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On April 06 2014 01:28 Amiko wrote:
@kitaman27 I think we all feel it is likely there is a Dr. Who in the game. But, we don't know if you are friendly or not.
I am a little puzzled by your last post.
You think mafia have a jailkeeper. You think Vivax is jailkeeper. You think Vivax has said the scummiest thing the whole game. But, you don't think mafia is Vivax.
And, you also think the mafia is between vivax/thrawn/poofter
+ Show Spoiler +
In a setup where there is a detective, watcher, medic, jailkeeper, inventor, shrink and my role, it would be pretty crazy to think that they wouldn't have a roleblocker on their team. That either implicates austin, vivax, or the vanillas. austin was town checked on night one, which leaves vivax and the vanillas.
And, you pushed for a vivax d2
I feel like your post should be renewed conviction Vivax is scum. Why isn't it?
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That makes more sense.
Where did you mention that earlier?
Does a mafia jailkeeper roleblock + kill?
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I will be in thread for about an hour, kush if you are around let me know if your check is instant or not. If it's not instant I want to pick who to nuke earlier since I'll only be able to read/write on phone later in the day
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(If it's instant I'm still stuck with the phone but it's worth it)
I could hold the nuke to entice scum to convert me ~
I won't though ;_;
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Thoughts on Nuke Targets
> If the scumcheck isn't instant, I do not feel it makes sense to nuke kushm4sta because it would deny town the result of his check on kita.
> If the scumcheck isn't instant, I do not feel it makes sense to nuke kita because kush will provide a check on him which is some information, even if it may be a lie.
> I feel pretty good about austin as town, his play feels townie, his comments feel townie, and Vivax has claimed to have protected/roleblocked him both nights making it less likely he delivered KP or was converted.
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I feel somewhat good about Vivax. If I jailed austin n1 and there was no kill, I think I also would have jailed austin n2. There's no guarantee he is actually a jailer, but his actions do feel consistent at least. He's currently low on my nuke list.
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So based on the above post I'm between tehpoofter, thrawn2112, hopeless1der
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My d1 I think I discussed kita, rayn, and hopeless the most. N1 I also discussed hopeless some more and did a reread on him here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/445571-doctor-who-mafia-2?page=54#1061).
So, if someone wanted to kill/convert me n1, it could have been based on my doubt of kita or my scumfeels on hopeless1der.
I think tehpoofter's play has changed somewhat, but I could attribute that partially to the other game or just general change in the pace of the game.
I think I would prefer tehpoofter or hopeless to thrawn, but I am not sold yet.
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BTW Austin, I was hoping that "bird god" was popcorning your role as bodyguard but I didn't give it too much thought. :D
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I'm heading out in a little bit.
Kush is your preference that I target thrawn or tehpoofter? Could you try to explain to me why you would pick thrawn over tehpoofter, or try to explain why you feel like hopeless is less likely to be a target?
@All
Please weigh in on nuke choices. I'd like top two players.
I'll ensure I get the nuke launch in, and now that I look at the countdown again I'm sure I'll be back with some time to talk before nuking.
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I’m skimmed Austin and kita’s cases earlier, I will go back, reread, and post comments.
I want to respond to this first since it's easier-
Nuking by Night
I am a little confused that you think I might want to hold the nuke Austin… I think most everyone reads you as the most likely town this game, both from your play and thanks to having a few people claim to protect you on various nights. So if you think I should hold it, I will certainly consider it.
My concern is this - we don’t know exactly how conversions happen. We’ve speculated (maybe it happens odd nights?) but I think the only sure thing is that it happens at night (based on rayn’s role PM). If I nuke during the day, the nuke may kill someone who could have converted. Maybe not, I don’t know if converted people can convert or what. Also, I’d kind of like to hold other players to the same standard as me: if the other VTs get nukes tomorrow, I think I want to be able to require that they shoot during the day.
If I hold the nuke, we may get information. Let’s say we lynch kush (I skimmed the cases from Austin and kita, I will reread it and comment at length after this post). Regardless of whether he flips green or red, the information we get isn’t necessarily going to point to anyone. He might be green and kita is godfather; he might be scum and kita is town; he might be scum and kita is scum. We do get a little information - if he is scum, and his role PM indicates he was converted, we can better evaluate his interactions with kita D1 (because he would have been town at the time).
