EPT"Peter, do you want the mystery box or the boat?"
"Well a boat is a boat but the mystery box could be anything! It could even be a boat! You know I've always wanted one of those."
Newbie Student Mafia XIV: Firefly - Page 81
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
"Peter, do you want the mystery box or the boat?" "Well a boat is a boat but the mystery box could be anything! It could even be a boat! You know I've always wanted one of those." | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On September 08 2015 21:53 Fidei86 wrote: Okay I can't help myself. MD: "reads" aren't the most important thing here. We have a claim and a counter-claim. Look at the circumstances. Rayn's makes sense, GB's doesn't. reads can feed into that, but having a "read" on someone like Cake, be stronger than the claim analysis just strikes me as super-duper weird. I shouldn't have to explain this. +1 Also like I said last night, there's one caveat to Cake being mafia and that's the fact she pushed gb most of day 1, although as I alluded to her list post, it was for bad reasons. A day 1 bus is unlikely for most people from what I understand but if gb was getting enough pressure by the time she really started pushing him, a bus situation may be more realistic. I have not looked at that quite closely yet but it was something that came to mind looking through the people that were pushing gb day 1. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43268 Posts
Doesn't help i would most likely end up arguing with scummydoosy. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
he balks d1 at not being town leader or something like that, he asks for the case on copcake, and his only scumread for what I could tell was slam which amounts to a bit of omgus. I looked into slam's read change or potential read change on superbia and it makes sense, the change based on fidei's reads on him. Someone (scott? or was it fidei?) mentioned there was a lot of questions coming from him and not a lot of "doing" with those questions. so since you're here fidei, can we talk about superbia? I think he has a pretty realistic chance of being scum. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On September 08 2015 22:01 raynpelikoneet wrote: I have literally zero reason to post until EoN2. Doesn't help i would most likely end up arguing with scummydoosy. False. We need to keep looking for the other 2 scum. Wasting a day is what the Mafia are hoping we'll do. Wow, the 1% on my phone has gone a while... | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43268 Posts
On September 08 2015 22:03 Fidei86 wrote: False. We need to keep looking for the other 2 scum. Wasting a day is what the Mafia are hoping we'll do. Not really, we are looking for 1 more scum. And at this point i am biased of thinking NM is the last scum because he cannot realize Cake cannot possibly be mafia. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
MD if you are still here who do you think the final scum could be? (assuming gb flips red and if copcake is mafia in your world) | ||
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Breshke
Australia3749 Posts
It is going to be fairly funny if mafia medic dodged not killing rayn by killing yamato when rayn is the medic. Not that yam wasn't townie in his own right | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On September 08 2015 22:05 raynpelikoneet wrote: Not really, we are looking for 1 more scum. And at this point i am biased of thinking NM is the last scum because he cannot realize Cake cannot possibly be mafia. On September 08 2015 21:58 NocturneMage wrote: Also like I said last night, there's one caveat to Cake being mafia and that's the fact she pushed gb most of day 1, although as I alluded to her list post, it was for bad reasons. A day 1 bus is unlikely for most people from what I understand but if gb was getting enough pressure by the time she really started pushing him, a bus situation may be more realistic. I have not looked at that quite closely yet but it was something that came to mind looking through the people that were pushing gb day 1. ????? I said this before last night as well. I'm scumreading cake based on her behaviour and Scott even mentioned the filter was poor list post aside. But I am willing to re-evaluate. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43268 Posts
Then why is your filter from D2 basically purely focused on telling "why Cake is mafia"? Because the townie thing to do, if you realize she isn't, is to say: "it does not matter, she cannot be mafia". Instead of these posts: On September 08 2015 09:33 NocturneMage wrote: Hang on. I kept hammering the same post home d1. Going to find it again lol. On September 08 2015 09:36 NocturneMage wrote: This is NOT my case/points, but these are some points presented against her: On September 08 2015 09:57 NocturneMage wrote: I think the case overall is excellent. #1 and 3 were points that n00bking alluded to, and #3 and #5 were similar to the ideas I was hammering home. I'm also not impressed she couldn't readily produce the associative reads off her top scum read. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
