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Like I previously mentioned, N1k0 flipping red most likely means that Valenius is town. So despite my previous read on him as scum, at this point with the information that we have, I’m confident he’s town.
Regarding N1k0: It's possible the mafia planned to bus him, this likely explains the lack of defense from N1k0 if they had agreed to do this. N1k0’s vote on Beneather can mean two things:
1) Random vote on any random player to throw us off
2) Vote on his teammate to keep as much distance from him and N1k0
It’s more likely to be the first case since the second option is risky if we don’t buy his bluff, however we still have to consider that Beneather is his teammate.
At this point I have Beneather as my top scum read. His only posts on day 2 were presenting scum reads on N1k0 and Valenius. He posted this regarding N1k0:
First off, N1k0 seems to be most likely scum as he even stated that he has just backpacked on other people's opinions, that is rather scummy as mafia will try to stay in the shadows and just follow other people's and bandwagon a townie lynch.
He calls N1k0 scum because he backpacked on other people’s opinion, yet he is doing the exact same thing in this post. Also, the rest of his post has a much larger case against Valenius. From reading it I would think he had a better scum read on Valenius than N1k0, but on his next post he says:
Oh I forgot...
##Vote n1k0
As for my town reads I’m very confident that OnceKing and Valenius are town because OnceKing put up the case that pretty much got N1k0 and Valenius got the ball rolling on N1k0's lynch.
I probably look very suspicious right now, seeing as I’m the only remaining player who didn’t vote N1k0. I was the first person to vote for someone on day 2 and thought I had a really good read on Valenius, up until OnceKing posted his case on N1k0, I was convinced that Valenius was scum since I didn't even notice N1k0's piggybacking. As much as I liked OnceKing's post, my pride took the better of me and I wanted to be right about this, on the slim chance N1k0 flipped green I wanted to be the guy that got it right. As I previously stated I was okay with switching my vote in order to get a majority on N1k0 but that wasn't necessary so I stuck to my guns and hoped that my reads were right.
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Down to lynch Beneather as well. It's really annoying how he only posts enough to not get modkilled. If he somehow flips green I think the lynch would still be worth it given he hasn't helped us at all.
##Vote Beneather
Could OnceKing have used his power on himself? I really think he should have given his play on day 2.
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We're so close to winning I haven't really put effort into finding scum for the slim chance Beneather flips green. Half of day 3 has passed and he hasn't said anything so I assume we got him and the game's pretty much over.
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Really disappointed Beneather didn't flip red. I got a bit excited when I went to check the results because I thought this was going to be my first forum mafia win. The final day sounds like it's going to be a 2v1 hopefully I get to be a part of it.
@Amiko I want to convince you that you are wrong because if I don't die at night and you guys get a mislynch on me, we will lose. This post will be me explaining myself based on the points you made, so I will be using the same titles you used.
Day1: Voting for a blue
The quote you put on their is entirely out of context. Here is the entire post:
+ Show Spoiler +On February 17 2014 15:37 theDragoon wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2014 12:46 Amiko wrote:
theDragoon & Valenius: I'm not sure. They have contributed a little but I don't have a read yet. I would like to ask both, if you were to pick someone other than me to lynch, who would you pick and why? If I am lynched and flip green, what will your thoughts be on Cavalinho &
I've got my eye on Lord Tolkien at this point in time mainly because of this: Show nested quote +On February 17 2014 12:28 Lord Tolkien wrote:On February 17 2014 12:00 theDragoon wrote:@Lord Tolkien: Me: obv town. If I were blue, it would only be Veteran because I can take a hit; otherwise, why would I risk my neck Day 1. You could also read me red I suppose; it's also a possibility. I just want to clarify what you mean by this post. What exactly was the risk you took and why would it be such a big risk that only a Veteran would take? I meant that if I were a blue. There's no reason for a cop or somesuch to be forward/active in Day 1, because it draws attention to themselves for a night kill from mafia. The only blue role (if I am a blue) that leads you to think I would be is a Veteran because I can soak a night shot. Assuming I'm not vanilla town or mafia, which are the other logical possibilities. I'm willing to bet the same thing generally with OnceKing, and probably Caval as well. Green, veteran, or mafia are the likely choices. The problem I have with this is the soft blue claim. He's saying that a cop or similar blue role wouldn't be active on day 1 for fear of drawing attention to themselves. Then he says if he is blue, then he'd be a Veteran. I'm not really buying the whole I'm active therefore I'm a veteran thing. I feel like any townie, green or blue should try to be active so that we can gather as much info as we can. So by trying to suggest he is a blue, he can avoid 2 things: 1) getting lynched if people believe his suggestion, this works well if he's red 2) if mafia doesn't have a roleblocker and they believe he is a veteran then he avoids getting shot, he's basically banking on mafia not having a roleblocker. He'd be one of my lynch targets on day 1 just because I want to see if he's scum pretending to be blue. If he does get lynched and ends up flipping blue then it looks bad on me. However, I don't feel too strong about this one to vote him just yet.
