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Newbie Mini Mafia LV - Page 3

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
May 08 2014 07:30 GMT
#1161
On May 08 2014 11:57 Epishade wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2014 10:45 mtamburini wrote:
I think shooting tonight to give us a ML tomorrow if I hit correctly might be the best idea. I would like everyone to build a case on why I shouldnt shoot them and 2 people I should shoot.


You're giving us HOMEWORK!?!

I'm doing a lot of digging here to figure out the game. My reads haven't always been the best, but I've retracted them whenever I admitted fault. I hope that's a good enough reason not to shoot me.

Here are my thoughts on the current situation though.

Eden really wants Yellow dead. I've looked up the interactions that Yellow and Drav have had so far and, from what I can tell, they don't look too well like mafia partners. I urge you to look through their filters too and come to your own conclusion. Yellow and Drav both have each other as suspicious, and Yellow also votes for Drav before switching his vote to Eden.

I think Yellow made a weak case to not vote for Drav just because he didn't like Eden, and it's being interpreted as him deflecting from his mafia partner. The only reason he didn't vote for Drav is because Eden voted for Drav and Yellow thinks that Eden is scum.

I don't think Yellow's suspicion on Eden is particularly warranted, but that's the reason he voted for dfs as I see it.

Apart from Yellow, there's Ahs, who I think is a better target.

I looked through the filter between Drav and Ahs and came up with some thoughts.

Ahs doesn't talk all that much about Drav in his filter. Every mention of Drav is either asking why Meat voted for her (Drav's a girl I guess?), and this:

Show nested quote +
On May 08 2014 01:44 ahswtini wrote:
Would like to see a post from dravenor with her suspicions. I know she's online...


This is the only conversation that ahswtini attempts to initiate with Drav. I would think a mafia mistake is not having enough conversation with your partners, right? Since you know what your team is thinking, you don't really need to converse with each other to figure out their thought process. I think that's what happened here, is that ahswtini was attempting to talk a bit to Drav to add to the conversation between the two to make them seem less mafia-like.

Now, if you look at Drav's filter, and search through all the instances she mentions ahswtini, you can see that she's been kind of questioning his actions throughout the game, but still giving him a townread, except for one time where she lists him as scum in her reads for some reason idk.

It'd be a pain to go through and quote everything because Drav's posts are very long, so I'm just going to paste everything I can find about ahswtini that Drav mentions (in chronological order):

+ Show Spoiler +
What does everyone think of ahswtini at the moment? I think he made some good points, but I also think he shouldn't have voted Meat because he wasn't around to defend himself or contribute. Sure he hasn't been a great contributer so far, but we need to give him a chance. Why was ahswtini so desperate to have him lynched day 1? I don't see him having anything to hide by voting Meat, that wouldn't make sense, right?
--------------
I'm not sure what to think of tamb; ofc this is mostly because of what other people have already suspected of him - this hasn't changed, nor have my views on Epishade. ahswtini and MM1 have been laying it low this game, but I am not entirely convinced they're mafia. They may look suspicious but they haven't done enough to arouse my interest as possible mafia just yet. I think my top scumreads at the moment are Epishade and sqrt. I am on the fence with bunnies (and Yell0w -still) at the moment, her coming out and claiming she has a role all of a sudden and that she was blocked doesn't sound quite right to me. I already expressed suspicion of her in the beginning, withdrew it, and now it is building again. Is it possible she is mafia and shot to kill one of us, but someone roleblocked her? And if there is a sk (who isn't tamb), they were the one who possibly killed Amiko? I don't really know if that can happen in this game. If so, whoever roleblocked bunnies would surely have presented a case against her as to why she is mafia, and surely would have voted to lynch her? Thus far there has not been any substantial case claiming her to be mafia. So I guess by that reasoning, it makes sense that bunnies is town. It also doesn't make sense that a sk would kill Amiko on N1 since he was providing the most information. Unless the sk knew he was onto something and had something to hide? Is it possible that tamb IS infact sk and shot Amiko, then claimed to be gunning for Yell0w? A pretty clever ploy if you ask me.
--------------
Don't have much of an opinion on yet, but probably town: ritoky, Meat, dfs, ahswtini
--------------
I actually agree. I think Meat is town.
I think dfs is town.
I think bunnies might be town.
I think tamb is town.

