. That's why I really don't like posts like this. This is so dismissive from PMT. I don't like it either, but I also don't feel like it comes from mafia tbh. It's rather bold. Plus, and I know this is associative based off of an unproven flip, but if you accept my previous premise that Jesus is town, PMT basically said "I am committing to mislynching this townie no matter what his replacement says." That position is going to be really hard to defend if scott comes in and does something meaningful. Suddenly you're stuck with having to walk this post back, and your reasoning won't be good, or you're deliberately committing to a likely mislynch without a good reason. It's the kind of somewhat reckless and yet semi-reasonable premise that I would expect a newer town player confident in a scumread to pursue, but not something that would come from mafia. | ||
Eden1892
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Eden1892
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On February 01 2016 13:35 Trfel wrote: Eden, if I may.... What do you mean by saying that you haven't liked my approach this game? Both so I can know what I'm doing wrong, and to help me understand your read on me. Well, I'm not even sure what you were doing was wrong. I didn't like it, but that doesn't make it objectively incorrect or meritorious of change. The critical mass of early questions and the very defeatist, almost angsty demeanor more recently. Bear in mind that the latter observation is thoroughly and completely hypocritical of me to make and I recognize it lol. I just felt your early questions looked a lot like a mafia player trying to get his feet under him for the game, probing weaknesses in other townies to try to attack them. And I felt that you were misrepresenting other players who had disagreements with you about what certain pieces of evidence meant as personal attacks against you. Lots of "nobody ever likes playing with me" types of sentiments when it seemed more like people were just having trouble wrapping their heads around how you came to the conclusions you did regarding some in-game events. (apologize for the vagueness here, I don't really feel like looking up specific examples) That reaction tends to come from mafia players more of the time, as they tend not to be as emotionally in-tune to what town players are saying. I know that sounds like some really New Age weird shit, but it's true -- mafia are deliberately distant from the events of the game due to their perfect information and have a tendency to misunderstand what people with limited information are saying. I think all of that was probably reason enough to pursue you earlier, but I also think it's quite a bit weaker than the reasons I have to townread you. So, I thought you were mafia before, but I think you're probably town now. | ||
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On January 29 2016 00:57 Ikidomari wrote: Let's take this a step further then. In the hypothetical situation where I'm mafia: either Eden or Darth aren't my Teammates, I've been caught as obvious scum. My best play to help my team at this point is to put a strong townie under suspicion. I "fall" for your obvious WIFOM, and either A) You believe my response and drop suspicion on me, or B) "you got me", and you now suspect a good town to be mafia. Don't tell me how WIFOM works, then expect me to immediately fall for it jesus. I made a bad play in my first ever game, but I'm not a moron. As to why I responded, Either I ignore the post, other people read your "if you don't respond to this you're scum", and conclude that I am, indeed scum If I do reply you pull this WIFOM shit on me, and I at least have a chance to retort it. If I'm still alive come tomorrow I'm going to be riding you hard I begrudgingly acknowledge that this sequence also basically clears MexicanAlien as badly as I'd love to lynch him anyway. | ||
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Tumblewood nooniansoong PepperMintTea Of the living players, I've already explained why I believe Trfel, Mex, Shapelog, and Jesus are all town. Of course, darth is confirmed town, and I am town too. That leaves the above pile, and quite honestly? I like it a lot. In fact, I'm gonna go way deep. I think it's kush and Tumblewood. I can't explain why all that well. But I'm gonna give ya what I got. First Tumblewood. Trfel is right. Iki's read on Tumblewood is really weird. Trfel already explained this, but Iki left himself a ton of wiggle room for reading Tumblewood as town or mafia. But then notice how he addresses Trfel in that same post: Trfel Scum read, has a whole lot of posts just asking questions without contributing any information, a whole lot of words with not much to say. Jumped on the voting for tumbleweed bandwagon simply because it's embarrassing the newbies caught tumble, and not Trfel himself? (Am I missing something here?) My biggest reason for thinking Trfel is scum is #607 where he says he's trying very hard not to direct the thread, then proceeds to direct the hell out of the thread dissecting tumbleweed's filter, this results in tumbleweed being the current lynch target. Maybe this is a sick town play and we're going to get rid of mafia on the first night, but I think, judging from his experience, Trfel is an experienced mafia player, and is scum trying to get a townie lynched on day 1. Isn't the certainty of this read really