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You Only Shoot Once Mafia - Page 117

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Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
May 22 2014 11:29 GMT
#2321
And BlazingHand scum MVP. Poofter did well in trying to hold it together after his shot. He actually escaped pretty easily.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
May 22 2014 11:29 GMT
#2322
On May 22 2014 20:25 yamato77 wrote:
I offered to bury the hatchet and you insist on being obstinate.

Oh you mean insist on policy lynching people for awful play. Or policy shooting people for awful play? How is that a bad thing?
Ver
Profile Joined October 2008
United States2186 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-05-22 11:34:34
May 22 2014 11:30 GMT
#2323
I thought about doing player ratings this game to make the postgame more dramafilled but I’d probably have to score most people pretty low so not much point. I won’t be focusing too much on good plays/misplays here and instead just on my attempt at figuring out the game and letting people learn from my thought process. I'm not sure how easy it is to follow, so if things aren't clear let me know.

Analysis Methods


Wrote this middle of day 3 and fleshed it out later on but figured it should stand out more.

Why is everyone constantly asking questions, getting mad when others don’t answer their questions, and always wanting to have a conversation.

Winning as town isn’t about playing 20 questions, it’s about identifying people who are trying their hardest not to let you figure them out. Sometimes I feel people mistake this whole “lets have a conversation” or “answer my questions!!” as an ends whereas it is just a means, and usually not a very effective one. I haven’t asked a single question or looked at anyone’s responses to questions when analyzing whether someone is mafia yet. All of my intuition/analysis has come from looking at reactions to situations, and congruence of words/actions/persona. That’s it, just those two factors.

To be precise, I don’t feel it is very useful to put potential mafia on their guard, and it’s just distracting to townies to bombard them with questions (unless you are using questions as a subtle means of directing their focus onto something you want. This is great). I believe the best ways of figuring out mafia lie one step beyond their words. I don’t care about what they say, I care about the context, the framework. Because mafia pay all their attention to what they are saying, and not in the box in which they say it.. Focus on what others don’t.

Create an event or force them to react to a circumstance; this disarms them (as they don’t feel threatened). Ask Ace a question and he’ll give very townie sounding answers. Let Ace do what he wants, force thread development, and he reveals himself by seeing the right things and not taking any action on it. Ask Vayne a question and he’ll say whatever, but ignore him and he’ll tell on himself by complaining about scum trashing the thread then spam it up himself and only focus on irrelevancies.

Of course, some may have gotten good mileage out of this method in games I haven’t read. But if you are a big proponent of conversations and question answering I want you to carefully look at your best mafia reads and figure out exactly how you drew those conclusions. How much does question answering factor in? I feel questions have much, much more power in live games; in forum mafia there’s an inevitable filter (no matter if it is a “real time conversation”) that really detracts from its usefulness.

In fact, I feel questions/conversations best serve mafia actually because proper mafia play relies on planting an idea in the mind of a townie, then letting them push their idea, fail, and take the blame for it while you sit on the sidelines and laugh. Questions are the best way to subtly implant that kind of idea (whereas mafia tend to react to questions more defensively inside their head and get more prepared, making it tricky to read into their answers). Ace does this very well for example.

For the future, try making provocative statements and thread situations instead of relying on sissy questions to create useful reactions and disjoint mafia personas.



Analysis/Writeup:

Day 1


-Caller nukes immediately after day start. I’d expect him to be a little more subtle. I feel like this won’t provoke mafia much, so its information gathering utility is limited. He must be traitor or Townie though, this is a pointless mafia move. It’s definitely possible that he’s traitor, trying to use this to figure mafia out, but if he was mafia he’d wait to use the nuke to an opportune moment to help his team, not deploy it randomly at the start.

-VisceraEyes is cleared because he instantly reacted to Caller’s nuke by voting Palmar to stop a reflex vigi revenge shot. First, only a townie’s mind would instantaneously think and do that. Second, as it is very unlikely Caller is mafia VE has no motivation to do this at all as mafia. Nice, subtle play from him. Wonder if anyone will pick up on it.

-The subtle way Sandro says that Foolishness is mafia because he[sandroba] is town gives me a very strong town feeling . Mafia just don’t think nor word it like that. Of course that doesn’t mean that Foolishness is mafia; I don’t really feel any indication of that yet. But another townie nailed.

