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Season of the Witch 2 - Page 61

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
September 20 2015 11:55 GMT
#1201
On September 20 2015 20:53 raynpelikoneet wrote:
The thing is we are NOT lynching Damdred if there is not a red check on him.
100%.

no shit
that what I've been saying since the start of the day
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
September 20 2015 11:57 GMT
#1202
rayn, you attacking me when you were not here EOD AND without explaining why, just "if you were town you would have lynched LS over Dandel" is super weird
I know how you play. I know Dandel refusing to explain his two weird reads would have made you lynch him
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
September 20 2015 11:59 GMT
#1203
On September 16 2015 08:28 Fidei86 wrote:
- I think Lightning Strike is town, and I think the early push on him was suspect. I don't know how any of you can be surprised that LS says stuff that doesn't add up early on. He's done that in every game I've seen him in, and he's also basically like that in voice. The way that he responded to Rels at his post #362 (basically "I'm not talking to you any more") felt very genuine, and exactly how I'd expect angsty town LS to respond.

this read doesn't make any sense at all because this is not what LS is doing.
LS is not being "incomprehensible". LS just plain out refuses to answer simple questions, and not for once or twise, but EVERY time.

- I think the person who comes out from the LS push looking the worst is TT. At his post #218 he basically says that LS is a "fine lynch", but his reasons are just re-hashes of what other people have posted earlier. He then takes it back at (#473) after others already had. I also think his town reads of Rayn, Rels and Vivax feel a little ... safe. I think thread sentiment is all pretty set on those three already, for pretty obvious reasons. When TT was mafia in HG he felt like he was always on the right side of every argument, and so far he reminds me of this.

this read doesn't make any sense. for several reasons. It is an assumption that LS is town. Okay, it kinda makes sense, but then look at what he says about HtS?!?!?!?! The opposite. HtS comes off looking town because she is wrong on LS (and knows LS way better than TT does). roflskates. Also look at the bolded part. "TT is mafia because he reads obvious townies (that everyone else also reads) town". ROFL! SERIOUSLY?!?!

I don't have a good handle on geript, TS (whose thread entry got a lot of talk, but which seemed pretty NAI to me) and FF. HTS is playing the same as the last two games we played together (when she was town). Her reason to scum me look genuine enough (if wrong, lol), and her read evolutions on LS and BM look natural. I think she's probably a town read, but I'm pretty sure when she does roll scum she'll fool me.

"I think she is town but i wouldn't know if she was scum."
Yeah dude great read.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
September 20 2015 12:00 GMT
#1204
On September 20 2015 20:57 Rels wrote:
rayn, you attacking me when you were not here EOD AND without explaining why, just "if you were town you would have lynched LS over Dandel" is super weird
I know how you play. I know Dandel refusing to explain his two weird reads would have made you lynch him

I don't care if i was here or not in the EoD.
That does not make you look any better.

The point still stands, i would think if you are town you would 100% get on LS with me and geript who btw WAS here on EoD.
table for two on a tv tray
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
September 20 2015 12:00 GMT
#1205
So rayn. I'm voting LS, since his filter dive didn't convince me he was town. Since everybody is OK with his lynch, if he is mafia it is a bus. With whom ?
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
September 20 2015 12:01 GMT
#1206
There is nothing fucking weird in that. Two arguably the most experienced players in this game have a really strong scumread on LS and basically no read on Dandel and you decide to lynch Dandel.

That is weird, not my concerns on you.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
September 20 2015 12:02 GMT
#1207
On September 20 2015 21:00 Rels wrote:
So rayn. I'm voting LS, since his filter dive didn't convince me he was town. Since everybody is OK with his lynch, if he is mafia it is a bus. With whom ?

James and idk yet.
All the dead people are 99,8% town.
table for two on a tv tray
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
September 20 2015 12:02 GMT
#1208
On September 20 2015 21:00 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 20 2015 20:57 Rels wrote:
rayn, you attacking me when you were not here EOD AND without explaining why, just "if you were town you would have lynched LS over Dandel" is super weird
I know how you play. I know Dandel refusing to explain his two weird reads would have made you lynch him

I don't care if i was here or not in the EoD.
That does not make you look any better.

The point still stands, i would think if you are town you would 100% get on LS with me and geript who btw WAS here on EoD.

There is NO reason for you to attack me on that
If you feel my reasonning for voting Dandel is bad, show me how it is fucking bad
But at EOD I felt he was more likely to be scum than LS. Actually I was pretty sure Dandel was scum
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
September 20 2015 12:02 GMT
#1209
On September 20 2015 21:02 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 20 2015 21:00 Rels wrote:
So rayn. I'm voting LS, since his filter dive didn't convince me he was town. Since everybody is OK with his lynch, if he is mafia it is a bus. With whom ?

