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On September 08 2015 22:36 NocturneMage wrote:Show nested quote +On September 08 2015 22:29 raynpelikoneet wrote:On September 08 2015 22:24 NocturneMage wrote:
rayn, here's the thing, her play has been scummy to me, so I can't ignore that. I don't think in terms of absolutes either as the claim situation from gb is stronger than my read (or any read) on cake and I'm working backwards on that and looking at all possibilities.
that's why I'm talking about a possible bus in a world where gb and cake are both mafia, do I think it's likely, probably not, but her gameplay has me thinking twice. I'd hate to have just entirely ignored the possibility where someone (anyone) makes a sick bus early on in the game and then rides that cred to victory. Let's assume you believe the second part you wrote is true. How can you possibly ever think anyone is mafia if "anything is possible"? I don't understand where that second question comes from. It's an either/or situation: Cake is town and her push on gb was towny. Cake is mafia and had a strategy where she pushed gb for the cred. Where day 1 busses are rare, you look at someone's behavior and weigh that against (1) the timing and content of her push and (2) the behaviour of other players in the game (ie if enough of them are towny, you could poe her out) Which ultimately gauges how likely she is to be mafia. Based on my thoughts about her behaviour that is why the bus thing is still a possibility.
The funny thing is that I looked at a game where rayn + CopCake were mafia. And guess what! She made shitty scum cases on rayn from D1 and throughout the whole game which the other townies cleared up, making them both look townie off of it.
...Sound like GB + CopCake? Nah, I'm probably wrong right?
Continuing to read.
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also rayn get ur head out from between ur legs, ur bias for CopCake is over 9000. i noted it at the start of the game and knew i was probs gonna get lynched if i even mentioned Coppy was mafia but l0l it's actually happening.
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hey md, I have a question for you......I took a crazy dive into cake's filter because her gameplay is so scummy - you are okay with a gb lynch, and given claim analysis gb flips mafia, that is the world for now.
what is mafia motivation for cake to make a sick bus on gb for cred? that was theory 2 and I evaluated the areas where she could be bussing, but the points (mafia motivation) don't add up.
I typed out a long post. hold on.
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On September 09 2015 05:32 MoosyDoosy wrote:
The funny thing is that I looked at a game where rayn + CopCake were mafia. And guess what! She made shitty scum cases on rayn from D1 and throughout the whole game which the other townies cleared up, making them both look townie off of it.
...Sound like GB + CopCake? Nah, I'm probably wrong right?
Continuing to read.
- what is the game in question? link please? it wasn't tropical storm I don't think...
so you are saying cake has a history of bussing d1? let me post what I have - we can discuss - if there are enough parallels, then you have a case.
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On September 09 2015 03:31 Fidei86 wrote:
I liked Superbia's effort in his list post earlier, but I totally disagree with his Slam read. I basically think I need to get to grips with Cake, because I think figuring out her alignment will make this a bunch easier. I'm out this evening but I'll be back on tonight.
at current count, I am counting 4-5 people saying cake isn't mafia based on the whole voice mafia thing. despite rayn asking why I wasn't listening to him on cake being town I explained I wasn't trusting one read (and I was town reading rayn/null on yamato until after eod but still didn't matter). with more people saying this, well not all of you can be mafia, so going to rely on ockham's razor for this one.
given rayn's long posts of reactions - I can see why he'd delay wanting to claim like that and what he did with gb. also I don't see why the mafia would risk 9% chance of hitting the medic save (1/11 chance) and the optimum play for mafia is to kill the doctor (or jailer, neither can ever save themselves) which is a guaranteed kill. rayns reasons make sense. agreed that gb is the lynch today.
that doesn't change for me.
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that all said, running on the assumption that gb is and will flip mafia and given my suspicions of cake given her overall gameplay in this game, I decided to check into how early she was going off on gb.
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/493411-newbie-student-mafia-xiv-firefly?page=12#229
post 229 - first questioning of gb - how is rayn mafia - 2h into the game
nothing from her on gb at all until:
post 698 is list post/mafia lean on gb about 23h into the day. so that's pretty early to try and bus I feel.