-The SnB case is the first thing that gains traction, as lynching Caller would be rather dumb (unlikely mafia, learn very little). I think it’s possible that he’s mafia but I’m not sure whether it’s the best lynch. Frankly I don’t have any surefire hits on mafia yet but I’d probably pick some random person blending in over Snb. He feels very different than in Sicilian (where he was mafia), and while that’s certainly no guaranteed sign of town, it makes me much less eager to lynch him.

-Update: Austin is likely town and has a very strong case on Oats:

On April 28 2014 09:06 austinmcc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 28 2014 08:49 Oatsmaster wrote:
well what the fuck.
##unvote
##vote Slam

The reason I didnt talk about nuke+caller+palmar is that happened fucking long ago and it did have an impact on my read, ie geript town. Austin, you know when town does stupid shit it makes them look like scum but when they stop their stupid shit it doesnt make them look like scum? I dont know if you know how to play, but reads change based on new info.

Meh i need more time to figure out why the fuck caller instantly shoots a fake nuke because its not for the lulz but I think that Palmar's actions are of angry town rather than angry scum. Angry scum will be angrier and less inclined to play the game than palmar was.
You said geript looked town for dropping his policy lynch. You didn't MENTION caller, palmar, the nuke, ANYTHING beyond geript just dropping his policy lynch.

Show nested quote +
On April 28 2014 01:11 Oatsmaster wrote:
man wtf yamato why are you derailing a lynch and not proposing anything else you useless bastard.
For the record, I am totes fine with SnB lynch and I now think that geript is not scum because he dropped his policy lynch. Which he had arguably more reason to continue with
##unvote
##vote SnB

Im going to sleep, kill scum guyys pls.
That doesn't read like "new info concerning Palmar, caller, the nuke changed my mind." Moreover, geript changed his vote because of cases on SnB, especially Koshi's case (geript had koshi super mafia, was voting caller, then super liked koshi's case to the point that koshi because town and he voted snb). Geript's unvote of caller had little/nothing to do with Palmar/caller, more to do with Koshi/SnB, and so I'm particularly curious how that stuff had an impact on your geript read.


Austin has reinforced his case further and I like it even more. Very strong, almost ironclad. Oat’s early posts were fine but Austin has caught him in a logic gap and proved he just made up reasons. I think it’s still possible SnB is mafia but it’s much less likely than Oats. If I was town this game I’d just sheep Austin here. I’m going to pay close attention to people who ignore this or try to push it aside and focus on SnB.

-Prp triggered my mafia proximity mine by posting a player list of activity (trying to blend in) and some other directionless posts. I still have yet to read a post by Gumshoe, Alakaslam, tehpoofter, RoL, or OdinofPergo (for varying reasons). I feel mafia is concentrated in the semi-active players right now and are not taking heavy stances either way.


Blazinghand …makes me feel very questionable about him. I can’t explain why yet though. This post just doesn’t fit and is way too heavily debate oriented. Why does he reply like that? Traitor or mafia is likely. Also very bizarre how he hard defends Foolishness so early on. Not sure what to make of it.

-Yamato threatens to shoot people if they don’t get off SnB. Good idea, I like this play whether he has a gun or not: knowing Yamato its pretty likely he does. Pity Palmar wasted his pardon (probably town because of it though).

Yamato gets shot by Alakaslam, who I have been carefully avoiding reading his posts but naively assuming is town because of his energy. Even more likely is town here because that shot is in full congruence with his energy. Also big WTF. Terrible panic move. Take a moment breathe and think man.

On April 28 2014 05:05 prplhz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 28 2014 04:59 Caller wrote:
that post seems scummy. why? too bad

##unvote

##vote: prplhz


durr hurr hurr durr. hurr? durrrrr

##unvote

##vote: prplhz


no wait i am pardoned and cannot be lynched today NICE READING THE THREAD MORON


hahahaha. Okay that cements Caller as town I think. People have talked about Callers “I’m Caller I can get away with anything act” but when he does that as mafia I always feel that he’s holding something back. Here I don’t feel he is (see above, lol).

-Ace correctly realizes the rather limp and effortless SnB wagon is a bad lynch but then doesn’t do much of anything about it. ????

If he was town I feel he’d be putting a stop to this with a lot more force than he currently is, but I can’t find him mafia (yet) for this as my assumptions on his behavior may not be correct (he may just have legitimately no time/energy, he did warn me before playing). I’ve definitely misread people before because I believed they had enough information to make a certain action and didn’t.

