EPT##Vote: The WarWaffle....lol
Newbie Mini Mafia LXI
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
##Vote: The WarWaffle....lol | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On January 28 2015 12:49 rsoultin wrote: i'd like to /obs since I think I've finally "graduated" from newbie @.@ want to see if my toneread on my bro holds even when he rolls scum let's see your scumgame bro xP WOAH WOAH WOAH. U can't STUDY my scumgame! I'm full of mystery and....things and stuff.... lol | ||
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jarjarbinks
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That learning curve tho | ||
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jarjarbinks
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so if I don't do that....I'm scum? dang it lolz | ||
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On January 30 2015 10:10 rsoultin wrote: I know, right? xP That's okay. You scum me in every game when you have no decent reads, just cause I could possibly (but have never in the past) fool you xP -beats with a wet noodle- lol waaaaaaaaaat no I totally have decent reads like all the time xD u obviously were super suspicious! All like 20 billion pages of filter was suspicious! | ||
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jarjarbinks
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Trf: Low content game because of it being a newbie game? Or because of valentines day? | ||
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On February 15 2015 15:09 rsoultin wrote: Lol, we've at least given people something to read when they return? I'm also looking forward to JJB playing ^^ I really want to see him play scum to see if my toneread on him holds water as both alignments. Psh. You don't know me! lol I'm like super secretive and stuff lol | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 15 2015 15:12 Trfel wrote: I'm mostly worried about this game because it is a newbie game. Historically, newbie games tend to be significantly more mafia favored than normal games, and the newbie game Day 1 mafia lynch percentage is lower than random guessing (oh the irony...). I think that this is primarily due to inactivity. I could see that, I think my first game (the newbie one) was only like 50 ish pages while the student one (my second) was like 100. Guessing its due to a lack of confidence? | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 15 2015 15:14 rsoultin wrote: Speak of the devil ^^ Did you have a hot date tonight I don't know about, bro? Probably not -amused- I'm sure there's a how-to online somewhere, though >> I could just google it xP Nope, totally 5th wheeled a weird after church double date thing tho. I should prob get one of those date things. LOL just make sure you don't actually read all of the rules first | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 15 2015 15:20 rsoultin wrote: Or my role PM? xP Dude, if only you'd posted that in-thread; it could totally make the wtf awards ^^ So, opinions on any of the players/goings-on thus far? Trf's opening: slightly less crazy than last game I played with him in. No random vote the guy who might be inactive play. Wants to promote discussion. I could go either way cuz he "tried" to do that as scum. Shining- not much reaction there. What i'd typically expect I guess? You- I expect you to do what you do every game. You did it...lol Everyone else: I'm guessing they are gone for valentine's. I'd get worried if people aren't chiming in when I wake up tomorrow. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 15 2015 15:31 rsoultin wrote: That's probably fair given the state of the game at the moment. No amazing insights from the numbers man :/ Yep. My insights=pile of crap lol 4 new people right? | ||
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jarjarbinks
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I guess I could see either mafia or strong town reads be more willing to break the cycle over more quiet town. They are probably going to lead the vote wagons and the discussions anyways? | ||
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On February 15 2015 22:58 zlefin wrote: I can't explain my reads well, they're only quite mild reads at this point. For Trfel, it's partly a tonal read, and partly that he's encouraging discussion and trying to get things going. So he's either town, or a well-played (and hence dangerous) scum. For jarjar, it's just an impression, I can't really explain why. Could you use a quote or something to explain Trf's? | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 16 2015 01:07 Hier wrote: Please be careful of what you say, typically only a mafia player would include themselves in a set of people that require "strong reads"; it's done for inclusion's sake because the mafia don't have "reads" - they can see everything as is. Your rationale is flawed. People with strong reads are more willing to break the links, not less. Further, the number of switches you have has nothing to do with how susceptible you are to be pressured to a vote. With 2 people, out of only 9, dying every vote cycle having more than 1 switch trivializes the tool, which is what The Bridges is, and deprives each switch of its subtle meaning. Don't assume everyone here can't comprehend a simple set of rules. In a vacuum nothing can force a superior outcome, however passivity favours mafia. Hit me, what "better ways" are you thinking of right now? In your experience, is the use of a smiley face signal scum for you? What about people analysing your analysis of that suspiciously sarcastic undertone some guy is utilizing? Can you analyse that analysis of your analysis and get a good read on the person? We can go around in circles aimlessly. An engraved method forces people with a little too much knowledge to act the way people without said knowledge wouldn't. He made a mistake and meant the opposite of what he said in the quote you posted. Still I really liked your post here. Have you used this idea in a past game? Has it seen success? Did you just come up with it? | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 16 2015 01:21 rsoultin wrote: You don't see a problem with the simple fact that town is in the dark and mafia isn't? Most games I've played I have so many nullish or slight leans, especially early game, but using a one-time-ability on someone I'm far from certain of? That's lolworthy when it might better be preserved for later xP Also, town not knowing each other for sure, what's to encourage making reads if the lynch is already set at start of day? How will you make your vote analysis? Not a fan of this style of play at all. If it was so effective, it would already be in use. Good point. Only if everyone is actively discussed how inclined they are to save the person would there be any real discussion. If the person being "autolynched" is someone you aren't sure of or isn't you, then there isn't much incentive to use your one-time only switch. So if no one uses their switch then there probably won't be much of anything going on. I guess this strategy is banking on people using their switch? | ||
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jarjarbinks
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jarjarbinks
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My spreadsheet doesn't take into account people's reads though. Say rsoultin (almost always townread by everyone in the game every game) is on the chop block, I'm pretty sure someone would use their switch on her. If she's mafia, for obvious reasons. If she's town, then because everyone thinks she's town and knows that it is a mistake. That goes right back to mafia have perfect information over town not having it. If we used the bridge strategy, our only real hope would be to: 1. figure out how mafia would NK based on that strategy, which looks very similar to WIFOM. 2. Heavily analyze ANY switch that is made. It should mean a lot for someone to use their 1 free pass to make the switch. Which also might seem a little WIFOMy. I'm not sure how to judge people based on their reactions to the system. I was the only one that liked it and backtracked later through rsoultin and excel. I tried to think of something similar to this for my last game for similar reasons to what Hier pointed out. Everyone else didn't like it. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 16 2015 03:11 rsoultin wrote: I'll poke silverarte. Also, Trfel, same thought on JJB's post. JJB, can you show me how you arrived at the 47% number? I'm not as good at math but I can at least verify that it's valid when I see it in front of me.  Not as quick to read Hiel...hie...whatever his name is lol >< as town, though. Throwing things into a random number generator and drawing an (MSpaint?) graphic isn't exactly a ton of work, and he's done nothing to show that he cares about finding scum. Maybe when he comes back he'll change my mind. Ya I messed up lolz I got to 33% by multiplying 7/9 (chance of town being rng'd) by 5/7 (same thing on day 2) by 3/5 (same thing on day 3). That would be the chance that 3 towns rng died with nightkills. I didn't take blue roles into account, which could change things in towns favor I would assume. | ||
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On February 16 2015 07:50 Hier wrote: Trfel: It only takes one other player to declare his or her support for the model to get people to support its use. I know how Bridges works and how to use it to get a town victory. I will always abide by its rules, but if you later decide it's not worth it by all means abandon it. Maybe if you shared how useful it is for a town victory we would be more accepting? | ||
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jarjarbinks
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Maybe next game you can be mother hen xD lol | ||
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On February 16 2015 09:07 The Shining wrote: Um, is no one going to even remotely address my slight push on Zlefin? Odd. Hmm, I would say that Zlefin will probably need to address more opinions than what he has. You were commenting on the inactives before your push on zlefin too. That being said, you have given your reads while he has not. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 16 2015 09:30 Trfel wrote: Ahhh, I need to get dinner, and I haven't finished reading the thread yet... Point made, I am the slowest reader ever. More thoughts will come after dinner. For now, I will talk about the Bridges method. I think that it is a bad idea to use the Bridges method in this game. The main reason for this is that so far, seven players have commented on it (all except for Silverarte and Mimeux/replacement), and six of them seem to have said that they don't think it is a good method (jarjarbinks is the only player who I might be misinterpreting here, though). The only one clearly in favor of it is its creator, Hier. That said, I still think that it is a suboptimal way to play the game. My reasons for this have been stated many times, by myself and others. Therefore, I do not think that we will be using the method in this game, and I expect everyone to agree with this, since we need to work together. Hier, it seems to me that your reason for creating the Bridges method is to make the game more objective, and more based on logic instead of guesswork. Mafia can, and often is, played with the focus on logic instead of randomly guessing. Cases involving logical arguments are extremely powerful. Unless there is something we are missing from this method that magically makes our reads easier, I would have to say that it isn't a good method. I think it would work better if we were playing a mafia game where we could see each other's faces or something along those lines. I agree we should all decide NOT to use the method. Most people are more confident in their vote analysis (including me) than in something they haven't used before. It doesn't make sense for 1 or 2 people to use the method while everyone else doesn't in my mind. My read on Hier based on his play: I think he's town. Made up a strange method that he obviously believes in. Does it work? Probably not. He was willing to stand up for it though. I don't see why he would suggest this idea as a trap. Maybe it is hindsight, but I also don't see him doing it to get towncred. I think he should now focus on getting an idea of reads on people instead of fighting angry Rso. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 16 2015 09:31 Trfel wrote: Town can never be wrong. Your statement is wrong, so you are scum. lolz dang it you caught me! lol | ||
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Rsoultin: if say no one joined your bandwagon, do you have anyone else you are suspicious of? | ||
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On February 16 2015 10:38 rsoultin wrote: Yes lol. We still have about 24 hours, and some of the participating players I haven't looked into very closely yet. Also, angry Rso? ;o; I'm just animated. If you think Hier is town solely for his creation, who do you think is scum, JJB? lol angry because you scared away the newbie! Hmm you have a point there. I don't have a legitimate scumread that I would be confident in voting on right now. Let me go reread and see if I can pick up something xD Initially I would be worried about Zfelin and Shining (although I really liked Shining's last post about me and Trf). Silver still hasn't posted, so hopefully that happens soon. I didn't like Trf's pocket comment/joke (was it a joke?). While I thought that making a weird strategy was townie, it would be nice for Hiel to answer all of the questions people asked him. I have like Elyas's posts so far to a degree. Much better than my first game on here that's for sure lol | ||
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jarjarbinks
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Ya the whole scumreading your partner day 1 thing is kinda a toss up. Not smart, but I could see someone doing it just because they think as scum you wouldn't do it. WIFOM or whatever. But after rereading your filter in context, I really like your posts after the beginning. You are scumhunting and stuff. I did defend Hier before, I don't think he's actually scumhunted (although he put the impression on me that he wasn't into diving through language to get reads). Ely has asked some questions and appears to be scumhunting a little bit in my mind. More than others at least. Not on my top scumlist. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 16 2015 07:58 rsoultin wrote: Didn't you say that you'd just made this method up? And again, you're focusing on the model and not what I'm asking you for. @Trfel - I am not in favor of Bridges. Clearly. Even if Hier would be the next "auto-lynch" and I'd laugh my ass off if he flips scum, caught in his own mechanism Hier, I know a lot of people have been asking you questions. Can you answer this one? Should be easy enough? | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 16 2015 13:10 rsoultin wrote: I've already answered this, Trfel, lol. I'm getting more and more of a scum feel from Hier...though I do want to know what it is about Elyas' posting that JJB likes. He's making very little impact on me even after a second read-through. Kind of difficult to get any read on the two outliers. I have reasons to townread or at least put slight town leans on everyone but: Hier Elyas Silver Mime!replacement right now, so those would be the ones I'd lynch out of, all things remaining equal. Hier could still change my mind, but his reluctance to actually engage with not just me, but most of the rest of the thread, isn't sitting well. Your right, not too much impact. But he did scumread me and followed up with questions. He had a reasoning to read me that way as well if I remember right. Plus he did ask 2 other questions on things that didn't make sense to him. Not a lot, but given how many posts he's made it is good enough to give him BOD right now. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 16 2015 21:17 zlefin wrote: no, I cannot. It wasn't a read from a single post, or two posts, unlike a fair portion of my mild reads; it was a gestalt impression of all his posts up until the time I'd made that post. Was this the question you wanted answered? Please be sure to confirm yes/no. You answered it. Thanks lol I just wanted to make sure that you were not basing your reads specifically off a post, but more tonal. You have new reads and it appears you are more confident in those so I won't dwell on those past ones too much. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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[QUOTE]On February 17 2015 00:42 Trfel wrote: Okay, time for a revised post on The Shining, hopefully I'm a little more awake now.
