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Here are the NK'd last reads in nice list format:
On March 05 2015 07:06 raynpelikoneet wrote:+ Show Spoiler +LightningStrike
Half the Sky
ObiWanShinobi
batsnacks
Tubesock
Alakaslam
Sepulchre
Fecalfeast
Breshke
Onegu
Damdred
Toadesstern
Oatsmaster
Sandroba
AT.Epiphany *
sicklucker
Mocsta
geript *
kitaman27
Kurumi
Keirathi
IAmRobik
* undecided one of them is scum the other one is town.
pretty sure sicklucker shot rsoultin.
On March 05 2015 02:58 Toadesstern wrote:+ Show Spoiler +rayn, anything you disagree with or want to add? I honestly don't really care all that much about mafia reads right now and am trying to go by PoE seeing as that your mom thing totally did not work out yesterday and we just have a crapton of people that are just nulls for me. Feel like we should focus on those guys atm, so: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/qCM4NLA.png) left out the other green tone for obvious reasons right now.
They both scum Scum Sandroba and Batsnacks. At the ends of their filters they are both on Geript. Rayne is vocally asking why he ever towned Geript in the first place. Toadesstern doesn't scum Geript but he is visibly becoming frustrated with him. His last post says "Geript is doing stupid bullshit because who knows why".
There's a world where Geript is town. I think that Raynepelikoneet, Toadesstern, and Geript were the top 3 towns at least as far as thread presence and visibility. They were clearly leading town. I think mafia killed the 2 most dangerous to mafia players. That means Raynepelikoneet and Toadesstern were the most correct. Geript towned Sandroba. cntrl+F Bats in Geripts filter. He mentions him twelve times. Twice he says he's on the sidelines not doing anything. A couple posts he is asking what are presumably his townreads about Batsnacks. Decide for yourself if he's actually scumming him.
Now for my actual point. Pretend you're mafia. You get a cell with your member who is strongly scummed by the top two towns. What can you do? Sandroba doesn't claim, he fucking dies. How can he possibly live?
Sicklucker spazzes out and gets out of lots of lynches. Onegu has a good reputation so has a very high probability of turning it on and avoiding the lynch. I'm a question mark though. But I'm also really confident that when you guys actually bother to read my filter you'll have the same reaction that Rsoultin did:
On March 04 2015 17:11 rsoultin wrote:
Lol I should have looked at your filter earlier.
Rsoul does not approve of killing Tube tomorrow <3 Do you have an opinion on sepu or damdred, while I've got you in-thead.
Tell me the tone of Rsoultins post isn't "Oh, all I thought you did was some setup talk and nothing else but obviously I was wrong. Now let's talk."?
How the fuck does Sandroba who hasn't done jack shit compete with all that stuff?
Claim cop. What's the real downside? Worst case is mafia 1 for 1's. They certainly can get a 2 for 1, but do you think that in how many real life days that would take that we would still think about Sandroba and not say other easy low hanging fruit like Epiphany?
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On March 05 2015 17:31 Oatsmaster wrote:
sandro like not lynching scum probably means hes scum.
Im sure he knows that even getting nightkilled is worth playing properly.
Tube, why didnt the doc save rayn or toad if they were obviously town?
I doubt we have one.
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On March 05 2015 17:30 Oatsmaster wrote:
I assume we have 2 cop claims, im not going to read through 100 pages, I dont have time for that.
So far Sandroba is an unCC'd Cop.
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Oats, you could just read from a page or two prior to D2 start and then the filters of the 4 in the cell. Our filters are not long.
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On March 05 2015 17:46 Oatsmaster wrote:
He doesnt give a reason why he checked onegu, and as far as I understood, Sandro was never reading onegu as scum.
He will have to manufacture one. I'm not harping on that point so much just because I think I could easily have checked Onegu if I had the cop power for a day.
It's more that, Sicklucker, Onegu and I are not in positions where we need a miracle play to avoid a lynch if we were mafia. It would be a really bad idea for any of us to do it. But, seriously, with how much of the dead Towns have Sandroba on their list, how can he survive without something wild?
Now would be the question what does he claim? Vet would be worthless and laughable. Doc? Well, there would be A LOT of discussion on why he didn't save Toad or Rayne wouldn't there be? To me Cop seems the safest with the payment of 1 less miss lynch.
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On March 05 2015 17:56 sicklucker wrote:
Breskes town because he knew I didnt make in thread reads on tube/rstoulin. Or did I?
You're right about Sandroba not being a cop, just cop for a day/night whatever is what I mean when I say it. I think it's a temporary power. Which makes it an even easier fakeclaim. No more follow up checks to make up.