I was concerned at the fact that LT was basically saying that only the veteran would be active on day 1 because they feel can take a hit. What I was thinking at the time was that LT was putting fear in town from being active unless they were a veteran so that we wouldn't have as much information to gain from players posting actively. You also forgot to mention that I put myself at huge risk of being lynched if LT flipped blue and I would be instantly lynched on day 2 because of my incorrect read. If I was mafia and thought LT was a blue role and I pushed his lynch, how bad of a mafia play would that be to make on day 1?
Also, about the slip regarding the mafia QT, I previously mentioned it might have been a reach on my part but it made perfect sense to me that he could have slipped up about mentioning the mafia QT, which I was never thinking of since I don't have access to it. Doesn't it make more sense for the person using the mafia QT to be the one talking about it?
saving a mafia
There were several people who could have saved Cavalinho, including Cavalinho himself. At that point I don't think people were thinking of who can they save because it doesn't make any sense to try saving someone who isn't a confirmed town. Even with a strong town read on someone there is always that element of doubt that they could be scum. I also posted that I was starting to have doubts on Cav here: + Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=13#248
I think you forgot to mention that I had a slight scum read on n1k0 at the exact same post I voted for Tolkien. I voted Tolkien because I had a better scum read on him than I had on n1k0 since n1k0 was lurking and there wasn't much in the way of posts to get a good read on him.
Short Memory/Following the Scum
Did it ever occur to you that I changed my opinion on LT because of the way LT was posting? I may not have explicitly stated it by posting but in my personal notes I was leaning towards LT being town at that point. You can say the same about OnceKing, who we know is town, he also switched from scum LT to town LT. You're reaching really hard here for nothing.
The Choice Not Taken
I think I'm repeating myself here, I voted for the guy I had a better scum read on. How is jumping the bandwagon the pride-saving move? I had a read on Valenius, which I thought was 100% correct and I wanted to be right about this. I wanted to be the only one who got it right. Given the number of votes on n1k0, I was willing to stand out away from the pack just so I can say I was right about Val (at this point I can still be right about Val). I was also willing to switch to n1k0 if the votes were close, which I explained in a previous post saying that n1k0 red flip = more likely Val is green, but not vice versa.
A Decent Argument
What this means is, theDragoon justifies not voting n1k0 based on townreading n1k0’s argument... after he previously calls the argument scummy
Wow, I justified not voting n1k0 because I had a better scum read on LT. Thanks for putting words into my mouth. Also, I never said that I found n1k0's posts contradictory, I was asking Cav why he didn't pick apart the contradictions that Cav himself found. I asked because I couldn't find any contractions myself. Again, you are putting words in my mouth.
I will be posting my thoughts on other players hopefully later on in the night or maybe after, if I survive. This is definitely shaping up to be a pretty epic mafia game and I hope to be a part of the final day.
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Some quick thoughts on the remaining players, just in case I don't survive the night. These are just quick notes based off reading through each person's filter.
