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On February 01 2016 12:49 Eden1892 wrote:
Don't do what? Rid the thread of a useless, toxic player? What I meant was, don't say those things. And if you absolutely must, which you shouldn't, bu anyway, please separate gameplay from personality.
I believe the guideline is, "that play was idiotic" and "your play this game is idiotic" is okay and "you are idiotic" is not.
But no, even if you're being serious, which I can't imagine you are, regardless of alignment, he can't be lynched unless there are actual reasons to say that he is mafia and you know this. Because he's been by far the most aggressive to me, and I don't want to lynch him, so you can't do so.
@_MexicanAlien, I did answer many of the concerns you raised with my play, even if not directly. If you would like I can go back through and make sure to answer completely. I'd just really appreciate it if you discuss instead of criticize and call me scum without leaving any room for actual discussion and thinking. "You're scum" is one thing, "you're scum and here, I'll taunt and insult you" is another.
@darthfoley, my initial thinking is to lynch Tumblewood and that my list post is correct, but now that I actually have more time and stuff has happened I need to look much more carefully. I'm not sure when I will get a chance to do this, I'm quite busy.
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Darthfoley, if you have any new ideas or insights, I'm listening.
I don't have the time to do analysis of my own tonight, but I can respond and look at specific things if you want.
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Just so everyone knows, I'm going my best to release an updated darthfoley's reads post some hours before the night ends. I fully expect to die, but I would at least like people to know what I think before I am found shot and stuffed in an alley dumpster
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On February 01 2016 12:56 darthfoley wrote:
I think the lack of useful discussion is something to be mindful of. Don't think it's simply random
Oh so like the scum are getting edgy because their teammate just got lynched, and now they want to promote useless talk. Makes sense, good thinking
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It's just so frustrating. This whole game has been.
I've been super demotivated and not at all wanting to put in effort this game because every time I've had something to argue or what I felt was a good point, Onegu or this Mex kid or somebody else has to jump in and act like the big shot and show everyone how big his e-peen is with insults or dumb aggressive questioning.
It's the whole reason (besides reduced accessibility due to work) why I stopped playing for half a year in the first place. This place gets so fucking toxic with its games. Half the player base has no fucking clue how to have a civil conversation or pursue fair questions.
I don't have all day to play mafia, and I have additional personal issues when I play. Most notably I have a terrible issue focusing. It's why I tend to get talked out of good cases against scum (happened 2x in a row 2 games running) and the main reason I'm not as good as I potentially could be.
So when I come back on, and have a lot of information to process, and on top of that there are toxic jackasses flooding the thread with useless aggressive questioning, I reach the "fuck it" point really quick and just don't even bother trying to catch up. You'll notice a lot of my successful cases come when I happen to be online at the same time something scummy happens. I very rarely catch anything from rereading, because I don't reread much.
Is it too much to ask for people to stop being dicks so I can focus on what matters?? Please?
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On February 01 2016 13:00 _MexicanAlien wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2016 12:56 darthfoley wrote:
I think the lack of useful discussion is something to be mindful of. Don't think it's simply random Oh so like the scum are getting edgy because their teammate just got lynched, and now they want to promote useless talk. Makes sense, good thinking
Yeah the teammate I pushed into the spotlight in the first place and pushed over the top today.
Moron.
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Never mind that you started it to begin with. You promoted this line of conversation. If you hadn't been a pushy, self-righteous jackass we wouldn't be having this discussion.
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On February 01 2016 13:00 _MexicanAlien wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2016 12:56 darthfoley wrote:
I think the lack of useful discussion is something to be mindful of. Don't think it's simply random Oh so like the scum are getting edgy because their teammate just got lynched, and now they want to promote useless talk. Makes sense, good thinking Basically every time that the thread is toxic, it's caused by town. Any game.
To both of you.
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It's incredible to me that somebody can scumread people for "promoting useless talk" after actively provoking the conversation that he then goes on to call "useless talk." Just incredible.
