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TL Mafia LXIII: Time to Die - Page 25

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 01 2013 16:42 GMT
#7178
Reading coag then oats. Just to try and find stuff.

Coag town imo. Doesn't try to get BC elected D1 at all, calls him town, yes, but whatevs on that. He doesn't really try to push anyone off BC on D3 either, calls him town but no effort into saving.

He ... is mostly inactive but gets really, really active when he thinks people are super lying - grack about himself, and then the pandain/SS situation. I actually like that, just gut read is that those are things that might pull in someone not overly paying attention, and he's consistent in getting active whenever someone appears to be lying.

N3, coag randomly says to lynch thrawn/oats if he dies. I HAVE NO IDEA WHY HE SAYS THRAWN HE HASN'T MENTIONED THRAWN AT ALL AND THAT IS VERY CURIOUS!?!?!?!?!? IF HE WAS MAFIA HE KNOWS HE WON'T DIE AND HE DOESN'T WANT THRAWN LYNCHED ETC. ETC. LIKE THERE JUST ISN'T A REASON TO DO THIS AS MAFIA, GIVE A FAKE DEATH THING AND ONE THAT WILL LOOK A LITTLE WONKY?

Then he's cool with risen OR thrawn lynch, wants oats, but doesn't care between the other two. I don't understand why he goes lynch thrawn if I die --> thrawn neutral --> vote thrawn if he's mafia. He doesn't need to, and ... he KNOWS that he's gonna start catching some flak and maybe get lynched soonish. Why does he go wonky like this? If he's trying to protect someone and die in their stead, maybe, but scum doesn't WANT to lose anyone.

Then he's really concerned about why Mig wants to lynch him if Risen flips red. Scum coag knows risen won't flip red, probably doesn't care so much about that? + Show Spoiler +
On November 26 2013 15:10 Coagulation wrote:
what the fuck.

why the fuck would you go after me if risen gets flipped red?


. Yeah, sure, scum dont' want to get lynched or suspicified, but scumcoag knows this doesn't matter. And instead of calling mig out on this read, this statement, whatever, trying to make himself look a little better or get mig to update a read, he doesn't really interact with mig afterward. Imo, less trying to save his mafia skin and more just wanting to know why mig was going to lynch him, legitimate townie question?

On to oatstown!
Fe fi fo fum.
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 01 2013 17:08 GMT
#7181
Oats ain't no mafia based on his D1. Lots of back and forth with mocsta. When I say hiro was my top town read ( hiro = thrawn = mafia), oats get all up in my biznass. He doesn't support hiro's plan, he thinks i'm dumb for finding hiro townie, says hiro is null. LOOK AT HIS POSTS, SCUM PROBABLY DON'T DO THIS? He can say I'm wrong on Hiro, and Hiro's plan scummy (cred later). He can say, oh ya, I love me some hiro (maybe get a scumbuddy a little cred). Instead, he only interacts with ME, and tries to convince me that I am wrong - + Show Spoiler +
On November 15 2013 12:51 Oatsmaster wrote:
Wgere did mocsta go.

Also how the fuck is Hiro your top townread Austin..
On November 15 2013 13:01 Oatsmaster wrote:
I get totally different conclusions than you from his filter Austin.

First post was a joke and probably something pregame. So thats null.
Next post null.

Last post, what happens if scum get shennined into the mayor because scum fucks up? I dunno about you, but I do not feel comfortable with giving scum a scum favored role.
Its much better to just get the top 2 townies into those 2 roles.
On November 15 2013 13:08 Oatsmaster wrote:
Btw austin, its been suggested in the 2 mayor games Ive played so far, i assume its not a new thing. Anyway, its not that bad for scum if a townie gets the pardorner and then gets lynched. Its way worse if a townie gets pardoner and is totally town and will never get lynched.
. That line of posts = muy townie.

Oats is constantly asking for information. Who played with rayn and is he playing similar. Oats thinks risen is paranoid as town, questions rayn when rayn says risen paranoid as both alignments, can rayn show proof?

Oats says pandain looks better for calling LM town, when a scum mason could have "counterclaimed" and tried to throw suspicion. That's a slightly odd thought process in a multi-mason game and with masons of multiple alignments, but I find that a townie way of getting a read.