If we lynch kita, it’s possible the information is very helpful. If kita’s role PM reveals he is scum and is not a godfather, kush is confirmed scum.
I suppose firing the nuke also confirms that I received it, but I don't think there's really any doubt of that.
If you think I should hold onto it let me know.
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I'm still writing on austin's case on kushm4sta, but a quick comment since you are/were in thread:
@kitaman27: I think austin indicated that he attempted to roleblock you n2. Per vivax's jailing of austin, austin was also a roleblock target.
We don't know how it works when roleblockers target roleblockers. But, it is possible that you austin roleblocked you. If that's the case, it is also possible you did not get an action n2 and still can use the protect power. I don't know if hosts would tell you if you still have the power, you can check with them if you feel like it. Back to case.
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@Vivax I don't really understand. I'm just saying if kita's role claim is true, he may still be able to protect someone.
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Kushm4sta
@Austinmcc: I liked your case and have a few other things to add that I thought contributed to your case when I reread kush. You focus primarily on kush’s early game, but I think there’s some recent comments that look bad, too.
In this post on d3, kush comments on kita’s d2 case on Vivax. For context, kush voted on vivax d2.
On April 05 2014 18:50 kushm4sta wrote:Show nested quote +On April 04 2014 00:16 kitaman27 wrote:On March 31 2014 07:45 Vivax wrote:
The thing about Slam is that we don't know what kind of 3p there is in the game, being a closed setup he should be lynched at some point anyway, but not necessarily today, where we should rather lynch mafia. I don't like Rayn going for the "easy" lynch so quickly and calling it a day On April 01 2014 05:52 Vivax wrote:
thrawn and kita vote slam and postpone any possible scum lynches we can't be sure of at this stage. It's good play to buy time lynching a wildcard The biggest problem that I have with Vivax is his inconsistency between post 1 and 2. In the first post, he goes after Rayn for the easy slam lynch stating that slam should be dealt with at some point in the future, while trying to lynch mafia instead. I agree with that point and think it's generally good policy. Mid way through the day, he suggests that Slam could be a traitor and that he was willing to support a slam lynch, not necessarily because slam was mafia, but because it was a possibility that he was mafia. By the end of the day, Vivax wants to lynch slam to postpone a rayn lynch for another day. Here is what I find scummy. I would expect a townie to follow this path of logic: 1) We should lynch mafia, rather than slam day one 2) Slam needs to be killed at some point to remove doubt, but lets see if I can find a likely mafia instead 3) rayn isn't the best lynch today, but player X is and this is why This is Vivax's path: 1) We should lynch mafia, rather than slam day one 2) Slam needs to be killed at some point to remove doubt 3) rayn isn't the best lynch today, so I guess we have no choice but to lynch slam I don't have a huge issue with Vivax wanting to not lynch rayn, but I do have an issue with the fact that he don't attempt to pursue a player that he thinks is scum. He says that he is working on things one by one, but in the end nothing comes of it. Sure, he questions thinks he finds suspicious and asks for opinions, but there is no follow up or statements attempting to convince others to lynch a certain player, rather than the settle vote at the end, which is what he was criticizing to begin with. On April 03 2014 04:26 Vivax wrote:
Also give opinions on how you wanna use the nuke plz. You should really fire it on kaslam. If Vivax argues that he was completely stumped on day one, had absolutely no mafia reads, and wanted more time to find a mafia player, I really don't like his nuke preference. He criticizes rayn for going for the easy target and calling it a day, while deciding not to suggest that the nuke be fired at a scum suspect on day two. He essentially settles two cycles in a row without indicating that he actually has a strong mafia read on slam, aside from cult speculation, which is more of a guess at a possibility than anything. On April 03 2014 08:14 Vivax wrote:On April 03 2014 08:08 Djodref wrote:On April 03 2014 08:02 Vivax wrote:
This isn't even about you defending thrawn cause you actually can claim you aren't since you simply have shown why you disagree with Toad's case. But the point of it is that in all of this I don't see how you come to the conclusion that Toad could be scum. What about my arguments then ? Hopeless has been Toad's scumread but... Toad didn't push Hopeless lynch D1. Toad forgot about Hopeless since rayn's lynch. Toad is barely playing. Toad doesn't have a vote. Or maybe kush stole his vote. Stuff like this doesn't really seem like a mindset that he is thinking about things from a town perspective. Like toad claims to have a vote, kush claims to have two votes, so for kush to steal toad's vote, that would mean both toad and kush are lying/buddies, which doesn't even make sense. His argument with hope today does seem like it makes a hope/vivax pair unlikely, which makes me worried about who else I'm overlooking. I do want to evaluate hope a bit more in depth before deciding between the two/others, but right now I'm leaning mafia. this is his only scumhunting post after d1. long but scummy. it's not good that all his effort is concentrated in one place. also not good that he wants to lynch vivax for reasons that boil down to pretty much "i dont really like his choice of nuke". even though I thought vivax gave an excellent reason to lynch alakaslam.
