Newbie Mini Mafia LXI - Page 2

On February 15 2015 15:17 jarjarbinks wrote:


Nope, totally 5th wheeled a weird after church double date thing tho. I should prob get one of those date things.

LOL just make sure you don't actually read all of the rules first

On February 15 2015 15:26 jarjarbinks wrote:


Trf's opening: slightly less crazy than last game I played with him in. No random vote the guy who might be inactive play. Wants to promote discussion. I could go either way cuz he "tried" to do that as scum.

Shining- not much reaction there. What i'd typically expect I guess?

You- I expect you to do what you do every game. You did it...lol

Everyone else: I'm guessing they are gone for valentine's. I'd get worried if people aren't chiming in when I wake up tomorrow.

On February 15 2015 15:22 Trfel wrote:

From my (limited) understanding of RNG lynch, the point isn't necessarily to actually lynch the target, but to see how people react to the push.

On February 16 2015 00:58 jarjarbinks wrote:
I actually liked the plan just because it was different and promoted discussion. I think it could also produce some insight on who mafia kills at night too. Say if mafia kills the next guy in the link, you might take away that mafia isn't worried about being on the chop block soon. Plus people's one time ability is something real, like votes, in comparison to words. If I use my one-time ability on rsoultin, it means a lot more than me defending her in discussion.

I guess I could see either mafia or strong town reads be more willing to break the cycle over more quiet town. They are probably going to lead the vote wagons and the discussions anyways?

On February 16 2015 01:42 Hier wrote:

Nobody is forcing you to use your switch on a target you aren't sure of.

I am sure some people will have a problem with a specific person being "auto-lynched", in which case anyone is free to save that person by using up their switch ability, allowing for a standard vote we will see on Day 1. Or you can convince someone else to do it, someone who isn't in danger of being dragged into a lynch.

On February 16 2015 02:24 Trfel wrote:
I guess I feel that the RNG lynch has all of the positives of the Bridges method, but without many of the obvious downsides, and is this a superior method. And I have already discussed why I feel that standard, critical analysis is the best method.

By making everything automated, players would be less likely to say things or analyze the game, since it isn't necessary, and things will keep going on their own. This means that when it actually is time to vote for a lynch as normal, town has basically nothing to work with, even if it is LYLO.

In addition, this method gives mafia perfect information as to the lynch order, and without incentive to post, they should have no trouble surviving a few mislynches and winning the game.

On February 16 2015 03:14 jarjarbinks wrote:
Ya I went back through it, and it definitely has mafia in favor (I was wrong on the 47%, its 33% mafia doesn't need to make a switch and still wins without losing a mafia member) If I was mafia, I would definitely roll the dice on any automated lynch strategy.
My spreadsheet doesn't take into account people's reads though. Say rsoultin (almost always townread by everyone in the game every game) is on the chop block, I'm pretty sure someone would use their switch on her. If she's mafia, for obvious reasons. If she's town, then because everyone thinks she's town and knows that it is a mistake.
That goes right back to mafia have perfect information over town not having it. If we used the bridge strategy, our only real hope would be to:
1. figure out how mafia would NK based on that strategy, which looks very similar to WIFOM.
2. Heavily analyze ANY switch that is made. It should mean a lot for someone to use their 1 free pass to make the switch. Which also might seem a little WIFOMy.

I'm not sure how to judge people based on their reactions to the system. I was the only one that liked it and backtracked later through rsoultin and excel. I tried to think of something similar to this for my last game for similar reasons to what Hier pointed out. Everyone else didn't like it.

On February 16 2015 03:20 jarjarbinks wrote:
No lynch policy day 1. remember I almost got killed for it?

On February 16 2015 03:44 zlefin wrote:
I'd say the vote count makes plenty of sense, unless people are pushing an RNG lynch, it's a bit early to have votes. We haven't even heard from all the players yet, so it's rather hard to have a vote, especially when there's so much time left.

On February 16 2015 01:16 rsoultin wrote:
So I have a problem with you, Hier.

