Newbie Student Mafia X - Page 103
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plotspot
800 Posts
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boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
On May 31 2015 07:41 Barakos wrote: mathematical technicality... I was blocked on a night, where a kill happend... one of mafia has to deliver the kill. So there is a chance, that if I was mafia, I would have delivered the kill, which would not have happened, if I was blocked... It's not much, but makes me "more green" than bunnies. my head hurts but yes I get the point | ||
27ninjabunnies
United States2486 Posts
On May 31 2015 07:43 plotspot wrote: and SL kinda make sense, he pointed out I should look at the interactions at 10 minutes before the EoD3. in the last 10 min Bats switches his vote on bunnies saying that if she was Mafia she would care, and since Sulfurus was there and cared, he thought Sulfurus was mafia. Then bunnies show up and he is totally caught by surprise, maybe because they said in their Scum QT that she should just afk and let him handle the rest? That was my thoughts, when I started to see what SL meant. Okay, now that bats has flipped as cop, what is your read on me? You know im not mafia with bats who has a greencheck on me. Do you think that interaction was based on an actuall read on me as town, or do you still view me as possible mafia? I need to know your thoughts on this. | ||
27ninjabunnies
United States2486 Posts
I think tonight we need to focus on reading between SL/ dis/ and BF. All three i will filter later on. Im treating the green check on barakos as an actual greencheck just because i am readin him town, so mafia could very well be two between those 3. SL I want to look closely at for the proposition to plots of RB a cop claim. Ill need to see his reasoning on it. If you have any questions, just @ me | ||
sicklucker
Canada16987 Posts
On May 31 2015 06:57 Barakos wrote: don't block tictock.. he is like the only confirmed town besides you. potential mafia at this point are bunnies, disfo, boxer, sl. (bats too, but blocking him seems pointless, cause he is most likely killed tonight, if he is actually cop) If I were you, I'd pick one of those. Not saying anything more. ^^ Someone said pick someone, who seems towny, cause this might make for a surprise... or pick the most scummy, caus mafia might suspect you to pick someone town.. just please block out of the 4 names. i dont think a mafia ever tells a town pr to waste his power. Town points | ||
plotspot
800 Posts
I could also go on the SL tunnel, then it's like he is the mastermind knowing Bats is cops and persuaded me to put my block on him, so I am guaranteed to miss my RB, and cannot even prove my block anymore. The same thing goes for the Barakos tunnel, I pointed it out last night. But that's so crazy. If we believe Tictock is Mason. Then we have bunnies, boxerfred and disformation left as mafia. That's all. | ||
sicklucker
Canada16987 Posts
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sicklucker
Canada16987 Posts
On May 31 2015 07:53 plotspot wrote: I don't know anymore, what makes sense? I feel like I jump from one tunnel to another. I could also go on the SL tunnel, then it's like he is the mastermind knowing Bats is cops and persuaded me to put my block on him, so I am guaranteed to miss my RB, and cannot even prove my block anymore. The same thing goes for the Barakos tunnel, I pointed it out last night. But that's so crazy. If we believe Tictock is Mason. Then we have bunnies, boxerfred and disformation left as mafia. That's all. if my play was to make you waste your block so you can become confirmed. Why am I calling you confirmed town here | ||
plotspot
800 Posts
On May 31 2015 07:48 27ninjabunnies wrote: Okay, now that bats has flipped as cop, what is your read on me? You know im not mafia with bats who has a greencheck on me. Do you think that interaction was based on an actuall read on me as town, or do you still view me as possible mafia? I need to know your thoughts on this. I honestly don't know anymore Bunnies. Either you or Barakos are mafia. Since I have no plan on balance issues, I could even see both you and Barakos being GF, to balance out Tictock as a Mason, especially in with a Cop setup? But how likely is that? It's more likely you or Barakos are lying, not both. | ||
Barakos
Germany358 Posts
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sicklucker
Canada16987 Posts
So if you guys dont derp and lynch me we have two lynches left. Theres 2 mafia in disin , bunnies ,bf | ||
sicklucker
Canada16987 Posts
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plotspot
800 Posts
On May 31 2015 07:56 sicklucker wrote: if my play was to make you waste your block so you can become confirmed. Why am I calling you confirmed town here I don't really believe it, it's just that at this point I'm considering technical possibities over who I can believe or not, obviously there are up to 2 mafia here trying to spin their logic. You guys are capable of that. Otherwise the game wouldn't have last up to here. This game gets complicated by the minute. | ||
