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I am gonna post now only what I think is the most important at this stage of the gam but I can also try to give reads of other players. I did not quote every player since I want to hear what your opinions are about my theory so far.
Barakos
Brings up a very important point early on that I will elaborate later:
Lynching a liar is something that is very situation-dependend... like "Did the person lie to protect a powerrole at night?" vs. "Did sb. fakeclaim a powerrole at daytime to get the real powerrole lynched?"
Also he speaks out what many others have been probably thinking:
To be honest I find it pretty suspicious to talk people into (soft-)roleclaims before the first End of Day... feels like putting a crosshair on their back for the first night and the last thing I would want to do is make scums job of powerrole-hunting any easier.
He says about me that I am like an empty book which I find much less suspicious than trying to frame me as Mafia despite my posts from Day 1.
Overall I see him as town since he brings up some very important points regarding being critical and analytical by also being critical about Jenny. Furthermore he did not want to target people for being inactive unless some other people.
Superbia
He seems to be the most likely Mafia at the moment to me because in my opinion he was the one who speculated wildly the most without giving real arguments (e.g. the soft claim, scum because of evil sounding usernames, framing me as Mafia twice despite my low post content... etc)
He was the person that I was waiting for to frame me as Mafia, since he tried to scapegoat most of the other players and I would be the easiest target to do this with, since I had the lowest posted content. He did not disappoint me.
Also, wasn't asking for a read on marine, but there might be a (slight) possibility that mafia was essentially solo day 1
Is there maybe a world where Marine is mafia, and his partner had to work alone so far?
To this I can reply that I would probably not be in the game anymore if I accidently posted as Mafia what I did in day 1 (even if it is my first game). Furthermore as Mafia it would have been way easier for me to just jump on the bandwagon saying "BM is unacceptable if he is not killed by a mod we have to do it (I nearly did but while I was angry Jenny posted and confused me, since in the end I could not tell if he is town or not anymore)."
Coming back to this quote by Barakos
Lynching a liar is something that is very situation-dependend... like "Did the person lie to protect a powerrole at night?" vs. "Did sb. fakeclaim a powerrole at daytime to get the real powerrole lynched?"
The second option is what I think Superbia did right after MeatPudding was killed. He said
“Easiest fucking deflect of my life. Donkey mafia, how does it feel to be remote controlled?”
Which indicates to me that he is fake claiming jailkeeper to get the real jailkeeper lynched at the end of the day. I don’t think that he is the real Jailkeeper because giving away your role immediately like this is bad for you and the town.
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Meatpudding (and why he might have died)
Gets accused by Superbia to soft claim a cop role and immediately sees this as “wicked” and scummy behaviour and voices his opinion of Superbia really clearly
Kill the beast!
Superbia
Shortly after that he votes on Superbia.
The next morning he directly tells Superbia again what he thinks of him:
Finally,
9. I'm inclined to agree mainly with abuse here. You and I seem to be reading the opposite and it makes you look wicked to me.
And last but not least he is saying that Superbia seems to be town for him but gives him the name superbias and follows up with the following parapgraph:
You back out on your thesis a bit after being pulled up on some points. The thing is you keep trying to justify it by saying those points are not important. Instead you should be trying to highlight the points that are important, and you've failed to do that. Please update and justify your reads.
To conclude imo MP argues that Superbia continually tries to find new scapegoats after he realizes that most of them can see his logical flaws. I think out of all his actions the interactions between him and Superbia were the most memorable before he died.
He is also one of the few people who is critical of Jenny.
I think that probably he was a cop about to check on Superbia but he got killed in the process.
JennyHell
One of the most analytical posters by far. Constantly reminded us of important rules and guidelines. Encourages people to be active and is herself. Says about herself that she would play the same as Mafia/town and has a few games of experience. Overall I have to say that I cannot really read her (are some of the guidelines she posts just some kind of scripted copy paste metagame that she uses in every game?) but nonetheless she is in my towncircle because how she supported me and other players (especially gobble…). I like that she doesn’t make it too easy for herself to be liked.