- even if she's right on scumreading gb correctly, the reasons are a bit shaky as stated before but the timing is pretty damn early for the bus or even since it was "mafia lean" it is still pretty early to draw attention like that to a partner when n00bking and md were higher on the radar
next 20-24h elapse - no real pushing on gb although she keeps continually listing him as a scumread under n00bking/md
closer to eod -
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/493411-newbie-student-mafia-xiv-firefly?page=59#1178
post 1178 - I actually cannot see a mafia motivation for a partner initially voting gb prior to the claim when she states preference for two other people (one of we know now is a mislynch, mafia would push the mislynch)
- the only thing I can think of again is a sick bus situation where that was communicated in mafia qt, but again, this goes against the more likely logic of her (1) not drawing attention to cake (2) voting a partner over a mislynch
this post is actually townie if you think about it
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/493411-newbie-student-mafia-xiv-firefly?page=64#1270
post 1270 - gb claiming with scant time left gives town no time to think, not sure why she'd call a partner on it
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tldr - assuming gb flips mafia, copcake might actually be town.
- too early drawing negative attention to gb (23h into the 48h cycle)
- voting gb pre-claim when a mislynch was more easily available
- calling out gb not claiming earlier 3m prior to eod
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caveat - now of course again, this is assuming gb flips mafia. if gb flips blue/green, then as superbia said, real problem on our hands, and to me, copcake is in even more trouble given the manner she pushed gb (nevermind n00bking although that read actually made sense when the others didn't) and this also fits in line with superbia saying that rayn doesn't get a pass and scum is likely in someone that hard aligned with him - she being a major candidate.
but not thinking caveat world yet unless gb flips town
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On September 09 2015 05:37 NocturneMage wrote:
hey md, I have a question for you......I took a crazy dive into cake's filter because her gameplay is so scummy - you are okay with a gb lynch, and given claim analysis gb flips mafia, that is the world for now.
what is mafia motivation for cake to make a sick bus on gb for cred? that was theory 2 and I evaluated the areas where she could be bussing, but the points (mafia motivation) don't add up.
I typed out a long post. hold on.
It's not even a "sick bus". Look through her filter. Literally all her posts throughout this game have been weak cases designed to scum read everyone. The only person she's basically been buddying with is rayn as he's the town leader. At this point it's not even a "sick bus." She's just scum reading everyone, posts little, tries to rile up others, and comes off looking townie because people think she's trying to do work in the thread and there's no way to associate with others because she's already scum read them (besides rayn).
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so md, if she has a history of bussing my question to you is how early did she call out her partner?
where is the game in question?
looked at the database - there is no listing under copcake
unless I'm being an idiot again
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On September 09 2015 05:44 NocturneMage wrote:
so md, if she has a history of bussing my question to you is how early did she call out her partner?
where is the game in question?
looked at the database - there is no listing under copcake
unless I'm being an idiot again
the database has been outdated for a long time l0l. i only have one of my games listed there. ugh. you're making me go back and look for her past scum games.
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On September 09 2015 05:32 MoosyDoosy wrote:
The funny thing is that I looked at a game where rayn + CopCake were mafia.
which game would that be?
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On September 09 2015 05:41 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2015 05:37 NocturneMage wrote:
hey md, I have a question for you......I took a crazy dive into cake's filter because her gameplay is so scummy - you are okay with a gb lynch, and given claim analysis gb flips mafia, that is the world for now.
what is mafia motivation for cake to make a sick bus on gb for cred? that was theory 2 and I evaluated the areas where she could be bussing, but the points (mafia motivation) don't add up.
I typed out a long post. hold on. It's not even a "sick bus". Look through her filter. Literally all her posts throughout this game have been weak cases designed to scum read everyone. The only person she's basically been buddying with is rayn as he's the town leader. At this point it's not even a "sick bus." She's just scum reading everyone, posts little, tries to rile up others, and comes off looking townie because people think she's trying to do work in the thread and there's no way to associate with others because she's already scum read them (besides rayn).
you misunderstood.
I don't mean copcake bussing rayn.
I mean copcake bussing gb. I know where you are getting the sentiment of copcake buddying to rayn but that's not what I'm discussing.
I agree her list post is overall terrible. I agree her overall gameplay has been terrible. however I'm not debating this.
that wasnt' up for debate.
that's why I looked at her even closer because we're in the world where gb flips red because it's generally NOT likely scum bus d1.
but I am asking you to consider the mitigating factors that don't make sense from a mafia perspective.
namely what I bolded in my wall of text.
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also @Superbia:
I already explained this to Fidei. My read progression was as follows:
1. n00bKing is town.