Goes around yelling that VE doesn't care about lynching scum and is the assassin. Funky thing for mafia to run around saying? Mafia HAS NO DOG IN THE FIGHT, therefore, they want to make sure the mayor doesn't lynch them. VE, who wanted to lynch 800000 townies, is a GREAT mayor for mafia. I don't think mafia want to shed doubt on VE or call his lynches townie, they're cool with his election.

Interacts with thrawn D2, questioning a koshi read. Not a distancing thing if he's scum, like scumoats would have done with scummoc, but just a question and a minor chat. Pesters thrawn, why, if thrawn think BH is town, is he not trying harder to prevent a mislynch? THIS IS TOWN IMO. HE FOUGHTIFIED WITH MOC, NOW WITH THRAWN? TOO MUCH. TOO MANY FITE. MOREOVER, SCUMOATS DOESN'T PICK THIS FIGHT I DON'T THINK.

He also fights with Pandain, when Pandain says BH looks townie for his claiming and unclaiming and urrthang. Oats is ... critically thinking about BH, his alignment, and his interactions? Oats thinks BH looks scummy for the claims, but wonders why Thrawn isn't fighting to save scummyBH. That's a legitimate, townie question to thrawn then, not trying to get BH not-lynched somehow.

Oats also MAEK FITE ON BC when BC gives that schpiel about mocsta fighting with grack, therefore them being scumbuddies. Calls BC scummy D2, THEN DOES NOT VOTE FOR HIM ON D3. You can spin this scummy, but I read it townie. Whereas thrawn went townBC --> scumBC with weak reasoning and part of catching him is seeing that, Oats was scumBC --> notvotingBC. Oats has GREAT reason to vote BC, he pounced on BC's treatment of the meta the hardest.

Oats is town. Don't lynch him. Read his frigging filter in its entirety and look at his interactions with flipped scum and try to give motives for his interacting like he does.

Y'all is being bootyfaces. He is town.

I have NO EARTHLY IDEA why oats wants to lynch SS over BC D3. He was pushing BC somewhat D2, SS gives his whole "I'm a RB and BC can't be scum cuz oats is scum" thing, and I can understand that messing with reads, but I do not see scum oats going so hard at scumbuddies and then swapping away and deciding people are town suddenly when it comes down to it. Why "distance" himself from BC if he's not going to get the cred with a vote?

He defendsish thrawn on D4, despite having some slight words with thrawn D2.

Oats recently has been doling out a couple townreads that make it....difficult to win if the scumteam isn't VA/oats.


OATS HAS SOME REALLY WEIRD VOTES LIKE THE NO-VOTE BC AND THE TRYING TO VOTE RISEN OVER THRAWN. BUT LOOK AT HIS FRIGGIN EARLY GAME. HE'S VERY INTERACTIVE WITH MOCSTA, THRAWN, AND BC, AND GENERALLY CRITICAL OF ALL. HE COULD LYNCH THEM (ESPECIALLY BC), AND RIDE DA CRED TRAIN. BUT HE DOES NOT. AND HE IS ATTACKING SOME VERY GOOD THINGS IMO ---> BC'S CRAP ON MOCSTA/GRACK, HE ATTACK, OTHERS NO ATTACK; THRAWN'S NOT SAVING BH, HE ATTACK WHEN MAFIA DON'T CARE.

I DO NOT LIKE OATS LYNCH.

I LIKE CC LYNCH.

##vote: Mr. Cheesecake
Fe fi fo fum.
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 01 2013 17:11 GMT
#7182
Lunch quick.

Oats, why is CC town/a bad lynch?

Also, what in the things I mention makes coag scummy?
Fe fi fo fum.
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 01 2013 17:11 GMT
#7183
Also, please don't be mafia, I'm feeling good about my oats-reading streak.
Fe fi fo fum.
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 01 2013 17:36 GMT
#7188
Phone.

He doesn't call thrawn scummy out of nowhere for cred. He randomly says to KILL thrawn, then calls him null, then says he's convinced and votes, relatively early IIRC.

