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On December 04 2015 08:43 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 08:35 The Shining wrote:On December 04 2015 08:20 Trfel wrote:On December 04 2015 08:08 Trfel wrote:
Hrm.
My initial reaction is that this means that less active players / "under the radar" players are mafia.
DoYouHas
The Shining
disformation
Fecalfeast NocturneMage is right, Fidei86 should be added to this list. I really don't know about Half the Sky. It's very hard for me to separate the play from the cold/sickness/whatever. I'll definitely take another look, though. Tempted to lynch one of Half the Sky/NocturneMage and then the other if they flip town, but that seems bad; the scum should be able to be found without having to do that. I'm going to assume for now that NocturneMage is good enough as town that he wouldn't get this wrong, for simplicity's sake, but I'll re-evaluate this assumption when he makes his case. But you think NM/MD slot is scum...NM called your case bad and you had no response to it except to list NM as scum once more, in what would've been your legacy post had you been shot. You left a super wifomy post laying around since you weren't NKd. The fact only Damdred died makes me think there is no Vig but you expected to be Vig shot. Now you're "tempted" to lynch one of HtS and NM. And your had a list of 4 including me when all of those were your town reads/leans. What about the Damdred NK makes your NM read null enough to change your entire tone and scumreads? Was waiting for someone to ask that. Was hoping that no one asked that  I'm town. I'm the most vocal person in the thread (by number of posts, not thread influence). My second strongest scum read is Damdred, who mafia knows is town, and I've been suspicious of him throughout the game. Mafia ought to know that I'm not going to reverse my read on Damdred. So why does mafia shoot Damdred? (first of all, I know that Damdred is a great player, please don't misunderstand; but being a great player doesn't really help you when there's some bull-headed moron who is going to get you lynched or stop town from progressing at all while trying to do so) I looked through Damdred's filter, and I didn't see any scum reads. I checked for scum reads on DoYouHas and Half the Sky, two players who I thought might be particularly inclined to shoot Damdred if they were scum; he basically didn't mention them at all. Thus, the only really noteworthy read in Damdred's filter is his not wanting to lynch NocturneMage (not exactly sure if it was a townread or a not wanting to lynch read, but it's the same for this purpose). If NocturneMage is mafia, there's no way he shoots Damdred here. And the night kill for WIFOM reasons is bad because mafia would have been in an extremely good position with me scumreading Damdred. To be honest, the night kill suggests to me that mafia messed up. Not Damdred's fault at all, my fault, but I really don't think that mafia should kill Damdred. I would be first think of being suspicious of Palmar and Rels, two players who I might have considered for the night kill above Damdred, but I think they would just let me mislynch Damdred or lose the game for town by trying. Perhaps Palmar is an exception, since I don't think he was here when I pushed my case on Damdred, but still, Damdred was strongly townreading Palmar. That's why my tentative conclusion is that mafia is more likely to be in the less active group that I mentioned. The Shining is included in that group partially because Damdred has an extremely good read on The Shining, and so despite Damdred townreading The Shining for now, I can see The Shining as mafia wanting to get rid of Damdred. But the biggest reason for the night kill is probably that Damdred didn't think that NocturneMage is mafia. Which is extremely strong. That combined with me being wrong on Damdred (partially association, partially doubting my read accuracy) makes me think that it's more likely that NocturneMage is town.
Your last scum game, you scummed, cased and shot Geript N1. This game you scummed, cased Damdred N1 and now he's NKd. This is such am obvious similarity that I'm almost inclined to think it's too bad to be scummy but this explanation is a bit long and contradictory, too.
The NM not wanting to shoot Damdred logic is flawed. Especially if he had him as a townread, I'll have to go back to that. I personally as scum have shot Damdred before after he townread me to keep that read immortal, and I know others have NKd people that were TRing them before they had time to revisit that read.
You also think that Damdred has an extremely good read on me, and towned me, so I'd kill him for it? This is a contradiction because you say its exactly why NM WOULDNT kill him for it. Are you saying I'm scum and scared he'd flip his read on me so I shot him before he could? Then why does that same situation make me scum but makes NM town?
