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KelsierSC
United Kingdom10443 Posts
On July 13 2015 21:31 MoosyDoosy wrote: Yeah I don't necessarily read it in that way. It could have just been townies that would have sheeped the case on me. very well, retracted | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Town: Fidei, myself, NK Probable town: KSC Town lean/maybe town: MD Null: Ghandi, WP, SW, Grokken Null/Policy: Scott Scumlean: NHM Probable scum: TJHuggins Grokken's thread sentiment point I did query that earlier and I think noob, you mentioned that too, do you think this response makes sense for the read change? Not sure if you missed it. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/488742-newbie-student-mafia-xii?page=11#210 | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On July 13 2015 21:37 Fidei86 wrote: Has anyone ever been in a game with a successful D1 lynch? This is kind of new territory for me, I'm used to going straight through to LYLO with mislynches... Yes, twice, once as each alignment, though. Can you tie Sulfurus to anyone else, maybe? I guess that's what you are asking? | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
For what it's worth, I agree that it's more likely than not that Moosy is town. The chance of both wagons being mafia d1 has to be pretty remote, given that there were plenty of policy lynches (NHM and Scott) that definitely could have gotten traction, but didn't. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On July 13 2015 21:40 Half the Sky wrote: But Fidei it really does not happen often, just above a quarter of the time (the actual figure is in the database somewhere but it's something like that). That's okay, I don't mind you carrying me in DOTA *and* in mafia :D | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On July 13 2015 21:39 Half the Sky wrote: Yes, twice, once as each alignment, though. Can you tie Sulfurus to anyone else, maybe? I guess that's what you are asking? I was more wondering whether there were any specific things that people have noticed about d1 lynch games, which might be useful here.. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
The short answer is that both individuals in my cases were caught out more or less because of meta. In Linux, the person who got nailed D1 was done so because he was more lurky than his town meta and he didn't followup on important points he made. He also showed a little too much concern for getting killed Night 1 (and he was getting killed N1 a lot) so he made excuses to not play D1. Additionally he made a very awkward turnabout read on a player that claimed blue D1. In Not Themed, the scummer who got lynched did so because he has a known meta where he contributes little and does nothing as scum. The individual who would have gotten lynched otherwise wound up being blue and people didn't lynch him even though his gameplay was scummy, so he wound up being the fallback alternative. The problem for town was that several townies were playing poor so it was easy to take advantage and neither myself nor my remaining teammate were ever caught. TLDR - D1 lynches come down to how organised town is, and why the lynches occur also lend some insight as to how they will progress later in the game. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On July 13 2015 22:07 Fidei86 wrote: Also, I think this is probably worth saying - if there is a medic, they should 100% try and save HTS this evening. She is probably the most town-read person (maybe along side me), but given that she just nailed Sulfurus in one post, I definitely think she's towns biggest asset right now. She's definitely smarter than me, anyway Awwwww <3 | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
I'm going to take the bullet for you, bodyguard style | ||
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WonnaPlay
Netherlands912 Posts
I'll be honest, I wasn't planning on voting for Sulfurus when I was awake, since I had no argument against him, but seeing the last posts do give a bit of a tell... I would have probably voted for Kelsier, since he still makes nonsense conclusions without any background or maybe MD, because of his style... Even in the end Kelsier seems to just follow blindly, but did vote for the scum, so eventhough I really dislike his way of playing, I think he's a town after all. I doubt scum would vote on one of their own in the first day, but then again, this would be a very strong play, especially against us "noobies". I'm also unsure if it's smart to post my thoughts during the night, but f*ck it.. : I'm unsure how to handle people that aren't here at all (eventhough I messed up aswell these first days :/), since Scott and NHM have absolutely done nothing to contribute. Also Ghandi's posts are very, very contradicting with eachother: [quote so Day 1 we might as well just flush out all of the lurkers, which I may work on when I get off work in a couple hours.[/quote] I'm strictly against considering policy lynches this early in the day. I'm saying we should get everyone to start talking because lurkers quickly become scapegoats, Sorry about being useless/afk, small stuff that takes priority came up. From now on I have my full attention on the game, will drop in my current reads (spoilers; I don't trust Moose) later. Right after this, goes AFK again..? | ||