-As for the SnB lynch itself, there’s multiple bandwagoners, little resistance to it and the case is not that strong. Bad Lynch, get off asap. I certainly could be wrong though, and mafia are just horribly unorganized, but I think odds are heavily against this being a correct lynch.

With maybe one exception: I also really don’t like how Geript is sheeping the SnB case, feels like a mafia could be jumping on the bandwagon. I’ve never seen him play before, and I don’t detect any incongruencies, but he’s sheeping SnB and fighting against Austin over Oats. Maybe I’m overestimating how clear that Austin case looks though. Definitely could be mafia.

Night Reflections:

Terrible lynch, no surprises. Odd thing here is I don’t feel mafia had much of a hand in this (too little fighting, felt no manipulations in the thread atmosphere), which is more bizarre when I think that Oats is almost certainly mafia thanks to Austin’s excellent case. My calibration for this may just be off though as I haven’t played or coached for awhile.

In the meantime, my eye is on the people skirting by and not exposing themselves: In no particular order, prplhz, tehpoofter, Gumshoe, Ace, WoS, Justanothertownie, Vayne, RoL, Koshi, Cephiro.




Day 2:


Glad mafia shot Geript here. Guess I was wrong about him. Makes my nighttime reflection seem more accurate though: a townie led mislynch and a probable mafia 2nd candidate who didn’t gain traction with little mafia interference. That requires many eager townies to start and jump on the bandwagon, which also makes me think Foolishness is more likely innocent.

-Everyone forgot about Vayne and he seems keen on keeping things that way. Right now my mental image of this game is a bunch of townies holding hands in a circle playing Baccarat while the mafia sit behind them in the shadows smoking cigars and throwing chips in the center occasionally. I don’t know if that makes sense to anyone; I try to represent my subconscious murky thoughts with pictures often and find it gives me a clear picture of things. VA, prplhz, and Ace fit this mold perfectly.

It’s amazing how people let Ace get away with when he’s mafia, even if he’s lazy or short on time as in this game, when as town he gets so much unwarranted heat no matter what he does. It should be blatantly obvious he doesn’t care about what’s going on at this point. I guess it’s not absolutely certain that he’s mafia yet, but looking pretty bad.

prplhz seems much more content to just sit around today. Maybe mafia boy.
prplhz looking bad and has hidden info (*upon rereading this later in the game, I forgot why I said that though). He fits the profile too (didn’t meddle too much in day 1 lynch, bad vote). On the other hand he voted for Oats and has correctly seen a potential mistake by Ace so I’m not sure. Backburner for now.

-Justanothertownie is being way too hesitant with his shot and is trying to get the okay from other people. Either he has a subservient personality, has no confidence in himself, or he’s mafia trying to get someone else to blame.

-Blazinghand is not helping himself. I feel he’s using his fake cockiness thing as a means to cover something up because he keeps inserting it artificially (contrast with how ace always does it, much more natural), which means he has a role and something to hide. Highly likely bad guy. It’s hard to explain; he is both fearless but doesn’t push as far as his convictions would suggest.

As I said above, I often create mental images of people or day situations to help represent my intuition. In this case I see BH putting on a front, with his “persona” being careful to look flagrant but actually making sure to toe the line, and being controlled by a shadow puppeteer guffawing in the background. In short, bad guy. More precisely, I don’t feel he’s representing/expressing himself properly, with the underlying reasoning being to avoid drawing attention.

-Ace’s activity is making it harder to judge than normal. As mafia Ace is brilliant at actively misdirecting the town, but here he’s taking a backseat. Still, I can’t see a town Ace so utterly uninvested in the lynches. Ace as town always makes a large impact and focuses on the key issues, but here he’s thrown away his vote twice. Thus I’m forced to conclude that even though his style has changed and he’s not manipulating town focus towards a mafia advantage that much, he’s still mafia.

On April 30 2014 00:14 Caller wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 29 2014 12:17 VayneAuthority wrote:
didnt even know there was vanilla town in this game, what a scrub

lol are you guys fucking kidding me

the guy just softed a blue claim, and there isnt a bomb or meth dealer or w/e role. There's only two reasons why you would do this: either you're a fucking retard that wants to get killed by mafia, or you're actually mafia.

i tend to think better of humanity than to assume everybody is a fucking retard, so VA claim, it's out in the open anyways.