James and idk yet.
All the dead people are 99,8% town.

ofc
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
September 20 2015 12:04 GMT
#1210
On September 20 2015 21:02 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 20 2015 21:00 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On September 20 2015 20:57 Rels wrote:
rayn, you attacking me when you were not here EOD AND without explaining why, just "if you were town you would have lynched LS over Dandel" is super weird
I know how you play. I know Dandel refusing to explain his two weird reads would have made you lynch him

I don't care if i was here or not in the EoD.
That does not make you look any better.

The point still stands, i would think if you are town you would 100% get on LS with me and geript who btw WAS here on EoD.

There is NO reason for you to attack me on that
If you feel my reasonning for voting Dandel is bad, show me how it is fucking bad
But at EOD I felt he was more likely to be scum than LS. Actually I was pretty sure Dandel was scum

I don't care. I think you are more likely to be town than some other people so it doesn't really matter.
I guess i am just mad at you.. *sigh*
table for two on a tv tray
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
September 20 2015 12:08 GMT
#1211
On September 20 2015 21:04 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 20 2015 21:02 Rels wrote:
On September 20 2015 21:00 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On September 20 2015 20:57 Rels wrote:
rayn, you attacking me when you were not here EOD AND without explaining why, just "if you were town you would have lynched LS over Dandel" is super weird
I know how you play. I know Dandel refusing to explain his two weird reads would have made you lynch him

I don't care if i was here or not in the EoD.
That does not make you look any better.

The point still stands, i would think if you are town you would 100% get on LS with me and geript who btw WAS here on EoD.

There is NO reason for you to attack me on that
If you feel my reasonning for voting Dandel is bad, show me how it is fucking bad
But at EOD I felt he was more likely to be scum than LS. Actually I was pretty sure Dandel was scum

I don't care. I think you are more likely to be town than some other people so it doesn't really matter.
I guess i am just mad at you.. *sigh*

mm
about LS' partner, the most likely ones are fidei and BM
fidei for defending him D1
BM for voting Damdred at the start of D2 and being the last person saying LS could be mafia
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
September 20 2015 12:08 GMT
#1212
On September 20 2015 18:06 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 20 2015 09:40 Tictock wrote:
On September 19 2015 15:44 Bill Murray wrote:
On September 19 2015 14:57 Tictock wrote:
Also, just gunna throw this out there.

Cop (Inquisitor) doesn't NEED to claim if they have a red check imo. In fact I'm not sure it's a good idea at all anymore.

Right now we know Vixax is martyr, if Cop claims with a red-check on Damdred then mafia can soup them both tonight, and possibly more if they have some read on other roles.

So claiming a redcheck is a 1 mafia for 2 town trade. Given that mafia goes for the soup kill.

That would (again assuming we are 7/3 now) put us into a 5/2. Leaving town with the one mislynch before we are in lylo.

So think things through yourself, check if I'm right here and if it's still a good call to claim a check in this situation.

I 100% disagree with this
we can afford that... in fact it would be good for town
we CANT afford losing 3 in 1 night
either way with 3 or with 2 we can do the 2 fer

first off, it will prevent a mylo scenario which is awkward
8v2
lynch 7v2
nightkill 6v2
lynch 5v2
nightkill4v2 (mylo)
but if you do your scenario
8v2
lynch 7v2
soup 5v2
lynch 4v2
nightkill 3v2
(cleaner... better odds of lynching mafia in lylo ass opposed to mylo)

TL;DR with 2 or 3 left we are in an awkward scenario where it will end up in mylo instead of lylo which are better odds for mafia.


So looking back at this, I noticed that there are some mistakes/weird stuff happening here.

In your 2nd list you have town mislynching, followed by a soup kill which makes no sense. Only way we get a 2nd claim today is if Inq claims a redcheck which would mean:
8v2
lynch 8v1
soup 6v1
mislynch 5v1
nightkill 4v1
ml 3v1
nk 2v1
LyLo

no soup
8v2
ml 7v2
nk 6v2
ml 5v2
nk 4v2
MyLo

Or the 7/3 situation
7v3
lynch 7v2
soup 5v2
ml 4v2
nk 3v2
LyLo

And lastly 7/3 no soup
7v3
ml 6v3
nk 5v3
MyLo (ml 4v3 into nk 3v3)

That last one is scary actually.
Also I now see exactly what you mean BM. Redcheck should definitely be claimed.

It probably should have been claimed already, but if you listened to my lat post about this and held off claiming a redcheck now is the time. Otherwise assuming Damdred is town seems fairly reasonable.