Amiko
I don't like how he brings up people who could have saved Cav because that early in the game nobody is 100% certain of their reads to go out of their way to save someone, most people would rather vote on who they think is scum. I think this is just him trying implicate others.
He bandwagon'd on the vote on n1k0 in day 2 without really presenting anything against him. Also want to note his vote was late, he could have waited to see if there was a chance others would jump ship and vote on someone else. When he saw that there's no hope he bus'd n1k0 to gain town cred.
Amiko wanted to encourage talk and discussion during night so that he can have a more informed decision on who to kill.
N1k0 said Amiko is likely to be godfather and warned any possible cop not to check on Amiko, then calls Amiko town.
Valenius
Unlikely to be mafia after n1k0's flip but just in case.
Him, n1k0 and Beneather were under fire start of day 2, we know Beneather is town and n1k0 is scum. If Valenius is scum, the best way for mafia to ensure one of them can be cleared is to bus the other. He agrees to bus n1k0, starts vote on him to gain massive town cred. N1k0 offers absolutely no defense since they agreed to this.
Lord Tolkien
Scummiest thing he's done is the formal lynching proposal, what better way for mafia to control the game than to propose something like this?
During day 1, other players had scum reads on him because of his actions, yet n1k0 reads him town. He also kept mentioning specific roles, as if he's trying to figure out what the blue roles are and who they can be, only mafia would be interested in this on day 1.
I don't like how he casts doubt on himself being town, saying stuff like "It's possible I'm mafia". It's not that scummy but why do this? I want to believe you are town but you are putting doubt in my head.
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I did this rather quick and I don't like quotes and links to posts where I got this info. I'll post something more detailed if I survived, I just wanted to post my thoughts examining each remaining player as mafia since at this point, it's equally likely any of the remaining players could be mafia.
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LT and I both have the same theory regarding Valenius. When I wrote my pre-day 4 post I thought I was being a bit paranoid about Valenius. After the n1k0 flip, I really thought that Valenius was town but now everything is adding up to Valenius being mafia. Initiating the vote on his teammate is the best way to clear his name and it worked. After n1k0's flip all the remaining players had a town read on Valenius, despite him being scrutinized pre-n1k0 flip for being scum.
I wanted to look at the night kills to see if there was some sort of trend.
Night 1: IAmRobik
Night 2: OnceKing
Night 3: Lord Tolkien
IAmRobik
On day 1 his top 3 scum, in order were: N1k0, Lord Tolkien and Valenius. He also voted for n1k0. If Valenius is mafia, then that's 2 guys in his top 3, which might have led mafia to think that he was on to them. Another thing to note is that Valenius voted for him on day 1.
OnceKing
He had the case that got n1k0, there's no question about it. He was the obvious target for a mafia kill because he got n1k0. This could be revenge for n1k0 or mafia was concerned that OnceKing might catch both of them. There's a bit of a trend going on now, both mafia kill targets were onto n1k0, with OnceKing being successful in leading a n1k0 lynch. The mafia are targeting people who are on to them.
Lord Tolkien
He had a case on Valenius at the start of day 2 but voted for n1k0 after OnceKing's post. After that though he said his top 2 scum were me and Beneather. After Beneather's lynch/modkill he posted this:
On February 25 2014 05:47 Lord Tolkien wrote:
I think Valenius is town, and Amiko is definitely scum, and theDragoon is maybe scum.
I'll make a last minute expansion post, but that's the gist of it.
Lynch Amiko and win guys.
If we're still following the trend where mafia are targeting people who are on to them, then this post could tell us who the last mafia is. That points to Amiko.
In summary, the night kills were on people who suspected n1k0 and Amiko. Based on the night kills alone, Amiko is the most likely mafia.
As of now I'm undecided on who to vote for, but I'm leaning towards Valenius because he was my strongest scum read on day 2 (pre-n1k0 flip) and I'd be really pissed if he doesn't get lynched and turns out to be mafia.
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@Amiko
@Valenius @theDragoon: How confident were you for your votes d2 at the time you made them?