##vote: VayneAuthority


Caller finally delivers. Very strong argument.

-Ok Tehpoofter basically jumps in the thread and claims mafia. First he prioritizes talking about his town reads instead of his mafia ones, as though he fears retaliation for calling folks mafia. What kind of priority is this? Though with people like Alakaslam waltzing around you don’t even have to accuse someone as mafia to get shot back at.

In his next big post he agrees with Austin’s Oats case but then spends the bulk space of his post talking about koshi instead. Ok maybe he’s just full of himself.

On April 30 2014 11:33 Tehpoofter wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 30 2014 09:36 Oatsmaster wrote:
So why are only the scummy people voting for me poof? If im so super scum and austins case is based on reality then I should get wrecked right? Funny that its not happening. Maybe its because his case is not right. Which begs the question, what exactly are you sheeping? Is this innocent ignorence or intentional malice?


You only have one vote on you in gumshoe atm. Austin I know would vote you in a heartbeat. I think it is odd more people aren't wanting to vote on you too lynch there has been quite a few new cases brought up today on people who didn't get much talk day one. My koshi case, BH, RoL to name a few. I am of course partial to my own case I liked Foolishness's on RoL too. My only reservation on you Oats is that I've read you incorrectly in the two games we played in (Titanic and Catastophe) both times I called you wrong.

I also don't like this thing where people don't really defend themselves against an accusation. Koshi just did his whole "I'm town guys for the realz" and RoL just put out a small 1 line defense then kinda sucked up to Foolishness: + Show Spoiler +
On April 30 2014 08:34 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Suck it phil. Your argument collapsed on top of itself. You talk about how I am lazy and apathetic and then say that after I sheeped you I pretended to draw the same conclusion. The real reason was because I just went WOOOO VOTE SNB, then went and did other things, then eventually came back and read it when I stopped being lazy.

On April 30 2014 08:49 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
DOES THAT MEAN YOU TAKE IT BACK?!

On April 30 2014 08:49 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
TUNNEL BUDDIES 4 LYFE?


I need more than that like stand up and fight if you're town if you're scum feel free to continue as is.

##Vote: RebirthOfLeGenD

Voting you but Koshi I'm still shooting you until further notice.

@JAT where are you on WoS?


@Slam I might regret this but what are your reads atm? If you had another shot where would you be pointing your gun?

@Odin/Ace where you at? How do you guys feel about RoL? (Austin you can answer as well)

7


This post smells so bad even McDonalds couldn’t sell it. More than just full of himself. Look at how he brings up the hot topic Oats, but then subtly shifts away from talking about him and provides a convenient uncertainty part to avoid voting while still agreeing with Austin, then magically turns to Koshi again (who’s probably townie given how hard poofter is gunning for him). It’s like a politician telling ultra right wing bible thumpers that he agrees that guns are satan’s toys, but then saying maybe I’m not right, I was wrong before, so he can go hunting with the NRA that night. I’m tired and I don’t even know if this makes sense but I hope so.

Update: Wait, poofter seriously shot Koshi? The buildup to this is ridiculous. Way too many “ticktocks” or whatever he did. His excessive warnings are totally incongruent and it feels, along with the post I quoted above, that he’s trying to do it without getting blamed, which is exactly what I’d think a mafia would do. I’m glad others are pointing this out. diediedie

This tehpoofter shot was a farce on a guaranteed townie, we have a confirmed town martyr here in Odin too. I’d hope somebody, particularly that vacillating JAT, shows tehpoofter the might of the Law for his transgressions, but I won’t get my hopes up. If he doesn’t shoot something this obvious maybe he’s scum or just lying about his gun?

I had been subconsciously avoiding OdinofPergo’s posts since his grammar made my mind unable to parse what he was saying and strip it down for pattern recognition. But this post right here is golden:

On May 01 2014 07:45 OdinOfPergo wrote:
Cephiro -

This is important.
You should listen very closely and so should EVERYONE else.

Show nested quote +
On May 01 2014 07:42 Cephiro wrote:
Ok read up on the shot and the things that happened after.

Respect to poofter for taking the shot. Complaints because it would have been much better to shoot Oats (whom at least I, and probably many others agree that would've been a much more certain pick for scum), and lynch Koshi.

