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Newbie Student Mafia XIV: Firefly - Page 7

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 12 2015 01:08 GMT
#2266
ebwop - just realised I had a massive typo in there from copy/paste.

Second sentence of my last post should read:

You basically said superbia had shit all on you so how are people's feedback on the conversation (even if you disagree with that) changing your read on superbia without superbia doing anything himself to warrant that change in read?
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 12 2015 01:44 GMT
#2269
On September 12 2015 10:31 MoosyDoosy wrote:
I honestly don't understand what you're seeing here NocturneMage. Can you explain in simple English or like in one or two sentences please.


basically I'm questioning breshke's read progression on superbia, and especially with that last post. why does he scumread (presumably) superbia and then with that last post say "people saying the convo is useless" makes him town. there's nothing in the conversation to justify that read.

fidei's statement on them coming out of nowhere (well at least for breshke, I'm still reading on superbia) is correct at least for breshke - at least after I looked at his filter. The pressure on superbia comes from practically nowhere.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 12 2015 01:46 GMT
#2270
On September 12 2015 10:34 Breshke wrote:
nocturne why did superbia change his read on me


atm I'm still reading his filter - two main list posts he's left you out I see that but still going through his filter.

but I don't think fidei is mafia for his observations, and certainly not the push on you. not from what I remember reading at first.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 12 2015 02:07 GMT
#2273
On September 12 2015 10:47 Breshke wrote:
Also let me explain what i mean. So me and superbia had a discussion that involved the possible role the doctor. We both gave reads one each other from it.

From that conversation noone other than moosey has commented on what we actually said and has just burshed it off as being a useless shitfight about roles.

Like you think im mafia and you don't even comment on why superbia thinks im mafia instead you jsut say the entire conversation was useless. Fidei did much the same.

This leads me to a conclusion that people are happy with me and superbia going at it because we could both be town and two towns going at it is good for mafia.


read from 2264, I'm not saying your conversation useless, I know superbia's conclusion on you was clear the first time I read it. I'm more focused on how your reads evolved from BEFORE the conversation, THROUGH the conversation and AFTER it - and I'm doing the same with superbia.

There are parts I did not like about you in there, and it was not because I thought the conversation was useless. I am questioning the town motivation for talking about the PRs the way you did.

Capisce?
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 12 2015 02:08 GMT
#2274
ebwop - I'm not saying your conversation was useless.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 12 2015 02:21 GMT
#2275
superbia on breshke

initial read post 184/192/195 - he says breshke is town, rescinds read in 234 based on "bitter" tone

list posts in 948 and 1093 - leaves off Breshke entirely
- but list post in 1628, null reads him saying that the push on GB is potentially bussing

On September 11 2015 07:35 Superbia wrote:
I think doctor claims here tbh, unless for some reason you didn't save rayn. I'll figure it out when I get back. First gonna chill more w/ gf.


that quote itself is null - not sure if he honestly forgot doctor cannot save twice in a row or if he tried to bait the doctor.

posts 2090-2095 (filter pages 8-9) he's scumreading Breshke based on process of elimination. that I can follow...

in post 2116 I can follow the conversation between you and superbia - I can follow where he poes you.

I don't understand the "pr or mafia" rationale or why someone would or should act differently if they are a pr. you'd think that if someone acted differently to avoid mafia it would make it easier for mafia to find the pr.

I think it's faulty reasoning but I don't think this is necessarily an exclusively mafia way of doing things.

in any case, it was pretty clear to me how superbia came to scumread you at the beginning of the shoutfest,

the progression on his end leading into the beginning of the conversation was more natural - it made sense, he followed up on his very early game read on you, and him poeing you made him re-consider the null read he had from his list post.

going through the heart of the conversation now.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 12 2015 02:37 GMT
#2277
And I don't think your "after" read remotely makes sense, it is a jump in logic.

Also I traced your filter and I saw no reference to meta, I saw in post 1961 the "you make me wanna lynch you" but there was no reference to meta.

so you are arguing that superbia plays lurky as scum? student mafia? campus mafia? which game is this?
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 12 2015 02:43 GMT
#2278
meh, alright, I'm assuming it's the campus mafia game, in database now.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/469857-campus-mafia-new-newish-players-welcome?user=superbia

16 page filter over 7 days. That's an average of 2 1/3 pages per 72h cycle if my maths is correct.

right now he's 11 pages and we're halfway through d3.

he's in and out, and content has been sporadic. not unreasonable.

but still I take issue with you on the him evaluating on you not being PR. he followed up that pretty well I think.

(1) he questioned the motivation for the doctor questions
(2) he explained his world of why you weren't a PR, and it was based on a) his reads and b) process of elimination.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 12 2015 02:45 GMT
#2279
On September 12 2015 11:30 Breshke wrote:
I've explained the "after" read.