I think Epishade is scum.
I think Eden might be scum.
I think ahs might be scum.
I think Yell0w might be scum.
--------------
ahswtini if you knew how long it took me to write my blogs you would know why it has taken me so long to post after getting home i don't really see what is so mafia about ahs (and myself either infact) - he hasn't been interacting a lot, sure, and he hasn't been putting pressure on anyone, but maybe he is busy too? I dunno, I only suspected him in the first place because a lot of you seemed to be making short cases against him, reading into them. But I'm still not entirely sure. 50:50.
--------------
On May 08 2014 05:16 dravernor wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2014 05:11 ahswtini wrote:
Ok I'm unvoting for now.

On May 08 2014 05:02 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
i explained already ahs, on why i switched my vote to drav....

The way lynch system works is that both drav and I are tied at 3 votes, drav is going to come online vote for me in order to save herself, even though she thinks im town. Then if i switch my vote to drav, i'll still be the one getting lynched. Also ahs, if you believe that both dfs and i are devo scum as you posted earlier, then switch your vote to dfs... Its pretty clear that i'm not going to get lynched.

Sorry I didn't notice you'd voted for drav, I just saw you place two town on that list.

Again, Mafia were certain that mtamburini was going to shoot yellow tonight. They let it go through because it would have lost us the game immediately if it had actually gone through. If yellow was Mafia, I don't see why his buddies would just let him die. If, as Mafia I wanted to keep scum yellow alive, I would have blocked and killed mtamburini last night.

That actually makes a lot of sense. Hmm.



Drav has that reply to Ahs at the end there (second to last post in the spoiler) based on what he was asking her from the above quote. This is their only interaction with each other and in it, Drav reaffirms his townieness.

I think Ahs is a better shot than Yellow.

Then, idk Meat I guess?

Try not to shoot Eden though.

Ok now that I'm actually awake, I want to make a post about this.

First of all, I didn't find drav suspicious at all during the first two days. Also, I'm friends with her outside of the game, and didn't want to put pressure on her if I wasn't certain of her guilt. I know it's the wrong mindset to have and I'm sorry.

On May 08 2014 01:44 ahswtini wrote:
Would like to see a post from dravenor with her suspicions. I know she's online...

Least you could do is look at this post in context. She hadn't made a post in roughly 20 hours when I asked for her thoughts. At this stage, my list of suspects was rapidly narrowing down, and she was one of them. My play this game has been pretty post-light, and there are a lot of people I haven't had conversations with.

I can't speak for why she would make posts that give a town read. But hey, look at it this way, I've been on people's lists all the way through the game. At most points I think it's safe to say I was more likely to be lynched than she was. Now read her posts in the scenario that I got lynched and flipped green. She looks less suspicious now because she never pushed me for lynch, and had been getting town reads off me. She clearly didn't see me as a threat to mafia, so had no need to push me as a suspect. Or she felt bad because we're friends.

So please, shoot dfs tonight, or hold your shot. If you shoot me, we lose instantly. Even if I'm a mafia power role, you can't prevent me from using my actions tonight anyway. Cop should check Eden because fuck, I have no idea what he is. dfs and meat are my two top scum atm.
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
May 08 2014 18:45 GMT
#1166
On May 09 2014 03:19 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
4 hours till im dead

Why do you think you're going to die?
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
May 08 2014 22:01 GMT
#1176
well gg if I get shot
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
May 08 2014 22:01 GMT
#1178
what the fuck
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
May 08 2014 22:18 GMT
#1183
wtf was mtamburini thinking? Was it all a ploy to stop himself getting lynched on the first day?