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On March 05 2015 17:58 geript wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2015 17:55 sicklucker wrote:
You guys are so misinformed I might puke. Hes not a cop because theres no roles. Hes claiming he was given the power to check. Which that in itself is suspect since geript claims to have been given veg as well.
Or you know... we got powers, we used those powers. Like I don't get why sandroba getting a cop power would even be that surprising, especially if Syllo is town spirit.
It's definitely possible you are right that Syllo IS town spirit AND has the god read on Sandroba AND decided to give him a power.
Or Sandroba is claiming cop to survive.
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On March 05 2015 18:01 geript wrote:
I'm really dumb dealing with the stupidity. It wouldn't even surprise me if one of Tube/SL is mafia and the other is ninja.
Bring it. Let's dance. I'm perfectly happy turning this effectively into a duel between Sandroba and I.
Vote me. You must still like your case on me. You should have more ammo by now.
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On March 05 2015 18:05 Onegu wrote:
Here is the problem Geript one of the loudest people in the thread would be pushing my lynch so hard if I didn't have a green check, dead townies don't talk. I really believe sandaroba isn't the lynch, I would be if I didn't get a green check.
And my play is really underwhelming this game I know so I am not sure I would have been able to save myself or not. I'm telling you it really doesn't make sense for him to fake a check on the person most likely to get lynched in this cell.
If you are the least likely to get lynched then I would agree with you. But, I just find it hard to believe that you are. I honestly think you are the LEAST likely to be lynched here. I can't see how if you, Sick and I are town that you are actually the easiest mlynch.
I guess we have to agree to disagree on this point. It's really up to the thread to figure that out anyway. If you truly believe this is a true check, then you have to think I'm mafia. I'm doing a desparate play to survive. SL is just being SL. He's not mafia.
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On March 05 2015 18:01 geript wrote:
I'm really dumb dealing with the stupidity. It wouldn't even surprise me if one of Tube/SL is mafia and the other is ninja.
You built a case on me that you later said:
On March 05 2015 10:16 geript wrote:
I like my cs ein tube.
Which tell me isn't "drunk" text for "I like my case on tube."
But now "it wouldn't even surprise me if one of Tube is mafia.", I would be more "FUCK YEAH THIS GUY IS MAFIA!!! KILL WITH FIRE!!!!!"
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On March 05 2015 18:13 Breshke wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2015 18:10 Tubesock wrote:On March 05 2015 18:05 Onegu wrote:
Here is the problem Geript one of the loudest people in the thread would be pushing my lynch so hard if I didn't have a green check, dead townies don't talk. I really believe sandaroba isn't the lynch, I would be if I didn't get a green check.
And my play is really underwhelming this game I know so I am not sure I would have been able to save myself or not. I'm telling you it really doesn't make sense for him to fake a check on the person most likely to get lynched in this cell. If you are the least likely to get lynched then I would agree with you. But, I just find it hard to believe that you are. I honestly think you are the LEAST likely to be lynched here. I can't see how if you, Sick and I are town that you are actually the easiest mlynch. I guess we have to agree to disagree on this point. It's really up to the thread to figure that out anyway. If you truly believe this is a true check, then you have to think I'm mafia. I'm doing a desparate play to survive. SL is just being SL. He's not mafia. I find it really weird that you are totally over suspecting SL. Like yes some of his more recent activty has looked good but his D1 and "D1 reads have been retarded because he apparently posted like only 1/4 of his thoughts. Also Geript/Mocsta if you could say what your device action was that would be great probs wont be important but ehh
What do you mean? I've been really wishywashy on SL. The only thing I said about him that is scummy is he's not pissing me off which scares me. Now I think he's not mafia because I refuse to believe there are two mafia in this cell. Sandroba is the only one.
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Geript, we going to dance?
Why are you not coming at me like you did with "fucking stupid Epiphany". Like now you can't talk to a stupid person but you could earlier when you were talking to Epiphany?
You're just like HolyFlare in Carol.
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On March 05 2015 18:21 Oatsmaster wrote:
It doesn't make sense for scum sandro to confirm such a player as town though. Onegu is a complete possible mislynch.
And scum sandro will claim better. OK.
I'm thinking it's sl right now, his tone sounds a lot like it was at the end of office when he was scum too.
I would like to talk about this. Why do you think Onegu is more of a misslynch possibility than Sicklucker or I? Before these day started I had like 4 people saying I'm town. Two of them were being scummed by several people.
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On March 05 2015 18:23 AT.Epiphany wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2015 18:17 Tubesock wrote:On March 05 2015 18:13 Breshke wrote:On March 05 2015 18:10 Tubesock wrote:On March 05 2015 18:05 Onegu wrote:
Here is the problem Geript one of the loudest people in the thread would be pushing my lynch so hard if I didn't have a green check, dead townies don't talk. I really believe sandaroba isn't the lynch, I would be if I didn't get a green check.