Scum coag could maintain a hrawnscum read for cred, but CANNOT get much cred by flopping shoot.

Scum coag could wait and see on thrawn, whether I was gonna push and push and maybe get peeps off risen.

Scum coag could do a whole lot of sensible things, get cred, try to save buddy, just not vote buddy w/o try and save. Instead, he says to kill thrawn if coag dies, then calls him null, then votes him. He basically criss crosses.the two things it seems scum would want to do in this case, does only part of each.

Fe fi fo fum.
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 01 2013 17:39 GMT
#7189
At the very least oats, why in balls does scumoats go from conditionally lynch him for no reason to null to lynch?

It's not a wait and see plan. It's not gonna look good if/when thrawn flips (risen right, thrawn would probably be lynched next day if not d4). But he does that.
Fe fi fo fum.
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 01 2013 18:41 GMT
#7211
You're not getting a vote from me because of activity or trying. Your activity and trying was oddly focused on risen being town when you were so sure of his scumminess half the time and hedging half the time.

You also flopped SUPER hard.on bc for...shaky reasons.
Fe fi fo fum.
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 01 2013 19:01 GMT
#7214
It's not indecisiveness.

He was your towniest vet.

Then, based on a single mocsta post, he was a good lynch.

Your entire read swung 180 on one mocsta post that you said made bc look.bad. but you didn't draw reads on EVERYONE from mocstas filter, and you didn't consider anything else.

Entirely different from indecisive on bc. You were super decisive one way, thrn the other, based.on a couple lines in a filter and apparently nothing more
Fe fi fo fum.
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 01 2013 19:03 GMT
#7215
Afk for few hours, hopefully back before lynch to talk more
Fe fi fo fum.
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 01 2013 21:58 GMT
#7221
Back.

Grack, did you ever....read the thread?
Fe fi fo fum.
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 01 2013 22:03 GMT
#7222
Someone who does NOT think Cheesecake is mafia, please magically appear! Let us converse!

Grack, please magically reappear!

LoneMeow, please magically reappear and talk to me about people other than CC, and why you find/found CC townie!

Oats, please also magically appear and talk to me about why you find/found CC townie!

Yayayayayayayayayayayayayayayaya
Fe fi fo fum.
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 01 2013 22:05 GMT
#7223
And CC talk to me about Vayne!
Fe fi fo fum.
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 01 2013 22:20 GMT
#7227
On December 02 2013 07:12 Holyflare wrote:
What's up! I don't think we should lynch cheesecake today by the way, he has only really been discussed VERY recently and you have had no back and forth, austin you are in agreement (presumably because half the things you said on coag were what I said in my case) on coag and he HAS been discussed and was part of the original lynch plan. I am much more comfortable lynching him over cheesecake unless you can wholeheartedly convince me otherwise.

##Vote Coag
I don't love lynching coag. Your case boils down to (1) BC shifting his coag read around; (2) coag's posting being...lacking; and (3) coag's reads shifting at times in odd ways, as I read it.

I don't think that ANY flipped scum have had particular cool things to say about CC. Will look back over that, but I think that was a point in an earlier post of mine, gonna double check because it's 'portant.

As far as coag's posting, it's not a factor. He can post poopily as both alignments iirc. And he HAS gotten posty at certain times. Yes, oats or whoever has a legit point that the interesting times are the times mafia can post, but look at what coag gets interested in. People lying. He doesn't go nuts about mayors. He doesn't go nuts about risen maybe being town or scum. He doesn't go nuts over these things that are just "maybe this, maybe that, blah blah." He is only posty and interested in things that would, in many cases, lead to found scum. I like that about his filter, and may be entirely bass ackwards, but i DO find that townie here.