In addition to this, some of The Shining's other posts seem to show genuine scumhunting and thinking. So I am not entirely sure on The Shining. I would definitely like to hear people's thoughts, including The Shining's.[/QUOTE] - You making a controversial opening post to "generate discussion" is something you did in your scum game xP I'm not seeing a problem with him being wary of that. - My scum game was Horn. Unless he read it, he doesn't know my scum game here, and he quite easily catches me on our other forum lol xP So I can see him being confident of a read on me, however unjustified it may be. (Also, would tend to disagree that I play scum well, but that's not really a discussion for this thread.) - I, too, disagree with his Zlefin read. Not enough to call him scum for it, but it's weak. - That last point is probably the only one I would consider scum-like...getting defensive so quickly before anyone is really scumreading you. Probably best to recheck the context.[/QUOTE] Shining does get defensive easily sometimes. He's only played a few games, but he typically does lash out at people that scum him. I saw the defensiveness as purely that. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 17 2015 03:33 Tere wrote: While you are here, would you explain why you posted the bolded bit to rsoulin? I am lacking in the meta here. Thanks  Sure. Rsoultin's basic strategy every game is to pry at little things in the beginning which accomplishes two things. 1: She appears town to everyone (almost always is accepted as town regardless of alignment) 2: Starts discussion. 3: She is probably the best player in this game I've seen do this, so it appeals to her strengths. The discussion part helps town, plus she might get someone to slip. I generally don't read her one way or another because of it. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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I came up with a third on the fly | ||
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jarjarbinks
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Care to share those when you get the chance? | ||
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On February 17 2015 00:31 zlefin wrote: I did read the earlier post, and recognize it's likely to be a joke in response to a joke, I still don't like it though. And it's not like I have piles of reads to work with, so I'll take what I can get. So is this like your strongest read of the game? Deserving of a -2 score? | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 17 2015 03:54 rsoultin wrote: This is pretty fair, actually. Even if you haven't played with me as both alignments, you brat xP (He's actually quite paranoid of me ^^ It's cute. If ever he's not sure who is scum, he'll default to me )HEY I've held my tongue this game lol | ||
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jarjarbinks
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1. Doesn't really explain scumreads, besides my joke. 2. Is kind of scumhunting, but not really. 3. Most reads are pure tonal. Which is fine, but I can't back that. zlefin if you answer my above question and I like it, I am willing to change my vote. Hier, please post you still have a chance of not dying today. People switch votes all the time in this game. Answering questions helps people understand your thinking and if your town that is good for you | ||
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Tere: You seem like a nice version of my sister lol It looks like you make tonal reads but have some backing to them which is nice. I think what you said about mime has some truth to it. I agree with some of Trf's suspicions of you because some of it reminds me of my sister so I believe you have the ability to fool me. But as of right now count me fooled, I'm giving you a townlean right now. Silver: I don't know what to think about you so far. I think your excuses are definitely justified, but it does hurt my ability to read you. Some people don't like wall posts, but you will need to get all of your thoughts out when you are here. Voting Hier is justifiable right now, but I don't see that as scumhunting. You have me worried. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 17 2015 04:19 zlefin wrote: each read I only score as a single point, unless it's really strong, this was a 1 point scum read; the other -1 came from a general tonal impression over the first RL day or so. Got it. Can you explain your Trf flip reasoning from before? | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 17 2015 00:34 rsoultin wrote: Got it in one, lol. Okay, good, cause that's where our mindmeld starts to diverge :/ Even when I stepped back and gave him plenty of room to breathe, cause yeah, you were right that I can be intimidating and that defeats the purpose, he still was highly defensive and closed off. This makes me uncomfortable. Another thing that makes me uncomfortable is your lack of direction so far this game, unless after sleeping you're still scumreading Shining? (I have to look at that case closer, and will do that while deciding whether or not to keep pushing Hier) Trf has talked a lot, which I generally perceive as town. When I read this earlier, I agreed with it. When you voted Hier later while saying you weren't really into it, but wouldn't find a counter wagon, it reminded me of this quote again. Do you have better candidates as of now? Who are you willing to change your vote for? Who is your top scumread? | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 17 2015 03:11 zlefin wrote: rso -> I need to go back over the thread to answer that more thoroughly, which I plan to do at some point, not necessarily now though. It's an impression I've formed that he's at the nexus of several conversations, and that if I knew he was town, I could point to 2-3 people as the likeliest scum in response, and if I knew he was scum, I could point to 1-2 people as the likeliest other scum. To put another way, I the feeling I get is that if I knew his alignment, it would really strongly narrow down my my suspects, whereas for some other people, a lynch wouldn't help me much. But again, I really need to go back over everything to make sure my feel has some validity. If you could explain the people you would point to that was where I was going. I want to see if you caught something I didn't and see how your reading people. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 17 2015 04:30 rsoultin wrote: Psst, is that directed at me or Trfel, JJB? lolz Trf xD | ||
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On February 17 2015 05:59 Tere wrote: It's not my neck on the chopping block. I guess Hier doesn't want to defend himself  It doesn't hurt to answer his stuff first does it? | ||
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I think a wagon could be made for zlefin, although now I am the only vote on it. It seems like multiple people suspect him, but Hier more. I am willing to change my vote to make it mean something, I will keep it on Zle for now Shinings reads right now could be helpful. He is around it seems. Elyas, thanks for the response, if you have insight on other players that could be helpful, please share! | ||
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Who would you push for right now? | ||
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On February 17 2015 07:37 zlefin wrote: I don't have anyone I really want to vote for, or I'd vote for them. All I have are a few weak reads on some people, the table I keep is like this currently: Trfel 0/2 Shining rsoultin 1/1 elyas jarjar -2/2 tere hier 0/2 silver -1/1 which given that points are minor reads (not necessarily of the same strength, any time I get a feel one way or another due to a post, or a general impression, I put a point in on someone) means I don't have any good target. If I were vigilante, I'd save my shot for better reads later. If I had to choose, I'd probably choose jarjar, since he's the guy I have two negatives on. It looks like your table change for Trf and Silver since last time you posted it. What did they say/do that made you give them a point? | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 17 2015 08:30 rsoultin wrote: JJB, what has you so sure that Hier is town? It isn't that I 100% believe he's town. It's that he has 6 votes on him. He IS suspicious, I give you that. I wanted to vote him if he actually meant that he's still somehow sticking to his bridges plan when no one else is doing it lol Maybe it was that you started the wagon on him but it just seems like EVERYONE is against him, and that makes me wonder. Parts of his posts make me think he is town, and is just angry that everyone is against him. | ||
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On February 17 2015 08:39 The Shining wrote: Sry guys, on mobile, I had to go to my moms and its really hard to read on my phone. =/ Went and voted for Hier in voting thread, sheeping my town read honestly. Unfortunate. Looking forward to your reads later on. | ||
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On February 17 2015 08:45 rsoultin wrote: Why do you think Zlefin is the better lynch? Sometimes scum does buss in these scenarios, but I'd be lying if I said I was fully comfortable with a landslide vote like this, especially on Day 1. Zlefin was my top scumtarget before and I haven't exactly liked his responses lately too. Putting a point system together is something I thought of doing before (with votes instead of posts) but it seems like he is just adding and subtracting points and not informing us why he is doing it. Anyone can add and subtract points, and you don't even need to make reads to do it. I voted for him and still have it there because: 1: Switching to Hier right now is pointless and doesn't change the game at all 2: I wanted to provide a possible counterwagon in case other people had doubts on Hier like me. 3. Other people thought zlefin's play has been suspicious 4. I think Zlefin is scum. I hate outliers, so being alone on this is bothersome. Rsoultin: I asked Hier a question on sticking to his bridge theory about a page ago, ill re-pull it up. What do you think he was saying there? | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 17 2015 07:25 Hier wrote: This was weak, and contradictory. The very first line of your very first game-related post was you voting to have me lynched. You did not try and "reach out to me" and "engage" with me, as you have put it. You came in as scum, saw a town player having a lot of votes, and auto-voted. It's really that simple. I have said you were a scumread for me, and, as per your request to clarify, I have explained why; it has partially to do with your case against me. To you that's tunnelling. This is at least the second time you are hiding behind the word "playstyle". Anything that seems amiss about your play you attribute to your personal playstyle, thinking it successfully defends against accusations. But, as promised, I will answer your question you wanted answered at the time of the agreement: Yes, I have always intended to use the Bridges method, after having pointed out that insubordination is part of its intentionally limiting design. Naturally, being the only person to oblige by its rules is meaningless, because the Bridges is meant to be a play method, not an explicit set of rules each individual is meant to follow. Does he mean that he is still using the method? I think his vote proves otherwise, unless he made his one-time switch. | ||
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On February 17 2015 08:57 Tere wrote: You posted this He posted his vote 12 mins later. Prob why he didn't want to bring attention to it. Is it alignment indicative? | ||
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On February 17 2015 08:58 rsoultin wrote: Ah, lol >< well, that makes sense. Is anyone down for shenannies? I just want to see if it's possible. Who would be your targets? If I remember right you are suspicious of Hier and Zlefin, somebody else I'm missing? I don't really think Tere is lynchable today. | ||
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Hope you play again Hier lol I'm going to take a break. | ||
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Feel free to ask me questions if you are suspicious of me. | ||
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On February 18 2015 08:33 Trfel wrote: You haven't been very active in the night, have you. That makes me a little suspicious. I still don't see much reason to scumread you right now, but tomorrow I am expecting more from you. It's OK i'm suspicious of you too lol Only question I see on second glance is the two bullet thing so i'll chime in in a few minutes let me go read up a little on some filters before I narrow 4 to 2 | ||
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Looking through filters I'm shooting Elyas and Tere. I'll explain those first. | ||
