Detention Mafia - Page 4

On June 06 2014 13:01 Amiko wrote:
@Mderg:
Can you talk some about fuba in particular?
Ideally I'd like you to make as strong a case on fuba as you can.

On June 07 2014 01:19 HaruRH wrote:


It should be obvious by now that both fuba and mderg are intentionally hiding or trying to get attention - I still think fuba is the lynch.
I am not going to convince both of you to switch to fuba, but Palmar's flip will prove to be a headache for us.

On June 07 2014 02:19 Palmar wrote:
I've posted more in this game than the other two dudes combined and I'm being lynched

#logic

On June 07 2014 02:28 HaruRH wrote:


To me, this statement have convinced me fuba is the scum we are looking for. he did not include himself into the group of town. If it was any other town, he would have stated

I'm not sure there's a way for us town to win out of this situation

On June 07 2014 02:29 Palmar wrote:
Ok, This is where I have to leave for a while. I can't guarantee I'll be back before the deadline.

Despite being and sounding frustrated, this has actually been fun. It's nice to have an actual challenge in front of you. Trying to move this town in the right direction feels like moving a mountain.

So in case I don't get back, sorry if I've gotten a bit mad at times.

@Amiko you haven't actually played awful. Your case on sloosh was very well disguised at least from my point of view. I thought it was a regular case and it being a cop-check case didn't even cross my mind. You're just being a bit thick headed today, but I guess it's a learning experience you have to go through. Make sure you realize what you did wrong because you're going to be the one leading the lylo lynch. I think it's fuba but I'm far from 100% convinced.

@Chrom, town hero, never forget.

@Haru, thanks for being reasonable. The trap thing you did was hilariously useless, but at least pointed to your thought process coming from a townie. You've played this day better than anyone else.

Thanks for playing guys.

On June 07 2014 02:30 HaruRH wrote:


I don't know if mderg is trying to convince us all that Palmar is the scum through his feelings or what, this is definitely not something I would like to see from a mafia candidate. we need to pressure mderg more to speak up and give us his final thoughts rather than sheep you and afk.

On June 07 2014 02:41 HaruRH wrote:
He is not even trying anymore. As I quote from mderg,

On June 06 2014 00:05 fuba wrote:
Chronologically through the thread:

Mderg disagrees with the jabber lynch in his first post. He says I'm his top scumread based on me not immediately giving a reason for my vote, but doesn't respond in any way to my actual reasoning. This is the EXACT SAME THING that gobble did all game. Mderg really, really hard defends jabber, but despite a scumread on me for my super scummy vote w/o explanation, he doesn't place a vote. He doesn't try to get people off of jabber, he just tries to show that he's defending a townie. Chrom mentions this here:


Chrom is incredibly critical of mderg's play D1, and he ends up dead D2.

D2 he votes MZ, disappears for 23 hours, then switches to SlOosh. At the point he switches to SlOosh, the impetus is pretty strong behind that wagon. There's pretty much no way scum can lynch MZ unless all three of them jump onto him, something that scum rarely like to do. He also really firmly agrees with what Amiko says, so it could very easily be a bus. This firm agreement also makes it really difficult to back off of, especially if he tries to do it to mislynch MZ and we later find that SlOosh is scum. Mderg couldn't have switched his vote without looking really, really suspicious.

He's then roleblocked N2, which made him look even more townie after the lynch. Could be real, but could also be solidifying him as town after a successful bus.

The SlOosh lynch and the roleblock made me kinda ignore mderg as a suspect, but after filtering him he could certainly be the last scum. I'll look at palmar after class, but I think the thing I found scummiest about him was how quickly he appeared when I questioned the SlOosh lynch. Maybe he's town and he's being honest about not being able to play a lot on the weekend, maybe he's scum and he saw an opportunity to throw the thread into chaos D3 and secure a mislynch. That's really the only thing about that situation that I found really scummy about him though, since he'd been on MZ forever and clearly wanted MZ lynched over sloosh the entire time.