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I was wrong, okay, let me be T.T This is embarrassing enough as is.
@Fidei86, yeah I can definitely see that with regards to LightningStrike at end of day. The "time to bleed town rainbows" quote struck me by surprise, and some of his read changes between End of Day and the start of Night 1 don't quite make sense, even from the "extreme survival and extremely mad" perspective. I'm still very hesitant to lynch LightningStrike at this time, though... Honestly, I'd most expect him to play like that if Damdred were the scum telling him what to do. But that obviously didn't happen.
I'll check his filter later. I guess LightningStrike also counts as a "lower activity / under the radar" player ever since the deadline, and I could see him shooting Damdred.
Bleh.
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On December 04 2015 08:47 Fidei86 wrote:
I actually think an LS Dani team makes a hell of a lot of sense here. LS has given us no reason post lynch to think he's anything other than town (deadline thing is terrible). Dani is in the thread desperately trying to open the door to his non-lynch, for no apparent reason, and despite the fact SHE IS VOTING FOR HIM.
The is a bad association, not just because they are unflipped.
The problem with HtS's EoD isn't what you are saying here. The problem is that her sentiment and action don't match. Her sentiment is that she has major doubts that the lynch is a good one. Her action is to stay on the wagon when she has plenty of reasons, based on her own reads, to go for another lynch on me, kush, or moosy. This is positioning for a townflip while doing nothing substantial to stop it.
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On December 04 2015 08:51 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 08:43 Trfel wrote:On December 04 2015 08:35 The Shining wrote:On December 04 2015 08:20 Trfel wrote:On December 04 2015 08:08 Trfel wrote:
Hrm.
My initial reaction is that this means that less active players / "under the radar" players are mafia.
DoYouHas
The Shining
disformation
Fecalfeast NocturneMage is right, Fidei86 should be added to this list. I really don't know about Half the Sky. It's very hard for me to separate the play from the cold/sickness/whatever. I'll definitely take another look, though. Tempted to lynch one of Half the Sky/NocturneMage and then the other if they flip town, but that seems bad; the scum should be able to be found without having to do that. I'm going to assume for now that NocturneMage is good enough as town that he wouldn't get this wrong, for simplicity's sake, but I'll re-evaluate this assumption when he makes his case. But you think NM/MD slot is scum...NM called your case bad and you had no response to it except to list NM as scum once more, in what would've been your legacy post had you been shot. You left a super wifomy post laying around since you weren't NKd. The fact only Damdred died makes me think there is no Vig but you expected to be Vig shot. Now you're "tempted" to lynch one of HtS and NM. And your had a list of 4 including me when all of those were your town reads/leans. What about the Damdred NK makes your NM read null enough to change your entire tone and scumreads? Was waiting for someone to ask that. Was hoping that no one asked that I'm town. I'm the most vocal person in the thread (by number of posts, not thread influence). My second strongest scum read is Damdred, who mafia knows is town, and I've been suspicious of him throughout the game. Mafia ought to know that I'm not going to reverse my read on Damdred. So why does mafia shoot Damdred? (first of all, I know that Damdred is a great player, please don't misunderstand; but being a great player doesn't really help you when there's some bull-headed moron who is going to get you lynched or stop town from progressing at all while trying to do so) I looked through Damdred's filter, and I didn't see any scum reads. I checked for scum reads on DoYouHas and Half the Sky, two players who I thought might be particularly inclined to shoot Damdred if they were scum; he basically didn't mention them at all. Thus, the only really noteworthy read in Damdred's filter is his not wanting to lynch NocturneMage (not exactly sure if it was a townread or a not wanting to lynch read, but it's the same for this purpose). If NocturneMage is mafia, there's no way he shoots Damdred here. And the night kill for WIFOM reasons is bad because mafia would have been in an extremely good position with me scumreading Damdred. To be honest, the night kill suggests to me that mafia messed up. Not Damdred's fault at all, my fault, but I really don't think that mafia should kill Damdred. I would be first think of being suspicious of Palmar and Rels, two players who I might have considered for the