Ok, seeing as we have no vig, I don't think the host would have given mafia 4 players. Right now, I'm certain the last two scum are dfs and meat. Meat realises dfs is indefensible so he busses him along with me. Yellow is still cleared for me, now that mtam has flipped innocent. It means scum were totally expecting him to shoot yellow on night 2.
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
May 09 2014 13:40 GMT
#1200
What do you think of the fact that mtamburini our fake vig wasn't roleblocked on the second night, where he was almost certainly going to shoot yellow. That, for me, is good enough proof that he's town.

However, I'm getting more and more worried about bunnies. Her quality of play has dropped off dramatically since the first day. As a high priority target, I would have expected her to die already. Yes, Mafia probably thought she was being protected, but consider the possibility that she successfully fooled all of us, especially the jailer, into believing she is supertown, so that it wouldn't look weird for her to still be alive after three nights. She has never pushed me that hard either, despite how easy it would be to, and again I think that's because there's simply no need for her to get involved when the town are already on the case.

With regards to my voting behaviour yesterday, I think you'll find that I DID initially put my vote on mysterymeat, but he convinced me to unvote in favour of killing drav or dfs. Just because I was arguing for meat and dfs to die doesn't mean I can't be persuaded to vote for someone else. I didn't vote dfs because I would have been the only vote, and I was criticised before for making an "outlier" vote. I called drav out to make a post, and her post didn't reassure me of her alignment at all. I also voted drav to make sure the scum team couldn't make a last minute vote blitz onto meat, on the off chance that he WAS innocent.
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
May 09 2014 15:12 GMT
#1202
Oh wow so we're going by post count now? What happened to the aggressive enthusiastic posting you displayed at the beginning? Should we not be looking at the change in posting behaviour, as opposed to simply how many posts someone's made?

I don't understand your newbie game line either. Are you saying you're not putting your 100% into this game because this is a newbie game?

On May 09 2014 10:37 27ninjabunnies wrote:
I'm gonna have t take a step back a reassess some things. I'll make a post within the next couple of hours.
!

Still waiting for your post. Right now, your play just seems reactionary. I don't know if establishing yourself as the most innocent player in everyone's eyes has given you a sense of complacency. You're never going to get lynched, so if you ARE mafia, then well played. I don't like saying "I told you so".

As for why I shouldn't be lynched, I'm trying to post and contribute. It's just so difficult to pin down a scum read on anyone at this point. I suspect dfs, but then Mafia were happy to let mtamburini shoot him or myself. That is, if meat's roleblock claim is to be believed. I can't understand why he would be blocked again. Maybe they saw how much town reacted with suspicion to his first roleblock. But there was also the delay before he came out with his roleblock claim. Was he waiting to see if someone else would claim first, or does he just not check his PMs?
This sounds cliched, but if I get lynched, we lose, and I like I said before, I don't like saying "I fucking told you so"
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
May 09 2014 19:53 GMT
#1213
On May 10 2014 04:29 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
Epishade, out of the three of us eden, you, me

only one of us is mafia.

dfs is guarenteed

ahs is pretty confirmed mafia

my biggest gut feeling, and i want to side with you more than i want to side with eden now... ugggg im soooo torn


How the fuck am I confirmed Mafia?
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
May 10 2014 10:26 GMT
#1226
I'm a little worried about how easily this dfs lynch is going, with no solid evidence. I'm still uneasy at the fact that mtamburni was allowed to shoot when he had both me and dfs in his crosshairs last night. Meat's roleblock claim is still highly sketchy and he's still my #2 suspect. I guess we don't have a cop because they MUST have something by now, even if it's to prevent the lynch of a townie. Or I guess it means we're on the right path with dfs

##Vote: dfs
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
May 10 2014 12:33 GMT
#1228
Which is exactly what I'm saying. Any way I vote makes me look scummy. If I don't vote dfs, I'm making some outlier vote and don't want to vote for my scum buddy. If I do vote dfs, I'm jumping on an easy bandwagon.