And my play is really underwhelming this game I know so I am not sure I would have been able to save myself or not. I'm telling you it really doesn't make sense for him to fake a check on the person most likely to get lynched in this cell. If you are the least likely to get lynched then I would agree with you. But, I just find it hard to believe that you are. I honestly think you are the LEAST likely to be lynched here. I can't see how if you, Sick and I are town that you are actually the easiest mlynch. I guess we have to agree to disagree on this point. It's really up to the thread to figure that out anyway. If you truly believe this is a true check, then you have to think I'm mafia. I'm doing a desparate play to survive. SL is just being SL. He's not mafia. I find it really weird that you are totally over suspecting SL. Like yes some of his more recent activty has looked good but his D1 and "D1 reads have been retarded because he apparently posted like only 1/4 of his thoughts. Also Geript/Mocsta if you could say what your device action was that would be great probs wont be important but ehh What do you mean? I've been really wishywashy on SL. The only thing I said about him that is scummy is he's not pissing me off which scares me. Now I think he's not mafia because I refuse to believe there are two mafia in this cell. Sandroba is the only one. Tubesock, why do you "refuse to believe there are 2 mafia in the cell?". One is literally guaranteed and if you randomly choose 3 people from the remaining 18 or so, there's a pretty decent probability another one might be mafia.
OP says it's possible. But that would mean there is a 50% chance of landing on mafia and that's fucked up.
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On March 05 2015 18:27 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2015 18:24 Tubesock wrote:On March 05 2015 18:21 Oatsmaster wrote:
It doesn't make sense for scum sandro to confirm such a player as town though. Onegu is a complete possible mislynch.
And scum sandro will claim better. OK.
I'm thinking it's sl right now, his tone sounds a lot like it was at the end of office when he was scum too.
I would like to talk about this. Why do you think Onegu is more of a misslynch possibility than Sicklucker or I? Before these day started I had like 4 people saying I'm town. Two of them were being scummed by several people. He could just claim a check on someone not in the cell. The point was not that he faked a claim within the cell, it was that he could've faked a different claim. Someone that doesn't look town now but will easily avoid being lynched.
yes, that's certainly possible. I'm going to look to see if there is someone else he could have logically checked.
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On March 05 2015 18:28 Oatsmaster wrote:
Blah I'm not sure if that made sense but sandro could've chose anyone to fake a claim on and he faked it on someone that is up for lynch today and a possible mislynch is a bit too much for me to swallow.
Also, I already talked about this:
On March 05 2015 11:05 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2015 10:57 Breshke wrote:On March 05 2015 10:48 Tubesock wrote:On March 05 2015 10:40 sicklucker wrote:
Onegu if your town dont randomly believe your green check because its pretty sketchy I think Sandroba is either cop or a cop of sorts (mafia) + Show Spoiler +. So either way Onegu is pretty much confirmed town. Could you explain why you don't think they could be mafia together? Also the mafia spirit can give roles and i assume it isn't anything like mafia vigis since then that is too much kp for mafia (I think) so it is probably something like framers or like a one time godfather. It is possible that something like this was used on onegu so i don't think he is confirmed town. Onegu could be mafia sure. I just feel it's unlikely. I think Sandroba thought about how he would claim if he was actual cop and had someone outside of the cell and when. If he had a check from someone inside the cell (I think Onegu is a good check honestly) then it's pretty simple to say he should claim immediately. The choice is then who to pick inside the cell. If he checked me then I would be "confirmed" then I'm untouchable essentially. If my suspicions are right on Geript from what I've posted previously in my filter, they can't confirm me as Geript would probably die. So, Sicklucker or Onegu. I guess that could be a toss up. Sicklucker is an easier misslynch I think than Onegu is. Maybe he thought Onegu was the toughest mlynch and figured might as well go for him. People think both SL and I are ninjas, so half the work is already done.
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On March 05 2015 18:33 AT.Epiphany wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2015 18:27 Tubesock wrote:On March 05 2015 18:23 AT.Epiphany wrote:On March 05 2015 18:17 Tubesock wrote:On March 05 2015 18:13 Breshke wrote:On March 05 2015 18:10 Tubesock wrote:On March 05 2015 18:05 Onegu wrote:
Here is the problem Geript one of the loudest people in the thread would be pushing my lynch so hard if I didn't have a green check, dead townies don't talk. I really believe sandaroba isn't the lynch, I would be if I didn't get a green check.