Class time, be back later~

On June 07 2014 02:57 fuba wrote:

1) Fair enough. I was going off of mderg's filter, where chrom seemed really suspicious of him. Looking at the timestamps, chrom posted his updated reads 4 hours before the N1 deadline, so his previous suspicions might have still been on scum's mind when they sent in the kill. Regardless, my point may be moot on this count simply because it looks like chrom's reads list has significant suspicion of both sloosh and gobble, and he appeared pretty townie D1, so his death didn't need to relate to mderg at all. A more thorough filter dive would be needed to tell if chrom's suspicions of sloosh and gobble were as obvious prior to his reads list, but I don't have the time at the moment :S

In any case, I'd like to draw attention to the fact that mderg asks me for my thoughts on gobble and MZ at some point D1. I respond with my thoughts on gobble (my MZ thoughts to come later, as I had limited time), to which he responds that he disagrees with anything I say that might make gobble scum. He then writes a case on MZ being scum. SlOosh also asks me for my MZ read at some point. It makes me feel like scum wanted me to set up a case on MZ for them to sheep onto. To simplify: Mderg asks me for my thoughts on scum and town, I give my thoughts on scum, he says those thoughts don't indicate scum, he makes a case on town. It seems odd to ask for my thoughts on gobble for no reason, only to make a case on MZ. It's a weird progression, particularly with sloosh also wanting my input on MZ. Maybe I'm reading too much into it, idunno.

2) Not entirely accurate. I'd have to check bunnies' filter again, but it felt like her vote was promised to sloosh, since she said she had promised a case on him, but ran out of time. And MZ was clearly going to vote for sloosh. Gobble's vote, presumably, would have been going to MZ. All of the votes were already dedicated to someone, and it would have left:



At this point, there's no winning for scum. While the votes aren't placed, we can generally guess where they're going to fall. And scum would have been watching this carefully the entire time. Even removing bunnies' vote, in case I'm incorrect, and adding my vote if I went for MZ instead, sloosh is still getting lynched over MZ, and that's with the entire scumteam on that wagon. This is actually the perfect time for him to switch over, because it still looks like the lynch is up in the air, when it's pretty much decided already. They don't want the entire scumteam on one wagon, it gains towncred to switch wagons "early", and the sloosh lynch looks inevitable. Scum have more information, and this looks like a situation where they used it pretty well to their advantage.

Huh, palmar's kinda in the same boat as mderg in this situation, except he doesn't switch. My instinct tells me this is evidence of palmar being more likely town than mderg. Dunno though, would have to give that a bit more thought than I have time for atm.

I think there are more questions for me, but I just realized that my appointment is in 3 minutes, so I've really gotta go. I'll be back in an hour-ish.

On June 07 2014 03:35 HaruRH wrote:
From a voting perspective, mderg voted as such:
D1: MZ
D2: MZ -> Sloosh
D3: MZ

His reasons for voting MZ on the first day is this:

+ Show Spoiler +
Overall reason: not convinced of his play of making weird pushes without proper followup.

From filterdiving mderg, excluding his defense on jwz, it all falls under 3 categories:

1) bussing

+ Show Spoiler +

He basically jumped onto the slooshwagon with a reason that is based on his feelings.

2) redirecting attention

After jumping onto the slooshwagon, he stated that scum should be on the MZ wagon, which he initially jumped out of.

+ Show Spoiler +

3) agreeing

Much of his entire filter was filled with him agreeing with almost every little thing everyone wrote.

To me, he seems to be trying to avoid discussion about him through trying to post as effectively as possible. He certainly achieved this. But the play where he gave minimal reasons for sheeping sloosh lynch but yet suspect everyone on the MZ lynch, which he initially jumped out of, is very suspicious.

On June 02 2014 03:22 mderg wrote:

As you can probably guess I´m thinking about this in a similar way. Discussing where to look for scum and pressuring these guys when the lynch comes up seems to be more reasonable. Even though I think the remaining scum is in that lynch list I think that some actual discussion would be helpful.