For those who really think I am traitor... pls, did you read my post at all? Or are you just stupid?



Why the FUCK would the SCUM KOSHI ORDER THE CLAIMED TOWN MARTYR to GTFO off HIM 10 SECONDS after I CLAIMED.

Scum DO NOT EVER reply to "Hey Koshi, I believe you are town so much that I am literally willing to die in your place for the chance to prove it." with "FUCK THIS GET YOUR MARTYR OFF ME"

There is seriously no fucking way he's scum and replies like that.


-Another townie shown:

On April 30 2014 08:34 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Suck it phil. Your argument collapsed on top of itself. You talk about how I am lazy and apathetic and then say that after I sheeped you I pretended to draw the same conclusion. The real reason was because I just went WOOOO VOTE SNB, then went and did other things, then eventually came back and read it when I stopped being lazy.


Mafia Rol would never write this. Everything about it, from the specific language, to the concise wording of the first two sentences, and open admission of interest/feelings scream Town.

--cephiro and tehpoofter both believe that there are 5 mafia. Why? There is no way for town to know that either way, nor should they assume it considering to their knowledge (as of day 2) mafia have 2 night kills. This is another extremely suspicious mark against them. I’m totally undecided on Cephiro, this makes him look mafia too, but poofter is almost certainly mafia with this as the cherry on top.

I like the Oats lynch, things are on the right track finally. This lack of resistance is really bizarre and is making me second guess myself a bit. However I think on the whole it fits my analysis of the limited mafia interference in day 1: mafia are definitely sitting in the “fringe” group. Present, maybe active, but not heavily influencing the game.



Night 2:

At this point I told Hapa my bad guy list:

BH, Ace, Vayne, Tehpoofter.
I’m nowhere near certain on the last person, but JAT, Gumshoe, and maybe Cephiro/prplhz are all possibilities. I suppose Palmar is “possibly mafia” but his play has been fully congruent. I’m pretty confident overall, but just knowing my general accuracy its likely one may be wrong, but at least 3 are very likely correct.

Cases are:

BH- Incongruent persona.
Ace- Sees bad play, doesn’t seem to care. Votes are completely irrelevant.
-Tehpoofter. That buildup to his shot and the quoted post above….Plus he thinks there are 5 mafia which is not logical with 2 NKs.

-I don’t think I’ve verbalized my intuition fully on Vayne so here goes: Terrible filter, fits mafia profile (deduced from atmosphere/limited interference in lynches) exactly. Ever present but barely playing. Constantly complains about the thread quality but spends all of his time talking about blue roles and irrelevant nonsense, which is a massive incongruency. Caller’s point quoted above is also very good.

I want to point out, as possibly the biggest proponent/originator of meta reads here, the key is you gotta know when they apply. Ace’s meta says he isn’t town, but also that he isn’t mafia. VA’s play is the exact opposite of how he was in Sicilian (offensive, direct, blatant) but I feel he is mafia in both.

Does this mean meta is useless? Certainly not. You just have to know what factors take priority in each situation. Vayne’s massive incongruencies matter a hell of a lot more here than whether his persona matches up from Sicilian. Meta is better for confirming similar behavior: VE is acting and arguing with the same gusto/freespirited reasoning like he usually does as town. On the other hand, it’s not as useful for excluding a result based on stark contrast: Ace is not town even though he’s playing so different than his usual mafia game.





Day 3:

I didn’t want to overload Day 2, but I agreed with Foolishness’s assessment on the mafia non-interference of day 1 and that doesn’t detract from the strong possibility of SnB town/Oats mafia. A lot of people were saying this was a logic gap but I don’t think so: it was just a result of mafia inactivity and town propelled lynches; Oats being mafia and SnB town doesn’t mean there was inevitable agenda pushing. People aren’t reading properly. In short, a crappy case on Foolishness.

Why is everyone so hung up on this mason group? Who cares what its produced. Don’t demand for it to produce anything stupendous. If it does, awesome, otherwise focus on the important things (like thread atmosphere, roles the mafia are trying to fit into) and don’t get distracted. I don’t know why Foolishness is stubborn about releasing info but it really doesn’t matter, so why fret about it.

