EPTI am also pretty sure Fidei is mafia because he is playing nothing like his previous games, but I am so confident in Dani being mafia I am willing to get mislynched to prove my point. This is part meta, part (anti-)personality, part voting analysis (her end of cycle behaviour was really bad), and part psychological (motive-based). I'll try and put together a case as best as I can though so that you can understand it.
Dark Tournament Mini Mafia - Page 51
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
I am also pretty sure Fidei is mafia because he is playing nothing like his previous games, but I am so confident in Dani being mafia I am willing to get mislynched to prove my point. This is part meta, part (anti-)personality, part voting analysis (her end of cycle behaviour was really bad), and part psychological (motive-based). I'll try and put together a case as best as I can though so that you can understand it. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 04 2015 08:12 NocturneMage wrote: ##vote Half the Sky I am also pretty sure Fidei is mafia because he is playing nothing like his previous games, but I am so confident in Dani being mafia I am willing to get mislynched to prove my point. This is part meta, part (anti-)personality, part voting analysis (her end of cycle behaviour was really bad), and part psychological (motive-based). I'll try and put together a case as best as I can though so that you can understand it. Yeah, a more detailed explanation of that would be great. Also, GG Damdy.  | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 04 2015 08:08 Trfel wrote: NocturneMage is right, Fidei86 should be added to this list.Hrm. My initial reaction is that this means that less active players / "under the radar" players are mafia. DoYouHas The Shining disformation Fecalfeast I really don't know about Half the Sky. It's very hard for me to separate the play from the cold/sickness/whatever. I'll definitely take another look, though. Tempted to lynch one of Half the Sky/NocturneMage and then the other if they flip town, but that seems bad; the scum should be able to be found without having to do that. I'm going to assume for now that NocturneMage is good enough as town that he wouldn't get this wrong, for simplicity's sake, but I'll re-evaluate this assumption when he makes his case. | ||
Fecalfeast
Canada11355 Posts
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On December 04 2015 08:20 Trfel wrote: NocturneMage is right, Fidei86 should be added to this list. I really don't know about Half the Sky. It's very hard for me to separate the play from the cold/sickness/whatever. I'll definitely take another look, though. Tempted to lynch one of Half the Sky/NocturneMage and then the other if they flip town, but that seems bad; the scum should be able to be found without having to do that. I'm going to assume for now that NocturneMage is good enough as town that he wouldn't get this wrong, for simplicity's sake, but I'll re-evaluate this assumption when he makes his case. I'm actually almost completely sold on this case. If Dani wasn't having an awful time with the sickness, I would be very confident she was mafia. The key points for me are: 1. Tone. Her posts have a lifeless quality, but it's not clear she actually believe anything she's posting. I mentioned this earlier. 2. At EOD she was 'voting' for LS but wasn't looking for another candidate, then moved onto kush. I've done multiple EOD's with her and usually she's actively trying to solve. It's not clear that she was trying to solve. Both of those things could be explained by themselves viz the sickness, but both of them together, combined with her actually okay activity? I think Alex might well be right on this. I need to read her filter more carefully, but that's for tomorrow. Also can we have a new rule that only people who didn't blindly follow me into the EOD lynch can call me scum? (Okay, MD and Trfel did not follow me, but that precludes a decent chunk of the rest of you). | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
On December 04 2015 08:20 Trfel wrote: NocturneMage is right, Fidei86 should be added to this list. I really don't know about Half the Sky. It's very hard for me to separate the play from the cold/sickness/whatever. I'll definitely take another look, though. Tempted to lynch one of Half the Sky/NocturneMage and then the other if they flip town, but that seems bad; the scum should be able to be found without having to do that. I'm going to assume for now that NocturneMage is good enough as town that he wouldn't get this wrong, for simplicity's sake, but I'll re-evaluate this assumption when he makes his case. But you think NM/MD slot is scum...NM called your case bad and you had no response to it except to list NM as scum once more, in what would've been your legacy post had you been shot. You left a super wifomy post laying around since you weren't NKd. The fact only Damdred died makes me think there is no Vig but you expected to be Vig shot. Now you're "tempted" to lynch one of HtS and NM. And your had a list of 4 including me when all of those were your town reads/leans. What about the Damdred NK makes your NM read null enough to change your entire tone and scumreads? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 04 2015 08:31 Fidei86 wrote: Yeah, I'm currently thinking that maybe Half the Sky is scum and NocturneMage is right. In which case.... I need to talk with MoosyDoosy after the game and figure out what happened there.I'm actually almost completely sold on this case. If Dani wasn't having an awful time with the sickness, I would be very confident she was mafia. The key points for me are: 1. Tone. Her posts have a lifeless quality, but it's not clear she actually believe anything she's posting. I mentioned this earlier. 2. At EOD she was 'voting' for LS but wasn't looking for another candidate, then moved onto kush. I've done multiple EOD's with her and usually she's actively trying to solve. It's not clear that she was trying to solve. Both of those things could be explained by themselves viz the sickness, but both of them together, combined with her actually okay activity? I think Alex might well be right on this. I need to read her filter more carefully, but that's for tomorrow. Also can we have a new rule that only people who didn't blindly follow me into the EOD lynch can call me scum? (Okay, MD and Trfel did not follow me, but that precludes a decent chunk of the rest of you). By the way, Fidei86: Hi, scum  | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
Also if I was scum I would 100% have shot Dani. Gameplay regardless, scum Fidei shoots HTS n1 every game. Every time. So there's that. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 04 2015 08:35 The Shining wrote: Was waiting for someone to ask that.But you think NM/MD slot is scum...NM called your case bad and you had no response to it except to list NM as scum once more, in what would've been your legacy post had you been shot. You left a super wifomy post laying around since you weren't NKd. The fact only Damdred died makes me think there is no Vig but you expected to be Vig shot. Now you're "tempted" to lynch one of HtS and NM. And your had a list of 4 including me when all of those were your town reads/leans. What about the Damdred NK makes your NM read null enough to change your entire tone and scumreads? Was hoping that no one asked that I'm town. I'm the most vocal person in the thread (by number of posts, not thread influence). My second strongest scum read is Damdred, who mafia knows is town, and I've been suspicious of him throughout the game. Mafia ought to know that I'm not going to reverse my read on Damdred. So why does mafia shoot Damdred? (first of all, I know that Damdred is a great player, please don't misunderstand; but being a great player doesn't really help you when there's some bull-headed moron who is going to get you lynched or stop town from progressing at all while trying to do so) I looked through Damdred's filter, and I didn't see any scum reads. I checked for scum reads on DoYouHas and Half the Sky, two players who I thought might be particularly inclined to shoot Damdred if they were scum; he basically didn't mention them at all. Thus, the only really noteworthy read in Damdred's filter is his not wanting to lynch NocturneMage (not exactly sure if it was a townread or a not wanting to lynch read, but it's the same for this purpose). If NocturneMage is mafia, there's no way he shoots Damdred here. And the night kill for WIFOM reasons is bad because mafia would have been in an extremely good position with me scumreading Damdred. To be honest, the night kill suggests to me that mafia messed up. Not Damdred's fault at all, my fault, but I really don't think that mafia should kill Damdred. I would be first think of being suspicious of Palmar and Rels, two players who I might have considered for the night kill above Damdred, but I think they would just let me mislynch Damdred or lose the game for town by trying. Perhaps Palmar is an exception, since I don't think he was here when I pushed my case on Damdred, but still, Damdred was strongly townreading Palmar. That's why my tentative conclusion is that mafia is more likely to be in the less active group that I mentioned. The Shining is included in that group partially because Damdred has an extremely good read on The Shining, and so despite Damdred townreading The Shining for now, I can see The Shining as mafia wanting to get rid of Damdred. But the biggest reason for the night kill is probably that Damdred didn't think that NocturneMage is mafia. Which is extremely strong. That combined with me being wrong on Damdred (partially association, partially doubting my read accuracy) makes me think that it's more likely that NocturneMage is town. | ||