One of the only things that makes me suspicious about her is that she asked for my name/role.
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At first I also didn't read it as a claim. Only when you quoted yourself some posts ago it sprung to my attention, as you talked about roles afterwards.
So in case it was a roleblocker, that blocked you, this would explain this... There is still the chance of the jailer, thinking you were mafia as well... but that doesn't make sense... there would have been better targets to block. As a jailer you either block your most obvious scum in order to prevent the nightkills or you block your top town in order to protect him from a nightkill, even if this means you may prevent an allys special ability from working.
But let's not get sidetracked by this, as this is to much theoretical consideration.
Back to the hard fact, that meatpudding died.
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As I said he seems to have been one of the most critical people about Superbia (see my post above) and it seems to me that most of his content involved him interacting with Superbia, this is what I got from loooking through MPs filter
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Just to be sure: If there is a town Jailkeeper, you do not out here.
I will interact later.
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Also, if MeatPatron was a cop, it would've shown when he died (his death revealed VT).
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On August 29 2014 22:27 Daydreamarine wrote:Show nested quote +“Easiest fucking deflect of my life. Donkey mafia, how does it feel to be remote controlled?” Which indicates to me that he is fake claiming jailkeeper to get the real jailkeeper lynched at the end of the day. I don’t think that he is the real Jailkeeper because giving away your role immediately like this is bad for you and the town.
I have to defend superbia at this point, since I feel you totally missunderstood him.
The way he meant his sentence was, that he threatend to reevaluate Jenny and me, if none of the two of us was killed that night. And his opinion was, that both, Jenny and I are alive because of this thread to reevaluate, like "i tricked mafia into lynching a lower priority target by saying i would misstrust Jenny and Barakos, if the don't die." In his opionon he out-mindgamed mafia.
This by no means is a claim of a powerrole, since at the time superbia said this, there was nothing, that even hinted at a role. This first came into consideration by abuse giving out the pm, which hardconfirmed the existence of a blocker in the game.
Superbia might still be mafia, I will go to the rest of your case to see, what else you got and analyse it further but superbia is definitly not mafia for this sentence. You completely missunderstood the context in which he said this and your conclusion out of this is just false in my eyes.
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Just to be sure: If there is a town Jailkeeper, you do not out here.
I will interact later.
Of course not, since you already did that, or did you mean something else with that one liner?
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Also like I wrote earlier I thought banished means jailed a few pages ago, thats why I assumed there would be a jailer. Only by bringing up the matrix I was reminded that there are several possible setups including various possible power roles.
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I don't think this is a question to the mod but if there is two mafia alive and one gets role blocked does it stop their kp for that night? Also if anyone else got role blocked you should out.
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On August 29 2014 22:27 Daydreamarine wrote:Superbia He seems to be the most likely Mafia at the moment to me because in my opinion he was the one who speculated wildly the most without giving real arguments (e.g. the soft claim, scum because of evil sounding usernames, framing me as Mafia twice despite my low post content... etc) He was the person that I was waiting for to frame me as Mafia, since he tried to scapegoat most of the other players and I would be the easiest target to do this with, since I had the lowest posted content. He did not disappoint me. Show nested quote +Also, wasn't asking for a read on marine, but there might be a (slight) possibility that mafia was essentially solo day 1 Show nested quote +Is there maybe a world where Marine is mafia, and his partner had to work alone so far? To this I can reply that I would probably not be in the game anymore if I accidently posted as Mafia what I did in day 1 (even if it is my first game). Furthermore as Mafia it would have been way easier for me to just jump on the bandwagon saying "BM is unacceptable if he is not killed by a mod we have to do it (I nearly did but while I was angry Jenny posted and confused me, since in the end I could not tell if he is town or not anymore)."
bold: I actually didn't read that part right, when I first read the post... you were present at the end of day and did not vote on purpose? Because this is how this sounds.
underlined: this is the only part in your first post, that makes you look town to me. I got the impression, that you at first had a totally wrong understanding about the concept of forum-mafia and thought this is a roleplay, where everybody would be given a role and then the thread would be some kind of roleplay with open roles. So this leads me to believe, that if you actually rolled mafia, your openingpost would have looked totally different and might actually have given your role away.