When I voted for Valenius, OnceKing had yet to post his case on n1k0 and at the time all the cases on n1k0 were rather weak compared to the ones for Valenius. So I was fairly confident I was right, I only started having doubts after I read OnceKing's post and by the time I read it the majority of the votes were on n1k0.
Now is the time to get the lynch right on Valenius. I DO NOT want to lose to a mafia who completely played us all in day 2. I'll be so pissed that he gets away because we instantly label him town as soon as n1k0 flipped red. It would mean he completely outplayed us all and I'm not gonna let myself be outplayed when there's a chance right now to put him down.
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On February 26 2014 05:26 Valenius wrote:Show nested quote +In summary, the night kills were on people who suspected n1k0 and Amiko. Based on the night kills alone, Amiko is the most likely mafia.
In that case, I should probably be dead. Amiko's been in my scum reads each time so far.
Fair enough, but the difference I see between you putting Amiko in your scum reads and the other night kills were that they voted for the scum (n1k0), except LT. Also, during day 1, Amiko had three people vote for him, who later switched their votes for the final count. Of the three people who voted Amiko, two were night killed and one was lynched on day 1. There's no denying there's a trend in the night kills, what we have to determine is if it leads to the right direction.
Show nested quote +On February 18 2014 12:02 kitaman27 wrote:Final Vote Count cavalinho: (2) IAmRobik, Amiko, N1k0 IAmRobik: (1) cavalinho, Valenius Lord Tolkien: (2) Beneather, OnceKing, theDragoon Beneather: (0) Lord TolkientheDragoon: (0) IAmRobikAmiko: (0) OnceKing, Lord Tolkien, cavalinhoOnceKing: (1) Lord Tolkien N1k0: (2) cavalinho, IAmRobik Valenius: (1) Beneather Cavalinho has been lynched. No posting until the night post.
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On February 26 2014 09:04 Amiko wrote:@theDragoon If you answered this sorry I missed it, please do: Show nested quote +On February 25 2014 16:22 Amiko wrote:On February 25 2014 04:36 theDragoon wrote: A Decent ArgumentWhat this means is, theDragoon justifies not voting n1k0 based on townreading n1k0’s argument... after he previously calls the argument scummy Wow, I justified not voting n1k0 because I had a better scum read on LT. Thanks for putting words into my mouth. Also, I never said that I found n1k0's posts contradictory, I was asking Cav why he didn't pick apart the contradictions that Cav himself found. I asked because I couldn't find any contractions myself. Again, you are putting words in my mouth. Sorry, I am confused by your response to this one, maybe I misunderstood what you meant in the earlier post or in this one. Which post by n1k0 were you saying was a decent argument?
I don't think i ever said n1k0 had a decent argument, "a decent argument" was the title you put into your post and that was the part I was referring to with my reply. My post there was me saying you put words in my mouth by saying I townread n1k0's argument.
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@Amiko I think OnceKing was a likely night kill but I wasn't really thinking of who the mafia were going to kill at the time.
I was reading through Robik's posts after Cav's lynch and he was really active during night 1. He declined LT's formal lynching proposal.
He also suggested not to post too much info during the night, for fear that mafia might use it to get a good night kill.
On February 18 2014 12:27 IAmRobik wrote:
So I guess we're allowed to talk. I suggest not going into too much detail about your reads and stuff because it may point mafia in the direction of a night kill that they want to make. All I'll say is that I was very staunch about not wanting to lynch cavalinho and that he was one of my top town and I'm highly disappointed that he was lynched.
He also disliked that Amiko was posting analysis during the night.
On February 18 2014 14:35 IAmRobik wrote:
NO...STOP TALKING ABOUT THE GAME. WHAT ARE YOU DOING!?!?!?
Robik was being a much more vocal town leader than OnceKing was so I'm guessing that's why they chose to kill him rather than OnceKing. What I find intriguing is that Amiko kept trying to pull information out of people during the night, despite Robik's warning that mafia might use it against them.