OK I'll resume this post to see if it makes sense. Assuming Shining wasn't mafia, as I'm pretty sure he was town, and assuming we mislynch every day, the three possibilities are:
Red check claimed:
7-3 is now
7-2 mislynch
6-2 after NK
Two mislynches left before losing

Red check not claimed:
7-3 is now
6-3 mislynch
5-3 after NK
One mislynch left before losing

Green check not claimed:
7-3 is now
6-3 mislynch
5-3 after NK
One mislyng before losing

It doesn't make sense for the inquisitor to not claim.

you're wrong; recheck your math
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
September 20 2015 12:09 GMT
#1213
On September 20 2015 21:08 Bill Murray wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 20 2015 18:06 Rels wrote:
On September 20 2015 09:40 Tictock wrote:
On September 19 2015 15:44 Bill Murray wrote:
On September 19 2015 14:57 Tictock wrote:
Also, just gunna throw this out there.

Cop (Inquisitor) doesn't NEED to claim if they have a red check imo. In fact I'm not sure it's a good idea at all anymore.

Right now we know Vixax is martyr, if Cop claims with a red-check on Damdred then mafia can soup them both tonight, and possibly more if they have some read on other roles.

So claiming a redcheck is a 1 mafia for 2 town trade. Given that mafia goes for the soup kill.

That would (again assuming we are 7/3 now) put us into a 5/2. Leaving town with the one mislynch before we are in lylo.

So think things through yourself, check if I'm right here and if it's still a good call to claim a check in this situation.

I 100% disagree with this
we can afford that... in fact it would be good for town
we CANT afford losing 3 in 1 night
either way with 3 or with 2 we can do the 2 fer

first off, it will prevent a mylo scenario which is awkward
8v2
lynch 7v2
nightkill 6v2
lynch 5v2
nightkill4v2 (mylo)
but if you do your scenario
8v2
lynch 7v2
soup 5v2
lynch 4v2
nightkill 3v2
(cleaner... better odds of lynching mafia in lylo ass opposed to mylo)

TL;DR with 2 or 3 left we are in an awkward scenario where it will end up in mylo instead of lylo which are better odds for mafia.


So looking back at this, I noticed that there are some mistakes/weird stuff happening here.

In your 2nd list you have town mislynching, followed by a soup kill which makes no sense. Only way we get a 2nd claim today is if Inq claims a redcheck which would mean:
8v2
lynch 8v1
soup 6v1
mislynch 5v1
nightkill 4v1
ml 3v1
nk 2v1
LyLo

no soup
8v2
ml 7v2
nk 6v2
ml 5v2
nk 4v2
MyLo

Or the 7/3 situation
7v3
lynch 7v2
soup 5v2
ml 4v2
nk 3v2
LyLo

And lastly 7/3 no soup
7v3
ml 6v3
nk 5v3
MyLo (ml 4v3 into nk 3v3)

That last one is scary actually.
Also I now see exactly what you mean BM. Redcheck should definitely be claimed.

It probably should have been claimed already, but if you listened to my lat post about this and held off claiming a redcheck now is the time. Otherwise assuming Damdred is town seems fairly reasonable.

OK I'll resume this post to see if it makes sense. Assuming Shining wasn't mafia, as I'm pretty sure he was town, and assuming we mislynch every day, the three possibilities are:
Red check claimed:
7-3 is now
7-2 mislynch
6-2 after NK
Two mislynches left before losing

Red check not claimed:
7-3 is now
6-3 mislynch
5-3 after NK
One mislynch left before losing

Green check not claimed:
7-3 is now
6-3 mislynch
5-3 after NK
One mislyng before losing

It doesn't make sense for the inquisitor to not claim.

you're wrong; recheck your math

I did already, continue reading
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
September 20 2015 12:09 GMT
#1214
On September 20 2015 18:21 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 20 2015 18:06 Rels wrote:
On September 20 2015 09:40 Tictock wrote:
On September 19 2015 15:44 Bill Murray wrote:
On September 19 2015 14:57 Tictock wrote:
Also, just gunna throw this out there.

Cop (Inquisitor) doesn't NEED to claim if they have a red check imo. In fact I'm not sure it's a good idea at all anymore.

Right now we know Vixax is martyr, if Cop claims with a red-check on Damdred then mafia can soup them both tonight, and possibly more if they have some read on other roles.

So claiming a redcheck is a 1 mafia for 2 town trade. Given that mafia goes for the soup kill.

That would (again assuming we are 7/3 now) put us into a 5/2. Leaving town with the one mislynch before we are in lylo.