At the moment, you are town for me, but not for the content you provide, but only for the simple fact, that I am quite sure, that you didn't understand the rules and had you been mafia, you would have given yourself away at this point.
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bold: I actually didn't read that part right, when I first read the post... you were present at the end of day and did not vote on purpose? Because this is how this sounds.
As I explained multiple times I just had a hard time with all these contradicting theories of people and wild guesses that are not founded on arguments that I really didn*t know what to do or how to even comprehend what was written since I had a gut feeling what felt right to say but not why. After a while I saw the filter button mentioned and that helped me to slowly orient myself after the voting deadline was through.
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Ok, here's my explanation for why I gave lilwade slack day 1 and don't feel the same anymore.
He comes out in his first post by saying "Let it go, let it goooo!"
I instantly think about the song and realizes that there are some words in it that would fit a tracker amazingly, so I say "How am I supposed to follow you if there's no footprint to be seen?" to see if he reacts to it.
He responded rather cheerfully and then at a later stage I felt that he softed tracker in one of his posts.
Now that abuse has come out as being roleblocked it means that tracker is a less likely role, unless abuse is testing us all to see if he can out roles.
Roles should not out, by the way.
But that also meant that I'm back to the point where I feel like lilwade just haven't done enough. Therefore, no longer cutting him the slack that I did day1.
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Well... let's turn this mess into something productive, since I don't think you are scum I will try to work with you.
If your claim turns out true to be true - who do you think could be the second scum? Do you think there is a chance, that abuse and superbia made the whole fighting up and this all was some kind of play by the two? Or do you think that it is only superbia trying to frame abuse?
Also in case of superbia turning out to be town at some point in the game - would you start to agree with his reads on abuse?
What do you make out of Breshke, MihZaaa and lilwade? I get that those aren't people you have a good read on, since you said this in your post, but if you had to answer, what would you say is your general impression on them?
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my post was directed at daydreamarine. should have quoted him.
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I can see something that could represent a soft claim by lilwade, but I think there is no way you want to soft claim on day 1 anyway, especially if there's never a vigi in the game.
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I also dislike how pretty much everyone so far has agreed with Breshke and MihZaaa as good wagons.
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On that note, where's MihZaaa?
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Abuse, can you give your current complete read on MihZaaa?
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On August 29 2014 23:13 Breshke wrote:
I don't think this is a question to the mod but if there is two mafia alive and one gets role blocked does it stop their kp for that night? Also if anyone else got role blocked you should out.
I've been contemplating this back and forth for a while.
I got roleblocked/jailed in the night as well. The reasoning for me not wanting to out this straight away is rather complex. I'll run it down for you guys so you can see my train of thought.
I didn't know which one I was targeted by to start with, and I didn't want to out to the mafia team that there is a jailed, had it not been them that targeted me.
I felt like it was more likely that I was jailed rather than roleblocked due to how towny I was most of the day but especially at the end of day1. I was likely to be one of the people mafia would want to get rid of.
The kill being meatpudding and the whole ordeal about him softing cop made me think that mafia probably were non the wiser about the setup so far and thought there might be a cop among us townsfolk, so if I outed I was jailed/roleblocked and they weren't the ones doing it to me they would know the setup.
If I don't out I was jailed/roleblocked and mafia did roleblock abuse, that would mean they still have it in the back of their mind that there is a cop out there.
However, if mafia roleblocked me and they've seen that abuse was jailed and I haven't claimed it opens up a window in which they can fake claim cop and while I wouldn't let them live through it, it could possibly throw town in the wrong direction.
Now that it's been a while and I've seen some discussion back and forth I'd rather make sure we are all on the same page here with what the setup is. That way we are all on the same level and we all have the same information.
TL;DR - 2 people were roleblocked/jailed in the night. The setup is therefore setup A, unless abuse is lying to out a role, which seems highly unlikely in a newbie mafia game.
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EPT
