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On October 07 2014 07:19 Grackaroni wrote:
Damdred what do you think of KSC's attack on BH?
I think its completely unwarranted because I have experience with BH. But I also know Kel and he cares not for old games and in the time i've played with him he refuses to take that into account (i do not know if he has changed that stance) and only takes what he sees in the thread. So overall i think its a misguided attack on BH when the thread discussion really wasn't anything to interesting to divert.
I'm town reading BH and Kel is currently null to me
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On October 07 2014 07:21 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2014 07:19 Damdred wrote:
Of course HF thats what I like to do early, I ask questions guage how people react to them and answer them and put them into my reads later. I don't bust stuff out super fast I have to build up to it unless I know someone well sadly.
And besides you still never answered my question why you never voted for oats even after pushing him so hard. because he left and i have no new info, originally i didn't know there was a voting thread and then when i found out i acted like it was just a pressure vote in thread
Most of your filter even post pointing out you haven't voted him is still devoted to Oats. Would you vote him now even though you do not have enough information? Are you scum reading him now? Or are you wanting to move onto someone else
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United Kingdom30775 Posts
don't really know nor care at the moment because oats has been talked to death and hasn't posted since we last talked about him so this line of questioning is quite frankly irrelevant and if you want to use it to somehow magically discover my alignment then you are wasting your time on it, i'm town and you'll find that out when i eventually get night killed.
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Why should I have to wait until you get NK to be able to determine if you are town or not? If you are town its beneficial that I determine what I think is your alignment before hand, so you do not like my methods thats ok it works out for me most games even if it annoys people. And besides you are the main reason Oats was talked to death but we can move on from that.
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United Kingdom30775 Posts
because I AM town so any attempt at looking at my filter to learn that is futile and if you are the least bit concerned your concerns will be quashed with me being killed. Thus your time is much better spent looking at other people and sheeping my scum reads
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lol HF's argument: Don't question me because I'm town. Now sheep me.
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United Kingdom30775 Posts
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So when can we question you? The game where you roll scum and you say "go ahead and question me I'm scum so I'll be here until end game."
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Although BH's posts seem like town his methods seem questionable. Whether or not there was worthy discussion before the RNG is of no consequence. The fact that he disrupted any sort of discussion and flung the thread into a whole new direction worries me deeply. I can see 1 of 2 scenarios of why this happened.
1. That there were relevant information in the discussion so as to dismiss everything -> RNG
2. The discussion indeed was bollocks so he wanted to renew.
Now I'm inclined to think as mafia you'd want to steer away from discussion involving one of your own.
But as town as long as there is discussion it doesn't really matter whether it's bad or productive so long as you can get some form of information.
I'm still iffy on BH. It's much more plausible for him to be mafia and spin the wheel of fortune as it has a lesser chance of getting a mafia. On the odd chance that it does land on one he doesn't have to push the lynch for it to just dissolve in the discussion but it's strange he keeps pushing OO for the lynch. Yes, he has been acting strangely I do admit that, but I can't help but think it's so convenient for the mafia to use this strategy.
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Wait a minute, something isn't right. I quoted all of the following from the same post.
On October 07 2014 02:35 Blazinghand wrote:
...there's roughly speaking 13 players, right? If 3 are scum, then that gives us a solid 22% chance of lynching scum purely based on RNG.
No townie in this game knows the ratio of town to mafia, so it is correct here that BH gives us an example ratio of 10/3 or 22% as an example.
But then later in that post he says this:
On October 07 2014 02:35 Blazinghand wrote:
...the fact of the matter is, I'm offering a straight-up 22% chance to lynch someone.
BH how do you KNOW there are exactly 3 mafia? I bolded fact because that's a serious word to throw around when you're supposedly working with estimates.
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On October 07 2014 08:06 Grackaroni wrote:
So when can we question you? The game where you roll scum and you say "go ahead and question me I'm scum so I'll be here until end game."
This game was the heavyweight championship game btw. tsk tsk
3-4 is the reasonable assumption for mafia with 14 people so the 22% isn't very strange to me.
