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Thanks for answering.
At the start of the game, I remember ritoky seeming really towny. But when I go back over the start of the game, ritoky looks suspicious. Specifically, the strange defensiveness and changes in his progression with Palmar, some posts that might perhaps be pocketing, and his statements towards Alakaslam "if he starts playing better, he is town, but otherwise he is sure scum".
Was my initial read on ritoky weak? Or is it just that flips made his play worse? Or am I making errors in my current judgement of his early play?
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Rsoultin is almost certainly town here. Just saying this again.
Rsoultin started pushing Alakaslam very early on. The only reason that this would happen is if the mafia team agreed to bus Alakaslam. But then, rsoultin wouldn't have vote switched off of Alakaslam. Rsoultn's play simply makes no sense at all from a mafia perspective.
Ritoky seems kind of strange. Many parts of his play seem to make him look like mafia. For example, the way he eventually voted on Alakaslam so late in the day, and the way he set it up ("If Alakaslam looks like town, he's town, but otherwise he's definitely scum"). That said, his play has seemed like focused scumhunting, and with the thread being such a mess, there is not much incentive for him to do so. I almost want to townread him for effort alone.
Robik and Onegu both look suspicious, but they can't be scum together based on they Day 1 voting.
I'm sorry, I wish I could provide more, but I'm busy with unexpected real life issues.
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On March 08 2015 14:10 rsoultin wrote:
lol disregard...I've got a superficial way to read ritoky, but pairing that with how I generally feel about him this game, the townread holds up. i'm not great at meta though lol -_- just noticed he tends to only focus on a few players as scum (at least in the games I read) while focusing on a lot more as town.
not that my opinion matters since i'm only confirmed town to myself xP You're confirmed town.
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On March 08 2015 14:17 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
can i reference a game that is still going on? Robik was in another game and he flipped, can I talk about that as a meta read? Sorry, not until that game ends.
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On March 09 2015 09:54 Onegu wrote:
@trfel since you are blue, can you come in ive your UPDATED reads and thoughts so we can have more input other than scum snickers yelling about my claim, and rsoultin blaming him for being unproductive.
Oats your thoughts would be useful to get a read on you and to figure out this game. Yeah, it's time I apologized.
I'm sorry, some personal problems have come up recently and I haven't been able to spend anywhere near the amount of time on this game that it deserves. I'll be able to read the thread, but my rereading will be limited, and I won't be anywhere near as up to date as I would like.
I feel that Onegu and rsoultin are both very likely to be town.
Onegu because of his blue claim. We haven't had a counterclaim yet, and I feel it is extremely likely that town has two blue roles. Mafia claiming where Onegu did feels like suicide. In addition, I liked Onegu saying that he made not obvious saves. (no hard feelings about not saving me, to be honest I was really hoping to die) Therefore, I feel that Onegu should be treated as confirmed town.
Rsoultin for reasons previously stated. If rsoultin is mafia, she started pushing Alakaslam extremely early in Day 1, when the only pressure on Alakaslam was Onegu's joke vote. Rsoultin had no reason to do this at all, unless the mafia team made an early decision to bus Alakaslam. Given that the majority of Alakaslam's wagon is towny, this seems extremely unlikely, since if the mafia team made an early decision to bus, ritoky would have been much more committed to it earlier on. And if the mafia team did decide to bus Alakaslam, then rsoultin would not have moved her vote at the last second. So, though rsoultin's play doesn't look particularly good, it looks even worse from a mafia perspective, therefore I am extremely confident in reading rsoultin as town.
Snickers has consistently looked suspicious to me. On Day 1, Snickers' play was consistently anti-town. A few of these reasons include constant insults, trolling, and his opening attempt to lynch the banned KelsierSC. This play can only be explained by him trolling, as Robik previously described. However, in this play, Snickers promised key reads in later points in the game, promises which took a very long time to come (if ever). And Snickers posted some things that seemed to make it look like he was seriously playing the game. Based on the massive amount of contradictions and misreading that Snickers displayed, that makes his play seem suspicious.
For Day 2, Snickers was much more serious. I note that this coincided with the ending of Office Mafia, which makes sense; Snickers gets more time, and then starts playing more seriously. Then for Day 3, Snickers seems to be very obstructive and constantly getting in the way.
One thing I wonder about is that Snickers' play seems to vary based on the level of danger the scum team is in. Snickers started out completely trolling, which makes sense for a scum player in a town atmosphere like this game's Day 1. Then when a mafia player was shot, Snickers started to play more seriously. And now that town loses after two more mislynches, I can see Snickers being more trolling and obstructive again. I could see Snickers going either way.
