EPTNewbie Student Mafia XIX - Page 85
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
What do you mean by saying that you haven't liked my approach this game? Both so I can know what I'm doing wrong, and to help me understand your read on me. | ||
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darthfoley
United States8001 Posts
On February 01 2016 13:27 Trfel wrote: Eden, you're really making me doubt my scumread on you  Bad Eden I need to think about this more later. Anyway, @Eden and darthfoley, what do you think about what I brought up about here? Possible association between Tumblewood and Ikidomari. + Show Spoiler [@darth] + To clarify, I'm not saying never to use nk analysis and association. I'm saying that if you do so, do it very carefully, because it's so so easy to get incorrect conclusions. You need to consider every possibility, and that a possibility can exist, however unlikely, that points to the wrong thing and just makes your conclusions completely wrong. Including simply "mafia didn't think of this", even if it was the correct thing. I'm more than willing to discuss, but I don't feel like your generalized statements of what is mafia indicative were correct for why I explained. Yea I reread that. It does look pretty wishy washy while giving himself a back door. I would be comfortable lynching Tumblewood if I somehow don't die. fingers crossed there's a doc. Also, I have forgotten why Shapelog is a super strong town read for everyone. Secondly, thought I might point this out. Ikidomari was a regular mafia goon, and it makes sense why mafia wouldn't try all that hard to save him, especially given how damning the evidence was. also, when the Godfather gets lynched, does he flip town or mafia? Does Godfather only matter with cop checks? | ||
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darthfoley
United States8001 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Especially in a setup like this, and we're presuming there is a doctor instead of a veteran. The godfather is useless, and the roleblocker is only good if it hits the doctor the same night where mafia is targeting the doctor's save. AKA barely useful. I actually feel that often, bussing the roleblocker because they're the roleblocker is better than saving the roleblocker because they're the roleblocker ^^ | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On February 01 2016 13:35 Trfel wrote: Eden, if I may.... What do you mean by saying that you haven't liked my approach this game? Both so I can know what I'm doing wrong, and to help me understand your read on me. Well, I'm not even sure what you were doing was wrong. I didn't like it, but that doesn't make it objectively incorrect or meritorious of change. The critical mass of early questions and the very defeatist, almost angsty demeanor more recently. Bear in mind that the latter observation is thoroughly and completely hypocritical of me to make and I recognize it lol. I just felt your early questions looked a lot like a mafia player trying to get his feet under him for the game, probing weaknesses in other townies to try to attack them. And I felt that you were misrepresenting other players who had disagreements with you about what certain pieces of evidence meant as personal attacks against you. Lots of "nobody ever likes playing with me" types of sentiments when it seemed more like people were just having trouble wrapping their heads around how you came to the conclusions you did regarding some in-game events. (apologize for the vagueness here, I don't really feel like looking up specific examples) That reaction tends to come from mafia players more of the time, as they tend not to be as emotionally in-tune to what town players are saying. I know that sounds like some really New Age weird shit, but it's true -- mafia are deliberately distant from the events of the game due to their perfect information and have a tendency to misunderstand what people with limited information are saying. I think all of that was probably reason enough to pursue you earlier, but I also think it's quite a bit weaker than the reasons I have to townread you. So, I thought you were mafia before, but I think you're probably town now. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On January 29 2016 00:57 Ikidomari wrote: Let's take this a step further then. In the hypothetical situation where I'm mafia: either Eden or Darth aren't my Teammates, I've been caught as obvious scum. My best play to help my team at this point is to put a strong townie under suspicion. I "fall" for your obvious WIFOM, and either A) You believe my response and drop suspicion on me, or B) "you got me", and you now suspect a good town to be mafia. Don't tell me how WIFOM works, then expect me to immediately fall for it jesus. I made a bad play in my first ever game, but I'm not a moron. As to why I responded, Either I ignore the post, other people read your "if you don't respond to this you're scum", and conclude that I am, indeed scum If I do reply you pull this WIFOM shit on me, and I at least have a chance to retort it. If I'm still alive come tomorrow I'm going to be riding you hard I begrudgingly acknowledge that this sequence also basically clears MexicanAlien as badly as I'd love to lynch him anyway. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I'm getting too tired for analysis and I'll probably go to bed soon. Good night. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Tumblewood nooniansoong PepperMintTea Of the living players, I've already explained why I believe Trfel, Mex, Shapelog, and Jesus are all town. Of course, darth is confirmed town, and I am town too. That leaves the above pile, and quite honestly? I like it a lot. In fact, I'm gonna go way deep. I think it's kush and Tumblewood. I can't explain why all that well. But I'm gonna give ya what I got. First Tumblewood. Trfel is right. Iki's read on Tumblewood is really weird. Trfel already explained this, but Iki left himself a ton of wiggle room for reading Tumblewood as town or mafia. But then notice how he addresses Trfel in that same post: Trfel Scum read, has a whole lot of posts just asking questions without contributing any information, a whole lot of words with not much to say. Jumped on the voting for tumbleweed bandwagon simply because it's embarrassing the newbies caught tumble, and not Trfel himself? (Am I missing something here?) My biggest reason for thinking Trfel is scum is #607 where he says he's trying very hard not to direct the thread, then proceeds to direct the hell out of the thread dissecting tumbleweed's filter, this results in tumbleweed being the current lynch target. Maybe this is a sick town play and we're going to get rid of mafia on the first night, but I think, judging from his experience, Trfel is an experienced mafia player, and is scum trying to get a townie lynched on day 1. Isn't the certainty of this read really strange given his ambivalence about Tumblewood? Like he is sure Trfel is mafia. At least relative to his other reads, this is as close to a definite statement we're gonna get from Iki on anybody. And the bulk of his reason why has to do with Trfel pushing Tumblewood. But... if Iki himself is so unsure about Tumblewood's alignment, why is Trfel so clearly suspicious for pushing Tumblewood? Clearly, you would think, Iki has reservations about Tumblewood from reading Iki's posts. You would expect Iki to at least be somewhat okay with the idea that Tumblewood is mafia, and thus to be somewhat okay with Trfel pushing that idea. I think Iki was trying to help Tumblewood out by going after Trfel, but also tried to cover his tracks and not leave too obvious an association between them. For the new players, this is called a chainsaw defense -- where you alleviate pressure on a teammate by attacking his attacker, and put the attacker on the backpedal, in order to drive the spotlight away from your teammate. And guess who else was in on this "push Trfel for his Tumblewood read" action? kush. kush is where I'm going way deep on this. But I got a few circumstantial reasons, an associative read, and a goddamn DREAM. 1. kush has been very adamantly defending me from the players scumreading me. There's something weird about it. In the first place... I don't think he should have been so sure! I can't even believe I'm using this argument, but I would concede that I haven't been as obviously town as I normally would be. I believe I've satisfactorily explained why this is the case, but that doesn't matter. kush didn't know all that. He still was sure I was town. The second thing is that I didn't really need it! I can defend myself, he knows it and knows I know it. I was never a serious lynch prospect, despite what Mex and Shapelog would want to believe. (Sorry amigos.) He gave great reasons for me being town. Reasons he could easily give as town. But the timing is what's so weird. I didn't need it... so it wasn't actually contributing all that much. It gets weirder when you consider a great deal of that effort in defending me was made to Trfel, as he was scumreading Trfel. Like why would you bother? You think Trfel is mafia so you would then believe he doesn't actually believe his read on me. So why go to the effort of arguing with him about me? Makes no sense from townie POV. But it does make sense from scum POV, because it looks like a relevant topic for discussion, and you think you can get Trfel to say something shady if you keep talking about my alignment and eventually I flip town. 2. kush has been attacking Trfel very doggedly about this Tumblewood read. The timing on that has also been consistent with the notion of a chainsaw defense. You have to believe Tumblewood is mafia already for this to work, but it makes sense based on what's already been discussed. Frankly, I've felt his attack has been too stringent. It feels just a little bit beyond reasonable townie aggression to me. I don't really know how to explain this right, but I am pretty sure I am reading this correctly. I think kush was defending his partner Tumblewood, and by taking the mindset that Tumblewood must be in the right and Trfel must be in the wrong, kush went beyond the reasonable limits of townie interrogation and argumentation on Tumblewood's alignment. kush just seems too sure about Trfel being wrong about Tumblewood for my tastes. 3. As noted before, I believe Iki left one of his partners in the null/watch list, and one in the list of players he didn't discuss. If you accept my narrowing down the pool at the beginning of this post, and you also accept my premise about where Iki put his partners, then you know kush is, by process of elimination, the other partner. I'll concede that neither of these cases are ironclad, but I really really believe in them right now. I may go back and do further digging to see if I still believe them, or if I were incorrect. But I think this is a really good direction to go in and I would encourage people to join me on it. Scumteam is Tumblewood and nooniansoong. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
However, I'm assuming you've seen his filter length. I'm a strong believer in the filter length argument. This is more posting than nooniansoong's shown as town, and FAR more than as mafia. And there's a strong direction to his posts, too. His most recent scum game seemed pretty roll over and die, correct me if I'm wrong? It's possible he could go Superman mode here, but how likely is it really? I'll look at your post again, and I probably should read his filter since I haven't actually yet, but for now I feel like filter length and his direction alone makes him town. Yeah, I need sleep, I'll think about it when I'm awake. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