On June 07 2014 03:40 HaruRH wrote:
Secondly, he managed to hang onto voting for MZ throughout the 3 days because of varied reasons that made his choice very towny. Likewise, hanging onto a MZ vote without providing much reasons (his only reason longer than 1 paragraph is what I spoilered above). Not much reasons for voting MZ. This is weird for someone so fixated on killing MZ, but yet points back at people who voted for MZ. He only stated that people on MZ were mafia when the lynch and modkill went through - everyone gave him the free pass for doing so. I don't like this. We need mderg talking.

On June 07 2014 05:15 Palmar wrote:
@mderg if you're mafia you should totally be voting fuba.

On June 08 2014 04:21 HaruRH wrote:
See. for the whole night, no responses. Time to post fanfics

On June 08 2014 05:08 Amiko wrote:
@Mderg:
I'd like your thoughts on this, even though it is speculative - if you are town, why did scum kill Alakaslam instead of you?

On June 08 2014 05:36 fuba wrote:

I can't remember a single time that slam was ever actually in danger of being lynched despite not being able to remember a single contribution he made to the game. I contributed more than him and I've been called out multiple times for not contributing. The only thing that explains it for me is the roleblock.

And yes, mderg looked towny. That is *exactly* the reason he did it. All of it. He switched to sloosh at a time where, I repeat, sloosh was GUARANTEED to be lynched. There was a very, very low probability that he could get out of it. Every vote was accounted for, even if they weren't placed. You can't look at it from the perspective of a townie - someone who's trying to find the right lynch. Look at it from the perspective of a scummer - someone who is trying to control the lynch for their own ends. They had no control of it anymore at that point. And keeping the entire scumteam on the town wagon would have been an absolutely terrible play. They needed someone off of MZ, and they couldn't avoid not lynching sloosh. Sloosh can't vote for himself, gobble has disappeared from the thread, and that would just leave mderg. Yes, his switch seemed strong, because he reiterated points that you brought up and he was actually lynching someone he knew for a fact to be scum. His switch was the best possible scum play at that point in the game.

Compare that to what I did, which did absolutely nothing but make me look suspicious. What was my plan with that as scum? It looks like two of my scummates are going to be lynched/modkilled, so I go balls to the wall to save one of them when I know the alternate wagon I'm pushing is a mislynch? My actions D2 did me no favors whatsoever.

On June 08 2014 05:51 fuba wrote:

My reasoning had very little to do with the actual cases on the players. It was about the nature of the lynch itself. The basic logic behind it was: if everyone says they will vote on one of these two players, and one of those players is scum, then scum's goal is to sway the lynch towards the townie (turns out that they tried to do that but were unable to). This doesn't take into account your force behind the scum lynch, though, which was a pretty big mistake on my part. I basically overestimated the sway that scum had in that situation.

On June 08 2014 06:18 fuba wrote:

I don't have to convince you, you already know you're scum.

But for everyone else, my play D2 made no sense as scum. Sloosh was inevitably going to be lynched, and by putting myself at the forefront of the switch back to MZ, I'd be really damn suspicious even if I secured a mislynch D2. And since gobble didn't post for that entire day, and he got modkilled for not voting, I'm gonna go ahead and guess that you couldn't get ahold of him to plan a strategy. And even if he was there to switch over, then that would put the entire scumteam on the mislynch wagon. Bad bad bad bad bad plan.

On June 08 2014 08:28 fuba wrote:

You can't know something that isn't true

And no, me derailing a scum wagon onto town would have looked much worse than you defending a townie.

So you're saying I concocted a plan to force the entire scumteam onto MZ in order to prevent a sloosh lynch that would occur the following day, anyway, and reveal that the switch was clearly scum motivated? And I did so without knowing whether or not gobble would actually be there to support my daring ploy, which makes even the chance of getting a mislynch out of it pretty unlikely?

On June 08 2014 14:00 HaruRH wrote:
Either me or sqrt needs to hold the absolute lynch now, it mustn't fall onto mderg or fuba. I have my suspicions of mderg now that I thought of it hard.