The before read was me sheeting rayn plus there was some game ages ago (not on pc so can't link it) it was a student or campus mafia game and superbia was the last scum alive and I remember him being semi lurky there. That's why I ignored moosey before and started voting superbia because I know he can and will lurk to victory as scum.

The "during" read is weird to explain but at the time I didn't really believe that superbias bitter=or/mafia read was genuine. I also didn't believe the reason he gave for why he stopped considering that I could be a PR.


so the first sentence means you had a mafia read on superbia based on tone, then what do you think of his comparison on rayn's scumread of you for (nearly?) the same thing? why was this unreasonable?

Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 12 2015 02:46 GMT
#2280
ebwop from 2278 - he's in and out and content had been sporadic up to the point he pushed you hard.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 12 2015 02:50 GMT
#2282
On September 12 2015 08:54 Breshke wrote:
I'm fairly sure I would not lynch MD today

Fidei saying that myself and superbia came back to the thread is really fckn contrived I was around way early than him talking to moosey

Also the amount of people saying that mine and superbias discussion was useless is making me think he is town. It wasn't useless, you see us talking about pr's but not why it involved both of us making a read on the other and the fact that both BF and fidei come into the thread call it a shitfight and useless but don't comment on any of the reads me or superbia made from it makes me think one of them is mafia


so from this post you think fidei is mafia?

you have eliminated super and md I think? or null on md or considering a fidei/md world?

who is the third mafia in your books?
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 12 2015 03:03 GMT
#2283
final mafia? this is where I am

I'm pretty sure slam is town, I have nulls on copcake, boxerfred.

I had a townread on fidei, but I need to see more closely what he picked out in the conversation, although at first glance it would appear he did not read as closely into the conversation as he could have. I'd have to agree with you on that one.

does it make fidei mafia? well he's voting breshke, so I'm also doubting that. you afk was NAI, but he also agrees the doctor side of the conversation doesn't serve the purpose to help town. I agree with that part.

copcake still concerns me based on lack of input (I did see her post on the superbia/breshke interaction) but if she is a tone reader like she said she was, I would expect her to evaluate people on tone, or at least do more of it. right now she's not meeting her own standards
- has her read on moosy changed? she was on him for early game for example
- her penguin picture makes me think she's townreading superbia (and from the subsequent post) alakaslam

scott is unlikely based on gb's push on him the first cycle

right now I'm in breshke plus one of copcake/boxerfred world
- moosydoosy is under review for the latest interaction but offhand on first read nothing he's said makes him look scummy

overall with the superbia/breshke interaction breshke is the more likely mafia of the two. (yes I know moosy is in there too but that's where I stand now) it's possible there's double bussing but after looking at superbia's side of things from the beginning of his filter especially, I think superbia's rationale from start to end makes sense from a town perspective.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 12 2015 03:17 GMT
#2284
On September 12 2015 05:16 boxerfred wrote:
It's so fucking hard to keep up with that thread. The last ~5 pages were lots of bullshit about power roles that is a totally irrelevant discussion. Whatever one thinks who is a power role will only help scum if he talks about it. The whole PR stuff is pointless. How is that even perceived as a push?

Here is my stance on the game: I'm a low activity poster. I'm aware that it should be easy for scum to set me up for a mislynch based on this. Whenever I come in the thread, I have to read another 20 pages of spammy shit. It would be great if you guys could just get back on track and think about where to locate scum or where to lynch to gain as much information as possible.

We are in a situation where it's likely that mafia knows since D2 that they'll lose a member. Since they insta-shot rayn during the night, mafia were SURE that he's the doctor. Right? Right? That makes me feel like the kill itself was a scum slip in terms of the setup. The Doctor setup is likely as fuck. I talked about this already earlier.

So what is scum supposed to do (as a team)? They'll try to get a mislynch, they are in desperate need for that especially after rayn flipped VT and not blue. So I'm really interested in who pushes MD and why they do so. Especially if MD is indeed lynched and flips green. At this point I don't think town can come further by evaluating people on scummy behavior but moreso by evaluating people in terms of town indications. It's one way to find indicators for scum alignment to win the game. Another way is to find indicators of town alignment on everyone else. We followed the first way and it got us GB, cool, great! However I think while we should not abandon that completely, we should consider focussing more on town reads.

At this point, I have the following town reads:

- scott (even forgot why, need to check, however don't have the time)
- superbia (reasons stated in my huge case)
- Alakaslam. What i remember the most of him is a) his spammy/hard to read playstyle, b) some posts where he points out scummy behaviour of me. since there was no follow up on this, I think it's a town indication. Also he was continuesly willing to hammer GB.