Look at page 7 of Superbia's filter we have the following - Scumread on MD that amounts to TMI on n00bking. Scumread on Fidei that is related to his voting - and he hasn't followed up since. Scumread on Alakaslam where Alakaslam mentions in each of his posts why the town read on superbia is there and why he's re-evaluating (fidei's post), he's even said he's reconsidering and still had to look up superbia. So I don't know where superbia gets "soft pushing" from. It's basically that both needed to follow up there, but the point remains. Then superbia asks md whether gb is town or mafia, and asks for the case on copcake, and he just isn't or had not done anything with it. And he was present when the claim situation went down, he has yet to vote. So I'm curious to see where he stands on fidei and md because regardless of the claim analysis there's serious lack of followup from his end, although the fact he's not even taken a stance on the claim situation just looks really bad too. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
that's why I'm talking about a possible bus in a world where gb and cake are both mafia, do I think it's likely, probably not, but her gameplay has me thinking twice. I'd hate to have just entirely ignored the possibility where someone (anyone) makes a sick bus early on in the game and then rides that cred to victory. | ||
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Alakaslam
United States17336 Posts
On September 08 2015 17:24 boxerfred wrote: I get that argumentation. But consider this: Breshke says "Lynch GB!" then GB claims doctor, Breshke says "Lynch GB!" without considering anything else, not even asking questions. I mean he was willing into the un-CC'ed doctor, right? That's not too town indicative so I strongly disagree with your point of saying "Bresh more town than Rayn". Breshke is a null for me currently. So also Yamato and Rayn (at first) | ||
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Alakaslam
United States17336 Posts
On September 08 2015 17:46 boxerfred wrote: Ah this is true. Was it Slam then who was all the way on GB and still wanted to go after him without any reonsideration? :/ You bet! A source of pride! | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43268 Posts
On September 08 2015 22:24 NocturneMage wrote: rayn, here's the thing, her play has been scummy to me, so I can't ignore that. I don't think in terms of absolutes either as the claim situation from gb is stronger than my read (or any read) on cake and I'm working backwards on that and looking at all possibilities. that's why I'm talking about a possible bus in a world where gb and cake are both mafia, do I think it's likely, probably not, but her gameplay has me thinking twice. I'd hate to have just entirely ignored the possibility where someone (anyone) makes a sick bus early on in the game and then rides that cred to victory. Let's assume you believe the second part you wrote is true. How can you possibly ever think anyone is mafia if "anything is possible"? | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
If you think my scum reading copcake is mafia driven or flawed (or with md's) I'm surprised she hasn't refuted the points made. Personally I understand the confirmation bias argument with some of the points made by md, but to me it's just when you take all those points together, you have a fairly strong case. Even if you or her think the case is bad if she was town, I don't get why she isn't carrying on and looking for the other two scum or in her world where gb and md are scum, the last scum. At some point, to me, any town just sitting back and not doing anything isn't going to help. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43268 Posts
On September 08 2015 22:31 NocturneMage wrote: and yet again I can't tell why you'd assume illogical = mafia. several situations I've observed where "illogical" townies have gotten mislynched in these games. or where townies have played suboptimally and just mafia-sided hard. If you think my scum reading copcake is mafia driven or flawed (or with md's) I'm surprised she hasn't refuted the points made. Personally I understand the confirmation bias argument with some of the points made by md, but to me it's just when you take all those points together, you have a fairly strong case. Even if you or her think the case is bad if she was town, I don't get why she isn't carrying on and looking for the other two scum or in her world where gb and md are scum, the last scum. At some point, to me, any town just sitting back and not doing anything isn't going to help. She already thinks GB and Moosydoosy are mafia and that's pretty much guaranteed 2/2 right. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On September 08 2015 22:29 raynpelikoneet wrote: Let's assume you believe the second part you wrote is true. How can you possibly ever think anyone is mafia if "anything is possible"? I don't understand where that second question comes from. It's an either/or situation: Cake is town and her push on gb was towny. Cake is mafia and had a strategy where she pushed gb for the cred. Where day 1 busses are rare, you look at someone's behavior and weigh that against (1) the timing and content of her push and (2) the behaviour of other players in the game (ie if enough of them are towny, you could poe her out) Which ultimately gauges how likely she is to be mafia. Based on my thoughts about her behaviour that is why the bus thing is still a possibility. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43268 Posts
If you want to push Cake who has been calling GB mafia all game long fine. Please do. When GB flips i will convince the town to lynch Moosydoosy. If you do continue this i will also convince the town lynch you after Moosydoosy flips scum. Because oh boy, after that you look really stupid if you are town. | ||
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