strange given his ambivalence about Tumblewood? Like he is sure Trfel is mafia. At least relative to his other reads, this is as close to a definite statement we're gonna get from Iki on anybody. And the bulk of his reason why has to do with Trfel pushing Tumblewood. But... if Iki himself is so unsure about Tumblewood's alignment, why is Trfel so clearly suspicious for pushing Tumblewood? Clearly, you would think, Iki has reservations about Tumblewood from reading Iki's posts. You would expect Iki to at least be somewhat okay with the idea that Tumblewood is mafia, and thus to be somewhat okay with Trfel pushing that idea. I think Iki was trying to help Tumblewood out by going after Trfel, but also tried to cover his tracks and not leave too obvious an association between them. For the new players, this is called a chainsaw defense -- where you alleviate pressure on a teammate by attacking his attacker, and put the attacker on the backpedal, in order to drive the spotlight away from your teammate. And guess who else was in on this "push Trfel for his Tumblewood read" action? kush. kush is where I'm going way deep on this. But I got a few circumstantial reasons, an associative read, and a goddamn DREAM. 1. kush has been very adamantly defending me from the players scumreading me. There's something weird about it. In the first place... I don't think he should have been so sure! I can't even believe I'm using this argument, but I would concede that I haven't been as obviously town as I normally would be. I believe I've satisfactorily explained why this is the case, but that doesn't matter. kush didn't know all that. He still was sure I was town. The second thing is that I didn't really need it! I can defend myself, he knows it and knows I know it. I was never a serious lynch prospect, despite what Mex and Shapelog would want to believe. (Sorry amigos.) He gave great reasons for me being town. Reasons he could easily give as town. But the timing is what's so weird. I didn't need it... so it wasn't actually contributing all that much. It gets weirder when you consider a great deal of that effort in defending me was made to Trfel, as he was scumreading Trfel. Like why would you bother? You think Trfel is mafia so you would then believe he doesn't actually believe his read on me. So why go to the effort of arguing with him about me? Makes no sense from townie POV. But it does make sense from scum POV, because it looks like a relevant topic for discussion, and you think you can get Trfel to say something shady if you keep talking about my alignment and eventually I flip town. 2. kush has been attacking Trfel very doggedly about this Tumblewood read. The timing on that has also been consistent with the notion of a chainsaw defense. You have to believe Tumblewood is mafia already for this to work, but it makes sense based on what's already been discussed. Frankly, I've felt his attack has been too stringent. It feels just a little bit beyond reasonable townie aggression to me. I don't really know how to explain this right, but I am pretty sure I am reading this correctly. I think kush was defending his partner Tumblewood, and by taking the mindset that Tumblewood must be in the right and Trfel must be in the wrong, kush went beyond the reasonable limits of townie interrogation and argumentation on Tumblewood's alignment. kush just seems too sure about Trfel being wrong about Tumblewood for my tastes. 3. As noted before, I believe Iki left one of his partners in the null/watch list, and one in the list of players he didn't discuss. If you accept my narrowing down the pool at the beginning of this post, and you also accept my premise about where Iki put his partners, then you know kush is, by process of elimination, the other partner. I'll concede that neither of these cases are ironclad, but I really really believe in them right now. I may go back and do further digging to see if I still believe them, or if I were incorrect. But I think this is a really good direction to go in and I would encourage people to join me on it. Scumteam is Tumblewood and nooniansoong. | ||
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
1. One of his teammates just rolled over and died day 1. We lynched the mafia rb with all of, what, 3-4 votes? 2. He was involved in another down-to-the-wire game as town which took all his attention. He kinda mailed in the last scum game to focus on the close game occurring simultaneously. And I don't think filter length is that big a deal, although I'm also open to just being wrong about kush altogether. I just don't think filter length would be the reason why. After all, you argue that his filter length is an aberration compared to both his town and his scum games -- this makes me think filter length is less indicative of anything than it normally would be. (Obviously, it being longer than normal tends to be a reason to think he's town. But I'm more concerned that it's an aberration here, as I think that should also make the heuristic of comparing filter length to previous games weaker than normal.) As for a strong direction... is there? He has one concerning you being mafia (as part of his team theory he keeps pushing) and me being town. There's not really a whole lot else. In fact I don't think his direction is all that strong; he's repeatedly said he's indifferent to which of his scum reads we lynch. I don't see it being outside of mafia range. I don't get your Superman question. Why is it unlikely that he would, and why would this effort even be particularly Herculean? He hasn't actually had to do a whole lot this game. He wasn't a key factor in either lynch, which is important when you consider how relatively involved you say he is, based on filter length. | ||