Mderg's n2 self roleblock made sense as mafia

On d2, both the goons died. There was a need for scum to present himself as the towniest person ever, and one way around it was to claim rb. As such, he can guarantee that amiko will never check him since he is a 'confirmed townie' now.

Valid points raised on why mderg could be scum

These points were surpressed by the fact that mderg is town because he was roleblocked. For example, the MZ sheeping. Also, by acknowledging that amiko was the main wagon starter, mderg could easily agree with everything that amiko says. This helps in letting mderg sheep his way through this game - until this critical junction.

On June 08 2014 10:04 fuba wrote:
His responses to me feel so damn transparently scum, it's infuriating. Look at his last responses to me. He says that the motivation for actions is irrelevant, it's only actions that count (I paraphrased, so he can't come back and say I'm "misquoting" him like his scumbuddy did. He ignores the motivation by ignoring my entire post in order to focus attention on the action, while I ask him to explain what my MOTIVATION was. He can't provide any motivation. It's impossible for him.). THAT IS 100% SCUM MINDSET. The entire point of a bus is to make it look like you're town through your actions, and hope people don't see the motivation behind it. I have absolutely no idea how you can believe that it makes sense for me as scum to try to switch the lynch in the last few hours when there's no reasonable motivation for it, and yet there's a treasure trove of motivation for mderg to do exactly what he did as scum.

On June 08 2014 17:31 HaruRH wrote:


You mean that 2 paragraph worth of stating why MZ is scum, which does not apply after d1? That doesn't count, I already explained.

Give me some time to get on my pc, it is horrible to attempt to format anything on phone.

On June 08 2014 11:59 fuba wrote:
Rofl

Actually, killing Amiko is the worst thing I could have done if I was scum. He's the only one who would have a conversation, however misguided.

On June 08 2014 23:49 fuba wrote:

Answered this before you even asked it: "(I paraphrased, so he can't come back and say I'm "misquoting" him like his scumbuddy did. He ignores the motivation by ignoring my entire post in order to focus attention on the action, while I ask him to explain what my MOTIVATION was. He can't provide any motivation. It's impossible for him.)"


The likelihood of the desired outcome is taken into consideration when deciding whether to do something or not. If I was scum, I had little reason to believe I could actually switch the lynch, and no reason to do it even if I did. Both MZ and SlOosh were going to be lynched, since everyone found them both scummy regardless of the others' alignment. Sloosh was going to die no matter what. The net result after days 2 and 3 was going to be one dead sloosh and one dead MZ. Why would I put my neck out, and drag gobble into a last-minute vote that would make him pretty certainly the day 4 lynch, when I could just bus sloosh and gain towncred? There is no net gain for scum|fuba pushing the MZ mislynch. The net benefits of scum|mderg bussing sloosh are shown in the progression of the game up to this point.


False. It doesn't help if it forces your entire team to out themselves as scum in order to pull off the mislynch, and if sloosh is going to be lynched anyway (as he most certainly was). Scum play to win the game, not just to save one of their allies. It's the reason that bussing exists. Your play makes sense as scum that knew sloosh was going to be dead by the end of D3, mine does not.

Absolutely possible, but regardless of that fact it wouldn't make sense to pile both me and gobble onto MZ because then the entire scumteam has gone balls to the wall to delay a lynch by a single day. Even if gobble was there, which I have assumed he wasn't or he wouldn't have been modkilled for not voting, it wouldn't make sense for the scumteam to go to that extent to merely postpone a lynch. What does make sense is trying to gain as much from the inevitable loss of a teammate as possible, which is what you did.

On June 09 2014 01:37 fuba wrote:
Got to the computer lab, and apparently the building is closed until noon. Thanks for the warning, building -_-

I've come to the realization that there are some points that I brought up yesterday that no longer actually matter in my case against mderg. Gonna clarify what no longer matters, and summarize my case.

