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Newbie Student Mafia XIV: Firefly - Page 82

Forum Index > TL Mafia
Post a Reply
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NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 08 2015 13:41 GMT
#1621
rayn, is the main reason you are scumreading md because yamato died? or because of his push on copcake? or a combination of both? you have scott talking about confirmation bias (which indicates a town read or a town playing suboptimally) so how is it or where is it that you think what he's doing is mafia driven (wifom aside)?

honest question, what am I missing that goes beyond you saying someone (md or myself) is illogical and is actually mafia driven?
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
September 08 2015 13:42 GMT
#1622
And this is exactly why i don't want to say anything until EoN2.
So please, everyone continue doing whatever you want to push.

I am reading, just not posting.
table for two on a tv tray
Breshke
Profile Joined July 2014
Australia3749 Posts
September 08 2015 13:44 GMT
#1623
I'm fairly confused by something you just said rayn but meh
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 08 2015 13:47 GMT
#1624
soooooooooooooooooooooo.........

Does anyone want to talk about superbia possibly being mafia?

Any takers?
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 08 2015 13:48 GMT
#1625
Or comment on what I posted (post 1612, page 81).
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 08 2015 13:50 GMT
#1626
I have a work seminar in 10 minutes so I'll be back later.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
September 08 2015 14:01 GMT
#1627
No need Nocturne. I'm already constructing a post that will likely solve the entire game. I will be absolved in your eyes.
Minimal effort.
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
September 08 2015 15:49 GMT
#1628
Slam

Maybe overreacted on slam just soft pushing me the entire time. I don't like it when the only thing he did was question my alignment for essentially more than an entire day and not reach any conclusion. Also did not like him coming into EoD at the very last moment going like "nooo", when we switched off GB who just claimed blue. Like he really wanted to kill GB (even after he claimed blue). I think this is most alignment indicative if GB is in fact red, because it kind of feels like bussing (TMI wanting to kill someone who claimed blue with seemingly no real hard reason behind). Yamato pretty much made the GB wagon, I feel like slam didn't contribute. But this could just be unfair bias (towards slam). Still wants to know where slam stands on me. After all this time I kind of expect an answer. Currently slam is null, leaning mafia. Actually after writing on other people I kind of changed my mind (slam doesn't need to be in scum team). I think slam may be town. Null for now.


Moosy

From EoD moosy probably looks the most damned, regardless of GB's alignment (though GB flipping town probably looks worse for moosy). At 4m to EoD, he essentially says he is confused and will follow rayn. Rayn then votes noobking seconds later, which is the only switch that was predictable. Then moosy comes in 1m to EoD saying he doesn't want to vote noobking and this is a bad vote. What the fuck was he expecting here? Heavily feels like mafia distancing from lynch: calling noobking town all game (except expressing doubt at certain key moments) -> expressing being fine with sheeping rayn (though it was obvious noobking was going to be the only target) -> expressing disdain at noobking lynch when it's about to go through.
I also had a gut-read on him being possibly mafia on d1 (still can't explain it, his filter just feels a little different than his usual town filter).
The fact that moosy posted an entire case on cake on demand adds to this. Why the fuck did you have that just lying around if really think she is mafia? Are you not interested in getting town on the right path?
Your entire case is also pretty nit-picky, imo. But that might just be because I think copcake is town at this point in time. And your cause does not mention the relation to noobking's alignment at all, while you were adamant on lynching cake the next day if noobking was going to flip town (he was, surprise, lolol). You have yet to explain this, and I'm waiting on it.

Also wtf:
On September 08 2015 08:06 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Superbia are you there?
Same with NocturneMage. I need my townie circle right now.