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The roleblock claim. Now that I believe Jesus is town, roleblocking kush really doesn't make sense. They shot Alur and allegedly didn't roleblock him? In a format where we haven't yet been able to rule out a veteran? Okay... But then obviously this puts us in the world where there's a doctor. What about kush's play makes you think he's a doctor? And if you do think he's a doctor, why not shoot kush instead? It's not like he was getting lynched at any point during d1/n1. This also reminds me to check Alur's suspects. I checked what he said about kush and honestly, the timing seems very good for a kill on Alur. He was starting to get worried about kush being mafia, and makes an important point that's remarkably consistent with my issue with kush townreading me: too much information. On January 29 2016 02:07 Alur wrote: What? There is arguably some logic to not be willing to share scumreads. But why are you incapable of elaborating on a townread? Like I really don't see how it could hurt town. If you genuinely believe someone is town, you have a vested interest in convincing town of your read. The most legitimate way of doing this is by giving reasons, which as a bonus reveals how you're thinking about the game. You being incapable of providing reasons for townreading a player that many people find suspicious, makes sense if you're both mafia. You seem opposed to increasing the sum of knowledge publicly available to the town. On January 29 2016 08:12 Alur wrote: I think noon actually looks kind of spooky now, in the world where he has too much information his play makes a lot of sense. He was quick to disagree with it being a scumslip (which he was right on), he made a big point of forcing Kuragari to claim (which looks towny, but it's sort of an obvious move). All while his vote was parked on a player (albeit a reasonable lynchtarget) who is one of the biggest lynchbaits. Without really pushing that specific lynch. Alur says all this, but ends up ultimately giving kush a slight town read, with reservations. Which is basically the optimal time to cut Alur down, and might explain why Alur bit the bullet and not some of the other plausible choices (like darth, myself... or kush himself were he town lol). | ||
Eden1892
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On February 01 2016 14:48 darthfoley wrote: If kush is mafia, he lied about being rb'd. What's the long term motivation? It wouldn't simply be to gain some insta town cred, would it? You would fake rb claim to make town view the game in a way it shouldn't, right? Oh man. I got a great idea about this actually. This might be way too deep, but hear me out, I earned it dammit. Following from what I said about nightkilling Alur as he was getting onto kush. You might want to go a bit deeper and further cover this motivation up. Trfel made a joking reference to a medic dodge kill n1. What does that require? The medic to be in the game. How do you prove the medic is in the game to the town? By roleblocking somebody besides the nightkill -- if there's a veteran in the game then you always rb the guy you shoot. If there's a doc in the game you have no reason to rb the guy you shoot, since the doc can't self-protect. By claiming roleblock, mafia!kush makes the town believe there's a doc in the game, which then allows people to believe that Alur was shot as an obvious townie + medic dodge, instead of for his suspects. I don't suppose we would find any commentary from kush about medic dodging would we? On January 30 2016 07:44 nooniansoong wrote: Yo eden,,, blocking doctor to stop the save requires more moving parts than blocking the vig. Also I think they killed alur rather than you so they didn't have to worry about a save, I was pretty back and forth about both ikid and tumble. Add to that Jesus is my obvious vig shot, since it is Optimal to kill someone Scummy with low activity. Holy shit! I typed my rhetorical question before I looked this up! | ||
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On February 01 2016 16:44 _MexicanAlien wrote: Wow. Yeah. I'll have to think about this. Good investigative hypotheses @Eden. Very deep. Very deep. On February 01 2016 21:09 _MexicanAlien wrote: Hey guys I might not be around for the night end. I think the mafia is: Eden1892 Trfel Scum lean: scott31733 Tumblewood Town: darthfoley Shapelog Unknown: nooniansoong ................... | ||
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Why are you so sure Tumblewood is town? Please explain in detail. | ||
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some of those posts were REALLY strong from mafia POV gg shapelog! | ||
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On February 10 2016 07:30 nooniansoong wrote: And how does one catch you? there were holes in his analysis that we could have attacked, but that's hindsight. it's probably -EV in a newbie game though. i look forward to seeing shapelog in a game with the big boys | ||
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