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#1: Bandwagoned hard lol Of my top four (Elyas, Trf, Silver, Tere) Elyas' play on the bandwagon seemed the most scummy, although a case could be made for Trf. Elyas wasn't around EOD really, and it seemed like Elyas was like "I think this is a mislynch, but o well I guess it is what it is" Mafia can do one of two things after a successful mislynch, distance or nothing (I guess it is possible to keep scumreading them until its over to avoid looking like this). I see Elyas EOD play as slight distancing, enough to be noticed but not draw too much suspicion. #2: Not much going on: I think somebody mentioned this earlier. Rsoultin I think. I see a lot of talking about doing something substantial in Elyas' filter but I haven't seen anything substantial. Elyas is new, so that could be the reasoning, but it could also be alignment indicative. #3: Reads are nothing new: Scummed Hiel first, then zfelin next, then Tier. Actually, Elyas might have been the first on Tere, but that was half sheeping Hiel's vote "if he flips town". I haven't seen Elyas have any reads that would require real scumhunting. Granted again, Elyas is new. #4: Has Elyas done anything after Day 1? I would say not really lol Made some reads, not too much backing them up. I actually think Zfelin's done a better job backing his stuff up now than Elyas. | ||
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On February 18 2015 09:19 Trfel wrote: Jarjarbinks, it would be great if you would make yourself extremely clear town so I don't have to worry about this. Can you do that for me? Lol you've been in my past games. I think I'm getting better but who knows. I'm workin up my Tere right now but im free to chat with after | ||
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Tere: 1: Hier voted for Tere: This is definitely WIFOM. This is also based on numbers I've seen and will be hard to explain, but I will try my best. WIFOM reads are generally perceived as 50-50. From what I have seen in previous (non-newbie games), WIFOM reads from town are actually decent reads on average. Better than 50-50. Especially the reads where the dead townie voted for someone on his/her own. This is great (and you could say hard for me to prove) but you do have to ask yourself if Hier was simply retaling (if forgot the acronym) Tere's aggressive lynch or if he was on to something. I honestly think Hier believed in his vote, which makes me think Tere is more suspicious. 2. Sometimes Tier has been unresponsive to rather simple or weak pokes at her. I've never played with her before and she could play this way as town, but I think this is suspicious. I think this argument has been made by others, so I won't dive too hard, but it is suspicious. 3. Tere was in the bandwagon group, at least to begin with, but then went hard on Hier as time went on. In my eyes, this shows she acted the most like town of the four (Tere, Trf, Silver, Elyas). I put her in this group because she initially bandwagonned. Making a caveat to my own biases, I perceived her to act like my sister due to the first few posts she's made. I will try not to do that in the future. | ||
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On February 18 2015 10:51 Trfel wrote: Okay, I've gone through rsoultin's filter. Unfortunately, a good amount of it was talking to Hier and me, and that doesn't really help me at this time, since I already know my alignment and Hier is dead. A lot of rsoultin's statements have already been influential in my reads, so there actually wasn't as much new useful information as I had hoped (not rsoultin's fault!). I really like bullet point lists, but the post looks terrible with those, so I'll just use lines to divide things. I think it's mostly readable. (for those of you who think I spend too much time on formatting, believe me, it's important. In my first game, people often avoided reading my posts due to poor formatting.) Last game The Shining played, he was mafia. I was also in that game, and I was mafia. I opened with a controversial opening that made me the center of attention. This game, I opened with a controversial opening again, which made me the center of attention for the first page or so (not very long). The Shining was suspicious of me, as expected. However, he townread Hier for proposing the Bridges method because it put him in the spotlight. Hrm. I guess that takes a lot of the steam out of the mafia!jarjarbinks idea. Then again... Now I'm really wishing that I had asked rsoultin to elaborate on this instead of intentionally avoiding discussion on the topic. I have absolutely no idea why she would say this. Does anyone know? Rsoultin is scumreading The Shining while I am not, but all the same, I will keep this in mind. I had originally townread the Shining, and despite not explaining his read EoD or really at all until now, I still think he is town. Him switching to sheep does seem stupid, but would mafia do that just to save face? It doesn't seem right, the only reason that he would do that as mafia that I could think of is to avoid looking like he's distancing (and/or maybe making me look bad, but that seems very farfetched). I feel like his switch was genuinely because he didn't have a great scumread and didn't have time to find a better one so he followed his strongest town. Your parellels to Shining's previous scum game are interesting, but I don't feel like its a strong case to scum him. Maybe something just to keep in mind for now. | ||
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On February 17 2015 22:57 zlefin wrote: oh, and I'm dinging tere another point for the suspicions from here and trfel's analysis. Prob not your best quote to use but it proves my point. I like the way you are playing D2. Thanks for explaining your reads more as you make them lol This shows that you are thinking through and are scumhunting. | ||
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I see what you are saying on #2, but if it takes little time to resolves someone's suspicions and it helps get them scumhunting on somebody else, that would help town. But point taken, if there is too many pokes or weak reads against Tere, then it might be better to ignore and focus on scumhunting. | ||
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GIve me a sec, I'll do it by point. | ||
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The character thing I agree with. I expect her to have about as much experience as you do, although I don't know if she can boast that 25% success rate of lynching though lol I think I originally treated her like she was on Rso's level (no offense lol) and I think I should have treated her more like on your or Shining's level. | ||
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This is very true, and I thought your case on this was stronger than others. If she is mafia, I could definitely see her doing this to get some thread presence. From a town perspective, Hier did look very suspicious to everyone in the game and she had the least time to scumread others. Given the amount of counterwagons (1 if you count zfelin, i'm not really sure if that counted as a legitamite counter), I could see why she focused on Hier over the rest. | ||
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lol should I keep going? | ||
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This part could be noteworthy, she didn't seem affected. That could be the result of anger "he deserved it as town" but it is suspicious. If I was one of the hardest, if not the hardest pusher, on a mislynch I would think I would at least be a bit bummed. I don't think she was that contradictory. I think she was the most set on a Hier lynch EOD out of us all. | ||
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True but look around. Rso was universally townread. You were pretty townread by most if not all. You could probably say this for most of us. More experienced players play this game better and are better at appearing town. You could make an argument that her reads based on skill show a lack of effort? | ||
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You did this as well as Elyas. It is suspicious, but obviously one of you guys are town and you all did it xD While I think mafia is definitely in your group, obviously a town person did this. Thinking about it now hurts my scumreads on the three of you... lol I need to go to sleep lol I'll be on for a few more minutes if you want to keep chattin lol | ||
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On February 18 2015 13:33 Trfel wrote: That's precisely the argument. It takes no effort to say what makes sense, what sounds right. But the goal isn't to lynch the person who says incorrect things, the goal is to lynch the mafia. I didn't see that in Tere's filter on Day 1. Agreed, and her latest reads have you two at the top again. Most effort in her latest post is on Shining which is good. Do you think that scumread took a lot of effort? | ||
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On February 18 2015 13:38 Trfel wrote: Stay up for a few more minutes please? Thanks a bunch for answering my request. I took a cursory look at your posts, I'll definitely take a more through look tomorrow. (tonight I am reading ElyAs, tomorrow on to other people) It's all good. Thoughts on Elyas so far? | ||
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On February 18 2015 13:45 Trfel wrote: Jarjarbinks, I feel like getting an accurate read on you is going to be extremely difficult. Allow me to explain why. I feel like we base our play around completely different things, and we look for entirely different things. Thus, for me to get an accurate read on you, I have to do it by your standards, but I'm having trouble figuring out how to go about that. The biggest example of this is that you immediately dismissed my case on Tere because I myself am guilty of some of the things I mentioned in the case. I place a ton of value on subjective arguments and the validity of various arguments, as well as the level of critical thinking shown. Meanwhile, I'm under the impression that you look for more reasons that are purely objective, such as votes, night kills, and numbers. Is this a correct assessment? I don't know if you are town based on filter length alone. I don't know if you are town based on potentially fooling rsoultin. I have no scumgame of yours to look at for information. Therefore, the more reads you can provide, it would help a ton. I really really want to get this lynch, and it's going to require ALL townies to raise their game. I know that I'm going to try and put in a ton more effort. What is your overall conclusion on my case on Tere? Is it good or bad? How does this affect your stance on Tere and myself, and why? Thanks a ton for being willing to discuss with me. It's immensely helpful. It's cool. Yes lol I look at objective things more than subjective, because well I suck at the subjective. I'm trying to get better as these games go on but honestly this game is not my forte. I've spent more hours building a spreadsheet that most vets disapprove of lol I haven't gone a game where people besides my sister think i'm actually town. Null maybe? Town definitely not lol I actually have never played scum so I can't help you there lol The only thing I can think of doing is provide you as much information as possible. I think I was being devil's advocate when commenting on your case lol You made some points I agree on. The effort thing is something to look into. She has a pretty high filter, but effort on scumhunting is what matters. I'm not suspicious enough to lynch her at the moment, but I would favor her over zfelin for sure lol | ||
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I'll go reread his filter. Sleep is for the weak. | ||
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On February 15 2015 20:08 ElyAs wrote: Actually, I'm gonna elaborate on this. Although I don't like Trfel's opening, he is clearly trying to start discussions so I can't scumread him for that. I'm just gonna keep this in mind for later, but not gonna vote for him day 1. Shining posted a bit and disappeared, his last post was hinting towards "I'm gonna post more later", I expect you to do it. Until then nullread Rsoultin discussed with Trfel, then with jarjar, she is asking questions, which what I'd expect from town. jarjarbinks is sharing his insight on rsoultin's demand, but apart from that, not a lot of content. What do you think of Hier's plan ? Hier only posted his plan, and I've given my thoughts on that. I like this post. Makes me think he is thinking through the game relatively well. Especially his comment on me lol | ||
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On February 18 2015 13:58 Trfel wrote: Okay, thanks. I'll have to accept the fact that you are probably town. Though I hope you understand that I still need to make a detailed check of your filter and your past games. As to the last part of my question, how did this discussion and my case on Tere affect your read on me? And far more importantly, why? (note that there is no set right/wrong answer to this question, I'm interested in the explanation). Then you can go to sleep XD Lol Despite not agreeing with a lot of things you have said, your have definitely shown the most effort in scumhunting to this point. I was there in your last scumgame and if you are scum then this is massive improvement. Like beyond massive. There were some actions you took that I disapprove of (#1 being your actions EOD on D1, but you at least were around at the end), but since then you have honestly been scumhunting and scumhunting hard. I'd be blind not to see that lol Your argument was a subset of that. Some of your reads weren't exactly strong. If you voted Tere based off your argument I wouldn't join. I want to see what her plan that she was talking about is. I also want to see her reaction to all of these scumreads. But the amount of effort you took in making it strengthen's your case for being town. | ||