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On February 01 2016 12:17 darthfoley wrote:
Just want to summarize publicly Ikidomari's two read posts
First read post
Town:
darthfoley
Alur
PMT
Scum:
Onegu
JesusIncarnate
Trfel
Need to look at closer (edited this in, was the post below said quoted post):
Shapelog
Tumbelwood
Kuragari
Last read post
Town:
Alur
Kuragari (already dead)
Darthfoley
MexicanAlien
Eden
Tumblewood
Null/Doesn't give a read:
PMT
Shapelog (says he's town for now, look at him very closely)
Scum
Onegu
Trfel
Kush
JesusIncarnate
@Trfel and others. I would prefer we start playing the association game, at least a little bit. People have been scolded for that earlier, but I don't think I've seen enough discussion regarding who Ikidomari town/scum read and when now that we've actually flipped scum.
I also will do my research, but I think the best way to find remaining scum and do a thorough look at his filter, focusing on who Ikidomari seems 100% in disagreement with, or who he does not directly interact with. When I was mafia last game with kush, I had no idea how to naturally interact with him in the thread, and as a result my filter mentioning him was very slim. I find it likely that Ikidomari faced similar difficulties
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On February 01 2016 13:05 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2016 13:00 _MexicanAlien wrote:On February 01 2016 12:56 darthfoley wrote:
I think the lack of useful discussion is something to be mindful of. Don't think it's simply random Oh so like the scum are getting edgy because their teammate just got lynched, and now they want to promote useless talk. Makes sense, good thinking Basically every time that the thread is toxic, it's caused by town. Any game. To both of you.
...huh. That's actually a pretty cool insight. I never thought about it, but this is actually true in my experience too.
I wonder why that is. But that's probably not a useful conversation. Maybe a postgame discussion.
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I'm going to sit out for a few hours, I think PMT and darth are the only people I trust right now to give us accurate, meaningful reads.
+ Show Spoiler + also, school. I'll find reasons to come back online every so often
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On February 01 2016 13:06 darthfoley wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2016 12:17 darthfoley wrote:
Just want to summarize publicly Ikidomari's two read posts
First read post
Town:
darthfoley
Alur
PMT
Scum:
Onegu
JesusIncarnate
Trfel
Need to look at closer (edited this in, was the post below said quoted post):
Shapelog
Tumbelwood
Kuragari
Last read post
Town:
Alur
Kuragari (already dead)
Darthfoley
MexicanAlien
Eden
Tumblewood
Null/Doesn't give a read:
PMT
Shapelog (says he's town for now, look at him very closely)
Scum
Onegu
Trfel
Kush
JesusIncarnate
@Trfel and others. I would prefer we start playing the association game, at least a little bit. People have been scolded for that earlier, but I don't think I've seen enough discussion regarding who Ikidomari town/scum read and when now that we've actually flipped scum. I also will do my research, but I think the best way to find remaining scum and do a thorough look at his filter, focusing on who Ikidomari seems 100% in disagreement with, or who he does not directly interact with. When I was mafia last game with kush, I had no idea how to naturally interact with him in the thread, and as a result my filter mentioning him was very slim. I find it likely that Ikidomari faced similar difficulties I think that given Ikidomari's low activity, this isn't the best approach. Too many unknowns and too many ways that it could go wrong. Also, it's not hard for mafia to interact with teammates for shorter periods of time.
The best way to find mafia is always to look for mafia motivation. Tools like vote count analysis, night kill analysis, and association are beneficial, but they're tools. You still need to do the work yourself, and have the other tools supplement and fine-tune what you found through "standard" analysis.
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Did we ever ever a real discussion why Alur was killed and not me, or maybe even Eden? I was townread probably harder than Alur at the time, so the only thing I can think of is that
1) his reads were better than mine
2) mafia thought he was blue
3) both
I can't remember if we just accepted his death as obvi NK, because it surprised me slightly.