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On October 07 2014 08:10 Grackaroni wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2014 08:06 Grackaroni wrote:
So when can we question you? The game where you roll scum and you say "go ahead and question me I'm scum so I'll be here until end game." This game was the heavyweight championship game btw. tsk tsk 3-4 is the reasonable assumption for mafia with 14 people so the 22% isn't very strange to me.
But he offers it as a "straight-up" "fact"
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Just got off work, rereading.
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You're implying that at the start of the post BH was careful not to slip that he had knowledge of the setup. (by pointing out that the number of scum is unknown) and then *slipped* that he was 100% sure there were 3 mafia within like 10 seconds of typing which is really unrealistic.
What I see is BH working off the assumption that random lynch provides at least 22% chance of hitting mafia compared to day 1 analysis which varies (and BH thinks is worse for catching mafia)
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the math fails are strong.
A) 3/13=23%
B) 14 players (3/14 = 21.4%, 4/14=28.5%)
C) 3 mafia makes perfect sense given the roles present in this game.
omw home soon, will reread after i get there and get something to eat, expect me in ~3 hours max. p.s. stop using setup speculation for scumreads.
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On October 07 2014 08:19 Grackaroni wrote:
You're implying that at the start of the post BH was careful not to slip that he had knowledge of the setup. (by pointing out that the number of scum is unknown) and then *slipped* that he was 100% sure there were 3 mafia within like 10 seconds of typing which is really unrealistic.
What I see is BH working off the assumption that random lynch provides at least 22% chance of hitting mafia compared to day 1 analysis which varies (and BH thinks is worse for catching mafia)
I think it's feasible that he slipped.
besides
The TL mafia database disagrees that random lynch is better. So by random lynching we 1) have worse odds of lynching mafia and 2) players who agree with the random lynch have zero accountability for their votes.
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On October 07 2014 08:20 Hopeless1der wrote:
the math fails are strong.
A) 3/13=23%
B) 14 players (3/14 = 21.4%, 4/14=28.5%)
C) 3 mafia makes perfect sense given the roles present in this game.
omw home soon, will reread after i get there and get something to eat, expect me in ~3 hours max. p.s. stop using setup speculation for scumreads.
This doesn't account for 3rd parties.
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On October 07 2014 08:29 batsnacks wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2014 08:19 Grackaroni wrote:
You're implying that at the start of the post BH was careful not to slip that he had knowledge of the setup. (by pointing out that the number of scum is unknown) and then *slipped* that he was 100% sure there were 3 mafia within like 10 seconds of typing which is really unrealistic.
What I see is BH working off the assumption that random lynch provides at least 22% chance of hitting mafia compared to day 1 analysis which varies (and BH thinks is worse for catching mafia) I think it's feasible that he slipped. besides The TL mafia database disagrees that random lynch is better. So by random lynching we 1) have worse odds of lynching mafia and 2) players who agree with the random lynch have zero accountability for their votes.
BH always does this, ergo you can't draw conclusions about his alignment using plays that he makes regardless of alignment.
Please don't push scumslips because they are the worst heuristic in the history of the universe.
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On October 07 2014 08:31 ObiWanShinobi wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2014 08:29 batsnacks wrote:On October 07 2014 08:19 Grackaroni wrote:
You're implying that at the start of the post BH was careful not to slip that he had knowledge of the setup. (by pointing out that the number of scum is unknown) and then *slipped* that he was 100% sure there were 3 mafia within like 10 seconds of typing which is really unrealistic.
What I see is BH working off the assumption that random lynch provides at least 22% chance of hitting mafia compared to day 1 analysis which varies (and BH thinks is worse for catching mafia) I think it's feasible that he slipped. besides The TL mafia database disagrees that random lynch is better. So by random lynching we 1) have worse odds of lynching mafia and 2) players who agree with the random lynch have zero accountability for their votes. BH always does this, ergo you can't draw conclusions about his alignment using plays that he makes regardless of alignment. Please don't push scumslips because they are the worst heuristic in the history of the universe.
Find something better then.
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Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
Are we really talking whether or not I "slipped" that there are 3 mafia in a 14 player game? Again? Do we have to do this every time?
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EPT