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I see this two ways: 1: Distances himself. Makes an easy but decent case on zfelin. Talks about maybe Tere being bad, but doesn't really muster an argument. Looks like he's scumhunting when isn't. 2: Actually believes what he says. Waffles on Hier. Makes an easy but decent case on Zfelin and realizes its not super strong. Moves on to Tere, but doesn't make a case due to Shining switching. This is definitely possible, my only problem with this outlook is that Elyas' case on Tere seems lacking compared to the other two cases he already made. The points ring a bit, but do you see how it has less effort? I'll attach it below this post as I still suck at formatting lol Obviously I originally thought #1 was more likely. Maybe I'm wrong. Let me know your thoughts. | ||
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On February 18 2015 02:38 ElyAs wrote: First, I've been following from my intention to check Hier's posts on Tere. Tere did vote for Hier really fast, but this is where I think I'm drowning in WIFOM. Would a newcomer mafia autovote on such an obvious wagon ? At that point the count was : 3 votes for Hier and quite the pressure building on him. I don't know where this train of thought is leading me, though. Tere's case on Hier is also mostly stuff we have said about Hier, be it rsoultin's case or the OMGUSy vote. I'm not sold on this, but I'm adding Tere on my lynch pool. I think rsoultin's case on Hier was good and Hier's vote for rsoultin was misguided. I think you're town, rsoultin, and I really hope it's the case, because if you're scum you're gonna be hard to catch :p This was the case I was mentioning. Maybe Elyas didn't get too far in his Tere case before the Shining switch, then gave up and looked at Tere fresh before this post. Still this case seems worse than the other two he made. | ||
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Tere you still up? | ||
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On February 19 2015 07:03 zlefin wrote: I've for the most part (aside from the couple posts mentioned a short while ago) liked Tere's responses of late, so I'm giving her a town point; here's where my point totals are now: Trfel 0/2 Shining 1/1 rsoultin 1/1 dead town N1 elyas -1/1 jarjar -1/3 tere -1/3 hier 0/2 dead town D1 silver -1/1 as a reminder, not all points area created equal, it simply means I at one time or another had a feel one way or another. Some feels are stronger than others, and I haven't yet figured out a system for letting points decay over time, or if I even should have points decay over time. I'm going to put this in another format: Townish: Shining Neutral: Trfel, Jarjar, tere Scummish: elyas, silver Question for everyone: In terms of the above 3 categories (townish, neutral, or scummish) how would you classify each other remaining player? If you could format it similarly to above, so it's easier to read and compare them, please do so. Jarjar, you seem to like data and tables, would having that data from each player be helpful to you, given that they're merely statements and not votes? Sorry zfelin, I can't pick up what your asking here lol Are you saying your datas and tables is helpful to me? It is helpful. My primary concern with it is with the data part (the part you put points to) is bolded, but we can talk about that after game if you like. Adding the table underneath that helps me understand a little bit which points are more important than others. What you have done since the beginning of N1 has definitely helped me understand what you are thinking. Thanks for that. You didn't ask for a read, but I do think you are more towny since I voted for you EOD in D1. You responded well to a couple people's criticism and scumreading which is good (doesn't help your alignment too much, but it does help town scumhunt by keeping their focus off of you for bad reasons) Some of your points have been pretty good (after D1), especially from a 1st timer perspective. I like what I'm seeing. You are also asking questions that promote discussion which is also good. Your scumreads make sense. | ||
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On February 19 2015 08:21 Tere wrote: Yes, but I need to go to bed soon. What do you need? (what I need from you is to reach out to us. I think I get where you are coming from but it's liking parsing Earth to Martian. If you can't speak your language to talk to me, pretend I'm your sister, that was very insightful, not perfect but a reasonable base to start from) I'll get a cup of coffee. You are my second strongest townread right now so what do you need from me? Your filter is ridicously long since last night lol which is definatley a good thing. Hard for scum to BS for an entire day lol I think you ended up on silver and shining. Silver hasn't posted yet, and you got in a piss argument. Do you see them as a possible scumteam? Two lurkers seems off for a scumteam, but it is possible. IF they can't be a scumteam, would you pick one over the other? I'm thinking silver over Shining, although both of their behaviors are similar to the games I have played with them in. Do you feel like you might be tunneling Shining? | ||
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On February 19 2015 08:48 Tere wrote: I think you've gotten muddled up, both those people have posted since then. Silver has posted a WOT that I don't feel is strong. The Shining has aggroed on me. If I am honest I wouldn't say either of them were lurkers, per se, I wouldn't say I'm tunnelling Shining right now. I haven't constructed a case yet - I am leaving that quite deliberately. As the person who entered Day 2 with the most scum reads, I shouldn't be generating cases right now. What I want to do now is sleep and give people room to post for 8-12 hours. I have opinions, but I would rather people came to independent conclusions. It's easy for scum to refute conclusions, less easy to drive their own agenda. Having said that, I'd love a loose read from you once you've combed through everything. You are a town read, but your thought processes are somewhat alien to me. I need to understand where you are coming from more I think. Night night They have posted, but I figured the posts they made changed your view on them lol Silver posted once and left and Shining is still tunneled on you so I figured your opinion of him prob got worse if anything else. I've got some work to do on here. I haven't given a thorough enough read on silver and she deserves one. | ||
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On February 17 2015 13:27 Silverarte wrote: Hmm, ok. So I'm going to start posting this stuff up as I get my thoughts in order (and hopefully without random copy/paste cut offs!) Let's see. I'll post up thoughts on Tere first! (Then Tere, I'll give you my thoughts for everyone since I did see you asked for that as well as Trfel. Also, by the way? HILARIOUS gifs! Loved coming back to those.) ALright, so back to the read on Tere here. -Jump on the bandwagon with Hier. Later, seems relatively unaffected considering all the effort placed here. Note, I'm not going to stare sideways too much for that one with Hier. That was a lynch gone bad, or so it felt to me with the way Hier was reacting. -Scumread list definitely is skewed to the most experienced players at the top (I did peek at your post Trfel before popping this up - darn you for being faster than me this round!), but I feel Zlefin may not be a bad read where she placed him. I think at this point, I'd really like to see what Tere has to say here. -I think my biggest issue where Tere is, really is in the communication with Hier, the scum reading and then yes, the counter wagon that was met with little to no attempts. But, this could be attributed to tunneling. I just think a lot of effort went into this here, with little attempts to other things she said. It does come off as contradicting itself. I agree with suspicion here, but I'm not sure Tere is an immediate lynch. Like I said, I'd really like to see what Tere has to say and go from there. I'm suspicious, but I some of the others catch my eye a bit more. I'm not all that unconvinced that you are on the wrong track, Trfel. Is this true? Do you actually have stronger scumreads? Is it just Zlefin or were you just saying that to make your say without leaving too much of a mark? Give that slight scumread and then lurk away? | ||
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Trf: Ya If I remember right I initially read Shining as one of my top two scum early game and switched it in the post you quoted. Let me know if you got questions while I dive. Might be a quick filter dive cuz its silver lolz | ||
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I think the most we are going to get from here is this last portion she posted lately. Definitely a lot of effort for Scumreading Tere, which is interesting because the general consensus at the time was slowly towning Tere. | ||
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Summary part I won't go through because it doesn't require much thought to summarize a person's filter. MOst of us have read and are reading Tere's filter anyways. "Inbetween this long awaited series of analysis and during it, reads on me are generally pleasant and wonderful. She's also prolific with her calls on "Don't judge me for what my actions are". Now, if we aren't judging based on actions and votes, what do we judge on?" I found this kind of weak lol I'm interpreting this to be a comment on Tere saying "don't claim based off this" quotes. If the comment was on her vote, the play was questionable and talked about on here already. I don't think Tere was trying to say to not look at her votes. "Now, her filter was rather prolific today which is great! Except...all of a sudden, there is a switch in tone on those votes. We go from hunting down other targets, to hunting down me based on Trfel's analysis. Rather than going with your initial votes and feels, you switched and trailed on with Trfel (which I was accused of doing)" I think this was original (Shining might have mentioned this point earlier, please correct me if I'm wrong lol). I don't think Tere did just focus on Silver based on Trfel's analysis though. Her primary scum read was Shining and she stuck with it. Her case on silver wasn't the best, so I could see her taking Trfel's point on Silver and looking at her more. It's what town should do in that situation. | ||
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On February 19 2015 15:24 Trfel wrote: In case some silly person decides to scumread The Shining for it, there is no possible way he would get away with that as mafia. Just an honest mistake. About the times changing, he is 100% right, that tricked me for a moment too. Your cool it happens. If you were right that would have been an important point lol | ||
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On February 19 2015 15:38 The Shining wrote: As am I. I hate to say it but diving/skimming everyone for their stances on Tere kind of took it out of me. Also I forgot Zlefin. Zlefin - Null on Tere, healthy suspicion but seems to be more set on pushing Ely or Silver. Speaking of Silver...you got me interested in the exercise I just did with Tere. As far as I see, Trfel is leaning scum or at least willing to lynch Silver. Tere dropped her to being scum with me. Ely and Zlef both see Silver as scummish, as per the lists they posted. JJB is calling her forgettable up until now, but points out that she did take the effort to scumread Tere, although he is incorrect in saying Tere's being accepted as a townread. Did you miss the part where we got at eachother? lol. Also, definitive answer for Silver, please. You leaning scum or town? I'm not done with the filter, sorry. Posting thoughts in segments lol I did see that. Are you still that suspicious of her? It seems like you are less. Trf seems less. | ||
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This is a fantastic tool, but it's an imperfect science and one we all pointed out to several of the others who joined us (Zlefin, etc). You, yourself have been very pleasant and forward, but very much pushing for others thoughts and ideas while holding back your own. I don't feel this is reaching, since this isn't the first time this has happened this game." This feels like Silver is searching for answers. Other town are doing this (Rso and Trf) and I think the reasoning seems relatively clear. Their strategy is working, it got Shining to say more and Silver to say more on their reads without the help of others. | ||
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Ya Tere, sorry about that lol | ||
