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And he doesn't do a boatload before that point, before all this risen stuff.
He started out wanting to lynch risen because ? and because SS said so. And for all the stuff about risen lynch giving a lot of information, he doesn't look like he's lynching for information. He calls risen 1000000% the lynch and 100% the guy to lynch and calls him scum at times, yet keeps calculating scenarios for when he's town.
He does NOT do this for others. He does NOT calculate scenarios for when Risen is scum.
Just look at his big plan. Here's the reads if Risen is town, here's what we do, here's why people are scummy. If Risen is mafia.....we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.
That's not a super planny plan. And MOST of his people that are scummy is Risen is town are based ENTIRELY in a single vote, and not over their play during the game, and he seems to have no idea what they've done during the game. He put all this effort into a big reads post, and NOT MUCH effort into reading those people's filters beyond a single vote.
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On December 02 2013 09:51 Grackaroni wrote:
A lot of Austin's points are just not true. Cheesecake did use Mocstas filter for reads on people besides BC and he thought Thrawn was scum before the switch. Not boatloads and not early for mocsta's filter.
And I still disagree with you on him calling thrawn scum beforehand. He doesn't call thrawn scummy for not trying to disband a risen lynch, he just asks why he's not. He does say that thrawn is calling you scum and that anyone still calling you scum is scum, but those quotes are hours apart and he's never thrawn focused, he never even points out in his post where he swaps to thrawn that thrawn would fit that bill.
He calls thrawn's entry post "terrible." Not scummy. Never calls thrawn scum there. How is it terrible? Terribly written? Terrible if thrawn is a townie becuase he's coming to wrong conclusions? Calling one post terrible =/= scumread.
The ONLY thing I can see him calling thrawn scum by is "thrawn says grack scum" "people who say grack scum are mafia", but those are hours apart and he never connects the dots to say "thrawn is doing this still, now i like his lynch." He never references it again.
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On December 02 2013 09:56 Holyflare wrote:
Do you not understand why a if risen is town plan would be substantially bigger than an if risen is scum - we'll come to that later plan??
His plan was entirely based off of the thrawn lynch and whether it was scum/scum or town/scum. If it's scum/scum then we're at stage 1 again and thus he'd have to look into more people. If it was town/scum then scum were unlikely to bus thrawn and thus the lynches should be off the thrawn wagon.
That's what I can't understand that nobody is getting at? There is more reason to say risen is town scenarios than doing more research into an if he is scum scenario. Less people to look at if he is town. I don't really agree with this. I think you can plot either AFTER the lynch, and that there wasn't a lot of reason to expect town risen and put ANY work into figuring anything out if risen were town.
Moreover, the "plan" is just lynch anyone that didn't vote thrawn. Basically. It has nothing to do with their play, their filters, their other votes, anything like that. His entire plan revolves around a single vote, and around scum never ever ever ever ever feeling like things were sliding towards thrawn too hard and they had to swap.
Yes, it was an important lynch and scum didn't want thrawn lynched.
But CC's entire plan is "no mafia voted thrawn, let's lynch everyone else, ggggggggggg." That's not...a lot. For all the work he put into coloring and writing that stuff out, his plan is basically "lynch anything that isn't pandain and didn't vote thrawn, no matter what happened the entire rest of the game, and I won't even read their filters to see who did what or what pandain claimed."
It's a super lazy plan. It's a one-dimensional plan.
I just...man I really do not like that plan or what CC has been doing.
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Or what any other mafia said about CC.
Cuz bee tee dubs, look at their interactions with or about CC.
Again:
thrawn finds me scummy because I don't super back up a CC = scum read. But he never gives a read on cc himself.
BC makes no attempt to read him, calls him null when specifically asked about him, and calls him null in his dying reads post.
mocsta, when specifically asked, says he's detached, picks out one thing in cheese's filter and says "there is potential here," and then never mentions cheese again or follows up.
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gg cc, sorry and we can still be scumbuddies but only when one of us is scum.
oats...please vote. pandain, if you ever argue townoats is super contributey and pushy and active again...remember this.
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I have had little time and had to devote a bunch to catching up in another game. I will be somewhat active tomorrow early and midday EST hopefully. I am also masoned with pandain this cycle, but nothing has happened.
Gut read from thinking about things while doing other stuff is that I am overcomplexificating everything, as somewhat usual, and we should lynch someone who didn't vote thrawn. Especially if they mildly fought the lynch. Have to look at those folks harder tomorrow and catch up on the last 2 pages. Yes, I'm not reading those 2 pages right now, sry.
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On December 05 2013 02:54 Grackaroni wrote:
I don't think now is the time to lynch somebody as coin flippy as Alakaslam. What is the preferred time to lynch coin-flippy players?
I'm back for an hour or so. Sorry for today/last night town.
I don't want to vote anyone who voted thrawn today. Like, just basic instinct, whole team shouldn't be on him. Looking for someone who was on risen AND pushed against thrawn AND shows some other funky signs (weird change in BC read to vote him, voting for BC early, etc.). Gonna go looking, and am around to chat. I saw the case on onegu, I see the stuff on pandain.
