|
On October 07 2014 08:29 batsnacks wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2014 08:19 Grackaroni wrote:
You're implying that at the start of the post BH was careful not to slip that he had knowledge of the setup. (by pointing out that the number of scum is unknown) and then *slipped* that he was 100% sure there were 3 mafia within like 10 seconds of typing which is really unrealistic.
What I see is BH working off the assumption that random lynch provides at least 22% chance of hitting mafia compared to day 1 analysis which varies (and BH thinks is worse for catching mafia) I think it's feasible that he slipped. besides The TL mafia database disagrees that random lynch is better. So by random lynching we 1) have worse odds of lynching mafia and 2) players who agree with the random lynch have zero accountability for their votes.
exactly 0 accountability.
|
On October 07 2014 08:32 Blazinghand wrote:
Are we really talking whether or not I "slipped" that there are 3 mafia in a 14 player game? Again? Do we have to do this every time?
This.
This is an incredibly dumb statement. If BH is actually scum, this is most certainly not why.
|
On October 07 2014 08:32 liancourt wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2014 08:29 batsnacks wrote:On October 07 2014 08:19 Grackaroni wrote:
You're implying that at the start of the post BH was careful not to slip that he had knowledge of the setup. (by pointing out that the number of scum is unknown) and then *slipped* that he was 100% sure there were 3 mafia within like 10 seconds of typing which is really unrealistic.
What I see is BH working off the assumption that random lynch provides at least 22% chance of hitting mafia compared to day 1 analysis which varies (and BH thinks is worse for catching mafia) I think it's feasible that he slipped. besides The TL mafia database disagrees that random lynch is better. So by random lynching we 1) have worse odds of lynching mafia and 2) players who agree with the random lynch have zero accountability for their votes. exactly 0 accountability.
What angle are you working here, exactly?
|
On October 07 2014 08:32 Blazinghand wrote:
Are we really talking whether or not I "slipped" that there are 3 mafia in a 14 player game? Again? Do we have to do this every time?
BH remember that time you didn't know what 3:1 odds were? And you actually told someone this game they aren't educated enough to understand your posts?
You might have slipped.
|
On October 07 2014 08:33 ObiWanShinobi wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2014 08:32 Blazinghand wrote:
Are we really talking whether or not I "slipped" that there are 3 mafia in a 14 player game? Again? Do we have to do this every time? This. This is an incredibly dumb statement. If BH is actually scum, this is most certainly not why.
Cosidering he said 3/13 before I just overlooked it and took no real meaning to it.
|
United Kingdom30775 Posts
when are you going to do anything obi?
|
On October 07 2014 08:34 ObiWanShinobi wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2014 08:32 liancourt wrote:On October 07 2014 08:29 batsnacks wrote:On October 07 2014 08:19 Grackaroni wrote:
You're implying that at the start of the post BH was careful not to slip that he had knowledge of the setup. (by pointing out that the number of scum is unknown) and then *slipped* that he was 100% sure there were 3 mafia within like 10 seconds of typing which is really unrealistic.
What I see is BH working off the assumption that random lynch provides at least 22% chance of hitting mafia compared to day 1 analysis which varies (and BH thinks is worse for catching mafia) I think it's feasible that he slipped. besides The TL mafia database disagrees that random lynch is better. So by random lynching we 1) have worse odds of lynching mafia and 2) players who agree with the random lynch have zero accountability for their votes. exactly 0 accountability. What angle are you working here, exactly?
I'm on the side that you really can't scrutinize votes if they're random. Whether they follow it and made the RNG vote themselves the reason will be oh it's just random. No backlash.
|
On October 07 2014 08:40 Holyflare wrote:
when are you going to do anything obi?
What are you saying? I'm clearly doing stuff right now.
|
On October 07 2014 08:41 liancourt wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2014 08:34 ObiWanShinobi wrote:On October 07 2014 08:32 liancourt wrote:On October 07 2014 08:29 batsnacks wrote:On October 07 2014 08:19 Grackaroni wrote:
You're implying that at the start of the post BH was careful not to slip that he had knowledge of the setup. (by pointing out that the number of scum is unknown) and then *slipped* that he was 100% sure there were 3 mafia within like 10 seconds of typing which is really unrealistic.