Fuck this, I'm unvoting and voting bunnies instead. At this stage it's not even going to matter, because one of dfs or myself is getting lynched, bunnies will never get lynched, my vote on dfs is not going to make a difference.
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
May 10 2014 14:49 GMT
#1231
I'm not willing to vote yellow based on the fact that mafia were willing to see him shot on night 2. Bunnies, while she has played like she's pro-town, her activity and contribution has dropped somewhat. It's almost like she made herself look the towniest, and then just sat back. I've also not seen any mafia plays against her, like with yellow.
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
May 10 2014 22:15 GMT
#1240
:D
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
May 11 2014 10:11 GMT
#1258
On May 11 2014 14:50 Epishade wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 11 2014 14:16 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
Epishade im soooo vanilla town it hurts

Same here, but you don't have to tell me.

Ok, so I'm going through Tamburini's filter quickly and figuring this out then.

Night 1, he said he was going to shoot Yellow. He was likely roleblocked here so that town would organize a mislynch against Yellow.

Night 2, he implies that he'll shoot Yellow. Meat and Bunny get roleblocked, but Tamburini doesn't.

Night 3, Tamburini asks who he should shoot.

I say we should shoot Ahs as the best shot. Then meat after that probably.
Eden says to shoot Yellow, but Ahs is also a reasonable shot.
Bunny suggests between Ahs, dfs, and Eden.
Ahs says to shoot dfs.
Yellow suggests Ahs and dfs.

Every single person had mentioned Ahs (except for himself obviously). dfs comes second, but Ahs has more against him than dfs at that point. I made a big case against him and Yellow made a smaller case against dfs, but I think Ahs was more likely than anyone to possibly get shot by Tamburini. Tamburini gets roleblocked, and I don't see why they would do that unless it were to protect Ahs.

I know I thought I had cleared Ahs before when we lynched dfs, but I think I gotta take that back. I'm thinking Ahs is the next lynch for us.

Except after the events of that night I argued hard since mtamburini wasn't roleblocked on the night he died, and he was going to shoot me or dfs, that I wasn't mafia. For that same reason, and also the how unanimous the dfs vote was, I was really scared that he wasn't mafia either. I had no idea he WAS blocked, and meat was lying. That isn't even confirmed, we won't know if mtamburini was really blocked, and we won't know if meat is being truthful or not.
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
May 12 2014 09:23 GMT
#1272
RIP meat, I'm sorry I doubted you the entire game.
Ok going to post my own thoughts first before I respond to the case against me.

First, yellow is still top town for me. He leads the push to lynch dfs, when there could be an equally strong case made for me. I've been under so much suspicion that Mafia have no reason to bus one of their own so early on in the day. This is followed by Epishade who posts some sound reasoning for his vote against dfs.
On May 10 2014 05:44 Epishade wrote:
Nobody else do I really consider to be mafia right now other than him. I think Dfs is mafia at this point. Then, if Dfs flips scum, that clears Ahs for me, as well as Yellow and probably Meat too, as those guys have been his biggest scumreads all game so far. He's been in my potential mafia list the whole game too, and nothing has convinced me he's not so far.

Here, he clears me as well as Yellow who I'm certain is town, and meat who we now know is town. He's not pushing any of town as suspects. Although Epishade later retracts his clearing of me, that's reasonable if I consider it from his point of view.

And now I get to Eden, who has been pushing Yellow the entire game. He shows his concern about lynching dfs, and questions why I'm not being pushed for lynch. Now that dfs has flipped, this looks incredibly scummy. I know I expressed similar doubts and ended up voting for bunnies, but I know I'm innocent. Eden finally begrudgingly votes for dfs, but his reason for it is so weak.
On May 11 2014 01:54 Eden1892 wrote:
Well, if my options are dfs or bunnies then it's gotta be dfs. I really don't want that to be my options though, I have a horrible feeling about the fact that ahswtini is the only one besides me not on dfs right now.

##VOTE dfs

It sounds like his hands were forced. If he believed yellow was so scummy, why not vote for him? It's not like he can't start a new lynch wagon, unless he's scared of looking like an outlier. His vote on dfs was nothing more than a last minute bandwagon on his doomed comrade. Because of this, Eden is the most likely of the one or two remaining scum.

