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On December 13 2015 03:20 GreYMisT wrote:
I did not include any thoughts on you, Ryan, in part because you have been vocal. There is a little more for me to have to figure out and I'd like to not post a read on you until I have.
Isn't this like... idk... supposed to help to get a read on someone? I mean them being vocal..
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Okay, let's blow this wide open.
I believe it is impossible there is two mafia in DarthPunk/RtaniSoul/Rels. Rels has basically drawn himself into a situation where he scumreads both of the other above and it is really hard to naturally back off from it in case he is accusing a scumbuddy. I also don't believe RtaniSoul would accuse DarthPunk for stuff i find out be "not concrete" and actually argue about it vocally when confronted about it in case they were both mafia. So my believe is there is at most 1 mafia in those three people. RtanisSoul looks the most town of those three anyways, and i would say they are about 80% likely to be town.
I believe Damdred is town, and i don't see any reason to believe otherwise.
Which brings me to the following. At this point i am certain there has to be at least one mafia in Greymist/marvellosity. marv is not here, has not posted, so discussing him is waste of time atm. Which is why i am very interested in what Greymist has to say about the other people in this game. Idk, maybe it is just a feeling and doesn't mean anything but i feel like he is kinda "holding back" for some reason?!?! So when you have time, Greymist, could you please share your current thoughts on people. I don't care if the reasons are weak or whatever, since i don't really have any strong reasons for any of my reads other than the one on Damdred, but the fact is you could, and should, give us something to work with.
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On December 13 2015 09:36 GreYMisT wrote:
First I will say that, while I find some conduct of Ryan suspicious, this results from inconsistencies in his behavior. I thought a lot of what he was doing seemed towny, however there are a few things that give me pause.
The first has occurred recently- forgive me for not quoting at the moment - when Ryan said he was sure that there could not be scum between DP/Hydra/ and Rels And was "certain" there was scum between myself and Marv. To begin, I don't like when people categorize like this. I feel like it benefits mafia to arbitrarily put people into categories to empose their viewpoint on the town. That isn't the main reason I didn't like the post, however.
I never said there could not be scum between them. I said i think there is no way BOTH of the scum are between them. I provided analysis on why i reached to the conclusion. I am not arbitary putting people into categories, if you think my analysis is incorrect, please argue about why they are incorrect instead of just creating a narrative on the conclusion.
The problem I have is his sudden change in conviction. Notice before this post he is just asking my opinion, wanting to know what I think of him (I will address this later below). And then, literally the next post he is certain either I or Marv are scum. Also consider that Marv is a guy who has not been here!You cannot be certain that someone is mafia if they have not posted. So basically, Rayn is saying here that he is certain I am mafia. It is this change in attitude, this certainty, and this hiding of his opinion by including Marv in this pairing that aroused my suspicion.
I am not saying it is certain you are mafia. In fact i am far more sure of marv being scum at this point based purely on the fact that he well knows the game has started and has decided to not post anything at all. The conclusion that at least one of you / marv has to be mafia for me is completely logical based on the analysis on other people -- basically it is due to PoE. Again, if you do not agree with this, please point out where i am wrong in my analysis. Then we have something to argue about.
Tbf, you can't just say something is scummy / wrong without actually explaining why it is that way. I feel like i have provided my thought process behind every conclusion i have made in this game -- so it would only be natural for you to actually try to disprove my conclusions if you attack my arguments, no?
Finally, I thought back to Ryan's other posts. They all seemed very towny so I thought to myself: "maybe I'm just chainsaw ing Ryan here, creating a read on him out of spite." Then I noticed 2 minor things which makes me think, perhaps, he could be mafia.
First, the way he jumped onto Rels with Damdred seems a bit rushed and oppertunistic to me. As if he is testing the waters to see if he can get something rolling.
Again, i have already said why i think this is the case. Why is my (and Damdred's) "jump" on Rels "rushed and oppertunistic". I found out Rels' thought process illogical and the things he posted didn't match up with the conclusions he ended up with. I wanted him to elaborate further, and i don't think "that going nowhere" is my fault, since Rels' answer was basically "yeah that's what i think".
Finally, Ryan asking my read of him. This strikes me as odd as well because it appears as though he wants to draw some early fire for an easy opportunity to defend himself through activity. A question like "why didn't you analyze me?!" Has bearing on day 2, but not a quarter into day 1 when information is still being processed.
There are my current thoughts, more to come.
In my opinion this has bearing when you analyze every single other player who has posted that far in the game. I consider it weird because if you are mafia you would either:
1) correctly call me town -- in which case it hinders your mislynch possibilities
2) incorrectly call me mafia -- in which case your logic is not sound in the first place and someone can catch you for it
Furthermore at some point you were saying you didn't have a read on me. But around half of your case (idk.. is this a case?) is based on the timeline when you didn't have a read on me, and is also basically based on everything i did during that time.. How is it possible both of your statements are correct?
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DarthPunk are you still around?
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Where is your read on Rels really based on?
Not everything he has posted really makes sense, but he is aggressive and is able to change tack really quickly. I also kinda like the dissonance between what he is saying and where he is voting. Like that is something really obvious that scum would avoid IMO and reads like someone who does not give a fuck.