First you're nitpicking a post that has already been corrected xP Bad form.

Second, while I find your little set-up thing interesting (read: a concept I haven't seen put into practice before) it has flaws. Namely, it puts everything on auto-pilot and actually makes it less likely for people to do any work or analysis unless they're the ones on the block. Yuck. Admittedly I could still see a townie bringing up the idea and thinking it's good.

Third, and most damning...all you've done all game is blather on about setting up an automated circle lynch. Got any reads, Hier?

On February 16 2015 03:11 rsoultin wrote:
I'll poke silverarte.

Also, Trfel, same thought on JJB's post.

JJB, can you show me how you arrived at the 47% number? I'm not as good at math but I can at least verify that it's valid when I see it in front of me.

Not as quick to read Hiel...hie...whatever his name is lol >< as town, though. Throwing things into a random number generator and drawing an (MSpaint?) graphic isn't exactly a ton of work, and he's done nothing to show that he cares about finding scum. Maybe when he comes back he'll change my mind.

On February 16 2015 06:38 The Shining wrote:
Personally, I was against Hiers Bridges as I read it as it would take vote analysis away from me, which along with posting inconsistencies are my strongest scumhunting tools. Most points I would make against it have already been elaborated on so I won't beat a dead horse. Just not for it. That being said, Hier is a very slight townread for me. I don't think scum would put themselves in the spotlight so early with a strategy that unwittingly favors scum.

RSo feels like townRSo. She's in like every game I've played recently, here and elsewhere, and I'm not picking up anything out of the norm. Direct questions and responses, scumhunting, engaging. However, see above for why I think you're wrong about Hier. Does scum, especially in a newbie game, have the balls to suggest something like that?

I could see it being misguided town.

On February 16 2015 07:33 Trfel wrote:

Uh, are you reading the thread?

He made it pretty clear that he is scumreading you.

On February 16 2015 07:08 Hier wrote:
jarjarbinks, Trfel:

Purely numerically completely off the wall random lynches win out over the Bridges method by a little over 2 percentage points at the second lynch; it is negligible. In both cases mafia’s odds of escaping 2 lynches in a row are a little better than a coin flip.

Better blind mathematical odds are not, however, what I’m advocating. I am selling a platform, a canvas, through which reads can be made. You say people will be content with the predetermined 2nd lynch and activity will drop – I say you’re wrong. As long as there are 2 sides that want to win arguments will always arise, except in this case they will be of a different nature: justification of substitution, rather than a timed mandatory witch hunt. Bandwagons will certainly not be eliminated, but through this method they will demand sturdier foundations, which eliminates chaos.

Let’s spice things up.

rsoultin:

In 3 separate posts you have described your reads to be null towards people that have posted, and despite you not liking the Bridges method, which is fine, said that it is something a town player may suggest thinking it’s good. Later, after someone mentioned they weren't a fan of my model, you've gone to suggest that I've done nothing to show that I care about finding scum, all the while you proclaim your reads are null and just ask what other players’ reads are. That is the way mafia players probe the scene to start a bandwagon.

Why else, out of the blue, without any further analysis, would you vote me to be lynched with the phrase “Tell me why I’m wrong, or get onboard.”? No, it is your job to tell everyone the reasons behind your vote, not to tell everyone to get onboard.

I vote rsoultin.

I know who your follower is. Should you turn green the town will have a sure scum locked. Should you turn red, someone will bail me out before the 2nd lynch.

On February 16 2015 07:50 Hier wrote:
Trfel:
It only takes one other player to declare his or her support for the model to get people to support its use. I know how Bridges works and how to use it to get a town victory. I will always abide by its rules, but if you later decide it's not worth it by all means abandon it.

On February 16 2015 07:56 Hier wrote:
The Shining:
I am not an oracle, I will give out reads as soon as I come to their conclusion. In turn I must ask for some analysis from other people as well. Despite what you are saying my accusation of rsoultin was not an OMGUS. Within the first paragraph of rsoultin's section I describe why his or her play is scummy, which does not mention his or her vote.