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
NM: your case is bad. Trfel: list post. NM is scum. Damdred(flipped town) is scumlean. Discuss Damdred in list post, + fear reads on Palmar and Rels. One line response to NM about "explaining to Trfel(his strongest scumread) why his case is bad.". In case there is any doubt. Trfel: pretty sure the game is solved. Damdred is NKd. Trfel: DYH Shining Disfo FF are scum.(NM read goes poof) NM: Fidei and HtS are probably scum. Trfel: NM is right on Fidei, might be right on HtS. ?????????????? | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On December 04 2015 08:38 The Shining wrote: Like I am looking forward to NMs case, I don't see much reason to town HtS either but Trfels change in tone here, I just don't really understand. How does Damdred being the NK and NM making a post without actually making a case yet absolve Trfel of his 100% read oin MD/NM without any sort of response to NM? Has anyone ever played with super tryhard Trfel as town? The closest I've seen to this is Kita in Personalities, but that was just one post. This is way more. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On December 04 2015 08:44 The Shining wrote: I added the italics on my own. That sentence is wrong; my post analyzed the implications of the night kill alone, with little regard to things that weren't the night kill. When I made that post I was not yet sure what to do about NocturneMage (I'm still not, but leaning towards town).Trfel: MD is 100% scum. NM is scum. NM: your case is bad. Trfel: list post. NM is scum. Damdred(flipped town) is scumlean. Discuss Damdred in list post, + fear reads on Palmar and Rels. One line response to NM about "explaining to Trfel(his strongest scumread) why his case is bad.". In case there is any doubt. Trfel: pretty sure the game is solved. Damdred is NKd. Trfel: DYH Shining Disfo FF are scum.(NM read goes poof) NM: Fidei and HtS are probably scum. Trfel: NM is right on Fidei, might be right on HtS. ?????????????? I said that NocturneMage is right about Fidei86 being possible scum, and I should add him to the "more suspicious" list (again, NOT the scum list; I don't have a scum list). Looking through Half the Sky's filter so far, everything seems fine (especially given that she has a cold) individually, but there seems to be no flow at all. It's a lot of commenting with few conclusions, and she's discussing a million different things with no progression on the scumreads (not pushing them or trying to figure out their alignment). I'll keep going and see if something changes, but it seems that Half the Sky is probably mafia. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On December 04 2015 08:21 Fecalfeast wrote: no no disform, he entered the game saying he was going to scumread hts before he even read the game. He doesn't need any more explanation than that Yeah. Not entirely trusting NM at the moment. But I also am kinda null of HtS (as explained at night). At the very least I think the case can help us figure out NM, so I want to see what he got. Also HtS has not posted a single thing the nightphase, right? | ||
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Fecalfeast
Canada11355 Posts
On December 04 2015 08:20 Trfel wrote: NocturneMage is right, Fidei86 should be added to this list. I really don't know about Half the Sky. It's very hard for me to separate the play from the cold/sickness/whatever. I'll definitely take another look, though. Tempted to lynch one of Half the Sky/NocturneMage and then the other if they flip town, but that seems bad; the scum should be able to be found without having to do that. I'm going to assume for now that NocturneMage is good enough as town that he wouldn't get this wrong, for simplicity's sake, but I'll re-evaluate this assumption when he makes his case. wtf is this post lol what happened to 99.9% scum?? | ||
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Fecalfeast
Canada11355 Posts
On December 04 2015 08:44 The Shining wrote: Trfel: MD is 100% scum. NM is scum. NM: your case is bad. Trfel: list post. NM is scum. Damdred(flipped town) is scumlean. Discuss Damdred in list post, + fear reads on Palmar and Rels. One line response to NM about "explaining to Trfel(his strongest scumread) why his case is bad.". In case there is any doubt. Trfel: pretty sure the game is solved. Damdred is NKd. Trfel: DYH Shining Disfo FF are scum.(NM read goes poof) NM: Fidei and HtS are probably scum. Trfel: NM is right on Fidei, might be right on HtS. ?????????????? yeah pretty much this | ||
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