I was not in your townie circle:
+ Show Spoiler +

On September 07 2015 09:13 MoosyDoosy wrote:
ok i've calmed down a bit. this is where i'm at.

town: raynpelikoneet, NocturneMage
town lean: yamato77
null: Superbia, scott31337, boxerfred, Breshke, Alakaslam
people to look into: CopCake, Fidei86, GlowingBear

i want reads from all of my null people.
- Superbia has been asking a lot but not giving much reads which creates the illusion of a town working hard.
- boxerfred and Breshke need to participate some more.
- Alakaslam needs to do some more work and not filling his filter with useless posts. has a relaxed manner and the town read on n00bKing which i liked.

people to look into:
- GlowingBear's play was weird af at EoD. he needs to put in some work although he'll probably be sorted out by D2.
- i've already talked about CopCake.
- Fidei86 did some weird EoD things and i don't like how he's focused on me when i've answered his questions. rather he's refused to listen to them and seems to want to force a lynch on me. he's also been town reading copcake for no reason. once copcake flips scum, this is my next target.



I'm not going to lie though, I am not completely convinced myself that moosy is mafia yet. Although he has done questionable things, and his thought process is hard to discern from a townie perspective, I can still the possibility that it maybe is (from a town perspective). He is a heavy mafia lean at the moment.

I have the following questions for him:
- What did noobking's alignment have to do with cake's alignment? Why were you fine with making an associative read at that point in time? Why did you have to be bullied into voting cake by cake herself after: You think cake is mafia if noobking is town -> you think noobking is town -> ???

- What made you so wishy-washy on noobking's alignment? Your read on him during 1d went like this: town, then you had him as '???' at some point during the day, saying you would be able to read him after he posted a "big case" (which never happened). Then you called him town again. But near EoD you had suspicions again (pointing out that some of his play was reminiscent of his mafia play). Finally at pretty much EoD you said you were fine with sheeping rayn (even though it was super obvious he was likely going to switch to noobking) and then at the last moment oppose the noobking lynch (after enough votes were in). Go through that process and tell me what was going through your head. Why was noobking town at certain key points? Why was he iffy/mafia at other times? Why were you fine with sheeping rayn (specifically: when you said that, what were you expecting to happen with the lynch)?


Cake

After playing voice mafia with cake I think she's town this game. Looks similar to her voice-mafia town tells.


Scott

Calls out cake for something weird early on as being scummy, next post has her as town. No fucking idea why. Why did you flip on her so hard, scott? His hard noobking mafia read was essentially unexplained and possibly unfounded. Null, but probably town if GB flips mafia.


NocturneMage

Feels like he's solving the game. Said he didn't understand the wavering from slam on me but later studied it and agreed I suppose? Felt a little awkward. Overall feels like he's trying to ask relevant questions, put effort into the game and provide information (seems to read filters from other games too). Progression feels sort of natural. He goes into the meh-town circle.


Breshke

Had a d1 read on Breshke which I will elaborate on another day. I liked his "claiming vigi was bullshit" push on GB, but that may be bussing at this point. He's null.


BoxerFred

Lurky d1, which I think is NAI for BF (as I pointed out before his prev game he lurked d1 and he was PR, so it might be a mafia or PR thing)? I didn't really like his push on fidei (didn't really feel like it came from a townie perspective). His read progression on fidei also doesn't really make sense, as fidei was calling md mafia (iirc), which bf registered, but was still iffy about fidei's alignment after bf also started calling md mafia (similar reads???). Calls people null/mafia who have been calling GB mafia. Reads not lining up. Possible mafia. Also throws lots of null-reads around.


fidei

Actually just want to call this guy town for calling moosy mafia and I can't be bothered to spent more time reading filters at this point so I will. Enjoy your temporary town status.


Glowingbear & Rayn

A lot of the game depends on whether GB is mafia or town (if he flips town, Rayn can't get a pass). Rayn, you are hard claiming, yes? If you actually are and GB flips blue you are fucked this game. I don't give a shit how townie you have looked. If you are CCing here as VT you are also potentially preventing a (newbie) player with the real role from doing the CC. Like personally I don't give a shit about the doctor and am more than happy to trade doctor for mafia. Also looking back at it, claiming doctor is probably the worse play. Claiming cop would be better as mafia. In fact, claiming doctor allows you to get fucked super hard N1, because if there is a save you're pretty much confirmed mafia. Idk why mafia!GB would claim doc. W/e. You should definitely rescind your CC if you're VT, rayn.