night kill above Damdred, but I think they would just let me mislynch Damdred or lose the game for town by trying. Perhaps Palmar is an exception, since I don't think he was here when I pushed my case on Damdred, but still, Damdred was strongly townreading Palmar. That's why my tentative conclusion is that mafia is more likely to be in the less active group that I mentioned. The Shining is included in that group partially because Damdred has an extremely good read on The Shining, and so despite Damdred townreading The Shining for now, I can see The Shining as mafia wanting to get rid of Damdred. But the biggest reason for the night kill is probably that Damdred didn't think that NocturneMage is mafia. Which is extremely strong. That combined with me being wrong on Damdred (partially association, partially doubting my read accuracy) makes me think that it's more likely that NocturneMage is town. Your last scum game, you scummed, cased and shot Geript N1. This game you scummed, cased Damdred N1 and now he's NKd. This is such am obvious similarity that I'm almost inclined to think it's too bad to be scummy but this explanation is a bit long and contradictory, too. The NM not wanting to shoot Damdred logic is flawed. Especially if he had him as a townread, I'll have to go back to that. I personally as scum have shot Damdred before after he townread me to keep that read immortal, and I know others have NKd people that were TRing them before they had time to revisit that read. You also think that Damdred has an extremely good read on me, and towned me, so I'd kill him for it? This is a contradiction because you say its exactly why NM WOULDNT kill him for it. Are you saying I'm scum and scared he'd flip his read on me so I shot him before he could? Then why does that same situation make me scum but makes NM town?
He also posted a lot of "why is nobody talking/listening to my reads" in that game...
On December 04 2015 04:14 Trfel wrote:
I don't understand.
This is basically a 99.9% scumread with extremely few possible holes, if any.
I've explained it in basically as much detail as possible and explained why all of the counterarguments are wrong.
Why does no one care?!?!
So that, too, sounds kinda familiar...
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Canada11355 Posts
On December 04 2015 08:43 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 08:35 The Shining wrote:On December 04 2015 08:20 Trfel wrote:On December 04 2015 08:08 Trfel wrote:
Hrm.
My initial reaction is that this means that less active players / "under the radar" players are mafia.
DoYouHas
The Shining
disformation
Fecalfeast NocturneMage is right, Fidei86 should be added to this list. I really don't know about Half the Sky. It's very hard for me to separate the play from the cold/sickness/whatever. I'll definitely take another look, though. Tempted to lynch one of Half the Sky/NocturneMage and then the other if they flip town, but that seems bad; the scum should be able to be found without having to do that. I'm going to assume for now that NocturneMage is good enough as town that he wouldn't get this wrong, for simplicity's sake, but I'll re-evaluate this assumption when he makes his case. But you think NM/MD slot is scum...NM called your case bad and you had no response to it except to list NM as scum once more, in what would've been your legacy post had you been shot. You left a super wifomy post laying around since you weren't NKd. The fact only Damdred died makes me think there is no Vig but you expected to be Vig shot. Now you're "tempted" to lynch one of HtS and NM. And your had a list of 4 including me when all of those were your town reads/leans. What about the Damdred NK makes your NM read null enough to change your entire tone and scumreads? Was waiting for someone to ask that. Was hoping that no one asked that I'm town. I'm the most vocal person in the thread (by number of posts, not thread influence). My second strongest scum read is Damdred, who mafia knows is town, and I've been suspicious of him throughout the game. Mafia ought to know that I'm not going to reverse my read on Damdred. So why does mafia shoot Damdred? (first of all, I know that Damdred is a great player, please don't misunderstand; but being a great player doesn't really help you when there's some bull-headed moron who is going to get you lynched or stop town from progressing at all while trying to do so) I looked through Damdred's filter, and I didn't see any scum reads. I checked for scum reads on DoYouHas and Half the Sky, two players who I thought might be particularly inclined to shoot Damdred if they were scum; he basically didn't mention them at all. Thus, the only really noteworthy read in Damdred's filter is his not wanting to lynch NocturneMage (not exactly sure if it was a townread or a not wanting to lynch