##Vote: Eden1892
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
May 12 2014 09:32 GMT
#1273
On May 12 2014 13:46 Epishade wrote:
I've looked through Drav's and dfs' filters and just about every time Eden is mentioned, I see that they are either questioning his actions, or placing him in their scumlists. Eden's filter also has him putting Drav and dfs in his scumread pile just about every time he makes a read. Either he's a really independent mafia (I've never heard of mafia that don't directly work with their partners - like free-for-all lol), or he's probably town.

I've made a case on Ahs a couple pages back that I'll repost. Basically Drav townreads him for most of the game, with one post that for some reason she places him in his scumpile (maybe she realizes that she's been townreading him all game long and that might look bad for him if she were to get lynched, idk?)

I've since looked through dfs' filter since he got lynched. He doesn't say all that much about Ahs, but he kind of has the same writing stance that he takes with Ahs that he does with Drav - not much to say.

Here are all the times that dfs mentions Drav.

+ Show Spoiler +

ritoky, dravernor, ashwtini - can't say anything still. Too much other stuff to follow and they didn't really cought my attention yet.
----------------------------------------
dravernor - finally explained his thoughs. Some stuff of what he says makes sense to me, but some stuff look weird. The fact that there is not my of anything else from him to look into doesn't help. Again, there are better targets right now.
----------------------------------------
Yellow doesn't want to "waste" his vote on Eden (and the only suspicion he has on him is his "gut feeling") so he votes a dravernor who has the least interaction to anyone throughout the whole game, which makes him the easiest bw target right now (which is exactly what is happening as i see it). Then after Eden's post he immediately switches his vote back to Eden, because he calls you suspicios again. Suddenly not a waste of a vote anymore.

Still, the mafia who's hiding in plain sight is more dangerous, so:

##Vote: MysteryMeat1


Here are all the times that dfs mentions Ahs.

+ Show Spoiler +

I want to look at Epishade and ashwtini, but for now highest on my list are:
Yell0w, sqrt and Meat (mafia or sk) in no particular order.

I'll explain my thoughts on sqrt, Epishade and ashwtini later.
----------------------------------------
ahswtini - not much to look at with his posts. The only people he talked about were Yell0w ("on the fence", he said he didn't like him being not serious and that's all he said), mtamburini (agreed with Epishade on his 3 mafia theory and pointed mtamburini specificly, but, like most people, changed the read to town after the vigi claim) and Meat (i shared the same concerns with ahswtini here). That's it. Almost nothing. Although his suspicious for Meat D1 i understand, but he voted even though Meat was banned and there were other, better suspects, in my opinion. The lack of reads on anyone else and an "outer" vote looks really bad for him.
----------------------------------------
So, based on that, my list of highest suspects in descending order is:

Yell0w, sqrt, ahswtini, Meat and Epishade.


Here's my case on Ahs from before when Tamburini asked us who to shoot, after Drav had been lynched.

+ Show Spoiler +

On May 08 2014 10:45 mtamburini wrote:
I think shooting tonight to give us a ML tomorrow if I hit correctly might be the best idea. I would like everyone to build a case on why I shouldnt shoot them and 2 people I should shoot.


You're giving us HOMEWORK!?!

I'm doing a lot of digging here to figure out the game. My reads haven't always been the best, but I've retracted them whenever I admitted fault. I hope that's a good enough reason not to shoot me.

Here are my thoughts on the current situation though.

Eden really wants Yellow dead. I've looked up the interactions that Yellow and Drav have had so far and, from what I can tell, they don't look too well like mafia partners. I urge you to look through their filters too and come to your own conclusion. Yellow and Drav both have each other as suspicious, and Yellow also votes for Drav before switching his vote to Eden.

I think Yellow made a weak case to not vote for Drav just because he didn't like Eden, and it's being interpreted as him deflecting from his mafia partner. The only reason he didn't vote for Drav is because Eden voted for Drav and Yellow thinks that Eden is scum.