sicklucker
Canada16987 Posts
Barakos tcitoc plots Me kill rest profit? whos down | ||
boxerfred
Germany8360 Posts
On May 31 2015 07:56 sicklucker wrote: if my play was to make you waste your block so you can become confirmed. Why am I calling you confirmed town here You could be GF with dis or plots. That would be RB+RB+GF setup. Also, that would explain why you would kill AND block the cop, making your play seem the most townie play to ever make without forcing RB to do what town wants (which is what bats argued about trusting the role claim). Would be a huge play. Since you're no newbie, I can imagine that. Any thoughts on this? | ||
Tictock
United States6051 Posts
I have no way to prove this, so it's really just for my own amusement, but I prepared these posts with the intent on putting them up more or less after D4 starts. Some predictions: + Show Spoiler + -plots and Bara have been pointing fingers at me for having given up since my "plot" (get it) didn't work -prob some accusations that I'm not even a Mason and that Bre was solo -plots RB was on Bats or myself, really it could be anyone though. I'm pretty sure plots RBs the kill target here, but really all plots has to do here is say that the person he RB'd is scum when they say they weren't -Idea is to have the whole D4 revolve around this argument. Remember, it doesn't matter if plots gets lynched as long as it happens in such a way to secure towncred for Bara Obv scum killed Bats. If they killed anyone else it was to protect plots RB claim. Can't see them leaving bats though, I'm sure he was trying to check plots N3 and they can't have that. Honestly I can't imagine town staying fooled by this after I pointed everything out before EoD, but I'd rather not drag things out anymore. So here I am unveiling my case. This will be a multi-post case, so be warned. I may leave a summary post depending on how long this gets or how motivated I stay. Main Points -Plots is scum. This is a short version of my scumread on him, but I'll expand on it.+ Show Spoiler + He's been Tryharding this whole game but never brings anything of worth to the game. D1 it's all the graphics. D2 defending SL from Me and getting all buddy buddy. He also blows up over nothing (claims I misunderstood a post) attacking my reading ability & fabricating all sorts of ways I'm not reading him right. He does all that instead of restating his thoughts like I ask him to. D3 total tunnel on me, is 100% convinced he can make me look like shit kus he doesn't think I'm mason (for some reason he's really sure he picked up Mason on BF). When that doesn't work he falls back on Sul but keeps pushing me. -Plots fabricates a 2nd RB role. He uses my own mistake of bringing up setup speculation to his teams advantage. -Setup is really RB, Goon, GF vs Masons(2) & Cop. This is a balanced setup and perfectly normal in a newbie game. -This RB invention isn't a solid idea until D2, which is why plots claims it then to "soft claim" his role. -Bara has to be N2 RB so that they can push this idea, AND! it gives them both instant towncred enough to force town to mislynch D3. -Scum plan going forward is to have Plots keep sticking his neck out and causing as much confusion as possible. Plots is expendable as long as he creates a good smokescreen for Bara. While Bara is safe to hold back and blend. At this point Bara can just keep sheeping town like he did D3, his cred is that solid as long as there isn't anyone crazy enough to thing a blue claim could be false and push it... | ||
Tictock
United States6051 Posts
Let me walk you through plots play, as I see it. Indulge my thinking for just a little bit please, try it on for size. If you don't like it feel free to say so but it had better be more than just attacks on my character or ability. You have to target my reasoning here. Going mild on the quotes here, or at least I started out trying to go mild >.< Do your own Fing reading if you want to verify every little point I make. Also this got Big really fast. Spoilered to keep thread readable. + Show Spoiler + Plots if you recall, starts this game seeming to have forgotten he was playing. He then returns to the game so ready to go that he does some crazy spreadsheeting of everyone's posts. These look impressive, like they took a lot of time. In fact they took so much time plots is never able to do full reads on everyone. Finally D2 he finishes his analysis of D1 and posts all the results, along with helpful instructions on how to use the charts. That's a lot of work right? Like it really is impressive... but how likely is it to really give meaningful information? Plots used his analysis in detail in his reads D1, which only had the first 6? hours of the game involved (he posted these about MidDay btw). But look at his reads AFTER he finished his analysis, he posted them here just a little after he give us his finished charts. Huh, he sure doesn't use much of anything from the charts does he? Almost like he doesn't believe they are useful either. All that work, he doesn't even try to make a full set of reads on everybody from them? Plots then goes pretty carefree, like he's done his job. He has. Nobody, well almost nobody, would dare scum read someone with all that work under his belt. So he starts chatting with SL, being all jokey and chummy. A decent pocket attempt if i ever have seen one (I think it's actually my first ^.