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Onegu
United States9699 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
/sigh ... Kidding. Welcome TT! | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
And Tictock would appear to be a relatively easy player to read. I'd know, I coached him as town in NSM10 *happy dance* On July 13 2015 21:41 Fidei86 wrote: @HTS My list is basically exactly the same as yours, which is encouraging. I'm thinking the same on TJH, but I haven't had time to properly filter dive yet. Was there anything in particular you wanted to flag up, so I could keep my eyes open for it? Oh my, I realised I missed this question. Hold on. Grabbing relevant quotes. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
+ Show Spoiler [initial read] + On July 12 2015 01:49 TJHuggins wrote: My initial reads so far is that i am town leaning on Fidei. I like the things he said in relation to spamming, and I think that him relating the perspective to a previous game where he was town feels like he's looking at the game from the perspective of a town. When he responded to HTS regarding talking about anti-spam being easy, he seems genuine. Or maybe it's just because I like his writing. No clue. My initial scum read is Grokken. It's nothing all that strong but I'm getting a wierd feeling about the things he's posted. To me it feels like he is trying to find ways to participate and seem town by chiming in now and again but really has no clue what to write about. I think that one sentence posts that appear to contribute to the game and don't really offer anything just kind of irk me the wrong way. I guess it's worth noting he did write that thing about Dota as well which was also one sentence but that's neither here nor there when it comes to the game I think. When I went back and read the post about him showing off his dota stats that actually reads to me a bit more towny now that I think about it, so not really sure. just an initial read. This post, there's an agenda in the sense that this read lacks context. First quote was part of a joke between him and Ghandi, and nothing should be made of it and TJH tried to. Second quote, there was reason to question NHM and that question isn't for naught. Overall he's making something out of nothing. I also feel he did the same thing when he tried to pin Fidei for the wording on MD earlier. + Show Spoiler [followup - "town prodding"] + On July 12 2015 03:10 TJHuggins wrote: I agree that it was grokken's town prodding question that got me suspicious of him in the first place. Then right after he says "this posts doesn't really offer anything" he then says it's a "town prodding question" (which noob called him out for anyways) so then why did he say before that it doesn't really offer anything? The wording association between those two quotes is really awkward. + Show Spoiler [comment on Sulfurus] + On July 13 2015 07:14 TJHuggins wrote: I so strongly felt that MD is the most obvious mafia there could possible be... I was going to be so mad if Sulfuras flipped town. Now I'm not so sure since sulfuras was voting on MD. I need to reread Sulfuras posts to see why he was voting on MD. Now TJH already had Sulfurus as 2 on his list of scummies so why would he need to reread it - additionally there was nothing Sulfur even said on MD which was the biggest issue I had. + Show Spoiler [Kelsier scumread] + On July 12 2015 23:16 TJHuggins wrote: Kelsier, I'm wondering if you would care to explain what factors weighed in on your decision here to vote for Wonnaplay as opposed to Grokken when from your previous post it appears you considered them equally scummy for the same reason? On July 12 2015 23:18 TJHuggins wrote: I think it's more like: Act like a fool and get town read for it. This one is pretty simple - he appears scumread Kelsier and then he drops that read altogether in his lynch list. Or at least it's not clear why he dropped him or where he stands on him now. TLDR - there's a bit of awkward progression and grasping for straws with the scumreads he's putting in. Also his reaction post-lynch was a bit more subdued and I'm ignoring the issues he's had with the mods, I'm more specifically talking about the "mod error I'll take it" post. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
I'm going to be a little touch and go with posting untill sometime late tomorow. I'm still on Holiday, but right at the end of it. I'll need to reread things now that I'm official part of the game, but I think HtS and n00b are pretty much for sure town for how D1 played out. MD is also very likely town, but his posting sucks. I'll be back a little later to share some scum reads. | ||
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