As far as his reads, yeah, they shift for little reason. Or he wants to lynch people that he didn't mention. Or whatever. But if coag is MAFIA, then HOLY CRAP WHY WOULD HE DO THAT!?!?!? This isn't thrawn flipping on BC for little/no reason. This is coag straight up saying lynch x or y, I find x null, okay let's lynch x. Can you give me ANY mafia motivation for explicitly just picking up and dropping "reads" for no reason? Because I don't see a mafia agenda being supported, and I see little mafia motivation for making yourself look so wonky, and so I think that while coag may not be super pro-town or helpful with his reads, he's not DOING ANYTHING mafia-ish with them. And that's important to me. It fits the lazy townie picture that I have in my head, and not the lazy mafia picture. At the very least, mafia coag could like...play for mafia. Could not be super changing his reads for no reason. Could be even lurkier.
Fe fi fo fum.
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 01 2013 22:22 GMT
#7228
coag doesn't even have to come back that day though. coag can sit on his risen vote, never swap to thrawn, never post, and when the day ends some sitcom music plays and we all go "Thaaaaaaaaaaat's coag!"

And at the time he swaps, he's the THIRD VOTE on thrawn. He comes over EARLY. He doesn't wait to see if people are around, he doesn't hedge and check thread's temperature, he doesn't argue or drag his feet or anything. He just lumbers over to thrawn for less-than-clearly-specified reasons.
Fe fi fo fum.
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 01 2013 22:38 GMT
#7235
On December 02 2013 07:31 Holyflare wrote:
I think the earlier the vote the more suspicious it is tbh, you just take the post that you wrote at face value, he didn't have to read it, risen had WAY more votes and heck who knew if thrawn would get lynched? It would be suspicious as hell if after saying both were null reads (after saying thrawn should be killed next) he switched back to risen. If I didn't switch risen WOULD have been lynched. Alakaslam moved OFF of thrawn which would have completely secured the kill on him right near the deadline, how do you know whether or not there were mafia shenanigans at present? Coag's posting whether he comes back or not are so mediocre I cannot see how you can get any postive read on him at all.

If you refuse to lynch him I would MUCH rather lynch into slam/onegu/LM, LM looks really odd from mason chats and his switch to CC just now was so fucking strange after JUST making a case on oats it baffles me what he is thinking. He spent time to make a case on someone to then NOT push it any further and sheep someone he thinks is town?
Some of the votes that have popped onto CC ARE odd. He all of a sudden picked up oodles of steam. But imo, a lot of the coag and oats lynches are "these guys have done some scummy things, here they are, look look! they did some scummy stuff one time, lynch lynch lynch." For all the back and forth you think is lacking on CC, have you felt ANY back and forth on coag, or any REAL stuff on oats? I haven't seen that either. Just because they've been semi-railroaded for longer, whether town or scum, doesn't mean there's been even-sided discussion on them.

Coag switches early. He doesn't need to. Thrawn BARELY gets lynched, you are correct, that makes me look somewhat more favorable on the thrawn voters, and is honestly the most townie thing about CC to me. This is not a day to vote a buddy early just to look good later. There is a big fat KP at stake in a game with one or two vets left. That is mega-'portant. You're telling me coag votes before much happens, just to look better, not waiting to see if he's super duper screwing his team over, losing KP, ruining a mislynch.

We don't know at all whether there were mafia shenanigans. But the timing on votes and the...reasoning or whatever is important. Coag gets almost no credit for his thrawn vote, the reason you think mafia would vote thrawn. He never says "Lookie lookie I killed thrawn!" He TELLS SLAM TO VOTE THRAWN. It does not FEEL like a vote for credit. We don't know, but just because it CAN be for credit doesn't mean it is, and based on the timing, his telling slam to lynch thrawn, and his not really bringing either of those up, he looks townie to me.
Fe fi fo fum.
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 01 2013 23:00 GMT
#7241
Look at WHEN coag votes thrawn.

Not look at CC's mentions of thrawn, and WHEN he votes. Also, look at his posts and suspicions on Risen.

Thrawn
+ Show Spoiler +
On November 24 2013 08:10 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
We lynch risen auto tmrw no shenanies.

Then we look into thrawn/oats/koshi. You and me both SS. Although ill prolly F off most of the time just make me proud.
FIRST MENTION. After D3. Auto-lynch risen, then later we look at a bunch of dudes

On November 24 2013 10:06 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 24 2013 10:05 austinmcc wrote:
Why is risen mafia, cheese?

Why is thrawn not mafia, or less likely mafia?


Because SS said so. Never said thrawn aint maf.