^), SL has been under constant pressure and def needs a friend at this point in the game. That is also likely why plots has been weakly townreading SL the whole game. This point always stood out to me as odd. Sl is a very hard player to read, especially early on. If plots is as tryhard noob as he looks from the charts, how is he SO sure SL is town? Here is where things start to get interesting. I blunder in, super scumming plots over this interaction with SL. Clearly my attention is focused on SL at this point, but the fact that I call out his pocket attempt is bad for plots. So he decides to try and undermine my townyness. Do note at this point plots had only posted 2 reads on me, one null and one as clear town. Plots starts to get super mad at my points against him. I first call him out for his read on Rels. Remember that? The first thing plots did D2 was give a full paragraph scum read on the guy who just flipped green. His reasoning, well I was working on this, might as well finish it and post it, shows people I'm trying. Why would town post a read like this after a flip? It adds nothing to be discussed, it wastes space, it gives slim towncred, and it's downright weird. Now I definitely read all plots posts here a few times already. While there are a few places where plots is right and I did misread his posts. + Show Spoiler + Honest question, who finds plots posts easy to read? Other stuff is going on in his filter right now as well. He gives a read on SL and 27nb. The reas on SL is not bad actually, plots gives lots of reasoning and takes into consideration other opinions, odd though that he now thinks SL is shifty when plots has been claiming he's pretty town up till now. His read ends with a bunch of questions, which plots later claims were trying to get people to think SL might be a role. His read on 27nb is total crap on the other hand. It is just sheeping everyone else's opinion. Yet plots is willing to vote 27nb, and then later swap to BM for no reason other than BM voting 27nb. Still, after the initial case I post, I do start to make efforts to talk to plots. I ask him to give details to backup his claims/defense, admit I might have been jumping the gun, and even admit that maybe I am just misunderstanding him. In this last point I especially admit, I mean it's really easy to have a misunderstanding. So there was a break in our exchanges and that let him get out those reads. Late in the day, I post about more things I don't like about plots. Again plots gets super defensive, this time really attacking my ability to read. The post that really stood out to me in this exchange was this one. That post is a bunch of garbled nonsense. The point of it is to suggest several different ways that I MUST have been misreading plots and is largely putting words into my mouth. Why does plots go through all this effort? Why not just tell me what he really meant not what I'm misreading from his post. I think hes trying to slander me, make me appear to be as unreliable as he can. This covers up to N2 and is less than Half! plots filter. N2 starts somewhere just after pg 4 in plots filter. Plots now decides to put out his RB claim, well he claims that HE was RB's N1. This is later said to be a "soft claim" for his RB role. In fact right after plots says he got RB'd he start talking about it like it HAD to have come from town. At first this looks strange, though it does fit with him later claiming RB. After this though, plots really starts to focus on me. He blows up once again about our misunderstanding (I did push him in not the most diplomatic way) but even though I'm CLEARLY asking him to clear things up, he posts this which is largely just what he already posted. Page 5 of plots filter starts with him responding to me answering his questions to me. He basically just calls me dumb and says I have no way to know that SL isn't a role. I had reached this conclusion on my own, however Bre helped me solidify it. Feel free to ask me why I thought this later, this post is big enough. Shortly after that Plots starts his spam posting for the day. Some of the tunnel on me starts, but breaks off to throw out some stuff about roles and keeps doing this Nolynch crap for literally no reason. The whole way Plots claims his role is a little weird. He doesn't come out with it, he slowly teases it, as though he's giving town some great secret. He also uses this to try and be "secretive" about his motives for RBing who he did. He does eventually offer this, On