EPTNewbie Student Mafia XIV: Firefly - Page 80
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
I've got to say I found your post on Rayn v GB unconvincing. You said that you believe GB's case on me (which is basically "how could he believe Rayn?"), and that you think there is a flaw in rayn's argument, but that you still want to vote GB because you're town reading Rayn? I mean, the claims change everything. I don't think "I'm town reading Rayn" is sufficient reason to choose him. The claim context analysis is far more important - rayn's claim makes no sense from a Mafia perspective, whereas GB's does. But more importantly than that, I want to know why Scott is in your town circle? Has he done something particularly towny that I missed? | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
I believe GB's case on you? Where is GB's case on you? Where do I believe it? Oo And no, I'm not saying there's a flaw in rayn's argument. I'm just saying "that's the scenario it has to be, if it's not this, he's lieing." Scott is in my town circle for his general posting and ideas that he has. He appears townie to me. Especially the wording issue on GB stood out as a townie thought. | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
On September 08 2015 17:22 Fidei86 wrote: GB's flip will assist, but on the proviso that he flips Mafia, I think Bresh is the most likely town (other than Rayn). He was continuing to disbelieve GB's claim and was pushing his lynch before rayn's claim. That is a ton more convincing than anything Scott has done, as far as I can see. I get that argumentation. But consider this: Breshke says "Lynch GB!" then GB claims doctor, Breshke says "Lynch GB!" without considering anything else, not even asking questions. I mean he was willing into the un-CC'ed doctor, right? That's not too town indicative so I strongly disagree with your point of saying "Bresh more town than Rayn". Breshke is a null for me currently. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
IDK, what is there for Bresh to re-evaluate? He already thought GB's claim was fake. Rayn's CC just confirms it in his mind. That totally makes sense to me from a town perspective. It is possible he was trying to bus. Need to read his filter quickly. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
But that actually changes my view somewhat - I'd also thought he was on the GB wagon for some reason. In the circumstances where GB already fake claims, mafia Bresh would have nothing to lose by pressuring him, especially because it was reasonable to assume town would not lynch into him without a CC. So, yeah. Bresh loses his town Jesus cred for now. | ||
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
On September 08 2015 17:45 Fidei86 wrote: Ok I think you might be mis-remembering because Breshke wasn't ever on the GB wagon. He claims to have been sleeping, and his vote was on Slam through EOD. But that actually changes my view somewhat - I'd also thought he was on the GB wagon for some reason. In the circumstances where GB already fake claims, mafia Bresh would have nothing to lose by pressuring him, especially because it was reasonable to assume town would not lynch into him without a CC. So, yeah. Bresh loses his town Jesus cred for now. Ah this is true. Was it Slam then who was all the way on GB and still wanted to go after him without any reonsideration? :/ | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On September 08 2015 17:45 boxerfred wrote: Fidei seriously start stepping it up. You're active but you have so many mis-calls, misreading stuff over and over, arguing really bad - I really didn't like your "rayn's claim is real" stuff especially since you argued so try-hard "I'm naive and instabelieve it". Sorry, I think before the post that I quoted, there was no way to know that it's a true CC. Only way to know that it's a real CC is if you'd be scum and GlowingBear would be your ally. Well I can't really respond to the first one, other than to say yes, I've made a couple more typographical and comprehension errors than usual here. They're all innocent, and I've admitted to all of them. IDK, I would argue that that's more of a town tell, since mafia are usually more concerned about what they post and whether it makes them look bad, and this would be my first time as mafia too. Still, point taken. But as to your second point - please explain to me what you don't like about the case. A few people have said this and I really don't get it. Like, from a claims analysis perspective, rayn's CC makes *no* sense if he's mafia. Why tie himself so closely to the GB flip, when literally everyone is town-reading him? If he was mafia and knew GB's claim was real, why on earth would he make it so that he is auto-lynched D3? GB's claim, by comparison, was made in the heat of the moment to save his life. In those circumstances, a fake claim to get a townie killed makes perfect sense. I'm genuinely confused now why this isn't obvious to everyone. Am I making some leap of logic somewhere? | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
Day 2 Votecount GlowingBear (7): Fidei86 (1): GlowingBear CopCake (1): MoosyDoosy raynpelikoneet (0): MoosyDoosy (0): Not Voting (2): CopCake, Superbia In GlowingBear will be abandoned on the nearest moon with 7 votes. Please do not forget to vote. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/494187-nsm-xiv-firefly-voting-thread Please vote in the voting thread if you want your vote to be counted. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On September 08 2015 09:28 MoosyDoosy wrote: no this can be false because i think you are angry as you are right now and that you're putting enough faith into your gb read to try and kill him. Moosy, I'm trying to get a handle on whether you actually believe what you're saying here. Let me get this straight - you think that it is possible TOWN Rayn is fake counter-claiming DOCTOR GlowingBear, because Rayn is so angry at GB? Let's consider that for a moment. When you get a claim/counter-claim situation as town then you absolutely have to, 100% of the time, lynch whichever of the claimers you don't believe. If they flip blue, you lynch the other claimer. You do this because there is no reason to think that the town claimer is lying. The reason for THAT is because if Rayn is VT and he's CCing GB, he will know we willl have to lynch them both. Town don't lie on these sorts of CCs because if they are wrong, it means two guarantees mislynches, and it ALSO means that town waste two days. Let's say GB flips blue. We then lynch Rayn. We have to as he is a confirmed liar. If Rayn then flips green, we're in triple lylo with no doctor. Put another way, town Rayn would be staking the entire game on his read of GB. More or less. Rayn might be emotional, but he's not a moron. I just refuse to believe that he's that idiotic and egotistical. I have been in voice-Mafia games where he has done this (I think), but those are just quick throwaway games for fun - this is a huge forum game where everyone is putting in hours and hours of time. It's very different. The only reason not to scum read Moosy is that his read of the situation is so far off the beaten path, and makes so little sense, I don't see scum pushing it. Rayn - if you are VT then you will need to personally apologies to every town member for throwing. Everyone else- the vote today is GB 100%. Please read what I said earlier above about the context of Rayn and GB's claim, if you're unsure. | ||