That being said, after GB's weird posts (drunk/food poison stuff) at EoN I kind of expect GB to be mafia.




Solution

So, if we assume GB is scum, I think we kill the red people (with slam last, because re-reading his filter atm makes me feel like he may be town lol, so maybe breshke instead of slam) and win the game:


Final Day 1 Votecount


n00bking (7): Superbia, Fidei86, raynpelikoneet, yamato77, scott31337, GlowingBear, Alakaslam
copcake (2): moosydoosy, nocturnemage
GlowingBear (2): boxerfred, n00bking
Alakaslam (1): Breshke
scott31337 (1): CopCake

Not Voting (0):



But if GB flips doc, the game is fucked because rayn might be scum too. You'll need to kill him then. And at least one of his team members will have been hard-aligned with him. Can't be bothered making up this world atm. So much time spent already.
Minimal effort.
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
September 08 2015 15:49 GMT
#1629
And I'm never doing that again.
Minimal effort.
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
September 08 2015 15:55 GMT
#1630
LOL I wake up to see that you guys are really voting me after all.

After I'm lynched, please go after Rayn and fidei. After Rayn flips Mafia, go after fidei.
I was voting fidei because I thought that Rayn could be angry VT fake claiming because he wanted me dead. It's not the first time I would see it. But Rayn had enough time to reevaluate and play pro-town. He didn't.

It should be crystal clear that Rayn isn't the doctor even if I hadn't claimed.
I'm adorable.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 08 2015 16:19 GMT
#1631
On September 09 2015 00:55 GlowingBear wrote:
LOL I wake up to see that you guys are really voting me after all.

After I'm lynched, please go after Rayn and fidei. After Rayn flips Mafia, go after fidei.
I was voting fidei because I thought that Rayn could be angry VT fake claiming because he wanted me dead. It's not the first time I would see it. But Rayn had enough time to reevaluate and play pro-town. He didn't.

It should be crystal clear that Rayn isn't the doctor even if I hadn't claimed.

Maybe you'll have to explain why it should be clear that rayn isn't the doctor, since nobody else seems to be seeing it...
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
September 08 2015 16:26 GMT
#1632
On September 09 2015 01:19 Fidei86 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 09 2015 00:55 GlowingBear wrote:
LOL I wake up to see that you guys are really voting me after all.

After I'm lynched, please go after Rayn and fidei. After Rayn flips Mafia, go after fidei.
I was voting fidei because I thought that Rayn could be angry VT fake claiming because he wanted me dead. It's not the first time I would see it. But Rayn had enough time to reevaluate and play pro-town. He didn't.

It should be crystal clear that Rayn isn't the doctor even if I hadn't claimed.

Maybe you'll have to explain why it should be clear that rayn isn't the doctor, since nobody else seems to be seeing it...


Again?

I'll gonna explain in a list because it seems people don't read full posts.

1) at day1 asks power roles that doesn't have a vigi on their setup to claim. This doesn't makes sense if he is the doctor

2) I claim doctor, he moves away from my lynch. If he is the doctor he never does that.

3) at the start of day2, places a vote in me, but changes to moosydoosy. If he is the doctor, he places his vote on me and never let go.
I'm adorable.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 08 2015 16:42 GMT
#1633
I'll respond to this if people want, but I sort of feel that it should be Rayn to answer the accusations. I don't want to put words in his mouth.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 08 2015 16:43 GMT
#1634
On a side note - Rayn if you aren't the doctor I am going to fly to Finland and get the train up to Vantaa and kick you in the nads.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 08 2015 16:45 GMT
#1635
(I mean, if you're VT, not if you're Mafia obviously.)
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
September 08 2015 16:59 GMT
#1636
It's not for him to answer, it's for you to use your brain and realise that he can't be the doctor, never, in this game.