read, but it's the same for this purpose). If NocturneMage is mafia, there's no way he shoots Damdred here. And the night kill for WIFOM reasons is bad because mafia would have been in an extremely good position with me scumreading Damdred. To be honest, the night kill suggests to me that mafia messed up. Not Damdred's fault at all, my fault, but I really don't think that mafia should kill Damdred. I would be first think of being suspicious of Palmar and Rels, two players who I might have considered for the night kill above Damdred, but I think they would just let me mislynch Damdred or lose the game for town by trying. Perhaps Palmar is an exception, since I don't think he was here when I pushed my case on Damdred, but still, Damdred was strongly townreading Palmar. That's why my tentative conclusion is that mafia is more likely to be in the less active group that I mentioned. The Shining is included in that group partially because Damdred has an extremely good read on The Shining, and so despite Damdred townreading The Shining for now, I can see The Shining as mafia wanting to get rid of Damdred. But the biggest reason for the night kill is probably that Damdred didn't think that NocturneMage is mafia. Which is extremely strong. That combined with me being wrong on Damdred (partially association, partially doubting my read accuracy) makes me think that it's more likely that NocturneMage is town.
So, how do you explain your case? I'm confused, how do you know that mafia killed damdred because of his nm read?
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On December 04 2015 08:55 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 08:47 Fidei86 wrote:
I actually think an LS Dani team makes a hell of a lot of sense here. LS has given us no reason post lynch to think he's anything other than town (deadline thing is terrible). Dani is in the thread desperately trying to open the door to his non-lynch, for no apparent reason, and despite the fact SHE IS VOTING FOR HIM. The is a bad association, not just because they are unflipped. The problem with HtS's EoD isn't what you are saying here. The problem is that her sentiment and action don't match. Her sentiment is that she has major doubts that the lynch is a good one. Her action is to stay on the wagon when she has plenty of reasons, based on her own reads, to go for another lynch on me, kush, or moosy. This is positioning for a townflip while doing nothing substantial to stop it.
Heh, that actually makes a lot more sense than my point. Damn. What was HTS' read of Kush before EOD *goes to filter*
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Reposting this since Rels drowned it out with his aggression towards me last night. Seems relevant.
On December 03 2015 14:52 DoYouHas wrote:
1. HtS padded her filter with a lot of recapping and clarifying and meta that doesn't lead to conclusions.
2. HtS spreads around quite a bit of suspicion but does not actually push anyone or really take the lead on anything.
- She scumleans me, plants her vote, and then does nothing to see me lynched. According to #555 I was actually more of a null read and her suspicion and vote were to get me to post more. There is no follow through here, either pressure wise or lynchwise.
- She scumleans kush, points out some stuff that she doesn't like, and then does nothing about it until shenanigans.
3. In spite of all her RL issues she has been plenty active, she is just not really doing anything except engaging Trfel and playing the middle ground.
4. Her play towards LS is highly suspicious. The way I understand it, HtS knows LS better than most. She was reading him critically before any of us and moved him towards null/scum first. She seems unwilling to lynch LS... until Damdred and Palmar take the lead. Then she provides a weak additional reason to not like LS (#627) and switches votes. Does she feel the need to justify her switch beyond just agreeing with Damdred and Palmar?
Here is the important part. Right after LS re-enters the thread super emotional, HtS starts positioning for a townflip and distancing herself from responsibility for the lynch.
LS is someone she knows better than most. She immediately starts doubting the wagon after he reenters the thread. Her response is, "quick! LS, prove to me you are town!" and "crap, I can't get a good enough sense of his meta in 20 minutes to derail this thing!". With the level of doubt she displayed on the wagon she was helping push she should have been among the first to push onto another candidate. Whether that is me or kush, which would make sense for her, or even just Moosy. Any of those plays makes sense for HtS. Instead, she sits on wagon she doesn't like for 30 minutes and only switches when somebody else will get the blame for starting a counterwagon, incidentally, onto another townie.