Why is thrawn, who you have never mentioned before, mafia? Because SS said so!

I HATE WHEN PEOPLE DO THIS AND THE ONLY OTHER TIME I REALLY RAILED AGAINST IT, A SCUMMY DUDE DID THIS. MATTCHEW SHEEPED MARV'S D1 READ IN SOME GAME WHEN MARV HAD A BAD RECORD WITH D1 VOTING. SS SPENT THE WHOLE GAME WANTING TO LYNCH OATS BECAUSE MAYBE HE BLOCKED SOME KP. SS WAS BLINDED BY THAT FACT, AND IT COLORED HIS READS INCORRECTLY, AND I THINK PEOPLE WHO WANTED TO LYNCH DOWN SS'S LIST WERE SCUMMY BECAUSE SS SPENT A WHILE ARGUING BC TOWN AND OATS SCUM AND HE IS NOT THE PERSON WHOSE LIST WE SHOULD FOLLOW. ANYONE WHO SAYS "FOLLOW SS'S LIST" AND NEVER SAYS "FOLLOW ARTANIS'S LYNCH, THE VIGI WHO WOULD HAVE SHOT 2 MAFIA" IS SILLY SILLY SILLY SILLY SILLY AND SCUMMY.

ALSO ALSO, LOOK AT THE FRIGGING POST. HE'S NEVER SAID ANYTHING ABOUT THRAWN, AND INSTEAD OF PROVIDED WHY THRAWN IS SCUMMY OR NOT, COMPARED TO RISEN, HE JUST SAYS HE HAS NEVER SAID THRAWN ISN'T MAFIA. WHAT IS THAT!?

On November 26 2013 02:33 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Im looking at thrawn more now.

On November 26 2013 02:38 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Thrawn calls grack scum, and risen town. Why the fuck isn't he trying at all to disband this lynch? He knows he's next in line, too.
HE STILL REFUSES TO CALL THRAWN MAFIA. THESE POSTS INVOLVE THRAWN, BUT THERE IS NO READ HERE. ALL HE DOES IS TOSS A SINGLE THING OUT TO SHOW HE'S LOOKING AT THRAWN. HE SHOULD FIND THRAWN'S NOT TRYING TO DISBAND THE LYNCH SCUMMY. BUT HE DOESN'T SAY THAT. HE DOESN'T SAY ANYTHING ABOUT THRAWN'S EARLIER PLAY. NADA.


ONLY LATER DOES CC GO LOOK AT THRAWN. AND HE NEVER USES THRAWN'S FILTER ITSELF, JUST WHAT BC SAYS ABOUT THRAWN. LOOK. HE CHECKS MOCSTA'S FILTER, SAYS NOTHING ABOUT MOCSTA <---> THRAWN. HE CHECKS BC's FILTER, SHOWS HOW THRAWN LOOKS A LITTLE WONKY THERE. NEVER SAYS ANYTHING ABOUT THRAWN'S FILTER.

DOES NOT LOOK GREAT TO ME. HIS ONLY REASON FOR THRAWN BEING MAFIA THAT HE EVER GAVE WAS THAT BC CALLS OUT HIRO/THRAWN BUT NOT OTHER LURKERS. THAT AIN'T DOGSQUAT. IT'S D4. THRAWN HAS POSTED AND DONE STUFF. WHY DOESN'T HE CARE WHAT THRAWN HAS DOOOOONE!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!


Risen
+ Show Spoiler +
On November 24 2013 07:39 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Im also really suspect of koshi, SS, risen. I think that fits nicely.
Whyyyyyyyy? (Also this is three townies, right after BC dies, and scum NEED to lynch town and not mafia in order to preserve KP. This is first mention of risen.

Then the auto-lynch risen because of SS. WHY!? WHY WOULD WE DO THAT!?

On November 24 2013 10:03 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
OMG SUPER IM SORRY I DOUBTED YOU!!!

OATS LOOKS BAD BUT IDC KILL RISEN 10000000%

I start the claim. I'm VT. Not doctor, Sadly.
Start counting. Here, Risen is 10000000% mafia.