Here, kush’s comments are weird for a couple of reasons. For one, the tone here seems to imply that kush doesn’t feel vivax is a good lynch… but kush voted for vivax n2. He also indicated multiple times through the game he felt vivax was a good lynch (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/445571-doctor-who-mafia-2?page=78#1541 for one example)
Second, “it's not good that all his effort is concentrated in one place.” doesn’t make sense to me in context –what is kita focusing all of his effort into? It seems sensible that if kita is posting a case on vivax, it should focus on vivax.
This could be explained by kush trying to distance himself from kita as a scumpartner.
His read on Vivax also changes with very little prompting. After the linked post above (where Vivax is obviously scum), kush votes vivax (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=21114553).
Then, kush moves vivax from “obvious scum” to “probably town”
On April 04 2014 07:18 kushm4sta wrote:
im reading his filter from today and it's like so engaged and shit. Dont remember him playing so enthusiastically as scum. I think i just overestimated what his town game looks like something.
On April 04 2014 07:19 kushm4sta wrote:
austinmcc - hella town
kitaman27 - hella town
Hopeless1der - probably town
thrawn2112 - possible scum
JarJarDrinks -possible scum
Vivax - probably town
Djodref - possible scum
Amiko - possible scum
Tehpoofter - possible scum
The grounding feels very weak to me. Moreover, it feels kind of the opposite of what you’d expect. Like, let’s say I play a game with someone and say “He’s scum because he isn’t being silly!” then the person starts acting silly. If I really believed what I said earlier, I think my response should be “He’s just trying to be silly to pass it off” not “Oh, he’s being silly now, he must be town.”
Regarding the “Too much information”
On March 31 2014 22:08 kushm4sta wrote:
I think there is evidence that kita has too much information.
On April 02 2014 13:40 kushm4sta wrote:
im kind of busy with shit now so I'm not going to filter dive at this second, which is what I really need to do.
about kita having too much information.. since then i pretty much 180ed on that. It was how he said this game only has 1 or 2 scum, when i was approaching the game thinking there were 3 or 4.
But in actuality, if kita were scum, he probably wouldn't have said that at all because he would be extra careful not to reveal he has too much information.
Austin makes the point, which I think is pretty good, that the second post doesn’t make sense. Kush is saying, kita can’t be scum because he said something scummy.
I agree with Austin but would actually take it a step further. Kush’s first post there is D1. The second post is D2. His 180 on kita could be a result of a conversion n1 (either kush converting kita, or kita converting kush).
More to say in a few minutes
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Kush - Townpoint for scumcheck timing
So earlier I posted this
On April 06 2014 02:12 Amiko wrote:
Thoughts on Nuke Targets
> If the scumcheck isn't instant, I do not feel it makes sense to nuke kushm4sta because it would deny town the result of his check on kita.
> If the scumcheck isn't instant, I do not feel it makes sense to nuke kita because kush will provide a check on him which is some information, even if it may be a lie.
> I feel pretty good about austin as town, his play feels townie, his comments feel townie, and Vivax has claimed to have protected/roleblocked him both nights making it less likely he delivered KP or was converted.
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I feel somewhat good about Vivax. If I jailed austin n1 and there was no kill, I think I also would have jailed austin n2. There's no guarantee he is actually a jailer, but his actions do feel consistent at least. He's currently low on my nuke list.
When I posted this, kush had indicated his check may not be instant. Part of the reason I put the comments on kita and kush first was because I wanted to draw more attention to them. My thought was, scum!kushm4sta would have incentive to not reveal his check because I have indicated I want to use my nuke today. However, I indicated that I wouldn’t want to nuke kita/kush if the check was outstanding.
