EPT[I] [S] Shadow Mini Mafia - Page 5
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On January 24 2014 09:11 marvellosity wrote: I'm curious about how his posting HAS been making sense. Not in that I disagree with that statement, but moreso that his posting is "assume I am town, then look at the votes, here are some sensible statements concerning the votes." austin, seems i maybe answered your question about champions game before i read it, lemme know if you want more. He does followup with some stuff on WoS, but I would categorize the majority of his 2 big posts, which were the majority of his posting during N1, to be...vote stuff. And vote stuff working under the assumption that he's town. It's not like we were lynching during the night, but I don't put as much weight on those posts being sensible, because I don't see why a Foolishness of either alignment can't go "assume I'm town, here's some stuff." Again, I think someone, and I guess maybe I should actually do this, can make sensible "assume Foolishness is mafia, here's some vote stuff" posts. Forget actually should do that, I want to see what that post looks like now and whether it reads roughly as sensible. Does...anything in this rambling bit concern you? That his posts are sensible but they're drawing from an assumption and the majority of the sensibleness is just vote talk. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On January 24 2014 09:34 Toadesstern wrote: Two questions for you.I had a townread on him really early on, the rest is adress over clicky! TL;DR: I see no reason for him to be resisting a Sandro lynch as mafia in his position. I do see a reason for him to be resisting a Sandroba lynch as town in his position: Trying to get the best possible lynch he thinks he can get. Sure it could be some super complex strategy into whatever ballsy play but there's no reason to even consider that right now when the simply solution at hand just makes sense and doesn't need your brain to work overtime to somehow make it plausible. I like simple solutions, especially if there's no reason to think otherwise. (1) Do you stand by this even though the actual lynch started 10 minutes before deadline? Sandroba didn't get a third vote until marv with 5 minutes to go, and got hammered with only 4 minutes left. Since you weren't around, even though you have timestamps, I'm not sure you have the full understanding of the speed at which things shifted to sandroba, and so I'm not sure that evaluating how much someone resisted or didn't resist is entirely reliable. (2) At what point do you see Foolishness resisting Sandro's lynch because he wants the best possible lynch from his point of view, i.e., prome? At least for me, I see a mix of comments from Foolishness. I agree that some of his comments are pure "I want the best possible lynch I can get" - + Show Spoiler [from the time of Gonzaw's vote] + On January 23 2014 07:52 Foolishness wrote: Should just do the Promethelax lynch cause that's a lynch for mafia. Sandroba is still iffy On January 23 2014 07:54 Foolishness wrote: I'm probably going to have to anyways so don't worry lol Perhaps I'm just that sure on Promethelax, and in these situations my reads get messed up in my head because of all the pressure. So I default to my strongest read before going on crazy goose chases. But the actual majority of his quotes aren't even that prome is BETTER, it's that the sandro lynch is BAD or the people on it are IMPLICITLY SCUMMY - + Show Spoiler [from same timeframe] + On January 23 2014 07:51 Foolishness wrote: I don't even like the sandroba lynch lol doesn't like sandroba lynch period, even though an afk sand is a scummy sand, sand's absence speaks volumes, etc. On January 23 2014 07:56 Foolishness wrote: There is no way the sandroba lynch is good. Despite sand being one of his scummers, his absence speaking volumes, etc.There's no way this sandroba lynch is good. Also "Back. Caught up and also read Prome. Fine with a prome lynch." - Austin Plus the quote from me on prome without ever mentioning that I've been saying prome or sand for the last hour or so. This is a very, very, very lazy post. If he'd read my posts, he would know that the quote above is not a full summary of my thoughts. On January 23 2014 07:59 Foolishness wrote: This one doesn't say much. He doesn't call prome a good lynch here, doesn't call sand a bad, but now is worried about the specific players swapping. He was townie on me previously, keeps +1ing bits of my posts, but now he's just saying "some players" are joining for "no reason." No specifics. No calling anyone out. The only person he called out was me, and his callout on me is a misrepresentation at best.Well, there are some players who said they were okay with Promethelax but are joining the sandroba vote for no reason. That's everything Foolishness typed in thread during those 10 minutes. I don't know that, looking at his activity from the time the sandro lynch took off, he can really be said to be "trying to get the best possible lynch he can get." He puts 0 effort into convincing anyone to vote Prome at this point, he never says WHY AREN'T YOU VOTING PROME? PROME DID A, B, and C. He just says that Prome is better a couple times, but also just calls the sandro lynch bad, and shadily drops a piece of my posts in there. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On January 24 2014 09:54 marvellosity wrote: Not much. It's night, we lynched scum, and we lynched scum in a way that would throw off some of the reads he had on the game as a whole.I'm going to vaguely sidestep your question austin and ask you what you expect townFool to be doing since the lynch? An updated big reads list before the night ends? Maybe. An updated big reads list in general that isn't heavily heavily heavily based on votes? Maybe. I'll admit, no great answer there. On January 24 2014 09:56 marvellosity wrote: I think it's much easier in this case than you're making it seem? Because he's not painting his filter as townie. He's painting a picture with just the VOTES with him as town. He doesn't have to justify past comments, doesn't have to show why he legitimately thought prome was scum when prome looks townier after the flip, all he has to do is take the votes he's been given and weave them in such a way that him being town presents a couple suspects.Being able to assume you're town (when you're mafia) and make extendedly long posts from that perspective that sound natural isn't as easy as you think. I dunno, I pretty much only seem to make extendedly long posts, so I'm not the best judge here. But I find there to be a distinction between a long post assuming you're town and giving all these reads, and a long post in which you set the votes in such a way that you're town and a couple people shake out suspicious. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I know that's not a full read. I know the N1 posts happened. Just trying to see where your mind is at. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On January 24 2014 10:13 marvellosity wrote: I know. It was something I had been meaning to dredge up again, but I was focused on finding lynch target between prome and sandro and not on poking at Fool. I liked that you did though, I think I posted something that was just a dinky +1.austin, you should check my filter that was effectively the main reason I was campaigning against Fool towards the end of day 1 if you recall... But I hadn't seen you keep poking at it, whereas I continue to see it as a valid question mark on Foolishness's head. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Just...out of the posts he makes once the thing starts, it turns out he's pretty much equally calling the prome lynch better and pooping from space on the sandro lynch, which is still on a dude he thinks is scummy (just less so). The vote swap itself is a new fact that he could be taking into account, but there's no post where he goes, "I was for this, but the way these votes are going, see A and B and C, I feel uncomfortable now about Sandro being mafia." He hints at that, a little, but he doesn't actually vocalize. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On January 24 2014 10:20 marvellosity wrote: I liked his posts bar the sandro thing. I never typed it in thread, but I was thinking that if sandro was actually mafia, Foolishness would look really bad from his early reads post.Given you agreed with my rationale for pushing Foolishness at the time and Fool was a main contender for the lynch (leading for much of it), why on earth were you dismissing Fool and only wanting to lynch between sand and Prome? It wasn't enough to get me to vote him, given all the other crap I was typing calling him town. But once sandro flips, his sandro-related filter looks much much worse. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On January 24 2014 10:25 marvellosity wrote: At the start of all this stuff, during the night, my basic argument is HOLY BALLS WHY ARE PEOPLE PUTTING FOOLISHNESS IN THE DO-NOT-LYNCH LIST WHEN THE SANDRO-RELATED BITS OF HIS FILTER ARE SO BAD?So your basic argument is that the sandro stuff is enough to overrule the rest of his filter? I'm less sure that they overrule the rest of his filter than I am that he should be a topic of conversation, or at least that I want to pester people about this and see their thoughts and file everything away for later. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Right after the lynch, "marv looks better," "no wait, remember Liquid City? You were gone most of D1, came back calling out Node and trying to get votes on him late in the day, node WAS scum, marv jumped on the node wagon with like 30-40 minutes to go, then later jumped off, and was also mafia." So I know you're fully willing to jump on a wagon against a scumbuddy if necessary, and scum sandroba appears to be someone a scum team is happy to sacrifice, given his lack of interest in playing the faction. I do think you're townie for now, but fear not, still got a little paranoia in me. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