At night, after thrawn is lynched, he starts considering Risen as possible town:
On November 26 2013 10:28 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Mig
Onegu
Koshi
Coagulation
Hopeless1der
Grackaroni
Pandain
VayneAuthority
austinmcc
Risen
Mr. Cheesecake
Holyflare
LoneMeow
Alakaslam
Oatsmaster

I'm looking at this if Risen is indeed town.

On November 26 2013 10:29 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Therefore we lynch risen, if town, then lynch from the not-green list and get a 3/5 chance to hit mafia.

On November 26 2013 10:32 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
If Risen is mafia, then i'm looking harder at people who really wanted to switch to thrawn to gain that towncred.

Risen was his D4 lynch. Then he moved to thrawn, but risen was 10000000% mafia. But now, maybe risen is town? In fact, let's figure out the game if risen is town.

UNHOLY FUCKER OF MOTHERS AIN'T NOBODY THINK RISEN IS TOWN RIGHT NOW EXCEPT MAYBE VA. HE JUST TRIED TO KILL HIMSELF WHEN WE NEEDED TO KILL SCUM. WHAT THE DEUCE WHO IN THEIR RIGHT MIND LOOKING AT GAME OBJECTIVELY GOES FROM RISEN HAS TO DIE TO MAYBE RISEN IS TOWNIE FOR TRYING TO GIVE MAFIA MORE KP1?!?!?!?!?!!?

On November 26 2013 12:33 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
In addition: Look at the votecount on D3 with BC/Thrawn/Risen.

both scum were voting for Pandain, and not risen. Risen had his vote tied up in Oats and rayn. Yeah, we're lynching Risen tomorrow 100% no shenannies. Except really no shenannies this time.

Risen is mafia again.

On November 26 2013 14:16 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Mr. Cheesecake's Big List of What The Fuck to Do


1) Risen needs to be lynched tomorrow, cut and dry. If you are advocating against lynching Risen, you are not being pro-town. There is indisputable evidence that Risen is probably mafia. In the event he flips town, the game is all but won due to the information we possess via votecounts and flipped scum associations.

    A) Evidence - Not a single mention of Risen in Mocsta's filter. Albeit short, he never mentions Risen throughout the cycle in which he lived. Thrawn did not want to lynch Risen, nor did BC. This is obvious by the votecounts on Day 3, in which both mafia voted for Pandain rather than Risen. Thrawn blatantly says that he doesn't want to lynch Risen during Day 3.

    B) Evidence - Risen martyr's like a fool. I saw little attempt to direct town in the right direction if he had died. He Promises to make cases before the deadline! Look!

    + Show Spoiler +
    On November 25 2013 08:27 Risen wrote:
    1) at the end of the day I will post actual cases on my top reads. Doing so sooner means you guys might move off of me.

    2) the question you need to ask yourself mig, since you seem to have a hard time with this, is does town risen have that big an ego? The answer is yes. That's what scum risen would say, too, though. I thought people last game were wrong saying risen only gets away with this kind of thing because he's so bad but now I think they're right lol. I thought I did a really good job establishing myself as town the first couple days. Clearly, I did not.


    Risen is not caring about the town, and doesn't make good on his promises. Did you see any giant Risen case? He was about to die, very close. No cases. He was going to die silently.

    C) Evidence - Risen just isn't playing very pro-town in general. I can't exactly say much to this point, but it's true. What evidence is there that Risen is town? I can't find much in this regard. Lynch.


2) In the event Risen flips Town. Follow this List. I believe it to be correct.