Ritoky is proving really hard for me to read, for reasons previously stated. His actions all seem so bad, but the level of effort he has used seems good. And Alakaslam's early vote in him seems to be a small point in his favor. I am still inclined to think that ritoky is town, but I wouldn't be that surprised if he was town here.
I am suspicious of Robik for the early vote on prplhz, describing himself as having done more than he actually has, and seeming to not really care about the game except when he is up for lynch.
At the moment, I'm feeling most likely to lynch Robik, Snickers, or MysteryMeat1.
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Snickers says Onegu is 98% town, then is skeptical of his claim, which is why he is town?
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If you want to get me to switch, you're going to have to sell it really quickly. I need to leave in a few minutes.
Sorry.
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Oh, and plus I still want to lynch Snickers. My biggest reason for not wanting to lynch him is that I'm always wrong, and I think he's scum.
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HAHAHAHAHAAHA the deadline didn't change for Daylight Savings Time XD
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It's my fault, haha. I should have realized.
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Has Half the Sky been drinking or something?
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For the record, the only reason I switched my vote was to block any potential last second vote switches. Because that would suggest that Snickers was scum. And in addition, if Snickers was going to get lynched anyway, I wanted my vote on him. Even though it didn't change anything whatsoever.
I did prefer a MysteryMeat1 lynch to a Snickers lynch.
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Ritoky's final push against MysteryMeat1 with Snickers up for lynch today basically removed all doubt in my mind about his alignment. Ritoky seems to have been putting the most effort into this game of everyone, so if he is scum, he more than deserves his win. Even though several of his actions have looked suspicious, the amount of effort he has used is completely disproportional to how I would expect scum to play in this environment, and I can't see my lynching him due to paranoia alone.
That said.... ritoky, why do you want legacies from us? You seem very convinced in who the final mafia is.
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Fair enough.
I simply haven't spent enough time on this game, so take my reads with a grain of salt, but I'll do what I can.
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MysteryMeat1 and Oatsmaster
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Endgame post please? 
I'll post my reasons tomorrow, but I think it's fairly solid. I'd rather go with this than some tinfoil hat theory about ritoky outplaying everyone else in the game as scum, or Onegu getting extremely lucky and gambling that town only has one power role, or rsoultin bussing Alakaslam from so early on.
There are several reasons for this. One is process of elimination, but that is somewhat weak. So looking at voting analysis, Oatsmaster and MysteryMeat1 generally voted late and non-committed, except for their combined push on Robik.
MysteryMeat1's filter showed some strange reads of Oatsmaster. One thing of note is his early pressure vote, four hours from end of day, which was quickly retracted. By that time, Superbia had only marginally more posts than Oatsmaster, so it is somewhat suspicious that Oatsmaster was singled out while Superbia was ignored entirely. Then, MysteryMeat1 provided a reads post not including Oatsmaster, but added a read on Oatsmaster in an updated list post seven minutes later. Note how Oatsmaster ended up in the scum category, but MysteryMeat1's deliberate explanation of this read seemed to waffle and not end up in a solid scumread. It feels overjustified.
Oatsmaster has also been deliberate with his reads towards MysteryMeat1.
In addition, both of them have been constantly scumreading each other. But, they have never seriously pushed each other. In a broken game like this, I would expect mafia to just distance and watch town kill themselves, and that seems shown here. But they never, ever, pushed each other seriously.
Regardless of the night kill, Onegu is almost certainly town here.
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MysteryMeat1 and Oatsmaster
MysteryMeat1
MysteryMeat1's reads have been inconsistent
On March 03 2015 12:04 MysteryMeat1 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2015 11:44 prplhz wrote:18 On March 03 2015 11:41 rsoultin wrote:
I actually like prp's latest posting, tbh. Slam is definitely the better lynch. MysteryMeat1 Tell me something about him. It could be too early in the day but I think that if he was mafia he would have taken a more definite side between us. However instead of pushing a lynch onto one of us he's switching it to someone he thinks is mafia. Town read! MysteryMeat1 provides a townread of rsoultin. However, about 30 minutes before, he was suspicious of rsoultin.On March 03 2015 11:36 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
My phone is about to die but with a quick glance tHrough Rsoul filter I'm not a huge fan
On March 03 2015 09:58 MysteryMeat1 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2015 08:22 Damdred wrote:
if you can explain why I would like to hear it.