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My final verdict of her case: It's good she's posting, but I can't tell if it is scumhunting or built as a defense to the people who are calling her out. I thought her case was relatively weak, did it really help town? Granted, this is her second game and she doesn't have a lot of time, but those are excuses. The rest of her filter seems like its just defending herself and non content posts. She did provide us that content post, so if you are scumreading her I would advise you to look at that over most of the rest of her filter. I had Tere at #2 in my lynch list before, but I'm putting Silver as more lynchable than Tere. I need to go through Elyas's filter to see if I think she is my top lynch target. Elyas hasn't left much of an impression on me today, but I have been less active today than yesterday and the day before lol | ||
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On February 19 2015 16:07 The Shining wrote: JJB, I'm slightly less suspicious of her in the sense that, post interaction, I realized I'd get nowhere pushing her. I still have my gut feeling and I've made it abundantly clear why she could possibly be scum, but I'm also weary of putting us into lylo with another mislynch and, to be fair, there are some town points and good posts in her filter to counteract my thoughts. In other words, I'm concentrating my efforts on finding the other scum. That will, imo, either give her away as the 2nd scum or exonerate her, depending on who flips. Once she interacts with me tomorrow, and of course post lynch flip, I'll have a more definitive answer. And I agree with the fact that holding back reads or thoughts sometimes forces others to put original thoughts into the thread. It is how we interpret those original thoughts that makes the strategy useful. And please, once you're done with Silver, a read either way would be helpful. Trfel WIFOM? It's a newbie game, we could have first time scummers or scum team could be the most experienced in the game. Do you really think it would be such a seamless bus that we wouldn't be able to pick up on who was least committed to the Silver scumread? You're either putting a lot of faith into the scum team or little to no faith in your/our scumhunting abilities as town. Also, am I wrong in thinking that with this much time left in the day, a counter wagon would be at least attempted before scum buses a partner in a game this small? Your right. She is one of the most inactive, so it will be easy for us to mislynch her if she is town lol solid point on that flips later could determine if she is actually scum. Most people seem to be following the same train of thought on here, which might make this harder later when we do see more flips. | ||
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I should read. I have an hour and a half right? | ||
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Trfel late defense is what i'd expect from scum Trfel with a chance to survive. I need to filter dive Trfel. I still have an hour right? | ||
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Shining you are really townreading Trf? Because of filter length? | ||
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On February 20 2015 07:53 Trfel wrote: What would you expect from Trfel who has been carrying town on his back for one and a half days, and now is getting lynched and there are townies who don't even listen to him? Here's a hint, it would look a whole lot like my posting for the last couple of hours. lol if your town you have every right to rant much harder than you already have. If you are scum though, you have played a very good scum game. Props on that one lol | ||
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On February 20 2015 07:54 zlefin wrote: you have about an hour jarjar; though I have to recommend a Silver vote over Trfel. According to Tere's theory, Trfel and Silver are the two scum. So if she's right, silver is scum. If she's wrong, there's viewpoints from other people that still point to Silver being scum. So Silver is more likely to be scum than Trfel, so better to vote Silver. You have a point here, but most people's cases on silver are because of the lurking which screams mislynch. Give me time. I might end up doubting my vote and killing the lurker anyways lol | ||
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Your EOD D1 play though. The more I look at your filter the more Tere's case stands out. | ||
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Trf: you are really good at scumhunting. Your play is different from your last scum game. Despite Tere's critiques, I could see you being town. Rso thought you were too, and she forgot about silver too. Maybe this is me avoiding feeling awful if Trf flips town, but Silver does look pretty awful. They were both in my top four, but I initially read Trf as more town. Trf you have officially fooled me if you are scum lol | ||
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Town: Shining, Zfelin Null: Elyas (only because of blue claim), Tere Scum: Silver over Trf | ||
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your point on silver is correct btw. I just lynched LM in my last game for being lurky and it turned out LM was town and we pretty much lost after that. Bad memory I guess. You try to not be biased but then you end up being biased. | ||
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Tere on the other hand went after Trf randomly after people started noticing Silver was in the game. | ||
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On February 20 2015 09:28 zlefin wrote: dangit shining, I was all set to be happy with this game and you had to go and say something like this to make me suspect you of being up to something. It's not a scum slip, because elyas is confirmed doctor. roles are revealed on death, so we know we've lost 2 VT and 1 mafia roleblocker. EVERYONE who's still alive in the game has posted after the lynch. Which means if Elyas is lying about being the doctor, then one of the other living players MUST be the blue, and all they have to do is counterclaim and town wins guaranteed by lynching them both. They've already had the opportunity to do so, and did not do so. Which makes Elyas confirmed blue (unless someone somehow didn't realize this, and is a blue, and hasn't counterclaimed yet, in which case, DO SO BEFORE THE END OF THE NIGHT). The only setup with roleblocker which we know to exist, AND a doctor, has no other blues. So therefore if ANY other player has ANY blue, elyas would have to be lying, which again is the counterclaim and town wins scenario. Yes this lol | ||
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On February 20 2015 08:00 The Shining wrote: It is more than filter length. We have an hour. I'll find some examples of things that made lean town on him, VS overall play. Did you ever come up with a defense for Trf? I can't seem to find it, and I believe I changed my vote with like 20 ish minutes left. I know I did change my vote anyways, but you look more suspicious in my eyes now that you didn't really ever defend your guy lol | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 20 2015 09:46 The Shining wrote: Wow. Town. Please don't be stupid and start running off with tin foil theories when OBVIOUS SCUM IS RIGHT IN FRONT OF US. Meh, JJB, I could've easily voted Trfel instead of Silver. I never changed my vote, either. I was more concerned with EoD and last minute shenanies then filter diving yet again my strongest townread. And I'm very well aware of that, Zlefin. If you look, at one point in my filter, I mention that if someone is reading the post and is anything other than Vigi, CLAIM IT. THIS IS BASICALLY MY WAY OF REITERATING THAT. Call it town paranoia but the only things confirmed to me are NK and lynch flips. I've seen bad plays in which a CC that could win town the game never happens and we lose because of it. Now if you look at my vote analysis and reaction to Ely's claim in general, I'm acting and pushing on the belief he is in fact the Doctor. For exactly the reasons you just posted. Got it. For some reason I thought you were set on Silver instead of Trf and wanted to help defend him more. My bad for misinterpreting the second part there lol | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Reading through Tere's filter, it seems like she brings up silverarte regularly in the early game. Her reads went from slight townread to slight scum to thinking silver was in the mafia team. I could see a scum partner doing this, given the lack of posts from silver in the game. Question in her defense: Do you think silver in her mainish and really only scumread of the game, would go after her mafia partner? If she was struggling to make reads because she mafia, I could see it. But I wouldn't think that would be the smartest strategy for the mafia team there, when I believe the votes were still relatively split. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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Tere I hope you play again. Your posts made me laugh a lot lol I"m pretty sure nobody else is ever gonna talk about their ladyboner lol You made this game that much better! I hope I see you again on here! Ely great job on your first game on here. If you want to see a joke, go look at my first game! You did a great job concerning the limited time you had on here and I hope to see you again as well! Trf, your case is a real slam dunk. Zach Lavine style. I'll go point out the points I liked the most lol | ||
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I honestly don't want to go to far into this because I want Tere to come back and play more games. You do deserve to know what points are the most important to defend yourself though. The point that struck home for me the most was Tere's switch on Trf when Silver was looking worse and worse. In Tere's reads, she clearly has Silver as very scummy and part of the mafia team with Trf. I think town Tere would have gone after Silver first, while telling people to look at Trf's filter and make her case on Trf the next day. Instead, she goes after a mostly townread (by everyone I believe) Trf with her case while the other scum is literally at the chopping block. The mafia Tere is much more likely to try to go after Trf to save silver for another round, while at the same time taking down one of the more active towns. Shining, I think your idea is a good one. We have time to relook at things just in case Tere/Palmar is town. I'm really struggling to do this because Tere looks so mafia right now, but I put down my thoughts. Trf has been making most of the strongest cases in this game, which really strengthens the argument that he is town. I think Tere's case showed how it might be possible that he is mafia, but his last mafia game is nothing compared to this one if he actually is mafia. He's been carrying the team on this game. I have been mostly townreading you throughout this game, and looking back through your filter, it's hard for me to see you being the mafia. If you were mafia, the activity you showed in Day1 to your rant is drastically different from your rant-now which would definitely help your end game which poses a red flag? The lack of people really scumreading you late game could also be a red flag. But I definitely believe your reasoning behind your activity change and your play throughout the game has been towny to me. Zlefin appears towny since D1. Looking back through his Day1 filter, I can see how town zlefin played D1 as well. I guess my only concern here would be that nobody has scumread him since D1 really (besides silver I guess). Most people have kind of left him alone. As a new player, you would think mafia would look at him. But he has looked very towny since D1 I believe. As far as carrying town, I think he has done the least out of the three (besides me) yet still appears very towny, so I think I would consider him very suspicious after a relook if Tere/Palmar actually turns town. I could see myself being mafia if I was any of yall lol I always get voted for in these games because of my play and I haven't yet. I had an outlier D1. I waffled on Trf D2. A lot of my reads were not original. My voting analysis has me as primary suspect after day 1 and still suspicious play in D2. And yet I haven't been scumread much lol | ||