What I see is BH working off the assumption that random lynch provides at least 22% chance of hitting mafia compared to day 1 analysis which varies (and BH thinks is worse for catching mafia) I think it's feasible that he slipped. besides The TL mafia database disagrees that random lynch is better. So by random lynching we 1) have worse odds of lynching mafia and 2) players who agree with the random lynch have zero accountability for their votes. exactly 0 accountability. What angle are you working here, exactly? I'm on the side that you really can't scrutinize votes if they're random. Whether they follow it and made the RNG vote themselves the reason will be oh it's just random. No backlash.
So you think that BH's RNG lynch strategem can only be purely scum motivated?
|
Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
You know what's amazing? I never get called out for "scumslips" as scum. I certainly do scummy things, and get called out for it, but I never seem to "slip" because "scumslip" isn't even a thing. And probably at least 1 in 4 games as town (that's 1:3 odds) I get called out for some inconsequential "slip". It happens all the time, and if it was ever correct it wouldn't be annoying, but it's literally _always wrong_. Like, in a 14-player setup would anyone really be surprised if there were 3 scum? Come on, guys. I assume everyone is on my level, but I can't just make the logical leaps I do when people are like "oh, BH is correct about something, so he is scum???"
|
People say that but I really don't feel that's true because there is never a random lynch with no opposition. By voting RNG you are making a statement that nobody's scum read this game is worth more to you than the odds of RNG hitting scum and that you don't feel particularly townie on the guy being random lynched.
Both of those statements I would agree with right now thus I am voting OO
|
Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
On October 07 2014 08:44 ObiWanShinobi wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2014 08:41 liancourt wrote:On October 07 2014 08:34 ObiWanShinobi wrote:On October 07 2014 08:32 liancourt wrote:On October 07 2014 08:29 batsnacks wrote:On October 07 2014 08:19 Grackaroni wrote:
You're implying that at the start of the post BH was careful not to slip that he had knowledge of the setup. (by pointing out that the number of scum is unknown) and then *slipped* that he was 100% sure there were 3 mafia within like 10 seconds of typing which is really unrealistic.
What I see is BH working off the assumption that random lynch provides at least 22% chance of hitting mafia compared to day 1 analysis which varies (and BH thinks is worse for catching mafia) I think it's feasible that he slipped. besides The TL mafia database disagrees that random lynch is better. So by random lynching we 1) have worse odds of lynching mafia and 2) players who agree with the random lynch have zero accountability for their votes. exactly 0 accountability. What angle are you working here, exactly? I'm on the side that you really can't scrutinize votes if they're random. Whether they follow it and made the RNG vote themselves the reason will be oh it's just random. No backlash. So you think that BH's RNG lynch strategem can only be purely scum motivated?
This is a fairly relevant question. I'd like to take this moment to note, liancourt, that I do this all the time as town because it is objectively a good strategy. I'm pretty sure I've done it as scum too (Though I can't think of the game where I did it now) but that's cause as scum I try to play to my town meta, not because this is something I do as scum. RNG is, in my personal opinion, very good. You may disagree, but unless you can demonstrate that I personally don't think RNG is good (a hard thing to demonstrate given that I always use it) I don't see how you can paint my choice to use this scumhunting tactic as scum-motivated.
|
On October 07 2014 08:40 Holyflare wrote:
when are you going to do anything obi?
Looking over this statement again, I'm starting to think this line was stolen directly from my modus operandi in Werewolf.
Why exactly did you ask me this? What exactly are you expecting from me in terms of "doing anything" when I've only been in the thread for like 10 minutes or so?
|
On October 07 2014 08:46 Blazinghand wrote:
You know what's amazing? I never get called out for "scumslips" as scum. I certainly do scummy things, and get called out for it, but I never seem to "slip" because "scumslip" isn't even a thing. And probably at least 1 in 4 games as town (that's 1:3 odds) I get called out for some inconsequential "slip". It happens all the time, and if it was ever correct it wouldn't be annoying, but it's literally _always wrong_. Like, in a 14-player setup would anyone really be surprised if there were 3 scum? Come on, guys. I assume everyone is on my level, but I can't just make the logical leaps I do when people are like "oh, BH is correct about something, so he is scum???"
I don't actually think you're scum I just want you to stop this rng bs...
Like fine... I get it... you found a way to rng lynch on TL without the possibility of gaming it. I do think that's cool. It's something I have thought about before and I never figured out a good solution. I am glad I read your post about it because now I know how. It is interesting.
... but I also think it doesn't help town unless town are robots.