So think things through yourself, check if I'm right here and if it's still a good call to claim a check in this situation.

I 100% disagree with this
we can afford that... in fact it would be good for town
we CANT afford losing 3 in 1 night
either way with 3 or with 2 we can do the 2 fer

first off, it will prevent a mylo scenario which is awkward
8v2
lynch 7v2
nightkill 6v2
lynch 5v2
nightkill4v2 (mylo)
but if you do your scenario
8v2
lynch 7v2
soup 5v2
lynch 4v2
nightkill 3v2
(cleaner... better odds of lynching mafia in lylo ass opposed to mylo)

TL;DR with 2 or 3 left we are in an awkward scenario where it will end up in mylo instead of lylo which are better odds for mafia.


So looking back at this, I noticed that there are some mistakes/weird stuff happening here.

In your 2nd list you have town mislynching, followed by a soup kill which makes no sense. Only way we get a 2nd claim today is if Inq claims a redcheck which would mean:
8v2
lynch 8v1
soup 6v1
mislynch 5v1
nightkill 4v1
ml 3v1
nk 2v1
LyLo

no soup
8v2
ml 7v2
nk 6v2
ml 5v2
nk 4v2
MyLo

Or the 7/3 situation
7v3
lynch 7v2
soup 5v2
ml 4v2
nk 3v2
LyLo

And lastly 7/3 no soup
7v3
ml 6v3
nk 5v3
MyLo (ml 4v3 into nk 3v3)

That last one is scary actually.
Also I now see exactly what you mean BM. Redcheck should definitely be claimed.

It probably should have been claimed already, but if you listened to my lat post about this and held off claiming a redcheck now is the time. Otherwise assuming Damdred is town seems fairly reasonable.

OK I'll resume this post to see if it makes sense. Assuming Shining wasn't mafia, as I'm pretty sure he was town, and assuming we mislynch every day, the three possibilities are:
Red check claimed:
7-3 is now
7-2 mislynch
6-2 after NK
Two mislynches left before losing

Red check not claimed:
7-3 is now
6-3 mislynch
5-3 after NK
One mislynch left before losing

Green check not claimed:
7-3 is now
6-3 mislynch
5-3 after NK
One mislyng before losing

It doesn't make sense for the inquisitor to not claim.

Fuck I forgot soup. Let me redo this:

Red check claimed:
7-3 is now
7-2 mislynch
5-2 after soup
Two mislynches left before losing

Red check not claimed:
7-3 is now
6-3 mislynch
5-3 after NK
One mislynch left before losing

Green check not claimed:
7-3 is now
6-3 mislynch
5-3 after NK
One mislyng before losing

OK even with soup it's better to claim actually.

are you purposefully putting out bad information and maf or are you just stupid?
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
September 20 2015 12:11 GMT
#1215
On September 20 2015 21:09 Bill Murray wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 20 2015 18:21 Rels wrote:
On September 20 2015 18:06 Rels wrote:
On September 20 2015 09:40 Tictock wrote:
On September 19 2015 15:44 Bill Murray wrote:
On September 19 2015 14:57 Tictock wrote:
Also, just gunna throw this out there.

Cop (Inquisitor) doesn't NEED to claim if they have a red check imo. In fact I'm not sure it's a good idea at all anymore.

Right now we know Vixax is martyr, if Cop claims with a red-check on Damdred then mafia can soup them both tonight, and possibly more if they have some read on other roles.

So claiming a redcheck is a 1 mafia for 2 town trade. Given that mafia goes for the soup kill.

That would (again assuming we are 7/3 now) put us into a 5/2. Leaving town with the one mislynch before we are in lylo.

So think things through yourself, check if I'm right here and if it's still a good call to claim a check in this situation.

I 100% disagree with this
we can afford that... in fact it would be good for town
we CANT afford losing 3 in 1 night
either way with 3 or with 2 we can do the 2 fer

first off, it will prevent a mylo scenario which is awkward
8v2
lynch 7v2
nightkill 6v2
lynch 5v2
nightkill4v2 (mylo)
but if you do your scenario
8v2
lynch 7v2
soup 5v2
lynch 4v2
nightkill 3v2
(cleaner... better odds of lynching mafia in lylo ass opposed to mylo)

TL;DR with 2 or 3 left we are in an awkward scenario where it will end up in mylo instead of lylo which are better odds for mafia.


So looking back at this, I noticed that there are some mistakes/weird stuff happening here.