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On December 04 2015 08:51 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 08:43 Trfel wrote:On December 04 2015 08:35 The Shining wrote:On December 04 2015 08:20 Trfel wrote:On December 04 2015 08:08 Trfel wrote:
Hrm.
My initial reaction is that this means that less active players / "under the radar" players are mafia.
DoYouHas
The Shining
disformation
Fecalfeast NocturneMage is right, Fidei86 should be added to this list. I really don't know about Half the Sky. It's very hard for me to separate the play from the cold/sickness/whatever. I'll definitely take another look, though. Tempted to lynch one of Half the Sky/NocturneMage and then the other if they flip town, but that seems bad; the scum should be able to be found without having to do that. I'm going to assume for now that NocturneMage is good enough as town that he wouldn't get this wrong, for simplicity's sake, but I'll re-evaluate this assumption when he makes his case. But you think NM/MD slot is scum...NM called your case bad and you had no response to it except to list NM as scum once more, in what would've been your legacy post had you been shot. You left a super wifomy post laying around since you weren't NKd. The fact only Damdred died makes me think there is no Vig but you expected to be Vig shot. Now you're "tempted" to lynch one of HtS and NM. And your had a list of 4 including me when all of those were your town reads/leans. What about the Damdred NK makes your NM read null enough to change your entire tone and scumreads? Was waiting for someone to ask that. Was hoping that no one asked that I'm town. I'm the most vocal person in the thread (by number of posts, not thread influence). My second strongest scum read is Damdred, who mafia knows is town, and I've been suspicious of him throughout the game. Mafia ought to know that I'm not going to reverse my read on Damdred. So why does mafia shoot Damdred? (first of all, I know that Damdred is a great player, please don't misunderstand; but being a great player doesn't really help you when there's some bull-headed moron who is going to get you lynched or stop town from progressing at all while trying to do so) I looked through Damdred's filter, and I didn't see any scum reads. I checked for scum reads on DoYouHas and Half the Sky, two players who I thought might be particularly inclined to shoot Damdred if they were scum; he basically didn't mention them at all. Thus, the only really noteworthy read in Damdred's filter is his not wanting to lynch NocturneMage (not exactly sure if it was a townread or a not wanting to lynch read, but it's the same for this purpose). If NocturneMage is mafia, there's no way he shoots Damdred here. And the night kill for WIFOM reasons is bad because mafia would have been in an extremely good position with me scumreading Damdred. To be honest, the night kill suggests to me that mafia messed up. Not Damdred's fault at all, my fault, but I really don't think that mafia should kill Damdred. I would be first think of being suspicious of Palmar and Rels, two players who I might have considered for the night kill above Damdred, but I think they would just let me mislynch Damdred or lose the game for town by trying. Perhaps Palmar is an exception, since I don't think he was here when I pushed my case on Damdred, but still, Damdred was strongly townreading Palmar. That's why my tentative conclusion is that mafia is more likely to be in the less active group that I mentioned. The Shining is included in that group partially because Damdred has an extremely good read on The Shining, and so despite Damdred townreading The Shining for now, I can see The Shining as mafia wanting to get rid of Damdred. But the biggest reason for the night kill is probably that Damdred didn't think that NocturneMage is mafia. Which is extremely strong. That combined with me being wrong on Damdred (partially association, partially doubting my read accuracy) makes me think that it's more likely that NocturneMage is town. Your last scum game, you scummed, cased and shot Geript N1. This game you scummed, cased Damdred N1 and now he's NKd. This is such am obvious similarity that I'm almost inclined to think it's too bad to be scummy but this explanation is a bit long and contradictory, too. The NM not wanting to shoot Damdred logic is flawed. Especially if he had him as a townread, I'll have to go back to that. I personally as scum have shot Damdred before after he townread me to keep that read immortal, and I know others have NKd people that were TRing them before they had time to revisit that read. You also think that Damdred has an extremely good read on me, and towned me, so I'd kill him for it? This is a contradiction because you say its exactly why NM WOULDNT kill him for it. Are you saying I'm scum and scared he'd flip his read on me so I shot him before he could? Then why does that same situation make me scum but makes NM town? I don't think that my reasoning is flawed because in this case, Damdred would actively block the NocturneMage wagon and look for alternatives. I mean, it's possible that NocturneMage would shoot Damdred, however I think that's less likely. I decided to help resolve this by looking at Half the Sky for a bit (assuming for the moment that they aren't both scum and that if NocturneMage is right on Half the Sky, he's very likely town), and Half the Sky seems to be fairly likely scum, which makes me think that NocturneMage may be more likely town.