MM is a total classic low hanging fruit, even if you roll mafia it doesn't change the fact he still fits into that. He looks like scum even as confirmed town to a ton of people. Theres nothing that can be done with that. T.T I like robik, snickers, and palmar for now. WE should lynch the purple guy. Its annoying how he counts his posts. A townread of Robik.On March 04 2015 04:23 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
Lol Robik has to be town. He begs me to play this game then calls me scum d1 Another townread of Robik. Then he sheeps Robik as his reason for voting for prphlz.On March 06 2015 12:13 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
Mafia:
Robik, he usually reads me fairly well even with my shit play, I know i haven't been as active and he hasn't been really pushing on me, but he's a mafia sided lean. Later, this read changes to town.On March 08 2015 14:20 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
well then i think robik is town for what its worth But Robik was constantly scumreading MysteryMeat1, which was the reason that he was scumread by MysteryMeat1. These read changes were later justified here.On March 08 2015 15:40 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
As you know I have taken quite the haitus from playing forum mafia. It's a lot of fun but i'm really terrible and it takes waaay too much time to play during school. I work 15 hours a week, go to school full time (double majoring), do research for a professor, and volunteer. However robik messages me on skype and goes I wanna play mafia with you so i'm like aight. For Robik to come out d1 and says he has a scum read on me means that he actually thinks im scum and not a mafia pushing a ml. Thats why I initially townread him for it.
However as you know robiks play is usually a lot more involved which set off a few red flags for me. However I realized robik is a bastard and would totes mcgoats do that. Now I'm claiming ogi and saying robik is town.
If i had to judge on a scale of 1-10 how town robik is in each of those posts it would go.
8, 4, 5, 3, 8. It was a moment of weakness but i'm really basing my read off of OGI and the fact that i've played DM with robik a bit. It's basically a selfish read but I think he's town. The initial townread of Robik makes sense, however the reason for scumreading Robik changed. MysteryMeat1 scumread Robik for scumreading himself when Robik should have known better. And if Robik and MysteryMeat1 know each other well, the described time it took MysteryMeat1 to realize that Robik's play actually was his town play wouldn't exist. This post actually makes no sense at all explaining this.
On March 07 2015 03:42 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
I'm fine with lynching super over robik On March 08 2015 14:53 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
I really didn't like the superbia lynch, for his logic when it came to oats, robik, and I. I also agreed with the gut read on snickers. Just because Superbia posted one list post in between. His logic on three players made a comfortable lynch change into really not liking that lynch? I also note that Superbia's three reads mentioned were Oatsmaster, MysteryMeat1, and Robik. MysteryMeat1 is effectively saying that he liked the logic for reading Oatsmaster as town and Robik as mafia, while he himself continued to read Oatsmaster as mafia and soon switched to reading Robik as town (after which he still said he liked Superbia's logic for his read on Robik).
Throughout the game, MysteryMeat1 has shown a weird level of justification of his plays. Some of his reads and actions were left completely unjustified, or made as jokes. However, others were heavily explained after the fact, when they were commented on. And still some actions were explained in detail as they were made. These differences seem very interesting, and it makes MysteryMeat1 feel very self-conscious.
One more interesting point is MysteryMeat1's day 1 voting. He initially voted for Oatsmaster as a pressure vote, and then with about three hours left, he asked Robik if he should vote for prplhz or stay on Oatsmaster. Note that MysteryMeat1 has never once mentioned Alakaslam or his wagon, and doesn't leave that as an option. And this places most of the blame on Robik, instead of himself.
Oatsmaster
On March 04 2015 13:10 Oatsmaster wrote:
Ive been completely neglecting this game, but anyone who knows how to read can see that Prp was town.
What the fuck guys.
Really? This didn't seem obvious to a lot of people. Myself included. I don't think anyone was solidly townreading prplhz.
I also notice that his activity significantly drops off after he starts playing enough to be less suspected for activity. Oatsmaster has by far the shortest filter in the game, and his only main contribution was the first push in Robik.
After Superbia was lynched, Oatsmaster said that the lynch felt a lot like a town vs town lynch. But he didn't do anything to stop it, and was yelling for Robik's head the entire time.
Then on Day 3, Oatsmaster's vote on Snickers comes first, and then his filter turns to be scumreading Snickers quite strongly. Oatsmaster placed this vote when three votes were on Snickers already, and he had barely mentioned Snickers before this (and not in a way that provided any indication as to his read on Snickers). Furthermore, Oatsmaster had been comfortable with reading MysteryMeat1 as scum before this, but this read was dropped entirely once he jumped to the Snickers wagon.