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On January 28 2016 15:25 Ikidomari wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2016 15:16 Eden1892 wrote:sigh hittin me right in the feels with "keep me alive so I can learn" I'll humor that your post took a while and you changed your mind as a result, Iki. After all, I pretty rapidly changed course on who I wanted to lynch while I was typing my post  But you got to explain to me what changed your mind. It's a bit odd to me that you claim you did, because you didn't make much mention of Jesus in-between your read on him and your list of reads. And you didn't put it back in at the end... or in the follow-up post where you voted for him... So what changed your mind about Jesus? Please be as specific as you can. Sure. It's his attitude. I admit I'm biased because I dislike the way he types, but I couldn't stop thinking about motivations as to why he'd be so arrogant, and how that arrogance could be used to his advantage. The only logical reason that I could see someone would draw so much attention to themselves is so that, if they were mafia, people would think "Man, there's no way mafia would be stupid enough to draw that much attention to themselves, he must be town" It seems suspicious as hell to me, and I can't think of a good reason a town player would paint themselves as a target. His posting style reminds me of an anonymous poster on 4chan, not of a TL user looking to solve a puzzle. Source: I spend far too much time on both websites.
This post and Iki's large reads post make me think Jesus is very likely to be town.
1. Notice that Iki's whole reason for putting Jesus as his top lynch is all NAI. He talks a lot about Jesus having a 'bad attitude' and why he scumreads Jesus for it. None of that makes Jesus mafia. Generally when scum push scum, they have actually concrete things to point out for why their partner is guilty. These really NAI reads aren't typical, since they don't get you any credit for 'being right' down the line (since you weren't actually right; you voted 'correctly' but for the wrong reasons).
2. This is coming right as Jesus has some pressure on him from other players, too; he was, if not the leading vote-getter, in prime position to be when Iki makes his entrance into the thread. If Jesus were his scumbuddy, then Iki is actually committing to bussing Jesus pretty hard with this stance that he takes. It leaves him very little room to abandon ship, and it comes at probably the peak of suspicion on Jesus in the entire thread at that point. It's at the point where the anti-Jesus push had maximum momentum in the thread, which means there are a lot of people who are gonna be looking hard at Iki if he tries to walk it back later. I mention this because...
3. This bus, were it a bus, looks incredibly sloppy. I mean think about it. If you're going to bus a teammate, how do you start off deciding to townread him and then change course mid-post? Bussing is a very deliberate tactic with a lot of internal calculations -- how hard to push, how many escape routes to leave yourself, what arguments to raise and how to raise them, it goes on. You don't just haphazardly decide halfway through a long fabricated reads post to bus your teammate. It just doesn't happen.
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On February 01 2016 13:16 darthfoley wrote:
Did we ever ever a real discussion why Alur was killed and not me, or maybe even Eden? I was townread probably harder than Alur at the time, so the only thing I can think of is that
1) his reads were better than mine
2) mafia thought he was blue
3) both
I can't remember if we just accepted his death as obvi NK, because it surprised me slightly. I'm bad at night kill analysis. There are too many variables.
It could have been that they saw Alur as the biggest threat, it could have been a wifom attempt, it could have been because Alur's reads were crazy good, it could have been a medic dodge (  Eden), or other reasons. If you have any conclusions to draw from it, go for it, but I feel far, far more comfortable in my other reads. Especially in a newbie game I don't feel confident with night kill analysis in wide open circumstances like this, anyway.
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On February 01 2016 07:03 PepperMintTea wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2016 07:00 Trfel wrote:
Just please, please, give scott31337 a chance to be read one way or another. Not doing so is really stupid. Here's what happens He has no knowledge of the game so far He isn't going to go through 70 pages in a detailed manner so he will skim read and come up with something not particularly useful. Just some basic surface stuff. He will still be a massive question mark Jesus was scummy and decided not to play. Scott won't remove that for me so I am lynching him regardless
I have had similar thoughts regarding Jesus. That's why I really don't like posts like this. This is so dismissive from PMT.
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On February 01 2016 10:08 Eden1892 wrote:
My working theory before actually reexamining his reads is that, as I noted initially, the 3-3-3 reads were fabricated. I doubt he townread any of his teammates unless they were widely townread. Probably he left one of them off and null'd the other.
Of course the other thing to note is that he flip flopped on Jesus between his fabricated reads and his 3-3-3 reads. I can't reread that right now but I would bet it will clearly tell us Jesus's alignment.