In other words, if kush is scum, he had a strong incentive to claim that scumchecker didn’t work right away, or only worked at night. Then, it would be likely I would nuke into someone else, ensuring scum survive and potentially winning the game if they can convert.
However, kush did state that he got a towncheck on kita. So, I feel a little less certain that they are a scumteam.
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Kita I started on your case and rereading but I'm too tired to gofurther tonight. I'll aim to do it first thing tomorrow. I'll hold the nuke until night phase, hopefully that won't screw us over.
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@kitaman27: I am going through your comments, if you have time while I read please answer this:
What do you think of the possibility that scum has a driver?
You mention it briefly as a possibility with regard to verifiable night actions/
I have followup question(s) after that.
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On April 07 2014 02:02 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2014 01:55 Amiko wrote:
@kitaman27: I am going through your comments, if you have time while I read please answer this:
What do you think of the possibility that scum has a driver?
You mention it briefly as a possibility with regard to verifiable night actions/
I have followup question(s) after that. It could definitely be possible. With so many power roles out there, I would think they would need at least some way to deal with them. As far as I can think, we haven't had any wacky night actions results though. All the claims seem to line up with actually happened so far.
My initial line of thought was this:
It seems weird to me that kush received the scumdetector over another player. So maybe Djo was driven to kush. If that's the case, it implies that scum knows Djo is the inventor. Based on that, I would think one explanation is that kita is converted n1, tells kush (scum busdriver) to drive Djo to kush so he gets the invention.
It could also be explained if Kita has a busdriving power. From my understanding, Dr. Who is taking the kids to the
However, I reviewed Djo's filter; he seemed to mistrust kush initially but it seems he gave him a lot of town cred for using his 1shot, so eh.
Going back to your case kita
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I thought I finished that sentence.
I was saying maybe kita is a busdriver because Dr. Who takes the kids to the amusement park, but that's just whoknows lore speculation.
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Kitaman27’s Claim & Setup Analysis
Who is your doctor and what does he do?
I tend to believe Kita’s comment regarding tracking djo n1. I noticed the “something else” in his post earlier regarding DJO and figured it might be a softclaim. I am a little suspicious of Kita’s claim to have protected Austin n2. I do think protecting DJO was the safer play, but I’d also note that I feel this post:
On April 05 2014 05:09 kitaman27 wrote:*Shines sonic screwdriver at austin in an attempt to blind him*
is more a roleblock claim more than a protect claim… it’s alignment indicative to me, though, and it might mean “something else” so I’ll leave it for the moment. (NOTE: This thought led me into the busdriver line of thought I posted in thread a little bit ago, I am redacting it from this post)
Angie and Rose -- A Rose is a Rose
I think I do not agree with kita’s suggestion that Angie makes sense as a scum role for the purposes he states. If Scum-Angie-Hopeless watches Vivax-Rose’s target, he doesn’t actually learn who Rose targeted, only other people targeting that player, so he still can’t be sure who has been alignment checked.
Vivax – Inconsistent Views
I still don’t feel persuaded by this case kita.
From my understanding, the crux of this point is the concept that D1 vivax liked kita and his case on rayn, but then D2 vivax says kita is terrible.
My first problem is that I feel vivax raised some suspicion of kita d1.
First, he seems to see kita as scummy.
+ Show Spoiler +Calls a post from kita scummy here: On March 31 2014 07:45 Vivax wrote:The thing about Slam is that we don't know what kind of 3p there is in the game, being a closed setup he should be lynched at some point anyway, but not necessarily today, where we should rather lynch mafia. I don't like Rayn going for the "easy" lynch so quickly and calling it a day, same how I didn't like Toad going 100 % sure on hopeless in one of his initial post. This post from kita I found scummy: + Show Spoiler +On March 30 2014 15:54 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 30 2014 15:06 raynpelikoneet wrote:
In case it's unclear. It's like normally people give you a puzzle to solve and slowly give you pieces to the puzzle along the way. Then they assume townies complete the puzzle and mafia tries to force the pieces in wrong order. kitaman gives you a puzzle, then he gives you pieces to 10 different puzzles and i don't even know if he wants you to try to solve the original puzzle.