If BC is mafia and pandain were mafia and BOTH masoned SS D1, I would THINK that there would be some chat in their logs towards the end of the day about mocsta. Either a small amount of trying to get him to lynch non-mocstas, by calling mocsta questionable but not big scum, or by pushing other reads. If not that, there would be some push in the thread from them for non-SS mayor. Right? I don't see 1/3 of the scum team being masoned with a mayoral candidate who suddenly says he's looking at a scumbuddy, and then them do nothing about it.
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Yaya, that's a fine alternative. Just I would expect that if multiple scum are masoned with him, they'd try to sway him away from that. Be it in mason chat or in thread.
Okay. Read through slam. I really, really wish he'd get back to scumhunting. There are ... case-y posts and suspicions on early days. We have a bunch of small filters to go through, but they still have posts you can pick apart. Plox to do. The more you go on and on about how we should lynch you to avoid a mislynch later, or how you're bad, the more you look really really odd. You just saw a townie do that. I haven't seen you do that in other games. Dub teef.
Also, slam, why did you vote BC on D2?
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Onegu's filter starts good, like his back and forth on rayn's alignment, him trying to say rayn is town. Throws a bunch of meh reads out, but he's participating and giving a LOT of reads (SS, yamato, rayn, slam, etc.).
Then he jumps on HF with rayn, first post that looks suspect. He's just piling on, calling everything HF does scummy. Not a fan of big HF post.
Ducks a question about BC from Artanis. Thinks he has BC town, says he'll reread and look harder later.
Big on defending LM. It's odd.
On November 17 2013 03:13 Onegu wrote:
I actually thought BC was slightly townie. His posts about mayor were very townie IMO. There are a few points I am going to bring up and he should answer though. First after people bring up that storrzerg has played in recent newbies he kept attacking people who called storr a newb, I thought he was a bit agressive in doing so but not in a scummy way.
@BC what is the difference between grack trolling and supersoft trolling? And who else is scum besides storr and grack?
I still have to go over his filter but what I remember from just reading thread SS was uber agressive and trolling.
This does not feel like his other reads. He's attacking HF for calling LM scum. He's attacking sharrant with some substantive posts. Granted he's not attacking BC, so his posts on BC would be different, but this read feels a little different compared to his other reads in the game? (See the townread on rayn, where rayn does this and that in other games, is doing this and that here, post post post. Onegu has played with rayn, probably not with BC, but his reasoning seems stronger on other reads than when talking about BC?)
In his first reads post, mocsta is VERY TOWNIE, BC town, very few others are town (storr is lynchbait and skan is town).
He is REALLY defending rayn. Lots of posts on why rayn is town, why HF is wrong in attacking him.
Out of nowhere notes that he was wrong on mocsta and sharrant, says his personal notes say mocsta's shot was terrible but makes him town. Very townie on mocsta until the flip.
During N2 or D3, thrawn is a town read of his. This is out of nowhere. One reason I am scum is because I posted that hard/impossible-to-follow ramble on thrawn.
Posts that he doesn't know why he's not getting flak for a risen unvote? This goes either way but is wonky, I have not seen him be too concerned with his own appearance. If he's town, he recognizes that BC swapped off risen, risen maybe scum. If he's mafia, he knows risen is town and that if he can get called scum for unvoting a dude who looks scummy but will flip town, it will look good for him.
HALF HIS FILTER IS RAYN IS TOWN AND HF IS MAFIA AND HF/LM STUFF AND HE'S CARRYING IT A LONG WAY IF HE'S MAFIA. DOES HE REALLY JUST TUNNEL IN ON THIS AS MAFIA AND USE IT FOR ACTIVITY? THERE'S NOT ANY PARTICULAR REASON TO GIVE IT UP, BUT IT SEEMS CURIOUS THAT HE'S ENGAGED IN THIS SIDE FIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE GAAAME.
I got to his current stuff. He never really gives a read on thrawn. He was gone during that day, for the most part, never touched it. He is okay with a slam lynch today because he can't read slam, but he gave reasons on D1 and early why slam was town.
I would super duper love to lynch Onegu if he wasn't continually dragging the HF/LM stuff around, and if he didn't have so much rayn discussion on D1, really trying to show rayn was town. Also, I didn't link any quotes or anything, sorry, but that's just stream of conciousness running through his filter.
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Pandain, Onegu, Slam, are the only folks not on thrawn that haven't flipped town.
slam looks wonky. onegu looks super wonky at times, very strong townread on mocsta early, nothing much to say about BC, was town on thrawn but it seemed only because I was attacking him and onegu had me scum (which is...not the most terrible-est reason to have a read?), no participation in thrawn lynch due to outside factors, but no followup on thrawn even after death.
Pandain hasn't done anything off the top of my head to ping scumdar, it's perfectly possible we have two vets. I don't really want to lynch him over other candidates given that, if he's town, he complicates things more for scum than other townies. Eventually they do have to start shooting us as long as we can get decent lynches on a scum or two. That seems like a crappy thought though, when a scum or two ends up being almost a whole team.