In your 2nd list you have town mislynching, followed by a soup kill which makes no sense. Only way we get a 2nd claim today is if Inq claims a redcheck which would mean:
8v2
lynch 8v1
soup 6v1
mislynch 5v1
nightkill 4v1
ml 3v1
nk 2v1
LyLo

no soup
8v2
ml 7v2
nk 6v2
ml 5v2
nk 4v2
MyLo

Or the 7/3 situation
7v3
lynch 7v2
soup 5v2
ml 4v2
nk 3v2
LyLo

And lastly 7/3 no soup
7v3
ml 6v3
nk 5v3
MyLo (ml 4v3 into nk 3v3)

That last one is scary actually.
Also I now see exactly what you mean BM. Redcheck should definitely be claimed.

It probably should have been claimed already, but if you listened to my lat post about this and held off claiming a redcheck now is the time. Otherwise assuming Damdred is town seems fairly reasonable.

OK I'll resume this post to see if it makes sense. Assuming Shining wasn't mafia, as I'm pretty sure he was town, and assuming we mislynch every day, the three possibilities are:
Red check claimed:
7-3 is now
7-2 mislynch
6-2 after NK
Two mislynches left before losing

Red check not claimed:
7-3 is now
6-3 mislynch
5-3 after NK
One mislynch left before losing

Green check not claimed:
7-3 is now
6-3 mislynch
5-3 after NK
One mislyng before losing

It doesn't make sense for the inquisitor to not claim.

Fuck I forgot soup. Let me redo this:

Red check claimed:
7-3 is now
7-2 mislynch
5-2 after soup
Two mislynches left before losing

Red check not claimed:
7-3 is now
6-3 mislynch
5-3 after NK
One mislynch left before losing

Green check not claimed:
7-3 is now
6-3 mislynch
5-3 after NK
One mislyng before losing

OK even with soup it's better to claim actually.

are you purposefully putting out bad information and maf or are you just stupid?

explain to me what is the fucking problem ?
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
September 20 2015 12:11 GMT
#1216
On September 20 2015 21:09 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 20 2015 21:08 Bill Murray wrote:
On September 20 2015 18:06 Rels wrote:
On September 20 2015 09:40 Tictock wrote:
On September 19 2015 15:44 Bill Murray wrote:
On September 19 2015 14:57 Tictock wrote:
Also, just gunna throw this out there.

Cop (Inquisitor) doesn't NEED to claim if they have a red check imo. In fact I'm not sure it's a good idea at all anymore.

Right now we know Vixax is martyr, if Cop claims with a red-check on Damdred then mafia can soup them both tonight, and possibly more if they have some read on other roles.

So claiming a redcheck is a 1 mafia for 2 town trade. Given that mafia goes for the soup kill.

That would (again assuming we are 7/3 now) put us into a 5/2. Leaving town with the one mislynch before we are in lylo.

So think things through yourself, check if I'm right here and if it's still a good call to claim a check in this situation.

I 100% disagree with this
we can afford that... in fact it would be good for town
we CANT afford losing 3 in 1 night
either way with 3 or with 2 we can do the 2 fer

first off, it will prevent a mylo scenario which is awkward
8v2
lynch 7v2
nightkill 6v2
lynch 5v2
nightkill4v2 (mylo)
but if you do your scenario
8v2
lynch 7v2
soup 5v2
lynch 4v2
nightkill 3v2
(cleaner... better odds of lynching mafia in lylo ass opposed to mylo)

TL;DR with 2 or 3 left we are in an awkward scenario where it will end up in mylo instead of lylo which are better odds for mafia.


So looking back at this, I noticed that there are some mistakes/weird stuff happening here.

In your 2nd list you have town mislynching, followed by a soup kill which makes no sense. Only way we get a 2nd claim today is if Inq claims a redcheck which would mean:
8v2
lynch 8v1
soup 6v1
mislynch 5v1
nightkill 4v1
ml 3v1
nk 2v1
LyLo

no soup
8v2
ml 7v2
nk 6v2
ml 5v2
nk 4v2
MyLo

Or the 7/3 situation
7v3
lynch 7v2
soup 5v2
ml 4v2
nk 3v2
LyLo

And lastly 7/3 no soup
7v3
ml 6v3
nk 5v3
MyLo (ml 4v3 into nk 3v3)

That last one is scary actually.
Also I now see exactly what you mean BM. Redcheck should definitely be claimed.

It probably should have been claimed already, but if you listened to my lat post about this and held off claiming a redcheck now is the time. Otherwise assuming Damdred is town seems fairly reasonable.