Why MysteryMeat1 and Oatsmaster are scum together
On March 04 2015 03:38 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
##Vote: Oatsmaster
Hi oats, gimme some love This is MysteryMeat1's first mention of Oatsmaster, about four and a half hours before the lynch deadline. As a pressure vote, this feels mostly worthless, being so late to the deadline. At this point, Oatsmaster had voted for Palmar and asked a question. Meanwhile, Superbia had also been away for a significant period of time, and he had claimed town, voted Palmar, and asked three questions. So there isn't much difference between the two. But MysteryMeat1 pressure votes Oatsmaster without ever mentioning Superbia.
On March 06 2015 12:13 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
So funny story robik, I actually came into 1000$ in scam money, had to call the police and talk to them. It was pretty exhausting.
I voted on prplhz cause I didnt have a good read on slam, I also thought robik was softing a power role or something and probably didn't even know if snickers was town or mafia and tried to frame him for the lolz. Like I said earlier I thought it was weird that rsoul had told prp that he was lacking a reaction and then blew up out of no where really. I was going to place my vote on prp regardless but decided to place it on oats to see if he would say something, however I believe when i placed the vote there was only like 4 hours left and I realized that was too late to pressure someone so i switched it to prp. At the time i was reading snickers and robik as town.
As for town reads:
Snickers
trfel
ritoky
rsoul
Mafia:
Robik, he usually reads me fairly well even with my shit play, I know i haven't been as active and he hasn't been really pushing on me, but he's a mafia sided lean.
Onegu - Seems very lynch happy
This next section is pretty wifom: If i was mafia: I would probably push a lynch on me or robik. If you wanted to deal with robik then you could probably push on him for his activity and then the 'fake' yelling that he got a warning for. Even easier than that would be me, I've never been mafia and I suck at all town roles.
im going back to reading
Here is MysteryMeat1's first list post. Note that MysteryMeat1 is somewhat suspected at this point for the vote switch to prplhz. MysteryMeat1 says that he placed his pressure vote on Oatsmaster with four and a half hours left in the day, but then realized that it was too late to do this as a pressure vote, so he switched to prphlz... a whole half hour before the deadline. This doesn't make sense. Also, MysteryMeat1 provides explanation for his reads here, explanation that hasn't been seen in his play to this point. This coincides with increased suspicion on himself.On March 06 2015 12:20 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
also the other people I forgot to mention, I'm fine with damdred and just doing a quick look through super's filter it seemed like there was justification for his vote on prp and then tried to not get slam shot. Oats is oats and could be mafia, I think the last game we played together was cell which was basically me and HF being bitches to each other for like 300 posts and he turned out to be mafia. Hwever in that game iirc he didn't really play that much and he hasn' been playing a lot this game so he's a mafia lean
I'd probably put robik in the nuetral with a very slight scum lean
so for the recap
Town:
Snickers
tfel
ritoky
rsoul
Neutral Town:
Damdred
Neutral Mafia
Robik
Mafia
oats
super Seven minutes later, MysteryMeat1 provides an updated list post. I find it interesting how he added Oatsmaster in the "Mafia" category, while having just completely dismissed his vote on Oatsmaster as a pressure vote. Here, he explains his scumread of Oatsmaster, saying he "could be mafia" and that the reason for scumreading Oatsmaster is that he didn't play very much last game, when he was mafia, and didn't play very much in this game. This explanation seems wishy-washy, and doesn't result in a hard scumread like MysteryMeat1 provided. MysteryMeat1 basically spent three lines explaining "Oatsmaster is mafia because he has barely been posting".
On March 05 2015 17:47 Oatsmaster wrote:
yeah feeling pretty good about robik and MM. This is a scumread of MysteryMeat1, based on what Oatsmaster does before (saying that prplhz's wagon was scum and Alakaslam's wagon was town) and after (pushing Robik).
From here, the Day 2 voting gets more active, and MysteryMeat1 never mentions Oatsmaster again. He only mentions Superbia and Robik, and seems to be willing to vote for either. And Oatsmaster was one of MysteryMeat's strongest scumreads before this.
On March 08 2015 14:53 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
robik, oats, and I all thought that one of the other two were scum. I'm fairly certain robik is town so based on that I would put oats pretty high up on my scum list. BS reason but idc.
I'm suprised no one has really been hard pushing me after damdred died. From my perspective that nk was set up to get me mislynched.
I really didn't like the superbia lynch, for his logic when it came to oats, robik, and I. I also agreed with the gut read on snickers.
Fun Fact* The first game (maybe second game) I played with snickers I got lynched the first thing i did was mesage chairman ray on skype and was like you and snickers are mafia.