May 28 2015 21:36 plotspot wrote: I RBed Rels, but she died that night. Remember that I scumread her. I even said I would have shot her if I was vig. So I claimed that I was RBed by a roleblocker N2 to tell town that we have a RB, but there wasn't any discussion worthwhile about it, you also didn't see me press the issue there. What an odd choice to RB N1. Sure, ok Plots did scumread Rels and mentioned the Vig thing here, On May 25 2015 07:10 plotspot wrote: How do you know Rels wasn't Vig shot? I was about to make a case on scumreading him hard for the following points I prepared: Rels: referring too much to others opinion, reading thread very carefully, the way RELS sets up lynch is also very comfortable (like lynch inactives), giving orders to others, thanks my post but posts no further thoughts, in comparison to Disinformation who displays overall anxiety in his reads and thoughts, Rels looks like he can handle any sudden change, there is nothing clouding his mind, others apparently have to do more than Rels, you bet if I was Vig I would have shot her. Another odd post. First how in the hell does Plots think a Vig shot Rels, because plots would if he were vig? He is also so sure Rels is scum here, but are his reasons good? And... wait this is right at start of D2, before plots has even finished his charts... but I see no evidence of him using his charts in this read once again... Would a Town RB, who spends all D1 making charts on activity, use this reasoning to block Rels? Well THIS plots doesnt, rather than use the tool he's spent so much time making he throws out these NAI points about Rels to scum her and say she was a good target here. Still not convinced plots RB claim doesn't hold up? What about his N2 target, Barakos? Well as Dis points out in this post On May 28 2015 22:58 disformation wrote: That is basically the only mention of barakos in your filter... Why the fuck would you roleblock a null/town read over a scum read? Plots has only been town or nullreading Bara all game. I think plots reasons for his RB's is very much a good thing to be looking at. I spent a fair portion of D3 asking plots why Bara was his 2nd RB. He only ever mentions his RB on bara in these 2 posts one is his super weak answer to my question. On May 28 2015 21:58 plotspot wrote: Of course I RBed Rels and Barakos. Barakos non-chalantly mentions he has been RBed? Lol if he was mafia I believe he should hang out in the thread a bit instead of expressing it like this. On May 28 2015 22:48 plotspot wrote: I couldn't read him that well. While I said he was town earlier, I had my doubts internally and not published. I wonder why batsnacks thought the same? (he technically mentions the Bara RB in other posts as well, but they are just like that first quote. "Bara's RB claim proves I'm RB guys!" Now plots does post this On May 29 2015 00:38 plotspot wrote: Also it's impossible for a mafia to think of such a ploy. He would risk his fucking life making up being RB, when he didn't even know there was one. Guess what would happen to mafia if he makes up such a ploy, saying he was RB N1? I would crush him. It's too dangerous, no mafia will ever do that. I on the other hand could because only I knew I targeted Rels and "luckily" she died for that ploy to work. Imagine if I was to RB someone and he survives that Night. It would make this ploy impossible, it would have led to a fucking mess which mafia will have ultimately used to force me out. Which is true, and a valid point. Why would scum invent such a play? What does it benefit them? I will attempt to explain the scum logic here in another post, for now this is actually a good point. This does bring me to the one point that would destroy my theory. If there is a 3rd person who gets RB's then I'm absolutely wrong here. Starting here plots starts to push numbers to explain why votes should go certain ways. He also starts to bring back the possibility of me and Sul being the scum team. He is also continuing to post setup speculations, keeping them broad and only suggests more "oddball" setups. Towards EoD plots does more numbers to push votes on Sul, these make no sense though and are really just put out to keep town unsure of what is the best play. There is more in the filter, but it is more recent and this has ballooned to be an epic wall of text. Hopefully I've made my points clear. | ||
Tictock
United States6051 Posts