OK I'll resume this post to see if it makes sense. Assuming Shining wasn't mafia, as I'm pretty sure he was town, and assuming we mislynch every day, the three possibilities are:
Red check claimed:
7-3 is now
7-2 mislynch
6-2 after NK
Two mislynches left before losing

Red check not claimed:
7-3 is now
6-3 mislynch
5-3 after NK
One mislynch left before losing

Green check not claimed:
7-3 is now
6-3 mislynch
5-3 after NK
One mislyng before losing

It doesn't make sense for the inquisitor to not claim.

you're wrong; recheck your math

I did already, continue reading

Apparently you didn't, unless you are mafia and know something i don't.
table for two on a tv tray
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
September 20 2015 12:14 GMT
#1217
On September 20 2015 21:11 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 20 2015 21:09 Rels wrote:
On September 20 2015 21:08 Bill Murray wrote:
On September 20 2015 18:06 Rels wrote:
On September 20 2015 09:40 Tictock wrote:
On September 19 2015 15:44 Bill Murray wrote:
On September 19 2015 14:57 Tictock wrote:
Also, just gunna throw this out there.

Cop (Inquisitor) doesn't NEED to claim if they have a red check imo. In fact I'm not sure it's a good idea at all anymore.

Right now we know Vixax is martyr, if Cop claims with a red-check on Damdred then mafia can soup them both tonight, and possibly more if they have some read on other roles.

So claiming a redcheck is a 1 mafia for 2 town trade. Given that mafia goes for the soup kill.

That would (again assuming we are 7/3 now) put us into a 5/2. Leaving town with the one mislynch before we are in lylo.

So think things through yourself, check if I'm right here and if it's still a good call to claim a check in this situation.

I 100% disagree with this
we can afford that... in fact it would be good for town
we CANT afford losing 3 in 1 night
either way with 3 or with 2 we can do the 2 fer

first off, it will prevent a mylo scenario which is awkward
8v2
lynch 7v2
nightkill 6v2
lynch 5v2
nightkill4v2 (mylo)
but if you do your scenario
8v2
lynch 7v2
soup 5v2
lynch 4v2
nightkill 3v2
(cleaner... better odds of lynching mafia in lylo ass opposed to mylo)

TL;DR with 2 or 3 left we are in an awkward scenario where it will end up in mylo instead of lylo which are better odds for mafia.


So looking back at this, I noticed that there are some mistakes/weird stuff happening here.

In your 2nd list you have town mislynching, followed by a soup kill which makes no sense. Only way we get a 2nd claim today is if Inq claims a redcheck which would mean:
8v2
lynch 8v1
soup 6v1
mislynch 5v1
nightkill 4v1
ml 3v1
nk 2v1
LyLo

no soup
8v2
ml 7v2
nk 6v2
ml 5v2
nk 4v2
MyLo

Or the 7/3 situation
7v3
lynch 7v2
soup 5v2
ml 4v2
nk 3v2
LyLo

And lastly 7/3 no soup
7v3
ml 6v3
nk 5v3
MyLo (ml 4v3 into nk 3v3)

That last one is scary actually.
Also I now see exactly what you mean BM. Redcheck should definitely be claimed.

It probably should have been claimed already, but if you listened to my lat post about this and held off claiming a redcheck now is the time. Otherwise assuming Damdred is town seems fairly reasonable.

OK I'll resume this post to see if it makes sense. Assuming Shining wasn't mafia, as I'm pretty sure he was town, and assuming we mislynch every day, the three possibilities are:
Red check claimed:
7-3 is now
7-2 mislynch
6-2 after NK
Two mislynches left before losing

Red check not claimed:
7-3 is now
6-3 mislynch
5-3 after NK
One mislynch left before losing

Green check not claimed:
7-3 is now
6-3 mislynch
5-3 after NK
One mislyng before losing

It doesn't make sense for the inquisitor to not claim.

you're wrong; recheck your math

I did already, continue reading

Apparently you didn't, unless you are mafia and know something i don't.

which is ?
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
September 20 2015 12:15 GMT
#1218
Red check not claimed:
7-3 is now
6-3 mislynch
5-3 after NK
One mislynch left before losing

Green check not claimed:
7-3 is now
6-3 mislynch
5-3 after NK
One mislyng before losing

we know for a fact dandel was town.
so rels, explain it to me like i am five, why does the Exorcist not shoot if we mislynch?
Because i can only think of one thing....
table for two on a tv tray
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
September 20 2015 12:17 GMT
#1219
On September 20 2015 19:40 Rels wrote:
Now about BM.

Town points
1
Tone. BM seem to be able to post freely, and this is town indicative.

Mafia points
In spoiler Vivax' case against BM. I will take one point from his case.
+ Show Spoiler +

On September 17 2015 22:52 Vivax wrote:
Rapid fire posting doesn't make BM town. I don't find his reasoning for talking about my reads over rayn's satisfying. Point being he shouldn't have any reason to compare his reads to mine when I'm confirmed town and turn a blind eye towards rayn like he did. While I'm writing this I'm also suspicious of rayn for the way the two of them haven't been particularly hands-on towards each other.