And my play is really underwhelming this game I know so I am not sure I would have been able to save myself or not. I'm telling you it really doesn't make sense for him to fake a check on the person most likely to get lynched in this cell. If you are the least likely to get lynched then I would agree with you. But, I just find it hard to believe that you are. I honestly think you are the LEAST likely to be lynched here. I can't see how if you, Sick and I are town that you are actually the easiest mlynch. I guess we have to agree to disagree on this point. It's really up to the thread to figure that out anyway. If you truly believe this is a true check, then you have to think I'm mafia. I'm doing a desparate play to survive. SL is just being SL. He's not mafia. I find it really weird that you are totally over suspecting SL. Like yes some of his more recent activty has looked good but his D1 and "D1 reads have been retarded because he apparently posted like only 1/4 of his thoughts. Also Geript/Mocsta if you could say what your device action was that would be great probs wont be important but ehh What do you mean? I've been really wishywashy on SL. The only thing I said about him that is scummy is he's not pissing me off which scares me. Now I think he's not mafia because I refuse to believe there are two mafia in this cell. Sandroba is the only one. Tubesock, why do you "refuse to believe there are 2 mafia in the cell?". One is literally guaranteed and if you randomly choose 3 people from the remaining 18 or so, there's a pretty decent probability another one might be mafia. OP says it's possible. But that would mean there is a 50% chance of landing on mafia and that's fucked up. Except it would be a violation of the game rules if he ensured only one was mafia. The rules specifically state players will be randomly nominated.
I disagree but this point is completely irrelevant to my theory so what's the point?
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Is there really that much more risk by "checking" someone in the cell than outside?
If someone had a cop check on someone and ended up in a cell with them it's an absolute no brainer to claim like Sandroba did.
If the check was outside, wouldn't you claim differently? You guys already kinda thought the claim was too casual as it was.
Plus, hell I'd gamble that Onegu who hasn't really been motivated to play wouldn't be further motivated with a green check. Now you just have to fight against 2 people instead of 3.
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On March 05 2015 18:46 Breshke wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2015 18:43 Tubesock wrote:
Is there really that much more risk by "checking" someone in the cell than outside?
If someone had a cop check on someone and ended up in a cell with them it's an absolute no brainer to claim like Sandroba did.
If the check was outside, wouldn't you claim differently? You guys already kinda thought the claim was too casual as it was.
Plus, hell I'd gamble that Onegu who hasn't really been motivated to play wouldn't be further motivated with a green check. Now you just have to fight against 2 people instead of 3. yeah but onegu not being motivated to play would be good for a scum sandroba Also there is definitely more risk. By our own accord you are thinking onegu was confirmed so that means its 1/3 instead of 1/4 of sandroba being lynched.
Well, I think though that Onegu being on the lynch table would be motivated to play. Then it makes it harder for Sandroba. If Onegu has a check, wouldn't he be less motivated to play? Just like Robik just now who saw he wasn't in the cell and said he'd be back in 3 days? The risk is motivated Onegu vs unmotivated but forever town confirmed Onegu? Plus, he can be shot at night and that makes it easier for Geript to rationalize him surviving nights.
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On March 05 2015 18:52 geript wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2015 18:43 Tubesock wrote:
Is there really that much more risk by "checking" someone in the cell than outside?
If someone had a cop check on someone and ended up in a cell with them it's an absolute no brainer to claim like Sandroba did.
If the check was outside, wouldn't you claim differently? You guys already kinda thought the claim was too casual as it was.
Plus, hell I'd gamble that Onegu who hasn't really been motivated to play wouldn't be further motivated with a green check. Now you just have to fight against 2 people instead of 3. Yes. Because mafia want to create a lynch between 3 people instead of 4 people. Especially when the person they're removing someone from the possibility of being lynched. Like it's really ridiculous to me. People get powers. We know this. I know that either someone RB'd me or that Sepulchre is not town because I shot his ass last night. Like Sandro claiming a greencheck on an easy mislynch when he's mafia is pretty insane. Like really insane. Like I can't believe that Artanis would be a Bastard host and have 2 mafia in the group. I think he just worded it that way because he wanted to be able to include ninjas. Like so far only 2 people have claimed getting powers, Me and Sandro. Kita's response probably means he got a power too. I'm guess he got medic because that makes the most sense overall.
I don't think it's that insane. I think it's the only sane play he could make. If Sandroba doesn't claim he dies. Even if he were town he was going to die. How could he survive that many dead town scumreads on him? You think no one is going to pick up on that? That you towned him while Rayn and Toad scummed him?
Sicklucker constantly survives to endgame. Onegu is well respected and I think probably tougher to lynch in a cell than any of us in here. That leaves me. I had 4 people towning me, but lots of nulls.
I literally think it's more possible that he's town fakeclaiming than he is real.
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EPT