Mig ---> Claims 2-shot vigi, seems legit. Very plausible town.
Coagulation ---> Voted Thrawn, if scum would have killed town Risen.
Hopeless1der ---> Both BC and Mocsta were scummy on him. Voted Thrawn.
Grackaroni ---> All 3 scum have pushed him super hard. Could be universal bussing, but likely town. Voted Thrawn.
austinmcc ---> began Thrawn wagon of justice, leading lynch onto scum away from town.
Mr. Cheesecake---> I'm town bitches.
Holyflare ---> Voted Thrawn. Seemed townie to me early on.
LoneMeow ---> Mason. 3 mafia masons? Voted Thrawn last hour when could have killed Risen ez.
Alakaslam ---> Voted Thrawn. Called mafia by Thrawn I think. Least townie of town.
Onegu ---> Voted Risen, ??? What has he done this game I don't remember.
Koshi ---> Led lynch onto Town Rayn, leading away from Town Risen, no big deal. Didn't vote thrawn.
Oatsmaster ---> Scummy in his own right. Declined to vote, not modkilled.
Pandain --> Towniest of the reds. Both scum voted him end of D3. Bus tactics? didn't kill thrawn. was he the vet claim?
VayneAuthority ---> Claims mad hatter, but no proofs of explody bombs. Didnt vote thrawn, but didnt vote Risen either.

3) In the event Risen flips Mafia. Only two mafia left!

We gain a ton of information about the Day 4 and Day 3 lynches. Look at who were voting BC/Thrawn/Risen. Who was NOT voting these people and shying away from them. I think Koshi really fits the bill here, pulling the Risen lynch onto Rayn.

For Day 4, mafia were probably bussing Risen because he was the unanimous lynch. Switching onto Thrawn last minute is a good way to gain towncred by swing voting a mafia (See: Nomination, I lead a lynch on scum away from scum VE, gain all the towncred, lose game cus can't kill people at night). In this case, the associations and voting patterns get a bit harder to decipher, as both candidates were mafia. I'd be looking at people who either didn't care about the lynch target, or were trying to actively call Risen town by virtue of Thrawn being mafia. This lynch gains scum Risen towncred and the ones who lynched Risen towncred. It's hazy, but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

Scum has 1 KP. With daybreak, assuming 1 town dies, game will be at 3 v 11 (14 players left). Assuming Risen flips town + 1 more death, 3 v 9. Mislynch again. 3 v 7. mislynch AGAIN 3 v 5 lylo. This means that IF Risen flips town, we still have two lynches with ALL THAT INFORMATION. Still, a VERY good position for town! If he flips scum, we have more mislynches allotted, but with less direction. Can probably close out the game by being active, and when the first scum of the last two flips.

Game's in the bag, folks. If anyone can dispute this strategy, do so now. Lynch Risen, win game.
He says there's "INDISPUTABLE evidence that RISEN IS PROBABLY MAFIA." WHAT DOES THAT MEEEEEAAAAAN? That means jack. That means nothing. You can't argue that Risen might or might not be mafia, but probably is. Back to you in the studio, Jeanette.

LOOK AT HOW MUCH WORK HE PUTS INTO "WHAT IF RISEN IS TOWN!?" He thought Risen was 1000000% mafia. He thinks Risen is 100% the vote because of Risen's D3 pandain vote. But he's got HUGE text on what to do if Risen is town. WHY IN THE WORLD!? WHY WHY WHY WHY WHY1? IF RISEN FLIPS TOWN DON'T WE FIGURE THAT OUT LATER BUT NOBODY THINKS RISEN IS TOWN?!

On November 26 2013 14:19 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
Just a side note: The list in "Risen Flips Town" scenario is tentative. I didn't do that much analysis, and would rather wait for his flip, as to not waste all the energy/effort on something that wasn't true.
Bee tee dubs, Risen is maybe not town.



I think CC pulls thrawn out of his butt, dodges EVER calling him mafia during a time where mafia NEEDS to keep scumbuddies alive, and only comes on board when a vote or two has been placed, indicating that momentum has started shifting to thrawn.

He comes on board NOT by reading thrawn. NOT by ever calling thrawn scummy. But by pulling up a single BC post that mentions hiro, and working off of that. THIS is his reason for voting. BC made a post that had hiro but not other lurkers. GG THRAWN SCUM LYNCH LYNCH.

No. Not buying it.

I think CC ALSO pulls risen out of his butt, because risen all of a sudden looks bad. CC wants to lynch him because of the SS list, which, see the spoilers, I find scummy. CC wants to lynch him, wants to lynch him, but keeps hedging that maybe he's town and what we should do if he's town. He is making these posts after Risen continues voting himself when we need to reduce mafia KP. Risen ain't town at that point. Ain't nobody seriously arguing that Risen is town, VA will say it and if you ask him way he'll tell you to sit on it six feet sideways and rotate. Nobody logically arguing a case for townRisen though, yet CC keeps on hinting "well if he's town, maybe this?"