Maybe some townies are worse than robots... point them out... that would be way more helpful.
|
On October 07 2014 08:44 ObiWanShinobi wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2014 08:41 liancourt wrote:On October 07 2014 08:34 ObiWanShinobi wrote:On October 07 2014 08:32 liancourt wrote:On October 07 2014 08:29 batsnacks wrote:On October 07 2014 08:19 Grackaroni wrote:
You're implying that at the start of the post BH was careful not to slip that he had knowledge of the setup. (by pointing out that the number of scum is unknown) and then *slipped* that he was 100% sure there were 3 mafia within like 10 seconds of typing which is really unrealistic.
What I see is BH working off the assumption that random lynch provides at least 22% chance of hitting mafia compared to day 1 analysis which varies (and BH thinks is worse for catching mafia) I think it's feasible that he slipped. besides The TL mafia database disagrees that random lynch is better. So by random lynching we 1) have worse odds of lynching mafia and 2) players who agree with the random lynch have zero accountability for their votes. exactly 0 accountability. What angle are you working here, exactly? I'm on the side that you really can't scrutinize votes if they're random. Whether they follow it and made the RNG vote themselves the reason will be oh it's just random. No backlash. So you think that BH's RNG lynch strategem can only be purely scum motivated?
nailed it
|
On October 07 2014 08:56 liancourt wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2014 08:44 ObiWanShinobi wrote:On October 07 2014 08:41 liancourt wrote:On October 07 2014 08:34 ObiWanShinobi wrote:On October 07 2014 08:32 liancourt wrote:On October 07 2014 08:29 batsnacks wrote:On October 07 2014 08:19 Grackaroni wrote:
You're implying that at the start of the post BH was careful not to slip that he had knowledge of the setup. (by pointing out that the number of scum is unknown) and then *slipped* that he was 100% sure there were 3 mafia within like 10 seconds of typing which is really unrealistic.
What I see is BH working off the assumption that random lynch provides at least 22% chance of hitting mafia compared to day 1 analysis which varies (and BH thinks is worse for catching mafia) I think it's feasible that he slipped. besides The TL mafia database disagrees that random lynch is better. So by random lynching we 1) have worse odds of lynching mafia and 2) players who agree with the random lynch have zero accountability for their votes. exactly 0 accountability. What angle are you working here, exactly? I'm on the side that you really can't scrutinize votes if they're random. Whether they follow it and made the RNG vote themselves the reason will be oh it's just random. No backlash. So you think that BH's RNG lynch strategem can only be purely scum motivated? nailed it
Well you're wrong. It might be a scum-sided strategy but I've seen BH do it as town.
In fact, I'm pretty sure the exact post that he used was pretty much copy pasted from Noir 2, a game that I played with him. So there's no way that post can be purely scum motivated.
|
ebwop I messed up a sentence and it looks weird to me. This:
On October 07 2014 08:53 batsnacks wrote:
Maybe some townies are worse than robots... point them out... that would be way more helpful.
Should be maybe some PEOPLE are worse than robots...
|
On October 07 2014 08:48 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2014 08:44 ObiWanShinobi wrote:On October 07 2014 08:41 liancourt wrote:On October 07 2014 08:34 ObiWanShinobi wrote:On October 07 2014 08:32 liancourt wrote:On October 07 2014 08:29 batsnacks wrote:On October 07 2014 08:19 Grackaroni wrote:
You're implying that at the start of the post BH was careful not to slip that he had knowledge of the setup. (by pointing out that the number of scum is unknown) and then *slipped* that he was 100% sure there were 3 mafia within like 10 seconds of typing which is really unrealistic.
What I see is BH working off the assumption that random lynch provides at least 22% chance of hitting mafia compared to day 1 analysis which varies (and BH thinks is worse for catching mafia) I think it's feasible that he slipped. besides The TL mafia database disagrees that random lynch is better. So by random lynching we 1) have worse odds of lynching mafia and 2) players who agree with the random lynch have zero accountability for their votes. exactly 0 accountability. What angle are you working here, exactly? I'm on the side that you really can't scrutinize votes if they're random. Whether they follow it and made the RNG vote themselves the reason will be oh it's just random. No backlash. So you think that BH's RNG lynch strategem can only be purely scum motivated? This is a fairly relevant question. I'd like to take this moment to note, liancourt, that I do this all the time as town because it is objectively a good strategy. I'm pretty sure I've done it as scum too (Though I can't think of the game where I did it now) but that's cause as scum I try to play to my town meta, not because this is something I do as scum. RNG is, in my personal opinion, very good. You may disagree, but unless you can demonstrate that I personally don't think RNG is good (a hard thing to demonstrate given that I always use it) I don't see how you can paint my choice to use this scumhunting tactic as scum-motivated.
so you do this all the time so I'm meant to believe it's legit?