Cephiro coming out with a difference check on Alakaslam/BH clears a lot. BH should be the obvious lynch here, and this likely puts Cephiro on the good guy side too. There’s good incentive for mafia to fake parity cop, but I don’t think Cephiro would fit that possibility. The way Foolishness turns on Blazinghand instantly is quite funny. I think people were linking BH/Foolishness too much in their minds when in actuality all the talk that created this “link” started from BH and Foolishness mostly ignored him.

It already has brought RoL into the game and he’s finally making quality posts.

BH also dug his grave further by attacking Cephiro immediately with certainty. Town would be heavily uncertain here, since Slam or Cephiro could be mafia but BH leaps right on the attack. Diediedie!

WoS and JAT also correctly pointed out another really bad hand-wringing politician post by tehpoofter.

Also somebody shoot Gumshoe already, this inactivity is completely unacceptable. Only 2 vigi shots so far and none on the guy who is skirting by with the absolute minimum. I haven’t even read any of his posts yet that didn’t include a useless apology: he needs to die as either alignment. Don’t need to bother wasting a lynch on him.




Day 4:


On May 07 2014 11:23 Ace wrote:
It's as if you don't think that if Foolishness is Town, he can have varying degrees of who he thinks is scummy, which would obviously be reflected in the effort level of cases he makes. Unbelievable.


Exactly right. Which is why Ace is mafia! I’m totally certain at this point. He draws the correct conclusions but does not do anything with them. He should be stopping this Foolishness mislynch but doesn’t care. Look for these incongruencies between words and actions!

This Foolishness lynch is terrible on several levels to me. However, I may be unique here since I know his history much better than most. This post here, fresh in the BH controversy, is very revealing as town to me. Strong, congruent, responsible, everything you could want. His posts in general haven't been bad, just not up to usual town foolishness standard (or misinterpreted/misread, like his analysis of the day 1 votes/atmosphere). But very different than mafia foolishness.

My view of the difference between Foolishness’s town and mafia game is twofold: first, as mafia he makes more generalized posts which argue points, not suspects. In short, he’s more debate oriented. Secondly, as mafia he tries to to frame some townie who looks suspicious for doing stupid stuff or leaving holes in his behavior. As town he will focus much more heavily on “people skirting by” and try to bring attention to them. I also liked how he took full responsibility for the SnB mislynch and immediately turned on BH after the cop check (which was pretty hilarious). Must have caught BH totally off guard.

You can say what you’d like about Foolishness being mafia because he gave up too easily or because his cases are bad but I feel like he fits much more into his townie frame because of where his focus is. Any attack of him being wrong this game more than his excellent history should indicate can be explained because he’s frustrated (just like in the shadow game) of being constantly hounded for dumb reasons and its affecting his play very negatively.

That’s another thing to reflect on: if you’re town, be careful how much you push someone who can be a key contributor if you aren’t certain they’re mafia. If you’re wrong and constantly attack someone all game, you will likely have screwed with their play and lowered their impact. The games where I did my worst as town was when I was attacked all game and I couldn’t focus on finding bad guys. In short, don’t think purely from the lens of figuring things out for yourself, but also on how you are affecting other people’s play if you aren’t certain but still try to bully them around.

WoS pushing Foolishness here is not good play, but he’s doing it in a townie way and showing doubts in the right ways so I think he’s town.

Foolishness giving up here is dumb because people will interpret it the wrong way and fighting a bit more could have easily saved his life, but I don’t think that action itself reflects on his alignment, merely on his annoyance level. JAT is tunneling so ridiculously hard here to the obliviousness of everything else that makes me think he might be the last mafia (it’s probably either him or gumshoe, small chance of prplhz). He correctly points out very bad posts by both Vayne and poofter but takes no action on it despite claiming he has a shot then continues to tunnel Foolishness. Not sure if he would have pointed those posts out at all as mafia or not. Probably wouldn’t have if they are buddies, but letting him get away with this crappy lynch feels like robbery.



Day 5:



Palmar’s reasoning at some points is so silly but also comes from a fair place that he is almost certainly town. Now, some might ask why can’t he be mafia trying to get people to use that exact reasoning to dismiss his guilt? Mafia will do anything they feel like if they can get away with it. But I believe they always leave traces, like VA, and Palmar’s “play” has been totally congruent and always coming from the same place.

Judging from reading the atmosphere, the mafia team appears to be trying to actively bus each other and utilize the town’s total confusion against each other. Not a bad idea, but relies a lot on good execution and keeping consistency since you are sacrificing numbers for it probably.