IF Foolishness is mafia, then mafia Foolishness and mafia Sandroba were both pushing unknown alignment Promethelax yesterday. That combo means very very very very very very very very very likely that Promethelax is town. That also means that the ONLY people voting not-mafia on D1 were Kitaman and HF. Foolishness alignment unknown. Votes not perfectly telling, but WoS and VE both on Foolishness, and if he were mafia and actually looking like he might be lynched, I would expect not just a Foolish push towards votes on Prome, but a vote swap from the other mafia onto Prome. So the possibilities of the third player in a Foolishness/Sandroba/x team really get chopped down and, to me, look like they consist only of Kita. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I just didn't like taking him off the possible list, nor the people who were just saying "Amg recent posts look townie, Foolishness totes town now gaiz" without seeming to consider his full filter in light of the flip. He's a possibility, not guaranteed red, but I just like seeing more people posting on him and having thoughts based on the full filter. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On January 24 2014 11:41 gonzaw wrote: Sure, funky on both accounts, but then that doesn't get us anywhere.There's also the fact that Foo had 6 votes on him (2nd guy had 3), and he's just calm discussing stuff with people and talking about his sandro read and shit, 10 minutes before deadline. Weird if he's town (like...try to prevent your own lynch dude wtf), but much weirder if he's scum, UNLESS it's some preplanned scum bullshit bus where Foo takes the fall D1 for some reason or some shit. I don't think it's weirder for scum, scum have more control over the lynch because they can work in concert, so regardless of what the plan is, you can actually have a plan in place to hopefully not have yourself get lynched. And while prome only had 3 votes, I had been clear that I wanted prome/sandro over foolishness, and, as things were shaping up, I was going to need to vote prome to hope to have any effect on the lynch. That makes it like...6/4/1 or whatever, meaning another two swaps and everything groovy, and you could guarantee one if any of the Foolishness voters were also scum. I think....I think I should stop going this route and just stick to HEY EVERYBODY HERE'S SOME WEIRD STUFF TALK ABOUT IT. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On January 24 2014 11:48 gonzaw wrote: HF/Toad isn't an option for me right now. I'm firmly townie on what HF posted. ymmvHmm, there is indeed that "Only 1 of VE/Foo is scum, not both" thing I mentioned and everybody ignored last cycle.. ..and VE doesn't really look too good ya know? (greatest understatement of the year). Also, you are missing Holy/Toad from there. Kita OR Toad make sense as Foo scumbuddies. Someone said last cycle that it would make sense for Holy to "waste" his vote nevertheless (and not vote Foo/Prome/etc), so as to not put his replacement in such a bad spot. If Foo is scum, it is possible scumteam told Holy to play it safe. Out of sandro, Foo, and Holy's replacement, it's the replacement that has the most chances of surviving end-game this game as scum. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On January 24 2014 11:54 gonzaw wrote: Sorry, this is the couple steps down the rabbit hole response to ... why scum Foolishness might not be worried about the lynch despite leading late in the game. Not if you just said the only possible 3rd scummy that makes sense is kita. If he's mafia, and he has the third mafia vote on him, and I'm talking about voting prome or sandro, and sandro has 0 votes, then mafia expects the following: Me to vote prome, taking things to 6/4/1 3rd Dude to be able to vote prome, taking things to 5/5/1 HOPEFULLY SOMETHING ELSE I don't think this scenario makes sense, but as far as mafia Foolishness not being uber worried, IF there were another mafia on him, then things until 10 minutes to go LOOKED like the worst the vote would be is 5/5/1. Yeah, I think we should stop | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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