Ofc I cant demonstrate whether it's a good strat or not but I can only give you the reason I've said before that's it's basically against the town's favor in terms of probability and that I can't see a way you can get any reads using this method. I see more danger following this method if you were scum than doing any good it will come from you being town as I see in my honest opinion more advs for scum than town using this method. If you can convince me otherwise I'm willing to go along with it.
|
On October 07 2014 08:59 ObiWanShinobi wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2014 08:56 liancourt wrote:On October 07 2014 08:44 ObiWanShinobi wrote:On October 07 2014 08:41 liancourt wrote:On October 07 2014 08:34 ObiWanShinobi wrote:On October 07 2014 08:32 liancourt wrote:On October 07 2014 08:29 batsnacks wrote:On October 07 2014 08:19 Grackaroni wrote:
You're implying that at the start of the post BH was careful not to slip that he had knowledge of the setup. (by pointing out that the number of scum is unknown) and then *slipped* that he was 100% sure there were 3 mafia within like 10 seconds of typing which is really unrealistic.
What I see is BH working off the assumption that random lynch provides at least 22% chance of hitting mafia compared to day 1 analysis which varies (and BH thinks is worse for catching mafia) I think it's feasible that he slipped. besides The TL mafia database disagrees that random lynch is better. So by random lynching we 1) have worse odds of lynching mafia and 2) players who agree with the random lynch have zero accountability for their votes. exactly 0 accountability. What angle are you working here, exactly? I'm on the side that you really can't scrutinize votes if they're random. Whether they follow it and made the RNG vote themselves the reason will be oh it's just random. No backlash. So you think that BH's RNG lynch strategem can only be purely scum motivated? nailed it Well you're wrong. It might be a scum-sided strategy but I've seen BH do it as town. In fact, I'm pretty sure the exact post that he used was pretty much copy pasted from Noir 2, a game that I played with him. So there's no way that post can be purely scum motivated.
If you keep bringing past games up on me I can't exactly empathize with you mate. So I'm solely basing it on this game and how I feel about it. All I'm saying is there's more potential for abuse than it will do good.
It's like a nuclear bomb. It has the potential to do much worse things than being used as a source of peacekeeper device. I hope this analogy is correct
|
On October 07 2014 09:15 liancourt wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2014 08:59 ObiWanShinobi wrote:On October 07 2014 08:56 liancourt wrote:On October 07 2014 08:44 ObiWanShinobi wrote:On October 07 2014 08:41 liancourt wrote:On October 07 2014 08:34 ObiWanShinobi wrote:On October 07 2014 08:32 liancourt wrote:On October 07 2014 08:29 batsnacks wrote:On October 07 2014 08:19 Grackaroni wrote:
You're implying that at the start of the post BH was careful not to slip that he had knowledge of the setup. (by pointing out that the number of scum is unknown) and then *slipped* that he was 100% sure there were 3 mafia within like 10 seconds of typing which is really unrealistic.
What I see is BH working off the assumption that random lynch provides at least 22% chance of hitting mafia compared to day 1 analysis which varies (and BH thinks is worse for catching mafia) I think it's feasible that he slipped. besides The TL mafia database disagrees that random lynch is better. So by random lynching we 1) have worse odds of lynching mafia and 2) players who agree with the random lynch have zero accountability for their votes. exactly 0 accountability. What angle are you working here, exactly? I'm on the side that you really can't scrutinize votes if they're random. Whether they follow it and made the RNG vote themselves the reason will be oh it's just random. No backlash. So you think that BH's RNG lynch strategem can only be purely scum motivated? nailed it Well you're wrong. It might be a scum-sided strategy but I've seen BH do it as town. In fact, I'm pretty sure the exact post that he used was pretty much copy pasted from Noir 2, a game that I played with him. So there's no way that post can be purely scum motivated. If you keep bringing past games up on me I can't exactly empathize with you mate. So I'm solely basing it on this game and how I feel about it. All I'm saying is there's more potential for abuse than it will do good. It's like a nuclear bomb. It has the potential to do much worse things than being used as a source of peacekeeper device. I hope this analogy is correct
The issue isn't that you called it a bad strategy, because it is. The issue is that you said he could only be scum for suggesting such a strategy, which is factually incorrect.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