His thrawn/risen stuff is booty.
Fe fi fo fum.
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 01 2013 23:04 GMT
#7245
On December 02 2013 08:00 Holyflare wrote:
So someone starts a lot of effort into the game and your first remark is that he is scum lynch with fire?
The timing is curious, given that the last game he was scum in he basically lurked, scum got behind, they made an odd fakeclaimy/bus play, and then he went back to lurking. He almost made it an extra day or two as last scum, except he just sat there trying to leech off his cred from their bus/claim.

He can't do that again. Scum is losing ground, they lost BC, and if the other scummers are folks like thrawn, then they NEED some thread presence. CC all of a sudden picks up when scum need thread presence, and he's ... being active about hypotheticals.

He's reading some tangential filters, calling people scum/mafia based on what scum said. He's rarely looking at x's filter to call x a certain alignment.

It's not that he started putting in effort. It's the timing, it's what the effort was, and it's his thought process behind the effort. It is...very difficult...to call someone 1000000% the lynch and 100% the lynch and then keep talking about what to do if they're town WAY BEFORE THE FLIP. When you never mentioned him (or that other dude that flipped scum), before N3.
Fe fi fo fum.
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 01 2013 23:06 GMT
#7248
On December 02 2013 07:45 Pandain wrote:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=435454&user=Oatsmaster

Mm actions louder then words.

Did he ever actually push Mocsta, Austin. Did he say oh shut your scummy.

He defended thrawn. He never actually voted for BC.

Regardless of cheesecakes alignment, oats is probably scum. And I do think that maybe we shouldn't lynch a guy who voted to lower mafia kp.

Today at least
This is the best anti-oats argument I can see, not voting thrawn and being a little weird.

But I have also never seen oats REALLY push stuff. As town, as mafia (i think), as anything. I don't find it scummy or townie that he'd call someone scum or defend them or whatever and then never be a force to lynch/kill mocsta, save thrawn, whatever.

I DON'T LIKE WRITING THAT BUT MY GUT JUST SAYS THAT OATS IS TOWN AND IT KEEPS BEING KIND OF RIGHT ON HIM SO I DUNNO. I HATE THAT CHEESE VOTED THRAWN BUT IT WASN'T AS EARLY AS COAG AND IT'S...IT'S NEVER ANYTHING ABOUT THRAWN HIMSELF THAT LEADS TO CHEESE VOTING.
Fe fi fo fum.
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 01 2013 23:08 GMT
#7250
On December 02 2013 08:05 Holyflare wrote:
Now compare that to coag, it's the same thing!?!?!??!!?
Coag votes earlier. Coag doesn't care to come up with reasoning, fake or real, but just sheeps my post. Coag starts putting in work when he sees anyone lie, NOT when he scum need someone to step up. Coag doesn't call Risen super duper 100% lynch, but then hedge about his alignment for days.

Coag doesn't try to influence thread. Or make his reads helpful, more or less.

Cheese tries to make his reads helpful, but he's never reading the filters he should and talking about players directly. He's trying to make them helpful at an odd time, and from an odd angle.

Also, coag does tell slam to vote thrawn. It's not much at all, but if slam is town then scumcoag PROBABLY DOESN'T TELL A TOWNIE TO VOTE HIS BUDDY.
Fe fi fo fum.
austinmcc
Profile Joined October 2010
United States6737 Posts
December 01 2013 23:09 GMT
#7251
On December 02 2013 07:03 austinmcc wrote:
Someone who does NOT think Cheesecake is mafia, please magically appear! Let us converse!

Grack, please magically reappear!

LoneMeow, please magically reappear and talk to me about people other than CC, and why you find/found CC townie!

Oats, please also magically appear and talk to me about why you find/found CC townie!

Yayayayayayayayayayayayayayayaya
On December 02 2013 07:05 austinmcc wrote:
And CC talk to me about Vayne!


1 goal down! Come ooonnnnn, other goals!
Fe fi fo fum.
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