At this point I want to point out that a NORMAL newbie setup is most likely, regardless of anything that has been said this game it is very unlikely that a bizarre setup would be used in a newbie game. At the time of me writing this Bre is the only confirmed Blue role, Bats will probably have been killed and confirmed Cop so D4 is going to be all about plots vs me. Mason vs Town RB, which role makes more sense? I propose that our game is setup like so: RB, Goon, and GF vs Masons & Cop Plots claim for RB is fake, and I poked holes in his claim in my last post. Ok now lets talk about how what I'm suggesting makes sense from a scum perspective as this may not look like a good play at first. - The Scum play D3 - Imagine you are scum. You lost your RB Day 1 thanks to a somewhat lucky train by town. Since then town has been sidetracked by suspecting inactive people, or focused on SL. D2 went ok since Town is still largely off your trail, but there is one guy who is bringing suspicion to one of your team. You know you need 3 more mislynches to secure a victory. It seems like it's the right time for a bold play. There has been some setup speculation in thread, since this game uses a semi-open setup scum!You knows just a little more than town, you know your own setup. What if there was a way to confuse town further about setup stuff, WHILE still getting info about the roles that are out there? Thus the fake RB role is born. This fake role serves to confuse town, forces other blues to claim (the info to town becomes too important now), AND manages to give towncred to the scum team since they can hide behind these claims. "But Tunneltoc? Doesn't this play fall apart the next night?" I know your asking that now, but hear me out. With this play Scum is almost guaranteed one of their mislynches (I did my best to stop it, but town wanted to believe all the blue claims too much), and gives them a solid shot at winning the game. D4 will start off with nobody claiming they got RB'd N3. What would you do as scum in this position? I know what i would do, pick a target D4 and say, "hey I roleblocked you!" when they deny it you go "ok well then your scum! clearly you want to confuse town and make them not believe my role!" Will plots do this to me? It seems like he HAS to. Plots and Bara as a team could not kill me N3 as it would give too much credence to my theories, besides that Bats could potentially check plots N3 so he needs to die. This is risky. It means that plots is very likely to get lynched at some point. But as Scum, do you care? Isn't it worth plots sticking his head out like that if it means 1 surefire mislynch and a potential 2nd one the next day if you can throw enough shit on a player to get them scummed? At the very least plots would go out in a fury of confusion and misinformation, all while Bara can freely gauge town safe behind a greencheck (I haven't pointed this out yet, Bara didn't claim he was RB'd until well after Bats said he had been greenchecked) and bus plots when needed. In other words the whole play is to spread misinformation for as long as possible while distracting Town from Bara so he can potentially ride out the game while town keeps lynching inactives. Last thought here, So then given all this, why would plots suggest Bara as GF? The whole play is built around the idea of protecting Bara. This might actually be the only flaw I see in my thinking. It could just be a slip, but it does seem like something plots would be very careful about in this position. Still he was responding to my pressure to explain why he would RB Bara N2. It is possible he let slip a bit of his own thinking when trying to deflect my pressure and questions. When plots mentions Bara as GF it's used to counter my thinking at the time, that plots was mafia RB. It's a hole, but it's not much compared to how well my theory holds up everywhere else. | ||
Tictock
United States6051 Posts
This one addresses Plots and Bara's votes all 3 days and I do a little filter diving on Bara. Bara's filter is much shorter than plots so you should read it yourself, I'm just going to point out a few things I noticed in it. D1 Votes: Both Plots and Bara avoid voting with the majority. They keep their votes on Dis. Bara opens the game with his vote on Dis and lets it ride all day. His reasons are easy to find, it's like the first thing in his filter, they are all based off Bat's Iching. Bara never mentions scott, but he does suggest multiple times that he dislikes lynching inactives as it feels "coinflippy" Plots doesn't do much D1, but he does give reads on Dis (his vote) and scott. 3. disformation (DI): My scumread so far. He's fairly active in the first 3 hours, posting really in between the conversation of others with fine, careful, uncommiting. While others seem fairly focused on their conversation, he's kinda lurking and picking cherries. You have to go back, read and see what I mean. I'd vote for him. 9. scott31337 (SC): appears rather late to just talke about BM and SL, not really trying to drive some conversation. I need to see more. Nothing too convincing from these guys as to why they voted Dis over scott. D2 Votes: Reminder that we Lynched VT Bill Murray D2, votes prob mean less than D1 Bara does repeat that he dislikes voting inactives again, also similar to D1 he places his vote on SL and lets it ride all day. Plots gives us a read on 27nb here, but it's pretty useless and is all sheep just disguised as his own read. He then swaps his vote to BM On May 27 2015 05:22 plotspot wrote: Lol sorry, bunnies is right. BM is like totally ninjavoting her and has disappeared