I don't think Yellow's suspicion on Eden is particularly warranted, but that's the reason he voted for dfs as I see it.

Apart from Yellow, there's Ahs, who I think is a better target.

I looked through the filter between Drav and Ahs and came up with some thoughts.

Ahs doesn't talk all that much about Drav in his filter. Every mention of Drav is either asking why Meat voted for her (Drav's a girl I guess?), and this:

On May 08 2014 01:44 ahswtini wrote:
Would like to see a post from dravenor with her suspicions. I know she's online...


This is the only conversation that ahswtini attempts to initiate with Drav. I would think a mafia mistake is not having enough conversation with your partners, right? Since you know what your team is thinking, you don't really need to converse with each other to figure out their thought process. I think that's what happened here, is that ahswtini was attempting to talk a bit to Drav to add to the conversation between the two to make them seem less mafia-like.

Now, if you look at Drav's filter, and search through all the instances she mentions ahswtini, you can see that she's been kind of questioning his actions throughout the game, but still giving him a townread, except for one time where she lists him as scum in her reads for some reason idk.

It'd be a pain to go through and quote everything because Drav's posts are very long, so I'm just going to paste everything I can find about ahswtini that Drav mentions (in chronological order):

+ Show Spoiler +
What does everyone think of ahswtini at the moment? I think he made some good points, but I also think he shouldn't have voted Meat because he wasn't around to defend himself or contribute. Sure he hasn't been a great contributer so far, but we need to give him a chance. Why was ahswtini so desperate to have him lynched day 1? I don't see him having anything to hide by voting Meat, that wouldn't make sense, right?
--------------
I'm not sure what to think of tamb; ofc this is mostly because of what other people have already suspected of him - this hasn't changed, nor have my views on Epishade. ahswtini and MM1 have been laying it low this game, but I am not entirely convinced they're mafia. They may look suspicious but they haven't done enough to arouse my interest as possible mafia just yet. I think my top scumreads at the moment are Epishade and sqrt. I am on the fence with bunnies (and Yell0w -still) at the moment, her coming out and claiming she has a role all of a sudden and that she was blocked doesn't sound quite right to me. I already expressed suspicion of her in the beginning, withdrew it, and now it is building again. Is it possible she is mafia and shot to kill one of us, but someone roleblocked her? And if there is a sk (who isn't tamb), they were the one who possibly killed Amiko? I don't really know if that can happen in this game. If so, whoever roleblocked bunnies would surely have presented a case against her as to why she is mafia, and surely would have voted to lynch her? Thus far there has not been any substantial case claiming her to be mafia. So I guess by that reasoning, it makes sense that bunnies is town. It also doesn't make sense that a sk would kill Amiko on N1 since he was providing the most information. Unless the sk knew he was onto something and had something to hide? Is it possible that tamb IS infact sk and shot Amiko, then claimed to be gunning for Yell0w? A pretty clever ploy if you ask me.
--------------
Don't have much of an opinion on yet, but probably town: ritoky, Meat, dfs, ahswtini
--------------
I actually agree. I think Meat is town.
I think dfs is town.
I think bunnies might be town.
I think tamb is town.

I think Epishade is scum.
I think Eden might be scum.
I think ahs might be scum.
I think Yell0w might be scum.
--------------
ahswtini if you knew how long it took me to write my blogs you would know why it has taken me so long to post after getting home i don't really see what is so mafia about ahs (and myself either infact) - he hasn't been interacting a lot, sure, and he hasn't been putting pressure on anyone, but maybe he is busy too? I dunno, I only suspected him in the first place because a lot of you seemed to be making short cases against him, reading into them. But I'm still not entirely sure. 50:50.
--------------
On May 08 2014 05:16 dravernor wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2014 05:11 ahswtini wrote:
Ok I'm unvoting for now.

On May 08 2014 05:02 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
i explained already ahs, on why i switched my vote to drav....