It's different for you and NocturneMage because he was about to be under a ton of pressure and you weren't. I'm not saying that you are definitely scum because of the night kill, but it makes me a little bit more suspicious of you (and that was a town lean before).
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On December 04 2015 08:39 Fidei86 wrote:
I'm not scum. One thing I was thinking is that I actually pinged Dani out a while ago for the same sort of thing Alex is saying now. That's not to say that scum can't bus a little ... Obviously I didn't push Dani that hard. But if Alex agreed with my reasoning, surely it makes me unlikely to be her scum buddy?
Also if I was scum I would 100% have shot Dani. Gameplay regardless, scum Fidei shoots HTS n1 every game. Every time. So there's that.
No. This is false. Soft pushing is an indicator that you are likely mafia if/when she flips. You didn't go anywhere. She is my first priority but you're next after her 
Also last point is false, you endgamed her once, so no you didn't. That's a terrible metric anyhow as nightkills are generally team decisions.
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BTW, this is the second time everyone ends up agreeing with me and I'm still on most of the scumlists. -_-
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I also don't like Trfels turning around on this either.
What the hell are we using WIFOM arguments for?
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On December 04 2015 09:03 DoYouHas wrote:
BTW, this is the second time everyone ends up agreeing with me and I'm still on most of the scumlists. -_-
I'm not scumreading you. :/
I can't speak for everyone else.
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On December 04 2015 09:03 NocturneMage wrote:
I also don't like Trfels turning around on this either.
What the hell are we using WIFOM arguments for? Because they're really darn accurate. Night kill analysis is amazing.
@Fecalfeast, why else would Damdred be killed? The NocturneMage read seems to be by far the most likely. And that wasn't the only reason that I mentioned that the night kill makes me want to lynch NocturneMage less.
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Canada11355 Posts
On December 04 2015 09:07 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 09:03 NocturneMage wrote:
I also don't like Trfels turning around on this either.
What the hell are we using WIFOM arguments for? Because they're really darn accurate. Night kill analysis is amazing. @Fecalfeast, why else would Damdred be killed? The NocturneMage read seems to be by far the most likely. And that wasn't the only reason that I mentioned that the night kill makes me want to lynch NocturneMage less.
I don't know why damdred was killed and I'm saying that you don't either
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On December 04 2015 08:55 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 08:47 Fidei86 wrote:
I actually think an LS Dani team makes a hell of a lot of sense here. LS has given us no reason post lynch to think he's anything other than town (deadline thing is terrible). Dani is in the thread desperately trying to open the door to his non-lynch, for no apparent reason, and despite the fact SHE IS VOTING FOR HIM. The is a bad association, not just because they are unflipped. The problem with HtS's EoD isn't what you are saying here. The problem is that her sentiment and action don't match. Her sentiment is that she has major doubts that the lynch is a good one. Her action is to stay on the wagon when she has plenty of reasons, based on her own reads, to go for another lynch on me, kush, or moosy. This is positioning for a townflip while doing nothing substantial to stop it.
I see what you are saying here but there are people here saying she is town for that, and there are proven cases of her doing this as town when she doesn't have an alternative scumread. She has mislynched people as town/town-oriented third party trying to do stuff like this. The problem is where she actually goes and why. She would have mislynched LS if it was in her best interest to mislynch him, the reason she went to kush is because kush was scumreading her.