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1. This is confusing coming from you about my previous games. You've been in all my previous games. I don't have a "meta scum game". 2. You calling my Day 1 reads weak is also confusing coming from you. YOUVE BEEN IN ALL MY PREVIOUS GAMES. Think of a read I had that was actually strong in your opinion. 3. This is sappy, be warned. I defended Hier mostly because I empathized with him. He came out with a strategy that say wasn't the best but it was different. He obviously was trying. Everyone comes down on him and makes him feel like trash. At one point I could have sworn you guys were going to get him to quit. And don't even think that he wouldn't, you guys already got two others to quit. In my first game on here, IN A NEWBIE GAME, you guys literally made me feel like crap. 4. In some places in your case, you insult my intelligence. In others, you make act like I can actually have a decent strategy. Please pick one. 5. I have played with you for 3 games. I've seen you constantly scumread anyone that scumreads you, especially day one. Granted, you can change your behavior, but that is why I defended you. 6. YOU'VE BEEN IN ALL MY GAMES! I ALWAYS CALL MY READS CRAP! Do you just ignore me in all my games? I just don't get it. I'm sure you have a great case that you will spend hours on, and I'm glad you are scumhunting that much. But please think objectively. Stop trying to sell your case and post what you actually think about it. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 22 2015 13:46 Trfel wrote: Jarjarbinks, good to see you here. Care to chat for a bit? I'm going to assume that the answer is yes. How much online mafia experience do you have? Have you played on sites other than TL? Jarjarbinks, please take note of two things. First, it's only natural to try to sell a case when you make it. If it's what you believe, you are going to argue for it as hard as you can, and portray it to be convincing as possible (of course it still must be 100% true, but you want to try and sell it at the same time). I don't know if I explained that very well, if you don't understand, I can try to explain it better. Second, it's extremely hard to remember how everyone played in every game, especially at the level necessary to make solid meta reads like that. This isn't an indication of The Shining being lazy, insulting, ignoring you, or anything like that, it's simply natural. It would be helpful if you provided some quotes from previous games where you said that your reads are bad, though. I left and was pissed lol I can go back and find where I call my reads crap in past games. This is my 3rd game on here. I played a kinda ish game on starkingdoms with shining, but everyone was pretty much inactive. You have been in all of my games too besides that starkingdom one. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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If you look at my activity, you would notice there is a large portion where I am gone during the week. I usually get back an hour or 2 before EOD. If you look back you can see this is relatively obvious lol Yes I made a joke there. You scumming me for that makes me feel like you are selling your case instead of being objective. You have to sell your case, but if you scum me for something weak or wrong expect people to see that. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 22 2015 23:38 Palmar wrote: Do you still think I am mafia jjb? Idk if your play really changes my view on you so far. It looks like you are trying to create doubt to get people to not lynch you. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 22 2015 15:30 Trfel wrote: Jarjarbinks, one more question. At the end of Day 2, you initially voted for me, and then you changed your vote to Silverarte. I read your explanation at the time, but while I am obviously happy with your decision, I'm trying to understand your thought process here. Is there anything more you can possibly add about this? The Shining, no guarantees, but I'll try to stay up. Day 3 song: + Show Spoiler + https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh3Kk5tZSmo Because town needs to be logical. I'll try. Obviously I look awful for waffling there lol When I first got on, I was extremely surprised you had so many votes on you via your play. Tere's first case on you wasn't great when I was reading through, but her second case was better. After initially reading it, there were a lot of times where I could see where she was coming from. Your defense to her posts didn't help too much, because in our last game where you were scum, you attempted to hardcore defend yourself after being copread by LS. Hence the initial vote. I felt you definitely deserved analyzing because I initially read you as townish (with just one red flag in that EOD D1) and I should base my reads on you through my own eyes. I went back through your complete filter and I didn't feel as confident about lynching you as before. Honestly, tone reads aren't my forte, and you definitely had some fantastic analysis in there. People were sheeping your reads rather than the other way around for the most part. This is why I changed my vote. Zlefin's note that silver was also in Tere's case had also caused me to be less confident in Trf's vote. When he said that I was still going through Trf's filter and I didn't want to switch solely because of that because Silver could have been an easy mislynch do to her lack of thread presence. As to Shining's note that I kept switching at the end. I didn't unvote Trf. Somebody told me I didn't, hence the garbage in the vote thread. You who was constantly reading my case would know that and this goes to show that you are still reaching to sell your case rather than being honest. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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Silver was the last one of my "top four" at N1. That is why I kept talking about how I needed to go through her stuff. I admit, reading my post on silver does leave a lot to be desired. I think my post was actually rather confusing. It was meant to all be scumreading Silver, but I added a lot of caveats. I tend to play devil's advocate when I make my reads lol If I need to clarify, my conclusion at the end was "I think silver looks really scummy, I need to look at Ely again before I move silver up to my top scum person" I have seen mafia randomly post a JJB is probably town post before. Trf did it many times in our last game which you were apart of and on his scum team. Silver is not Trf, but I could see Silver doing this. While I wasn't voted for on here, I think most people were scumreading me throughout D1 and D2, just not to the extreme that I am used to seeing. The only people that thought I was towny was Tere and Rso (who literally always defends me and gives me BOD). | ||
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You can spin my switch on them however you like, but I explained why I switched. | ||
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D3 You can spin that major point by Trf to make me look scum. That is fine. I agree, I can be made to look scum that way. I still think that point was a major aspect of his case. As for my cases on you guys: I still think you guys are freaking town. Yes I was trying to go back and see who I would be most suspicious of post flip. I was most suspicious of zlefin with you at #2. Yes I add caveats to my arguments, but that's how I make arguments. I literally do the opposite of what you do. I try to look at everything and play devil's advocate. As for the rest of your argument, I'VE PLAYED THIS GAME WITH YOU 3 TIMES. It really bothers me that people get scummed for making jokes. Like it really does lol EVERY FREAKING GAME. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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The reason I'm referring to meta with you is because we have played in these games together. You have not seen scum JarJar so you cannot be sure how I will act. However, referring to my behavior as 100% scum when you have seen me do the exact same thing before multiple times is flat out wrong. Worst case scenario it should be seen as around 25% or the odds that I RNG'd scum. My problem with it is that you take it to 100% scum, hence selling your case and not being honest. | ||
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On February 23 2015 00:46 Palmar wrote: why would a townie not be honest in his case on you jjb? lol in my rage I have definitely thought of that Reasons for Shining to scum me this hard: 1: Paranoid town looking for someone else to scum when the person is lying right in front of them. 2: Is scum and is preparing the next target. 3. Has an ego and wants his case to be better than Trf's 4. Actually thinks I'm scum. Sadly, I think 1,3, and 4 are legitimate reasons for him doing this lol Now the whole adding details he knows is wrong? #1: Could still be a thing here, maybe he is worried we are all set in our ways and thinks this is the only way to change our votes. These details could sway say zlefin, but Trf? I don't think so. Granted I know myself more than Trf, but he's been in all my games as well. #3: Doesn't affect it, if no one catches these details his case looks stronger and he can try to earn MVP award. #4: I'm copying and pasting from #1 "These details could sway say zlefin, but Trf? I don't think so. Granted I know myself more than Trf, but he's been in all my games as well." | ||
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jarjarbinks
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?user=jarjarbinks I would post specific quotes but there's so many to choose from. Shining was alive the entire time and I believed killed me EOD D3 to lose the game. He obviously was looking through my filter because he was town as well. Trf not so much. Died D1. I know posting meta is super not cool but I think this helps my defense lol | ||
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/475036-student-mafia-v?user=jarjarbinks I'm doing the same things (altho I think I called myself stupid less on this one), the beginning was pretty hilarious actually if you want to discuss it after game that's cool. If it helps you understand me, my strategy before the game even started was to ask more questions and to make less jokes to appear more town lol If I was you trying to judge me based on those games: 1. My filter is longer here. 2. I've tried to call myself stupid less. 3. Proportionally I've made less jokes for some odd reason lol If you would like to ask me about these be my guest. If not, look at my actions. I was an outlier D1. I waffled on Trf on D2. You can make a case on my reads saying that I should have improved from my last games. | ||
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On February 23 2015 03:03 Trfel wrote: I have a few minutes. But what the heck is this? That defense was a complete and total joke. I was obviously mafia, I was obviously getting lynched, I was just trying to cause confusion. That was my point? lol Based on your defense (or confusion spreading, sorry if that's what it was), I could see you making a much bigger defense here since you were in a better position. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 23 2015 07:45 Palmar wrote: jarjar who is the mafia tomorrow? lol there won't be a tomorrow! You are showing that you are trying, which draws confusion. After some analysis you go ahead and sheep shining's read because it is your only way out from getting lynched. And don't even think I missed that feel question from you before you decided to finally vote for me. You were definitely checking to see if I thought about voting shining, so you can change the way you are making your reads. | ||
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Shining, I know I'm in your tunnel vision. Please spend your time on other guys too instead of just me. What if your reads on me are wrong? | ||
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My list as of now (Highest are town and lowest are scum): 1. Trf 2. Shining 3. JJB 4. Zlef I'm hoping I find something later that either changes this, or makes me more confident in pizking Zlef. Zlef, where did you get your percents from? | ||
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jarjarbinks
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Did you give up on your table? You stopped adding points somewhere around the end of D2 and haven't really added or subtracted points since then. Did you decide its not worth it? Did you decide %'s are a better way to go? | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 24 2015 07:47 zlefin wrote: I think it was a useful tool for early on, to help organize my thoughts, but it's not necessary anymore as there's few enough people to track it in my head fine. I can see that. I find it a little suspicious that you end up stopping the table idea around the same time it appears that you are trying less, but your explanation does make sense. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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Final Verdict: The most town looking to least based on votes is shown below. I admit I spinned zlefin's posts because I was least sure of them. In all honesty I would probably switch Trf and Zlef here but I'm trying to not be biased. Shining- Switches his votes the most which shows flexibility. He often had his votes in the upper half of the voting pool which shows that he isn't waiting around to see the temperature of the thread. Zlef- Probably the hardest to analyze vote wise. His first vote is for survival which is null, His D3 vote for Tere/Palmer makes him look good, but everyone had pretty much decided to lynch Tere/Palmar anyways. D2 vote was just early enough to be in the top half. Trfel- D1 vote hurt him, while D2 voting helped him. D3 voting hurt him where I think it should have helped. I think he was more bent on Tere than the rest of us. Me- outlier D1 which is bad. bottom half of the votes D2 which is bad. I also dinged myself for D3. Palmar voted for me and is dead (although with limited data Palmar's dead votes don't bear much weight) Reads analysis to come after N3. I'm going to guess I won't be killed tonight because I'm prime for mislynch bait. | ||