What no longer matters

- It doesn't matter whether or not scum felt they could divert the sloosh lynch on D2. That is irrelevant, because sloosh was absolutely going to be lynched on D3, then. We lynched sloosh's counterwagon the day after sloosh flipped scum, so why would MZ flipping town cause anyone's suspicions of sloosh to lessen? The answer is that they wouldn't. Therefore, sloosh was going to die, and scum would have tried to benefit from it the best they could.

- The roleblock doesn't matter. If anything, it indicates that mderg is more likely scum because he's claiming to be a VT who's been roleblocked, but he wasn't killed over alakaslam who shared that same status but was participating far less. And his reaction is further evidence against him, because there's no way anyone in the game thought that mderg was going to be medic'd over Amiko. This is a secondary point, however, so even if you disagree with me it doesn't detract from my main point.


Summary of my main point
Yesterday, Amiko and I got caught up discussing whether or not scum thought they could have diverted the lynch, but we weren't thinking about it correctly. The ultimate fact is that diverting the lynch would have been pointless even if it were possible. This is something that scum would have realized and acted on. They knew that MZ and sloosh were going to be lynched in some order on D2 and D3, so they took the opportunity to bus Sloosh on D2 because it is what would most benefit the scum team.

I, on the other hand, tried to switch the lynch to MZ. I've made it really clear why that is pointless as scum. Sloosh was going to be lynched on D3 even if I "succeeded", and even the way it played out in the thread would have required gobble swooping in at the last minute to secure the mislynch, which would have pretty much pinned him as the second scum even if he wasn't modkilled.

Scum control their roleblocks, scum control their death posts. What we know scum lost control of was the sloosh lynch, because sloosh was scum and he was lynched. This is a pivotal moment, and at this point in the game, with only one scum out of me and mderg, you can reduce the entire game to which of us acted as scum in this situation. Attempting to save sloosh would have gained scum nothing, but bussing him definitely helped them.

On June 10 2014 05:14 fuba wrote:

The fact that you refuse to admit that sloosh was absolutely guaranteed to be lynched the day after MZ is literally ridiculous. It absolutely confirms you as scum, because the only way you can possibly be town is if facts aren't true.

This is what you're saying scum thought would happen: Most of the thread agrees that sloosh is more suspicious than MZ -> MZ is mislynched -> HEY GUYS! PALMAR IS NOW THE SCUMMIEST PERSON IN THE THREAD!

No. That's absurd. Sqrt please let this fact burrow into your head, because I really don't know how you haven't been convinced by the incredibly solid case I've presented.


I've already said this can be ignored if people don't agree with me. But there's no reason to NK slam ahead of mderg, whatsoever. You say the only reason to kill you would have been that you looked townie. That is my exact point. You were doing townie things, while slam was not doing much of anything at all. The fact that he was killed over you is easily explained by the fact that scum rarely NK themselves.


Everything I've explained is easily derived from the information we KNOW FOR A FACT that scum would have had at the time. I've already spelled out why sloosh was guaranteed to be lynched from the scum perspective. In what world does Amiko stop pushing for a sloosh lynch after MZ flips town? MZ flipping town WOULD HAVE HAD NO IMPACT ON TOWN'S VIEW OF SLOOSH! Sloosh was either dead D2, or the following day. And you fucking knew it.

"Why would scum realize something before town? They only have extra information."

Perfect reasoning from "town" mderg.


Because it's a reasonable thing to do. If you can't agree that the sloosh lynch was a pivotal moment in the game, you're confirming what I said in the response above. You're denying undeniable facts because if you admit that they're true, then you have to admit that you're scum. So I repeat, again,: SQRT: Please actually think instead of just saying "Fuba scum gg", because this is the single best case I've ever made, and it's possible because I know without a shadow of a doubt that mderg is scum.

I've been trying to reword my case to make it clearer, but it's impossible to explain it any better than I already have. If you vote me over mderg, then you're agreeing with him that 1) scum have more information, but they can't/don't use that to their advantage, 2) scum's goal is to save their scumbuddies, not win the game, 3) town would have lynched Palmar over sloosh after mislynching MZ. Those are just off the top of my head, but they're pretty damn significant.