Amiko asked a lot of questions directed to different players during night 1 and IAmRobik was against that, he didn't answer any of them since he didn't want to help mafia get info they can use to get a mislynch.
On February 19 2014 10:35 IAmRobik wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2014 09:16 N1k0 wrote:@Amiko ill try to respond to your post in about 1~2 hours when im able to dedicate enough time. On February 19 2014 06:55 IAmRobik wrote:
Dude...it was nearing the end of the day, but there were people around and I thought they would see the light and vote for the obvious mafia instead of the obvious town. Unfortunately, you had your blinders on because of how he focused on you to change your mind. That's not my fault. That's yours. If you were so sure of Cavalihno being an obvious town why did you vote for me instead of voting Tolkien which was the way you could save the obvious town? especially since you were the last one to vote. I'll respond to this after the night phase if I'm still alive. There's no way I'm discussing anything about anything during the night. Giving mafia an idea of who I think is scummy and townie to enable them to lead a lynch on someone who the majority of the town finds scummy is stupid stupid town play. If you want to talk about the weather, I can do that. If you want me to claim that I'm a cop with a vest and a shot, who can also save people, I can do that as well.
If we're to believe Amiko is mafia, then it makes sense that they killed Robik night 1 because he was encouraging town not to post whereas Amiko was trying to gather information during the night. Most people didn't post reads during the first night, so they valued Robik's advice.
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On February 18 2014 09:38 N1k0 wrote:
I'll try to respond to the doubts you have but ill be brief since im heading out
First about Amiko, i started feeling him to be a red but as the day went on this suspicion went lower and lower, currently i believe him to be town, the reason i think that if he is red he's likely to be godfather is that since he tried to start the conversation which would most likely bring attention to himself which if he were red would make him vulnerable to not only getting lynched but also an investigation (which would not be a problem if he were godfather), but as i said i feel he is more likely to be town that mafia at the moment.
Why Cavalinho and not you, Cavalinho seems way more defensive than you do, and you argue with the town in mind instead of trying to save your own ass, even saying that what good could actually come out of your lynch (tho you could be a really good bluffer), plus i feel like Cavalinho jumped way too fast behind OnceKing's acusation of Amiko, 10 minutes after OnceKing's post looks like he saw an opportunity to get traction behind someone and jumped on it before it could fade away.
I agree with you that my indecisive vote is a really scummy thing to do, but i was just being honest about it, i am not sure of his mafianess but i feel like he is the most likely one to be at the time.
Im heading out now, but ill try to come back before the end of the cycle.
@Amiko
Thanks for directing me to the right post, this was the post I was referring to, specifically the bolded part. Without knowing for certain n1k0's alignment it looks like a solid reason for him to vote Cav, but knowing what we know now, Cav really just found common ground between him and OnceKing and that N1k0 was making shit up to justify his vote.
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@Amiko
That's a good point, but we need to add up all the info we can get from Robik's death to see if we can find something that can help us. Regarding contributing at night, I'm not for a silent night but giving out too much information or saying the wrong things can bite you in the ass later.
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If you read the posts during night 2, you can see that everyone except Beneather(doesn't really count) and OnceKing read Valenius as town. OnceKing already prepared his death bed with the big push on n1k0's lynch. If Valenius is mafia, OnceKing not giving him a town read is another reason he was killed. Valenius gains the most from OnceKing's death since the most influential town player at the time did not explicitly state that he had a town read on Valenius, even though everyone else did.
I'm gonna carefully read through all of day 4 tomorrow and put in my vote, hopefully it's the right one.
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I reread the thread and I'm leaning more towards Amiko being scum. I feel like he's had the more scummy filter and the weakest arguments for me and Valenius being scum and also weaker defenses for himself.