Ace flips mafia. No surprise here, given his total lack of resistance I’m guessing he’s trying to take all the heat on himself and off his allies. Also, one more reason for JAT looking like a possible last mafia if Gumshoe is not, thanks to his bizarre/semi-incongruent behavior where he vacillated in shooting Ace or Caller kind of like poofter did, though not to nearly the same degree. But that could be just more in a string of bad luck. I don’t have an ironclad case here, but it’s one of Gumshoe/JAT I feel. JAT has some things that point him to being townie (correct stances on day 2/3 for example) and at times looks like he's using townie reasoning, so I could go either way here. Gumshoe just needs to die no matter what, as a host I'm embarrassed for letting him in.




Day 6


Marv comes in and looks really townie and energetic. I had my doubts on prplhz at a few points and Marv seems to have cleared them. I hate having late replacements for this reason but modkilling always seems a worse evil.

I talked to Hapa and confirmed Gumshoe/Vayne/Poofter as the last mafia. Huge surprise there... I seriously cannot believe nobody shot him. The noflip dayvigis are perfect for cases like him: who cares what Gumshoe flips. I didn’t read any of his posts even but you can’t let a cancer like that infect your town.


Future Days: I don’t really have much more to say, I feel like the first 3 days had all the information needed. Town did well in cleaning up but mafia dropped the ball on so many levels. Missed 2 free wins, only got off 1 day vigi shot (the game is specifically designed for them to have to take the risk and shoot). If mafia just was proactive at all this game they would have had an easier time; I guess this is another example where a struggling town lured mafia into a false sense of complacency. Some of these later lynches would not have nearly been so easy for town if poofter and vayne and gumshoe had just manned up, taken direct stances, implanted their desired views in a few townies, and forced mislynches. On the other hand, big redemption by Wos/JAT after some of the rough earlier days. VE and Palmar also looked townie enough at key points which seemed to be all that mattered.

If anyone has questions please ask away.
Liquipedia
WaveofShadow
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Canada31494 Posts
May 22 2014 11:46 GMT
#2324
Jesus Ver.
/ bowdown

I really wish there was analysis like this after every game. Looking back through what you wrote I realize what truly little impact I actually had on this game. I guess I felt better about my reads in my mind but considering it took me days to come up with most of everything and you had it almost all by D1 or 2....

So much I obviously still need to work on. Really appreciate this.
twitch.tv/waveofshadow ||| Winner of AHGL's So You Think You Can Cast! ||| Juicy Dad for lyfe ||| 'idk i get a kick out of stupid things' - Jarms Yarng
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
May 22 2014 12:09 GMT
#2325
Thx for the hosting Hapa/Ver. Good game. Great day to day hosting by Hapa.
I had a good night of sleep.
VisceraEyes
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States21170 Posts
May 22 2014 12:34 GMT
#2326
On May 22 2014 20:46 WaveofShadow wrote:
Jesus Ver.
/ bowdown

I really wish there was analysis like this after every game. Looking back through what you wrote I realize what truly little impact I actually had on this game. I guess I felt better about my reads in my mind but considering it took me days to come up with most of everything and you had it almost all by D1 or 2....

So much I obviously still need to work on. Really appreciate this.

This, minus the bit about realizing how little imact I had on the game - I'm fully aware how little I /actually/ did. I also really appreciated the write-up and I hope everyone reads the whole thing. It's a fantastic read.
if I had to describe his playstyle, it'd be a coked up rabbit with the attention of a goldfish injecting caffeine into himself directly through an IV drip. it's like a reel of random animated shorts where things just blow up randomly
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
May 22 2014 13:07 GMT
#2327
I realized a while ago playing "obviously scummy" is actually the best way to survive around here. Trying to engage people in thought exercises when I'm Town leads to getting lynched for being suspicious.

I threw 2 votes away and didn't even bother to stop both Town mislynches like Ver said, but no one caught on. I didn't sweat prp's comment because Caller and Alakslam's actions weren't the same. Would have been a pointless argument too. Good write up though. I'm guessing the same reasoning Ver used is how BH guessed 3 of us on Day 1.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
Palmar
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Iceland22632 Posts
May 22 2014 13:47 GMT
#2328
Hey I caught on!

On May 06 2014 18:40 Palmar wrote:
It doesn't matter what Foolishness' (or my) alignment is when it comes to Ace.