I think that there is at least one scum on the slam wagon day1, and oats didn't vote and at the moment my scum team would be oats, ritoky/snickers
So, MysteryMeat1 really didn't want to lynch Superbia because of three reads he provided, including a townread of Oatsmaster. But, MysteryMeat1 is putting Oatsmaster pretty high on his scum list, and including him in his scum team in the very same post.
On March 08 2015 16:16 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
I would vote on these three today oats and then snickers/ritoky, I liked rsouls and onegus reasoning so I would be fine with a snickers lynch. MysteryMeat1 has been scumreading Oatsmaster constantly. But has never actually pushed him. And now, for the Day 3 lynch, MysteryMeat1 still doesn't push Oatsmaster, instead deciding to lynch Snickers for sheeping rsoultin and Onegu. Despite having Snickers as town earlier.
On March 09 2015 20:55 Oatsmaster wrote:
robik is a huge dick looooooool.
Too dick to be scum.
Ok so snickers denying the claim is super weird.
He should know that uncounterclaimed blues are blues.
And he definitely isnt that doc or another blue either.
##vote snickers So Oatsmaster was comfortable with scumreading MysteryMeat1. Then Oatsmaster switched his Robik read to town, and then voted for Snickers. No mention of MysteryMeat1 at all.
Conclusion: MysteryMeat1 and Oatsmaster
Both MysteryMeat1 and Oatsmaster have provided several suspicious actions and reads of their own (well, not so many in Oatsmaster's case, since he only has 26 posts). Both have been on the sidelines, not pushing their reads (except for Oatsmaster's push on Robik), and following others (MysteryMeat1 did this constantly, Oatsmaster with his late vote on Snickers). Both have been consistently scumreading each other, but never pushing these reads. Therefore, I think that both MysteryMeat1 and Oatsmaster are mafia.
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Onegu and I are confirmed town for claiming power roles without counterclaims. I think that my claim and my shot speaks for itself.
In Onegu's case, he was scumread by virtually everyone going into Day 3, and so he claimed right away. This makes sense to me from a town perspective, as his chances of getting the lynch off of himself seemed small. In addition, if he had waited later in the day, his claim would have looked more suspicious. By claiming right at the start of the day, he waited until after the night kill, and ensured that town wouldn't waste time focusing on himself, and could focus on finding scum instead. Furthermore, Onegu's claimed medic saves are not the most obvious saves (probably ritoky night 1 and definitely myself night 2, note that I am not saying these are the best saves, just the most obvious ones), and that makes me more inclined to believe his claim. It's a lot easier to defend saving a claimed blue than it is to defend saving a somewhat suspicious player in Robik.
So far, we have two claimed blues (vigilante and medic) and one dead mafia goon. It is reasonable to assume that mafia has at least one power role to compensate. A roleblocker is perfectly reasonable here, and thus if Onegu does not die, I don't think that it casts much doubt on his claim.
That leaves four players: ritoky, rsoultin, MysteryMeat1, and Oatsmaster. None of these players are confirmed town. I've expressed reasons for townreading ritoky and rsoultin previously in my filter, but these reasons aren't concrete proof of their alignment.
I don't think that it is possible for ritoky and rsoultin to be mafia together because of how quickly rsoultin voted for Alakaslam, and how long ritoky took to investigate people and only voted for Alakaslam with less than an hour left in Day 1 (and then rsoultin switched off of Alakaslam). If both were mafia with Alakaslam, this wouldn't have happened.
I don't think that it is possible for ritoky and MysteryMeat1 to be mafia together because of ritoky's push from Snickers to MysteryMeat1 yesterday. This is an extremely risky play for mafia to do, while they could have simply taken the mislynch and put town at double LYLO.
This leaves the following mafia teams:
rsoultin and Oatsmaster
rsoultin and MysteryMeat1
ritoky and Oatsmaster
MysteryMeat1 and Oatsmaster
For reasons I have already stated, I am most inclined to think that the last option is correct.
I should take a closer look at rsoultin and ritoky. But for now, I need a break. I can't guarantee that I will get back to this game before the deadline, especially seeing as I am busy. But hopefully this is a good description of where my thoughts are at right now.
Do note that I haven't kept up with this game as much as I would like, and therefore my reads are not as reliable as they normally would be (and they aren't very good normally, either). I've provided my thoughts, but while I am confirmed town, that doesn't mean that I am right.
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On March 11 2015 09:22 rsoultin wrote:
truffle still lives
we should filter-dive truffle
most of his filter is on this page lololol Oh you....
Don't make me lynch you for spite.
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EPT