Some of the things that stood out to me were:
N1k0 discouraging cop checks on Amiko despite labeling him as likely to be godfather but still calls him town
Amiko's day 2 play was shady and his hesitant to vote for n1k0 could mean he was waiting to see if he can salvage the situation
Amiko was trying to gather info night 1 for a more educated night kill despite Robik's warning that it might help mafia
Amiko and n1k0 both voted for Cav day 1, nobody really caught on until day 4 so it was a risk worth taking
##Vote Amiko
I'm still willing to change my vote, there's been a few new posts since I reread day 4 so I'll look into those and see if I can get anything to convince me this is the right choice or not.
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I just read through Amiko's day 2 post looking for his reason to lynch n1k0. Here is what he posted before voting for n1k0 in the post after this:
+ Show Spoiler +On February 21 2014 06:28 Amiko wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2014 02:09 Valenius wrote:
Amiko, whos your most likely vote target for today? I still feel it’s very tough to pick between n1k0, Beneather, and Valenius. I have been hoping that one of the three would put up something that swayed me one way or another but it hasn’t happened. At this point, though, I think it’s important that I try to put up a vote because it doesn’t seem reasonable to expect to get anything that will give me a strong read. I don’t expect Beneather to respond in a meaningful way. If Beneather is mafia, there is no real pressure on him to post something. A few people have given him soft town read, but more importantly the votes have come in on someone else ( n1k0). We can point to Beneather’s silence and ask questions to the air, but if it’s not enough to convince us to vote on him, it won’t matter to him. If Beneather is town, I don’t feel his silence is helpful to us. Since he voted to lynch Valenius day 1, I feel he has an obligation to give comments on Valenius’ day 2 comments. Particularly so when Valenius voted for him day 2. This makes me disbelieve the possibility he is a lurking town and prefer the conclusion he is idle town or mafia. In either case, I don’t expect to get anything from him that is likely to give me good reads. So, I feel a vote on Beneather is not that well founded (because of his inactivity) and unlikely to give much information (based on considering him mafia or idle town). So, I think I am deciding between n1k0 and Valentius. n1k0 and Valenius are both responding to posts and pressure, but I am not getting a strong read from either one. Generally, Valenius is more offensive, n1k0 more defensive. I understand feeling less confident in reads after day1 (since mine were wrong as well), but I feel if I were town in n1k0’s situation I would try to more actively make a case who I felt was mafia if only because I knew myself to be town. I think the same thing comes up here from n1k0- Show nested quote +On February 21 2014 05:18 N1k0 wrote:
Right now i'm the likely candidate to be lynched, what do you guys think each possible flip means? I get that this is asking questions, and that’s nice. But I feel that if you are town and you feel like the vote is going to land on you, you should be giving our reads and thoughts on the premise that town will want to consider them after you flip. At least, I think that’s what prompted me to start volunteering a lot more of my thoughts day 1. (To be fair, I don’t think Cavalinho really did that day 1, but I feel like n1k0’s vote has more momentum than his) OK I JUST REFRESHED AND SAW BENEATHER POSTED SO IM GONNA READ THAT :X
The post prior to that, he criticized n1k0 for backpacking on other people's posts
On February 20 2014 12:47 Amiko wrote:
on n1k0
I do feel that n1k0 is backpacking on other people's posts. I somehow missed that he essentially repeated my question to Robik, though (which OnceKing points out). I could see that as pressing someone to answer something they didn't answer previously, but I think I would have written it more like "what abc is asking is xyz".
He doesn't offer any sort of original argument to justify his vote on n1k0, criticizes n1k0 for backpacking, yet he does the same thing with OnceKing's post. He was also very hesitant to vote for n1k0 and does it without providing anything new, he essentially jumped the n1k0 bandwagon after seeing that there's no way for n1k0 to get out of the mess. All of this points to mafia Amiko.