If Foolishness is town, Ace knows this is a train wreck and doesn't care about it.

Hell, let's assume I'm confused scum and will flip mafia, even that wouldn't help Ace's case, just make it look worse that he's not pushing a good lynch better.


And you get away with playing obviously scummy because you are (to many players) scummy as town anyway. I have no idea really how to tell the two apart with you, when with others it's far easier. (I'm prplhz reader no1 around these parts).
Computer says mafia
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
May 22 2014 15:07 GMT
#2329
On May 22 2014 22:47 Palmar wrote:
Hey I caught on!


[image loading]
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
justanothertownie
Profile Joined July 2013
16318 Posts
May 22 2014 15:28 GMT
#2330
Impressive analysis. Ver takes a totally different angle than most other people it seems. Explains the post restriction. I still disagree about the style complaints but you can't deny how he caught most mafia really early.
ALTHOUGH he was suspicious of me. Noone in this game was ever suspicious of me after day1. And correctly so. I was so clearly town it doesn't get any more obvious.
Crossfire99
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1529 Posts
May 22 2014 15:45 GMT
#2331
Why was prplhz replaced so late? I always was under the impression that replacements and should be done ASAP if needed otherwise they "ruin" the game. I didn't follow the game, but day 6 seems extremely late and marv seems to have done a lot of good for the town, so...Idk what I'm saying now. I'm just really curious as to the reasoning for a day 6 replacement as opposed to a modkill, since I've seen people take issue with late replacements.
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36161 Posts
May 22 2014 15:46 GMT
#2332
it was day 5 and ace got lynched day 6, Ver kinda transposed those 2.
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-05-22 16:06:25
May 22 2014 15:47 GMT
#2333
On May 23 2014 00:45 Crossfire99 wrote:
Why was prplhz replaced so late? I always was under the impression that replacements and should be done ASAP if needed otherwise they "ruin" the game. I didn't follow the game, but day 6 seems extremely late and marv seems to have done a lot of good for the town, so...Idk what I'm saying now. I'm just really curious as to the reasoning for a day 6 replacement as opposed to a modkill, since I've seen people take issue with late replacements.


He was replaced within 24 hours of prplhz's TL Ban.

As far as why he was replaced late in the game - it was just a very weird situation. Prplhz wasn't a typical lurker, and only really couldn't play due to the TL Ban. Also, modkilling Prplhz would have pretty much ended the game in a scum victory on the spot, which would be a pretty disappointing end to things.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36161 Posts
May 22 2014 15:48 GMT
#2334
that wasn't his question though
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
justanothertownie
Profile Joined July 2013
16318 Posts
May 22 2014 15:49 GMT
#2335
On May 23 2014 00:45 Crossfire99 wrote:
Why was prplhz replaced so late? I always was under the impression that replacements and should be done ASAP if needed otherwise they "ruin" the game. I didn't follow the game, but day 6 seems extremely late and marv seems to have done a lot of good for the town, so...Idk what I'm saying now. I'm just really curious as to the reasoning for a day 6 replacement as opposed to a modkill, since I've seen people take issue with late replacements.

I even pmed Hapa that I would be mad if I was scum when that happened. ^_^
The problem was that prplhz got tempbanned.
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
May 22 2014 16:02 GMT
#2336
If he didn't replace prp game would have ended in Scum victory. It worked out for everyone involved.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
May 22 2014 16:04 GMT
#2337
Why are 5 mafia not logical with 2 NK?
I had a good night of sleep.
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
May 22 2014 16:06 GMT
#2338
On May 23 2014 00:48 marvellosity wrote:
that wasn't his question though


Whoops. Edited.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
justanothertownie
Profile Joined July 2013
16318 Posts
May 22 2014 16:06 GMT
#2339
On May 23 2014 01:04 Koshi wrote:
Why are 5 mafia not logical with 2 NK?

Good question. Especially since we knew nothing about how KP worked. It could be reduced when the # of mafia was reduced.
Keirathi
Profile Joined May 2012
United States4679 Posts
May 22 2014 18:19 GMT
#2340
GG everyone! I really liked the game analysis.

However, I really hate the whole "you're playing the game wrong. my way is the right way" spiel.
My dear friend if I have gone pants on head, you have gone socks on ears!!! -ShiaoPi
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