It is CLEAR that scum kept me alive so this could happen. Easy mislynch. And town is fucking falling for it.
I'm adorable.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 08 2015 17:28 GMT
#1637
On September 09 2015 01:26 GlowingBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 09 2015 01:19 Fidei86 wrote:
On September 09 2015 00:55 GlowingBear wrote:
LOL I wake up to see that you guys are really voting me after all.

After I'm lynched, please go after Rayn and fidei. After Rayn flips Mafia, go after fidei.
I was voting fidei because I thought that Rayn could be angry VT fake claiming because he wanted me dead. It's not the first time I would see it. But Rayn had enough time to reevaluate and play pro-town. He didn't.

It should be crystal clear that Rayn isn't the doctor even if I hadn't claimed.

Maybe you'll have to explain why it should be clear that rayn isn't the doctor, since nobody else seems to be seeing it...


Again?

I'll gonna explain in a list because it seems people don't read full posts.

1) at day1 asks power roles that doesn't have a vigi on their setup to claim. This doesn't makes sense if he is the doctor

2) I claim doctor, he moves away from my lynch. If he is the doctor he never does that.

3) at the start of day2, places a vote in me, but changes to moosydoosy. If he is the doctor, he places his vote on me and never let go.


1. IDK, this is strange, since he'd basically be outing the cop. One explanation is that, as the medic, he'd be able to save the cop n1. But yeah, this is sub-optimal play because the medic can't save the same person on consecutive nights. Just as well the cop didn't claim, I guess. Still, this doesn't make him mafia, it just makes him wrong.

2. If he hadn't moved, he would have made himself an excellent choice for blue-sniping. He was an okay choice for mafia to shoot anyway, honestly, but still. If he says "I am never ever moving off GB ever", he definitely wears the shot and the roleblock. IDK, trying to WIFOM mafia night actions is hard, but this is probably the explanation that makes most sense.

3. Meh, maybe he thought that my argument (don't lynch GB because flips will out him in due course anyway) made him think that people weren't going to be up for lynching you today, so he thought he'd lead town in a more productive direction.

In conclusion, yes, I agree the above are sub-optimal play / strange. But there is no way that they outweigh the fact that the other two options are:

- rayn is mafia, and he CC'd you, thereby ensuring his death D3, where he would have been in no difficulty otherwise. Also his CC was so early in the day that it can't have been intended to save a scum-mate under pressure - nobody was under any pressure yet! This is just a terrible, terrible, terrible play from a mafia rayn, and it seems super unlikely.
- rayn is VT. In which case he gets the aforementioned nad kicking for being the worst townie ever in the history of my experience in mafia.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
September 08 2015 17:32 GMT
#1638
There is the other, lol-worthy possibility, that he is some other blue role which isn't the doctor. He could be like the VT or the vig or something.

Actually, no, because if there's a vig in the setup, whoever it is, then they 1,000,000,000,000% shoot GB overnight, unless they're really really dumb. IDK whether the other setup (cop/JK is possible either) ... in that scenario if he was the JK he doesn't claim because he can't save himself I don't think, and if he's the cop then he doesn't know you're not the actual medic.

So yeah, those possibilities aren't worth discussing.
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
September 08 2015 17:43 GMT
#1639
There is nothing sub-optimal in my play because i literally thought both of GB and noobking are mafia and i am sure as hell not gonna out myself on D1 if i am 99% sure i am lynching mafia anyways.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
September 08 2015 17:46 GMT
#1640
N1 there are only three plausible scenarios, from likeliest to unlikeliest:
1) GlowingBear is mafia and does not get shot
2) I doc GlowingBear (which i did) in case he is just a terrible townie saving his own skin from getting lynched by fakeclaiming -> noone dies -> GB is confirmed town
3) I die -> GB is confirmed mafia.
table for two on a tv tray
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