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MoosyDoosy
United States4519 Posts
On September 08 2015 16:54 boxerfred wrote: MD's case on Copcake feels like a random bunch of quotes that somehow fit the theory. I wish there was more explanation in context, more details and not just "Hypothesis - Quotes that prove it" material. I don't like the case because it doesn't show any thought process or has a conclusion (besides the obvious "COPCAKE IS SCUM") stuff. So no, I'm not willing to look into that case especially since I feel like MoosyDoosy has shown a tendency of jumping in the thread, talking about the currently up to date topic and then leaving again. This kind of drive-by posting doesn't reveal many efforts. I'm scum-leaning MoosyDoosy for now, also for his full-mouthy "I LEAD TOWN NOW". There's literally nothing that MD has done that would make me accept him as the town leader. No way. 1. It's not just hypotheses I'm providing. These are all reasons to read her as scum. If you don't think anti-town tone, lack of post content, content contradiction, and continuous attempts to mislynch town are scum then I'm starting to worry about what exactly you think makes someone Mafia. 2. It's not just the case that makes her Mafia. What is she doing right now to refute the case? Absolutely nothing. Sure she darted in for a bit, but what she said JUST contradicted what she said earlier on in the thread. She can't refute what I've stated because all of them are true and she's relying on her heroes to come in and save her from the lynch. 3. I have not just jumped in the thread temporarily. While you may be skimming through the thread, it's pretty clear you're not putting in the effort by reading filters. Because I've been constantly questioning people about past material in the thread and covering my bases. Even right now all you're doing is coming in, spouting thread sentiment and voting for GlowingBear. EVERYTHING you've been doing so far reflects rayn sentiment and nothing else. Which I guess is what you have to do in order to stay low against the town leader. | ||
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MoosyDoosy
United States4519 Posts
On September 08 2015 21:11 Fidei86 wrote: Moosy, I'm trying to get a handle on whether you actually believe what you're saying here. Let me get this straight - you think that it is possible TOWN Rayn is fake counter-claiming DOCTOR GlowingBear, because Rayn is so angry at GB? Let's consider that for a moment. When you get a claim/counter-claim situation as town then you absolutely have to, 100% of the time, lynch whichever of the claimers you don't believe. If they flip blue, you lynch the other claimer. You do this because there is no reason to think that the town claimer is lying. The reason for THAT is because if Rayn is VT and he's CCing GB, he will know we willl have to lynch them both. Town don't lie on these sorts of CCs because if they are wrong, it means two guarantees mislynches, and it ALSO means that town waste two days. Let's say GB flips blue. We then lynch Rayn. We have to as he is a confirmed liar. If Rayn then flips green, we're in triple lylo with no doctor. Put another way, town Rayn would be staking the entire game on his read of GB. More or less. Rayn might be emotional, but he's not a moron. I just refuse to believe that he's that idiotic and egotistical. I have been in voice-Mafia games where he has done this (I think), but those are just quick throwaway games for fun - this is a huge forum game where everyone is putting in hours and hours of time. It's very different. The only reason not to scum read Moosy is that his read of the situation is so far off the beaten path, and makes so little sense, I don't see scum pushing it. Rayn - if you are VT then you will need to personally apologies to every town member for throwing. Everyone else- the vote today is GB 100%. Please read what I said earlier above about the context of Rayn and GB's claim, if you're unsure. no i never said that. i said gb's claim makes little sense in the first place and that he was probably lying. but i do think rayn is VT and just super confident in his read enough / angry enough to counter claim to get gb lynched. | ||
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MoosyDoosy
United States4519 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On the basis that GB flips Mafia (which I'd put at 94.9%, with the 5% being that Rayn is more arrogant than I thought and is fake claiming as town, and 0.1% Rayn is actually mentally retarded and is CCing as mafia), I see no world where Slam is Mafia. Slam was on the GB wagon before it was cool. And it wasn't just a throwaway read, he continually pushed him all day and even tried to keep people on him at the end. And he wanted to lynch him today regardless. I have other reasons to town read him. His read on n00b was similar to mine - he thought n00b was town, or at least was not convinced he was Mafia - but he was frustrated with noob's play. His explanation of his Bresh read was weird, but weird in a good way, like he was thinking something dumb that he thought better of. Finally, he mixes filler-type posts with analysis, and his comments are both probing (ie asking questions), pro-active (ie here's what we should do) and responsive. Also he seems to be one of the few people who is correctly town reading me, so he gets points for that. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On September 08 2015 21:20 MoosyDoosy wrote: no i never said that. i said gb's claim makes little sense in the first place and that he was probably lying. but i do think rayn is VT and just super confident in his read enough / angry enough to counter claim to get gb lynched. For the reasons I've already given, I would be VERY surprised if Rayn isn't the doctor. But whatever. I disagree with you pretty strongly on this, but being wrong (in my eyes) doesn't make you Mafia. I'll read your Cake case later. Phone is about to die. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
MD: "reads" aren't the most important thing here. We have a claim and a counter-claim. Look at the circumstances. Rayn's makes sense, GB's doesn't. reads can feed into that, but having a "read" on someone like Cake, be stronger than the claim analysis just strikes me as super-duper weird. I shouldn't have to explain this. | ||
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