The way lynch system works is that both drav and I are tied at 3 votes, drav is going to come online vote for me in order to save herself, even though she thinks im town. Then if i switch my vote to drav, i'll still be the one getting lynched. Also ahs, if you believe that both dfs and i are devo scum as you posted earlier, then switch your vote to dfs... Its pretty clear that i'm not going to get lynched.

Sorry I didn't notice you'd voted for drav, I just saw you place two town on that list.

Again, Mafia were certain that mtamburini was going to shoot yellow tonight. They let it go through because it would have lost us the game immediately if it had actually gone through. If yellow was Mafia, I don't see why his buddies would just let him die. If, as Mafia I wanted to keep scum yellow alive, I would have blocked and killed mtamburini last night.

That actually makes a lot of sense. Hmm.



Drav has that reply to Ahs at the end there (second to last post in the spoiler) based on what he was asking her from the above quote. This is their only interaction with each other and in it, Drav reaffirms his townieness.

I think Ahs is a better shot than Yellow.

Then, idk Meat I guess?

Try not to shoot Eden though.


Many of the lists that dfs and Drav place Ahs in are the same lists that they place each other in.

And, honestly, any one of you guys could be town to me. I feel that I'm making the best guess I can at this point. Out of anybody in here though, really. It was either Ahs, or you Bunny, as you've been consistently townread the entire game and are still alive, and that raises some concerns for me. You have your paranoias about me and Eden, I have mine about you. But I still think Ahs is a better pick over you right now, so he's getting my vote then.

Ok I'm sure we can all agree that out of the remaining potential scum (excluding me), drav and dfs were the most suspicious and (dare I say, weak) members of the team. The fact that dfs's allies abandoned him in his lynch vote shows to me that they were the scum who were most likely to die, and therefore should fix their reads and posts in the knowledge that their filters will be scrutinised after their flip.

Therefore, if the reasons for lynching me, and clearing Eden are based on what dfs and drav have written, then their set-up has worked.
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
May 13 2014 09:20 GMT
#1284
On May 13 2014 12:25 27ninjabunnies wrote:
But we are in lylo assuming there are 4 mafia in this game, 2 would still be alive.

Meaning 1 ml will lead to mafia winning. We HAVE to hit mafia here.

Has it ever been confirmed that we have been in LYLO? The only evidence that there are four mafia in total is that "it would fit the setup".

I'm not pushing bunnies anymore because the dfs flip has convinced me that Eden is scum here. I gave the reasons for voting Eden. Unlike him, I don't just push the same person (yellow) all the way through, I reassess the evidence after each flip. dfs and drav both townread me, and they both scumread Eden. They were the most likely people to be bussed by their team, and so they set those reads up accordingly.
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
May 13 2014 10:17 GMT
#1287
My only case on bunnies was that her activity had dropped significantly after she had gotten herself cleared by most of the players. And that she's still alive at this stage of the game. Oh, and how dfs gained so many votes that the idea that scum were well hidden in the cleared town circle scared me. After he died and flipped red, I saw you had begrudgingly abandoned your vote on Yellow to hop on the dfs wagon. And at the start of today, you were back on Yellow and now you switch to me.

Eden has been on the wagon of every lynch, but he has never been the one to start that lynch. Same again today, he throws down his typical vote for Yellow, then jumps on my wagon which Epishade started.
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
May 13 2014 14:51 GMT
#1292
On May 13 2014 22:05 27ninjabunnies wrote:
I think mafia is keeping me alive because of the fact that my activity has dropped. And they can use this against me to get my mislynched.

I'm not going to let that happen.

So because I am going to be at work when the vote concludes, I think scum is between Ahs and Yell0w.

##Vote:Ahs

And so you think it's me, because I'm the one acting on the fact that your activity has dropped?

I hope to god there's only one mafia left, because then you guys still have a chance.
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
May 13 2014 22:01 GMT
#1298
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-05-14 22:20:29
May 14 2014 22:20 GMT
#1312
On May 15 2014 07:19 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 15 2014 07:03 OnceKing wrote:
On May 15 2014 07:00 Amiko wrote:
On May 14 2014 07:00 sqrtofneg1 wrote:





"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
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