into the dust since then. That looks so bad. Unvote ##VOTE: Bill Murray Again clearly sheeping. D3 Votes: Bara, literally just sheeps Bats. No more mention of inactives being coinflippy, no real thought. Posts some numbers at one point to try and show there is much better chance to hit Mafia by voting 27nb or Sul over plots. Plots does some nonsense voting No Lynch at first, but later joins the vote on Sul. Unlike Bara he does show his reasoning, it's pathetic On May 28 2015 22:17 plotspot wrote: I will explain how this post will reveal Sulfurus as Mafia, and basically supports my case without the Tictock interaction. Sulfurus posted that question after clueless Batsnacks and disformation are hysterical about there being another Mafia RB. The right question would have been "How do you know Bunnies and Barakos are not the GF"? In her mind it was 100% technically perfect that Barakos cannot be mafia. She assumes that Batsnacks believed this lie. The truth his however it is totally possible for Barakos to be Godfather with the Town RB setup. He just automatically reads him town because he is mafia. Barakos & Plotspot: Scum Team? Clearly these 2 have some pretty poor reasoning in all of their votes. I found it particularly interesting how Bara drops his own thoughts on SL and just sheeps Bats. When I ask him near EoD why he still thinks SL and Dis could be scum he give me this On May 29 2015 20:43 Barakos wrote: Without any role-stuff I would still be onto sl/disfo, but that's not going to happen today... it's complete bs, to argue about what would happen without roles, when there are roles... you can argue, if they are valid claims or not, but pretending they don't exist and not using this information to your advantage is bad townplay... you need to use everything there is... i am willing to speculate with you about fake-claims and stuff, because that is the reality the game takes place in, but to speculate, what would be without all the claims is just shutting your eyes and ignoring the major things that happend in the past 30 hours. So I ask, well what do you find scummy about those 2? Why are they cleared by role stuff, they were never checked? On May 29 2015 20:47 Barakos wrote: I am not clearing them, but our claimed cop is onto sulfurus so why not do the same? I could of course waste a vote on sl again like last time but I got someone I can sheep atm. And I am sheeping our claimed cop and not the confirmed mason, because the confirmed mason wasn't making sense with his vote. :p By the way, this post from Bara is what got me onto the idea that he was teamed with plots On May 29 2015 20:14 Barakos wrote: Why are you working so hard on not lynching sulfurus? Lynching plots would mean, lynching an confirmed rb on the off chance, there are 2 scum-rbs vs a single town-cop... sounds not convincing. Lynching bunnies means lynching into a green-check on the 1/6-chance that there is a godfather between all the claimed vt and bunnies is the gf Lynching sulfurus is a 2/4 scum, if you believe both greenchecks, 1/4 if you believe one of bunnies/me is the gf. Notice how he gives literally no chance for plots to be scum, but some fraction chance of everyone else? Did anyone notice that D3 there were only 2 players to claim I was defending Sul? Bara thinks so in that last post, and plots did here On May 29 2015 01:17 plotspot wrote: EBWOP And I started scumreading Tictock even more when he defended Sulfurus heavily. Now my theory certainly sounds strange the longer we don't hear from boxerfred. Was my post on Sul here, really that much of a defense? Wasn't I really just asking for good reasons behind our lynch target, and saying I don't see those reasons in Sul? Plots and Bara were the only 2 people EoD3 to heavily post numbers to support voting Sul or bunnies. This point might be weaker, but did anyone notice how the 2 of them were lurking a lot around EoD? When I start posting my theories about them, they BOTH suddenly appeared in thread giving me shit for it. It seemed clear to me that they were reacting in panic since I had suddenly broken their ploy. Could just be coincidence, but these 2 were fairly active EoD, much morose than any other EoD. Actually filter Diving on Bara wasn't as revealing as I would have thought. I pulled up a few points that I already linked and quoted above. Bara makes a fair bit of towny posts throughout the days, his D1 vote and reasoning were crap but besides that his filter looks ok. As we got into EoD D3 and I throw out the notion that plots and Bara are the the scum team, Bara's posts start to look worse. It really wasn't until the post I quoted above that I started to suspect Bara. This is why I'm still pushing plots as my vote, and why I did so D3 as well. Plots is more clearly scum than Bara. However if plots does flip Goon like I think he will then Bara becomes confirmed GF. Plots flips anything else, and my case on Bara is broken. | ||
sicklucker
Canada16987 Posts
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