I'm going to pick apart a few of his posts:

Show nested quote +
On September 16 2015 03:33 Bill Murray wrote:
you know vivax and i disagree hard when his 3 town reads are my 3 scum reads thusfar

I feel TT and Rels have been buddying and I had a scumread on TT

Rels list is something I do as scum and I feel it tries to buy towncred

He then goes into Maf wouldnt mess with grail D1 into D1 trying to give grail to TT

TT was my original gut i felt like hey this guy is relatively new I dont know if he knows how to play scum but this is what I would imagine his words would read like if he did. I based my interactions off of that thusfar.

I could consolidate on LS he might just be nervous and have a decent role but I could easily see him as scum acting the way he does


"Buddying" is something you do when you try to pocket a townie, scum don't need to buddy each other. BM should know that.

This post has pretty much contrary opinion to what me and Rayn said about Rels and TT and ends with him wanting to "consolidate" on LS for unmentioned reasons.

Show nested quote +
On September 16 2015 03:40 Bill Murray wrote:
On September 16 2015 03:39 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Okay i seriously think BM is town now.
BM i don't think your read on Rels is accurate, i think he is quite obviously town.
I will re-evaluate TT tomorrow, but i still think he is town.
I think FF has a decent chance of being mafia.

well even if i think they might be town i want to break up their buddy buddy circlejerk


Here rayn talked against his reads and notice how BM's reads shift towards thinking that Rels and TT might be town. Rayn agrees with FF being mafia.

Also interesting wording implying that rayn and me aren't part of that buddy buddy circlejerk when BM is townreading all of us. Kinda minor point but seems like reasoning he just slapped in there.

No mention of LS he was willing to consolidate on (2 minutes later he softens that scumread). I have no idea why rayn TRs him.

Here BM reaches the point of zero scumreads:

Show nested quote +
On September 16 2015 03:55 Bill Murray wrote:
LS has a unique read there

FF im gonna drop my scumread on you because i like your explanation - i didnt realize he ninja'd you there... but i remember reading the lol into lol followed by the influx of marijuana induced loling


So he rereads to find something:

Show nested quote +
On September 16 2015 04:00 Bill Murray wrote:
ok Rels is town ~circa page 15


And finds something that suddenly makes Rels town... When it has been posted SIX HOURS before he scumread him for the buddy buddy and the list post.

Proof:

+ Show Spoiler +
On September 15 2015 17:20 Rels wrote:
OK let's bring back this little thing.

The useful list of useless people
The Shining
HTS
LS
fidei
Dandel Ion

If one person is still in this list at deadline I'll push him hard


His post at page 15:

On September 15 2015 21:52 Rels wrote:
I don't understand you.

You think rayn is doing a bad thing martyr hunting. You're the first to react to his plan.

And instead of explaining WHY martyr hunting is bad, you post this:
Show nested quote +
On September 15 2015 07:20 LightningStrike wrote:
So rayn since you want the martyr to claim do you see any benefit of them not claiming at all?

Then you gtfo.
I think you're mafia.


On September 16 2015 03:33 Bill Murray wrote:
you know vivax and i disagree hard when his 3 town reads are my 3 scum reads thusfar

I feel TT and Rels have been buddying and I had a scumread on TT

Rels list is something I do as scum and I feel it tries to buy towncred

He then goes into Maf wouldnt mess with grail D1 into D1 trying to give grail to TT

TT was my original gut i felt like hey this guy is relatively new I dont know if he knows how to play scum but this is what I would imagine his words would read like if he did. I based my interactions off of that thusfar.

I could consolidate on LS he might just be nervous and have a decent role but I could easily see him as scum acting the way he does


On September 16 2015 04:00 Bill Murray wrote:
ok Rels is town ~circa page 15


So yeah, BM is bullshittin



1
Vivax's good point in the case: when first posting and catching up with the thread, we had 4 people more or less forming an initial town circle: TT, rayn, Vivax and I. BM tried to break the circle by mentioning:
- TT and I were buddying (which, if we're both mafia, is not even the right term)
- saying Vivax's reads were wrong (about TT and I town)
- not mentioning that rayn's reads were wrong, even though they matched Vivax'
Then, as soon as rayn told him I probably was not mafia, he dropped his scumreads.
So what I'm seeing here is BM buddying rayn by:
1. saying Vivax' reads are wrong instead of rayn's, even though they are the same
2. dropping his reads as soon as rayn talks to him

2
BM didn't participate in the check plan (rayn's plan about town deciding the check target). This plan is bad for mafia, so him not participating or mentionning the plan is scum indicative.
+ Show Spoiler +

On September 19 2015 18:40 Rels wrote:
Now that plan of directing the cop check is really bad for the mafia and really good for town. So everybody that participated in it will have town points:
Show nested quote +
On September 18 2015 06:14 Rels wrote:
OK so we have:
Damdred check: rayn Rels TT Hts fidei ff shining
Fidei check: geript

Maybe the last voters get less points, as at this point it was pretty clear Damdred would be checked though. But they still participated on something that is bad for mafia, which would be unnatural if they were mafia.