Based on this theory, if it's right, Trfel is town as well. Looking somewhat likely I think, Trfel wasn't under a lot of pressure at the time so there's not a lot of motive to randomly scumread one of your partners.
Additionally, looking at this:
Scum: Onegu, JesusIncarnate, Tfel
Town: PMT, Darth, Alur
Keep a close eye on: Shape, Tumble, Kuragari
We're already 2/3 of the way toward him having no scum in his town or scum reads. The pattern of "one left off, one null'd" is so typical of mafia, it's hard to imagine this isn't what's going on here.
He also says this:
I went back and read through all of Trfel and Onegu's filters. Based on their posts to each other, I don't think they're both scum. Both come off as scummy, but if one was proven scum, my suspicion toward the other would drop.
Which is interesting. I think a tactic like this is common of newer scum players too -- pair two townies together and say "well they can't both be scum, I would be less suspicious of one if the other flipped scum." Because you know neither one will, you give yourself an out to suspect the 2nd one if the first one gets mislynched.
None of this is ironclad, I know. And I still really dislike a lot of Trfel's approach to this game.
But there's substantial circumstantial evidence pointing toward Trfel being town based on Iki's filter, and Trfel has a couple of things going for him independently that really make me think he's town. He seems to be trying very hard to me in this game, and his posts just feel so sincere to me. I don't know how to describe it, and if someone disagrees here we're probably just gonna have to agree to disagree, because I don't know how to argue this effectively.
There's just enough of a culmination of little things -- Iki's posting about Trfel and the patterns new scum tend to have with how they list and pursue suspects; Trfel's filter length and tone in posting, and effort level -- that push me into thinking Trfel is town.
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Eden, you're really making me doubt my scumread on you 
Bad Eden
I need to think about this more later.
Anyway, @Eden and darthfoley, what do you think about what I brought up about here? Possible association between Tumblewood and Ikidomari.
+ Show Spoiler [@darth] +To clarify, I'm not saying never to use nk analysis and association. I'm saying that if you do so, do it very carefully, because it's so so easy to get incorrect conclusions. You need to consider every possibility, and that a possibility can exist, however unlikely, that points to the wrong thing and just makes your conclusions completely wrong. Including simply "mafia didn't think of this", even if it was the correct thing.
I'm more than willing to discuss, but I don't feel like your generalized statements of what is mafia indicative were correct for why I explained.
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On February 01 2016 13:20 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2016 13:16 darthfoley wrote:
Did we ever ever a real discussion why Alur was killed and not me, or maybe even Eden? I was townread probably harder than Alur at the time, so the only thing I can think of is that
1) his reads were better than mine
2) mafia thought he was blue
3) both
I can't remember if we just accepted his death as obvi NK, because it surprised me slightly. I'm bad at night kill analysis. There are too many variables. it could have been a medic dodge ( Eden)
the fucking dream is so real
On February 01 2016 13:24 darthfoley wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2016 07:03 PepperMintTea wrote:On February 01 2016 07:00 Trfel wrote:
Just please, please, give scott31337 a chance to be read one way or another. Not doing so is really stupid. Here's what happens He has no knowledge of the game so far He isn't going to go through 70 pages in a detailed manner so he will skim read and come up with something not particularly useful. Just some basic surface stuff. He will still be a massive question mark Jesus was scummy and decided not to play. Scott won't remove that for me so I am lynching him regardless I have had similar thoughts regarding Jesus. That's why I really don't like posts like this. This is so dismissive from PMT.
I don't like it either, but I also don't feel like it comes from mafia tbh. It's rather bold.
Plus, and I know this is associative based off of an unproven flip, but if you accept my previous premise that Jesus is town, PMT basically said "I am committing to mislynching this townie no matter what his replacement says." That position is going to be really hard to defend if scott comes in and does something meaningful. Suddenly you're stuck with having to walk this post back, and your reasoning won't be good, or you're deliberately committing to a likely mislynch without a good reason.
It's the kind of somewhat reckless and yet semi-reasonable premise that I would expect a newer town player confident in a scumread to pursue, but not something that would come from mafia.
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EPT