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Honestly I think both NK wifom and lych WIFOM are worth more than people credit for. I don't think it's 50/50. Although some people generally have better reads than others. With no real vet exp on Shining, I would have to think that there's a better chance that he was killed for his reads than to draw confusion. That super long case on me sure has me looking awful here lol | ||
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On February 24 2015 10:47 Trfel wrote: Is there a case that I need to defend myself against? lol no but say if mafia zlef makes a case on you that you decide not to defend against that could sway my view on you and your cases | ||
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jarjarbinks
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I can scream WIFOM, or IVE BEEN FRAMED; but the simple analysis is that I look like scum because of this kill. If I were you I would have jumped on this. Granted I don't really know which one of you framed me. You "set your trap" by talking to Shining about WIFOM. Zlefin is saying he knew but was going along with it so "mafiajjb" wouldn't catch it. It's your call. I would think it would be a matter of how intelligent you think I am. Do you think a guy who uses vote analysis to find mafia would make himself look awful in vote analysis? | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I started with zlef. I went through his filter looking for a few things: 1. Times he scumread somebody 2. Times he townread somebody 3. Times he defended himself against somebody 4. Times he didn't specifically townread somebody but his post makes them "appear" more towny 5. Times he didn't specifically scumread somebody but his post makes them "appear" more scummy or draws suspicion or "bad attention" on them 6. He outrights tells people to lynch someone 7. He outright tells people that the person is 100% town (most of the time this should be just if someone claims) I calculated all of these. Funny enough, I found exactly 100 times zlef did one of the above in this game. To compare how he reads strong townreads and strong scumreads as well as how he treated silver in comparison to others. I actually found some interesting things. There are many flaws to this analysis: 1. It's new. Never used it before. I don't have histories to compare you to. I have to compare you to each other. 2. It's flawed. I'm a human and my interpretation of what happens in a post isn't 100% accurate. I'd like to think I can follow a thread, but I can make mistakes. 3. This is hard to justify. Without showing you my spreadsheet its hard for me to justify how I got my numbers. I'm hoping that something I note makes you go back, check, and say hey maybe he's on to something. 4. You have to trust me that I am being honest. Hard to do if you are the other town and there is a very high likelihood you say you don't if you are mafia. 5. Everyone might look bad in this. My argument against this is I'm not expecting you to look good. Just better than the other guy if you are the actual town. If you want my initial opinion? Here it is. I think zlef is mafia. Is that because I filter dived him all night? Possibly. I don't think its fair to zlef for me to make an initial conclusion right now though because I haven't gone through trf's 5000 pages of filter. I think I'm going to be staying up late tomorrow xD | ||
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Warnings before I post my notes: 1. I generally don't write much. My writing on here is actually pretty good in my opinion. I often throw lols everywhere and stuff. If I made a writing error I'M SORRY lol 2. I talk about townread/scumreading proportions. It is natural I would think for most people to scum others over town them. I guess it depends on personality (another thing you can throw at me for this analysis), but you would think you would be more suspicious of others considering there's more people to be suspicious of. Zlef's avg was 2.4 meaning that he scummed people 2.4 times for every time he towned someone. 3. I consider making a post that draws suspicion/puts them in a bad light as scumming. Same with saying something like "i don't see how that is a scumteam" with the person on it for towning. Saying THIS GUY SHOULD BE LYNCHED is in a different category. 4. Ask me questions about something you don't understand. You see into my thinking and better understand my case. 5. It isn't fair to be like Zlef is super bad because of my case yet. Trf could look bad due to this analysis too, I don't know yet. I'm hoping I have a solid conclusion tomorrow. Honestly guys I think this could be golden, for this game and for my games in the future. I doubt anyone else will but I do lolz | ||
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jarjarbinks
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General Play: Tends to scumread 2.4 times more than townread and 1.6 times more than he defends himself. Told people or referred people to Lynching about 1.5-1.6 times per voting phase. Including defending himself against others, he has a total of 100 reads on people. People: Top people that he made reads on (proportionally per phase) were Hier, then silver, Tere and Rso. People he made the least reads (per phase mind you) the least were Ely and Shining. He has equal reads on both me and Trf, which I found interesting. I also found it interesting that the two least were Ely and Shining considering that Ely was his top scumread until the claim on D2 and Shining he called the most towny of us all. Things that bothered me: 1. He proportionally towned/scummed Rso and Hier. One whom (at least I considered) his top townread D1/N1 and the other guy he found the most likely to be scum D1. He equally towned/scummed them (shows a 1.0 ratio which is the lowest in my analysis) 2. On the opposite end of the spectrum, he does the exact same thing with Shining/Trf. Just recently, he considered Trf and Shining as his most towny and most scummy guy. Proportionally, he scummed them 4-4.5 times more than towned them. 3. Silver is right in the middle of the spectrum. (low is 1 and high is 4.5). If you were wondering her spot was 2.33. This is similar to another number. 2.4 in my first sentence. His average amount of times he scumreads compared to townreads. This bothers me because silver is the only confirmed scum and you could make the argument that Zlef’s playstyle in this game has been a “cover” for silver. He did say he wanted to lynch Silver a lot. People focus on that especially during bus time (if zlef is actually mafia), but his other scumreads tell an entirely different tale. 4. Elyas was his top scumread D2 yet he made two scumreads on the guy. Ely didn’t post a lot but let’s put this in perspective. He scumread silver 7 times and said he wanted to lynch her 3 times. For the more scummier of the two in his mind (before Ely doc claimed of course) he wanted to lynch him once and scumread him 3 times. I’m pretty sure both of their filters are similar in length. | ||
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On February 24 2015 12:56 Trfel wrote: Hm.... I'm skeptical. To start, I've always used the philosophy that people are town until they prove otherwise, while most people use the philosophy that most people are suspect until proved otherwise. I mean, I obviously don't accept people as town right away, but I give them the benefit of the doubt until they do something to not deserve it any more, if that makes sense? I'm interested to see what you come up with, but my hypothesis is that it is too prone to errors. This is fair lol I don't know how well it will work, and I think it will work better when I compare you in this game to you in the next one. I'm hoping it works here. | ||
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#3 was my favorite point on my case lol If I have time after my case on you I will try to help you understand what I'm saying I probably wasn't clear enough in my analysis. | ||
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D1: Opening was what openings are, mostly garbage lol He started scumhunting and his EBWOPing seemed actually relatively towny to me considering his past games (more behavior thing I saw in our first game that he also got scummed on like you did to him D1). D2: He didn't seem too active until Tere pissed him off. Started playing. I thought most of his posts seemed towny. D3: In hindsight, I think his desire to desperately find a counterwagon was good for town. I don't exactly like how he went on me, and I was super pissed about how he was tonereading some of my posts considering that he's been going through my filters for at least 2 games (not including his mafia game), but I didn't really waver on switching my vote at all. I remember having 4 reasons why he was scumming me, and I overall figured he was either trying to one up your case on Tere or seriously wanted to lynch me. It made much more sense to wait to throw that case on my in lylo (assuming the Tere/Palmer lynch still went through) if he was actually scum. Voting analysis had him as the most towny of us four. I'm not going to do a read analysis on him, they take ten years lol | ||
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jarjarbinks
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The moment probably wasn't too brief honestly. His case was pretty long and I was super pissed about some parts of it. Some parts of were decent, but all the tonereads were like he was looking at a completely new person. I would think he would know me better than that since we've played together about as long as I've played with anyone. While I knew that, you guys didn't know it as much. It seemed like he was using that to his advantage in order to get you guys to mislynch me or at least be suspicious of me instead. He could be town trying desperately to get you guys to look at me or he could be scum taking advantage to prepare for the next mislynch. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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Can you go through each player and tell me where you stood on them? Like say I though Rso was top town D1 and Hier was top scum D1. I know Rso's been a super strong townread for you D1 but some of the others I'm not so sure on. I would've said the Shining, but it looks like you didn't really town him until D2ish. Was there anyone else you were relatively clear about? I don't think you ever really thought Tere was ever that towny, did you consider her the most scummy in this game? | ||
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My initial concern was that Shining came in and scummed you for your opening and then left for a while. Didn't leave a good taste in my mouth. Your opening wasn't really that surprising to me at all lol he made later posts which I found much more towny when going through his filter, but I think my suspicions were more on the opening. I wasn't too confident in him being my #2 at the time so I read through his filter. Caused me to backtrack. | ||
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On February 25 2015 09:07 Trfel wrote: Do you mean, you want a summary of how my reads developed over the course of the entire game?!?! o.O Hmm not exactly. Summaries aren't what I really want. More like categories of how confident you found them in comparison to others. Like I would have Tere hammered down as your strongest scumread and Rso as your strongest. Do two other get close to these categories? Or were you relatively torn about the others? How about this. I think you were considering Shining very towny end game. If I compared it to your thoughts about Rso, would you have considered your stance on them to be relatively similar? | ||
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Zlef if you are around, please try to answer what Trf did about categories. I think I can generally make solid conclusions here, but I am prone to mistakes. Not giving you the opportunity to alleviate a mistake of mine would be biased and unfair. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
General Play: Tends to scumread the average person about 3.7 times compared to townreading them and about 3.4 times more than he defends himself. He made a total of 319 reads on people. People: Top people he made reads on (proportionally per phase) 1. Hier 2. Tere 3. Rso 4. Silver 5. Shining 6. JJB 7. Ely 8. Zlef The most interesting thing here is that his top two townreads and his scumread are all smack dab in the middle. His Scum/Townread Ratio: 1. Silver (19) 2. Tere (4.71) 3. Zlef (2) 4. Hier (1.33) 5. JJB (.95) 6. Ely (.83) 7. Rso (.6) 8. Shining (.52) Things that Bother Me (I admit this is weak, I’m struggling here): 1. Elyas was a top town read for him, yet he barely had to defend himself against Ely. He also made the second least amount of reads on him. Ely did turn doc, so he was right, but should he have been SO right? 2. Why does his read analysis look so good when the vote analysis says otherwise? 3. You could make a case about him hammering Silver. It’s beyond weak but it’s still a case you could make for bussing. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
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jarjarbinks