1. One of his teammates just rolled over and died day 1. We lynched the mafia rb with all of, what, 3-4 votes? 2. He was involved in another down-to-the-wire game as town which took all his attention. He kinda mailed in the last scum game to focus on the close game occurring simultaneously. And I don't think filter length is that big a deal, although I'm also open to just being wrong about kush altogether. I just don't think filter length would be the reason why. After all, you argue that his filter length is an aberration compared to both his town and his scum games -- this makes me think filter length is less indicative of anything than it normally would be. (Obviously, it being longer than normal tends to be a reason to think he's town. But I'm more concerned that it's an aberration here, as I think that should also make the heuristic of comparing filter length to previous games weaker than normal.) As for a strong direction... is there? He has one concerning you being mafia (as part of his team theory he keeps pushing) and me being town. There's not really a whole lot else. In fact I don't think his direction is all that strong; he's repeatedly said he's indifferent to which of his scum reads we lynch. I don't see it being outside of mafia range. I don't get your Superman question. Why is it unlikely that he would, and why would this effort even be particularly Herculean? He hasn't actually had to do a whole lot this game. He wasn't a key factor in either lynch, which is important when you consider how relatively involved you say he is, based on filter length. | ||
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darthfoley
United States8001 Posts
also pls medic if you're out there | ||
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darthfoley
United States8001 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 01 2016 14:44 Eden1892 wrote: Okay, okay, I'll look into it. But tomorrow. I'm going to bed right when I finish this post.It was pretty roll over and die, but there were a couple of key factors accounting for that difference: 1. One of his teammates just rolled over and died day 1. We lynched the mafia rb with all of, what, 3-4 votes? 2. He was involved in another down-to-the-wire game as town which took all his attention. He kinda mailed in the last scum game to focus on the close game occurring simultaneously. And I don't think filter length is that big a deal, although I'm also open to just being wrong about kush altogether. I just don't think filter length would be the reason why. After all, you argue that his filter length is an aberration compared to both his town and his scum games -- this makes me think filter length is less indicative of anything than it normally would be. (Obviously, it being longer than normal tends to be a reason to think he's town. But I'm more concerned that it's an aberration here, as I think that should also make the heuristic of comparing filter length to previous games weaker than normal.) As for a strong direction... is there? He has one concerning you being mafia (as part of his team theory he keeps pushing) and me being town. There's not really a whole lot else. In fact I don't think his direction is all that strong; he's repeatedly said he's indifferent to which of his scum reads we lynch. I don't see it being outside of mafia range. I don't get your Superman question. Why is it unlikely that he would, and why would this effort even be particularly Herculean? He hasn't actually had to do a whole lot this game. He wasn't a key factor in either lynch, which is important when you consider how relatively involved you say he is, based on filter length. I guess the big thing for me is that I used some of the same arguments against him last game and ended up being wildly wrong. Like, I used that exact same argument about the post count being so far from the normal last game that it was even suspicious for that, haha. I get that I'm bad but I still try not to scumread someone for the same thing when I was just wrong on that very thing the game before... I really didn't think about the two games at once thing, though. I need to read his filter. Good night. | ||
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darthfoley
United States8001 Posts
On January 30 2016 07:00 Eden1892 wrote: hmmmmmmm. I'm a bit skeptical about this roleblock claim. I don't know how reasonable it is to be suspicious of kush for this though. Basically, knowing there was a vig, and knowing the mafia know there was a vig, they had three possible roles to play around: 1. the vig (of course) 2. the veteran 3. the doctor It's plausible to roleblock somebody to play around a vigilante, which is the main reason why I don't think the claim is too weird. I don't know why kush though. But when you consider that they would also know about a protective role, wouldn't it make more sense to use the roleblock on that instead of trying to roleblock to maybe protect someone? Like I can't imagine using the roleblocker to protect Jesus from vig!Kush. The number of things you'd have to have lined up to make that a reasonable play are a bit too high for me. 1. you'd have to have a good read on kush being the vig. I don't see how you would do that. Maybe reading kush lying low as a blue makes sense, but specifically vig doesn't really make sense to me. 2. you'd have to have a good read on kush wanting to shoot Jesus. if you read him as vig I guess that's safe. 3. Jesus would also have to be mafia. obviously, but still worth noting. That's just a lot of moving parts. I don't think that's what did it. And obviously, since they shot Alur, they weren't playing around a veteran. So that leaves a doc. I don't remember kush being adamant about Alur being town... far from it, kush suggested Alur could be mafia at a couple of points. I guess if you just are trying to hit the doc at random then kush is an ok target for lying low... but then that raises another question. If they reasonably thought kush was doc, why not shoot kush? That leaves me with four possible explanations: 1. Mafia thought kush was the vig and roleblocked him to protect Jesus. This means Jesus is mafia and the mafia also didn't feel the need to play around a veteran. Lots of parts here but not impossible. 