This is what I was saying before, she has a track record of wanting to kill people who want her dead. The reason I asked you before what her role was in the lynch is because generally her play as mafia is to do one of two things - make a bunch of cases and do nothing with it, or ferret people and do nothing with it, or she WILL push someone but she won't do it until ridiculously close to end of cycle.
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On December 04 2015 09:00 NocturneMage wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 08:39 Fidei86 wrote:
I'm not scum. One thing I was thinking is that I actually pinged Dani out a while ago for the same sort of thing Alex is saying now. That's not to say that scum can't bus a little ... Obviously I didn't push Dani that hard. But if Alex agreed with my reasoning, surely it makes me unlikely to be her scum buddy?
Also if I was scum I would 100% have shot Dani. Gameplay regardless, scum Fidei shoots HTS n1 every game. Every time. So there's that. No. This is false. Soft pushing is an indicator that you are likely mafia if/when she flips. You didn't go anywhere. She is my first priority but you're next after her Also last point is false, you endgamed her once, so no you didn't. That's a terrible metric anyhow as nightkills are generally team decisions.
I'm not sure you can call it "end gaming" when the game ends on N3 with a 6 man soup. And for the record, I did try and NK her in that game but Rels overrode me (I think).
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On December 04 2015 09:07 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 09:03 NocturneMage wrote:
I also don't like Trfels turning around on this either.
What the hell are we using WIFOM arguments for? Because they're really darn accurate. Night kill analysis is amazing. @Fecalfeast, why else would Damdred be killed? The NocturneMage read seems to be by far the most likely. And that wasn't the only reason that I mentioned that the night kill makes me want to lynch NocturneMage less.
It could be as simple as Damdred is a solid town player, and was read as town by the majority of the players. He clearly had influence as evidenced by the LS wagon. That is enough to make him a good kill. His reads are worth more now that we know for sure he was town, and should be considered carefully, but there is plenty to make him a good nightkill beyond his reads. (Sorry, I know you wanted FF to answer)
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It's a N1 NK and we don't even know the setup. Speculating on a N1 NK is bad, especially when we have 0 scumflips and therefore 0 information to work with. It could've been for his reads, it could've been blue hunting, it could've been fear, it could've been anything. I don't see why Trfel is so sure that one scenario(his NM read) is any more likely than any other. If anything, Damdred being shot when one of his posts was "NM be my town buddy, we've been great together before" could realistically be NM shooting Damdred before he can realize he isn't the town buddy he's used to. I'm not saying NM is scum here but since Trfel said he looked at Damdreds filter, its interesting he didn't pick up on this. That is Damdred definitely implying he will be reading NM closely.
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On December 04 2015 09:09 Fecalfeast wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2015 09:07 Trfel wrote:On December 04 2015 09:03 NocturneMage wrote:
I also don't like Trfels turning around on this either.
What the hell are we using WIFOM arguments for? Because they're really darn accurate. Night kill analysis is amazing. @Fecalfeast, why else would Damdred be killed? The NocturneMage read seems to be by far the most likely. And that wasn't the only reason that I mentioned that the night kill makes me want to lynch NocturneMage less. I don't know why damdred was killed and I'm saying that you don't either
This
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Also people making the argument that she is town because she is tryharding, just no. Hell no.
Daniele plays to win as either alignment. Period. She has been sick before and has fought for wincon as either alignment. As town, as mafia, as third party, end of.
Her first mafia game, she passed out d1 (not playing mafia but for other reasons), and went on to carry the scumteam.
Her second mafia game, she got food poisoning d1 and her team won after she was able to get a few people lynched.
In Personality Mafia (town), she had to take breaks during end of cycle trying to get her scumreads off, and she did, she was killed night 1, but she got off some great reads that resulted in the subsequent deaths of those she was scumreading.
In her second town game - Carol - she was jailkeeper and she had a lot of real life issues that game. She brought home the game with a well timed claim despite the mafia tryharding to get her mislynched.
Don't townread anyone regardless of anything happening out of game to them.
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EPT