Followed by my null reads:

- Breshke. Not remembering anything in particular, however he got in a shitflinging discussion with Superbia, derailing shit. Cool - not.
- Fidei. Pointed out some scum indicators in his play, he answered genuinely. I think he's not doing enough for town to actually be labeled a townie. Seems more interested in defending/surviving than in actually finding scum. Needs to step up.
- CopCake. Don't remember particularly much. Hard to read. Voted with the main wagons.
- MoosyDoosy. Need to look into more. I think his flip would give us a lot of information, however it might easily be a mislynch for scum. Good thing would be to stop pressuring him but instead give him some breathing room and let him do town work. Especially his last posts feel a lot like frustrated town. Can't tell.
- NocturneMage. Where is this guy?

Yes, I don't have scumreads, yolo. Would lynch between MD/NM since Breshke is at least here.


considering I'm also a relatively low volume poster and I also hate spam, I think I'm just around when you are not and vice versa.

few questions for you before I go to bed.

(1) you townread superbia based on your large case or whatever - you certainly looked at the "shitflinging discussion" with superbia - so do you think superbia is any less town based on that?

(2) in your nulls, you have 3 people you are citing as you can't remember much on, plus moosy that you are relatively keen on lynching. there are only 2 mafia left. you are seemingly pressed for time, so how do you go about finding or narrowing down that? (let alone trying to draw the 8 or whatever townreads when you have a lot of null at the moment)

(3) you say breshke is "derailing" shit so a) how is that still a null and b) how is "breshke being here" a valid point for not lynching him if you are citing issues with him?

(4) for fidei you are saying he's more interested in "defending/surviving" than in actually scumhunting.
a) can you quote or cite where he's done this - or why you get that impression from his filter
b) by your standards this is mafia mentality so fidei in your world should be a scumread - in newbie 13 my coach told us in the scum qt that mafia have the need to survive and that's their thing, hence this point.

I think 3 and 4 are the more important questions to me especially as I think fidei is town (barring me tripping up on something weird tomorrow) and I think breshke is mafia at this time.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 12 2015 03:18 GMT
#2285
it's after 4am. will be around later today. end of cycle I should be here. good night.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 12 2015 18:29 GMT
#2370
I have 10 minutes of a breather to spare here....

On September 13 2015 03:10 Superbia wrote:
Why do people think fidei is town btw?


on mobile, work until 2000, unless something blows up in the next hour, but wanted to say to superbia

offhand on a notepad at home, I had the main thing against him was voting off wagon d1 but in his favour I had some of the posts that showed some detailed thoughts/direction. when I went through his filter, I couldn't see intentional misdirection.

Earlier I compared fidei's play here to the newbie 12 game and personality, both which I obsereved, when you consider how stuck a lot of people seem to be here with their reads (not a whole lot of overly resolute reads) it is not out of possibility that fidei could also be playing suboptimally as town.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 12 2015 18:30 GMT
#2372
ebwop - 2100, not 2000

anyhow

as for scott being mafia, this is possible but I thought it was unlikely.

if he went on gb then that means they double bussed. that I think would be less likely, much less likely. but this means I'd have to do the same timeline check of pushes that I did on copcake to be sure.

superbia mentions tmi, so I am curious as to what posts he mentions that indicates that, but I am sure I will see it myself when I timeline him.

back to work, will do my best to dig through when I get off.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 12 2015 18:35 GMT
#2377
right now, my vote is on breshke.

if it's not copcake or boxerfred (and honestly boxer is by poe), then someone's playing town hard. a bus is possible which is why I want to check scott's filter. not sure offhand who else was considered on gb too early.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 12 2015 18:36 GMT
#2379
On September 13 2015 03:30 MoosyDoosy wrote:
noooo don't go i cri everytiem </3


I know it's saturday night here - if you're around closer to eod, hopefully others are too.

I hear weekends on tl are pretty inactive. understandable but doesn't help town today.

away I go until later.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 12 2015 20:12 GMT
#2464
on my way home from work.

unvoted Breshke.

going to look through scott and then fidei and then the two nulls.

superbia I don't understand the Slam TMI argument.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
September 12 2015 20:14 GMT
#2467
On September 13 2015 05:08 Fidei86 wrote:
Why did the mafia not roleblock rayn as the *confirmed* doctor? That makes so little sense to me. They would have had to believe that rayn was not actually the doctor ... ? And then they correctly guessed that Breshke was the doctor?

???

This game.


gb had a read (somehow) that rayn wasn't the doctor. he would have guided that decision, something about the reactions when the claims came in. cant remember fully offhand.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
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