Does not give a fuck = Good
I mean like, what do these things mean:
"like the dissonance between what he is saying and where he is voting"
and
" reads like someone who does not give a fuck"
Have you seen Rels' scumplay?
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On December 12 2015 23:18 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 12 2015 14:04 DarthPunk wrote:On December 12 2015 13:58 DarthPunk wrote:OK rayn is town  To elaborate on this. I think that the read that he gave on Damdred was really un-obvious and made a heap of sense which are two things that I don't think that mafia are good at faking, on the surface at least and that usually don;t happen in the same read. Another thing from DP I don't like. He says "rayn is town"; nobody questions him about it; 6 minutes later after rayn ignores this post, he posts an explanation. I could see him being scum waiting for someone to ask for his explanation, then posting it anyway.
On December 12 2015 23:24 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 12 2015 22:36 GreYMisT wrote:
If I'm being honest I have only had time to look at a few past games, but from what I have seen Damdred seems town to me. In his town games he seems willing to talk about other people, whereas in mafia games he only seems to ask questions to people.
I'm not sure about Darthpunk. I would have probably answered his questions differently if I were him, but admittedly that doesn't really mean anything.
I don't have an opinion on anyone else quite yet. It's unusual at least for me, for Marv not to be super active early. But it is just a quarter into the day and he might have changed his marvy ways since I last saw him. In any case, I'll have more detailed opinions later. I think GM is town. I think townies are more likely to admit they don't have an opinion on several people.
Rels do you seriously think these are good basis for reads?
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Goddamn i nedd rsoultin's opinion on this. Halp plz!
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On December 13 2015 19:43 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On December 13 2015 19:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:Where is your read on Rels really based on? Not everything he has posted really makes sense, but he is aggressive and is able to change tack really quickly. I also kinda like the dissonance between what he is saying and where he is voting. Like that is something really obvious that scum would avoid IMO and reads like someone who does not give a fuck.
Does not give a fuck = Good I mean like, what do these things mean: "like the dissonance between what he is saying and where he is voting" and " reads like someone who does not give a fuck" Have you seen Rels' scumplay? No I have not seen his scum play. It is based on him not giving a fuck what he looks like. I think that is a townie trait more than a scum trait.
Well you should probably look at his scumgames then.
Anyways i'm gonna be here properly in like 3-4 hours until the EOD.
Until then:
##vote marvellosity
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On December 13 2015 19:41 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On December 13 2015 08:18 DarthPunk wrote:On December 12 2015 23:18 Rels wrote:On December 12 2015 14:04 DarthPunk wrote:On December 12 2015 13:58 DarthPunk wrote:OK rayn is town To elaborate on this. I think that the read that he gave on Damdred was really un-obvious and made a heap of sense which are two things that I don't think that mafia are good at faking, on the surface at least and that usually don;t happen in the same read. Another thing from DP I don't like. He says "rayn is town"; nobody questions him about it; 6 minutes later after rayn ignores this post, he posts an explanation. I could see him being scum waiting for someone to ask for his explanation, then posting it anyway. Just my posting style. I post in bits. Although I like the pressure. Keep it up! rayn can you confirm this is usual so I don't have to meta him ?
I don't understand why the question is relevant.
I mean, DP is not really a player who you figure out by "I could see him being scum waiting for someone to ask for his explanation, then posting it anyway" (i.e. the way he constructs his posts) if he is scum.
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Could you now explain why those things are scummy?
I am particularly looking for an answer to this post:
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Oops.. this post:
On December 13 2015 18:25 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On December 13 2015 09:36 GreYMisT wrote:
First I will say that, while I find some conduct of Ryan suspicious, this results from inconsistencies in his behavior. I thought a lot of what he was doing seemed towny, however there are a few things that give me pause.
The first has occurred recently- forgive me for not quoting at the moment - when Ryan said he was sure that there could not be scum between DP/Hydra/ and Rels And was "certain" there was scum between myself and Marv. To begin, I don't like when people categorize like this. I feel like it benefits mafia to arbitrarily put people into categories to empose their viewpoint on the town. That isn't the main reason I didn't like the post, however. I never said there could not be scum between them. I said i think there is no way BOTH of the scum are between them. I provided analysis on why i reached to the conclusion. I am not arbitary putting people into categories, if you think my analysis is incorrect, please argue about why they are incorrect instead of just creating a narrative on the conclusion. Show nested quote +The problem I have is his sudden change in conviction. Notice before this post he is just asking my opinion, wanting to know what I think of him (I will address this later below). And then, literally the next post he is certain either I or Marv are scum. Also consider that Marv is a guy who has not been here!You cannot be certain that someone is mafia if they have not posted. So basically, Rayn is saying here that he is certain I am mafia. It is this change in attitude, this certainty, and this hiding of his opinion by including Marv in this pairing that aroused my suspicion. I am not saying it is certain you are mafia. In fact i am far more sure of marv being scum at this point based purely on the fact that he well knows the game has started and has decided to not post anything at all. The conclusion that at least one of you / marv has to be mafia for me is completely logical based on the analysis on other people -- basically it is due to PoE. Again, if you do not agree with this, please point out where i am wrong in my analysis. Then we have something to argue about. Tbf, you can't just say something is scummy / wrong without actually explaining why it is that way. I feel like i have provided my thought process behind every conclusion i have made in this game -- so it would only be natural for you to actually try to disprove my conclusions if you attack my arguments, no? Show nested quote +Finally, I thought back to Ryan's other posts. They all seemed very towny so I thought to myself: "maybe I'm just chainsaw ing Ryan here, creating a read on him out of spite." Then I noticed 2 minor things which makes me think, perhaps, he could be mafia.