3
BM's first post in D2 was him scumreading and voting Damdred.
What's bad about it is that the town sentiment about Damdred D1 was that we would be waiting for the check to happen to decide on him. I don't understand him immediately jumping on Damdred, before everybody had a chance to post.
Now he has switched to LS, being the last person to sheep the town sentiment. Maybe this is indicative of a scum bus if LS is mafia.
+ Show Spoiler +

On September 19 2015 12:54 Bill Murray wrote:
Damdred has been failing to scumhunt while easily tossing out "matter of fact" townreads

His one attempt at scumhunting (Shining) he flipflopped on

I can easily see Damdred + FF being scum together
##Vote Damdred

On September 20 2015 12:39 Bill Murray wrote:
I changed my vote to LS




Conclusion
Maybe scum. The only thing keeping me scumreading him 100% is his tone. So: I want someone who has played with him before to tell me if he is capable of having this "I don't care here is my thoughts" tone if he is mafia.

wow youre pushing fucking misinformation hard
1) vivax's case is bullshit
a.) i didnt try to break up an imaginary towncircle that didnt exist. you and tt were cuddling in a corner while vivax was making terrible reads and rayn was trying to drive the shortbus

the real towncircle D1 was rayn-geript-me in my opinion

2) i didnt participate in that because I WASNT HERE.

3) i was voting damdred D1, and i believe he is scum, so i voted him at the start of today
a.) I read rayn say "ls is definitely the lynch for today"
b.) vivax posted and didnt say "nope we're not lynching LS"
c.) im 29 with obligations and shit so im not 100% im always going to have time to change my vote so i went ahead and did what the thread sentiment was
d.) i can easily see damdred-you damdred-ff or LS-you LS-lordknowswho-scum#3
i dont know how many scum or left but i can see damdred or LS being maf
i WANT to believe youre not maf because you feel genuine to me but god there are some people making some terrible reads this game

On September 20 2015 19:50 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 19 2015 19:08 Rels wrote:
On September 19 2015 12:54 Bill Murray wrote:
Damdred has been failing to scumhunt while easily tossing out "matter of fact" townreads

His one attempt at scumhunting (Shining) he flipflopped on

I can easily see Damdred + FF being scum together
##Vote Damdred

WTF
Damdred being suspicious is EXACTLY why he has been checked tonight
Now Shining or geript could have been the inquisitor
But here is a fucking high % Damdred is confirmed town. So why are you voting him ?

BM still waiting for an answer to that

yeah this is all WIFOM we have no idea who was fucking checked
why the fuck would a cop go with your plan? you're not as townie as you think

On September 20 2015 19:50 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 20 2015 19:50 Rels wrote:
On September 19 2015 19:08 Rels wrote:
On September 19 2015 12:54 Bill Murray wrote:
Damdred has been failing to scumhunt while easily tossing out "matter of fact" townreads

His one attempt at scumhunting (Shining) he flipflopped on

I can easily see Damdred + FF being scum together
##Vote Damdred

WTF
Damdred being suspicious is EXACTLY why he has been checked tonight
Now Shining or geript could have been the inquisitor
But here is a fucking high % Damdred is confirmed town. So why are you voting him ?

BM still waiting for an answer to that

If would also like your reasons for switching to LS
Are you just sheeping rayn ?

Way to ask questions and try to get fake ass town cred for someone you thought went to bed
lol.
but nope im here so you're gonna get this flipped back around on you
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
September 20 2015 12:18 GMT
#1220
On September 20 2015 21:15 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
Red check not claimed:
7-3 is now
6-3 mislynch
5-3 after NK
One mislynch left before losing

Green check not claimed:
7-3 is now
6-3 mislynch
5-3 after NK
One mislyng before losing

we know for a fact dandel was town.
so rels, explain it to me like i am five, why does the Exorcist not shoot if we mislynch?
Because i can only think of one thing....

Because I forgot about him
What is your explanation for mafia me forgetting it ?
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