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On February 27 2014 05:48 Amiko wrote:If you believe I am mafia then: 1) You believe I voted on the same person as my mafia partner day 1.2) You believe the mafia further linked themselves when n1k0 backpacked on my readsNo one has offered an adequate reason for this. The only possible reason would be a weird WIFOM play and I can't even come up with a reason mafia would do that on the first day. There is no reason mafia would make that play given how split the votes were, they had plenty of options. n1k0 backpacked onto opinions that I made re: Robik's voting. He further linked us and there is no reason mafia would want to tie themselves together on this. if you believe that mafia had some plan to link themselves for WIFOM reasons, then you are discounting posts where I state that Cavalinho's vote on n1k0 is a towny play here, even if it didn't convince me (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821514) and where I even start to question n1k0 on his play during night 1 before the case is made on him day 2 (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=14#278). 3) You believe I was willing to vote on my mafia teammate although I wouldn't gain anything from it.Me voting on n1k0 doesn't make me appear more town, I even pointed out that I felt there was probably a mafia vote on n1k0 here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=19#363. If he was my teammate I voted for him for no reason. I will write more just I know Valenius is sleeping so this is a start
One situation in which it would be a bad move to vote together is when one of you got lynched on the same day, then the other might be questioned for voting with the mafia. That early on in the game it doesn't really tell much about your alignment. You said it would be suspicious both mafia vote on the same guy, but nobody has really thought much of it until now, when you can't really trust anyone. I know that you voted Cav first, n1k0 likely followed to ensure a lynch, and it was n1k0's vote that broke the 3 way tie. Could n1k0 have voted for LT instead? N1k0 voting for Cav or LT would result in a mislynch, so why Cav instead of LT? Several players expressed having a strong town read on Cav (myself included), so it makes more sense for mafia to go for the person who is less suspicious.
By the time you had voted for n1k0, he already had 3 votes on him, the best way for you to blend in, is to follow the town and vote for n1k0 since it's highly likely he will be lynched. Like I mentioned previously, your justification to vote for n1k0 was basically non-existant and you just jumped on the bandwagon.
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On February 27 2014 06:11 Amiko wrote:
To be clear, theDragoon did "weigh in" only to the extent that he reads me as mafia from it, but he didn't provide any reasoning.
I've made plenty of posts during day 4 pointing to both you and Valenius as mafia and would not like to repeat them.
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@Amiko You said you were pressuring n1k0 during night 1 and here's something that I found a bit suspicious.
3) You voted with me on Cavalinho, but he flipped green. I don't know your read on me currently.
If you think I am town, you should conclude at least two mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia).
If you think I am mafia, you should conclude at least one mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia).
Where do you think mafia would tend to vote?
We know for sure that one mafia voted on Cav, when you ask him if he thinks you're town why do you think at least 2 mafia voted for someone other than Cav? We know there's only 2 mafia or else the game would be over already. This part here sounds like you're trying to pin mafia on anyone other than you two. Why do you ask n1k0 where he thinks mafia would tend to vote? Since we know he's mafia, he'll answer that question pointing to the town players. If you're mafia it makes sense to ask this question to n1k0 since it helps point town towards the wrong people.
Also, I'm pressuring you more than Valenius because there's more evidence right now pointing to you as the mafia, I want you to defend yourself and convince me that you are not mafia. I want to make the right choice here and instead you're redirecting everything being thrown at you towards me.