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Blerg. I'm gonna go get some stuff done and I'll check in later. Not sure how active I'll be before lynch.
slam, BC read, gogogogogogo, why you vote him D2, like him D3, give us some actual stuff please. Don't just type SVENGALI. What posts spoke to you, both ways.
onegu, talk to me about thrawn. Why was he town?
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I actually think some of that stuff goes in Onegu's favor LM, but ... not sure.
I definitely wasn't dying. I guess scum don't care whether risen or rayn or pandain (if town) get lynched, except they'd probably like a pandain lynch if he's town. So his votes aren't needed to do anything.
But if he's scum, and koshi is pushing a big rayn case, and Onegu has been saying all game all game that rayn is town, scumOnegu can sit on koshi 1000000% forever. He doesn't need to move from koshi, he just says koshi continues to be scum, is wrong about rayn, and when rayn flips town, Onegu's vote was not needed to lynch anyone, but looks real nice (Here's the guy I've been calling scum all game, just pushed to lynch the guy I've been calling town all game, SEE GUYS? SEE?). As scum I dunno why he moves his vote or moves it in a funky manner at my request then votes me.
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Right? Onegu has been picking two fights this game. Calling HF scummy and LM townie as part of that, and calling rayn townie and sometimes koshi has looked scummy for going after rayn (Onegu's koshi read seems to fluctuate with koshi's rayn read).
If you're scumOnegu, one of the guys you've been pushing as mafia just exploded into activity to lynch a dude you're calling town, and you KNOW is town. You can freely double down, your Koshi read keeps flopping, but rayn is SUPER OBVIOUS TOWN (to onegu) at this point, and koshi should know that, so Koshi's attempt to lynch him shows 100000% that koshi is mafia and probably that Pandain or Risen is mafia, and Koshi is trying to push votes away.
Bing bang boom. I guess they didn't know whether rayn would get the votes or not, but scumOnegu could have seriously pushed Koshi.
The counterargument is....any Onegu should have pushed Koshi? That scum or town, Koshi pushing rayn = scumkoshi to onegu, and he should have hammered that, trying to save his townreads in BC and rayn and trying to push Koshi as a doodyhead.
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On December 05 2013 07:44 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2013 06:11 Onegu wrote:
I know HF likes to bus, and the other wagons I have town reads on so youre it. Looks like im the only one on HF but not going to vote for a null read at this point. yeh.................................................... great logic there That's from Nov 23. That's not his reason for voting risen over thrawn, right? It hasn't been that many days?
I swear if that D4 lynch was on 11/23 I will flip.
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I think a split is fine to envision. Probably not 3 on, or else just a single doubter could have swung things back. If all off, game too ez?
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Nooooooooooo, ain't no toxic thread.
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No, town slam does stuff, even if people don't understand it. Town slam makes plenty of posts like when I asked about his D3 thoughts and he made everyone countries/states/cities and they fought.
I haven't seen him be this downtrodden and martyry and whatnot, especially once the people he was really fighting with in thread were deadified.
But there's still a couple things in his filter that bug me if he's scum.
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On December 05 2013 07:59 Grackaroni wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2013 07:47 austinmcc wrote:
Right? Onegu has been picking two fights this game. Calling HF scummy and LM townie as part of that, and calling rayn townie and sometimes koshi has looked scummy for going after rayn (Onegu's koshi read seems to fluctuate with koshi's rayn read).
If you're scumOnegu, one of the guys you've been pushing as mafia just exploded into activity to lynch a dude you're calling town, and you KNOW is town. You can freely double down, your Koshi read keeps flopping, but rayn is SUPER OBVIOUS TOWN (to onegu) at this point, and koshi should know that, so Koshi's attempt to lynch him shows 100000% that koshi is mafia and probably that Pandain or Risen is mafia, and Koshi is trying to push votes away.
Bing bang boom. I guess they didn't know whether rayn would get the votes or not, but scumOnegu could have seriously pushed Koshi.
The counterargument is....any Onegu should have pushed Koshi? That scum or town, Koshi pushing rayn = scumkoshi to onegu, and he should have hammered that, trying to save his townreads in BC and rayn and trying to push Koshi as a doodyhead. I think what is more telling is the way that he pushed Koshi. He mostly just sits back and tries to direct Rayn to tunnel people for him instead of posting his own case and putting himself out there against Koshi. Mafia can and, in my opinion, often do have static reads. BC is supposed to be really good at scum and he had pretty much the same reads all game long with the exception of adding on Mig to his scum list on day three for shooting the doctor. I mean, static reads are fine. That's the problem.
Onegu COULD HAVE kept this static read going. He could have HAMMERED koshi for pushing a guy that he knew would flip town (either by lynch or shortly by NK, as rayn was very active). But instead, he's fine dropping koshi and voting me. When he's in the clear to keep his static read AND knows Koshi is about to look very scummy, he's willing to swap his vote.
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EPT