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On February 25 2015 12:29 Trfel wrote: I didn't have ElyAs at a strong townread until he claimed. It would have been a weak townread until then. Did you have Shining/Tere as a higher Townread in D2 around the time Tere made her case on you? | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Number of reads I had on Zlefin was 100. The way I counted reads was a little primitive. Later, I put the reads in categories to make a better analysis. Instead of summing up all the categories, I instead counted all the reads. I counted 100. Now after 1 day, I have 114 reads after summing up the categories instead. Nothing really changed, as most of these reads are on me and Trf, but I think I miscounted the 100. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I will move on to a conclusion, but I think just looking at the cases makes my conclusion pretty obvious lol | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
General Play: Tends to scumread the average person about 2.35 times compared to townreading them and about 1.5 times more than he defends himself. He made a total of 114 reads on people. People: Top people he made reads on (proportionally per phase) 1. Hier 2. Silver 3. JJB 4. Tere 5. Trf 6. Rso 7. Shining 8. Ely I find many things interesting about this. First, look at the top four people, all the lynched people. Also, look at the bottom. His top scumread (at the time before his flip) and townread (at the time before his flip) are AT THE BOTTOM. His Scum/Townread Ratio: 1. Shining (4) 2. Trf (3.33) 3. Tere (3) 4. Ely (3) 5. Silver (2.33) 6. Me (1.14) 7. Rso (1) 8. Hier (1) Things that Bother Me (I feel this is much stronger): 1. I generally considered Hier to be on zlefin’s “top scum” list D1 with Rso on his “top town” list D1. Why did he read them the same way? 2. Why would Ely be his top scumread when he made the least amount of reads (per phase) on him? I know Ely wasn’t an active player, but still. 3. Silver was at about the average for the Scum/Townread Ratio, despite being his #2 target for making reads. Which means that he talked about silver a lot, but didn’t really lean to far one way or another (compared to average) on making silver look bad. If I could bold this point I would. It looks like he is making sure he is talking about silver enough, but not scumming her more than he should. Yet he bussed the vote. 4. His top four people (mentioned above) are all guys he wants to lynch. This shows that he isn’t really providing too many reads outside what he absolutely has to. A prime example to follow this up is Day 3 with killing Tere/Palmer. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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jarjarbinks
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jarjarbinks
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On February 25 2015 13:02 Trfel wrote: Yes to both. I need to go to sleep, sorry. I'll take another look at what you come up with tomorrow. That is fine, I'm crashing when I finish. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Reasons for voting zlef: 1. As posted in my cases above, my read analysis puts zlef in a very incriminating light. 2. Also posted above, Trf looks beyond fantastic as town. He said in his filter that he could write books about why he's so town. My analysis agrees with that (even though my vote analysis doesn't). 3. I honestly don't think Trf could look this good with 319 reads. Call me a unbeliever of Trf's scum game, but it would be hard to look this good with 319 reads. Possible Concerns with My Analysis: 1. Zlef is less experienced than Trf, meaning he should look more incriminating. Factoring this in is hard, but I do not believe that this makes up for HOW MUCH worse he looks than Trf. 2. This analysis is new. I am bound to make it better by factoring things in, and help alleviate mistakes that could have been caused in this analysis. However, right now I think this thing is beyond golden. Granted if Trf flips scum, this analysis is complete garbage, but I'm really don't think he flips scum here. Look out Trf. If you truly are scum and you roll scum next game I play with you, you are in deep trouble lol 3. Zlef did look better in my vote analysis. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On February 25 2015 13:02 Trfel wrote: Yes to both. I need to go to sleep, sorry. I'll take another look at what you come up with tomorrow. While I could make a case stating why it's hard for me to believe that you had Tere in a higher light, I will let that one go for now. Let's just say I could see why Tere would say that you were killing her ladyboner lol I could see Shining higher than Ely at the time though. If you could defend my point about you looking bad voting analysis wise, that would greatly help me. While my voting analysis hasn't worked in any of my games so far, I would like to think it does mean something and am still using it in this game to help weigh you and zlef. Answer me this: Why does my voting analysis make you look worse than zlef (I explain it in my filter end of N3)? What kind of case could you make that proves that my voting analysis does not portray you accurately in this game? | ||
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jarjarbinks
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jarjarbinks
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I'm assuming I should answer your questions over comment on your case first? | ||
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jarjarbinks
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If you truly believed I was the scummiest D1 then my first point might not be valid. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
That is why I didn't bank too many of my points on just reads, I think the ratio matters more with the data I have. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On February 25 2015 23:59 Trfel wrote: Jarjarbinks, some questions for you. Why is the case that I bused Silverarte weak? Why does my read analysis look good? Just because of the large number of reads? My usage of my vote is poor. I haven't been very good at using my vote to pressure, so I mostly just wait until I'm sure who I want to lynch and vote for them then. Zlefin, in Night 3 you listed the percentages for each player being scum. With Palmar dead, I have the highest remaining percentage. Why did you not vote for me? On the first question, where are you referring to? If it was what I posted in my read analysis, then I was unclear. If it is somewhere else you'll have to remind me where I said that. Your read analysis is better than I would expect out of a normal person. Especially someone that hasn't played THAT many games. Like your a vet, but not close to vet status. The first one off of the top of my head is that your top two scumreads are the two girls that you scumread the most and townread the least. I'll use Tere as an example. In your 98 reads on Tere (including defenses), you scumread her 66 times and towned her 14 times. That is something you would expect from a person who tunneled so hard on Tere to get her lynched. Granted it was a mislynch, but your actions followed your reads. There is no deception or confusion here. Let me know if this doesn't make sense and I'll try to explain it better. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
Plus in my reads, some people like to make it seem like theyre saying someone is null but they really are just shedding light on something they think is suspicious Things like that I can see this way. You did that to Tere a lot lol Plus you can look at other things as well. Like my point on Zlefin on the number of reads, that could show lack of effort while attempting to appear like you are making an effort. It definitely isn't perfect right now, and could use a tweak or two; but I need to see if the general concept actually works. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On February 26 2015 08:06 Trfel wrote: This is what I refer to when I ask why the case on me busing Silverarte is weak. Almost all of your reads on Silver (pretty much) are scumming her. You had good reason to, but if you are mafia and think your scumbuddy is vulnerable to getting lynched soon, then you might think that scumming her often and early is a good strategy farther down the road. Honestly I felt that this point is weak, but possible. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On February 25 2015 20:59 zlefin wrote: Ok, I think I found the question: it's about how my views varied over the course of the game? in general I'd think the history of the points I posted would serve better than my memory for that (it's the ratios that matter most). since night 2 my views have changed very little, just a mild boost to you jjb, that put you scummier than trfel (by a slight margin) If you want more details than the history of the point system provides, I'll be on today to answer it. Zlef, do you understand my third point? That was my strongest one in my opinion. Do you have a decent defense against it? | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On February 26 2015 08:17 Trfel wrote: Can you convince me that you are town? Can you convince me that you are scum? I wish my play would convince you I was town. I thought I played better in this game than my other two, although that is a pretty low hurdle lol I don't know if my play will ever convince people I'm town. I think I've had some decent reads and some not so decent ones. You could spin my game to be convinced I was scum. Voting analysis looks bad, Shining's death looks bad. I don't make the best cases or have the best reads. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 26 2015 08:21 Trfel wrote: Oh, and just to clarify, are you accusing me of being sexist? Because if you are....... lolz Totes sexist. They all be hatin | ||
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jarjarbinks
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IM A MAN | ||
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jarjarbinks
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you just don't stop lol | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 26 2015 08:33 Trfel wrote: Oh hush XD I don't even know what to say any more, haha..... I was nice to rsoultin, wasn't I? Lol i'm not sure if that's a complement or not lol | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On February 26 2015 08:34 Trfel wrote: If I'm going to lose the game for town, at least I can laugh while doing it, right? If town wins or loses, this game has been my favorite of the three. I hope you had some fun, even if this part sucks. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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jarjarbinks
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jarjarbinks
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I'm pretty confident in it, I'm not going to lie. Might need some work on the selling part though, obviously. Dark Knight is pretty good, one of my favorites. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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jarjarbinks
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but as mafia you would have to do that in order to bus I could be wrong, but I don't think I am | ||
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jarjarbinks
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On February 26 2015 09:02 Trfel wrote: And I still don't know why. Well played, jarjarbinks. Maybe someday I will learn how to play this game XD Sadly it was real. I actually believe in it a tad lol But I had no baseline, so I can't really make much of it. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
You guys did really well. Zlef, you were 20 billion times better than my first game. | ||
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jarjarbinks
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I honestly felt so bad at the thought of lynching you xD | ||
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jarjarbinks
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I didn't think you were a blue role, just someone who if was roleblocked couldn't make as much out of it I can't exactly make reads in this game lol | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
On February 26 2015 09:11 Trfel wrote: I was sure that if you were scum, that was exactly what happened. It's so obvious. Come in, see close lynch, throw down vote, go to scum QT, get told to bus. But if you wanted to bus you should have just done it the first time, I didn't think you would actually try to get the mislynch and then back off...... I know it's a terrible excuse, but I really think my lack of experience destroyed me in this one. I've never played more than one day of a mafia game before (I was killed N2 in Carol, but I afk'd day 1). So I really don't know about night kill analysis, voting analysis, things like that. Ways to get ACTUAL reads other than silly weak Day 1 things. I thought that the rsoultin night kill was explained enough with the Silverarte flip, and as being the main cause of discussion. They were actually against the bus xD Silver, sorry again I screwed you. Still feel like poop. | ||
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
welp, I guess I wasted my only chance to see that work on a newbie game xD I'm totally going to get lynched all the time now. | ||
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