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On February 27 2014 06:27 Amiko wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2014 06:21 theDragoon wrote:On February 27 2014 05:48 Amiko wrote:If you believe I am mafia then: 1) You believe I voted on the same person as my mafia partner day 1.2) You believe the mafia further linked themselves when n1k0 backpacked on my readsNo one has offered an adequate reason for this. The only possible reason would be a weird WIFOM play and I can't even come up with a reason mafia would do that on the first day. There is no reason mafia would make that play given how split the votes were, they had plenty of options. n1k0 backpacked onto opinions that I made re: Robik's voting. He further linked us and there is no reason mafia would want to tie themselves together on this. if you believe that mafia had some plan to link themselves for WIFOM reasons, then you are discounting posts where I state that Cavalinho's vote on n1k0 is a towny play here, even if it didn't convince me (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821514) and where I even start to question n1k0 on his play during night 1 before the case is made on him day 2 (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=14#278). 3) You believe I was willing to vote on my mafia teammate although I wouldn't gain anything from it.Me voting on n1k0 doesn't make me appear more town, I even pointed out that I felt there was probably a mafia vote on n1k0 here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=19#363. If he was my teammate I voted for him for no reason. I will write more just I know Valenius is sleeping so this is a start One situation in which it would be a bad move to vote together is when one of you got lynched on the same day, then the other might be questioned for voting with the mafia. That early on in the game it doesn't really tell much about your alignment. You said it would be suspicious both mafia vote on the same guy, but nobody has really thought much of it until now, when you can't really trust anyone. I know that you voted Cav first, n1k0 likely followed to ensure a lynch, and it was n1k0's vote that broke the 3 way tie. Could n1k0 have voted for LT instead? N1k0 voting for Cav or LT would result in a mislynch, so why Cav instead of LT? Several players expressed having a strong town read on Cav (myself included), so it makes more sense for mafia to go for the person who is less suspicious. By the time you had voted for n1k0, he already had 3 votes on him, the best way for you to blend in, is to follow the town and vote for n1k0 since it's highly likely he will be lynched. Like I mentioned previously, your justification to vote for n1k0 was basically non-existant and you just jumped on the bandwagon. If n1k0 and I were scum we had 2 votes to move. You think we would risk voting together to lynch a random town (Cavalinho) but not vote together to tie the votes and try to save a mafia?
I expressed my intent to switch my vote to n1k0 if it came down to the wire. The reason I wanted to do that was to bait mafia onto voting for Valenius, I would then switch my vote to n1k0 if that happened and we'd be able to see exactly who the mafia were. My guess is that you two did not want that situation from happening because that would result in 2 votes on Valenius, you and n1k0. Beneather was the wild card and nobody knew where he was going to vote, if he had voted Valenius then n1k0 would still get lynched. The safe play for mafia would be to bus n1k0, considering that most of the town was already on him.
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On February 27 2014 06:53 Amiko wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2014 06:48 theDragoon wrote:
I expressed my intent to switch my vote to n1k0 if it came down to the wire. The reason I wanted to do that was to bait mafia onto voting for Valenius, I would then switch my vote to n1k0 if that happened and we'd be able to see exactly who the mafia were. My guess is that you two did not want that situation from happening because that would result in 2 votes on Valenius, you and n1k0. Beneather was the wild card and nobody knew where he was going to vote, if he had voted Valenius then n1k0 would still get lynched. The safe play for mafia would be to bus n1k0, considering that most of the town was already on him.
1) Where did you express that intent? 2) I think that explanation is something you just made up. You posted this following the vote on n1k0, why wouldn't you explain your mafia bait plan then? If you had that plan, why did you lie to town about your reasoning for voting on Valenius? Show nested quote +On February 22 2014 08:50 theDragoon wrote:
I probably look very suspicious right now, seeing as I’m the only remaining player who didn’t vote N1k0. I was the first person to vote for someone on day 2 and thought I had a really good read on Valenius, up until OnceKing posted his case on N1k0, I was convinced that Valenius was scum since I didn't even notice N1k0's piggybacking. As much as I liked OnceKing's post, my pride took the better of me and I wanted to be right about this, on the slim chance N1k0 flipped green I wanted to be the guy that got it right. As I previously stated I was okay with switching my vote in order to get a majority on N1k0 but that wasn't necessary so I stuck to my guns and hoped that my reads were right.
Read through my filter when Val asks me if I think majority on n1k0 is better than voting on him.
How can I use my bait if I explain it first? Also, that situation did not happen so I didn't want to tell town about it just in case it might be useful later on. For the record I did not lie about staying on Val, I stand by that statement and it's still one of the reasons why I'm tempted to switch onto him. Right now you're looking a lot more scummy than Val so my vote's on you. If you really are town I need you to convince me that Val is mafia, we are so close to winning this and I don't want to make the mistake of voting for you.
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Ugh, Amiko you're looking really scummy but you sound as desperate as I am for wanting to win this game I don't even know what to think anymore.
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EPT