lol you amuse me. But you have it backwards. I'm simply trying to gather the pieces for myself. The puzzle is mine to solve. As for your "web of disruption" post, it has a catchy name, but I'll respond once you come to an actual conclusion. thrawn is off my naughty list for the moment. People of interest: Tehpoofter seems to be asking questions that I don't find all that interesting. His initial vote of slam seems a bit forced. Amiko asking me or hope for the clarification doesn't seem scummy to me. We were probably just around. His lack of opinion and direction does appear scummy however. g Hopeless with his "do i need to go through the motions of totes serious voting to get a response?" conveys a kind of "look at me doing someone" without actually coming to a conclusion other than that I'm useless slam...generally I try to ignore him and the last time I did so I believe he was mafia. Day one survivor claims are usually someone I would lynch, even if I thought they might be a survivor. My biggest worry is that he might be a trolly town who is willing to get lynched and doesn't care, but he wasn't willing to role claim when asked and shows signs of over frustration that doesn't appear genuine. I'll probably leave my vote on him, though we need to avoid the scenario where nobody is under pressure because the lynch is already decided. kush is someone who usually gets on my nerves early and hasn't done so yet, which is a concern. I seem to remember him playing mafia and acting completely reasonable, but I'll have to look back to familiarize myself with some of his more recent games. In my opinion, thrawn and hope both overreacted to the random vote, yet kush doesn't draw the same conclusion by only expressing suspicion of thrawn. If slam is a survivor, then kush being the first one to defend him may make sense as mafia if he knows his alignment. This way of talking of "people of interest" summarizing some stuff to show where you stand kinda looks like posting for the sake of posting. Interesting is he only talks (as of suspects) about people that didn't react to his previous behaviour or asked him questions about his intentions. Affirming he still feels scummy on kita On April 01 2014 02:43 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On April 01 2014 02:38 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am putting Vivax back to null - leaning scum because his kitanamn suspicion went *poof* and it disappeared and he is not reading properly. I am working things off one by one. Nowhere did I say my suspicion of kita went "poof", so don't assume so just cause I am currently not asking him questions. If you could simply answer instead of spamming desperation cryouts cause of a question then it would be appreciated thanks.
Then, he moves toward a null read of kita, but still indicates some concerns/doubts on kita.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 01 2014 03:46 Vivax wrote:
Nullish atm, didn't like how you started with your trick, then it seemed like you reacted to the pressure by giving a summary of the situation which felt like a stretch and looked like a post designed to look good not to find scum. That would be my main beef with your play. The way you replied to rayn made me feel better about you cause you pointed out his disruptive attitude. On April 01 2014 05:52 Vivax wrote:
thrawn and kita vote slam and postpone any possible scum lynches we can't be sure of at this stage. It's good play to buy time lynching a wildcard
I also think kita is misapplying Vivax’s statement that he is “being this bad as town”
Look at the quote in context:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/445571-doctor-who-mafia-2?page=82#1635
Vivax isn’t saying that kita is being bad as town because of his push on rayn. Vivax is saying kita is being bad as town because kita is pushing onto Vivax.
Look at Vivax’s next post, too, where there’s this exchange
+ Show Spoiler +
Kita: So to be clear, you thought my case on rayn was valid yesterday, but today you can't imagine me being this bad as town, even though you agreed with me?
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Vivax: Yea precisely, especially cause of the push on me, I saw you hunting me when I was scum and it wasn't like this, gut wise. I know you are a good scumhunter and I feel like I'm not up against a scumhunter here, I'm simply up against a guy who decided for some reason he wants to lynch me but doesn't otherwise seem interested in what I have to say (like kush and tehpoofter though).
…
So, what I’m saying is, I don’t feel like Vivax is calling kita scummy because of kita’s d1 being bad. I think Vivax is calling kita scummy because he feels the case on Vivax is bad and not presented right.
So, I don’t think kita’s case is particularly strong on this point because I don't see this as an inconsistency.
More in a little bit!
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On April 07 2014 02:30 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2014 02:14 Amiko wrote:
I thought I finished that sentence.
I was saying maybe kita is a busdriver because Dr. Who takes the kids to the amusement park, but that's just whoknows lore speculation. If I'm a busdriver, do you not believe my explanation of tracking djo?
@kitaman27
No, I think you probably tracked DJO n1. Otherwise, you wouldn't know to drive Djo to obtain the item.
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EPT