2. Mafia thought kush was the doc and roleblocked him to prevent him from protecting someone. This could be the case I guess, but it makes very little sense because I would basically always shoot the doc n1 if I had a good read on him. 3. Mafia didn't really think kush was anything and just roleblocked him. This is clearly suboptimal mafia play: if there's a vet in the game, you rb your kill if you don't think anyone else is a blue, and if there's a doc in the game and you don't think it's kush, you rb someone else to try to hit the doc. 4. kush is fakeclaiming rb. (*: Obviously claiming roleblocked doesn't confirm you town, and is NAI, but sometimes townies take an illogical stance on the roleblock and incorrectly (from a process standpoint) confirm a townie to be town. Why risk that if you don't really have a lead on a blue?) So basically, either kush is mafia or Jesus is. Because kush's rb claim can only be genuine from the standpoint where the mafia think kush is the vig, and they used the rb to protect Jesus from kush. I'd have to go look and see if Jesus is the one. kush did seem to be mostly on Jesus. Quoting this so people can look at this post again | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 01 2016 14:48 darthfoley wrote: 1. RB on the doctor is unlikely, doesn't hurt mafia to hold RBIf kush is mafia, he lied about being rb'd. What's the long term motivation? It wouldn't simply be to gain some insta town cred, would it? You would fake rb claim to make town view the game in a way it shouldn't, right? 2. If there's a veteran, obviously no one is alive to claim RB cause you RB the nk 2 is pretty stupid for mafia to go for if there is no veteran, but I could see 1. Never seen it done before, but not that much reason why not to. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
The roleblock claim. Now that I believe Jesus is town, roleblocking kush really doesn't make sense. They shot Alur and allegedly didn't roleblock him? In a format where we haven't yet been able to rule out a veteran? Okay... But then obviously this puts us in the world where there's a doctor. What about kush's play makes you think he's a doctor? And if you do think he's a doctor, why not shoot kush instead? It's not like he was getting lynched at any point during d1/n1. This also reminds me to check Alur's suspects. I checked what he said about kush and honestly, the timing seems very good for a kill on Alur. He was starting to get worried about kush being mafia, and makes an important point that's remarkably consistent with my issue with kush townreading me: too much information. On January 29 2016 02:07 Alur wrote: What? There is arguably some logic to not be willing to share scumreads. But why are you incapable of elaborating on a townread? Like I really don't see how it could hurt town. If you genuinely believe someone is town, you have a vested interest in convincing town of your read. The most legitimate way of doing this is by giving reasons, which as a bonus reveals how you're thinking about the game. You being incapable of providing reasons for townreading a player that many people find suspicious, makes sense if you're both mafia. You seem opposed to increasing the sum of knowledge publicly available to the town. On January 29 2016 08:12 Alur wrote: I think noon actually looks kind of spooky now, in the world where he has too much information his play makes a lot of sense. He was quick to disagree with it being a scumslip (which he was right on), he made a big point of forcing Kuragari to claim (which looks towny, but it's sort of an obvious move). All while his vote was parked on a player (albeit a reasonable lynchtarget) who is one of the biggest lynchbaits. Without really pushing that specific lynch. Alur says all this, but ends up ultimately giving kush a slight town read, with reservations. Which is basically the optimal time to cut Alur down, and might explain why Alur bit the bullet and not some of the other plausible choices (like darth, myself... or kush himself were he town lol). | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On February 01 2016 14:48 darthfoley wrote: If kush is mafia, he lied about being rb'd. What's the long term motivation? It wouldn't simply be to gain some insta town cred, would it? You would fake rb claim to make town view the game in a way it shouldn't, right? Oh man. I got a great idea about this actually. This might be way too deep, but hear me out, I earned it dammit. Following from what I said about nightkilling Alur as he was getting onto kush. You might want to go a bit deeper and further cover this motivation up. Trfel made a joking reference to a medic dodge kill n1. What does that require? The medic to be in the game. How do you prove the medic is in the game to the town? By roleblocking somebody besides the nightkill -- if there's a veteran in the game then you always rb the guy you shoot. If there's a doc in the game you have no reason to rb the guy you shoot, since the doc can't self-protect. By claiming roleblock, mafia!kush makes the town believe there's a doc in the game, which then allows people to believe that Alur was shot as an obvious townie + medic dodge, instead of for his suspects. I don't suppose we would find any commentary from kush about medic dodging would we? On January 30 2016 07:44 nooniansoong wrote: Yo eden,,, blocking doctor to stop the save requires more moving parts than blocking the vig. Also I think they killed alur rather than you so they didn't have to worry about a save, I was pretty back and forth about both ikid and tumble. Add to that Jesus is my obvious vig shot, since it is Optimal to kill someone Scummy with low activity. Holy shit! I typed my rhetorical question before I looked this up! | ||
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