First, the way he jumped onto Rels with Damdred seems a bit rushed and oppertunistic to me. As if he is testing the waters to see if he can get something rolling. Again, i have already said why i think this is the case. Why is my (and Damdred's) "jump" on Rels "rushed and oppertunistic". I found out Rels' thought process illogical and the things he posted didn't match up with the conclusions he ended up with. I wanted him to elaborate further, and i don't think "that going nowhere" is my fault, since Rels' answer was basically "yeah that's what i think". Show nested quote +Finally, Ryan asking my read of him. This strikes me as odd as well because it appears as though he wants to draw some early fire for an easy opportunity to defend himself through activity. A question like "why didn't you analyze me?!" Has bearing on day 2, but not a quarter into day 1 when information is still being processed.
There are my current thoughts, more to come. In my opinion this has bearing when you analyze every single other player who has posted that far in the game. I consider it weird because if you are mafia you would either: 1) correctly call me town -- in which case it hinders your mislynch possibilities 2) incorrectly call me mafia -- in which case your logic is not sound in the first place and someone can catch you for it Furthermore at some point you were saying you didn't have a read on me. But around half of your case (idk.. is this a case?) is based on the timeline when you didn't have a read on me, and is also basically based on everything i did during that time.. How is it possible both of your statements are correct?
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In fact my points (1) and (2) are connected. And as per what i actually said it makes perfect sense for me to PoE one or two mafia into you and marvellosity. So basically, when you correctly read my point (1), it should automatically cancel what you said on your point (2), since i very clearly even said i am NOT sure if you are mafia, i didn't even call you mafia. I clearly said it is a reason to look further into you, since i cannot look into marv, as he is not posting.
Town rayn would only care about my opinion of him if he wants to see how I conduct my analysis or wants me to give a bearing on how something has gone in the game.
See, that was the point. My problem regarding this is not really the fact that you didn't have a read on me at that point, i don't think that is necessarily scummy. My problem is that WHEN you actually said you have a read on me, about 50% of the read is based on my actions that happened during the time you said you don't have a read on me...
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![[image loading]](http://i68.tinypic.com/smrue1.jpg)
See, i can't legit understand the arrows with the questionmarks.
You had said, after i had done those things that you do not have a read on me.
Later on, when you express your scumread on me, part of the reasoning is based on the time BEFORE you said you had no read on me.
So, i can't really figure it out why you, as town, would say you don't have a read on me if i have already done something scummy. Or if you re-read and came to a different conclusion afterwards why did you not clearly point that out then?
I am talking about these things here:
First, the way he jumped onto Rels with Damdred seems a bit rushed and oppertunistic to me. As if he is testing the waters to see if he can get something rolling.
Finally, Ryan asking my read of him. This strikes me as odd as well because it appears as though he wants to draw some early fire for an easy opportunity to defend himself through activity. A question like "why didn't you analyze me?!" Has bearing on day 2, but not a quarter into day 1 when information is still being processed.
Both of these things happened before you made this post:
On December 13 2015 03:20 GreYMisT wrote:
I did not include any thoughts on you, Ryan, in part because you have been vocal. There is a little more for me to have to figure out and I'd like to not post a read on you until I have.
...where you literally state you do not have a read on me.
The rest of your case i consider answered properly because it is based on you misreading one of my posts, no?
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On December 14 2015 02:13 RtaniSoul wrote:
As scum, it tends to resemble more of a very precocious toddler trying to force a triangle through a circle-shaped hole.
wow, such rude 
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Alright. I guess that is possible.
Do you think your analysis still stands?
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On December 14 2015 04:32 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On December 13 2015 01:05 Damdred wrote:
Useless Marv is scum sometimes but I'm still not following why you would rather push a player who you have no read on over a sure scum read to you. i can tell you why they're mafia together
did you read what i wrote about Rels/DP interaction and Rels calling him mafia and then placing his vote on you?
Do you think Rels would do that as scum with him? Why would he do that as scum with him? In case one of them gets lynched that is going to be the first thing that jumps out and at the time there was no guarantee of you getting here this late.
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fucking fuck.. I have no idea what to do.
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I really believe Rels is mafia over DarthPunk if that is the case...
It's really hard for me to believe him having the reads for the reasoning he has as town.
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The problem is Rels plays super fucking dirty as scum. He just doesn't get caught because he outspeaks everyone. Last game as scum he made a case on me where he said i was scum because of meta which he didn't have in the first place...
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EPT