2. Everyone scum reads n00bKing.
3. Me: ???...maybe I'm wrong
4. n00bKing posts more of his usual stuff
5. Me: n00bKing is town.
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On September 09 2015 05:48 NocturneMage wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2015 05:41 MoosyDoosy wrote:On September 09 2015 05:37 NocturneMage wrote:
hey md, I have a question for you......I took a crazy dive into cake's filter because her gameplay is so scummy - you are okay with a gb lynch, and given claim analysis gb flips mafia, that is the world for now.
what is mafia motivation for cake to make a sick bus on gb for cred? that was theory 2 and I evaluated the areas where she could be bussing, but the points (mafia motivation) don't add up.
I typed out a long post. hold on. It's not even a "sick bus". Look through her filter. Literally all her posts throughout this game have been weak cases designed to scum read everyone. The only person she's basically been buddying with is rayn as he's the town leader. At this point it's not even a "sick bus." She's just scum reading everyone, posts little, tries to rile up others, and comes off looking townie because people think she's trying to do work in the thread and there's no way to associate with others because she's already scum read them (besides rayn). you misunderstood. I don't mean copcake bussing rayn. I mean copcake bussing gb. I know where you are getting the sentiment of copcake buddying to rayn but that's not what I'm discussing. I agree her list post is overall terrible. I agree her overall gameplay has been terrible. however I'm not debating this. that wasnt' up for debate. that's why I looked at her even closer because we're in the world where gb flips red because it's generally NOT likely scum bus d1. but I am asking you to consider the mitigating factors that don't make sense from a mafia perspective. namely what I bolded in my wall of text.
yes i was talking about copcake busing gb. look at her filter. she literally scum read or null read everyone except for the town leader. how are you supposed to make an association off of that l0l.
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On September 09 2015 05:48 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2015 05:32 MoosyDoosy wrote:
The funny thing is that I looked at a game where rayn + CopCake were mafia. which game would that be?
Moosydoosy answer asap-.
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On September 09 2015 05:48 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2015 05:32 MoosyDoosy wrote:
The funny thing is that I looked at a game where rayn + CopCake were mafia. which game would that be?
I know, can't find that in the database. she isn't even in the database.
I asked because I wanted to compare/contrast when/how copcake bussed in a game she was said to have bussed. I've pointed out the key issues in this game, now to see if that matches up.
md, we need the game in question please.
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On September 09 2015 05:50 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2015 05:48 raynpelikoneet wrote:On September 09 2015 05:32 MoosyDoosy wrote:
The funny thing is that I looked at a game where rayn + CopCake were mafia. which game would that be? Moosydoosy answer asap-.
one moment i'm still answering questions. u tunneled fool can wait.
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On September 09 2015 05:51 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2015 05:50 raynpelikoneet wrote:On September 09 2015 05:48 raynpelikoneet wrote:On September 09 2015 05:32 MoosyDoosy wrote:
The funny thing is that I looked at a game where rayn + CopCake were mafia. which game would that be? Moosydoosy answer asap-. one moment i'm still answering questions. u tunneled fool can wait.
asnwer right now, then you can do what the fuck you want to
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ohkay it was a different person nvm -.-
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because the thing is i have never been mafia with cake on tl
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On September 09 2015 05:46 MoosyDoosy wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2015 05:44 NocturneMage wrote:
so md, if she has a history of bussing my question to you is how early did she call out her partner?
where is the game in question?
looked at the database - there is no listing under copcake
unless I'm being an idiot again the database has been outdated for a long time l0l. i only have one of my games listed there. ugh. you're making me go back and look for her past scum games.
MD this is simply not true.
On September 08 2015 11:41 kitaman27 wrote:
Filter links have been updates as of 9/7/15.
Filter links were updated yesterday.
I followed personality mafia. kitaman aliased as judgejudy - most recent game finished.
so how is it that personality mafia is in the database and this game you cite is not?
updated but yesterday.
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On September 09 2015 05:48 MoosyDoosy wrote:
also @Superbia:
I already explained this to Fidei. My read progression was as follows:
1. n00bKing is town.
2. Everyone scum reads n00bKing.
3. Me: ???...maybe I'm wrong
4. n00bKing posts more of his usual stuff
5. Me: n00bKing is town.
I can prove the bolded wrong.
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EPT
